Where It All Changed - A Prelude to the Season's End

You'll have to pardon the gratuitous Grateful Dead reference, but what a long strange trip the season's been. And somehow, it's still going.

We're working up to a piece that wraps the season up into a few pithy paragraphs, which we hope to have for you by the end of this week. But given our recent fits of delinquency on the blog, we figured we'd pull out a couple of the lesser strands from that piece for their own post. It's a little like watching the deleted scenes before you see the movie.

The most notable thing about looking back this season is that it's hard to find the beginning point of this year versus the closure of last year. In all likelihood, it went back before pitchers and catchers reported, and we suppose you could figure that the calendar truly flipped when the Jays named John Farrell as their manager on October 25th. But truth be told, we're still not sure after almost a full season what Farrell is as a manager, or what he brings to the mix. A strong jaw and a willingness to abide baserunning outs? But what more than that? We're still trying to figure that cat out.

As we look back, we keep settling on that day back in January, when Vernon Wells was traded out of town. We can still picture the restaurant where we had just walked in for a meal with Mrs. Tao, and the feverish exchange of tweets and messages as the details came to the surface. (Also, the indulgence of the missus as we lost our mind and ignored her for the entire meal. Sorries.) We suspect that the magnitude of that transaction has been lost somewhat over the past few months, to a point where we even saw tweets and heard JaysTalk calls which wondered about how good a trade it was, usually after a bad outing by Frank Francisco or a good night by Mike Napoli.

(Hopefully, Mike Wilner could back us up on that. We listened to A LOT of JaysTalk this year. It wasn't always like an exchange of discourse among gentleman and scholars at the Acropolis.)

But with almost 10 months' distance since the trade was announced, it's still worth remembering what a momentous change for the franchise that single transaction represented. It wasn't just about riding the team of a middling bat (though that helped) and a heap of cash (that was pretty nice as well). It wasn't just about opening up the middle of the diamond to a younger player with more upside, nor was it about reworking the middle of the lineup. The point is that a franchise with Vernon Wells as it's begrudging centrepiece does not make the deal for Colby Rasmus, and the Jays don't take the hyper-aggressive approach to drafting amateurs and signing international free agents this year if they are still trying to find a dance partner for the Wells Jubilee.

There's a touch of unease in personifying all that has gone right with this franchise around Wells, because we fear that he's been made to be more of a villain than he deserves. Many have filled in their own notion of how Vernon's intangible presence might have detracted from the team, but we wouldn't suggest that we know what occurs behind the closed doors of the Jays' clubhouse. Though it's hard to conceive of Wells' presence in the middle of the raucous, Delta House atmosphere that we've seen in the dugout as young stars with out-sized personalities made their way into the lineup.

Regardless, the $25 million per annum that the Jays would have had to pay out to him through the end of the 2014 season would have cast such a shadow over all other moves that they made that the team and its wunderkind general manager wouldn't have had the flexibility to take the calculated risks that they have since.

There's going to come a day when we write the book on how it all came together for the next great Toronto Blue Jays championship team. We have a notion that the Wells trade will not only provide the jumping off point for that narrative, but that it will weave its way through many of the other strands. The elasticity of the Jays' plan going forward depended on that single transaction.

If we aren't close then we can't be far

I've always resisted the notion that the Blue Jays should be looking to trade off prospects in exchange for potentially costly veterans for the sake of "appearances" and adding a few wins here and there.... but let's be honest. Since about 1993, it would have been mostly for appearances.

The Jays have not been contenders, and those are moves that only contenders should really make. Going one step further, the Jays system, quite frankly, has never really been strong enough to make the strategy legitimate.

Here in the 2011 season, at least one of those points has changed. The minor league system might never have been stronger than it is today, with names like Lawrie, d'Arnaud, Gose, McGuire, etc "cluttering" up many a top prospect list no matter the publication. Alex Anthopoulos' healthy obsession with stockpiling talent and spending (yes, spending) on amateur talent, whether via draft or international signings, has quite clearly begun to pay off handsomely with the Blue Jays prospect list the envy of every franchise, save for perhaps one or two.

And it hasn't been by chance that the organization has found it's way here. If the much maligned Ricciardian Years can be stereotyped with big splashy free agent signings, the AA Era is stamped with smart internal investment and building from the ground up. With more than a few ninja trades mixed in, of course. But this stockpiling of talent ain't for nothin', as the GM himself is quite fond of saying that not all the prospects will wear Blue Jay uniforms; the clear implication being that some will be used as trade chips to fill holes and complete the roster on the slow march towards contention.

Which begs the question..... are we there yet? Are the Toronto Blue Jays close enough to being a championship calibre ballclub that now is the time to start cashing in some of those prospect chips?

If you've been following me on The Twitter (and if you haven't.... you probably aren't missing much - how's that for self-promotion?), you'll notice I've been openly musing about the possibility of the Jays dangling Travis d'Arnaud. It's not that I want to see TdA moved; far from it. But..... IF the Jays decide that Arencibia is their guy for the forseeable future, and IF the club is indeed close enough to contention that it makes sense to add the beef now... then, you know, isn't that the right call?

And I'm only using d'Arnaud as an example. What about Kyle Drabek? Deck McGuire? Henderson Alvarez? A year ago, we'd all shudder at the thought of dealing any piece of our precious collection of prospect porn.... but now? The franchise has depth. Losing d'Arnaud would hurt, but a good enough JP Arencibia with a charging AJ Jimenez (or Carlos Perez, or whomever) means you're dealing from a position of strength. And if that's the cost for acquiring (insert impact major league player at a position of need here), then that's the right call.

Do you know who trades coveted "name" prospects for star major leaguers? The Philadelphia Phillies and the Boston Red Sox do. Do you know who the Blue Jays are trying to emulate in terms of success at the major league level? Obvious is obvious.

Are the Jays close enough to start making those kinds of trades? I can't say that for sure, but we'll know what Alex Anthopoulos thinks the answer to that question is soon enough.

Yunel plays the game the Blue Jays way

So Alex Anthopoulos went off the radar and locked up Yunel for (potentially) the next four seasons at $5M per, huh? Did not see that coming, which means I probably should have.

The news is fresh off the wire as of this posting, so I haven't yet had time to fully wrap my mind around it..... but I don't think I'm going to overthink this one.

I like watching Yunel Escobar play baseball. Five million dollars per season for an all-star calibre player at a position like shortstop is not a lot of money (relatively speaking). So what's not to like?

I suppose there are going to be a lot of reasons put out there in the days (hours?) ahead. With any player, there are worries that with a big contract comes reduced motivation. Bobby Cox and The Braves Way disciples will probably overstate the significance of this factor when applied to Yunel (too flashy! He dogs it! No grit!).

Others will wonder if Yunel will hold up at short for the duration of the contract, and if he doesn't, well.... maybe $5M per doesn't look as good for a second baseman with average pop and speed. I don't know. But at two years guaranteed and two seasons at club option, does that even matter?

A few other points:

* What does the signing say about the Jays thoughts on the development of Adeiny Hechavarria and his potential as a long-term fit at the major league level? He's only 22, but a career minor league OPS in the low .600's isn't.... promising, let's say.

* ... or does it speak more to the club's thoughts on Aaron Hill, who has team options hanging in the balance?

* Par for the course with Anthopoulos, but the "out of nowhere" factor with this signing reinforces my belief that we could see a potentially significant shuffling of the deck as the season plays out and the deadline approaches.

And once again, I'll mention that I like watching Yunel Escobar play baseball. I grew up idolizing Tony Fernandez flash his glove and play shortstop with flair, and Yunel is most definitely not shy about making his swag known.

I'm sure many folks smarter than this guy will provide many defensible reasons as to why this is not a good deal for the Jays, but in the meantime, I'll just enjoy watching the guy play.

The Obligation

"We also have to be responsible and try to win as many games as we can."

..... and that quote, my friends, remains the sticking point for me concerning this whole sordid (well, not "sordid", but you get the point) affair whereby Travis Snider apparently starts over in AAA.

As I've mentioned more than once on these pages, in the blogging game, if you aren't first you're last.... and this post is shaping up to be no exception. I'll probably end up parroting the theme of Griff's piece (linked above) and rip off my own comment found below Tao's post.... which is sure to be much more reasonable and thought out than this self-entitled whining. But that goes without saying.

But aaaaanyway.... how can Alex Anthopoulos state a responsibility to put the most competitive team possible on the field in one breath... but unabashedly admit Jo-Jo Reyes has a major league job simply because he's out of options? And furthermore, if we can make the leap and assume that Jo-Jo is one of the five best starting options in the organization (personally, I can't)... is that really the goal now? I mean, really? To scratch out as many wins possible, development be damned?

It can't be. I'll disagree with Griffin in stating that the Jays braintrust cannot possibly be sizing up the division and calling an audible - building off! Win now on! One look at the roster construction tells us this is most certainly not a club built to win now. All due respect, but Corey Patterson, Juan Rivera, Jose Molina, Jayson Nix, and yes, John McDonald, are not players at the stage of their career who should be leaned upon for everyday contributions on championship clubs.

And quite frankly, friends, it's that roster construction that troubles me somewhat - neither built to win now nor designed to break in future cornerstones. I mean - how many new players are learning at the major league level just exactly what it takes to win? JP Arencibia catching 3 out of every 5 games? Kyle Drabek taking his regular rotation turn? Do we really believe that David Cooper is here to stay?

Early to be sure - not yet May! - but a season scraping the .500 level with a roster largely consisting of players that we don't expect to be contributors on that next great Blue Jays team wasn't what energized this fanbase the winter past.

I'm fairly confident the tune will change in a month or six weeks time, but until then.... ugh.

Quick hitters
My last comment maligning Jo-Jo Reyes, who I'm sure is a proper and decent fellow being tarred and feathered for reasons beyond his control: does anyone believe he will be part of the five man rotation in 2012 and beyond? And if not..... what exactly are the Jays so loathe to lose by trying to slip him through waivers? A potential long relief arm? At the expense of developing someone who will?

If Vegas is such a death knell for young pitchers that the club would have Zach Stewart repeat AA to work out the last few kinks.... how does sending an emotionally shattered Brett Cecil to hitters heaven make the most sense?

Anyone else nerding out with a nightly review of MiLB boxscores for the Jays affiliates as I am? I just can't wait until the short season clubs get underway. No, you're lame. Leave me alone.

Speaking of which, Travis Snider is 3 for 3 in his Vegas "debut" as I type this. Miss you, Lunchbox.

Ripping off my own tweets now, but Jose Bautista is must-see TV. I wish there was a PVR setting for "record all JoBau plate appearances".

So Frank Francisco is eventually going to be the full-time closer, right?

And Marc Rzepczynski is already the new Scott Downs, yes? We're all good with that now? (I am.)

Middle relief is criminally underrated; innings 6 and 7 aren't sexy and those dudes get no love. But I got you, Shawn Camp and Casey Janssen.

One last note on the main post above - don't sweat me. I'm still a believer. I just like to let out some bitch every now and again. Until next week!

It's a shame about Vern

Pt I: It didn't have to end this way (but we're all kinda' glad that it did)
At the end of the day, it was always about the money. Vernon Wells ranks at or near the top of every major offensive category on the Blue Jays career leaders list - and yeah, they're mostly counting stats based on longevity, but isn't that the point? - and yet, his relationship with the fans has always been...... strained. To say the least.

I mean, who gives themself the nickname "Boo"? A pretty good player living under the shadow of a ridiculous (as seen now) 7 yr/$126M deal handed out at the apex of MLB contract insanity, that's who.

That's megastar money for (just) a pretty good ballplayer who found himself in the right place at the right time. But with that money came expectations that could never be met and shoes ol' Boo could never fill. You always got the feeling Wells was a better fit in a supporting role, but that was never going to be an option once ink met paper. $126M players can't hide in the background, and every struggle was magnified. Every roll-over on an outside fastball or pop-up (GODDAMNIT!!) on a decent offspeed pitch brought on the chorus of hate as a result.

And now we won't have Vernon to kick around anymore. I'm not going to lie to you, I'll miss him.

Pt II: .... but it's OK to be happy about this
Am I going to miss the remaining $80+M over the next 4 seasons? Not so much. Being perfectly honest, I don't really care what Wells made. I never have. But it was/is (to the Angels, now) an albatross contract that had to affect the front-0ffice thinking with regards to roster construction, despite the constant proclaim of an open-ended budget.

And now? No more. If nothing else, it lets us dream (which is everything here). It's behind the subscriber wall, but I'll share a line from Keith Law's analysis of the deal on ESPN regarding the final outcome and ramifications from a Blue Jays perspective:

"They could become very good, very fast."

Feels good to be on the other side of one of these, doesn't it?

Pt III: And what of the new guys? Where do they fit?
Mike Napoli is an offensive-minded catcher whose best attribute is his power, and his worst? Fringey defence. Sound familiar? Somewhere, JP Arencibia nods his head silently. That said, don't be so quick to write-off the Jays' feelings about their young catcher or play up the team's apparent hesitation to let JPA play.

I'm of the opinion that Napoli will find AB's at 1B and DH in addition to his catching duties (think 3 times a week or so), with Arencibia likely seeing slightly-above platoon level at-bats. It just seems the franchise has invested too much in the young catcher in terms of coaching (Wakamatsu) and PR ("the kid has to play") to let him waste away on the bench, and there's nothing left for the AAA MVP to prove in Vegas. So play he will.

Juan Rivera? 4th outfielder..... if he makes the trip north out of Spring Training still a Blue Jay. I'm not convinced.

Pt IV: Where do we go from here?
If I have a concern for the 2011 Blue Jays (just one?), it's this: who are these guys?

Are we close to having all the pieces of the collective puzzle known as The Plan within the system? Or does this magnificent salary mulligan mean more blockbusters are on the horizon - be it this season or next winter? Something even more than a multi-year deal for Jose Bautista? Trades taking on salary? Players in free agency? Extensions for more young stars (Snider, Morrow....)?

(and by the way, if/when Bautista signs on long-term with the club - which I believe he now will - we should get everyone's opinion on record to prevent or justify the tired "I told you so" meme three years down the road. Me? I liked locking up Wells at the time. I know, I know....)

Pt V: Alex Anthopoulos terrifies me
In a good way. Silent Assassin, indeed.

Pt VI: From an LAA perspective
What. The. Fuck?

.... and in the end, it's a great deal for the Blue Jays franchise and a fresh start for Vernon. Remind me to never again bemoan the lack of "blockbuster" moves from the team during the traditional transactional periods. Goddamn, AA. Wow.

...Or maybe your expectations

I'll say this about the "fuck this offseason" crowd....they have an arguable point. Perhaps not a defensible point per se, and certainly not one I'm ready to concede, but they do have a point.

Now the disclaimer, as always, remains that three months of offseason remain, and you never know (radio silence!) when the other shoe will drop with this cloak & dagger regime. But it does seem faiiiirly safe to assume that we likely won't see the "impact" move many of us (read: me) predicted we'd see in an effort to firm up the roster on the path to contention.

Sure, there was the big trade - Marcum for Lawrie - but that was quite obviously not a move designed to strengthen the team now. It was a deal Anthopoulos felt he had to make for a player long-coveted (just like Ricciardi & Mencherson, natch) towards contention, uh...sometime? And there's no arguing that smartly offering arbitration to free agents Downs, Buck, Olivo, and Gregg will ultimately benefit the organization through the stockpiling of draft picks. But again - when?

When will these moves position the major league roster as contenders? Certainly not with an eye toward 2011...but 2012? 2013? Is there a set timeline - beyond the now-standard "the players will tell us when we're ready" fall-back?

I believe there to be. But as usual, AA ain't tellin'. Except with regards to 2011. It's not setting up to be the year we (yes - we!) bring the Evil EmpireS to their knees. And as per usual - with us - it's hurry up and wait. Be patient.

But that's the rub, isn't it? Was there really ever another way? Could it have possibly gone differently this offseason without pulling an Orioles and throwing money at middling veterans in a vain attempt to not finish last? What other outcomes could we reasonably - reasonably - have expected?

Cliff Lee, Carl Crawford, and Jayson Werth were never going to sign here.

Justin Upton was never going to be traded here (or anywhere).

Zack Greinke - apparently - was never going to be a Blue Jay.

Now now, angry commenters, lest I be accused of having, uh, intimate relationships with Alex Anthopoulos, like many a blogger have been accused of this winter, there are scenarios which make a whole lot of sense to me which very likely will never be considered.

For example, let's talk about Adrian Beltre. He's still out there. He's theoretically been rejected by many of the winter's largest suitors, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim California United States of America notwithstanding. He wants a shit-tonne of money and 4 or 5 years to be sure - but what impact free agent - this offseason, or next, or the one after that - won't? And if "the money will be there when we need it", and the club is poised to make a push in the next two (or three, even) seasons..... why not make that free-agent play now? Check off that gaping hole at third base on next season's to-do list this offseason?

And it's not even that I'm pro-Beltre, but it's this certain logic of not spending that I'm trying to unravel.

As usual, we wait. And that's not half bad. This team is fun. It's a good ballclub. The organization, as a whole, is now walking a straight-line path towards respectability, and maybe even envy.

That's the part we have to wait out.

Just how close?

Coming off the heels of the Jays big 16-2 drubbing (and forgetting the extra-innings heartbreaker), I was left pondering this question:

Just how close are the Toronto Blue Jays to contending in the loaded AL East?

Is 2011 a pipedream? 2012 more realistic? Are we wrong to discount any serious wildcard run this season?

Let's dispatch the 2010 question first - a full 10 back with 40 games left to play leaves no room for error. None. That said, we're all fans here, so what the hell. Let's just call it a dream. Not an impossible dream (but close), but a dream nonetheless. So what of 2011?

Is it as easy as saying with the continued maturation of the pitching staff, a return to norms for Lind and Hill, and the development of young talent such as Snider and Arencibia....the Jays are instantly a part of the equation? Much as I'd love to blindly say "fuck and yes, that's all it will take", consider the following:

...the impending loss of John Buck. Look (to borrow a phrase from HTV), we're all excited about JP Arencibia and what he can do given a full season of starter at-bats, but John Buck has been providing all-star calibre play behind (or more importantly, at) the plate for the Jays. It's not wrong to be excited about JPA - not by any stretch - but it would be foolish to think that, in 2011, he'll provide more value to the team than the veteran already in place.

I don't think it's wrong to cash in on the career year of John Buck and collect the comp picks - it's all part of The Plan - but for next season, at least, it will likely be a half-step backwards.

...changes afoot in the bullpen. It's been a luxury Jays fans have come to take for granted - the team always seems to string together a pen that provides above average performance, and hasn't been a major concern for a number of seasons. But remove two of the constants in those bullpens - Scott Downs and Jason Frasor - and what do we have? Instead of looking to fill one, maybe two spots in the spring as has become custom, who are the locks for next season under the "everybody out" scenario? Shawn Camp? David Purcey? Casey Janssen? OK, those are nice pieces, but none provide "the hammer" and there are still spots to fill. I have confidence the team will again roll out a surprisingly strong group, but it's hard to ignore the fact that many a season has been derailed by a bad 'pen.

...holes on the corners. I'm not prepared to have the "one more year of Lyle" conversation - largely because I don't know which side of the fence I'm prepared to lean on - but let's assume his Toronto tenure is over. Who fits? Is it as easy as plugging in Adam Lind? Because if that's the answer, there has to be a backup plan in place juuuust in case he turns out to be a complete butcher around the bag. Just sayin'. And what of 3B? It's doubtful that AA is looking at E5 as one of his "core guys", and no serious contender is going to run Johnny Mac out at the position more than a few times a month.

...coaching staff turnover. With Cito, you know what you're going to get. Focusing on the good (let's play nice today), it's a team that will mash the shit out of baseballs, on-base percentage be damned. One thing about this club - they're rarely out of games with this power. Will the philosophy change under the new regime? Will there be a season of transformational flux from a new philosophy? And will the new dude purge the existing staff, bringing in his own Gary Denbo (nightmares) and sweeping MLB-unknown Bruce Walton under the rug while helping Butterfield pack his bags for Baltimore?

Not going to lie to you, friends, these thoughts are already beginning to cause me anxiety. And yes, I realize this isn't normal. It's probably best that I just sit back and enjoy the remaining 40 games on the schedule.

(At least the 20 or so I'll get to watch, anyway. )

And quickly...
Is it wrong that I'm enjoying the flavor that Jesse Carlson is bringing to an otherwise vanilla Blue Jays bullpen? Fist pumps, baby.

Apart from JPA, are there any September callups worth getting excited about? Maybe Brad Emaus? A surprise New Hampshire stick like Thames, Loewen, or Mastroianni? A Hechavarria sighting? Seems unlikely, but....Drabek?

If you don't keep up with John Lott, you should. He's carved out quite a niche keeping dibs on the Jays' minor league system, and his features in the Post are always worth a read.

Hey, y'know that killer August schedule facing AL East rivals that many thought would be the Jays undoing, causing the season to close on a sour note? 7-4 as of this writing vs the division, with series yet to come against the Yankees and Rays. No matter the outcome, Armageddon it was not.

Depth in the formula

"The focus for us is to have a club that will have a sustained run of contention."

Boom. That's the money quote, right there. And now that it's seemingly starting to come together for our (yeah, "our"...you heard me, Wilner!) Toronto Blue Jays, it all seems so simple, doesn't it?

Build your big league club and organizational depth around young, cost-controlled pitching, and the rest will take care of itself. Dedicate assets to it. Make it a priority. You can never have enough. There is no such thing as a surplus. All the cliches apply.

....and they apply because they're all true. There's no such thing as a 5-man rotation. Not for 162 games, anyway. In a world where even the casual fan understands the implications of the phrase "Tommy John surgery", a steady supply of starting arms is no longer simply a luxury, it's a requirement. And if you happen to be so lucky as to escape the season relatively unscathed - you're probably the only one. Which means rival GM's will come calling, and you can name your price.

Friends, this is why I'm high on the future of the club. Under Anthopoulos, the Jays are well on their way to being there. Inheriting Ricciardi-era arms such as Marcum, Romero, and Cecil, Anthopoulos has added to the team's core strength by dealing for emerging ace Brandon Morrow and top prospect Kyle Drabek, and dedicating his first draft to further bolstering the arms race.

And just when you think you've got the near-future rotation all figured out (Marcum, Romero, Cecil, Morrow, Drabek...with maybe a spring push by Stewart), along comes Marc Rzepczynski tossing his hat (along with bowling-ball sinkers and well-placed offspeed pitches) into the ring.

So, yeah. I think AA might have it figured out. Mix in a core of young (and young-ish) hitters smashing the ball all over the park, a few well-timed and reasonably played upside trades (Wallace vs Gose), a blatant rip-job here and there (Morrow! Escobar!), a renewed dedication to scouting in general (fuck slot!) and Latin America specifically (Adeiny!)....and we just might be onto something here. Whether that "something" is the playoffs remains to be seen, but I'm optimistic.

Given the way the team is playing and the organization as a whole is improving...how can you not be?

More on RZep...
I stand firm in my belief that Kyle Drabek will be in the team's rotation plans next season - whether it's right outta' spring or a month or two in (arb clock...), which means that, barring trade or injury, there's no room in the rotation for Rzepczynski.

But he absolutely has to figure into the club's major-league plans next season, doesn't he? Would it be an egregious waste of his talents to assume a middle relief/spot start role - ie: a rich man's Brian Tallet? The value of such a pitcher can often go wildly overlooked - they're the dudes in the pen you don't notice unless they're getting lit up - and Rzep (though over-qualified) would fit the bill nicely.

Nice problem to have, isn't it?

...Less on JPA
How quickly the tides have turned. After following up one of the better big league debuts in, oh, history with a couple of 0'fers, seems JP Arencibia has earned back-up duties under the watchful eye of Cito The Manager Clarence.

Then again, it's tough to argue with lineup decisions when the club is playing as they are. So I'll hold off. For now.

Process over Outcome

The trade is a few days old now and beaten to a bloody pulp by the blogosphere....but dammit - I want a turn! So here it is....

The deal is a win for the Blue Jays. Not because Yunel Escobar appears to be flashy as fuck fielding the ball at short. Not because, discounting this season, he was viewed as an elite bat at the position. Not because he gets on base and not because he flashes power. And the trade is definitely not a win because Alex Anthopoulos has rid the team of any shortcomings in the "old" shortstop's game.

It's a win for the organization because the logic behind the deal trumps the end result - good, bad, or otherwise - and Anthopoulos continues to prove he's unafraid of taking on the risks necessary to execute his plan. Er, I mean, The Plan.

(...and yes, I'm cringing at opening the door to references to the "5-year plan" oft-attributed (but never actually proven) to JP Ricciardi. So just don't, OK?)

Anthopoulos has always - from day 1 on the job - maintained he was much more interested in targeting elite talent over quantity of talent. Those players come with a degree of built-in risk, but it's the only way for the Jays to compete with the wallets of the Yankees and the Red Sox. Flipping a stopgap shortstop solution, no matter how well he's performed, for a cost-controlled player at the same position with a potential to be great is a risk you have to take.

I was one of those guys openly questioning the wisdom behind signing Alex Gonzalez in the preseason. I found it fairly unlikely he'd accumulate any sort of trade value and didn't see the upside contribution over the team's current version of Alex Gonzalez (John McDonald). Yeah, I was wrong there. Shocker! Raise your hand if, on April 1, you thought the Jays might parlay Gonzalez and 2 non-elite (more later) prospects for a potential all-star calibre shortstop. Now put your hand down, you god-damned liar.

Here's what the Jays really gave up:

* A veteran shortstop playing to the absolute peak of his abilities, who very likely was in his final year with the team, and if not, almost certainly in his final productive year with the team. No offense to Gonzalez, who was a total pro and exceeded any and all expectations, but if you think he's capable of carrying this performance through 2011.....well, I don't know what to tell ya'. Other than to say "he isn't". (But I've been wrong before. Have I mentioned that?)

* A left-handed reliever with amazing minor league stats (K machine!) and an even more amazing human interest angle (he's tiny!).....who scouts regularly insist has middle relief upside.

* A scrappy, gritty, speedy little Reed Johnson of the infield, who might have a decent career as a major league utility player.

All of the above are worthy assets. But all of the above would fall under the label of quantity. Quantity can be accumulated. Quality is more difficult to come by. And if Gonzalez maintains his pace and leads the Braves to the playoffs - a hearty pat on the back to him, because that just was not going to happen with the Jays. If Collins exceeds expectations and thrives in the late innings, and Pastornicky develops into an everyday sparkplug of a player? The cost of doing business.

One last question I've been kicking around in my head, admittedly almost immediately on hearing the announcement - what of Adeiny Hechavarria? I'll tell you what of Adeiny Hechavarria. It's fantastic for the development of Adeiny Hechavarria. Let's say you're a big bonus Cuban shortstop flailing away in the minor leagues, but looking at a depth chart with names like Alex Gonzalez and Mike McCoy ahead of you. Neither of whom the organization has any real investment in.

Now let's say you're the same Cuban shortstop who sees another Cuban shortstop ahead of you on that depth chart, out to prove he is indeed the elite major league player he was on the verge of becoming. Under which scenario do you think a player would push to get the most out of his talents?

Smart guy, that Anthopoulos.

Does it matter?

With the flurry of change surrounding our Toronto Blue Jays and the wheels set firmly in motion towards implementation of The Plan, you'd think local scribes and fairweather fans alike would be able to see past the inevitable growing pains surrounding a young, talented ballclub.

You'd also think yours truly would have enough sense to know that was never going to be the case. I thought we were good. I thought we were all going to accept the fact that an organizational step forward would undoubtedly be offset by an inevitable preliminary step back? But no, some folks just feel the incessant need to remind us that rough days are ahead.

Ladies and gentlemen: "Your last place Toronto Blue Jays."

And let's not forget the familiar refrain of non-fans everywhere who can't see past their own ass:

The Jays are the new Expos. Relocation!

You know, Merry Christmas and Happy New Year....but fuck off, really. You wanted direction, we have direction. You wanted change, we most certainly have seen change. For better or worse. If we can allow ourselves to take the words of the Anthopoulos-led front office at face value, then it's change for the better.

(As an aside, I'm not convinced the Orioles are going to be drastically improved. "Power hitting" Garret Atkins couldn't even hold his shit down in Coors these last few seasons. Now he's in the AL East. New closer Mike Gonzalez has really only ever held that job down for the powerhouse Pittsburgh Pirates. And if Kevin Millwood is the answer, then I certainly don't know the question. Oh, and the Jays/Expos talk? Not even worth discussing.)

So, back to the question at hand:

4th place or 5th place in 2010....does it even matter?

Movin' on (A.D.)

We're an original bunch, aren't we? We all wrote the same melodramatic posts bemoaning our fates, cursing the baseball gods that took Roy Halladay from us. Here now in the aftermath of the deal, we're all writing the post-mortems. I wouldn't blame you if you tuned out right about now, but I do have a point to make.

I'm a bigger fan of the Toronto Blue Jays today than I was a week ago.

Whaaaa? I'm a bigger fan of the Doc-less Jays than of the team fronted by the biggest fucking ace in major league baseball? Well, in a manner of speaking, yeah. I guess I am.

Seems impossible, but it's true. Hell, I probably led the brigade dreading the inevitable transaction - where do you think the "I don't know what I'm gonna do if the Jays trade Doc" tag came from? And that tag is like, a season and a half old. I've been sweating this forever, man. But here we are, on the other side of Armageddon, and I'm OK. We're all OK. And if you're not - kindly feel free to jump the fuck off the train.

This is my team. This is our team. This is the team we all want to see return to glory. It was never going to be easy - with or without Doc. I'm starting to believe in The Plan. When it comes right down to it, we really have no choice but to believe, or risk turning into an even more cynical group of miserable pricks. But no, really, I'm starting to come around. I think I just might be buying what Anthopoulos is selling. Building. Adding to the core. Young players growing - and staying - together.

70 wins in 2010 or not, sign me up for a plate of that. It beats the shit out of 80 wins with Mencherson (God bless 'em) and Millar.

101 Reasons for Offseason Optimism: Vernon Wells. That's right.
Vernon Wells. You heard me.

Look (sorry HTV), forget about the goddamned contract. Wrap all of your thoughts on that matter into a tidy little ball and toss it in the G. It's not going anywhere, he's never going to exercise the opt-out (so save your booing), and it is what it is.

I think Vernon is going to bounce back. Our boy eyebleaf bankrolls that cheerleading brigade, and friends, I'm down. I had originally planned an entire post around this, but, uh, on further investigation, I don't really have a tonne of substance to back my belief. It's just a feeling I have.

Do I think we'll see a monster season, like the one the Jays based his contract on (you would have signed it too, so just stop)? No. Do I think we'll see a reasonable facsimile - a definite improvement over last season's debacle (too strong?)? Yeah, I do. Think .280/.340/.470. An OPS just north of .800. Is that worth $20M per? No, probably not, but Vern seems like a proud guy. He'll bounce back.

Building!

That's it? That's your theory?

So at some point in his Declaration of Principles call over the weekend, Alex Anthopoulos noted that he wanted to build (NOT re-build, goddamnit!) the Jays with trades, the draft, free agents, international signings, and minor league free agents. That's Alex the Ant's plan. Beautifully fucking illustrated.

Actually, that's not really a plan. It's more of a regurgitation of a primer. (Someone was boning up the night before his exam...er, presser.)

And it stands in stark opposition to the previous regime, who, if they didn't acquire players in one of the ways listed above, must have just waited for players to fall from the sky through the roof of the Dome.

Whatever they think that they're doing, one thing seemed pretty clear from all of this jibber-jabber: There's no great sack of money that will be thrown at the team this year to address any of the problems or gaps that they have, and there won't be any additional money available to paper over the mistake that is Vernon Wells' contract. What we, as Jays fans, are being told is to be patient and that someday, someway, maybe there will be a competitive team in town.

This clearly isn't the mythical J.P. Five Year Plan. It's the newfangled Alex Ant indefinite plan, The Eternal Building Process in which the team will continue to set aside a serious run at the Wild Card or (god forbid) the AL East crown until such a time as they feel comfortable making a run. Because they wouldn't want to embarrass themselves, would they?

We used to pity Pirates fans, because it seemed like keeping the faith with the Bucs was a Sisyphean chore. It kinda feels like they might be pitying us by the end of this.

Picking through the entrails to find little shards of happiness
Look, don't get us wrong. It's not that we're rooting for Alex the Ant to fail. And it's not that we're totally pessimistic. After all, it sounds as though the team is in the midst of looking for a replacement for Cito Gaston, which should be Job #1 if they ever want to be anything in this league.

And to be honest, we can actually understand if the organization didn't necessarily want to can Cito after the player revolt, if only to head off an ongoing series of such clubhouse calamities every time the active roster members had their feelings hurt or their needs not appropriately attended to.

We're holding in our mind's eye a vision, and that vision is of the day in the early season this year where Cito steps aside and pulls the ripcord on his golden parachute. Maybe even before the season starts.

What a pleasant thought.

Talking 'bout rumours
It was weird that within 24 hours of our floating Chris Snyder's name out there as a possible target, there were rumours that he would be coming to Toronto, followed by assurances that he and his gimpy back were not to be exchanged for Lyle Overbay.

We're not sure if we have any powers to make these things happen...but if we do, here goes: We think the Jays should make a run at Lance Berkman, David Wright and Felix Hernandez. Please please pretty please.

Alex the Builder

I suppose I would quibble with the semantics of it all.

"....Anthopoulos characterizes the Blue Jays as a team that's building, rather than rebuilding.

"I think when people talk about a rebuild, it would be tearing down a team and trading away numbers of players. I don't know that we have that necessarily," he said. "I think we have a lot of good young players, I just don't think we have enough. I think we need to continue to add to those players."

If you can't extend your franchise cornerstone (Halladay), and are looking to trade away key veteran offensive pieces (Overbay), while building around the young controllable players currently on your roster (Lind, Snider, Hill)....well my friends, that right there is a rebuild.

And what did we expect, really?

A magic bullet enabling the club to extend Doc for 3/$75 and gain a commitment from Rogers to pursue top flight free agents? That was never, ever going to happen, even if we had coaxed ourselves into maybe believing something of the sort could happen. And by "coaxed ourselves", I of course mean "bought into the Beest's hype". That's our bad.

And so it begins. I've often used the "I don't know what I'm gonna do if the Jays trade Doc" tag, but I suppose I'm about to find out. And really, that's the franchise's only play. My guess is the team approached Halladay and tip-toed around the idea of an extension, and were flatly denied. Pure speculation on my part (what am I, a journalist?), but it would seem to make sense in the context of this quote:

As for Halladay specifically, while Anthopoulos said the 2003 American League Cy Young award winner is one of a handful of players he would be reluctant to trade, he said the 32-year-old has made it clear he is not interested in tying himself to Toronto after his contract ends following the 2010 season.

"He's probably one of the greatest if not the greatest Blue Jay to ever put on the uniform," the GM said. "But he wants to win and really, at this time, we were a 75-win team last year.

"I think he's stated that his timeline for winning and ours may not mesh and may not match and for us right now," he added. "Roy's position is to wait and see what kind of a club we have in 2010, see what we can do from a win/loss standpoint. We respect that and we understand that."

So that's that. That's where we stand. We wanted to know, and now - mercifully - we do. The team is going to sell off any and all expendable parts that don't fit into the plan of building a winner down the line, and the Jays are going to go young.

It's a step up from where we were last season, when we slugged through 162 games of, uh, whatever the hell that was.

There's a lot to be excited about when you listen to AA's vision for the team. He speaks of building a model organization. He talks of Toronto becoming a preferred destination for scouts and front office types. He talks of becoming an organization that can be up there with the "Anaheims, the Chicagos, and the Bostons" (read between the lines - fuck the Yankees). He wants to build a franchise that develops championship talent and supplements it with key free agent pieces.

That's all good stuff. That's vision. It's a remarkable turnaround from where the organization currently stands.

The proof will be in the proverbial pudding, of course, but if that's what it takes - rather than chasing and throwing ridiculous contracts at the Jason Bays and John Lackeys of this year's FA class - then I can get on board. So bring it on.

Still, I don't know what I'm gonna do when the Jays trade Doc.

Vintage, classic, epic, etc

Loathe as I am to admit it, I've always been an "expect the worst/hope for the best" kind of guy (I'm sure you couldn't tell). It's a crippling affliction that has no doubt caused me immeasurable & unnecessary stress as I prepare myself for the worst.

Such was the case as I sat down to watch what could have been, perhaps, the last appearance of Doc in the powder blues. Nobody wears it better. Nobody will ever wear it better.

Halladay's last home start of the year was a hallmark Halladay effort - scattering baserunners but slamming the door when necessary, and ultimately earning the ol' CGSO. I mean, holy shit, is there anyone else in the organization even capable of doing that?

As I've mentioned in the past, I kinda sorta maybe think the Jays might actually spend a little this offseason in the hopes the fanbase will forget the shitshow that is 2009. But here's the thing, friends: would Doc even sign an extension at this point? Would you?

It was back to the cliche train in the post-game comments:

"I would think what every player would want is to win where you came up and to win where you spent all your time," Halladay said. "I think that would be the ultimate. Places like this become a part of you the longer you're here and that would always be the ultimate."

Well, at least he's not locking the door. Maybe Pat Gillick can kick it right down. What?

Special bonus post-game quote
"It was nice to have more than 10,000 people in the stands today," Hill said.

Heyyyoooo!

A man defeated?

"The biggest thing that people forget is that when Toronto won the World Series, they had the highest payroll in baseball. There's a direct equivalent to that. If we're going to play in the big man's division, and we're not going to spend that money, it's going to be really hard for us to compete with those teams."

So says the much maligned - and unfairly, I would add - Jays GM J.P. Ricciardi this week. I'd made a personal pledge to stop reading into every utterance from Jays management, but this is too easy. Ricciardi sounds frustrated - frustrated at the lack of direction he's been given, frustrated at the "payroll flexibility" mandate, and frustrated that the promising team he'd assembled has now gone straight to shit (how's that for grammar? FAIL). In short, he sounds like us.

He also sounds like a man with one foot out the door, whether by his own desire or someone else's. Evidently, he's not part of "The Plan" (TM). So whaddya got for us, Beeston? I sure hope it's a little more than offering up Ricciardi as a sacrificial lamb. Tell me there's more to it than that, Beest. Because unless you're simply aiming to please the typical asshat JaysTalk caller, that's not going to be enough.

Blogger seeks assistance in locating missing slugger
Has anyone seen Randy Ruiz? He can be described as follows:

• May or may not be a part of the 2010 Blue Jays baseball club. Insufficient evidence to evaluate at this time.
• Currently sporting an .878 OPS with 7 HR in 95 AB at the Major League Level.
• Portly, but in a fun way.
• Was the organization's AAA player of the year.
• Has only seen 8 at-bats in the last week.
• Ostensibly sits behind Jose Bautista and Kevin Millar on the depth chart.

If you have any information as to this man's whereabouts, please pass along any and all tips to Cito Gaston. Evidently, he can't find him either.