tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-24847621384831954092024-03-05T07:13:14.848-05:00The Tao of Stieb<i>Often Irreverent, Mostly Rational Blog for Fans of the Toronto Blue Jays. One Day, We'll Be Perfect.</i>Tao of Stiebhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12459135109404905466noreply@blogger.comBlogger1790125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2484762138483195409.post-22721894540445109582014-08-06T11:43:00.001-04:002014-08-06T11:43:52.979-04:00Hello? Is it me you're looking for?<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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Hello friends.<br />
<br />
Occasionally, I am shocked by the number of pageviews that this rather drab and static site receives. And not just those from myself trying to remember what it was like when I wrote stuff that was full of passion and vigour and punk rock mic stand kicks. When I read it, I think: That kid had potential. <br />
<br />
Anyways, if you're looking for me, you'll find all of my recent scribblings over at the Sportsnet site. Here's the link: <a href="http://www.sportsnet.ca/author/tao-of-stieb/">http://www.sportsnet.ca/author/tao-of-stieb/</a><br />
<br />
(I included the full link because I like the way that I'm referred to as an "author".)<br />
<br />
Also, I'll probably post a short thing or two here on occasion. Just to burn the gunk out of the engine. Maybe to indulge in my introspection into the process of being an anonymous blogger/content creator/author/guru/Solid Gold dancer.<br />
<br />
I continue to appreciate your patronage, and please do give the Sportsnet site your clicks. They've been very good to me, and it's always nice to hear when a post goes over well on their site.<br />
<br />
Besides: I really did prefer R.E.M. in the Warner Bros. days over their IRS records. I know you think you love <i>Life's Rich Pageant</i>, but let's be honest here. <i>New Adventures in Hi-Fi </i>blows all that jangly college rock shit out of the water. <br />
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(Ok, <i>Document</i>'s great. But they were already checked out and on their way to the major label at that point anyhow.)Tao of Stiebhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12459135109404905466noreply@blogger.com19tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2484762138483195409.post-59193398078140061372013-11-15T12:26:00.003-05:002013-11-15T12:39:51.690-05:00I Read This Book - "Great Expectations: The Lost Toronto Blue Jays Season"<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<br />
When I learned that the Toronto Blue Jays' 2013 season had been documented in book form, I'll confess that my first reaction was somewhere between nausea and dread. In that moment, I couldn't imagine reliving the season that had just passed, nor did I care to dissect it any further.<br />
<br />
At some point, you have to move on. <br />
<br />
It didn't help matters that at the time the book's imminent release was announced, John Farrell and the Boston Red Sox were barreling their way through the playoffs towards what seemed to be an increasingly likely and awful capper to what was the franchise's most miserable season of the past three decades.<br />
<br />
With a day or so of respite after the end of the World Series, and with a gaping hole in terms of baseball content in my life, my morbid sense of curiosity got the better of me and I relented. Fine. I'll read the book. I'll go through the entire ugly mess again.<br />
<br />
If I was to subject myself to such a trial, it certainly helps to know that <i>Great Expectations: The Lost Toronto Blue Jays Season</i> was penned by Sportsnet's Shi Davidi and the National Post's John Lott, the two beat writers whose work I most consistently read on a daily basis.<br />
<br />
So I read it. And I lived to tell the tale. I think I might have even learned a thing or two. Here are my thoughts.<br />
<br />
***<br />
<br />
In a time when the notion of "narrative" is so roundly disdained among the more censorious and persnickety of baseball analysts, it's to the credit of the authors that they've mostly steered clear of a straight chronological retelling of the season. I'm sure that there's a temptation to build sequentially through the schedule, creating a story with a central explanation for the downfall of the 2013 Blue Jays, but such an exercise likely serves to obscure the truth rather than uncovering it.<br />
<br />
Lott and Davidi smartly employ a style of the writing leads readers back and forth in time, through a circuitous path of personalities and events that ultimately influence the season. They highlight a few of the more notable Blue Jays - or at least the most talkative ones - digging back into their origin stories, how they made their way to Toronto and eventually through to what their impact on the ill-fated 2013 season was.<br />
<br />
Between those stories, they patch in aspects of the manner in which the season rolled out, mostly focusing on the events that you would expect: The Kawasaki walkoff, José Reyes' ill-fated slide in Kansas City, Bret Lawrie's freakout after Adam Lind didn't score on his shallow fly ball. There's some nice contextualization that happens around these events, both in terms of how they happened, as well as some hints as to the blow back behind closed doors.<br />
<br />
But beyond those moments, it's clear from the recounting that the season was very much a leviathan, much larger than the sum of the actions of the mangers or players. In the retelling, it almost seems as though the 2013 season was something that happened to the team, as though they were at times looking at their season from a distance even as they were in the middle of it. <br />
<br />
To that point, the book is at its best when it examines the way in which the team was assembled in the offseason, and how what might have looked somewhat like a "plan" was actually more a series of happy accidents and missed connections. It drives home the point that the Blue Jays certainly sussed out other possibilities, including moves that might have been more advisable, given the benefit of hindsight. But as those parts of the book demonstrate, the Jays are but one player among many, and at times faced with different timelines and levels of urgency than their trading partners or free agent targets.<br />
<br />
Call me an apologist - again - but the book leaves the impression that the most astute, deliberate and strategic foresight in building a team is ultimately as vulnerable to be undermined by dumb luck and injuries as any random collection of players. Which is oddly reassuring, but also disquieting if you have any notion that you're going to plunge your soul optimistically back into another few decades of fate's indifferent spirit grinder. <br />
<br />
***<br />
<br />
Two final thoughts on the book... <br />
<br />
Firstly, I found a lot of my anger and antipathy - <a href="http://taoofstieb.blogspot.ca/2013/07/dont-like-this-team.html">remember this post</a>, written in a fit of pique? - melting away as I worked my way through the book. In particular, I felt myself gaining a greater appreciation for R.A. Dickey, who I had grown to resent during the season for the verbose strings of excuses that followed each start. In the book, there's a greater sense of humility from Dickey in particular, and there's a more philosophical bent to some of the comments from some other key players.<br />
<br />
In a sense, it made me feel eager to see them back in action.<br />
<br />
Second, and relatedly, I found that there were a few gaps in terms of the players who were covered. There is ample time given to most of the key players, and one can certainly see which players are the most available and talkative of the bunch. (Miss you already, Mark DeRosa.)<br />
<br />
There is something of a gap, though, in terms of insight on the seasons of Adam Lind and J.P. Arencibia. I can certainly understand the rationale for why the gaps may exist, given that the former seems not to be a very good interview, and the latter cut himself off from the media for a significant portion of the season. Still, theirs were two of the more interesting stories to emerge from the 2013 season, and the book would have been a richer experience if there were some greater understanding of how one found a semblance of respectability while the other fell just about as far as is conceivable.<br />
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But those are minor quibbles. Given its speedy turnaround time and narrow focus, <i>Great Expectations </i>is an ample and observant recap of the past season, with enough insight to sustain your baseball love through the offseason, and enough wisdom to temper your outlook through the roster refresh that is sure to come this winter. <br />
<br />Tao of Stiebhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12459135109404905466noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2484762138483195409.post-50692185499210675502013-09-27T10:27:00.002-04:002013-09-27T12:00:38.330-04:00A season of expectations, a season of disappointment<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><img alt="Kawasaki opens his arms in triumph after delivering the walk off hit." height="265" src="http://farm4.staticflickr.com/3727/8855074229_5d72ac659d_b.jpg" width="400" /></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">There were happy times. Really. Photo courtesy the <a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/james_in_to/9118931003/" target="_blank">Flickr</a> stream of <a href="https://twitter.com/james_in_to" target="_blank">@james_in_to</a>.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
Nobody knows nothing.<br />
<br />
Maybe that doesn't seem like the most profound sentiment, and it probably sounded better when Socrates said something like it in his day. I am paraphrasing, mind you, and my version is certainly lacking grammatically.<br />
<br />
Still, it's the first thing that pops into my head when I look back on the 2013 season of the Toronto Blue Jays. Over the years, it's been something of a mantra that echoes through my mind almost constantly when I hear people talking in bold absolutes about baseball. But never more than this season.<br />
<br />
This was supposed to be a new, refreshed and revitalized Blue Jays team. This was a team that would play in the now rather than dreaming on a future. A team that spent money and traded their top prospects on proven veterans with pedigrees who were expected to help the team win now.<br />
<br />
The urgency to win was fueled in part by a one of the most calamitous seasons in Jays history, with a parade of injuries pile on top of homophobic eyeblack and finished off with a manager who bolted from the organization to a loathed rival. The Jays were left to pick up the pieces and restore faith in a hurry. And that's when it seemed as though the measured strategy of building from within was abandoned in favour of tactics echoing from the cheap seats.<br />
<br />
"Spend to contend!" they said. With the Red Sox emerging from shambles and the Yankees looking old and broken down, the Jays were presented with window. This was their time. This was not a year to dwell on "five-year plans" or meaningless games in the second half of the season. It was time to go big, and put an end to two decades of futility.<br />
<br />
And if you bought into that entire crock, it's hard to conceive of how this season could have been much more disappointing. <br />
<br />
Even if you approached the season with some hesitancy, the acquisition of an exciting player like Jose Reyes or a reigning Cy Young winner in R.A. Dickey was enough to make the lead up to the season a dizzying delight of anticipation and hope.<br />
<br />
But from the very opening of the season, this newly contrived squad was never seriously in the mix, nor did it ever really look quite right.<br />
<br />
Without wanting to build narratives in hindsight, there was something unnerving on Opening Day about Dickey's reaction to a fifth-inning Asdrubal Cabrera fly ball that carried over the fence, giving Cleveland a 4-1 lead in a game that would end at that score. Dickey's immediate reaction was to throw his hands in the air, as if to suggest that he found it beyond belief that a ball like that would leave the park.<br />
<br />
I make every effort not to give voice to my emotional reactions to those sorts of moment, if only so that I don't try to legitimize them. Those emotions are reactionary and amorphous vibes that haven't been treated with logic or contained and defined by reason. But in that moment, my raw feeling was one of dread. The Blue Jays had mortgaged two of their top three prospects to lock up a putative ace to win right away, but it turned out he was a flyball pitcher who was diminished when removed from the generous confines of Citi Field. And it wasn't going to work. Sorry about your luck.<br />
<br />
Not that you abandon all hope after one pitch in the first game game, mind you. That anecdote likely would have faded into memory if the Blue Jays had bounced back with any degree of success early on. But those initial weeks with the newly devised roster were an ugly and awful slog. The Jays looked awful in the field, with newcomers Emilio Bonifacio and Maicer Izturis both looking ill at ease in the infield.<br />
<br />
Josh Johnson looked lousy, picking and nibbling with offspeed and breaking pitches early in counts and getting hit hard when he came into the zone. Melky Cabrera moved like a man twice his age, stumbling in the field and pulling up lame on the basepaths. <br />
<br />
It was hardly an auspicious start for any of the newcomers, save for Reyes, who tore into his role at the top of the Jays' lineup over his first ten games with the club, posting a .991 OPS. But in that tenth game, Reyes executed an awkward, half-aborted slide that saw him immediately drop to the ground, in pain and in tears with a severe ankle sprain. <br />
<br />
I remember staring numbly at the television that night, caught under a wave of despair. Not even two weeks into the season, and it seemed as though 2013 was already a lost cause. It only twisted the knife deeper to know that this happened to a guy should be well-versed in the skill of sliding to steal a base.<br />
<br />
The season wasn't over, obviously. There were still 152 games to play over the next 25 weeks. But with so little margin for error in a tough American League, it was hard to conceive of how a team that looked so lousy could turn things around.<br />
<br />
There were high points to the season, of course. The unexpected emergence of Munenori Kawasaki - as much as an entertainer as a ballplayer - helped to fill in the gap as Reyes was convalescing. Kawasaki was the highlight of the most memorable positive moment of the season when his two-run walkoff double off Orioles closer Jim Johnson capped off a four-run ninth. Kawasaki would also play a key role in the Jays' 11-game win streak, posting a 1.018 OPS (.393 OBP, 625 SLG) at the top of the lineup over those games.<br />
<br />
And for a brief moment in June, it seemed as though the Jays might be back on track. By the end of their winning streak, they were two games over .500 (38-36), and out of the AL East cellar by percentage points over the Tampa Bay Rays. But from there through to today, the Jays posted a 34-51 record, stumbling along with a makeshift rotation that could never quite do enough to support the mostly-okayish offense.<br />
<br />
Last year at this time, I shrugged off the season almost entirely. There was nothing of value to be gleaned from it. It was a series of calamities and injuries and mishaps, the likes of which would be unlikely to be visited upon any one team again. There's no lesson to be learned there, aside from the fact that there are thousands of ways for plans to go astray.<br />
<br />
Today, after a whole new set of tribulations and disappointments, I'm probably ready to say that I don't know if you can ever really learn anything monumentally insightful from how one season plays out. Sometimes, things play out the way you hope, and sometimes they don't. The difference between being a laughing stock and being in the Wild Card mix for the Jays was one lousy loss every two weeks. <br />
<br />
I'm left after these past two seasons to think that there's no single path that teams should walk towards success. Rather, I think there are as many paths to success as there are success stories. Sometimes, that means loading up on veterans, and sometimes, it means holding onto your prospects until they blossom and provide you with depth.<br />
<br />
The Jays were a flawed team, but every team has flaws. Next week, when we're all hunkering down to watch playoff baseball, those teams that were talented and fortunate enough to play those elusive "meaningful games" will have more flaws than you would imagine.<br />
<br />
<br />
As Jays fans, we'll be fixated on the flaws as we attempt to understand what went wrong, and where to find those extra wins next season. But at this point, I could see the Jays adding the Matt Garza and Howie Kendrick and Brian McCann and still coming up short next season.<br />
<br />
I don't know what the answer is. But I know that I don't know. And knowing that means I'll temper my expectations for 2014, regardless of what happens this winter.Tao of Stiebhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12459135109404905466noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2484762138483195409.post-52188899809422135382013-09-17T12:36:00.002-04:002013-09-17T14:19:52.477-04:00Tao's Tweet Bag - Sporadically Answering Your Correspondence in Due Time<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<br />
Letters...we get letters.<br />
<br />
I'll confess that part of the reason that I started doing these mailbag-style posts - which I confess can be a touch hacky - is that it gave me a chance to take the pulse of the fans, and see what preoccupies them. And if you'll indulge a bit of flattery towards my Twitter followers, I find that the preponderance of notes I receive are thoughtful, considered and maybe even a bit optimistic, in spite of several disappointing seasons in succession. It actually raises my spirits. <br />
<br />
<br />
In this round of solicited questions, what seems to be primarily gnawing away at the soul of Blue Jays fans is the fate of one Mr. Jonathan Paul Arencibia. I doubt that these questions would raise his spirits.<br />
<br />
Let's dig in.
<br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-cards="hidden" data-conversation="none" data-partner="tweetdeck">
<a href="https://twitter.com/TaoofStieb">@TaoofStieb</a> If JPA doesn't have that incredible debut game, is he on the Blue Jays right now? <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23TaoTweetBag&src=hash">#TaoTweetBag</a><br />
— Dave Church (@dave_church) <a href="https://twitter.com/dave_church/statuses/378195170124001280">September 12, 2013</a></blockquote>
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script> No, I don't think that's the case at all. Arencibia was a first-round draft pick, a top-50 prospect according to Baseball America, and a Pacific Coast League MVP. The dude had credentials coming into his major league career.<br />
<br />
It's also easy to forget after this awful season for the Jays' catcher - both on and off the field - that there was a time when fans were left calling on the team to shove veteran John Buck out of the way to make room for the "catcher of the future", even after his remarkable debut. If the Jays parked JPA for weeks after his debut, there's little to suggest that one game would have had any impact on the decision to keep him in the starting role through two less than stellar seasons. <br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-cards="hidden" data-conversation="none" data-partner="tweetdeck">
<a href="https://twitter.com/TaoofStieb">@TaoofStieb</a> Does JPA have another level to his terribleness or is this his floor? <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23TaoTweetBag&src=hash">#TaoTweetBag</a><br />
— C. Hill (@hill_chris) <a href="https://twitter.com/hill_chris/statuses/378196726135267328">September 12, 2013</a></blockquote>
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script> It's hard to imagine that things could go much worse for Arencibia. Hard, but not impossible.<br />
<br />
Still, there's evidence from his first two seasons that he's not nearly this bad as an offensive player. In his first two full seasons as the starter, JPA posted a .716 OPS (.279 OBP, .437 SLG). Those figures aren't extraordinary, but the average across the league for catchers this season is a .706 OPS (.313/.393), which would place Arencibia as slightly below average for the position.<br />
<br />
If you suppose that a full season might not even be a sample size that is sufficient to make a decision on a player's worth, then the performance in the previous season should give some pause. It could be that there is something that is ailing Arencibia this season - physically, mentally, spiritually - leading to the past year being a weird and wonky fluke. Maybe he'll return to being a sorta-average player for his position in the coming years. <br />
<br />
But roll all of his performance to date together, and he starts to look like a fringey MLB backup, with some pop in his bat.<br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-partner="tweetdeck">
<a href="https://twitter.com/TaoofStieb">@TaoofStieb</a> why can't JP Arencibia take a pitch or two? <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23taotweetbag&src=hash">#taotweetbag</a><br />
— Alex Henriquez (@AlexHenriquez_) <a href="https://twitter.com/AlexHenriquez_/statuses/378211224804007936">September 12, 2013</a></blockquote>
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script> Some guys see taking a pitch as a passive approach. If you're asking me to play amateur psychologist, I think that Arencibia is the sort of person who wants to make things happen, not wait for things to play themselves into a situation that might be more beneficial to him.<br />
<br />
When Arencibia defiantly defended his reputation against the slings and arrows of baseball analysts, he pointed to the work that he had done for the team, such as the charity events and the winter tour. It was, in essence: "Look at what I do for you!"<br />
<br />
It's about action. Making stuff happen. Maybe that sort of mindset doesn't lend itself to watching a borderline pitch go by early in the count to elicit a more predictable and hittable pitch later.<br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-cards="hidden" data-conversation="none" data-partner="tweetdeck">
<a href="https://twitter.com/TaoofStieb">@TaoofStieb</a> can you see AJ Jimenez replacing JP next season? <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23TaoTweetBag&src=hash">#TaoTweetBag</a><br />
— #MrMITB (@Pookeo9) <a href="https://twitter.com/Pookeo9/statuses/378241668018737152">September 12, 2013</a></blockquote>
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script> Not really. With the starting pitching woes that the Jays have faced this season, it's hard to imagine them handing the full-time starting job over to a rookie next year.<br />
<br />
Moreover, I think that the Jays have started to show themselves to be more deliberate in how they promote players through the system, allowing them to master one level before ascending to the next. I think Jimenez still has a year of work to do in Buffalo before he gets promoted, though I could see him being mixed into the catching rotation towards the end of next season.<br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-cards="hidden" data-conversation="none" data-partner="tweetdeck">
<a href="https://twitter.com/TaoofStieb">@TaoofStieb</a> Make a case for JPA as starting catcher next year. <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23TaoTweetBag&src=hash">#TaoTweetBag</a>.<br />
— Matt Vee (@Matt_Vee) <a href="https://twitter.com/Matt_Vee/statuses/378240913732296704">September 12, 2013</a></blockquote>
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script> <br />
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script> He's here. He's controllable. He might not be this bad. He might be a deal if his numbers return to 2011-2012 levels, and he gets less than $2 Million through arbitration or pre-arb negotiation. <br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-cards="hidden" data-conversation="none" data-partner="tweetdeck">
<a href="https://twitter.com/TaoofStieb">@TaoofStieb</a> Given expected cost and his skills, I think Carlos Ruiz is a great fit for the Jays next year. What do you think Mr. Tao?<br />
— BVH (@BVHJays) <a href="https://twitter.com/BVHJays/statuses/379959210710425600">September 17, 2013</a></blockquote>
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script> I think Chooch might be expensive, and while he's just 34 years old, a multi-year deal at more than $6 Million per season might end up being a poor investment.<br />
<br />
Still, there's Ruiz's decent reputation for handling pitchers - though who wouldn't look good with that pitching staff? - and a very solid OBP. He's posting a .342 this season, .361 for his career, and a peak of .400 in 2010 followed by a .394 mark last season.<br />
<br />
If you're talking about a two-year deal, sure. Sign him up. If he's looking for more than $7 million and four years or more, I think you have to consider other options. <br />
<br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-cards="hidden" data-conversation="none" data-partner="tweetdeck">
<a href="https://twitter.com/TaoofStieb">@TaoofStieb</a> Will the Jays target Brian McCann this off season. Should the Jays target him? <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23TaoTweetBag&src=hash">#TaoTweetBag</a><br />
— The Brave North (@TheBraveNorth) <a href="https://twitter.com/TheBraveNorth/statuses/379965838402387970">September 17, 2013</a></blockquote>
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script> McCann might be one of the more sought-after pieces in this year's free agent market, as scant as the pickings are. He is younger than Ruiz, but has a long injury history with nary a body part left unscathed. He had shoulder surgery last offseason, suffered through hamstring tightness, knee contusions, intercostal and oblique strains, not to mention laser eye surgery that didn't quite take for the first few months afterwards.<br />
<br />
McCann's .824 OPS (.350 OBP/.473 SLG) plays very well as a catcher, though his defense isn't exactly revered. The big question you're left with if you're investing a significant portion of your payroll over the next six or seven seasons in a player like that is how much surplus value does he bring if you need to shift him to first base or DH. Could he play left field if required?<br />
<br />
Beyond all that, I still envision McCann in a Yankee uniform. I'm not sure I'd want to see the Jays attempting to outbid them for his services.
<br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-cards="hidden" data-conversation="none" data-partner="tweetdeck">
<a href="https://twitter.com/TaoofStieb">@TaoofStieb</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23TaoTweetBag&src=hash">#TaoTweetBag</a> Did the <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23jays&src=hash">#jays</a> had a problem with depth this year? I think they were deep enough at the start, but it all got eaten.<br />
— Matthew E (@MatthewElmslie) <a href="https://twitter.com/MatthewElmslie/statuses/378197187219312642">September 12, 2013</a></blockquote>
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script> <br />
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script> One of the aspects of the Jays' roster that I was dead wrong about this year was the flexibility, and to a slightly lesser extent, the depth.<br />
<br />
With multi-positional switch-hitters throughout the roster on Opening Day, I figured that the Jays would rarely find themselves in a pinch when it came to filling the lineup card. And for all of the misery this year, I think that the number of awful and inexplicable lineups were far less than the past two seasons.<br />
<br />
Still, the Jays probably came into the season with too many bench players on the active roster and not enough legitimate starters, especially at second base. Moreover, the depth just beneath the Major League level was pretty suspect and comprised of veteran castoffs -Andy LaRoche, Mauro Gomez, Ryan Langerhans - who might have given you a good week or two when filling in for a DL'ed starter, but weren't really an option that anyone would want to rely on.<br />
<br />
I suppose the emergence of Munenori Kawasaki was a fun spectacle to observe, but you certainly wouldn't want the Jays to look towards 2014 with off-field entertainment value as a priority for the club.<br />
<br />
Ultimately, I think that organizational depth is something that you develop from within, and unfortunately, the Jays had - and will continue to have - a gap year or two between their available bench spots and their better positional prospects. <br />
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-partner="tweetdeck">
Do the <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23Jays&src=hash">#Jays</a> have a legit No. 1 starter on the roster? Dickey struggled this year and Morrow can't stay healthy. <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23TaoTweetBag&src=hash">#TaoTweetBag</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/TaoofStieb">@TaoofStieb</a><br />
— Michael Fullan (@mrfullan) <a href="https://twitter.com/mrfullan/statuses/379960064523501569">September 17, 2013</a></blockquote>
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script> No, they don't. Dickey might have a Cy Young Award glistening on his mantle, but he probably profiles as a number three. A decent, innings-eating starter who takes the ball and gives you something between a 3.70 and 4.20 ERA.<br />
<br />
If he has a good, healthy season as a 39 year-old, Dickey might emerge as a decent number two pitcher, but as a suffering Blue Jays fan, would you want to bank on the likelihood of that eventuality?<br />
<br />
And would you also want to bank on the health of Brandon Morrow? I love watching Morrow pitch, and when he's healthy and available to take the ball, he has the ability to be a number two starter, and maybe something more. But players don't tend to get more healthy and less fragile as years go by, so again, I wouldn't want to plan on Morrow being more than 150 innings of number three starter quality.<br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-cards="hidden" data-conversation="none" data-partner="tweetdeck">
<a href="https://twitter.com/TaoofStieb">@TaoofStieb</a> What is more likely: a signing of a pitcher that would be #3 or higher in <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23Jays&src=hash">#Jays</a> rotation, or a trade for same type of pitcher?<br />
— Narkus Maslund (@NarkusMaslund) <a href="https://twitter.com/NarkusMaslund/statuses/379961317257252866">September 17, 2013</a></blockquote>
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script> I'd make a terrible clairvoyant. I can barely guess what I'm going to have for lunch, and I have infinitely more data points at my disposal to make such a postulation.<br />
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But if I just balance this out to guess at what is more likely, I would be left to wonder how much payroll the Jays' front office will be playing with this offseason. With big money commitments and raises being added onto next year's books - including Mark Buehrle's $7 million bump to become the Jays' highest paid player at $19 million next year - there's a lot of 2014 fiscal capacity that's already been eaten away.<br />
<br />
And make no mistake, number threes are still valuable commodities around
baseball. Ricky Nolasco is probably a number three, and he'll be
looking to improve on the $11.5 million he made this season when he
enters the free agent market.<br />
<br />
On the other hand, who do the Jays have to dangle in order to bring a number three pitcher into the fold? Do they send one of their offensive core - Reyes, Bautista, Encarnacion, Rasmus or Lawrie - out the door to bring back an Edwin Jackson-type? Do they again attempt to speed up their contention clock by moving Aaron Sanchez or D.J. Davis or Marcus Stroman out the door?<br />
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What do I think is the most likely of those scenarios? Ugh. I'd rather not think of it.<br />
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-cards="hidden" data-conversation="none" data-partner="tweetdeck">
<a href="https://twitter.com/TaoofStieb">@TaoofStieb</a> What's the chance J-Bau gets dealt before his current deal is finished? <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23taotweetbag&src=hash">#taotweetbag</a><br />
— G.L. Fishey (@GilFisher) <a href="https://twitter.com/GilFisher/statuses/378200028960940032">September 12, 2013</a></blockquote>
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script> José Bautista has two years at $14 million per season left on his current deal, with a $16 million option for 2016. That might make him a fairly attractive commodity, either in this offseason or next.<br />
<br />
The existential question for the Jays at this point is: Do you move Bautista now, and possibly take yet another step back away from contention in 2014? And towards what end?<br />
<br />
And while I'm not typically one to place emphasis on the intanglibles, I think that Bautista plays an important clubhouse role for the Jays that they might not be eager to part with in the short term. But if the Jays get off to a bad start in 2014 and are in the bottom half of the American League in July, I think he'd be a prime candidate to move out in order to begin the rebuild. <br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-partner="tweetdeck">
Can you quantify the impact of losing Butterfield /Luvelo and having rookie hitting/pitching coaches on the 2013 <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23BlueJays&src=hash">#BlueJays</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23TaoTweetBag&src=hash">#TaoTweetBag</a>.<br />
— Matt Crichley (@mcrichley) <a href="https://twitter.com/mcrichley/statuses/378242622802120704">September 12, 2013</a></blockquote>
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script> No, I can't. I suppose someone smarter than me or with more immediate access to advanced data sets could look at defensive metrics and the use of shifts in both the oufield and the infield and figure out how many runs the Jays are giving back by not adapting their positions before pitches are thrown.<br />
<br />
I really don't have an answer for this, but I include it here because it's a question that bothers me occasionally as well. While I like John Gibbons' lineup construction and bullpen management - the two most evident aspects of what a manager does - I have an odd feeling that there's a level of preparation for the season and for games that isn't in place this year.<br />
<br />
I could be dead wrong on that, but it seemed to me that they Jays came out of the gate flat, after a Spring Training that was acknowledged by those who observed these things annually as "relaxed". For years, Brian Butterfield was the field marshal in Dunedin, running camp and prepping the team for the forthcoming season. And his work with infielders was held in significant regard.<br />
<br />
Torey Lovullo was omnipresent on the top of the dugout steps in his tenure with the Jays, directing the outfielders on where they should play batters and often being the first face that a fielder saw on his down the dugout steps after an inning, presumably looking for a clarification on why a player made the choice he did, and suggesting the correction.<br />
<br />
I'm not close enough to the team to see what's happening this year with the coaching staff. But I think its a question worth raising.<br />
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-cards="hidden" data-conversation="none" data-partner="tweetdeck">
<a href="https://twitter.com/TaoofStieb">@TaoofStieb</a> goins future 2b? No need for a 2B in the offseason? <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23taotweetbag&src=hash">#taotweetbag</a><br />
— ⚾Mohammed⚾ (@35_mohammed) <a href="https://twitter.com/35_mohammed/statuses/378241005491077121">September 12, 2013</a></blockquote>
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script> I really like Goins. I think he's a ballplayer. But I also don't see him evolving into much more than a decent bench player or a marginal starter. He might surprise beyond that, and I love the level of athleticism that he demonstrates, but again, I wouldn't want to bet part of my 2014 success on his ability to post a .700 OPS in the Majors.<br />
<br />
My preferred course for him would be on the bench to spell José Reyes in the field on occasion, and to get some starts at second or third if needed. I might even want to see if he could handle some games in the outfield. Maybe I'm wrong about this, but I could see his best role in the big leagues as a Hairston Brothers' style supersub.<br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-cards="hidden" data-conversation="none" data-partner="tweetdeck">
<a href="https://twitter.com/TaoofStieb">@TaoofStieb</a> With all the misery of this season, are we overlooking the fact that the Jays seeming to be widely popular again is a big deal?<br />
— Colin Olford (@TorontoColin) <a href="https://twitter.com/TorontoColin/statuses/379961364334125056">September 17, 2013</a></blockquote>
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script> I agree that the Jays became a big deal (BIG DEAL!) this offseason, crossing over into the mainstream culture and news, and expanded their reach into some audiences that had been away for years or that hadn't yet engaged in the sport.<br />
<br />
Attendance figures for 2013 are promising, with the Jays showing the most year-over-year growth at the turnstiles this season. I haven't seen the ratings in a while, but I don't think they'd be terribly disappointing, given the circumstances.<br />
<br />
Of course, Toronto being Toronto, you can almost write the stories and talking points now that will come out next season, when Blue Jays attendance goes down by 1%, or 2% or even 5%. There's a smug cynicism about the sports scene in the Centre of the Universe, and it feasts of this sort of failure.<br />
<br />
But those sorts of declines shouldn't be surprising, nor should they be alarming. Moreover, I have a hunch that the younger cohort of new fans will appreciate the experience of diving into baseball, and won't necessarily run away at the first sign of failure.<br />
<br />
I'm sure that Blue Jays Talk host Mike Wilner will hear many declarations from fans who will state that they're finished with this team, but I get a sense that there has been enough goodwill engendered with a new generation of baseball fans.<br />
<br />
It might be shocking to hear an old fart say this about kids in their twenties, but I don't get the sense that those new fans feel as entitled to a winning team every year. I think they might have enough patience to stick around for a few seasons and see how it all plays out.<br />
<br />
Here's hoping they are rewarded. Tao of Stiebhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12459135109404905466noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2484762138483195409.post-71972956617484317152013-09-06T10:28:00.002-04:002013-09-06T10:28:37.088-04:00Baseball Needs a New Record Book<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><img border="0" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhtUTuxPsA8PsYEiLBcEZSmYxT9eXBTmSb4SjO4UyoV9jz8aDf10-NsSfYTHMBpm1PfVjU33E-E9yYVTFXV9CrDIHF6x0KBVB4ILiEv9e9S2_iEYc8ulgymtqjWkSsUZTJ9yCbWCqt7lT_8/s400/Erstad.jpg" width="257" /></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>Darin Erstad - Short-lived record holder?</i></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
Late in the 2000 season, Darin Erstad made a valiant run at the all-time single season hits record in Major League Baseball. Every night, fans hoped that their local broadcast would break into the Anaheim Angels' game with news of Erstad's pursuit of Wade Boggs' 15 year-old record of 240 hits.<br />
<br />
In his first at bat on the final day of the 2000 season, Erstad ripped a double to left field, tying Boggs. He ended up going 1-for-5 on the day, leaving him in that tie, and he would only share the record with Boggs for a year until Ichiro Suziki reached 242 base hits one season later.<br />
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Are you scratching your head, wondering why it is that you don't remember those momentous nights 13 seasons ago? You shouldn't, because they didn't actually play out that way. Unfortunately, baseball's record book is larded up with irrelevant and inflated stats and numbers from bygone eras where the game was profoundly different, and certainly of far inferior quality.<br />
<br />
To be a baseball fan, is to be indoctrinated with a reverence for the most cherished numbers from the history of the game. Part of the romance of those statistics is to imagine that the game was so perfect and the rules so similar across the decades that you could place Ty Cobb or Babe Ruth on a field with Ken Griffey and Cal Ripken Jr., and their skills would play right alongside one another. That they could walk shoulder to shoulder as the very greatest of the game.<br />
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It's this affection for the misty memories of a past that came well before most of our time that leads to people defending the sanctity of the record book, and creating some of the more poisonous instincts in baseball's traditionalists. <br />
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People long for the days of Joltin' Joe DiMaggio, and his 56-game hit streak. Or Ted Williams' .406 batting average. Or Babe Ruth's 60-homer season.<br />
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At the same time, the more recent single-season achievements - especially when it comes to home runs - are discounted or dismissed entirely because the entire "steroid era" is under suspicion by self-appointed arbiters of history.<br />
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As those types increasingly use - or withhold - their Hall of Fame votes to make the case that baseball has lost something of its purity and sportsmanship, it increasingly bothers me that baseball's record book and highest honours are being overrepresented by those who played in the most shameful era in the game's history, the Segregated Era.<br />
<br />
(And let's not forget that there are many executives who were either actively or tacitly involved in keeping baseball segregated who have plaques in Cooperstown.) <br />
<br />
Major League Baseball goes to some lengths to celebrate Jackie Robinson, and the eventual integration of the game. But it also glosses over the fact that some of the bygone greats piled up their achievements in leagues that were systematically racist, creating less competition for the players in that era. Does DiMaggio's hitting streak reach 56 games if the American League was integrated at the time? We'll never know, but we should never forget that pre-1947 numbers should always be regarded with a healthy dose of suspicion.<br />
<br />
You can have as many Jackie Robinson nights as you want, and you can
retire his jersey number across the game, but all of that comes off as
empty sentiment when you allow the records set in a game that was
unbalanced and unfair because of systematic and deliberate racism to
stand.<br />
<br />
I suppose it's possible to defend the individual players from that era, and say that they weren't actively racist and that their records still deserve recognition. But in doing that, it actively obscures the historical nature of the achievements of players from the more modern era.<br />
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When Ichiro eventually broke the single season hits record in 2004, it would have been nice to recognize the players he passed on the list who had posted incredible seasons in their own right. Boggs and Erstad and Carew, as well as Don Mattingly's 238 hits in 1986, or Kirby Puckett's 234 in 1988, or even Stan Musial's 230 in 1948, a year after the start of baseball integration.<br />
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Instead, those achievements took a backseat to totals from George Sisler or Lefty O'Doul. And while I'm sure that there are some who would step forth to defend their legacies, the preservation of the records from that era creates a record book which is less meaningful to current fans.<br />
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And it's not as though this is without precedent. The pitching stats and records from the "dead-ball" era are still preserved in so much as we can still locate them if we need to, but they are generally set aside from those in the "live-ball" era, which began in 1920. And one could argue that the distinction between those two eras is not as notable as the one between segregated baseball and integrated baseball.<br />
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Currently, the single season records for runs, doubles, runs batted in, and total bases all rest in the hands of segregated era players. But wouldn't it be more meaningful for current day fans to recognize Jeff Bagwell's integrated era record of 152 runs scored? Or Manny Ramirez's RBI record of 165?<br />
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As Blue Jays fans, we would remember Carlos Delgado's 2000 season especially fondly if we were to recall the summer in which he and Todd Helton made their run at the MLB record for doubles, with Helton's 59 still topping Delgado's 57 as the two top marks in that offensive category.<br />
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It's nice to think of baseball's vast history, and to acknowledge how the game has changed or evolved over the years. But some of the truly great performances of the past 30 years are not given their proper due when they are buried among the numbers of the segregated era.<br />
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<br />Tao of Stiebhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12459135109404905466noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2484762138483195409.post-35084239478864099402013-08-29T13:08:00.002-04:002013-08-29T13:08:50.634-04:00What Comes Next(?) - The Starting Rotation<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://www.sportsnet.ca/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/gibbons_john6404.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="225" src="http://www.sportsnet.ca/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/gibbons_john6404.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
Last year around this time, there was a notion that no matter what happened in 2013, it couldn't possibly be worse than what transpired in 2012. Which just goes to show you that there are a thousand shades of misery.<br />
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As the season concluded last year, there was significant discussion about the "crisis of consumer confidence", and the impending doom for the franchise unless something dramatic occurred to provide the fans with something resembling hope for the future. And then it all happened within the space of a few weeks, and there was tangible excitement and newfound aspirations. And ticket sales. And press conferences.<br />
<br />
Proven players and veteran presence and spending to be contending. Everything you could want and more.<br />
<br />
But as we'd soon find out, it doesn't take much time for plans to go wrong. And we're chasing another ghost of a chance.*<br />
<br />
The dilemma we as fans now face is understanding how you take a dramatically remodeled franchise with designs on perpetual contention that has been an abject failure, and tweak around the edges to regain that footing.<br />
<br />
Without question, the biggest disappointment this year has been the starting pitching. Injuries and ineffectiveness have essentially led to two of the top three starters - Josh Johnson and Brandon Morrow - being below replacement level and required much support from understudies who were on no one's radar before the season.<br />
<br />
(If you figured that Todd Redmond would provide significantly more value than Morrow, then I'd like to borrow your crystal ball.) <br />
<br />
Moreover, R.A. Dickey has looked like a back of the rotation starter for much of the season, and given his age and nagging injuries that have seeming affected his ability to throw the knuckleball as he did in his 2012 career year, one can hardly pencil him in as a number one or two starter for 2014.<br />
<br />
The Jays' 2014 rotation will likely include Dickey, Morrow and Mark
Buerhle, who has had a season which was as good as you could expect. But
to seriously contend in 2014 or 2015, one would imagine that you'd be
looking for at least one if not two pitchers who would slot ahead of
them in the pecking order.<br />
<br />
There's precious little frontline help for hire among free agent starting pitching. The top options among pitchers under the age of 32 would be Matt Garza, Tim Lincecum, Ricky Nolasco, or Edinson Volquez, and while none of them scream out "staff ace", it is likely they'll look to be paid as such. Which means that the Jays would likely have to overpay wildly in order to land a pitcher who might be a number two starter if all goes well, or possibly a three or four in most scenarios. Which doesn't really address the crux of the problem.<br />
<br />
We can cast our nets out into an ocean of dreams filled with unlikely trade scenarios, but considering the number of prospects that were sent out the door in order to land the mid-to-back-of-rotation starters that we now have, it's hard to imagine the package that could be constructed to tempt a team into trading Cliff Lee, or someone like him. (Note to file: There's no one "like" Cliff Lee.)<br />
<br />
We can also hope that Marcus Stroman and Sean Nolin are ready to step into a prime time role next season, but that's a lot to ask of any rookie pitcher. While both of them have shown promise in the minors this season, we're not exactly talking about the next Dwight Gooden or Steve Carlton stepping into the big leagues. <br />
<br />
<br />
Beyond them, Aaron Sanchez is probably still a year away, and Roberto Osuna might be two years away, given his recent injuries. <br />
<br />
There are two starters returning from a year of injuries in Kyle Drabek and Drew Hutchison, but if you presume a certain level of ineffectiveness coming off a UCL replacement surgery and rehab, they might slot in at the back of the rotation if not the bullpen or in Buffalo.<br />
<br />
And what about one-time staff ace Ricky Romero? I'd be surprised to see him in a Jays uniform next year. <br />
<br />
So what does that leave in terms of options? There are some older free agents who will be on the market, including former Jays Roy Halladay, Chris Carpenter and A.J. Burnett. (And how odd is it that the last guy on that list would seem to be the more desirable option?) Maybe it's overly cynical or self-critical to say this, but I would imagine that none of those three would be clamouring to return to Toronto.<br />
<br />
Another intriguing option would be Johan Santana, who hasn't pitched since August 17th of 2012, but who is still just 34 years old and has the pitching smarts to be a top starter if his body can keep up its side of the bargain.<br />
<br />
I'm also a bit intrigued by the impressive performances of the Rockies' Jorge De La Rosa and Jhoulys Chacin in what are typically inhospitable conditions for pitchers, but again, we're talking about players who would need to be acquired and who might not be much better than a number three.<br />
<br />
Beyond the personnel on the mound next year, there are two other essential pieces worth considering: The pitching coach and the starting catcher.<br />
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It's hard to know how much of this season's poor outcomes can be pinned on Pete Walker, especially when it would seem that none of the issues with Dickey or Morrow could be coached away. While I'm not advocating it, firing the pitching coach might not be out of the question after this season, especially after this week's announcement that manager John Gibbons will be back for 2014. It seems unlikely that the entirety of the coaching staff would return intact after a season like this.<br />
<br />
And while I'll admit to be a bit dim and unclear on where Walker's responsibilities end and where those of Pat Hentgen begin, the success of some unheralded bullpen arms at least raises the notion that maybe there's a qualified and popular successor on the staff now.<br />
<br />
It's also unfair and a bit presumptuous to say that the starting catcher had a negative impact on the rotation this year, even as unpopular as the incumbent in that position has become. But J.P. Arencibia's bat might not be good enough to keep him in that role going forward. <br />
<br />
We could dream on bringing José Molina back to Toronto to frame pitches and steal strikes like a masked bandit, though at 38 years of age with that body, it seems hard to imagine getting 100 starts from him in 2014.<br />
<br />
On the younger side of the equation, we're all anxious to see what A.J. Jimenez can bring to the table, and seeing him up close might be a highlight of the final weeks of the season. But can we presume that he can be an above-average game-caller in his first year in the bigs, supposing he even makes the team out of spring training? Seems like a tall order.<br />
<br />
There are no simple answers when it comes to improving the Jays' rotation for 2014. But it's hard to conceive of a 90-win team in Toronto unless something notable happens to change the makeup of those five roster spots.<br />
<br />
----- <br />
*That's a paraphrased lyric from Calexico's "Service and Repair". I've listened to that song a lot lately. Tao of Stiebhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12459135109404905466noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2484762138483195409.post-68890365532460140662013-07-25T10:00:00.002-04:002013-07-25T10:00:27.278-04:00Don't Like This Team<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh-wpHrSYG-ix1AeIrx1saFr0NdNxgkGsNbBErG9KRv93-TKTwOoGxeIjXYo27I6hyCq9ypCcNRuOz0Vy4QRuMlvB0qM7RP1mkAq1WMFPbo-D1c5XflitTDNjkmmFckVmGk-oKKAhQtT_06/s1600/SinkHole.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="266" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh-wpHrSYG-ix1AeIrx1saFr0NdNxgkGsNbBErG9KRv93-TKTwOoGxeIjXYo27I6hyCq9ypCcNRuOz0Vy4QRuMlvB0qM7RP1mkAq1WMFPbo-D1c5XflitTDNjkmmFckVmGk-oKKAhQtT_06/s400/SinkHole.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
Fellow Jays fans, I feel your pain.<br />
<br />
If I have spent much of the last seven seasons looking on the sunny side of things, and finding the lightness where most saw dark, and providing my optimistic sense of the rationale behind the Blue Jays' long term plans, then maybe my current state of mind will catch you off guard. <br />
<br />
But man...I really don't like this team.<br />
<br />
I don't like the starting pitching. I don't like the defense. I don't like the approach to at bats. I don't like the lack of progress shown by some, and the regression from all-star calibre to replacement level by others.<br />
<br />
I don't like that many of the most flawed elements of the current roster are not the result of a long term erosion in talent, but rather the result of bringing in players with skills that are either in decline or were never that great from the outset.<br />
<br />
I don't like J.P. Arencibia's oblivious griping about the media, and his wish that there would be more cheerleaders helping to "teach fans" about the game, which I suppose means enthusiastically telling the unwashed masses across Canada who have never been exposed to baseball that they don't understand how valuable a sub-.260 on-base percentage can be.<br />
<br />
I don't like Brett Lawrie's hands at the plate. I don't like that as the ball is being released, Lawrie gives a final energetic jerk of the bat, which he then has to pull back towards himself in order to begin moving the bat through the hitting zone, zapping all the strength out of his swing. I don't like that a player who was positioned as a face of the franchise has the same flaws in his swing as a dude on my softball team from ten years ago. <br />
<br />
I don't like that Brandon Morrow has never been healthy for a full season since he came to the Jays, and that I don't ever believe that he will be.<br />
<br />
I don't like that the team traded too many top prospects for a starting pitcher who was a good story, and had a very fine year in 2012, but who realistically wouldn't be one of the top 20 pitchers in the game in spite of his Cy Young Award. <br />
<br />
I don't like listening to R.A. Dickey talk. <br />
<br />
I don't like how Josh Johnson picks and nibbles around the zone, trying to elicit swings at junk that Frank Tanana would be ashamed to serve to hitters.<br />
<br />
I don't like José Reyes' defense, or the fact that it makes me nostalgic for Yunel Escobar.<br />
<br />
Moreover, I don't like that the cost of acquiring Reyes included sending more prospects and big leaguers plus taking on Mark Buehrle's stupid contract. <br />
<br />
I don't like that the starters have pitched poorly enough that the relievers have faced work loads that are too taxing, and that the result of this might be that the lone bright spot in the first half of the season might erode quickly from here. <br />
<br />
I don't like Melky Cabrera's approach at the plate, which is essentially to swing at everything, and hope that he can foul off enough pitches to stay in the at bat until the pitcher makes a mistake. And I really don't like that this approach has been plunked into the number two spot in the lineup, because of the need to "shake things up".<br />
<br />
Mostly, I don't like that nearly everything that Alex Anthopoulos has touched in the last three years seemingly has turned to dust. And I don't like that I don't feel as though I can trust his judgment.<br />
<br />
Mostly, though, I don't like what I see when I look ahead to 2014, or beyond. I don't like that the team will likely have to ride it out with Dickey, Morrow, Ricky Romero, and perhaps Johnson slated to be part of the rotation picture next year, accompanied by players like Kyle Drabek and Drew Hutchison who have yet to establish themselves as big leaguers. <br />
<br />
Every team has flaws, so it probably doesn't do a whole lot of good to enumerate every last one that our side has. In the process of building a winner, there are always bumps in the road, and the hope is that the good elements of the team are enough to navigate past them. But as good as a few players have been, they certainly haven't been enough to help get past this year's obstacles.<br />
<br />
What I like the least about the past few months is this nagging suspicion that the bumps in the road are actually sinkholes, and that the Jays are on the precipice of falling into oblivion.<br />
<br />
<br />Tao of Stiebhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12459135109404905466noreply@blogger.com20tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2484762138483195409.post-15495281164902530482013-07-18T15:04:00.000-04:002013-07-18T15:04:05.413-04:00"Does This Team Suck?", and Other Unanswerable Ponderances on the Eve of the Second Half<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/james_in_to/9118893833/" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" title="Untitled by james_in_to, on Flickr"><img alt="Untitled" height="334" src="http://farm4.staticflickr.com/3690/9118893833_bbd36c6f23.jpg" width="500" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Photo courtesy the revelatory <a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/james_in_to/9118931003/" target="_blank">Flickr</a> stream of <a href="https://twitter.com/james_in_to" target="_blank">@james_in_to</a>.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
Maybe it's a touch harsh to say that the 2013 Toronto Blue Jays "suck". The team itself is not so awful as to be unwatchable, and has actually been rather entertaining at various points of the season.<br />
<br />
(I'll pause here while you instinctively summon up an argument about the team's "consistency". And I'll silently judge you for doing so, though I am sympathetic and realize that it is not your fault seeing as though you've spent your whole life being fed the load of hooey about "consistency" by people in the business of creating noise about sports. But really, you should stop complaining about foolish consistency. It's the hobgoblin of small minds.)<br />
<br />
The 2013 Blue Jays are not nearly the omnishambolic catastrophe that we saw unfold painfully before us in 2012, befallen by injury miseries compounding underwhelming performance miseries compounding bullpen implosions compounding behavioural miseries compounding the general misery of Farrellball.<br />
<br />
This year's edition of the team has hit better, fielded well enough and features one of the most reliable bullpens in recent memory. So it's not all drudgery and burden to watch them play.<br />
<br />
It's just...they were supposed to be so much better than this, weren't they?<br />
<br />
<br />
After a winter in which they emptied out the system to go
"all in", acquiring veterans with track records and trophies on their
mantles, even my relatively tempered expectations for the team weren't
this tepid. And to torture the poker analogy: How exactly do you go all
in, bust out and then attempt to all in again the next year?<br />
<br />
Next year? Are we already talking about next year? Yes...yes, we are.<br />
<br />
It's not an absolute impossibility that the Jays get some decent starting pitching and go on some sort of run that propels them into the crowded mix for an outside chance at a spot at a one-game playoff run. But the smart money is against it, so the question that you're left asking is: What the hell? What's the plan now?<br />
<br />
The Blue Jays had a perfectly defensible plan up until this past season. Build through the draft and international signings, and develop the eventual contender through the Eternal Rebuilding Process. But the urgency of winning in the short term led them to empty out the system to bring in the likes of R.A. Dickey, Josh Johnson and Mark Buehrle to support Brandon Morrow and Ricky Romero in the rotation. <br />
<br />
Needless to say, it hasn't exactly worked out as planned.<br />
<br />
The flummoxing question as a fan is not so much one of whether the Jays should be buying or selling - they should always be both, really - but rather, what's the new timetable for contention? Are the Jays ready to start dealing from the shallow depths of their system in order to bring in more major league talent? Does it make sense to take a shot at even more short-term veteran players like Jake Peavy with a view towards contending in 2014?<br />
<br />
On one level, it certainly makes sense to attempt to ride out this season with as much of the Major League roster intact as possible. The lineup has been fine, and could be much better if good health and reasonable expectations of progression come to pass. The bullpen is deep, promising and somewhat cost-controllable through the next several seasons, though one can rarely predict reliever performance from one year to the next, and the team will eventually have to make decisions between a few of the bullpen arms. <br />
<br />
All of that ponderous re-tweaking amounts to deck chair feng shui on the Titanic if the team can't figure out their rotation, which for 2014 looks to be cluttered with pitchers who might have profiled at some point as aces or number twos or threes, but have recent performance that makes them look more like fours or fives or minor league roster depth.<br />
<br />
Do Drew Hutchison or Kyle Drabek factor in as positives for the rotation next season? What - if anything - can we expect out of Brandon Morrow at this point? Is R.A. Dickey's surreal, magical moment over? Does Josh Johnson return on a qualifying offer, and if so, do the Jays get enough out of him in another "contract season" to make him worth their while?<br />
<br />
Even if a shard of positive light ekes in through the bottom of the door, what's to say that the bullpen doesn't implode or the lineup doesn't take a step backward?<br />
<br />
The step forward into contention this season has been a bit of a bust. Those underwhelming results also augur poorly for next season. Which leaves me as a Jays fan asking this fundamental question: If not this year, and not next year...then when? And for all the hoopla and fireworks of the offseason, are the Jays really any better off than they would have been by staying the course?<br />
<br />
Are we getting closer yet?Tao of Stiebhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12459135109404905466noreply@blogger.com7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2484762138483195409.post-8776522999930154672013-07-04T17:40:00.000-04:002013-07-04T17:41:38.189-04:00Some Candid and Free PR Advice for J.P. Arencibia<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><img alt="Untitled" height="334" src="http://farm6.staticflickr.com/5547/9121125284_5873a0b2ed.jpg" width="500" /></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Photo courtesy the outstanding <a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/james_in_to/9118931003/" target="_blank">Flickr</a> stream of <a href="https://twitter.com/james_in_to" target="_blank">@james_in_to</a>.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
First off, let me cop to this: I never played the game.<br />
<br />
So yeah, I have a hard time telling a player what he should do when he steps into the batter's box, and when a screaming line drive ticks off of a player's glove, I have to admit that the whistling sound that a baseball makes as it approaches you scares me silly.<br />
<br />
But while I don't know that game, I can say that I've been a communications professional for more than 15 years. I've dealt with media and public relations and all manner of dark arts associated with influencing opinion. And over that time, I've learned a thing or two about how the whole machinery of influence works, and how a single negative press cycle can resonate for years, whether if it is deserved or not.<br />
<br />
I'm sure that J.P. Arencibia has had lots of rudimentary media training over the years. But seeing his rapid decline from telegenic media darling to multimedia whipping boy, I thought I'd offer up my expertise and give the Jays' catcher some media relations advice.<br />
<br />
I offer this up in a spirit of helpfulness. (And also, to fill some empty space on my blog...symbiosis!) I doubt that JPA will ever see it, but if he does, I hope that he takes this as genuine. <br />
<br />
<br />
<b>-Nobody wins in a knife fight: </b>It was clear from your tweet last night that this was not spontaneous reaction. This is something that you'd been thinking about and plotting out, and you were given your opportunity to get back at the media hecklers for the many injuries that you'd borne over this season.<br />
<br />
So you got your licks in. It probably felt good, too. For a moment, at least. <br />
<br />
But when you take an angry or confrontational tone in the media - regardless of who your intended target is - it usually only serves to make you look as bad as they do.<br />
<br />
In fact, I read a lot of tweets this morning from people who were not inclined to side with Gregg Zaun or Dirk Hayhurst and somehow found themselves incredulous at the fact that they were taking the side of your tormentors over yours. The fact that you took some unwarranted and mean-spirited shots at their baseball careers probably didn't help your case. Remember, this isn't the Jerry Springer show: The loudest insult or most bruising chair shot doesn't win the argument.<br />
<br />
Frankly, everybody comes away from this incident looking bad. You smear Zaun with tenuous allegations about his use of PEDs, and undermine Hayhurst's credibility, but you also make yourself look like a petty bully with thin skin who would use the opportunity of a promotional interview for a charity event(!) to show settle scores.<br />
<br />
It really wasn't pretty. And it definitely will change how people look at you. And not for the better. <br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>-Respect the media, even when you don't respect the media</b>: There are moments when you'll have to deal with members of the media that you don't care for. Maybe they don't ask pertinent questions, or maybe they torque stories up to make minor things seem worse than they are.<br />
<br />
But ultimately, that's what the media does. Their job is to make noise. Maybe there are times where they are not particularly sympathetic or appreciative of the nuance of the story. But that's because part of the function they serve is to deliver messages to an audience in a fast and efficient manner, which means that they don't always have time to fluff up your side of the story to the masses. <br />
<br />
When it comes to analysts like Hayhurst and Zaun, you have to understand that they are carnival barkers. They are there to promote the product, and bring people from their living rooms and into the baseball game. Sometimes that means speaking loudly without subtlety or shades of grey.<br />
<br />
But whatever the shortcomings are of the media, you have to understand how awesomely powerful they still are in creating your story. Even in this age of disintermediation, where you can work around the media to talk directly to the people, you'll find that the average person is still heavily influenced by what they read or hear or see in the mainstream media.<br />
<br />
If you're a public figure, and you're concerned about how you come off, you have to at least respect the media's ability to significantly affect that image.<br />
<br />
Even if you think you're being treated unfairly, lobbing insults at the media will probably only serve to confirm to most people that they probably had you pegged right all along. <br />
<br />
-<b>Only talk when it improves on the silence: </b>One of the first
things that people learn when they start to deal with the media is that
they rarely come off as well as they think they should.<br />
<br />
An
aspect of this comes from the fact that we as people don't know when to
cut ourselves off. We offer too much information that is extraneous to
the core of what we really care about, and media can end up focussing on
the trivial rather than the pertinent. <br />
<br />
This is why
awful PR people like me will tell you not to deviate from your message,
or to offer no comment at all. You really don't have a lot of control
over the finished product of a media story about you, so your goal is to
control the outcome of the story as much as you possibly can.<br />
<br />
This
can frustrate reporters, and can even even give them a bad impression
of you. But ultimately, they can't print what you don't say on the
record.<br />
<br />
(And if you want a master class in how to do this
without looking like a jerk, you should watch John Gibbons'
interactions with the media. That dude is like Yoda when it comes to
giving them nothing sharp with which they could later impale him.)<br />
<br />
On
the other hand, when you use the media as a way of venting your
frustrations, you open yourself up to all sorts of subsequent questions
and follow up and probing.<br />
<br />
Trust me on this, J.P.: By
the time the cock crows tomorrow morning, you'll have said that you just
want to put this incident behind you and move on. But this story is
going to keep following you. You'll be asked about it for as long as you're a Jay. And beyond.<br />
<br />
-Y<b>ou are not your brand. Your brand is what you do</b>: I would bet that there are 50 social media experts within a five minute walk of the Rogers Centre who would have highlighted you as a person who has developed a tremendous personal brand through social media.<br />
<br />
People know that J.P. Arencibia brand. You're young and fun-loving. A bit of a joker. A dude from the south who loves hockey. Scruffily handsome. You've got a dog named Yogi. You're a sensitive guy, and you give your time an energy to noble charitable efforts. (Ahem.)<br />
<br />
You've opened yourself up, and let people share parts of what makes you who you are. But all the personal stuff that you share is just scenery. It's
background, and maybe it gives us some sense of depth so that we don't
look at you like you're a circus animal. <br />
<br />
From a consumer point of view, though, you can't forget that the vast majority of your value to us as baseball fans is your output as a baseball player. It's cruel, and unfair. It's dehumanizing, even. <br />
<br />
But it's also why you have to separate yourself from the baseball player. You can have pride in your work, but as someone who is a sort of mass market product, you can't chase down every negative review that someone clumsily hurls in your direction.<br />
<br />
So what I'm saying is the best way to enhance your image is to just be excellent. And if you can't be excellent, at least be positive. <br />
<br />
-<b>A final thought</b>: Most everything that I write is supposed to be from the viewpoint of a fan, so let me close this off with some of that perspective.<br />
<br />
As a fan, I always dislike having players emphasize their "otherness" from me. The "you never played the game" line probably works well with your teammates in the clubhouse, because you're all wrapped up within this extraordinary experience of being professional athletes together.<br />
<br />
I will probably never understand how hard it is to play the game of baseball at the level you do. But you telling me that I don't understand such things just creates more distance between me as a fan and the players on the field.<br />
<br />
In spite of the fact that I am completely and irrationally immersed in this sport, it's moments like this that remind me that I'm a grown man, and should probably be spending my time and money in more productive ways.<br />
<br />
And if that's the feeling that a true believer and devoted follower of the Jays is taking away from this whole public relations fiasco, I can't imagine that was your intention when you cleared your throat and rubbed the sleep out of your eyes at 8:40 am this morning.<br />
<br />Tao of Stiebhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12459135109404905466noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2484762138483195409.post-75369357214712953742013-06-25T23:13:00.000-04:002013-06-25T23:13:59.774-04:00A two-sentence post on... Munenori Kawasaki (who else?)<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgEYsyERf_qlJnGFTV1bZuXFhjmx3NF1Zm8rOZkYjkoZXub8u32qTXnqSBqPcM0qqR0dvNcWNhTw9_eZttG0U6YgwHma-i9f584VDjzL82pfHYGj7h_l5RTDlzc0LCfxLVTcd60vqYEbMm4/s1600/hi-munenori-kawasaki-852-rt.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="179" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgEYsyERf_qlJnGFTV1bZuXFhjmx3NF1Zm8rOZkYjkoZXub8u32qTXnqSBqPcM0qqR0dvNcWNhTw9_eZttG0U6YgwHma-i9f584VDjzL82pfHYGj7h_l5RTDlzc0LCfxLVTcd60vqYEbMm4/s320/hi-munenori-kawasaki-852-rt.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<br />
Munenori Kawasaki has been optioned to the AAA Buffalo Bisons. And you can take your "cheering for laundry" nonsense and stick it in your ear.<br />
<br />
<br />The Ackhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12374953233006854310noreply@blogger.com31tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2484762138483195409.post-7025396052917801662013-06-23T22:41:00.000-04:002013-06-23T22:41:26.035-04:00Reflections on a Winning Streak<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-C1QQYzoM0Zk/UcexMDmbT5I/AAAAAAAAAPE/tO12rr5SXDg/s1600/11.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="214" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-C1QQYzoM0Zk/UcexMDmbT5I/AAAAAAAAAPE/tO12rr5SXDg/s320/11.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Photo courtesy the outstanding <a href="https://twitter.com/james_in_to" target="_blank">@james_in_to</a>'s <a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/james_in_to/9118931003/" target="_blank">Flickr</a> stream.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div>
It would be redundant to re-hash all the super duper great things that have been happening during the Toronto Blue Jays' current 11-game (!) winning streak. They've hit the ball well, they've fielded it well, and they've pitched well. They haven't necessarily done all of those things at the same time in eleven straight games, mind you, but in instances where one of the legs of that precarious three-legged stool has wobbled a bit, the other two legs have been more than sturdy enough to keep things upright.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Good lord, it's been a blast, hasn't it? I like to think I'm generally a pleasant person regardless, and I've learned over the years that loyal support of a baseball team that usually loses more than it wins is not a good reason to allow a sunny disposition to be disturbed. Still, over the last couple of weeks, even knowing a streak like this won't last, I've gone from cheerful to being about two steps removed from skipping down the street like a giddy schoolgirl. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
If you wear your fandom on your sleeve, on your head, on your desk, on the bumper of your car and everywhere else, you've probably suffered through much of the same mix of mockery and sympathy that I have since the beginning of April. "What's wrong with your boys?" they asked. "Worried yet?" they asked. You try to keep a brave face, you try to convince yourself it's early and they'd at least make things interesting at some point. But when you were honest with yourself, you accepted what seemed to be staring you in the face -- the disappointment of a likely third or fourth place finish in the monstrous American League East, by virtue of a brutal start to the season from which the team was unable to recover.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
And now it's all changed. On June 21, as the season turned officially to summer, the Jays won the first game of an eventual sweep of the division-rival Baltimore Orioles, their third consecutive such sweep to open what was anticipated to be an angst-ridden ten straight within the division. They've crept to within five games of the division lead (not just the Wild Card, mind you).</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
There are nearly three full months ahead of us before the calendar tells us it will be fall, and the nip in the evening air reminds us playoff baseball is on its way. Three full months of streaks to begin and end, for the ebbs and flows of a long Major League Baseball season to separate the real talent from the pretenders of April and May. Injuries, substitutions, stars emerging, veterans fading away, brilliant plays and boneheaded mistakes -- all of the things that make every baseball season intriguingly unique.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
It's been a helluva long time since the Jays have well and truly been in the mix to emerge at the end of a long, hot summer with a chance to experience what the fall has to offer. Yet here we are, fans riding the euphoria of the the longest winning streak in franchise history (tied, yes, I know... come talk to me tomorrow night). The caps and jerseys are worn a little more proudly; the water-cooler chatter is a little more confident. It's true that the Jays haven't won anything yet, but it sure feels better to know they haven't lost it all yet either.</div>
Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2484762138483195409.post-58989712527290697472013-06-21T12:01:00.001-04:002013-06-21T12:27:03.738-04:00Weekend Whatnot - The Crowded 25-Man Roster<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/james_in_to/9082067186/" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" title="The team heads onto the field after their seventh straight win. by james_in_to, on Flickr"><img alt="The team heads onto the field after their seventh straight win." height="393" src="http://farm8.staticflickr.com/7297/9082067186_0fbed6f3d5.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Photo courtesy <a href="https://twitter.com/james_in_to" target="_blank">@james_in_to</a>'s peerless <a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/james_in_to/with/8848310336/" target="_blank">Flickr</a> stream.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<i>Burning questions, idle thoughts and silly preoccupations as we ease into the first official weekend of summer.</i><br />
<br />
<b>The Crowded Roster, Part 1</b>: As I waited for a ride yesterday afternoon, I offered up my downtime to answer whatever was on the minds of my Twitter followers. In a fairly predictable turn of events, the most commonly offered query had to do with the roster machinations that will be required once José Reyes returns from injury next week.<br />
<br />
(Sportsnet's Ben Nicholson-Smith has <a href="http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/roster-options-for-jays-when-reyes-returns/">a nice rundown of the possibilities here</a>, if you hadn't already read it.) <br />
<br />
There really shouldn't be any angst or downside to the return of Reyes, who was by far the Jays best player in his 10 games at the start of the season. But given the unusual attachment that people have developed towards Munenori Kawasaki, the prospect of losing him from the 25-man roster seems to have created some distress.<br />
<br />
It also offers fans an opportunity to take a running start at booting Maicer Izturis, Emilio Bonifacio or even Mark DeRosa in the ribs.<br />
<br />
There's certainly some argument for keeping Kawasaki around, mostly fueled by his team-best 13.4 per cent walk rate. He might not hit the ball hard or often, but a .337 OBP will certainly do for a player in a bench role or a part-time second baseman. His weighted on-base average (wOBA) has been slightly above league average for shortstops (.294 versus .289), so there is certainly some value to keeping him on the roster. <br />
<br />
While, both Izturis and Bonifacio have looked much better in the field over the past month, both continue to languish offensively, sitting at the bottom of the heap in wOBA over the past 30 days (.255 for Izturis, .242 for Bonifacio versus .289 for Kawasaki.)<br />
<br />
What keeps this from being an easy call is the three-year deal that the Jays signed with Izturis in the offseason. The Jays obviously can't demote Izturis without designating him for assignment. The most likely situation if that were to happen - and I still think it is highly unlikely - is that no other club would step up to acquire him, and Izturis would reject a minor league assignment. At that point, any other team could step in and sign Izturis for the MLB minimum without giving up so much as a bag of balls to the Jays in return.<br />
<br />
Meanwhile, the Jays would be stuck with paying out the remaining two-and-half years and $10 million to Izturis in the hopes that the two-month samples of both Kawasaki and Izturis portend their future value. That's something of a gamble.<br />
<br />
If the Jays were to go the unpopular route of sending Kawasaki back to Buffalo, it would mean keeping all of their assets, and not having to worry about who the next infielder in their depth chart might be if they run into injury trouble again. <br />
<br />
<b>The Crowded Roster, Part 2</b>: There's another simple solution to the conundrum above, and that's to finally - FINALLY! - do away with the 13-man pitching staff and send a reliever packing.<br />
<br />
After all, a week or two of decent starting pitching performances has meant that some of the relievers are having to shake of dust and cobwebs from under their arms when they go to warm up. And while lefty Juan Perez would seem to be the most likely candidate to be cast off, his performance has been good enough that you almost hate to lose him.<br />
<br />
Meanwhile, the Jays will soon find themselves in a position of finding roster spots - and rotation slots - for J.A. Happ and Brandon Morrow, should an extended period of good health ever find them. Moreover, the Jays will have to decide whether if Drew Hutchison or Kyle Drabek will get Major League innings as part of their recovery from their respective Tommy John surgeries in the later stages of the season. There is also Luis Perez, who suffered a set back last week but is likely to be the first of the TJ'ed pitchers back on the big league roster.<br />
<br />
Having too many arms is a nice problem to have, and good lord, haven't the Jays needed the extra help over the past two years. The simple solution with controllable players like Hutchison and Drabek would be to leave them in the minors until September 1st, then shut them down for the year.<br />
<br />
Perez - that's Luis, you understand - might pose a more difficult problem, as they may be put into a situation where his rehab time comes to an end and they need to find a way to wedge him back onto the roster.<br />
<br />
A week ago, I might have suggested that sending Darren Oliver to a contender might be a smart way to uncloud the picture...but who really wants to give him up now, with the Jays back in a place that sort of resembles contention?<br />
<br />
<b>A Big Week</b>: I don't want to put too much stock in the results over the next week, with the Jays finally squaring off against AL East counterparts. But a good result - let's say 6-4, depending on how you slice up the wins and losses - could go a long way towards mixing up the playoff picture in the division.<br />
<br />
After years of hearing people moan longingly for "meaningful games", I hope that fans realize that the incredibly tight state of this year's AL East - coupled with the Jays' lousy start - means that almost any divisional series becomes something akin to a three or four game playoff.<br />
<br />
If you only care about meaningful games in September, then fine...enjoy your summer off. But for those who are geared up, this could be as much fun as a Jays fan has seen in years.<br />
<br />
Just try to contain yourself.Tao of Stiebhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12459135109404905466noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2484762138483195409.post-18704685240653174962013-06-17T12:53:00.001-04:002013-06-17T14:22:29.208-04:00Blue Monday - Scattered thoughts to kick off your week<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/james_in_to/7953281482/" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" title="Untitled by james_in_to, on Flickr"><img alt="Untitled" height="267" src="http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8446/7953281482_4d3a5dcdb2_c.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Photo courtesy <a href="https://twitter.com/james_in_to" target="_blank">@james_in_to</a>'s incomparable <a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/james_in_to/with/8848310336/" target="_blank">Flickr</a> stream.</td></tr>
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<b>More Lindsanity</b>: Last week, it was supposed in this space that Adam Lind's torrid hitting pace was nice, though not sustainable at this level. And then over the weekend, he went 7-for-13 with two homers in three games, bumping his season-long OBP/SLG slashline to .417/.561.<br />
<br />
What's more is that Lind has posted <i>better </i>numbers against the same lefties who once owned him. He still only has 25 plate appearances against southpaws, but he has managed a remarkable 13 hits in those matchups, including a homer and three doubles. Obviously, small sample size disclaimers apply, but it would be hard to think of a 25 plate appearance stretch against lefties in any of the last three seasons where Lind had anywhere near this kind of success.<br />
<br />
Perhaps the most impressive indicator in all of Adam Lind's stat lines is the sharp decline in the percentage of infield fly balls he has surrendered. In the last two seasons, Lind has posted IFFB% of 10.5% and 9.9%. But this year, with a stronger swing and fewer painful flailings, Lind has dropped that number to 1.9%, which will place him in the top 20 in baseball once he qualifies.<br />
<br />
Moreover, Lind has raised his line drive percentage by 6.7% over last year while dropping his ground ball rate 7.6%. All of which points to the fact that he is hitting the ball harder and squaring it up more often. And you can have a lot of success that way.<br />
<br />
<b>WAR! Huh! Good Lord!</b>: I'm not particularly clever - nor wise - but as I understand it, Wins Above Replacement are probably best considered at the end of a season, when looking backwards to assess what happened in a year, or over the span of several seasons.<br />
<br />
But since they publish the running tab on these things, let's say we indulge in a bit of imprudent number regurgitation.<br />
<br />
Most winningly-winning Blue Jay thus far? José Bautista, who has been such a bad example to the rest of the team through his unleaderly ways* that he's posted 2.5 wins above scrub level, according to the Fangraphs tabulation.<br />
<br />
Second on the list? Colby Rasmus, who crushed three home runs over the weekend in the Texas heat, and now sits at 1.9, just ahead of Adam Lind (1.8) and Edwin Encarnacion (1.7).<br />
<br />
In an odd and eminently notable coincidence, we find ten games of José Reyes from back in April and Muenenori Kawasaki's 53 games of emergency replacement duty tied for fifth on that list with 0.6 wins.<br />
<br />
On the pitching side of the ledger, Brett Cecil leads all with a 0.9 mark, while Casey Janssen follows with a 0.8.<br />
<br />
Mark Buehrle has been the most valuable starting pitcher, tied for third Steve Delabar 0.6 wins. Meanwhile, putative staff ace R.A. Dickey is tied with Juan Perez at 0.5 wins. I'm sure Dickey's philosophical about it...or at least has a good explanation. <br />
<br />
<b>Unexpected roster flexibility</b>: Edwin Encarnacion has looked kinda good at third base, hasn't he?<br />
<br />
While past experience might lead one to have apprehensions about putting EE there on a regular basis, Jays' manager John Gibbons has seemed to pick his spots well over the past few weeks, since a short bench in NL parks during interleague play pushed him to make the move.<br />
<br />
In 61.2 innings at the hot corner, Encarnacion has fielded well enough to make you think that he might be up to the task here and there while awaiting Brett Lawrie's return. It certainly enhances the strength of the offensive lineup should the Jays need to cycle some other bats through the DH slot through the summer months. <br />
<br />
<b>Remember the 2013 pitching staff</b>: It was hard to imagine the 2013 season being any worse that last year, when the Jays would require 34 pitchers to get through the schedule. Well, here we are: Not even half-way through the 2013 season and the Blue Jays have thus far employed 29 pitchers. <br />
<br />
It's probably fair at this point to say that this emanates in part from an organizational philosophy: The end of the rotation or bullpen slots are not so much jobs that are won as much as they are temp positions that are filled on an as-needed basis. Still, it adds up to a remarkably odd and eclectic list of names that you find filling out the season's roster. <br />
<br />
David Bush, Aaron Laffey, Justin Germano, Todd Redmond, Edgar Gonzalez, Thad Weber, Mickey Storey...heck, Ramon Ortiz seems like an organizational mainstay compared to some on that list.<br />
<br />
It's almost enough to make you want to run a graceful, slow-motion, black-and-white "In memoriam" tribute over the strains of Sarah McLachlan's "I Will Remember You" to some of these now-departed hurlers.<br />
<br />
Except that, you know...for the most part, we won't remember them. Only those among us who take unusual delight in the obscure would want to.<br />
<br />
---<br />
<br />
<i>*I'm being facetious about this. Sometimes, I assume that this is obvious. But some of you might be reading my scribblings for the first time. In which case: Welcome. </i><br />
<br />Tao of Stiebhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12459135109404905466noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2484762138483195409.post-39264973653445726012013-06-13T12:28:00.000-04:002013-06-13T12:33:57.560-04:00Various and Sundry Thursday Thoughts: Lind's resurgence and catchers controversies<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/james_in_to/9011750196/" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" title="Lind connects for a three run home run. by james_in_to, on Flickr"><img alt="Lind connects for a three run home run." height="280" src="http://farm4.staticflickr.com/3802/9011750196_beed5fa1a0.jpg" width="500" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Photo courtesy <a href="https://twitter.com/james_in_to" target="_blank">@james_in_to</a>'s stupendous <a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/james_in_to/with/8848310336/" target="_blank">Flickr</a> stream.</td></tr>
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<i>A few whims, notions, impressions and sentiments on the state of the Jays, such as it is...</i><br />
<br />
<b>Lindsanity</b>: The funny thing about the great start to the 2013 that Adam Lind has had is the way that so few are prepared to believe it. <br />
<br />
I suppose it makes sense, given the long, slow turgid road that we followed in watching his decline three year death march through the wilderness following his Silver Slugger season of 2009. In the ensuing three years, Lind posted an OPS of .724, saw his effectiveness limited by back problems, and managed to find himself demoted and exposed to waivers. An ignominious fate, to be sure.<br />
<br />
Lind might not keep up his current pace - .418 OBP, .540 SLG - as his .391 BABIP seems unsustainably high. But his walk rate is up impressively to 12.2%, over rates of 6.2%, 5.9% and 8.2% over the past three seasons. He's also dropped his strikeout rate down to 16.9%, which is not bad for a power hitting <br />
<br />
And to the eye - well, my eye, anyways - Lind's swing looks vastly improved over recent years, as he is back to uncoiling his body through the swing and getting torque from a decent rotation of his hips, rather than the vacant, all-arms swipes of recent memory.<br />
<br />
If nothing else, this seasons has certainly complicated the question of what the Jays do with Lind and his three club options for 2014 through 2016.<br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>Catcher Controversy?</b>: The two-guys-one-job discussion is ubiquitous among the sports-talk chattering class, and in large part, these so-called controversies make for easily digestible stories. There are winners and losers. It's binary, and you get to play both sides while urging fans to choose one or the other.<br />
<br />
So forgive me if I indulge for a moment in that which I hold in disdain. <br />
<br />
The Jays decision last week to bring Josh Thole to the Majors was swiftly followed by speculation as to when he might supplant the struggling J.P. Arencibia as the everyday catcher. And the contrast between the two couldn't be more stark.<br />
<br />
In his better moments, Thole is a patient hitter who will get on base (.330 career OBP), take walks (9.1% BB rate) and not strike out too much (12.3% K rate). He'll also not hit the ball very hard (.071 isolated power). Arencibia makes a lot of outs (.267 OBP), strikes out a ton (29% K rate) and walks only on special occasions (5.5% career walk rate, which has steadily declined from his 7.4% rate from his first full season.) Still, Arencibia can smack a tater. A .211 isolated power and .431 SLG are not to be dismissed out of hand.<br />
<br />
Toss all those numbers into a big pile, and you can understand how people would divide themselves into two camps. Fewer outs! More dingers! Less slap hitters! More dingers!<br />
<br />
Oddly, for the catching position, there isn't a lot of discussion around the relative levels of defensive acumen among these two. Maybe it's because neither are particularly exceptional behind the plate, nor are they wholly awful.<br />
<br />
Up until the last game played in Chicago, I might have suggested that Arencibia is unlikely to lose much playing time to Thole given what I perceive to be an undying mancrush that John Gibbons seemed to have on J.P.. All of those at bats in hitting third, fourth or fifth in the order must have come from some level of irrational affection, right?<br />
<br />
But seeing JPA plugged into the seven-hole in the lineup - against a lefty, no less - makes me wonder if his last 20 games and 99 plate appearances have been bad enough to take the bloom off the rose. A .202 OBP with 29 strikeouts versus four walks will do that.<br />
<br />
Arencibia is likely to remain the incumbent in the coming months, but don't be surprised to see Thole get starters against right-handers with decent breaking balls. And if he succeeds? Well, then we might have a real discussion on our hands for 2014.<br />
<br />
And one last note to ponder: Thole is signed to a two-year deal that pays him $1.25 million per year, while Arencibia makes $505,000 and hits arbitration after this season. Which might make this somewhat contrived controversy a little more real by the time we get to the trade deadline. <br />
<br />
<b>Programming note</b>: If you want to take me to task on either of today's whims, or just want to discuss the state of the Blue Jays, I'll be chatting on <a href="http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/">Sportsnet.ca</a> tomorrow at 12:00 noon Eastern Time. Come on by and let me know about the bee in your ballcap.<br />
<br />Tao of Stiebhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12459135109404905466noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2484762138483195409.post-54604518341004084442013-06-06T08:00:00.000-04:002013-06-06T08:00:13.149-04:00Young Man Blues - Where Does Brett Lawrie Go From Here?<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg2SQh8KhQAnIoMISynCe__MtbmulwospyaUyUfAoE422yf_JUlAFMF0xHRVRYoLWXshchobSfOAnCvUp1y0J3Q5ArzfiTvvaTl7BmhSxdmT7TccYXHAGVNfIM8HbJKE8kHFrc45u9s2isC/s1600/8809568536_e3ec6c4cfe_b.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="258" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg2SQh8KhQAnIoMISynCe__MtbmulwospyaUyUfAoE422yf_JUlAFMF0xHRVRYoLWXshchobSfOAnCvUp1y0J3Q5ArzfiTvvaTl7BmhSxdmT7TccYXHAGVNfIM8HbJKE8kHFrc45u9s2isC/s400/8809568536_e3ec6c4cfe_b.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Photo courtesy the outstanding <a href="https://twitter.com/james_in_to" target="_blank">@james_in_to</a>'s <a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/james_in_to/with/8848310336/" target="_blank">Flickr</a> stream. </td></tr>
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If there's one aspect of being a baseball fan that has transformed most dramatically since this blog was launched seven seasons ago, it's the way that young players are taken into consideration.<br />
<br />
I remember at various times in the not-so-distant past keeping a watchful eye on the stat lines of players such as John-Ford Griffin, or Robinson Diaz, or Brian Dopirak, or even Chad Mottola, with the full expectation that at some point they would translate their minor league excellence into a career as everyday players with the Jays. <br />
<br />
In more recent years, the mark of the more sophisticated baseball connoisseur was the ability to scoff at such middling organizational filler and rattle off the long list of more pertinent and exciting prospects within a system and throughout the game. A new surfeit of readily available resources that rate and rank and analyze ballplayers and teams allowed us to form opinions from our couches on athletes that we might not see at the top level for years...if at all.<br />
<br />
Actually, that last part is the one that increasingly preoccupies me. Having indulged in so-called "prospect porn" for the last few years, the one thing that increasingly impresses itself upon me is the high failure rate of prospects. And this isn't limited to your garden variety organizational filler. I'm talking about the number of "blue chip", "can't miss" prospects. The top five percentile that fill the top ends of those perpetual speculative top 100 lists based on the gaudy numbers they post against their peers in the lower, developmental levels. The players who make their way onto a Major League Baseball roster to all matter of hoopla and frantic fantasy baseball waiver wire activity.<br />
<br />
All this new information gives us some alleged sense of knowledge on players about whom we know very little beyond the blurbs. But what has been striking over the past couple of seasons are the number of top-flight young players who simply cannot make a go of it once they face real live big leaguers.<br />
<br />
Previously, there were players like Jeremy Hermida or Brandon Wood, who stood out because they seemed to be the exceptions as top 10 prospects who never were able to convert that promise into something more tangible. Lately, though, it seems like this list is getting longer in a hurry. This includes premier minor league players like Mike Moustakas, Eric Hosmer, Justin Smoak, Jesus Montero, Dustin Ackley, Gordon Beckham, and yes, Travis Snider. <br />
<br />
This failure rate for young players is quite unlike anything you see in the other major professional sports. Basketball, hockey, and football all draft impact players from the amateur ranks and have them producing at the highest level within a year or two. They slide into the professional game seemingly by sheer virtue of their athletic prowess.<br />
<br />
Which brings us to this month's whipping boy, Brett Lawrie.<br />
<br />
There's little question that Brett Lawrie is an exceptional athletic specimen, and that certainly helped him push his way into the major league lineup ahead of schedule, at 21 years of age. He made the leap into MLB after just 326 minor league games. That's fewer games than it took for Roberto Alomar to make it to the big leagues. It's almost a full season less than it took for Tony Fernandez to make it and it is about half as many games as it took for Carlos Delgado to crack the premier lineup.<br />
<br />
It probably helped that the Jays needed to show some return from their trade of opening day starter Shaun Marcum while a mixed bag of third baseman barely held the spot warm for him. Meanwhile, Lawrie posted numbers in Las Vegas that were otherworldly, and beyond what he'd ever posted before in his minor league career.<br />
<br />
Lawrie's debut with the team in the latter stages of 2011 was something of an astrological event. New-found plate discipline and a hell-for-leather approach to all other aspects of the game made him appear to be something more than an all-star. Lawrie appeared destined to become a transcendent sports figure in Toronto, and one who brought non-baseball fans into the fold. One needed only look at the names and numbers on the backs in the crowds at the Rogers Centre to see whose stardom shone above all others.<br />
<br />
But like those many other phenoms before him, Lawrie began to struggle as the league became more acquainted with him. In 162 games in the two seasons following his sparkling debut, Lawrie has posted a .710 OPS (.311 OBP) and an OPS+ of 91. While his defense has been sterling and continues to improve, the more difficult to master tool of hitting seemingly continues to slip away from him.<br />
<br />
Which brings me to my point, as much as I'm talking concentric circles around it: Baseball is hard. Really hard. It's harder than we as fans realize. Even more so, harder than some players realize.<br />
<br />
And if there is an existential quandary that is leading Brett Lawrie to mow further down into his nail beds, throw equipment hither and yon, pout intensely and point fingers at his teammates, it's might just fact that this game which he had mastered (well, somewhat) at most every level is suddenly beyond him at this point.<br />
<br />
Okay, let's slow down for a moment. We're moving into an area of speculative, long-distance psychology, and I'll cop to being on the shakiest of ground in proceeding down this train of thought. But given that Brett Lawrie's name has been often accompanied with a question mark in recent days, indulge me for a moment as I hypothesize on what's going on in his head, and where he needs to go to get through the other side. <br />
<br />
Here's the short form of how I think Brett Lawrie's mind works: "I want something, and if I want it bad enough, I've gotta go get it. Take it. It's mine if I want it." I base this on the "Never Surrender" tattoos, the times when he's been thrown out on the bases like a nincompoop, and often, the defiance in the post-game interviews when it all goes wrong.<br />
<br />
All of this adds up - in my mind, anyways - to a player who attacks the game. Takes no prisoners. Lays the smack down.<br />
<br />
But baseball is a game that doesn’t cotton to being attacked.<br />
<br />
It
requires a quiet, steady approach. A marksman’s still hand and slow heart
beat, not the furious anger of a shootist. It requires patience, not haste. An ability to let the game unfold as it will. A sense of perspective, and an ability to fail with grace.<br />
<br />
You gotta be chill, bro.<br />
<br />
The problem with this is that Brett Lawrie has been consistently rewarded for his unbridled enthusiasm. From the fans to the front office to his own father, Lawrie's single-minded competitiveness seems to be the attribute for which he is admired and rewarded.<br />
<br />
He became something close to a folk hero for throwing his body over barriers, regardless of the damage he caused to himself. People laugh at the notion that he pumps himself up with unhealthy amounts of caffeine in anticipation of a game, figuring that his jacked-up athlete's body will insulate him mood-altering doses of substance that affect the neurological and nervous systems.<br />
<br />
And then we wonder he's jumping at pitches. <br />
<br />
It could be that the most recent onslaught of negativity could provide the impetus for Lawrie to reevaluate his approach. Maybe this is a learning experience, and somehow, he can learn from the bad times and adapt his game appropriately.<br />
<br />
It wouldn't surprise me if he does. In spite of his dude-bro exterior, I've always suspected that there is a very clever and quick mind underneath it all. I think he can adapt, and I think he can transcend from the player that he has become to the player that he could very well be.<br />
<br />
But to get there, Lawrie has to want it. And you can't find stillness of mind with the body's hustle.Tao of Stiebhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12459135109404905466noreply@blogger.com7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2484762138483195409.post-47546146482463933622013-06-05T15:10:00.000-04:002013-06-05T15:13:18.392-04:00What Have We Learned So Far?<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi6PHRRc_Mbo6pSdxhiVuGTxmbFhe6GWu6KoJW1tMKjTaRSAXR05Qm64MrSyDR90h2QfIvviAjvA1P9Ax_igyxSs1F5Z4QzmboOLInzlet94ozmYxXHn1CgKt_7XvBLOI3osy8dXyeCwEOO/s1600/Chalkboard.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="262" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi6PHRRc_Mbo6pSdxhiVuGTxmbFhe6GWu6KoJW1tMKjTaRSAXR05Qm64MrSyDR90h2QfIvviAjvA1P9Ax_igyxSs1F5Z4QzmboOLInzlet94ozmYxXHn1CgKt_7XvBLOI3osy8dXyeCwEOO/s400/Chalkboard.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
In recent years, when the Blue Jays invariably get off to an underwhelming start, folks ask me: At what point does a bad start become a bad season? Is this really this bad? Or is it even worse than it seems?<br />
<br />
While I'm usually patient enough to see the season through - or at least beyond the All-Star Break - I've been known to tell people that they can ask me for my opinion on the state of the club sometime after June 1st. Sure, it's still too early, but maybe we'll have seen enough to at least discern something vaguely meaningful out of the season a third of the way in, right?<br />
<br />
As Aaron Neville might croon in falsetto, I don't know much. But here's what I think I've gleaned about this team after 58 games.<br />
<br />
<b>You Can't Live Without Starting Pitching</b>: It doesn't matter how many additions the Jays make to the roster, or how many new arms have been brought in to reinforce the pitching staff if they don't have good health.<br />
<br />
If your pitchers are inactive (Josh Johnson, J.A. Happ, Brandon Morrow) or ineffective because of injury (again, Morrow as well as R.A. Dickey), there's no amount of pre-season optimism that can backfill the gap left by these diminished returns and absenteeism. <br />
<br />
Whether if it is bad luck, a small sample or nagging injuries that are irritating the Jays' starters, the output has been far below expectations so far. Of the five pitchers in the rotation on Opening Day, only J.A. Happ has managed to keep his ERA below 5.00, and that's by a very slim margin indeed (4.91).<br />
<br />
Weirdly, their best starter - in a small sample and purely based on ERA - might have been Chad Jenkins in his three unexpected starts last month. That's probably not the way they drew it up in the front office. <br />
<br />
<b>Don't Hold Your Breath on Ricky Romero</b>: Without speaking in absolutes about whether if Romero's career is over - because that seems to be the perpetual question - it's safe to say that there are profound issues with the pitcher who was once the Jays' Opening Day starter.<br />
<br />
At the end of the 2011 season, it seemed as though Romero lost something, and I wrote it off to fatigue. I also probably gave him credit for gutting it out and persevering through when he didn't have his best stuff.<br />
<br />
But the ensuing season and this spring's near-meltdown only serve to reinforce that there is something amiss with Ricky Romero that mechanical tweaks and minor league assignments likely won't fix.<br />
<br />
Is it an injury? He had "minor" elbow surgery in the offseason, in addition to the platelet-rich injections that he received in his knees this spring. His delivery has increasingly looked like a collection of jerky component movements, though it was never the prettiest from the outset.<br />
<br />
I still have a suspicion that there is a shoulder issue, as Romero's release point looked to be affected at time last year, and wasn't consistent with the one he used in his better seasons.<br />
<br />
Whatever the case, it's probably best not to expect any positive input from Romero in any role with the team any time soon. <br />
<br />
<b>You Can Play A Lot of Positions Without Playing Them Well</b>: If there was one aspect of the Blue Jays that excited me in the offseason, it was the notion that the lineup would be tremendously flexible given the number of multi-position players who were acquired.<br />
<br />
Add in the number of switch-hitters, and it seemed like a roster that could not be game-planned into submission.<br />
<br />
The admiration of this adaptable roster probably had a lot to do with years of playing fantasy baseball, and drooling over players who were eligible to play in a number of position slots. <br />
<br />
But what has been striking is the degree to which those players are not actually trustworthy in the field. There was a lot of noise in the defensive metrics for players like Mark DeRosa, Maicer Izturis and Emilio Bonifacio, in part because those numbers are always hard to decipher or trust, and in part because they rarely played any position long enough in any given season to give a decent sample for what their respective capabilities were.<br />
<br />
But having seen them in action, it appears that both are best used as marginal second basemen, and in a real pinch, you might be able to swing them into short or third, but not for any amount of time. Bonifacio looked particularly out of place in the outfield, necessitating the early recall of Anthony Gose.<br />
<br />
What was a perceived strength is probably a bit of a weakness in the longer term.<br />
<br />
<b>Love the Long Ball. Loathe the Long Ball</b>: The Blue Jays are among leaders in home runs, and really, who doesn't enjoy themselves a good tater. With 73 round-trippers, the Blue Jays sit fourth in the majors.<br />
<br />
Edwin Encarnacion, José Bautista, J.P. Arencibia and even Colby Rasmus have been around the leaderboard in homers through the first third of the season, and while that doesn't guarantee 40 bombs or anything when it comes to wins, it should put to rest some of the long-standing gripes about the lack of power that the Jays have.<br />
<br />
It should, but it probably won't. That's the nature of gripes, I suppose. <br />
<br />
On the other hand, the Jays' starting pitchers are all giving up home runs at a rather alarming rate. Brandon Morrow's homer-to-flyball rate has always been a chink in his armour, and one which is glossed over by nerd stats that consider the conversion rate of the former to the latter as something of a streak of bad luck.<br />
<br />
Even if you doubt that formula, the fact that this number is climbing for Morrow (15.7%, up from a career rate of 9.7%) is not a happy development.<br />
<br />
Among the other starters, Johnson, Dickey and Buehrle are all posting a HR/FB rate in the 13% range (13.8%, 13.5% and 13.1% respectively.)<br />
<br />
<b>Brett Lawrie Is An Enigma</b>: But more on that tomorrow.<br />
<br />
<br />Tao of Stiebhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12459135109404905466noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2484762138483195409.post-51543063048538989612013-05-26T21:59:00.000-04:002013-05-26T21:59:10.415-04:00The Last Samurai<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-5vh-C4ojPNo/UaK9NgHeRPI/AAAAAAAAAOw/JQr5ClD366A/s1600/Kawasaki.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="284" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-5vh-C4ojPNo/UaK9NgHeRPI/AAAAAAAAAOw/JQr5ClD366A/s320/Kawasaki.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Photo courtesy the outstanding <a href="https://twitter.com/james_in_to" target="_blank">@james_in_to</a>'s <a href="http://www.flickr.com/photos/james_in_to/with/8848310336/" target="_blank">Flickr</a> stream.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
Every now and then, I'll do a quick search through the MLB.com archives and re-watch <a href="http://toronto.bluejays.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=9201989" target="_blank">John McDonald's Father's Day</a> home run in 2010. If you're not familiar with the <a href="http://ca.sports.yahoo.com/mlb/blog/big_league_stew/post/For-you-Dad-McDonald-homers-in-first-AB-since-?urn=mlb,250071" target="_blank">story behind it</a>, you can <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rEUXF_ooNyE" target="_blank">do it now</a>. I'll wait here.<br />
<br />
I love that moment. In the middle of June, a Sunday afternoon that saw Jays pitching give up homers to Aubrey Huff, Freddy Sanchez and Pat Burrell in <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/TOR/TOR201006200.shtml" target="_blank">a 9-6 loss</a>, many fans were given a poignant reminder of why for so long, they were so attached to a good-field-no-hit utility infielder. Even knowing his bat was more likely to be knocked out of his hands than to produce runs, many of us still swooned over the surprising range and lightning-quick hands he displayed in a Jays uniform. It was the unlikeliness and unexpectedness of that homer, the fact it came from John McDonald, that made it so special.<br />
<br />
If you understood his limitations, you might be willing to look past them. If you didn't, you might be easily persuaded he was a better player than he was. When pressed into something close to full-time duty, he was frequently adequate, occasionally dazzling, and usually made us happy even in failure. When he left because he wasn't needed anymore, as players like John McDonald inevitably do, all it did was raise <a href="http://www.thestar.com/sports/baseball/2011/11/03/dbacks_made_johnny_mac_an_offer_he_couldnt_refuse.html" target="_blank">questions about if he would come back</a>.<br />
<br />
But Toronto was shopping for something better in the middle infield, and particularly at shortstop, which had been a bit of black hole for a decade or so until Yunel Escobar landed in their laps and seemed to have put things in a more stable state. When it was discovered last year that the words "Yunel Escobar" and "stable state" should never appear in the same sentence together, they traded up to the dynamic Jose Reyes, who promptly maimed himself.<br />
<br />
All of which brings us to the inimitable Munenori Kawasaki. I'm not sure Kawasaki has quite earned the "journeyman" tag the way McDonald had, given his long prior career in Japan and only one full MLB season under his belt. Yet here he is, 31 years old and pressed into something close to full-time major league shortstop duty for the first time, in the absence of any better options. John Gibbons, who was around during part of John McDonald's Toronto tenure, has run him out there regularly, I'm sure knowing full well that this is a player who, albeit in only 226 plate appearances entering today's game, has posted an OPS 46 points <i>lower</i> than our offensively-challenged Johnny Mac.<br />
<br />
And yet, he continues to fascinate. That's the right word, I think. I can't say "amaze", because his actual performance falls well short of that. I can't say "surprise", because while his numbers are a little better than what he showed last year in Seattle, we're still not within a large enough sample to determine what the mean is, and whether he needs to get better or worse to regress to it.<br />
<br />
I'd resisted writing a post about Kawasaki, despite my enthusiasm for him. Not to put too fine a point on it, but my enjoyment of his presence was mostly because he was a <a href="http://blogs.thescore.com/djf/2013/04/16/7-reasons-to-love-munenori-kawasaki/" target="_blank">.gif-able novelty</a>. But as time has progressed, I didn't want to fall into a trap of thinking he's something he isn't, or make a case for him to stick around much longer than it takes for Jose Reyes' ankle ligaments to heal. <br />
<br />
Non-baseball fan the Org Wife, on the other hand, is going to be crestfallen when, as players like Munenori Kawasaki inevitably do, he leaves because he isn't needed anymore. She loves the guy. Today, after he cracked a slicing double to cap a <a href="http://toronto.bluejays.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=27464069&c_id=mlb" target="_blank">dramatic walk-off win</a>, and then went viral with the goofiest, most charming, <a href="http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/05/26/munenori-kawasakis-incredible-post-game-interview/" target="_blank">most incredible post-game interview</a> you could imagine, it's hard not to find myself inching closer into the Org Wife's camp, and I suspect I'm not alone. Something tells me in three years, I'll be searching through the MLB.com archives for video of that inside-out drive into the left-centerfield gap, and that celebration. His teammates loved it. The fans loved it. I loved it. How could you not?<br />
<br />
He's probably going to be gone soon. It would be easier to not miss our replacement/utility middle infielders if we picked them more like the way we should pick out our neckties: noticeable, but not memorable. But what fun would that be?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2484762138483195409.post-19304377205532157822013-05-17T13:28:00.001-04:002013-05-17T13:39:03.149-04:00Tao's Tweet Bag - Pertinent Questions, Flippant Answers<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhCJycr2-VZvX7O2ulySy7QJT-GZbrAGjF_cUxO-QtRn4qS2mukLcef8P_9cLKEHl81D7Kr59WZhgt8hk5mBHLzAHOgDNAPvEI-Rf94pD_PTZAprOHV528-HAMaUPf13CmNceVsQM03Urlh/s1600/CanadaPost.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhCJycr2-VZvX7O2ulySy7QJT-GZbrAGjF_cUxO-QtRn4qS2mukLcef8P_9cLKEHl81D7Kr59WZhgt8hk5mBHLzAHOgDNAPvEI-Rf94pD_PTZAprOHV528-HAMaUPf13CmNceVsQM03Urlh/s320/CanadaPost.jpg" width="312" /></a></div>
Well, hello chums, and welcome to the inaugural Tweet Bag of the 2013 season. Has it really taken this long into the schedule to churn out one of these posts?<br />
<br />
Well, yes...but consider the toxicity of the conversation over the past few weeks, and you'll understand why this semi-regular post was delayed until the team managed to string together a couple of wins. I assume you'll understand. Friendsies?<br />
<br />
Okay, on with your questions:<br />
<br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-conversation="none" data-partner="tweetdeck">
@<a href="https://twitter.com/taoofstieb">taoofstieb</a> does the Josh Johnson injury situation make it more or less likely that he remains a Blue Jay? <a href="https://twitter.com/search/%23TaoBag">#TaoBag</a><br />
— Ken Peterson (@Kenjamin12) <a href="https://twitter.com/Kenjamin12/status/335396274100658176">May 17, 2013</a></blockquote>
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script>This question has been asked many times in recent weeks, and I tend to slough it off out of hand. I understand that there is the temptation to look at Josh Johnson like a dented can of soup on which we might be able to get a snazzy discount, but is it really worth it? Who likes dented soup?<br />
<br />
But since you asked nicely, allow me to expand.<br />
<br />
Firstly, it should be said that we don't really know what to make of Josh Johnson's injury because he's fully mired in it at this time. The moment of truth will come when he returns - whenever that happens - when we get to see how he looks when he's back to something resembling passable health.<br />
<br />
If Josh Johnson returns and he's good, then you should probably kiss him goodbye. The Jays have a lot of money for the ensuing years already owed, and Johnson will be looking for more years than a reasonable team should give him. Which won't stop some damn fool team from handing him a contract for too much money and too many years.<br />
<br />
There is a scenario where Josh Johnson misses a long stretch this season - maybe well past the point where he'd be tradeable - where the Jays could make him a qualifying offer for one year. And if that were to come to pass and he accepted, then we can recycle this answer a year from now.<br />
<br />
Onward!<br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-partner="tweetdeck">
Who is worse? JPA or Colby? <a href="https://twitter.com/search/%23TaoBag">#TaoBag</a><br />
— Morgan Burton (@MorganBurton) <a href="https://twitter.com/MorganBurton/status/335397498749333505">May 17, 2013</a></blockquote>
You know, you could have asked "Who's better?" That might have been nice.<br />
<br />
But
since you asked: I tend to be focused on strikeout and walk rates when
evaluating players lately, and neither JPA nor Colby are especially
flattered by those numbers. JPA has struck out in a third (literally,
33.3%) of his at bats, while Colby has whiffed in an astonishing 40.7%
of his at bats.<br />
<br />
Colby has managed to convert some deep
counts into bases on balls, walking in 8.6% of his trips to the plate.
At the same time, Arencibia has walked twice. Two times. One time in the
second game of the season, and then one other time against Baltimore.
But in his last 20 games, he has not let a pitcher offer him a free
pass.<br />
<br />
Maybe he's just in a hurry to get back to the dugout to put his catching gear back on.<br />
<br />
Yes,
JPA has the second best isolated power on the Jays at the moment
(.257), but Colby isn't far behind (.190), and offers vastly superior
defense at a premium position. So I'll say Colby. Dang.<br />
<br />
May I have another?<br />
<br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-conversation="none" data-partner="tweetdeck">
@<a href="https://twitter.com/taoofstieb">taoofstieb</a> What is your opinion on Munenori Kawasaki and how long he will remain with the team <a href="https://twitter.com/search/%23taobag">#taobag</a><br />
— Matt G (@MattG_12) <a href="https://twitter.com/MattG_12/status/335400003960971264">May 17, 2013</a></blockquote>
I understand that Kawasaki is an endearing player, and that his various antics and rituals have led to a streak of genuine affection from a certain portion of the fanbase. People dig plucky dudes.<br />
<br />
Moreover, there are aspects of Kawasaki's game which were lacking in the Jays' lineup early on. This includes the ability to draw a walk, of which he has 11, or nine more than JPA in less than half the plate appearances. He also has the ability to get his bat on the ball, as evidenced by a stupendous 93.2% contact rate (4th in MLB among players with 80 or more PAs).<br />
<br />
The biggest problem, though, is that Kawasaki doesn't hit the ball hard. At all. His .279 slugging percentage lags far behind his .337 OBP, and while he's managed to swipe five bags and only get caught once, there are limits to how productive you can be slapping the ball weakly around the field.<br />
<br />
I'm also not a huge proponent of his defensive skills, though he plays short well enough to get by. <br />
<br />
My suspicion is that once José Reyes returns, we won't miss Kawasaki's outsized personality that much.<br />
<br />
A few quick ones to close us out...<br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-partner="tweetdeck">
If the Yanks don't resign Cano, could you see the Jays getting involved? <a href="https://twitter.com/search/%23TaoBag">#TaoBag</a><br />
— Jeffrey Dyck (@jeffreyldyck) <a href="https://twitter.com/jeffreyldyck/status/335428291043393537">May 17, 2013</a></blockquote>
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script>I really like Robinson Cano, but know this: There is no amount of money that the Jays could offer Robinson Cano that the Yankees would not match. The only team that I could envision stealing Cano away is the Dodgers, but even they have their limits.<br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-partner="tweetdeck">
How long can Ramon Ortiz keep this up? Predictions/guesses for the season? <a href="https://twitter.com/search/%23TaoBag">#TaoBag</a><br />
— Darren Priest (@dpriest) <a href="https://twitter.com/dpriest/status/335430052852416512">May 17, 2013</a></blockquote>
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script>Maybe one more start. Or two. But probably not. He's walked between the raindrops in his first two starts. Though throwing strikes is always appreciated.<br />
<br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-partner="tweetdeck">
What has to happen to get the Argos out of Rogers centre? <a href="https://twitter.com/search/%23TaoBag">#TaoBag</a><br />
— Andrew Glynn (@Andrew_Glynn) <a href="https://twitter.com/Andrew_Glynn/status/335426792821235713">May 17, 2013</a></blockquote>
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script>I think Rogers would have to lean on the Argos to find another place to play. It's an open question as to whether if that's something they really want, or if the 10-12 dates per year are worth enough to Rogers to tolerate the inconvenience. My guess is that the successful Grey Cup might have softened their resolve to get the Argos out, if that was even on their agenda.<br />
<br />
And that's about what we can squeeze in for today. Thanks for the questions, and apologies to those whose questions were too smart for me to answer with some diminished capacity today. Cheers, and enjoy your long weekend.Tao of Stiebhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12459135109404905466noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2484762138483195409.post-77830140811086189402013-05-13T14:40:00.000-04:002013-05-13T14:40:21.426-04:00Glimmering Slivers of Light<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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Few wold have imagined at the outset of the season that the Blue Jays would find themselves sitting nine games under .500. Fewer still would have imagined that they would be able to find the bright side in that sad state of affairs.<br />
<br />
And yet, the 4-3 road trip capped by a decisive and dingerlicious win over the loathsome Red Sox helps to let in the slightest glimmers of light into what has been an awfully dark season to date.<br />
<br />
That's not to suggest that a series win and a series split against two AL East rivals constitute some sort of spectacular rolling tide of awesomeness that the Jays can ride well into October. But after spending much of six weeks mired in omnishambles, it was a relief to see something approaching the quality of team that fans anticipated in the offseason as they gazed longingly into magazine covers and replays of former glories and specially-commissioned Blue Jays documentary programming.<br />
<br />
Even though the team has thus far fallen short of expectations, there are enough specks of light to create a very modest measure of optimism.<br />
<br />
If you wanted to focus on the bright side, you could look at some of the impressive counting stats that the team has amassed, even through the bad times. As of the close of business on Sunday, the Jays led the Majors in homers (51) and were tied for the lead in stolen bases (29).<br />
<br />
The Blue Jays still strike out too much - 309 times thus far, tied for 5th worst in MLB - and don't walk as much as they could - 115 so far, tied for 16th. But both of those numbers have improved in recent weeks, giving the sense that just maybe this team isn't as bad as they've seemed. <br />
<br />
That point might seem obvious to some, but consider the drastic measures that were being suggested by some in the initial weeks of the season when just about everything went wrong. If the foundation of the argument for firing the manager/trading José Bautista/firing the GM/moving the team to Albuquerque was that they were as bad as they seemed, then hopefully some marginal improvements and creeping back towards the mean will help to quiet those sort of entreaties.<br />
<br />
Over the past 14 days, the Blue Jays have posted a .321 OBP, as opposed to the .294 mark they put up in April. They've also shown a better walk rate (8.8% vs. 7.5%) and strike out rate (19.4% vs. 21.8%.) Those differences aren't staggering, but over the course of a season, a percentage point or two in the right direction on those stats can lead to extra runs and - hopefully - extra wins. <br />
<br />
The pitching is a whole other kettle of messy and unpalatable stew at this point, and the passable performances of Ramon Ortiz and Chad Jenkins don't seem like a long term strategy to help make up the lost ground and chip away at the team's deficits. But with some marginal improvements on offense and something resembling a return to good health for the rotation, maybe the Jays can chug-a-chug their way like the little engine towards a season that isn't a bitter disappointment.<br />
<br />
How's that for optimism?Tao of Stiebhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12459135109404905466noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2484762138483195409.post-74030479713819678772013-05-05T20:24:00.000-04:002013-05-05T20:24:46.372-04:00Stop Digging<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Q0x99RDQEtI/UYb31lx8-pI/AAAAAAAAAOc/OUqOAkVRe8Y/s1600/stopdigging.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Q0x99RDQEtI/UYb31lx8-pI/AAAAAAAAAOc/OUqOAkVRe8Y/s320/stopdigging.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
The last time I showed my face around these parts, it was to be as <a href="http://taoofstieb.blogspot.ca/2013/04/next-man-up.html" target="_blank">cautiously reassuring as possible</a> about the lengthy injury the Toronto Blue Jays starting shortstop had just incurred. That was a simpler time, wasn't it? It really <b>was</b> early then -- a mere ten games into the season, when we all innocently believed a slow start would right itself quickly, and that despite the departure of an offensive catalyst at the top of the lineup, the remaining talent on the roster would shine through.<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
It's been a bit of a blur for me since, I'll confess. Even if I hadn't watched the previous evening's loss, the day in, day out jabs from co-workers about whether I was worried yet served as reminders that the team was still struggling to string anything positive together. I'm a guy who spends way more time than is healthy paying attention to the things that happen with this team, and it's even been hard for me to grit my teeth and shake off another series dropped. My alternative has been to simply zone out a little bit. I'll go play for my own softball team or get some yard work done and not feel too terribly if I've happened to choose to do so on a day when they decide to take a 10-run shit-canning.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
But they do have a way of pulling you back in, do they not, these Jays? This frustrating, fascinating team provided yet another glimpse on Sunday of just what they can bring to the table. Brandon Morrow went eight innings and had one rough one among them, from which he escaped admirably. They hit line drives and deep flies, they ran the bases relentlessly, and they came away with ten runs.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
So, you know, "Today was a good day," he said to nobody in particular, ironically in the same manner of the spouse of a terminal patient providing comfort to visiting relatives.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
But recoveries, even the unlikeliest ones, all begin with a good day. What you're hoping for is for the good days to start outnumbering the bad days, and for the bad days to get a little more bearable each time. One good day isn't enough, but it's better than the alternative and better still if the next day follows suit.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Jesus, that sounds pretty melodramatic just reading it back to myself, but here we are. The 2013 Toronto Blue Jays aren't a terminal patient just yet, but the vehicle that hit them wasn't just a freakin' Smart Car making a slow right turn through the crosswalk either. They've been thumped handily on at least four separate occasions, and when they've been close, as Jose Bautista said, every little mistake they've made seems to have cost them a game. They consistently leave themselves very little margin for error, which can make life in the big leagues pretty difficult.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
While I'm on a roll with the overwrought metaphors: you can subscribe to the theory that they've dug themselves a bit of a hole from which they can climb out. Maybe you're more extreme -- maybe it's a canyon in your view, from which they may only hope to scale their way to some middling plateau. Maybe you think they've crashed to earth with such velocity that the resulting wreckage is not only incapable of emerging from the smouldering crater it created, but that any salvageable bits should be sold for scrap.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Me? I just want them to stop digging.</div>
Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2484762138483195409.post-54382327418419746082013-04-29T13:42:00.001-04:002013-04-29T13:42:20.724-04:00Winning Don't Come Easy<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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So, how's your dream season treating you? Are we having fun yet?<br />
<br />
Over the first four weeks of the season, I've found myself stifling the impulse - sometimes successfully - to lecture fans like a scolding auntie. "Don't throw paper airplanes!" "Stop booing your own players!" "Cheer in anticipation, not just in reaction!" "It's early!"<br />
<br />
Nag, nag, nag.<br />
<br />
Mostly, though, I've tried to resist the urge to harangue fans for the manner in which they express themselves, because really, who am I to say how you should cheer on your team? Or maybe more to the point, who am I to tell you how you should express your outrage at how the season has unfolded thus far?<br />
<br />
At the same time, it seems as if the Jays' floundering start to the schedule has made a vocal portion of the fanbase go positively loony. Observing what happens when outlandish preseason expectations collide violently with a poor start is the stuff of which Funniest Home Videos are made.<br />
<br />
Still, if you count yourself among the patient or rational at this point, it's getting harder to maintain a position that we'll soon return to something resembling normalcy. In fact, if my Twitter interactions are any way to gauge the conversation - they're probably not, but play along - then anyone who shows something less than outright rage towards the team gets assailed as a simpleton and an apologist. <br />
<br />
And look: I get it. This has been one of the most disheartening starts to a season in recent memory, which is only magnified by that initial excitement. There's 20 years of pent up enthusiasm waiting to be unleashed, but over the first month, we've been treated to some underwhelming pitching, awful fielding and offense that is seemingly incapable of sustaining a rally more than once per week.<br />
<br />
Yes, it's been some nasty-looking baseball in the early-going. But one of the things that some fans forget about baseball over the long winter is that the game is replete with negative outcomes. It's really the nature of the sport that success is often a function of just not failing.<br />
<br />
This certainly runs counter to the way in which we discuss sports, especially in Canada. Our winter pastime is so overrun with conventional wisdom that many of us fall into the trap of addressing sports in absolute terms. "You gotta," as they say.<br />
<br />
"You gotta catch that." "You gotta hit with runners in scoring position." "You gotta take your bat off your shoulders." "You gotta beat those teams."<br />
<br />
But the fact is that baseball - perhaps more than any other sport - resists those absolutist tropes. Good players make bad plays. Bad players have good at bats. Bad teams beat good teams. Bad pitchers strike out good hitters. Good teams have bad weeks, and bad months, and even bad seasons.<br />
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Take, for instance, the 1986 Blue Jays. Coming off their first playoff appearance and a 99-win season, the almost identical team won 13 fewer games. They scored marginally more runs, but almost every starting pitcher had a down year the following year. Same set of people, with presumably the same skills as the year before, but lesser results. It happens.<br />
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What we've seen thus shouldn't be taken to represent what the rest of the season will look like. Though this team has far underperformed over the first weeks, there is so much more baseball to play yet, as tiresome as it is to hear that said repeatedly. I get tired of saying it. <br />
<br />
And we shouldn't forget that winning is a painful process in baseball. Few teams ever truly run away with a division, or clinch a playoff berth with ease. Even for the best teams, it's always a long and agonizing season, filled with bad series and bad breaks and injuries and ump shows and dunderheaded managerial decisions. <br />
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To be a baseball fan, you have to embrace the agony.Tao of Stiebhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12459135109404905466noreply@blogger.com7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2484762138483195409.post-28151718985196261822013-04-15T23:21:00.001-04:002013-04-15T23:28:58.434-04:0037 Jays - J.P. Arencibia is a Handsome Enigma<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiCIvivlS2zmne4jdxF4GLh4oV-YlvSKc3ANFBIm0yIcCIfzLD32QxFgWrZqXuJT6NHHclEe4Y5S9-6JuJKdjjB1mjsttRF1XgePOqZe7q2Mg15QuTXGINh6TWUgwyQQniyhlejkYTlRm-7/s1600/jp-arencibia-hunting.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiCIvivlS2zmne4jdxF4GLh4oV-YlvSKc3ANFBIm0yIcCIfzLD32QxFgWrZqXuJT6NHHclEe4Y5S9-6JuJKdjjB1mjsttRF1XgePOqZe7q2Mg15QuTXGINh6TWUgwyQQniyhlejkYTlRm-7/s400/jp-arencibia-hunting.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
<b>Who</b>: Jonathan Paul Arencibia. Call him J.P.. Catcher. Tweeter. Bon vivant. Heartthrob. Six feet tall, 200 lbs. Bats and throws right-handed. Twenty-seven years old. Sports jersey number 9.<br />
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<b>Provenance</b>: Miami, Florida, where he attended Westminster Christian, the same high school as Doug Mientkiewicz...oh, and Alex Rodriguez too. Drafted by the Blue Jays with the 21st pick of the 2007 amateur draft. Made his big league debut on August 7, 2010. <br />
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<b>Contract Status</b>: Signed a one-year, $505,600 deal in January. Is arbitration eligible for the first time after this season. <br />
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<b>Back of the Baseball Card</b>: In 242 games through from 2010 through last year, posted a .275 OBP and .433 slugging. Hit 43 taters. <br />
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<b>Recent Numbers</b>: In 2012, Arencibia struck out in 29% of his plate appearances while walking in 4.8%. In 49 plate appearances this year, Arencibia has struck out 19 times and walked once. With four handsome dingers.<br />
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<b>Injury History</b>: Hit the DL for the first time as a big leaguer in July of 2012 after a foul ball fractured his throwing hand. Missed 43 days, ushering in the brief Jeff Mathis Era that will go down in Blue Jays catching lore.<br />
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<b>Looking Back</b>: One of the most popular Blue Jays in recent memory, J.P. Arencibia is one of the more maddening Blue Jays to appraise.<br />
<br />
Arencibia reutation is as a hit-first catcher, but his bat is sketchy at best. There were 13 MLB catchers with more than 850 plate appearances in 2011 and 2012, and among that group, J.P. Arencibia ranks 13th in strikeout rate, 11th in walk rate, and 13th in on-base percentage. <br />
<br />
At the same time, it's problematic to get a decent metric to provide a
adequate assessment of a catcher's defensive value - not to mention
their game-calling - so pinning down how much JPA's squatting makes up
for his whiffing is nearly impossible. There's some consensus that Arencibia is a below average receiver, though that estimation is based on the "eye test". You could probably find a slew of people to tell you that their eyes see a devilishly handsome Gold Glover behind the plate. Go figure.<br />
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What is beyond debate is that J.P. Arencibia hit home runs.Over those two seasons, he hit 41 homers, good enough for fourth on the aforementioned list of catchers, and with significantly fewer plate appearances than the three players - Matt Wieters (45), Carlos Santana (45) and Brian McCann (44) - ahead of him.<br />
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<b><b>First Impressions and </b>Looking Ahead</b>: True to form, Arencibia has begun the 2013 season by hitting homers while striking out a lot and not walking much. Sure, it's a small sample size, but it sufficiently resembles what we've seen from him previously to ask the question again: Is Arencibia good enough behind the plate to allow the Jays to play his bat 80% of the time?<br />
<br />
Is the plus power coupled with the maybe-okay defensive skills enough to make him a viable full player now? And what about in the future? J.P. reaches his arbitration eligibility after this year, and while few players ever end up getting to the salary arbitrator's table, those long balls would go even further when it comes cashing in through that process. If he's not the long term solution, would the Jays be willing to look for an upgrade this season?<br />
<br />
There are few who talk as good a game as J.P.. He is a supremely confident player, and his bravado is even hard to resist for those of us hardened by the cold winds of logic or reason. Still, his results this year need to improve if the Jays are to make a serious run at the postseason.<br />
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<b>Optimistically</b>: In his 27 year-old season, begins to raise his offensive game to a new level, walking more and whiffing less. Meanwhile, plays a crucial role in managing the pitching staff and improves his pitch framing.<br />
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<b>Pessimistically</b>: Is a one-tool catcher who makes a lot of outs in the middle of the lineup.
Tao of Stiebhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12459135109404905466noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2484762138483195409.post-15031446227143219552013-04-15T00:00:00.000-04:002013-04-15T00:01:34.957-04:0037 Jays - Emilio Bonifacio Is What He Is...Which Is What, Exactly?<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjaomzisRbkMOI2Mfm1Sfz7sAWXsYEaxZOuyAWprgu1_8udds7p3HpgcEziCrfLYC0LsV4dYbLgipK9BnAaOyamrcs3VS0sx8j4QyzaKMIgt71fnK31hL6VyqLLTxhKFwobjn6wLdV-F4IL/s1600/bonifacio-emilio.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="292" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjaomzisRbkMOI2Mfm1Sfz7sAWXsYEaxZOuyAWprgu1_8udds7p3HpgcEziCrfLYC0LsV4dYbLgipK9BnAaOyamrcs3VS0sx8j4QyzaKMIgt71fnK31hL6VyqLLTxhKFwobjn6wLdV-F4IL/s400/bonifacio-emilio.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
<b>Who</b>: Number 1 in your program - and shurely(!) in your hearts - Emilio Bonifacio. Utility infielder. Well, sorta. Also, kind of a utility outfielder, if necessary. Switch-hitter. Five-foot-eleven, 205 lbs. Age 27.<br />
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<b>Provenance</b>: Santo Domingo, Dominicana. Signed in 2001 as an amateur free agent by the Arizona Diamondbacks. Made his Major League debut in September 2007 with the D-Backs. Acquired by the Blue Jays from the Marlins as part of "that deal".<br />
<br />
<b>Contract Status</b>: Signed a one-year, $2.6 milion deal to avoid arbitration in January. Is arb eligible after this season as well. Will become a free agent after 2014.<br />
<br />
<b>Back of the Baseball Card</b>: Stole 110 bases over six seasons, including 70 over his last 915 plate appearances in 2011-12. Need more? Fine then. Has put up a vaguely respectable .329 OBP alongside a rather flimsy .343 slugging in 1878 plate appearances. Seven dingers. <br />
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<b>2012 Numbers</b>: In 64 games with the Marlins, put up a .330 OBP and .316 slugging. Stole 30 bags. <br />
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<b>Injury History</b>: Ended his 2012 season with a sprained right knee in August. Also had surgery on his thumb last season, which sidelined him for two separate DL stints.<br />
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<b>Looking Back and First Impressions</b>: When the Blue Jays made their monumental deal with the Marlins, Emilio Bonifacio was a lesser but still intriguing piece of the return. It might be trite to call Bonifacio a "jack of all trades", but with his ability to hit from both sides of the plate and play almost anywhere on the diamond, his mere inclusion in the deal added to the Jays' roster flexibility. <br />
<br />
Coming off an injury-plagued season, it was easy to gloss over the most recent offensive output, which was less than inspiring, especially if you let your eye find the gaudy numbers under the steals column. Moreover, a career season in 2011 in which he finagled his way into a full-time role through injuries to Hanley Ramirez and Twitter-inspired demotions for Logan Morrison.<br />
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Bonifacio made the most of that opportunity, posting a .753 OPS (.360 OBP / .393 SLG), including a handsome .376 OBP as a leadoff hitter. That last note might put rest to a question for the skipper that popped up over the last two days, as the injury to Jose Reyes saw him shifted back into that leadoff role, at least temporarily. <br />
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With more opportunities to see Bonifacio over the past week, the initial impressions are much less endearing. Beyond the obvious butchery in the infield on defense, his swing seems more apt for a lumberjack competition than the top of the order for a putative contender.<br />
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<b>Looking Ahead</b>: With the injury to Reyes, there are holes to be plugged in the starting nine for the next three months (or more). While John Gibbons has already shown a willingness to mix up the lineup depending on the day's circumstances, Bonifacio might still angle his way into significant playing time, if not 500 plate appearances. <br />
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On one hand, that's surely good for him. Players want to play. But as <a href="https://twitter.com/thegrumpyowl/status/323470611571695616" target="_blank">author Ryan Oakley (@thegrumpyowl) noted via tweet over the weekend</a>, Bonifacio might benefit from a relegation to the bench, where his value as a late inning replacement and pinch-runner would not be undercut by the weaknesses that are exposed in the everyday role.<br />
<br />
"Right now, he's a monkey wrench as a hammer," Oakley argued.<br />
<br />
<b>Optimistically</b>: With great opportunity comes great productivity. Bonifacio posts an OBP over .350 with enough extra bases tossed in to help the Jays stay afloat until Reyes' return.<br />
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<b>Pessimistically</b>: The Jays are left to rely on him, but can't find places to hide his glove in the field or his flimsy bat in the lineup.
Tao of Stiebhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12459135109404905466noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2484762138483195409.post-12898891175875432332013-04-13T21:43:00.000-04:002013-04-13T21:47:39.093-04:00Next Man Up<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-TIL1l3ZIDg8/UWoJacn7lHI/AAAAAAAAAOI/i5ATp6nK3AU/s1600/jose.jpeg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="213" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-TIL1l3ZIDg8/UWoJacn7lHI/AAAAAAAAAOI/i5ATp6nK3AU/s320/jose.jpeg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Image via www.kansascity.com</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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Believe it or not, I follow other sports besides baseball. I love hockey, golf, rugby, and I can even get myself interested in soccer during World Cup or Euro time. And like millions of other red-blooded North American males, I love football too.</div>
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There's a fascinating book called <u><a href="http://www.amazon.com/Next-Man-Up-Behind-Todays/dp/0316013285" target="_blank">Next Man Up</a></u>, written by John Feinstein, in which the author was given nearly unprecedented behind-the-scenes access to a full season of an NFL team -- the 2004 Baltimore Ravens. The title is a reference to the philosophy that permeates football teams when it comes to injuries. Here's how Feinstein prefaces the book and the reason for the title:</div>
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<i>"</i><i>Football</i><i> </i><i>is</i><i> </i><i>an</i><i> </i><i>unrelentingly</i><i> </i><i>punishing</i><i> </i><i>sport</i><i>, </i><i>and</i><i> </i><i>every</i><i> </i><i>NFL</i><i> </i><i>team</i><i> </i><i>prepares</i><i> </i><i>constantly</i><i> </i><i>for</i><i> </i><i>the</i><i> </i><i>likelihood</i><i> </i><i>--</i><i> </i><i>the</i><i> </i><i>certainty</i><i> </i><i>--</i><i> </i><i>that</i><i> </i><i>even</i><i> </i><i>franchise</i><i> </i><i>players</i><i> </i><i>can</i><i> </i><i>go</i><i> </i><i>down</i><i> </i><i>at</i><i> </i><i>any</i><i> </i><i>time</i><i>. </i><i>Someone</i><i> </i><i>new</i><i> </i><i>must</i><i> </i><i>always</i><i> </i><i>be</i><i> </i><i>ready</i><i>, </i><i>trained</i><i>, </i><i>and</i><i> </i><i>primed</i><i> </i><i>to</i><i> </i><i>step</i><i> </i><i>in</i><i> </i><i>at</i><i> </i><i>a</i><i> </i><i>moment's</i><i> notice.</i><i><br /></i><i></i></blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<i>"</i><i>In</i><i> </i><i>the</i><i> </i><i>NFL</i><i> </i><i>there</i><i> </i><i>is</i><i> </i><i>only</i><i> </i><i>one</i><i> </i><i>sure</i><i> </i><i>thing</i><i>: </i><i>every</i><i> </i><i>day, </i><i>someone</i><i> </i><i>will</i><i> </i><i>have</i><i> </i><i>to</i><i> </i><i>be</i><i> </i><i>the</i><i> </i><i>Next</i><i> </i><i>Man</i><i> </i><i>Up</i><i>."</i></blockquote>
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In a football application, it's a cruel yet efficient philosophy. Football is a game in which a hundred moving parts interact with one another on any given play from scrimmage, and even a dozen small individual failures within a play can still produce a successful team result, if the other team has more of those individual failures on that particular snap of the ball. So outside of some key positions, a starter can be injured, and his small part in the offensive or defensive scheme can be assumed by an inferior player. You can lose a starting left offensive guard, and his backup might not be as capable, but you can adjust blocking schemes to ensure the center and the left tackle help him out in pass protection. You can lose a first string wide receiver, and adjust by running the ball a bit more, or throwing more passes to other receivers. There will be an impact on team performance, but the system is designed to absorb that impact. </div>
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The difference in baseball, of course, is that every play on the field really only involves a few people at a time. The outcome of each -- or more pertinently, the aggregate outcome of all of them over the season -- can be more significantly affected by the skill levels of those involved. That is to say, 550 plate appearances from Jose Reyes are far more likely to contribute more to the success over the course of the year than the same number given to, say, Pete Kozma. An entire area of study has in fact been dedicated to understanding and quantifying these contributions.</div>
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Replacing regular, outstanding contributors in baseball is tough, because not only are you replacing them with inferior players -- usually of the dreaded "replacement level" variety -- but the players remaining can't just cover off the gap created. Those teammates are what they are and they contribute what they contribute. You can't game plan your way around a significant injury by putting a greater emphasis on other talent. You still only get to bat once out of every nine spots, and balls are still going to get hit to the area that's been vacated by the injured starter.</div>
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So what do you do if you're a baseball general manager to prepare for the eventuality of injuries to your starters? You can't stockpile first-tier players three deep at every position throughout your organization. Your replacement players are, more often than not, going to be replacement level.</div>
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But what you can do is endeavour to make sure the rest of the roster is as thoroughly well-constructed as possible. You can build in versatility in the infield with veterans, perhaps not all-stars but solid major leaguers, who have played all positions in case one goes down. You can make savvy free agent signings and secure contract extensions for run producers in the heart of your lineup, ensuring that in the largest number of spots in the order as possible, players will be getting on base, hitting for power and scoring runs. You can remain vigilant on the waiver wire, and execute cheap acquisitions of players that can potentially fill a key role either temporarily or longer term. You can accumulate the kind of prospect depth that allows you to trade for proven, high-level pitching talent, making your starting rotation superior to most competitors and putting your team in a better position to win games day after day. You can bring in a manager who understands how to maximize the impact of the talent you've assembled, with smart use of platoons and the bullpen.</div>
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You're not going to prevent the worst from happening, but you can prepare for it and insulate your team from its worst potential effects. You control what you can control, and plan for what's quantifiable.</div>
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And then, at a certain point, you leave it in the hands of the team you've assembled. You count on what isn't quantifiable -- the mental strength to play three months without a key offensive catalyst and thrive under the challenge; the drive of your players to be better than they have been because now they need to be; the ingenuity of your manager to put the best shine possible on the gold he has, and spin a little bit more gold from the straw he has alongside it.</div>
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Three months without Jose Reyes is a brutal blow. I'm not trying to sugarcoat it. But all the things Alex Anthopoulos did right to prepare the 2013 Toronto Blue Jays for success are still, mostly, there. This injury is exactly why, if you're going to make a serious push, you don't go halfway. </div>
Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2484762138483195409.post-75696977663191487682013-04-11T00:51:00.000-04:002013-04-11T07:39:29.427-04:00Patience is the hardest of virtues<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgXWwoZBld0_AnfkQ8_EoT7yiJur5RvQnW3FXzRzsnxrSO51BknuH72tn_Zx9NthjJCiWHDPAPEL2QsGO6Np1Zz89W6yeBZW80CPaaLwWjuvLACZSzVPdHDwQ2HY2xzRdEWB-7OZH4qoasR/s1600/Guns-N-Roses-Patience.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgXWwoZBld0_AnfkQ8_EoT7yiJur5RvQnW3FXzRzsnxrSO51BknuH72tn_Zx9NthjJCiWHDPAPEL2QsGO6Np1Zz89W6yeBZW80CPaaLwWjuvLACZSzVPdHDwQ2HY2xzRdEWB-7OZH4qoasR/s1600/Guns-N-Roses-Patience.jpg" /></a></div><br />
<em>(That's Axl Rose. Because he was rad back then. If only I had the photoshop skills to turn that into a Blue Jays cap... )</em><br />
<br />
Confession time: <br />
<br />
Sometimes I hate Blue Jay fans. Well, let me backpedal - <em>hate</em> is such a strong word. Let's say that sometimes Blue Jay fans drive me crazy.<br />
<br />
Now, before you judge me the way I have judged many (so, so many, if twitter can be believed...), I will pre-emptively and readily admit that this is probably more a character flaw of mine than yours. I should understand that it's just human nature, it's 20 years of baseball frustrations. It's many more than 20 years of Toronto sports fan frustrations (hey - I'm not rubbing that in - I'm from Winnipeg, man!). It's the buildup of a winter of excitement and promise. It's the end result of a mad promotional push by the mother corporation for this team when really, we didn't even need it. We were already on pins and needles waiting for the first pitch. Expectations can be a bitch.<br />
<br />
Except... it was also only 7 games. <em>Seven games!</em> Of a one hundred and sixty two game schedule! That's 4% of the year. Four percent. Who can determine anything definitively about a team after completing four percent of the schedule? I can't.<br />
<br />
And... again, while I can understand the frustration, and the convenient outlet twitter provides to vent that frustration, what I cannot understand is the #firegibbons crowd... mixed in with calls for the return of The Manager. Hoooo boy. I knew it was coming - it was always going to come - but I figured May at the earliest. Not the first week of April.<br />
<br />
This Toronto Blue Jays club is a very talented team. There are holes, yes of course there are. Thin bench. Infield defense (especially sans Brett Lawrie, which throws the whole infield alignment out of whack). But the talent on the roster is undeniable. A slow start doesn't make it not so, it makes it... a slow start. <br />
<br />
Cy Young winners one year do not become worthless pitchers the next. National Leaguers do not forget how to play the game when switching leagues. Home run champs and .900 OPSers typically aren't instant dogmeat the next season, and if they are, we won't know this 7 games in.<br />
<br />
That's not to say this all works out. This could be a .500 team just as it might be a .600 team. Division champs, wildcard team, or middle of the pack... we just don't know yet. <br />
<br />
But let's wait a while to see how this all plays out before giving up on the team. Let's have fun doing it instead of screaming for wholesale change after dropping a few series. I'm certainly not trying to tell you how to be a fan. I'm not your blog daddy (around these parts, that's Tao). I am, most certainly & definitely, not trying to tell you to cheer for this team in the exact manner that<em> I</em> cheer for this team. We all have our favorites, our baseball ideologies, a certain way of enjoying the game. Sports would be boring otherwise.<br />
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I guess I'm just asking you to be reasonable. <em> Be reasonable!</em><br />
<br />
Alex Anthopoulos put on his big boy pants in constructing the roster this winter. Because of this, we have become fans of a potential contender. Can't we do the same?<br />
The Ackhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12374953233006854310noreply@blogger.com3