So the deal seems to be something like this: Roy Halladay wants to go to a contender, but wants to choose the contender and wants to choose when he goes. In other words, he's setting the market, and has announced as much through his representatives.So those deals where the Jays are getting more than the other teams want to give are pretty much off the table. Rid your mind of Buck Holes or Phil Hughes and start thinking Buck Swope or Phil Coke. Stop thinking of a front line player to solve a need, and think of a marginal and flawed guy who's outlived his time in Triple-A. Start thinking in terms of what the Minnesota Twins got back for Johan Santana. Start rehearsing the following sentence: "At least it's not as bad as the Sirotka trade."
Groan.
Look, we don't begrudge Halladay exerting his no-trade clause to put himself into the best situation possible for him and Brandi and the kids and whatever. But we've got to wonder why his reps felt it was necessary to add this extra wrinkle to the trade talks right before the Jays head to the Winter Meetings. Did they feel as though the Jays weren't doing their level best to get Halladay out of town? Did they think that this might spur talks? Or even add to the Jays leverage?
It has crossed our mind that this might actually work to help encourage suitors to step up. But mostly, it just seems like this isn't going to end well.
A Personal Note to Doc
And as far as Doc is concerned: We love you, man. We love you like we've never loved another Blue Jay player. You're amazing, and we can't express to you how much you added to our enjoyment of the Jays over the past decade. You're the best.
Now take your shit, and get the fuck out. Take your beard and your Ikea bookcases and your shitty Robert Palmer cd's and leave. We'll give you the TV stand and the pint glasses and all of the stuff that we bought together. You can have the plants and the cat and crock pot. We don't care.
Just get out. Don't make this any harder than it needs to be.
61 comments:
I long for the days when my thoughts weren't dominated by The Roy Halladay Sweepstakes, utimately sweeping in a bout of The Roy Halladay Depression. Remember those days?
Threw in a dusty old Tom Cochrane CD the other day, and when the song "Good Times" came on, I immediately thought of Roy.
I don't know what I'm gonna do when the Jays trade Doc.
Leverage is not the key to the return and never has been. It's supply and demand.
A team can't hold back on its offer thinking that it has the Jays right where it wants them leverage wise, because a competitor will step in and pay the incremental $$ and get Halladay on the cheap.
If you read Griffin's account of the trade going back to last summer, it sounds like a fucked up venture from both Ricciardi and Beeston. Ricciardi made some bullshit statements and then Beeston turned the whole thing into a fool's errand.
They deserve to lose out if they're going to run the team like a Liberal leadership convention.
Further, the baseline for a deal has never been "what we can get in the offseason" or "what we can get at the deadline", all deals are being measured against the value of one more season of Doc plus two top 35 draft picks.
Melancholy aside, I tend to believe that this little bit of agent-speak is really a push as far as the potential return.
The Yankees/Red Sox/whoever else (Angels? Phillies? Dodgers?) have to step in and make their best offers now, or bid each other up contract-wise next offseason.
The thing that doesn't sit well with me, though, is that (as Tao alluded to) this breakup is getting ugly. That's not what I wanted for us, Roy.
Beeston couldn't have handled the Halladay situation any worse. I too have the feeling that this is going to turn out poorly eg.
Halladay to the Red Sox for Jason Varitek and Tim Wakefield.
Leverage is inherently a part of the supply chain. I don't know how you can talk about supply and demand and not recognize leverage as part of the equation.
Teams know that the Jays can only shop Doc to so many places, and now they know that they only have so much time to do it. Meaning there are only so many offers to be had.
And seriously: Y'all can shove your fucking compensatory draft picks up your ass. I don't give a fuck about the sandwich picks or what high school 1B/LHP we can get with the 32nd pick in June of 2011.
Save that fucking shit for your fucking Front Office Manager games.
That Griffin piece is so full of shit. Please direct me to the story or article in which JP claimed Roy demanded a trade. What a piece of shit.
Fuck prospect porn. Give me the real thing.
I was pissed off for a while about this too, but really -- if Halladay was going to be traded at the Winter Meetings, then he's still going to be traded at the Winter Meetings, and this isn't going to affect what the Jays get back for him at that point. If February rolls around and he still hasn't been traded, then yeah, this is going to fuck shit up pretty bad, but we'll cross that bridge when we come to it.
Geez, calm down. Why is everyone treating this like it is a big deal?
As long as there is more than one team seriously in the hunt we have leverage. Roy's timeline is fairly inconsequential. The Yankees, Red Sox and others aren't going to do this dance for months anyways. At some point one will go another route and then we lose some leverage.
Second, I don't blame Roy one bit. The trade deadline last year was a mess. Why even bother risking that again? Why risk being in the centre of a circus again, especially coming into your free agency?
I wonder what Santa will think of all of the cursing coming out of these commentors? Lifebuoy soap for everyone.
THIS IS ALL J.P. RICCIARDI'S FAULT.
@Shortwaveboy
We're gonna put someone's eye out with those words!
I'm not even going to touch Griff's interpetation of events - which he presents as fucking fact.
A more ironic headline I've yet to see.
I think we're all aware of how Griffin is viewed in these parts, but if there is a kernel of truth to his version, Beeston fucked up for the sake of fucking with Ricciardi.
I certainly don't know if there's any truth to it, but it has the stink of truthiness.
It would appear that during the summer of 2008, Ricciardi had more in common with Stephane Dion than either man realized.
And now that I've beaten that analogy to death, my work here is done.
It seemed fairly apparent to me that Ricciardi's power to make important decisions was taken away even before the season started. I don't doubt that Ricciardi couldn't have made a Halladay deal even if he wanted to.
Buck Holes!
This is the worst of our many humiliations.
You stop being so dramatic! You have no idea what I'm going through! I hate you all!!
Dramatic = double posting.
Leverage is gained when options are diminished. I don't the options for the Jays are diminished. A number of teams are still going to be competing with each for Doc's services. If anything, there's more certainty around the process now. It's going to happen now or never.
If we're going to have an auction, let's have a defined timeline for bids.
Also, all you post-95 Jays fans can leave with Doc. You're dragging me down.
Why 95, Gil? Real Jays fans are pre-Skydome ya know. What is so magical about 1995?
You really want 4,000 somber know-it-alls sitting in the 500s, keeping score, and never so much as clapping for their team -- cause, you know, cheering and doing the wave is soo lame.
The team is in trouble and you're playing the "real fans" card? Your timing could be better. I don't think you have to worry about fans leaving with or without Doc.
This move by Doc confirms it - he does not want to deal with the trade bullshit during the season. Obviously he was thrown off by the trade talk this year, and he wants to avoid that all together.
Besides, trading him at the deadline would not net very much in return anyway.
"real fans card"
That's BS. I can't say that children of the '80s that only care about Doc and not the shirt drag me down with their incessant whining?
If divorce affects the children/fans most of all, these comments are the proof. Now we have resorted to fighting amongst ourselves over who is a real fan. Nobody wants this to happen.
Leverage does matter in any negotiation but whatever leverage was lost by assigning a date by which the trade must happen by has been negated by that very set date. When there is a timeline, there is leverage.
@Anon 12:49: You can say whatever you like, but I have always bristled at the idea there is some ideal fan who is faithful and true while the rest are just bandwagon jumpers.
I guess I started following the Jays in the late 80s. My favorite Jay for a long time was Tom "the Terminator" Henke. My favorite sporting memory is celebrating the 1992 World Series at my favorite college bar. Nevertheless, if someone told me they only became fans of the Jays because they loved Roger Clemens and followed him to Toronto, I wouldn't feel the need to mock them.
Guys like Tao probably disagree with me, but that's fine. I come here for the fine writing -- not because we have to agree on everything.
I have nothing against Gil and the rest, but this team has bigger problems then when someone decided to buy a hat, jersey, or a flex pack. The pressure from TFC is only going to get stronger and Toronto sports fans seem to have used up all their patience on the Leafs.
Let's just stop and think for a second. Passion asside, it may actually be better for the Jays as a team to trade Roy Halladay now, even if he wasn't forcing the Jays hand to trade him or lose him to free agency.
We only have to look to the teams own history and a player very pertinant to this very web site. People tend to forget, but Dave Stieb was just as good as Roy Halladay up until the age of 32. Take a look at what Stieb did at 33 and beyond:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/stiebda01.shtml
First off, Darren, you underestimate the Toronto baseball fan (you don't even live here, so how exactly do you know anything at all about this splendid metropolis?)
The Toronto Blue Jays fan is a loyal, desperate individual, who clings to hope like no other. That hope will not be in vain.
I have deliberately constructed this media circus. Firstly, I used JP to measure the interest that GM's had/have in Doc, and in turn used the publicity to drum up "get Doc" movements among other club's desperate, loyal fan-bases. Secondly, I waited until the off-season, and made it known that Doc "must" be traded, in order to expand the market. And thirdly, I will use my pulchritudinous, robust, sharp, smart, smooth, spruce and stately qualities to seduce the other organizations into giving up the stars of the future.
It is a classic bait and hook, with the added element of my handsome seduction.
There are few humans that posses the ability to accomplish such a complicated and sexy business move, but rest assured, young, desperate, loyal followers, Handsome Tony will make them pay. Oh yes, they will pay big, for my Doc, and I will be laughing about this over Almas caviar and Krug Clos du Mesnil by January.
"At least it's not as bad as the Sirotka trade."
Halladay to the Yankees for anything is almost as bad as Ruth to the Yankees for cash.
I feel much better now that Handsome Tony has weighed in. Classic.
For those too lazy to click on the link, here is a comparison of Halladay and Stieb prior to his 33 birthday:
Win-Loses
Stieb 166-123
Halladay 148-76
ERA
Stieb 3.34
Halladay 3.43
WHIP
Stieb 1.23
Halladay 1.20
Complete Games
Stieb 101
Halladay 49
Shut Outs
Stieb 30
Halladay 15
Oh Handsome Tony. You always have the cure to my mid-afternoon blues.
Two key stats, in my view, that are missing there:
K/9
Stieb: 5.3
Halladay: 6.6
K/BB
Stieb: 1.66
Halladay: 3.29
Some of the counting stats that Stieb got in those days are a function of the difference in the manner in which pitchers were managed, and just how awful the Blue Jays were.
Also, I have yet to see anyone quantify the relative merits of their facial hair.
I think that the Stieb versus Halladay debate is an interesting one.
Still loving the Tony Viner despite the fact that he knows where I live -- or don't live, went to the pulchritudinous well on consecutive days, and seems utterly oblivious to the attendance trends that emerged last summer.
Now, will someone please direct me to the kool-aid stand?
Could someone explain to me why this is such a terrible thing. Sure there are some bad aspects to this but I can think of a few good things that come out of this move.
Halladay says that once spring training starts his no-trade clause comes into play no matter what. So teams that want to have Halladay have to pony up for a full year of him instead of waiting to the trade deadline and using him as a playoff-run booster. His value is worth more now than it will be then so that gives the Jays a leg up.
Also, by moving his own personal trade deadline up by about 5 or 6 months it also moves the high pressure trade deadline talks back by about the same - to coincidentally a time when all 30 gm's are going to be camped out in the same hotel for a week.
Sure we lose a bit of leverage by being forced to make a deal before ST but I think that would be more than negated by having Doc being the biggest trade talk at the winter meetings at a time when his trade stock is going to be highest for us.
Have I missed something?
Andrew
While the abuse Stieb took in his career may be the result of his early demise, don't you wish the Jays would have traded him after his season at 32 yeas of age.
While I like to think of Halladay as the perfect pitching specimen, with perfect mechanics, and zero risk of injury, truth be told he is a deminishing return at this stage of his career, the Jays are probably selling high on Halladay.
Sadly this could have all been avoided if they moved Doc after the 08 season when he had 2 years left on the contract. If they had said that 09/10 were rebuilding years and we'd be competitive by 2011 I think we would have been ok with that. Especially with Doc getting a return of something like what the Rangers got for Tex, instead of being lucky enough to get one marginal prospect or a draft pick.
They had to know what the payroll would be in 2010 and that if it wasn't high enough Doc was as good as gone. So the real question should be why did the Jays wait to trade him till the deadline/now instead of being proactive and moving him after his second place finish in the Cy to Cliff Lee.
TONY VINER IS THE TRUTH.
Tao, I see your K/9 and K/BB and raise you a NO-HITTER. (I'm really fucking pissed off with Halladay right now.)
I get the feeling after a little flurry (Halladay and Overbay) of activity, we're headed for years of Stand Pat part deux.
I just hope it doesn't take eight years for our Fernandez/McGriff orgasm.
Darren,
I'm not a "real fans" type of guy. You're misreading my comments. I'm not passing judgement on next generation fans, just stating that the ones that can't separate Doc from the Jersey are bringing me down.
And when I say they're bringing me down, well I'm taking literary license. But just stop whining, everyone. (me too)
I'm going to keep whining until Doc is traded.
So with the Rays trading for Shoppach, what's this mean for Dioner Navarro? I'm aware of the crap year he had last year, but it looks like he went through some serious shit the last couple of years. Same with Russel J Martin, I'm into the buy low approach.
Complete Games
Stieb 101
Halladay 49
Thank you Jays early 80s Pen. Now warming up: Roy Lee Jackson and Joey McLaughlin. Hmmm, maybe we'll just leave Stieb out there to finish.
I'm just waiting for one little singular Blue Jay move that is actually positive, that is not just a gap fill player, or a minor league depth guy, but actually a possible piece of the future.
Nothing this team has done since the Anthoupolus hiring has me excited for the future. Sure the scouts hiring is good, that is until you read comments from other GM's suggesting that too many scouts is more harmfull than it helps because all you get is constant disagreements on player evaluations.
@Gil. No worries, dude. That's the problem with internet forums: you never get to appreciate the nuance and subtlety of communication.
Loving the Jays ain't fun. It's no easier when they are owned by a company that I kinda hate as well.
I guess we sports fans have to find something to grab onto and ignore all reasonably arguments to the contrary. The problem with the Jays, in my opinion, is there is very little to embrace. It's like cheering for the HBO Canada Fall line-up.
Going into 2010, I guess I am cheering for continued progress from Hill, Lind, and Snider. Any fans who want to jump on-board, buy a ticket, buy a hat...have a good one. I am going to take a nap.
Stieb had 101 complete games before his 33rd birthday? What a stud!
I have a new respect for him now ...
And Stieb had 2 complete games after his 33 birthday.
It's a good thing that Halladay is demanding a trade prior to his 33 birthday.
Doc is FINISHED!!!!1
Hate to burst your bubble from the first comment Gil, but the whole idea behind supply and demand is leverage. (i.e. when supply is high and demand is low the price goes down because suppliers have no leverage). Therefore you have a contradiction. Of course I only bring this up because I am a nit picky bastard.
While this *might* not hurt the Blue Jays in moving Halladay, it certainly doesn't help. At the very least, the statement pisses off all the fans - look at all the comments on this entry - and creates a PR problem in the short-term, and a potential nightmare in the future.
I am a bit of a prospect hound, but I agree with Tao that compensatory draft picks are very overrated. First, teams have caught on to the trick, and you don't see a situation like the Moneyball A's anymore, with someone hoarding four draft picks. And second, even a player with a year of minor league experience is more valuable than a similarly ranked prospect. More opportunities to scout vs. better competition, plus they are X months ahead in the development curve, and a known quantity.
This was all a plan to drum up quality offers. I have everything under control. If nobody offers a great package, I will initiate "Plan B", where I approve a $120MM payroll for 2010 and go for it with Doc on the roster.
Look, I am a very handsome individual, and my business savvy is unmatched. Can you afford not to trust a handsome devil like me?
This whole story will be a distant, unhappy memory in September, when we are 2 games out of the wildcard, after trading Doc. My personal scouting abilities are unmatched, and my personal projects (Dopirak, Ruiz and McCoy) will prove my erudite baseball prowess.
Trust me, it will all work out to the benefit of this organization.
Sincerely,
Handsome Tony Viner
"Hate to burst your bubble from the first comment Gil, but the whole idea behind supply and demand is leverage. (i.e. when supply is high and demand is low the price goes down because suppliers have no leverage). "
I wasn't specific enough then.
The Jays' leverage lies in the fact that there is only one Doc and there are multiple teams interested in acquiring him (allegedly). The Jays leverage is not lessened imho by Doc's declaration. If anything, it's increased because all teams are alerted to the fact that it's now or never (only the Yankees will be able to sign Doc as a free agent - no one else will outbid them). More teams with a chance to acquire Doc long term = more/better offers on the table during the winter meetings.
Gil, your logic is resplendent, and indeed, correct. Do the brains match the physique, as is the case with my handsome self?
Sincerely,
Handsome Tony Viner
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_AxikaaVnbMg/R9HznZDekBI/AAAAAAAAAkU/gy97-XhioT0/s400/SCTV-0844.JPG
That's me on the left with Jimmy Buffet.
Hey, Handsome Tony, somewhere along the line, someone should have said this to Dane Cook and they didn't, but I am going to say it to you: "It's over. You wore it out. Fuck off."
Best wishes with the iPhone and the other plans you have to ream your customers, but your shtick is old. Drop in August 2010 and see how your flock yucks it up.
You can't get over sixty posts in a thread without the fuck offs. It is written.
You can't get over sixty posts in a thread without the fuck offs. It is written.
Even the trolls here are of the refined and creative kind. This sure isn't your DJF crowd.
I couldn't agree more. As painful as it will be to see Halladay leave, management has truly decided they are too pussy to make a run at winning. With "The Eternal Building Process" in full flight, it's time to credit The Doc with all he's done for us, calmly show him the door and wish greener pastures upon him.
SHOW US HIS VALUE!! BRING US THE PROSPECTS!! WE WANT THE BOUNTY TO GET EXCITED ABOUT!!!
Yeah, as much I admire Tony Viner's plan for AL East relevance, Handsome Tony still has yet to outline how it will be implemented. I imagine bench boss and line-up misanthrope Cito would reply to Handsome Tony's plan with the following riposte:
-'What?! And how much World Series gold do you have on yo cracker ass? What Tony, I can't hear your reply in this wall of silence. Take your plan and file it under fiction yo, cuz while The Cito is here he calls and makes the shots, not some narcissistic paper pusher. The Cito don't tell Tony how to do his job, how come Tony thinks he can The Cito to do his? Look, The Cito don't care if the plan is written on double-bonded ecru paper and has been rendered into a 37 page power point presentation. Pull this shit again on me Tony and imma gonna pop a cap in yo ass!'
I mean that's pretty much how I think Cito would reply to Handsome Tony's plan.
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