The Tao of Stieb

Tao's Tweet Bag - Pertinent Questions, Flippant Answers

2013-05-17T13:28:00.001-04:00

Well, hello chums, and welcome to the inaugural Tweet Bag of the 2013 season. Has it really taken this long into the schedule to churn out one of these posts?

Well, yes...but consider the toxicity of the conversation over the past few weeks, and you'll understand why this semi-regular post was delayed until the team managed to string together a couple of wins. I assume you'll understand. Friendsies?

Okay, on with your questions:

@taoofstieb does the Josh Johnson injury situation make it more or less likely that he remains a Blue Jay? #TaoBag
— Ken Peterson (@Kenjamin12) May 17, 2013

This question has been asked many times in recent weeks, and I tend to slough it off out of hand. I understand that there is the temptation to look at Josh Johnson like a dented can of soup on which we might be able to get a snazzy discount, but is it really worth it? Who likes dented soup?

But since you asked nicely, allow me to expand.

Firstly, it should be said that we don't really know what to make of Josh Johnson's injury because he's fully mired in it at this time. The moment of truth will come when he returns - whenever that happens - when we get to see how he looks when he's back to something resembling passable health.

If Josh Johnson returns and he's good, then you should probably kiss him goodbye. The Jays have a lot of money for the ensuing years already owed, and Johnson will be looking for more years than a reasonable team should give him. Which won't stop some damn fool team from handing him a contract for too much money and too many years.

There is a scenario where Josh Johnson misses a long stretch this season - maybe well past the point where he'd be tradeable - where the Jays could make him a qualifying offer for one year. And if that were to come to pass and he accepted, then we can recycle this answer a year from now.

Onward!

Who is worse? JPA or Colby? #TaoBag
— Morgan Burton (@MorganBurton) May 17, 2013

You know, you could have asked "Who's better?" That might have been nice.

But since you asked: I tend to be focused on strikeout and walk rates when evaluating players lately, and neither JPA nor Colby are especially flattered by those numbers. JPA has struck out in a third (literally, 33.3%) of his at bats, while Colby has whiffed in an astonishing 40.7% of his at bats.

Colby has managed to convert some deep counts into bases on balls, walking in 8.6% of his trips to the plate. At the same time, Arencibia has walked twice. Two times. One time in the second game of the season, and then one other time against Baltimore. But in his last 20 games, he has not let a pitcher offer him a free pass.

Maybe he's just in a hurry to get back to the dugout to put his catching gear back on.

Yes, JPA has the second best isolated power on the Jays at the moment (.257), but Colby isn't far behind (.190), and offers vastly superior defense at a premium position. So I'll say Colby. Dang.

May I have another?

@taoofstieb What is your opinion on Munenori Kawasaki and how long he will remain with the team #taobag
— Matt G (@MattG_12) May 17, 2013

I understand that Kawasaki is an endearing player, and that his various antics and rituals have led to a streak of genuine affection from a certain portion of the fanbase. People dig plucky dudes.

Moreover, there are aspects of Kawasaki's game which were lacking in the Jays' lineup early on. This includes the ability to draw a walk, of which he has 11, or nine more than JPA in less than half the plate appearances. He also has the ability to get his bat on the ball, as evidenced by a stupendous 93.2% contact rate (4th in MLB among players with 80 or more PAs).

The biggest problem, though, is that Kawasaki doesn't hit the ball hard. At all. His .279 slugging percentage lags far behind his .337 OBP, and while he's managed to swipe five bags and only get caught once, there are limits to how productive you can be slapping the ball weakly around the field.

I'm also not a huge proponent of his defensive skills, though he plays short well enough to get by.

My suspicion is that once José Reyes returns, we won't miss Kawasaki's outsized personality that much.

A few quick ones to close us out...

If the Yanks don't resign Cano, could you see the Jays getting involved? #TaoBag
— Jeffrey Dyck (@jeffreyldyck) May 17, 2013

I really like Robinson Cano, but know this: There is no amount of money that the Jays could offer Robinson Cano that the Yankees would not match. The only team that I could envision stealing Cano away is the Dodgers, but even they have their limits.

How long can Ramon Ortiz keep this up? Predictions/guesses for the season? #TaoBag
— Darren Priest (@dpriest) May 17, 2013

Maybe one more start. Or two. But probably not. He's walked between the raindrops in his first two starts. Though throwing strikes is always appreciated.

What has to happen to get the Argos out of Rogers centre? #TaoBag
— Andrew Glynn (@Andrew_Glynn) May 17, 2013

I think Rogers would have to lean on the Argos to find another place to play. It's an open question as to whether if that's something they really want, or if the 10-12 dates per year are worth enough to Rogers to tolerate the inconvenience. My guess is that the successful Grey Cup might have softened their resolve to get the Argos out, if that was even on their agenda.

And that's about what we can squeeze in for today. Thanks for the questions, and apologies to those whose questions were too smart for me to answer with some diminished capacity today. Cheers, and enjoy your long weekend.

Glimmering Slivers of Light

2013-05-13T14:40:00.000-04:00

Few wold have imagined at the outset of the season that the Blue Jays would find themselves sitting nine games under .500. Fewer still would have imagined that they would be able to find the bright side in that sad state of affairs.

And yet, the 4-3 road trip capped by a decisive and dingerlicious win over the loathsome Red Sox helps to let in the slightest glimmers of light into what has been an awfully dark season to date.

That's not to suggest that a series win and a series split against two AL East rivals constitute some sort of spectacular rolling tide of awesomeness that the Jays can ride well into October. But after spending much of six weeks mired in omnishambles, it was a relief to see something approaching the quality of team that fans anticipated in the offseason as they gazed longingly into magazine covers and replays of former glories and specially-commissioned Blue Jays documentary programming.

Even though the team has thus far fallen short of expectations, there are enough specks of light to create a very modest measure of optimism.

If you wanted to focus on the bright side, you could look at some of the impressive counting stats that the team has amassed, even through the bad times. As of the close of business on Sunday, the Jays led the Majors in homers (51) and were tied for the lead in stolen bases (29).

The Blue Jays still strike out too much - 309 times thus far, tied for 5th worst in MLB - and don't walk as much as they could - 115 so far, tied for 16th. But both of those numbers have improved in recent weeks, giving the sense that just maybe this team isn't as bad as they've seemed.

That point might seem obvious to some, but consider the drastic measures that were being suggested by some in the initial weeks of the season when just about everything went wrong. If the foundation of the argument for firing the manager/trading José Bautista/firing the GM/moving the team to Albuquerque was that they were as bad as they seemed, then hopefully some marginal improvements and creeping back towards the mean will help to quiet those sort of entreaties.

Over the past 14 days, the Blue Jays have posted a .321 OBP, as opposed to the .294 mark they put up in April. They've also shown a better walk rate (8.8% vs. 7.5%) and strike out rate (19.4% vs. 21.8%.) Those differences aren't staggering, but over the course of a season, a percentage point or two in the right direction on those stats can lead to extra runs and - hopefully - extra wins.

The pitching is a whole other kettle of messy and unpalatable stew at this point, and the passable performances of Ramon Ortiz and Chad Jenkins don't seem like a long term strategy to help make up the lost ground and chip away at the team's deficits. But with some marginal improvements on offense and something resembling a return to good health for the rotation, maybe the Jays can chug-a-chug their way like the little engine towards a season that isn't a bitter disappointment.

How's that for optimism?

Stop Digging

2013-05-05T20:24:00.000-04:00

The last time I showed my face around these parts, it was to be as cautiously reassuring as possible about the lengthy injury the Toronto Blue Jays starting shortstop had just incurred. That was a simpler time, wasn't it? It really was early then -- a mere ten games into the season, when we all innocently believed a slow start would right itself quickly, and that despite the departure of an offensive catalyst at the top of the lineup, the remaining talent on the roster would shine through.

It's been a bit of a blur for me since, I'll confess. Even if I hadn't watched the previous evening's loss, the day in, day out jabs from co-workers about whether I was worried yet served as reminders that the team was still struggling to string anything positive together. I'm a guy who spends way more time than is healthy paying attention to the things that happen with this team, and it's even been hard for me to grit my teeth and shake off another series dropped. My alternative has been to simply zone out a little bit. I'll go play for my own softball team or get some yard work done and not feel too terribly if I've happened to choose to do so on a day when they decide to take a 10-run shit-canning.

But they do have a way of pulling you back in, do they not, these Jays? This frustrating, fascinating team provided yet another glimpse on Sunday of just what they can bring to the table. Brandon Morrow went eight innings and had one rough one among them, from which he escaped admirably. They hit line drives and deep flies, they ran the bases relentlessly, and they came away with ten runs.

So, you know, "Today was a good day," he said to nobody in particular, ironically in the same manner of the spouse of a terminal patient providing comfort to visiting relatives.

But recoveries, even the unlikeliest ones, all begin with a good day. What you're hoping for is for the good days to start outnumbering the bad days, and for the bad days to get a little more bearable each time. One good day isn't enough, but it's better than the alternative and better still if the next day follows suit.

Jesus, that sounds pretty melodramatic just reading it back to myself, but here we are. The 2013 Toronto Blue Jays aren't a terminal patient just yet, but the vehicle that hit them wasn't just a freakin' Smart Car making a slow right turn through the crosswalk either. They've been thumped handily on at least four separate occasions, and when they've been close, as Jose Bautista said, every little mistake they've made seems to have cost them a game. They consistently leave themselves very little margin for error, which can make life in the big leagues pretty difficult.

While I'm on a roll with the overwrought metaphors: you can subscribe to the theory that they've dug themselves a bit of a hole from which they can climb out. Maybe you're more extreme -- maybe it's a canyon in your view, from which they may only hope to scale their way to some middling plateau. Maybe you think they've crashed to earth with such velocity that the resulting wreckage is not only incapable of emerging from the smouldering crater it created, but that any salvageable bits should be sold for scrap.

Me? I just want them to stop digging.

Winning Don't Come Easy

2013-04-29T13:42:00.001-04:00

So, how's your dream season treating you? Are we having fun yet?

Over the first four weeks of the season, I've found myself stifling the impulse - sometimes successfully - to lecture fans like a scolding auntie. "Don't throw paper airplanes!" "Stop booing your own players!" "Cheer in anticipation, not just in reaction!" "It's early!"

Nag, nag, nag.

Mostly, though, I've tried to resist the urge to harangue fans for the manner in which they express themselves, because really, who am I to say how you should cheer on your team? Or maybe more to the point, who am I to tell you how you should express your outrage at how the season has unfolded thus far?

At the same time, it seems as if the Jays' floundering start to the schedule has made a vocal portion of the fanbase go positively loony. Observing what happens when outlandish preseason expectations collide violently with a poor start is the stuff of which Funniest Home Videos are made.

Still, if you count yourself among the patient or rational at this point, it's getting harder to maintain a position that we'll soon return to something resembling normalcy. In fact, if my Twitter interactions are any way to gauge the conversation - they're probably not, but play along - then anyone who shows something less than outright rage towards the team gets assailed as a simpleton and an apologist.

And look: I get it. This has been one of the most disheartening starts to a season in recent memory, which is only magnified by that initial excitement. There's 20 years of pent up enthusiasm waiting to be unleashed, but over the first month, we've been treated to some underwhelming pitching, awful fielding and offense that is seemingly incapable of sustaining a rally more than once per week.

Yes, it's been some nasty-looking baseball in the early-going. But one of the things that some fans forget about baseball over the long winter is that the game is replete with negative outcomes. It's really the nature of the sport that success is often a function of just not failing.

This certainly runs counter to the way in which we discuss sports, especially in Canada. Our winter pastime is so overrun with conventional wisdom that many of us fall into the trap of addressing sports in absolute terms. "You gotta," as they say.

"You gotta catch that." "You gotta hit with runners in scoring position." "You gotta take your bat off your shoulders." "You gotta beat those teams."

But the fact is that baseball - perhaps more than any other sport - resists those absolutist tropes. Good players make bad plays. Bad players have good at bats. Bad teams beat good teams. Bad pitchers strike out good hitters. Good teams have bad weeks, and bad months, and even bad seasons.

Take, for instance, the 1986 Blue Jays. Coming off their first playoff appearance and a 99-win season, the almost identical team won 13 fewer games. They scored marginally more runs, but almost every starting pitcher had a down year the following year. Same set of people, with presumably the same skills as the year before, but lesser results. It happens.

What we've seen thus shouldn't be taken to represent what the rest of the season will look like. Though this team has far underperformed over the first weeks, there is so much more baseball to play yet, as tiresome as it is to hear that said repeatedly. I get tired of saying it.

And we shouldn't forget that winning is a painful process in baseball. Few teams ever truly run away with a division, or clinch a playoff berth with ease. Even for the best teams, it's always a long and agonizing season, filled with bad series and bad breaks and injuries and ump shows and dunderheaded managerial decisions.

To be a baseball fan, you have to embrace the agony.

37 Jays - J.P. Arencibia is a Handsome Enigma

2013-04-15T23:21:00.001-04:00

Who: Jonathan Paul Arencibia. Call him J.P.. Catcher. Tweeter. Bon vivant. Heartthrob. Six feet tall, 200 lbs. Bats and throws right-handed. Twenty-seven years old. Sports jersey number 9.

Provenance: Miami, Florida, where he attended Westminster Christian, the same high school as Doug Mientkiewicz...oh, and Alex Rodriguez too. Drafted by the Blue Jays with the 21st pick of the 2007 amateur draft. Made his big league debut on August 7, 2010.

Contract Status: Signed a one-year, $505,600 deal in January. Is arbitration eligible for the first time after this season.

Back of the Baseball Card: In 242 games through from 2010 through last year, posted a .275 OBP and .433 slugging. Hit 43 taters.

Recent Numbers: In 2012, Arencibia struck out in 29% of his plate appearances while walking in 4.8%. In 49 plate appearances this year, Arencibia has struck out 19 times and walked once. With four handsome dingers.

Injury History: Hit the DL for the first time as a big leaguer in July of 2012 after a foul ball fractured his throwing hand. Missed 43 days, ushering in the brief Jeff Mathis Era that will go down in Blue Jays catching lore.

Looking Back: One of the most popular Blue Jays in recent memory, J.P. Arencibia is one of the more maddening Blue Jays to appraise.

Arencibia reutation is as a hit-first catcher, but his bat is sketchy at best. There were 13 MLB catchers with more than 850 plate appearances in 2011 and 2012, and among that group, J.P. Arencibia ranks 13th in strikeout rate, 11th in walk rate, and 13th in on-base percentage.

At the same time, it's problematic to get a decent metric to provide a adequate assessment of a catcher's defensive value - not to mention their game-calling - so pinning down how much JPA's squatting makes up for his whiffing is nearly impossible. There's some consensus that Arencibia is a below average receiver, though that estimation is based on the "eye test". You could probably find a slew of people to tell you that their eyes see a devilishly handsome Gold Glover behind the plate. Go figure.

What is beyond debate is that J.P. Arencibia hit home runs.Over those two seasons, he hit 41 homers, good enough for fourth on the aforementioned list of catchers, and with significantly fewer plate appearances than the three players - Matt Wieters (45), Carlos Santana (45) and Brian McCann (44) - ahead of him.

First Impressions and Looking Ahead: True to form, Arencibia has begun the 2013 season by hitting homers while striking out a lot and not walking much. Sure, it's a small sample size, but it sufficiently resembles what we've seen from him previously to ask the question again: Is Arencibia good enough behind the plate to allow the Jays to play his bat 80% of the time?

Is the plus power coupled with the maybe-okay defensive skills enough to make him a viable full player now? And what about in the future? J.P. reaches his arbitration eligibility after this year, and while few players ever end up getting to the salary arbitrator's table, those long balls would go even further when it comes cashing in through that process. If he's not the long term solution, would the Jays be willing to look for an upgrade this season?

There are few who talk as good a game as J.P.. He is a supremely confident player, and his bravado is even hard to resist for those of us hardened by the cold winds of logic or reason. Still, his results this year need to improve if the Jays are to make a serious run at the postseason.

Optimistically: In his 27 year-old season, begins to raise his offensive game to a new level, walking more and whiffing less. Meanwhile, plays a crucial role in managing the pitching staff and improves his pitch framing.

Pessimistically: Is a one-tool catcher who makes a lot of outs in the middle of the lineup.

37 Jays - Emilio Bonifacio Is What He Is...Which Is What, Exactly?

2013-04-15T00:00:00.000-04:00

Who: Number 1 in your program - and shurely(!) in your hearts - Emilio Bonifacio. Utility infielder. Well, sorta. Also, kind of a utility outfielder, if necessary. Switch-hitter. Five-foot-eleven, 205 lbs. Age 27.

Provenance: Santo Domingo, Dominicana. Signed in 2001 as an amateur free agent by the Arizona Diamondbacks. Made his Major League debut in September 2007 with the D-Backs. Acquired by the Blue Jays from the Marlins as part of "that deal".

Contract Status: Signed a one-year, $2.6 milion deal to avoid arbitration in January. Is arb eligible after this season as well. Will become a free agent after 2014.

Back of the Baseball Card: Stole 110 bases over six seasons, including 70 over his last 915 plate appearances in 2011-12. Need more? Fine then. Has put up a vaguely respectable .329 OBP alongside a rather flimsy .343 slugging in 1878 plate appearances. Seven dingers.

2012 Numbers: In 64 games with the Marlins, put up a .330 OBP and .316 slugging. Stole 30 bags.

Injury History: Ended his 2012 season with a sprained right knee in August. Also had surgery on his thumb last season, which sidelined him for two separate DL stints.

Looking Back and First Impressions: When the Blue Jays made their monumental deal with the Marlins, Emilio Bonifacio was a lesser but still intriguing piece of the return. It might be trite to call Bonifacio a "jack of all trades", but with his ability to hit from both sides of the plate and play almost anywhere on the diamond, his mere inclusion in the deal added to the Jays' roster flexibility.

Coming off an injury-plagued season, it was easy to gloss over the most recent offensive output, which was less than inspiring, especially if you let your eye find the gaudy numbers under the steals column. Moreover, a career season in 2011 in which he finagled his way into a full-time role through injuries to Hanley Ramirez and Twitter-inspired demotions for Logan Morrison.

Bonifacio made the most of that opportunity, posting a .753 OPS (.360 OBP / .393 SLG), including a handsome .376 OBP as a leadoff hitter. That last note might put rest to a question for the skipper that popped up over the last two days, as the injury to Jose Reyes saw him shifted back into that leadoff role, at least temporarily.

With more opportunities to see Bonifacio over the past week, the initial impressions are much less endearing. Beyond the obvious butchery in the infield on defense, his swing seems more apt for a lumberjack competition than the top of the order for a putative contender.

Looking Ahead: With the injury to Reyes, there are holes to be plugged in the starting nine for the next three months (or more). While John Gibbons has already shown a willingness to mix up the lineup depending on the day's circumstances, Bonifacio might still angle his way into significant playing time, if not 500 plate appearances.

On one hand, that's surely good for him. Players want to play. But as author Ryan Oakley (@thegrumpyowl) noted via tweet over the weekend, Bonifacio might benefit from a relegation to the bench, where his value as a late inning replacement and pinch-runner would not be undercut by the weaknesses that are exposed in the everyday role.

"Right now, he's a monkey wrench as a hammer," Oakley argued.

Optimistically: With great opportunity comes great productivity. Bonifacio posts an OBP over .350 with enough extra bases tossed in to help the Jays stay afloat until Reyes' return.

Pessimistically: The Jays are left to rely on him, but can't find places to hide his glove in the field or his flimsy bat in the lineup.

Next Man Up

2013-04-13T21:43:00.000-04:00

Image via www.kansascity.com

Believe it or not, I follow other sports besides baseball. I love hockey, golf, rugby, and I can even get myself interested in soccer during World Cup or Euro time. And like millions of other red-blooded North American males, I love football too.

There's a fascinating book called Next Man Up, written by John Feinstein, in which the author was given nearly unprecedented behind-the-scenes access to a full season of an NFL team -- the 2004 Baltimore Ravens. The title is a reference to the philosophy that permeates football teams when it comes to injuries. Here's how Feinstein prefaces the book and the reason for the title:

"Football is an unrelentingly punishing sport, and every NFL team prepares constantly for the likelihood -- the certainty -- that even franchise players can go down at any time. Someone new must always be ready, trained, and primed to step in at a moment's notice.

"In the NFL there is only one sure thing: every day, someone will have to be the Next Man Up."

In a football application, it's a cruel yet efficient philosophy. Football is a game in which a hundred moving parts interact with one another on any given play from scrimmage, and even a dozen small individual failures within a play can still produce a successful team result, if the other team has more of those individual failures on that particular snap of the ball. So outside of some key positions, a starter can be injured, and his small part in the offensive or defensive scheme can be assumed by an inferior player. You can lose a starting left offensive guard, and his backup might not be as capable, but you can adjust blocking schemes to ensure the center and the left tackle help him out in pass protection. You can lose a first string wide receiver, and adjust by running the ball a bit more, or throwing more passes to other receivers. There will be an impact on team performance, but the system is designed to absorb that impact.

The difference in baseball, of course, is that every play on the field really only involves a few people at a time. The outcome of each -- or more pertinently, the aggregate outcome of all of them over the season -- can be more significantly affected by the skill levels of those involved. That is to say, 550 plate appearances from Jose Reyes are far more likely to contribute more to the success over the course of the year than the same number given to, say, Pete Kozma. An entire area of study has in fact been dedicated to understanding and quantifying these contributions.

Replacing regular, outstanding contributors in baseball is tough, because not only are you replacing them with inferior players -- usually of the dreaded "replacement level" variety -- but the players remaining can't just cover off the gap created. Those teammates are what they are and they contribute what they contribute. You can't game plan your way around a significant injury by putting a greater emphasis on other talent. You still only get to bat once out of every nine spots, and balls are still going to get hit to the area that's been vacated by the injured starter.

So what do you do if you're a baseball general manager to prepare for the eventuality of injuries to your starters? You can't stockpile first-tier players three deep at every position throughout your organization. Your replacement players are, more often than not, going to be replacement level.

But what you can do is endeavour to make sure the rest of the roster is as thoroughly well-constructed as possible. You can build in versatility in the infield with veterans, perhaps not all-stars but solid major leaguers, who have played all positions in case one goes down. You can make savvy free agent signings and secure contract extensions for run producers in the heart of your lineup, ensuring that in the largest number of spots in the order as possible, players will be getting on base, hitting for power and scoring runs. You can remain vigilant on the waiver wire, and execute cheap acquisitions of players that can potentially fill a key role either temporarily or longer term. You can accumulate the kind of prospect depth that allows you to trade for proven, high-level pitching talent, making your starting rotation superior to most competitors and putting your team in a better position to win games day after day. You can bring in a manager who understands how to maximize the impact of the talent you've assembled, with smart use of platoons and the bullpen.

You're not going to prevent the worst from happening, but you can prepare for it and insulate your team from its worst potential effects. You control what you can control, and plan for what's quantifiable.

And then, at a certain point, you leave it in the hands of the team you've assembled. You count on what isn't quantifiable -- the mental strength to play three months without a key offensive catalyst and thrive under the challenge; the drive of your players to be better than they have been because now they need to be; the ingenuity of your manager to put the best shine possible on the gold he has, and spin a little bit more gold from the straw he has alongside it.

Three months without Jose Reyes is a brutal blow. I'm not trying to sugarcoat it. But all the things Alex Anthopoulos did right to prepare the 2013 Toronto Blue Jays for success are still, mostly, there. This injury is exactly why, if you're going to make a serious push, you don't go halfway.

Patience is the hardest of virtues

2013-04-11T00:51:00.000-04:00

(That's Axl Rose. Because he was rad back then. If only I had the photoshop skills to turn that into a Blue Jays cap... )

Confession time:

Sometimes I hate Blue Jay fans. Well, let me backpedal - hate is such a strong word. Let's say that sometimes Blue Jay fans drive me crazy.

Now, before you judge me the way I have judged many (so, so many, if twitter can be believed...), I will pre-emptively and readily admit that this is probably more a character flaw of mine than yours. I should understand that it's just human nature, it's 20 years of baseball frustrations. It's many more than 20 years of Toronto sports fan frustrations (hey - I'm not rubbing that in - I'm from Winnipeg, man!). It's the buildup of a winter of excitement and promise. It's the end result of a mad promotional push by the mother corporation for this team when really, we didn't even need it. We were already on pins and needles waiting for the first pitch. Expectations can be a bitch.

Except... it was also only 7 games. Seven games! Of a one hundred and sixty two game schedule! That's 4% of the year. Four percent. Who can determine anything definitively about a team after completing four percent of the schedule? I can't.

And... again, while I can understand the frustration, and the convenient outlet twitter provides to vent that frustration, what I cannot understand is the #firegibbons crowd... mixed in with calls for the return of The Manager. Hoooo boy. I knew it was coming - it was always going to come - but I figured May at the earliest. Not the first week of April.

This Toronto Blue Jays club is a very talented team. There are holes, yes of course there are. Thin bench. Infield defense (especially sans Brett Lawrie, which throws the whole infield alignment out of whack). But the talent on the roster is undeniable. A slow start doesn't make it not so, it makes it... a slow start.

Cy Young winners one year do not become worthless pitchers the next. National Leaguers do not forget how to play the game when switching leagues. Home run champs and .900 OPSers typically aren't instant dogmeat the next season, and if they are, we won't know this 7 games in.

That's not to say this all works out. This could be a .500 team just as it might be a .600 team. Division champs, wildcard team, or middle of the pack... we just don't know yet.

But let's wait a while to see how this all plays out before giving up on the team. Let's have fun doing it instead of screaming for wholesale change after dropping a few series. I'm certainly not trying to tell you how to be a fan. I'm not your blog daddy (around these parts, that's Tao). I am, most certainly & definitely, not trying to tell you to cheer for this team in the exact manner that I cheer for this team. We all have our favorites, our baseball ideologies, a certain way of enjoying the game. Sports would be boring otherwise.

I guess I'm just asking you to be reasonable. Be reasonable!

Alex Anthopoulos put on his big boy pants in constructing the roster this winter. Because of this, we have become fans of a potential contender. Can't we do the same?

37 Jays - Dickey, The Best.

2013-04-02T09:18:00.000-04:00

Who: Robert Allen Dickey. Right-handed starting pitcher. Knuckleballer. Cy Young Award Winner in 2012. Six-foot-two, 215 lbs. Age 38.

Provenance: Nashville, Tennessee. Attended the University of Tennessee. Drafted by the Texas Rangers with the 18th pick overall in the 1996 amateur draft. Made his MLB debut on April 26, 2001.

Acquired: Traded to the Blue Jays by the New York Mets in exchange for Travis d'Arnaud, Noah Syndergaard, John Buck and Wuilmer Becerra.

Contract Status: Signed a two-year, $25 million contract extension with the Blue Jays for the 2014 and 2015 seasons after his acquisition from the Mets. Contract has a $12 million team option for 2016 with a $1 million buyout. Slated to make $5 million this year to conclude his previous contract.

Back of the Baseball Card: While Dickey has pitched for ten seasons and 1059.1 innings, the only stats that seem pertinent are the last three seasons that he's pitched since gaining some semblance of mastery over the knuckleball: In 94 games (91 starts, 616.2 innings), Dickey compiled a 2.95 ERA with 6.8 strikeouts per nine innings and 2.2 walks per nine. Tossed eight complete games and four shutoutss

2012 Repertoire, as per Brooks Baseball: Knuckleball (85%, 77.7 MPH); Sinker (10%, 83.8 MPH); Four-seam fastball (4%, 84.6 MPH), Changeup (1%, 76.5 MPH).

Recent Injury History: Had offseason surgery to address a torn abdominal muscle. Minor injuries in 2011 to hip, plantar fascia, and fingernail.

Looking Back: At this point, you've probably read the complete biography of R.A. Dickey from every perspective, maybe even including his own best-selling autobiography. There's the troubled childhood, the lack of a ulnar collateral ligament, the Rangers stiffing him on his bonus, the long road to a mediocre career, the last ditch attempt at salvation through the knuckleball, and then success. Also, the humanitarian work, and the renaissance.

If nothing else, R.A. Dickey presents himself as a complex character, containing multitudes, and you can't blame writers for wanting to roll out endless prose on all of the facets of his life and work.

That's not to insinuate that Dickey is merely the creation of a hungry hype machine, because what he accomplished in 2012 was a stunning piece of business. He struck out 24.8% of batters he faced over that campaign, almost 10% more than he whiffed in the previous season, while dropping his walk rate to 5.8%.

In addition to the remarkable levels of success that he had, Dickey was also a workhorse, tossing 233.2 innings over the season, including a league-leading five complete games. He also led the NL in starts (33), batters faced (927), strikeouts (230) and shutouts (3).

Looking Ahead: There really isn't any precedent for a player like Dickey. And while it's true that you could probably say that about every little snowflake that ever landed on a big league field, it's exceedingly difficult to even speculate as to what the future holds for a knuckleballer who throws the pitch as hard and with as many variations as the Jays' putative ace.

In spite of the unique absence of the ligament that trips up most pitchers, there remains a different health concern with Dickey. Thirty-eight years of age is still relatively young for most men, but for an athlete whose game is predicated on maintaining an elusive feel for a specific pitch, the torsion that it takes through the midsection to float a baseball in at 80 MPH without spin is unprecedented.

The other point of concern this season is Dickey's flyball rate, which has continued to rise as he became more effective with the Mets. Dickey's ground ball rate fell to 46.1% last season, while his percentage of line drives and fly balls went up. Moreover, his home run per fly ball rate jumped to 11.3%, and that is with the benefit of playing home games in Citi Field. How many of those balls batted into the air will find leather this season when the welcoming hands of bleacher creatures in Yankee Stadium and Fenway Park are so accommodatingly close by?

Watching R.A. Dickey pitch will be an adjustment for those Jays fans who know him primarily from the piles of bouquets that have been launched at his feet this offseason in the local press. His numbers say he is dominating, but he never quite looks the part, especially when his soft tosses catch a bit too much of the plate and get hammered.

But when the knuckleball is active and darting and dodging its way around bats, there are few pitchers who are more fun to watch.

Pessimistically: Struggles to get the right touch on the trick pitch. The transition into the AL East is tougher than expected, with designated hitters and tiny ballparks making his life difficult.

Optimistically: Gives the Jays over 220 innings of work, preserving the bullpen and befuddling hitters. Begins writing a next chapter that every Jays fan will want to read.

Hope, v2013.0

2013-04-02T01:19:00.000-04:00

"Toronto Blue Jay fans have got to be excited about the fact their team has a chance to play meaningful baseball in September for the first time in a long, long while...." - every season preview written this winter.

Truth be told, I've come to resent the term "meaningful baseball", if for no other reason than the notion seems to imply that my devotion to this team over the last 20 years has been, well, meaningless.

I can't accept that. I can't get behind the idea that none of it has mattered; that watching Jose Bautista crush baseballs and Roy Halladay make professional hitters look silly and Brett Lawrie go berserk in the dugout has all been a mere sideshow to the Braves' pennants and Yankee dominance, and, well... you get the picture.

Every spring brings some semblance of hope, something for fans to cling to, something to get behind and claim as victory. Some years it might be the emergence of a developing ace, or a franchise bat, or a farm system rocketing up the rankings. But this season, after this amazing winter, it's different. It's the real deal, it's the not-at-all misguided belief that this club is a definite World Series contender. We should all be excited, maybe moreso than any year post-1993.

And yet... it's tempered, for me anyway, by... hesitation? Nervousness? Fear? Because with this great hope comes almost crushing expectations. In the eyes of many, it's World Series or bust. It's the pennant or nothing. It's playoffs or total failure. Grabbing a wild card spot would almost be a disappointment.

But not for me. Not this guy.

Do I want this club to win - and win big? Of course. Winning is fun. Playoffs are fun (at least I remember them being fun). But along the way, I'm going to enjoy watching Jose (the original Jose - Bautista, of course) mash. I'm looking forward to Edwin's chicken wing around the paths. Jose Reyes is going to make me smile. Heads up - if we cross paths on the street and you're wearing a Jays cap, there's a pretty good chance your pal the Ack will give you the old 'lo viste' across the eyes. Dickey the best, and I'm looking forward to a healthy Brandon Morrow developing into the ace of this staff.

I hope the Yankee magic is no more, and I hope that Josh Johnson shoves it down the once and now deposed President Farrell's throat on opening weekend. (Side note - nobody is buying the "as I recall, I was traded" nonsense, John, so stop trying to sell it. You smug prick.) I hope we don't have to read about Joe Maddon's genius and gimmicky tshirts, and I hope Baltimore's bullpen is no better than league average, making the Orioles.... league average.

And if none of the above happens? Well, that will indeed suck. But those are worries for another time.

Opening day is here. It's good to be back.

37 Jays - Dustin McGowan's Ghost of Chance

2013-03-26T16:10:00.000-04:00

Who: Dustin McGowan. Former lambchop aficionado Right-handed pitcher, role to be determined. Six-foot-three inches, 230 lbs. Thirty-one years old. Yes, that's 31. Which is older than you thought.

Provenance: Savannah, Georgia. Attended Long County High School in Ludowici, GA.

Acquired: Drafted by the Blue Jays in the first round (33rd overall) of the 2000 MLB amateur draft.

Contract Status: Signed a three-year, $4.1 million contract before last season. Slated to make $1.5 million this year and $1.5 million in 2014. A $4 million club option for 2015 is also available, with a $500,000 buyout. Is out of options.

Back of the Baseball Card: Over five seasons, 80 games pitched, all for the Blue Jays, including 60 starts. Last pitched on September 26th, 2011. Posted a 4.80 ERA, with an 18.8% strikeout rate and 9.5% walk rate.

Career Repertoire, as per Brooks Baseball: Four seam fastball (36%, 95.9 MPH); Sinker (26%, 95.8 MPH); Slider (21%, 88.9 MPH), Changeup (11%, 87.8 MPH); Curveball (10%, 82.4 MPH).

Recent Injury History: Five separate yet interrelated 60-day DL stints for shoulder injuries to both the rotator cuff and labrum. Tommy John Surgery in 2004.

Looking Back: You'd think that we would have learned by now not to get overly excited by the sparkles and flashes that are conveyed through second-hand accounts of Dustin McGowan's progress.

It's been too long. There have been too many setbacks. There might not have been enough quality there in the first place. And yet, we're captivated. Tales of one spring training inning - ONE INNING - and people get hooked anew by the promise of Dusty and his "stuff".

Oh, stuff. It's such a mesmerizing thing. An intricate weave of velocity, movement, and aspirations. You'll note that when people speak of McGowan's stuff, they invariably invoke the names of Roy Halladay or Chris Carpenter, in part because the ambition among some fans and some media is that the big right-hander assume that mantle. Even with Brandon Morrow and Josh Johnson already on board, there's an appeal to the recent history of the Jays, and McGowan is the next piece in that narrative.

This isn't to completely dismiss the notion that McGowan could be something. In his erratic return to the Blue Jays in 2011, his fastballs would peak in the high 90's, though where they ended up was anyone's guess. That sort of power can occasionally gloss over a lack of control on occasion, but it's not a path towards long-term success.

Looking Ahead: They say that past performance is the best predictor of future success...but is there anything meaningful from the past four years of McGowan's career that we can look upon to find insight as to what he might be this year?

The most likely scenario for this season is that McGowan pitches in some portion of the season, and might add his name into the growing and impressive list of hard-throwing right-handers. But does that mean five games? Or 10? Or 20?

The other scenario that has the potential to play out is that the Jays attempt to slip McGowan through waivers in order to kick their decision on him down the road. His million-and-a-half salary this year and next might be enough to ward off some teams that don't have the levels of attachment and patience necessary to wait and dream McGowan through another season.

Pessimistically: Never makes it off the complex. Begins looking at a career after baseball.

Optimistically: Is healthy enough to play baseball, and good enough to matter to the big league team.

37 Jays - Mark DeRosa Really Ties the Room Together

2013-03-26T06:00:00.000-04:00

Who: Number 35, Mark DeRosa. Thirty-eight year-old right-handed hitting utility player and good clubhouse guy. Six-foot-one, 215 lbs.

Provenance: Passaic, New Jersey. Not far from Hackensack. Selected by the Atlanta Braves in the seventh round of the 1996 amateur draft out of the University of Pennsylvania. Debuted for the Braves in September of 1998.

Contract Status: Signed one-year, $750,000 contract with the Jays in January, 2013. A $750,000 cub option for 2014 is included, with a $25,000 buyout.

Back of the Baseball Card: In 15 MLB seasons, has played 1153 games with the Braves, Rangers, Cubs, Clevelanders, Cardinals, Giants and Nationals. Posted a .340 OBP, .412 slugging in 3858 plate appearances. Hit 93 dingers, including a career-high 23 in 2009 between Cleveland and St. Louis. His last homer was on April 5, 2010. Career WAR of 12.3 according to Fangraphs, including a 4.3 in 2008 with the Cubs.

2012 Stats: In 48 games with the Nationals, made 101 plate appearances, with an OBP of .300 (okay, not bad) and a slugging percentage of .247 (yeesh). Strikeout rate of 17.8%, walk rate of 13.9%.

Injury History: A long list of ailments over the past five years have served to limit DeRosa's effectiveness. Missed two months early and one month late in 2012 with oblique strains. Missed more than three months of 2011 with wrist problems, which had previously ended his 2010 season in May.

Looking Back: His medical chart screams "retire already!". He hits the ball so tepidly that his isolated power numbers over the past three season - .065, .023, .059 from 2010 through 2012 respectively - profile more along the lines of a skinny teenage infielder.

DeRosa's real skill or added value to the team is alleged to be the way that he ties the room together, not unlike like Lebowski's rug. If that's the case, then you'd have to assume that his intangible value is off the imperceptible chart, if only because the less ethereal value is so scarce as to be impossible to find in the stat lines.

It wasn't always thus, and there was a moment in his career where DeRosa had emerged as a second-tier star. After signing a three-year deal with the Cubs in 2007, DeRosa more than lived up to the bargain, posting an .800 OPS (.355 OBP, .445 SLG) through the deal's conclusion with the Cardinals. He averaged 18 homers, and filled in admirably around the diamond, getting reps everywhere but pitcher, catcher and centrefield.

Injuries have severely limited DeRosa in the past five seasons, and his wrist injury seems to be chronic. If past injury history is the most telling harbinger of future trouble, the chances of getting much more than 100 plate appearances seems remote.

Looking Ahead: The current narrative is that DeRosa is in camp to be the new, older and wiser best pal for Brett Lawrie. Maybe he's there to hide the Red Bull, or to suggest a use for his time and money that doesn't include more ink on the marginal segments of exposed flesh that the young phenom has remaining.

With today's news that Lawrie will start the season on the DL, though, it seems as though DeRosa will have a role to immediately fill in for the first week of the season, and maybe longer.

For all of the data that has piled up through a long career thus far, it is hard to say what to expect from DeRosa in the short term. Is there any pop left in his bat? And that's not to kid ourselves into thinking of him as any sort of power threat...but can he hit a double? Or send something past the infielders with enough gusto that a .235 BABIP doesn't become the norm?

Pessimistically: Gets injured quickly, ushers in the Andy LaRoche era before they even start opening the dome on a regular basis.

Optimistically: 2009 is a long time ago now, but is it out of the question to think that DeRosa could keep his OPS above .700 and play in more than 50 games?

37 Jays - The Unlikely Ascent of Steve Delabar

2013-03-25T12:05:00.000-04:00

Who: Steve Delabar, 29 year-old right-handed relief pitcher. 6'4", 230 pounds. Jersey number 50.

Provenance: Born in Fort Knox, Kentucky. Went to high school in and around Tulsa Oklahoma.
Selected in the 29th round of the 2003 amateur draft by the San Diego Padres. Made his major league debut for the Seattle Mariners on September 11, 2011.

Acquired: Traded to the Blue Jays on July 30, 2012, in exchange for Eric Thames.

Contract Status: Will not be eligible for arbitration until the 2015 season.

Back of the Baseball Card: Pitched 67 games and 73 innings over one season plus one month with the Mariners and the Jays. Posted a 3.82 ERA in 2012 - including a 3.38 mark after the trade to the Blue Jays - striking out 33.6% of batters while walking 9.5%. Was homer-prone in Seattle, oddly enough, giving up 2.2 HRs per nine innings, but dropped that number to 0.9 in his 27 games in Toronto.

2012 Repertoire, as per Brooks Baseball: Four seam fastball (60%, 95.3 MPH average); Splitter (36%, 87.4 MPH); Slider (4%, 86.8 MPH).

Recent Injury History: Fractured right arm while pitching in independent ball in 2009, requiring a steel plate and nine screws to be inserted surgically to stabilize his elbow. Delabar left baseball for a year, but returned when he rediscovered his velocity while testing the radar gun for the high school team he helped coach in Elizabethtown, KY.

Looking Back: In the moment, it seemed as though the deal to acquire Steve Delabar last year might have been one of the least interesting trades the team has made in recent years. If anything, it seemed like the Jays were dumping Eric Thames just to get him out of their system and move on.

When Delabar arrived, he came with the reputation of being a big arm who threw hard but straight, and when he found the strikezone, he often found trouble. But at a time where the pitching corps was ailing and in need of reinforcements, bringing in any warm body with a vaguely functional arm seemed like a not-bad idea. The likelihood of Delabar sticking around in the long term, though, seemed a bit remote.

But something funny happened over the last two months of the season: Delabar began working ahead in the count, upping his percentage of first-pitch strikes. Batters also started swinging at a marginally higher pace, and missing with those swings more often. All of which resulted in Delabar becoming one of the Jays' more reliable bullpen arms in the late stages of the season. In some crazy corners of the interwebs, it even got some people considering the idea that maybe - just maybe - he might be an option to set up or even close games at some point in the near future.

Having a visually stunning breaking pitch certainly helps to make that case. In September - and standard caveats about the value of stats in meaningless September games apply - Delabar began working his split-fingered fastball into the equation more frequently, throwing it almost as often (114 times) as his fastball (116 times). It seems unlikely that Delabar could keep up a near 50/50 split (pardon the pun) between his four-seam and splitter over the full length of the schedule.

Looking Ahead: While the Blue Jays' bullpen is packed, and features many power arms, there are enough questions about the back end to warrant some lofty considerations for Delabar in 2013.

What's the deal with Casey Janssen's injury? Or what will Sergio Santos look like in his return? If neither of them are effective or available in the early part of the season, Delabar's role could become more vital to the Jays' chances of an AL East pennant.

Does that mean that Delabar could be the closer at some point? It's certainly possible, though most fans would probably wish against the series of events that would bring that reality to bear. On a more positive line of thought, Delabar could serve the team very well as a late inning option to get big strikeouts when necessary.

Pessimistically: Is another hard throwing depth arm in the bullpen. Might walk too many, or get hit hard at times. He still has options.

Optimistically: The end-of-season trend continues, and Delabar strikes out a lot of batters in late and close situations.

Fact or Faked: Position Battles

2013-03-24T22:47:00.004-04:00

I'm a fan of spring training. I really am. It may not seem like it based on how infrequently I've turned up for my weekend blogging duties since the annual pre-season ritual has gotten underway (sorry 'bout that), but I've been enjoying the fact that there's even the most meaningless of baseball games being played in Florida and Arizona. You can't get to the real games until you play the fake ones.

Before spring training got underway, I wrote hereabouts that there really was surprisingly little left to settle with respect to the roster that would head north for the Toronto Blue Jays. There was the backup catcher situation to sort out, and the question of choosing between Emilio Bonifacio and Maicer Izturis as the predominant second base option. These position battles, such as they are, have actually unfolded pretty quietly: looks like Henry Blanco will get the nod to try and track R.A. Dickey's knuckleball every fifth day, while John Gibbons may have chosen not to answer the second base question definitively one way or the other. Which is well within his rights, and might be the wisest course of action anyway.

There's a pertinent question to ask, though, about to what extent these position battles were ever a real thing at all. It's entirely possible the team knew exactly what the answers to these questions would be long before the beat writers and broadcasters gathered in Dunedin started to pose them in the media.

I was listening to the second edition of "Behind the Dish", Keith Law's excellent new podcast from ESPN.com, in which he interviewed former Washington Nationals and Cleveland Indians manager Manny Acta. Acta had some very interesting things to say about the number of roster decisions most organizations have basically predetermined prior to spring, if not carved in stone, then at least written out in permanent Magic Marker.

The truth is there are very few real competitions in spring training, to hear Acta tell it. He wasn't revealing some earth-shattering behind-the-scenes truth, but his discussion of organizational expectations of players coming into camp went beyond the standard "spring stats don't mean shit" that we all understand intuitively already.

Acta also talked a bit about the difference between coaches making mechanical changes with a player who is more certain to be on the Opening Day roster, as opposed to one who is legitimately fighting for a spot on the team. In short, if teams want a clear picture of what a player can do against various qualities of competition in camp -- from major league talent to A-ball fodder -- they tend to leave his mechanics alone. This gives the organizations a sense of where he truly is in his development, and it's fairer to the player, since he's not struggling with consistency due to tweaks to his batting stance or pitching stride.

Bearing all of this in mind, even if most players in major league camp can't really do anything to play themselves into the opening day roster, can they do enough to play their way off of it? Or, to make it more applicable to the media narrative du jour, what's it all mean for Ricky Romero vs. J.A. Happ for that fifth rotation spot?

Romero has struggled badly in spring, after a horrible 2012 season. Yet if you follow the Acta logic -- which actually makes some sense to me -- if Romero were really in a battle for his big-league spot, most organizations wouldn't start monkeying around with his delivery. In fact, the logic would say the exact opposite: it's because Romero's spot is relatively safe that the organization isn't worried about the results he's putting up while he works through his mechanical adjustments against minor leaguers on the back fields.

Now, granted, the mechanical intervention with Romero is coming awfully late in camp. And while the question of whether there's a fifth starter battle might not have generated an actual fire yet, there's a helluva lot of smoke. In any case, I found Acta's insights interesting if you're really looking for another way to analyze this from a distance (or over-analyze, if you like).

Even as an anonymous blogger literally writing this in his basement, I don't have the guts to make a solid prediction one way or the other, but gun to my head, I still think Ricky Romero is going to get some rope at the back end of the rotation. While it may look to the outside world like he's put his rotation spot in jeopardy and he's got a week to put a stranglehold back on it, it's just as likely that the decision to bring him north has already been made.

37 Jays - Josh Johnson: Which J.J. Will the Jays Get?

2013-03-22T15:42:00.000-04:00

Who: Josh Johnson. Right-handed starting pitcher. Bats left. Six-foot-seven, 250 pounds. Twenty-nine years old.

Provenance: Born in Minneapolis. Went to high school in and around Tulsa Oklahoma.

(Pause while I go listen to Don Williams' "Tulsa Time", which is a great song. Sorry. Onward.)

Selected in the fourth round of the 2002 amateur draft by the Florida Marlins. Made his major league debut at the age of 21 on September 10, 2005.

Contract Status: Entering the final season of a four-year, $39 million contract. Will earn $13.75 million in base salary this season. Bonus clauses include $1 million payout if he is named World Series MVP and $500,000 for winning the Cy Young.

Back of the Baseball Card: 3.15 ERA in 916.2 innings pitched in eight seasons, all with the Marlins. Struck out 21.9% of batters (8.17 per nine) and walked 8.1 % (3.02) in 154 games pitched, including 144 starts. Two-time All-Star, finished fifth in Cy Young voting in 2010.

2012 Stats: Started 31 games for the Marlins, posting a 3.81 ERA in 191.1 innings. Struck out 20.7% of batters (7.76 per nine) and walked 8.2% (3.06). Worth 3.8 wins above replacement according to Fangraphs, 3.1 per Baseball Reference and 3.0 per Baseball Prospectus.

2012 Repertoire, as per Brooks Baseball: Four seam fastball (51%, 93.5 MPH average); Slider (24%, 87.5 MPH), Curve (16%, 79.1 MPH). Changeup (5%, 87.8 MPH); Sinker (4%, 93.0 MPH).

Recent Injury History: Started only nine games at the start of 2011, before being sidelined with shoulder inflammation. Had previously missed the final month of 2010 with the same ailment. Had Tommy John Surgery in August, 2007.

Looking Back: Josh Johnson's 2012 season was one of the more scrutinized returns from injury in recent years.

After a remarkable 2010 season in which he won the NL ERA title (2.30), Johnson was set up to be one of the premier power pitchers in the game. He was building on that success admirably in early 2011 when his shoulder went awry, though the extent of the injury took a painfully long time to sort out. Though his last start was in May, he wasn't officially shut down until almost two months later.

That frustrating delay had fans watching throughout 2012 with a high level of trepidation. His fastball velocity, which dropped by more than two miles per hour from its 2010 levels (95.6 MPH), remained under constant scrutiny. A predictable mid-season dip in his fastball velocity raised alarms, but by the final starts of the season in September, he had begun to regain a couple of clicks on the pitch.

Also notable in Johnson's 2012 season is the increased use of a curveball. According to the Brooks Baseball database, he didn't throw a single curve in 2010, relying almost entirely on a four-seam/slider arsenal in that season.

For the most part, Johnson's peripheral numbers came back to their historical levels last season, though his inflated ERA is likely due to an uptick in his homer-to-flyball ratio. At 8.4%, last year's mark was double that of his 2010 season (4.2%, if you needed the math guidance), and marginally higher than his career mark (7.2%).

Looking Ahead: Johnson certainly benefited from playing in home parks that were sympathetic to pitchers through his first eight seasons.

He's held the opposition to a .623 OPS against between ProPlayer/Sun Life Stadium and the new Marlins Park, while putting up a still decent .692 OPS on the road. Still, he's never pitched in his career at Yankee Stadium or Fenway Park, so it will be interesting to see how the fun house atmosphere of those bizarro parks.

On the other hand, a pitcher who can miss a lot of bats can help to neutralize the effects of hitters parks.And thus far in the completely meaningless fake games of spring, Johnson has done a pretty snazzy job of sending batters back to the bench with their lumber in their hands, unscathed by leather. In his first four games, Johnson fanned 11 in 10.2 innings without walking a batter.

It might not be enough to proclaim that the fearsome hurler is back to his best form, but it's a nice sign in a spring that has elicited more than its share of caveats for poor performance by potential starting pitchers.

And since we're indulging in hoary old saws, it certainly bears mentioning that this is a contract year for Josh Johnson. It seems as though it is a long shot that the Jays will keep him in the longer term, but the question remains as to whether a great performance by JJ in the first four months will make him indispensable for the stretch run, or a key trade chip by the end of July.

Pessimistically: The deeper lineups of the American League make life more challenging for Johnson, bumping his ERA up and leaving him to minimize the damage from the fly balls that become dingers in some AL East parks. Shoulder/back/bunion pain (or what have you) undermines his season.

Optimistically: Regains his strength, while adding the wisdom and guile of age to his game. Asserts himself as a legitimate ace. Dominates in big games.

37 Jays: The Joyfully Ugly Game of Moises Sierra

2013-03-19T17:00:00.000-04:00

Who: Number 14, Moises Sierra. Corner outfielder. Six feet tall, 230 pounds. Bats right-handed, throws - and how - right-handed. Twenty-three years old.

Provenance: Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic. Signed as an amateur free agent in 2005.

Contract Status: Still on year-to-year deals. Has 65 days of Major League service time.

2012 Stats: In his big league debut, posted .274 OBP and .374 slugging with 44 strikeouts and eight walks in 157 plate appearances. Plus six dingers and a stolen base.

Back of the Baseball Card: Has improved progressively through his seven seasons of minor league ball. Overall, has a .332 OBP and .405 slugging, but his best showings have been in Double-A and Triple-A: .343/.439 with 19 HRs in 141 games at New Hampshire, .360/.472 with 17 HRs in 100 games at Las Vegas. Also posted an impressive .372 OBP in 185 PAs in the Dominican League this winter, walking 19 times versus 32 strikeouts.

Injury History: Missed most of 2010 with a stress fracture and a fracture of the hamate bone.

Looking Back: There were moments in 2012 where it seemed as though Moises Sierra was compiling his own personal blooper reel.

Fly balls were often an adventure, especially when he neglected to put his sunglasses on his face before an inning. He made some of the ugliest slides you'll ever see, and his baserunning seemed as though it should always have "Yakety Sax" playing as its soundtrack. At the plate, it seemed as though there wasn't a pitch that could be thrown in his direction that wouldn't elicit a swing.

So why is Sierra so darn lovable? Maybe it's the infectious abandon with which Sierra plays. It can be frustrating at moments, and if you didn't remind yourself that he's still just 23 years old, you might wonder if there is any salvaging such a raw player. There are just enough highs to make you think that one day, they might outweigh the lows.

If you can get past the some of the goofy-ugly play, it might be worth remembering that Sierra - at best an afterthought for franchise depth a year ago - eventually went on to hit as many homers as Travis Snider and Eric Thames combined. Or that he posted a better OPS than Yunel Escobar or Adeiny Hechevarria. Apples and oranges, but still.

If you couldn't find the affection for him based on the small exposure to him in Toronto last year, maybe his Dominican Winter League line could offer a small glimmer of hope that he could learn to address his weaker points. The fact that he walked in more than 10% of his plate appearances has to be encouraging, right?

And if you have caught Sierra's outings in the World Baseball Classic for the Dominican Republic, it's easy to get caught up in the moment that he's having in that tournament.

Looking Ahead: With that said, we shouldn't kid ourselves as to what Moises Sierra is. In the short term, he might be a fifth or sixth outfielder. Moreover, his value as a bench player is limited by the fact that he is a highly specious choice to be played in center field.

For 2013, Sierra will provide Triple-A depth, and a season in the International League will serve him well. Getting an honest assessment of Sierra's true talent level outside of the PCL would certainly help to asses whether if his progress through the higher levels of the minor leagues is an illusion, or if there's still room for growth as he reaches his prime seasons.

Pessimistically: Is a non-factor in Buffalo, and slips back or out of the Jays' future plans completely.

Optimistically: A more selective approach means better pitches, more production, and maybe a fringe role on the big league roster in 2014 or beyond.

37 Jays - Recasting Brett Cecil

2013-03-15T11:38:00.000-04:00

Who: Brett Aarion Cecil. Sport goggle aficionado. Left-handed pitcher, most recently in a relief role. Six-foot-one, with a weight listed at 215 pounds, though that is a moving target. Jersey number 27, age 26.

Provenance: Dunkirk, Maryland. Selected with the 38th pick overall of the 2007 amateur draft by the Blue Jays out of the University of Maryland. Made his major league debut less than two years later, on May 5, 2009.

Contract Status: No contract signed for 2013 as of yet. Is out of minor league options. First year of arbitration eligibility is next season.

Back of the Baseball Card: 4.79 ERA in 451.0 innings pitched over four seasons and 87 games, including 74 starts. Struck out 16.6 % of batters (6.47 per nine) and walked 8.1 % (3.13).

2012 Stats: Pitched 21 games for the Blue Jays, including nine starts. Posted a 5.71 ERA, striking out 18.9 % of batters (7.48 per nine) and walked 8.5 % (3.38). In 15 starts between Double-A New Hampshire and Triple-A Las Vegas, posted a 2.95 ERA in 82.1 innings with 67 strikeouts and 21 walks.

2012 Repertoire, as per Brooks Baseball: Four seam fastball (33%, 89.8 MPH average); Curve (22%, 79.3 MPH). Cutter (14%, 85.7 MPH); Changeup (14%, 82.5 MPH); Sinker (11%, 88.5 MPH); Slider (5%, 82.2 MPH).

Recent Injury History: Nursed a groin injury for two months of 2012 in the minors. Injured pitching hand cleaning a blender in 2011. Had a case of the dead arm in late 2010.

Looking Back: There are few players who are more confusing to evaluate than Cecil. For a few moments, Cecil was the Jays' best pitching prospect, and seemed to solidify a role in the rotation after a solid 2010 season: 4.22 ERA, 117 Ks and 54 BBs in 172.2 innings...and a 15-7, if that's your style.

If you were paying attention closely in the final months of the 2010 season, though, there were signs of the struggles that were to come. Cecil was shelved for a week with arm fatigue, and saw his fastball velocity drop off by a couple of miles per hour. In the moment, you could have written it off as a typical late season lag, but in the ensuing two years, that velocity never really returned.

With less heat behind his pitches, Cecil's homer-to-flyball ratio exploded from a very respectable 8.7% to 13.3% in 2011 and 14.5% in 2012. Couple this with a simultaneous rise in his fly ball rate - perhaps as a result of a less effective sinker? - and you see a rapid decline from a pitcher with peripherals that were tenuously those of a major league starter.

Towards the end of 2012, Cecil re-emerged in a return to the bullpen. With less of a workload per outing, Cecil seemingly felt free to let fly in his short stints, and his fastball velocity in September popped back up above 92 MPH.

One other odd note about Cecil in 2012: He has seemingly abandoned his slider, choosing to go with a curveball as his breaking pitch of choice. Throughout his emergence through the Jays' system, Cecil's slider was always the breaking pitch that was mentioned in the shorthand analyses of his arsenal, but by September of last season, he had seemingly stripped it out of his game, tossing the pitch just three times in 12 appearances at the end of last year.

Looking Ahead: A closer in college, the Jays spent much of the past five years stretching him out to make use of his expansive repertoire. Now, his best hopes to stick on the big league roster - and indeed, with the organization - come as he shifts back to the bullpen.

The Jays find themselves in a position where they have a fair bit of left-handed pitching that can step into the big league club's bullpen. In the pecking order of bullpen southpaws, Cecil will enter the season behind Darren Oliver and slightly ahead of Aaron Loup based on the latter having options remaining. Later in the season, Luis Perez will re-enter this crowded situation if his recovery from a July 2012 Tommy John procedure is successful.

Given that competition, Cecil will need to be something more than a middling middle-reliever to retain his spot on the roster.

Pessimistically: Cecil's homer rates continue to rise, and he shifts to the back of a smaller bullpen. And when you start to back yourself out on a plank like that, it isn't long before you realize suddenly how short it really is.

Optimistically: A more focused approach and the return of some velocity makes Cecil a reliable option to quell mid-game rallies. Pitches well enough to get a nice deal to buy out a few arbitration years.

37 Jays - Henry Blanco: The Last Squat of a Catch and Throw Guy

2013-03-13T13:17:00.000-04:00

Who: Henry Ramon Blanco. Forty-one years young. Five-foot-eleven, 220 pounds. Catcher. Bats right-handed.

Provenance: Caracas, Venezuela. Signed by the Los Angeles Dodgers as an amateur free agent in 1989. Made his major-league debut with the Dodgers in July, 1997.

Contract Status: Joined the Blue Jays on a one-year, non-guaranteed deal worth $750,000 in January, 2013.

Back of the Baseball Card: Fifteen MLB seasons with the Dodgers, Rockies, Brewers, Braves, Twins, Cubs, Padres, Mets and Diamondbacks. Posted a .291 OBP and .367 slugging in 921 games played (2937 plate appearances). Hit 69 homers. Posted an 8.0 career WAR (as per Fangraphs) and 3.4 WARP (Baseball Prospectus). Strike out rate of 17.4 %, walk rate of 8.2 %.

2012 Stats: Played in 21 games for the D-Backs with a slash line of .224 OBP/.281 SLG in 67 plate appearances. Strike out rate of 26.9%. Hit eight homers in 112 plate appearances in 2011 with Arizona.

Injury History: Had season-ending surgery last year year on his left thumb. Six DL stints in his career. A recurring problem with a herniated disc in his neck has kept sidelined him in 2007 and again in 2010.

Looking Back: The last time that Henry Blanco had something resembling an everyday job in the Majors was in 2004 with the Minnesota Twins. Which also coincides with the season in which Johan Santana won his first Cy Young Award. Just dropping that notion in there.

Since then, he's averaged 48 games and 148 games per season as a well-travelled backup. Along the way, he served as a personal catcher for Greg Maddux in his autumn years with the Cubs, and caught new Jay R.A. Dickey seven times in 2010 with the Mets.

Blanco's calling card is his catcher's mitt, but it can be difficult to evaluate it. We're in the nascent stages of the development of metrics to evaluate catchers' defensive value, but let's play along and look at Stolen Base Runs Saved (rSB). Since 2010, Blanco has caught 795.2 innings, and in that time, he's posted six runs saved by throwing out potential base stealers.

Not a bad number for a part-time player, considering Matt Wieters has posted 16 runs saved and Yadier Molina 14 over the same time period, but in more than six times as many innings. Meanwhile, J.P. Arencibia has posted a -8 in 1922.2 innings while Josh Thole has a -5 in 2059.0 innings caught.

Another defensive stat for catchers is RPP, which expresses how good a catcher is at blocking pitches though a runs above average measurement. In this stat, Blanco posts a 0.6 (29th among catchers with more than 700 innings caught since 2010), while Thole has a 1.4 (24th) and Arencibia has a -4.1 (52nd).

Looking Ahead: There's a notion that the relationship Blanco developed with Dickey in their brief time together motivated the Jays to give the veteran a deal heading into camp. Dickey has told reporters that Blanco was the best catcher that he's worked with when it comes to catching the knuckleball, but following the knuckleballer's subsequent comments on the subject is a bit like...well, catching a knuckleball.

Just a week ago, Jays manager John Gibbons told reporters that immediately following the World Baseball Classic, the team would pick a personal catcher for their uncommon staff ace. But today, Dickey is quoted by the National Post's John Lott as saying that he's not particularly fussed by the question.

"It’s a non-issue, really … I’m comfortable with all of them, so it gives Gibby a lot of latitude to be able to put in there who he thinks is the best fit for that day," he said. (NatPost)

It's possible - if not likely - that Dickey is remaining somewhat cagey on this issue so as not to upset the apple cart with the long line of other catchers who might end up kneeling before him over the course of the season. With J.P. Arencibia, Josh Thole and even Mike Nickeas as other potential options before the year is out, one might suspect that Dickey would like to avoid publicly naming favourites this early in the year.

In the longer term, it's hard to imagine a scenario where Blanco continues to catch Dickey through this season and into the next one and through to the end of his deal. At some point, either Thole or Arencibia will be taking a regular turn behind the plate.

But in this "all-in" year, it's not a bad option to see if Blanco and Dickey can recapture the magic they made together in that handful of starts three seasons ago.

Pessimistically: Is a negative at the bottom of the batting order and does not do enough to help Dickey along to justify his presence. Is not a reliable option to give J.P. Arencibia regular rest.

Optimistically: Makes beautiful music with Dickey. Becomes an invaluable tool for the pitching staff in the preparation before series. Holds his own at the plate. Hits a couple of taters.

37 Jays - The Outside Chance of Jeremy Jeffress

2013-03-12T11:46:00.000-04:00

Who: Jeremy Jeffress. Right-handed relief pitcher. Six feet tall, 195 pounds. Jersey number 33.

Provenance: Born in South Boston, Virginia. Selected with the 16th pick overall of the 2006 amateur draft by the Milwaukee Brewers out of Halifax County (VA) High School. (No, really!)

Acquired: Purchased from the Kansas City Royals on November 8th, 2012 after being designated for assignment.

Contract Status: No contract signed for 2013 as of yet. Is out of minor league options.

Back of the Baseball Card: 4.89 ERA in 37 relief appearances (38.2 innings) over three seasons with the Brewers and the Royals. Struck out 18.7% of batters while walking 16.5%. In 151 minor league games (421 innings), struck out 10.0 batters per nine innings while walking 5.4 per nine.

2012 Stats: At Triple-A Omaha - so standard Pacific Coast League caveats apply - threw 58 innings over 37 games, posting a 4.97 ERA. Struck out 25.3% of batters while walking 10.4%. In 13 games with the Royals, walked 13 and struck out 13. (Symmetry!)

2012 Repertoire, as per Brooks Baseball: Four seam fastball (76%, 95.7 MPH average); Curve (20%, 79.9 MPH). Ten cutters (92.2 MPH) and four changeups (88.3 MPH) mixed in for good measure.

Recent Injury History: No previous injury history reported.

Looking Back: If you knew much or anything about Jeremy Jeffress before this offseason, it might have been for his inclusion in the trade that brought Zach Greinke to Milwaukee. If you're enough of a fantasy baseball geek, you may remember his name being tossed around as a potential future closer after a nice September callup in 2010.

Or, perhaps you saw his name drift across the newswire for his multiple suspensions for marijuana use. Those three formal admonishments now leave him in a situation where his next smoke will put him (so sorry for this) one toke over the line.

(Perhaps I'm indulging in cornball references to songs from the 1970's to get over the idea that someone could be suspended for life from baseball for smoking weed, while a long list of ballplayers face little or no repercussions for getting liquored up, stumbling into the driver's seat of their car and actually driving off in a stupor. It's so far beyond absurd that I'll never understand it.)

Setting the off-field matters aside, Jeffress is an intriguing player. He has shown tantalizing velocity throughout his development, regularly touching 99 MPH with his fastball. But while he has always been able to let it fly, he seemingly had little sense of where it was going once it left his hand.

If you wanted to add a sympathetic note to Jeffress' minor league résumé, you could point to the fact that he travelled the bumpy and inhospitable road through the Texas and Pacific Coast leagues after the trade from Milwaukee.

Few young pitchers make it through that path unscathed, and Jeffress' first exposure to those leagues saw his K/BB ratio shrink to 1.10 in 2011.Was he pitching around batters? Attempting to avoid contact? Whatever happened initially, he improved that same metric dramatically last season in his second go-round in those hitters' leagues, with a 2.46 mark. Not dazzling, but an improvement to be sure.

Looking Ahead: Jeffress will be hard-pressed to make the Blue Jays out of Spring Training, and until several readers asked for a preview piece on him, he wasn't even going to make the cut in this 37-part series.

Jeffress' profile is very similar to Esmil Rogers, another fireballing bullpen righty who is out of options, and without a number of injuries between now and Opening Day, it is hard to imagine both of them remaining a Blue Jay into April.

Through the first few weeks of pre-season action, both pitchers have struck out a lot of batters - 11.4 per nine for Jeffress, 12.9 for Rogers - while keeping their walk totals reasonable: two walks each through 6.1 innings for Jeffress and five innings for Rogers. Both have given up a lot of hits - Jeffress: 6; Rogers: 7 - though the latter's hits seem a little more apt to leave the yard (three homers to one.)

But then, that's a tiny sliver of spring stats, to be taken with all the salt in the sea.

If it comes down to a choice between the two where the performance in the fake games of pre-spring create little separation, one wonders if the cost of the players might enter the equation. Rogers was the player that ultimately was the return for former manager John Farrell, while Jeffress was essentially a free pick up.

And while it might be unfair, the fact that Jeffress is so close to a lifetime ban might ultimately make him the more volatile asset. Which is terrible.

Pessimistically: Jeffress loses the handle in a couple of late spring games, and finds his way onto the waiver wire. Another team is certain to take a chance on him, given the opportunity.

Optimistically: Continues to show improvements in control, and ekes his way onto the April roster. Establishes himself as a solid middle reliever who can shut down a rally with a key strikeout.

37 Jays - Is Maicer Izturis Ready to Play Every Day?

2013-03-11T12:42:00.002-04:00

Who: Maicer Izturis. 32 years old, though he looks about five years younger. Second baseman, shortstop, third baseman. Switch-hitter, throws right-handed. Five-foot-eight, 170 pounds. Will wear number 3 this year for the Blue Jays. Brother of Cesar Izturis.

Provenance: Barquisimeto, Venezuela. Signed by Cleveland as an amateur free agent in 1998. Made his major-league debut as a Montreal Expo in the twilight of their final season.

Contract Status: Joined the Blue Jays on a three-year, $10 million contract in November, 2012.
Back of the Baseball Card: Nine MLB seasons with the Expos and Angels. Posted a .337 OBP and .381 slugging in 791 games (2913 plate appearances). Stole 91 bases, hit 34 homers. Posted a 13.5 career WAR (as per Fangraphs) and 8.5 WARP (Baseball Prospectus). Strike out rate of 10.7%, walk rate of 8.2%.

2012 Stats: .320 OBP and .315 slugging in 100 games (319 plate appearances) with the Angels. Strike out rate of 11.9%, walk rate of 7.8%. Two homers, 11 doubles, 17 stolen bases.

Injury History: Nine separate DL stints in his career. Issues vary from knee and hamstring issues early in his career, thumb surgery that ended his 2008 season, and shoulder trouble that sidelined him and rendered him ineffective in 2010. Was mostly healthy last season, with the exception of a ribcage issue late in the season.

Looking Back: There was a brief moment in November - before the joyous tumult of the rapid roster reconstruction - when Maicer Izturis was sum total of the Blue Jays' offseason acquisitions.

At the time, it seemed like a tidy bit of business: A veteran with a lot of versatility around the field - and a switch hitter to boot - who could fill in around the infield. If you were feeling particularly happy in the moment, you might even imagine him replicating his 2009 season (.359 OBP/.434 SLG/3.4 fWAR).

That season will likely go down as the high point in Izturis' career, but there's still value to be drawn from him in the later stages of his career. He's still a player who doesn't strike out a lot, makes lots of contact (89.5% of the time), and just two seasons ago stroked 35 doubles.

In the field, Izturis has handled second, short and third with little fall off at any of the three positions. The Ultimate Zone Rating metric - as frustrating as it is - looks with a mostly kind eye on his work at third and second, while there seems to be a lot of noise in the measurement of his work at short (really high highs and weirdly low lows). If you step back from those numbers and couple an impressionistic approach with the eye test, Izturis seems to be an estimable defensive player wherever his glove is utilized.

Even with that defensive versatility, Izturis struggled to keep himself in the starting lineup over the past eight seasons with the Anaheim nine. When his performance was ascendant and he managed to eke his way into an everyday role, injuries would sidetrack him and he'd find his way back to a fill-in role.

Looking Ahead: The frequency with which Izturis has been hurt should be a concern, especially if you ponder the possibility of his production being on a downward trajectory in the next three seasons.

If his shoulder issues have robbed him of whatever marginal increments of power that he had in the first place, Izturis' bat might not be enough to keep him out of a bench role for a team that is intent on contending this year.

As a second baseman - and it increasingly looks as though his defense might win him the starting role there - Izturis rates close to the league average offensively. (The average output for second basemen in 2012 was .318 OBP/.383 SLG according the Baseball Reference.) With a little BABIP luck, he could hold his own at the bottom of the order simply by getting on base to be cashed in when the lineup turns over and the bigger bats come up.

Pessimistically: Injuries take him out of the lineup for significant portions of the season, and limit his effectiveness when he is able to play. Loses starting job, and spends more time as a defensive replacement.

Optimistically: Is healthy enough to find some of the doubles power he displayed in 2009 and 2011. Possibly moves his way up the lineup to the sixth or seventh spot. Locks down the second base job and holds on to it all year.

37 Jays in 37ish Days - The Oddly Brilliant if Overpriced Mark Buehrle

2013-03-05T09:56:00.000-05:00

Who: Mark Buehrle. Number 56, left-handed starting pitcher. Big scary dog lover. Deceptively big boy: 6'2", 245 lbs.

Provenance: Born in St. Charles, Missouri, a half hour west of St. Louis. Drafted in the 38th round of the 1998 amateur draft by the Chicago White Sox out of Jefferson College.

Acquired: Acquired from the Miami Marlins as part of an 11-player deal in November, 2012.

Contract Status: Signed four-year, heavily back-loaded $58 million deal with Marlins before 2012. Is owed $11 million this season, as well as $18 million next year and $19 million in 2015.

Back of the Baseball Card: 3.82 ERA in 421 games (396 starts) over 12 seasons with the White Sox and one with the Marlins. Has thrown 2679 innings in his career, striking out 5.11 batters per nine (13.7%) and walked 2.03 per nine (5.4%).

2012 Stats: Buehrle gonna Buehrle. Threw over 200 innings (202.1) for the 12th straight season, posting a respectable 3.74 ERA in 31 starts. Struck out 5.56 per nine (15.1%) while walking 1.78 batters per nine (4.8%).

012 Repertoire, as per Brooks Baseball: Four seam fastball (29%, 85.7 MPH average); Changeup (26%, 78.8 MPH); Cutter (20%, 80.3 MPH); Sinker (14%, 85.1 MPH); Curve (11%, 71.8 MPH).

Recent Injury History: The personification of good health and reliability, Buehrle has yet to spend a day on the disabled list in his career. In twelve seasons. Let that sink in.

Looking Back: When the Marlins first signed Buehrle to his progressively costly four-year deal in the middle of their offseason splurge a year ago, the thought was that he was a very good pitcher but not worth that deal. And those last two years? Those were going to hurt. They might even be stuck with an untradeable asset in the end.

That's the nature of free agent contracts, though, and with the influx of new cash in the system, a bad deal or two can fit into a payroll without forcing a team into a hard or unpalatable decision.

Where this may become an issue is if Buehrle does not take to Toronto, especially in the absence of his family and beloved pit bulls. The option to separate himself from his family for the sake of their banned-in-Ontario terriers seems like one that will weigh on him personally, and it hardly seems like a tenable solution over the next three seasons.

On the other hand, even if the Jays were willing to move Buehrle for personal reasons, it seems unlikely that many teams would eat the last two years of his deal, much less give Toronto anything in return.

Looking Ahead: None of this speaks a word to Buehrle's performance. An efficient and reliable pitcher, Buehrle consistently wrings more than one would expect from an arsenal without much heat.

Essentially, he has thrived for more than a decade with the sort of stuff that gets Brett Cecil demoted. Where Buehrle succeeds is in his ability to throw all of his pitches for strikes, not allowing hitters to sit on a specific fastball or breaking ball.

Buehrle has also won four straight Gold Gloves, and does a nifty job of shutting down opponents' running games, allowing only five stolen bases in 2012 against three runners who were caught and four who were picked off.

There's a line of thought that the legendary speed with which Buehrle works - he's always among the league's five fastest workers - is the difference in keeping his own fielders on their toes while keeping opposing hitters off-balance. It's a notion that sounds a little hokey in this age of precise weights and measures. But the collection of skills that

Regardless: Buehrle's presence and the absence of Jason Frasor means that Jays fans might have an additional few hours of "me time" this summer. Use them as you will.

Pessimistically: Buerhle's return to the AL is inhospitable, especially in the funhouse ballparks in the Bronx in Boston. Misses his puppies, and hits the DL with a bruised heart. ERA finally matches his FIP, and bumps up over 4.40.

Optimistically: Keeps doing that thing he does, defying the odds, and math and nature. Makes 30+ starts and posts an ERA under 3.80 while providing sage counsel to Ricky Romero and Brett Cecil.

Playing Nice With Others, Part II

2013-03-03T21:28:00.000-05:00

Last year, Bryan O'Connor at the Replacement Level Baseball Blog asked me and three other bloggers who follow AL East teams to submit a little preview of the season as part of a collaborative effort to get a handle on the division as a whole. We're doing it again, so I hope you don't mind if I use this space to take a short break from Tao's commendable 37 Jays in 37-ish Days series to take a look from 30,000 feet instead. Zip over to Bryan's blog for the whole thing in the days ahead. In the meantime, here's what I came up with for the Jays in 2013.

What is your team’s ceiling? What has to go right for your team to win the AL East?

It's an odd feeling for Blue Jays fans to consider the ceiling of their chosen team and realize that for the first time in, oh, 15 years, that ceiling is a season of 90 to 95 wins and an American League East title. It's an odd feeling because for the last decade and a half, the best fans could do was hope for a bunch of things to break just right, and if they did, then maybe -- MAYBE -- the team could sniff the post-season.

You have to live north of the border to have a real sense of just how different things feel about the 2013 Blue Jays. Sportscasts and talk radio shows throughout the fall and winter are usually dominated by hockey, whether it's the NHL or lower-level junior competition. Baseball is the afterthought. I don't need to recap all the acquisitions and departures for you, but not only did Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos completely revamp the major league roster this off-season; he did it in a way that made a largely dormant fan base sit up and take notice. People are paying attention to the Blue Jays again in Canada.

Sure, during the 20-year dry spell we've endured, Jays fans have seen big names come to town before -- Roger Clemens, AJ Burnett, Frank Thomas -- but it never felt like it was part of a real plan to solidify the major league roster in a way that was intended to do anything more than just get some more butts in seats for a while. This off-season has appeared to be more of the culmination of a plan, such as it is, than previous efforts that seemed a lot more like flying by the seat of our pants.

Yet for all the talk about how Anthopoulos made his move for 2013 sensing weakness in New York, Boston, Tampa and Baltimore, he's been the first to tell anyone who ascribes that motive to him that they're off base. The East will be an enormously tough division in which to put up a 90 win season.

To do it, the Jays have to stay healthy. This seems obvious to the point of cliché , but Jays fans are pretty neurotic when it comes to injury after watching 60% of the starting rotation go down in a five day period last summer, watching a rogue's gallery of relievers parade through the bullpen and losing the likes of Jose Bautista and Brett Lawrie for extended periods. But health won't be enough. They can't afford for many players on the roster to take steps backward. A team that gets the best of R.A Dickey, Josh Johnson, Jose Reyes, and Melky Cabrera, just to name a few, will be competitive. A repeat power performance from Edwin Encarnacion and another MVP-caliber season from Jose Bautista would help immensely too. But none of those things are certain. They have to play the games, they tell me, and you don't get any pennants for winning the off-season.

What’s the floor for your team this season? What has to go wrong for them to miss the playoffs?

Perhaps it's 20 years of having cautious pessimism drilled into me when it comes to them, but despite the hype, there actually doesn't seem like that much at all that has to go wrong for the Jays to miss the playoffs and hit a floor of another 4th place finish. Some of that relates to the quality of the division, but some of it relates to lingering questions about the team.

There's a flamethrowing bullpen -- made up of a lot of guys who've only been successful for extremely short periods, if at all.

There's precocious talent in Colby Rasmus and Brett Lawrie -- talent that hasn't burst onto the scene the way many would have hoped in their respective tenures of fewer than two full seasons in Toronto.

There's a bit of pop in the DH and catcher positions with Adam Lind and J.P. Arencibia -- but serious concerns about their ability to get on base.

There's a core of upper-tier talent on the roster -- a core that's barely played together, to say nothing of the fact that many members of that core haven't played in the American League at all.

Negative outcomes in more than a couple of those little dichotomies could make all the pre-season love for the Blue Jays turn sour in a big hurry.

How do you see the division playing out? Is there one team you’re particularly afraid of?

This might be the first time in a long time that I've actually been afraid of the Yankees, Red Sox or Rays, because I'm far more accustomed to being resigned to their superiority and anticipating tough games and a losing record against them. Now I'm scared of all of them (maybe even the Orioles) because I feel like they can very easily take a sledgehammer to my hopes and dreams of post-season baseball whenever they meet for a series.

But spring is when we're supposed to be optimistic, so I'll make my prediction of a first place finish for the Blue Jays in 2013, with 93 wins. I'll pick the Yankees second, the Rays third, Red Sox fourth and Orioles fifth. Fortune favours the bold.

37 Jays in 37ish Jays - Colby Rasmus Is Running Out of Runway

2013-03-01T16:05:00.001-05:00

Who: Number 28, Colby Rasmus. Centrefielder. Bats left. Throws left. 26 years old. 6’2”, 200 lbs. Lovely hair.

Provenance: Columbus, Georgia, U.S.A. Attended high school nearby in Seale, Alabama. Drafted in the first round (28th overall) of the 2005 amateur draft by the St. Louis Cardinals. Received $1 million signing bonus.

Acquired: Via trade on July 27, 2011 as part of a three-team deal with the Cardinals and White Sox. Many players were involved. But that's neither here nor there.

Contract Status: Avoided arbitration with a one-year, $4.675 million deal in January. The Blue Jays hold one more year of arbitration rights before Rasmus becomes a free agent the 2014 season.

Back of the Baseball Card: .313 OBP, .422 slugging in 571 games (2205 plate appearances) with St. Louis and Toronto. Hit 76 homers and stole 24 bags. Posted a 9.2 career WAR (as per Fangraphs) and 3.3 WARP (Baseball Prospectus). Strike out rate of 23.0%, walk rate of 8.9%.

2012 Stats: Set career high in games played (151), but career low in OBP (.289). His OPS of .689 was only fractionally better than his previous low of .688 posted in 2011. Matched career high in home runs (23). Walk rate of 7.5% was lowest since his rookie season. Struck out 23.8% of the time.

Injury History: Missed a few games with groin problems in 2012. His only DL stint over his career was a month in late 2011 with a wrist sprain, but he has a long list of minor boo-boos in recent years: Fingers, abdomen, leg, knee, ankle, foot.

Looking Back: Colby Rasmus has become a polarizing figure among Jays fans. Many casual observers wonder what the fuss was about this alleged blue chip prospect who strikes out too much and never seems to live up to the hype.

On the other hand, those who like Colby like him a lot. If you cut up the season into convenient slices, you can find moments where he looks like the emerging star who can provide very good defense and tear the cover off the ball at the plate.

For instance: If you take the 52 games from May 5th through to the All-Star break, Rasmus posted a .908 OPS (.352 OBP) with 13 homers and 14 doubles. He also lowered his strikeout rate to 16.7% over that period. He was exciting in much of that first half of the season, and a fan could start to dream on the idea that he was finding his footing. If only that was the end of the story.

Following the All-Star break, Rasmus fell off significantly, with an almost unfathomable .515 OPS through his final 66 games of the season. Part of that might have been due to extraordinary bad luck, as evidenced by his .227 BABIP post-break. But it seemed as though some of the improvements made in his swing and approach - the quicker, quieter swing and his daring proximity to the plate - went missing at times as he struggled down the stretch.

I hate the word "inconsistent", because it is entirely overused in sports talk. But Rasmus seems to tinker with his swing and approach and mindset so often that you never really know which player is about to step into the box on any given at bat.

Looking Ahead: One wonders if Rasmus heard Anthony Gose's footsteps behind him as they took they took their frigid tour of Western Canada this winter.

While Gose might have struggled in his first taste of the Majors, there's reason to believe that over a full season, he might be able to put up equivalent offensive value to Rasmus' while providing defense that is at least the equal if not better. You have to think that the Jays' brain trust will closely monitor the return on their investment in Rasmus in 2013 with a view towards planning out the 2014 season.

And if we're talking about these players in econometric terms: Colby Rasmus is a volatile commodity. At Colby's best, it's hard to imagine anyone in the Jays' plans matching his dynamic offensive game. At his worst, he's a below-replacement-level centrefielder who might struggle to maintain his playing time on a team with more depth.

For those of us who genuinely like Rasmus, love watching him play and constantly hope for him to prove himself to the non-believers, this year could be agonizingly tense.

Pessimistically: Rasmus continues to hack away at the bottom of the order, doing little to keep his spot. He paves the way for a move out of Toronto to become someone else's reclamation project.

Optimistically: In a deeper lineup where he could have become a role player, Rasmus asserts himself as a significant bat in the middle of the lineup, posting an OPS over .800 with game-changing power.

37 Jays in 37ish Days: Yeah Yeah, I Wanna Loup, Baby

2013-02-28T16:28:00.001-05:00

Who: Aaron Loup. Left-handed relief pitcher. 5'11", 205 lbs. 25 years old. Still listed with jersey number 62, though that seems like a number you give to non-roster invitees.

Provenance: Born in Raceland, Louisiana. An hour west of New Orleans. Drafted out of Tulane University in the ninth round of the 2009 amateur draft by the Blue Jays. Received a $100,000 signing bonus.

Contract Status: Contract purchased by the Blue Jays in July 2012. No contract for 2013 as of yet. Has accumulated 83 days of Major League service time. Remains under the Jays' control for the foreseeable future.

Back of the Baseball Card: A stellar 2.64 ERA in 33 relief appearances (30.2 innings). Struck out 18.0% of batters (6.16 per nine innings), walking just 1.7 % (0.59/9). Induces ground balls 55.4% of the time.

2012 Repertoire, as per Brooks Baseball: Sinker (77%, 92.29 MPH average); Curve (21%, 78.85 MPH); Changeup (2%, threw 12 in total, 83.27 MPH).

Recent Injury History: Missed two months with an unknown injury at the end of 2010, and started 2011 on the DL.

Looking Back: As far as surprises go, there are few in 2012 that were as unexpected or delightful as Aaron Loup. (Actually, there were few pleasant surprises at all in 2012, but let's not focus on that.)

Few would have imagined before the 2012 season that Loup would emerge to be named the Blue Jays' rookie of the year. But with the cavalcade of busted pitching limbs thrust him onto the roster and into the bullpen fire mid-way through last season.

It wasn't hard to like Loup when he appeared on the scene: A lefty who throws a hard sinker with a funky side arm delivery is as aesthetically pleasing as all get out. For an unheralded rookie, Loup's appearances became must-see events and high points of the latter stages of the season. His effectiveness was the delicious icing on the cake.

In terms of setting himself up for a future role as a bullpen southpaw, Loup did a great job of nullifying left-handed batters in his somewhat abbreviated first go-round. Of the 60 lefties he faced, he gave up just 12 hits, two doubles and one walk while striking out eleven. And while his numbers were slightly higher against righties (.268 OBP, .370 SLG), but he was still effective enough not to be immediately pigeon-holed into a LOOGY role just yet.

If there is a reason to pull back on the reins of our enthusiasm for Loup, it's the fact that not all of his minor league numbers necessarily point to this sort of success. He posted a 4.66 ERA in high-A Dunedin in 2011, and a 4.54 the previous season in low-A Lansing. Also, his big league BABIP of .277 seems likely to rise, with some of the other numbers sure to follow.

Still, his strikeout to walk ratios have been impressive enough to thing that he can miss bats and keep free runners off base.

Looking Ahead: As good as Loup was, he'll be hard-pressed to make his way into the 12-man bullpen that Manager John Gibbons says he'll carry to start the season.

Gibby has pledged not to weigh player options into his considerations of who makes the team out of spring training...but with Darren Oliver being a lock - barring injury - and Brett Cecil out of options, it creates a very narrow opportunity for Loup at the outset of 2013.

On the other hand, depth is a beautiful problem to have, and Loup is well-positioned to slide into the first available slot in the bullpen, whether if it opens in March or April. And those slots always do.

Pessimistically: Comes back to reality to become. Spends time in Buffalo and serves as a depth arm at the bottom of the pen's pecking order. Is still forced to carry the Dora the Explorer backpack filled with candy.

Optimistically: Maintains something close to last year's performance, and is relied on in high-leverage situations to snuff out rallies and befuddle lefties. Develops a cult following. Gets a lower jersey number.

37 Jays in 37ish Days - Darren Oliver and that Old Black Magic

2013-02-27T17:19:00.001-05:00

Who: Number 38, Darren Oliver. Left-handed relief pitcher. 6'2", 200 lbs. 42 years old.

Provenance: Born in Kansas City. Graduated from Rio Lindo, California. Up Sacramento Way. Drafted in the third round of the 1988 amateur draft by the Texas Rangers.

Acquired: Signed as a free agent by the Blue Jays in January, 2012.

Contract Status: Blue Jays exercised his $3 million club option in October of 2012. Hilarity ensued. Free agent after 2013 season.

Back of the Baseball Card: 4.53 ERA in 716 games over 19 seasons with Texas, St. Louis, Texas, Boston, Colorado, Florida, Houston, the Mets, Angels, Texas (yup) and Toronto. 1866.2 innings pitched. Stuck out 5.88 batters per nine (15%) and walked 3.40 (8.7%)

2012 Stats: Continued his late career resurgence with a 2.06 ERA in 62 games (56.2 innings), marking the sixth consecutive season he lowered his ERA. Struck out 23.5% of batters faced (8.26 per nine innings) and walked 6.8 % (2.38).

012 Repertoire, as per Brooks Baseball: Four seam fastball (59%, 88.6 MPH average); Curve (24%, 76.12 MPH); Sinker (16%, 89.41 MPH); Changeup (threw 12 all year, 83.68 MPH).

Recent Injury History: Missed a month or so in 2004m and had a 15 day DL stint in 2009. Nothing since. Tommy John Surgery in May of 1991.

Looking Back: It's probably unfair that the memory of Darren Oliver that most Jays fans will carry in to the 2013 season is of the offseason contract communications snafus that became fodder for a few weeks.

It was certainly confusing, and many nasty things were hurled in the direction of the mostly affable middle-reliever. If nothing else, it reminded us of the existence of Jeff Frye. It probably also took some of the shine off that time he hit for the cycle.

Regardless, one would be hard-pressed to quibble with the results that he produced in 2012. Oliver was nasty against all hitters, stranding 84.8% of runners and holding batters to a .213 batting average against.

Oliver was tough on lefties, holding them to a .314 OBP and .330 slugging, but he was even tougher against righties (.252 OBP and a minuscule .262 slugging.)

Looking Ahead: It's hard to resist all of old saws about the value of veteran leadership. Given that Oliver had his ulnar collateral ligament swapped out when Marcus Stroman was five weeks old, one would think he has some perspective on the game to share to two generations of ballplayers coming through Toronto.

Moreover, Oliver made playoff appearances in six straight seasons from 2006 through 2011, so the hope would be that he could provide some ballast when the tides of the season begin to toss the good ship Blue Jays about.

But the expectations on Oliver are - and should be - far more tangible than that. He's not just a cheerleader playing out the string, and to compete in what will be an extraordinarily tight American League this season, the Jays need him to maintain his current streak as one of the most quietly effective relievers in baseball.

Pessimistically: This is the season when time and age finally catch up with Oliver, and maybe he becomes a decent left-handed specialist.The Jays might need to manage his workload to get him through the season.

Optimistically: Posts a sub-2.00 ERA, pitches some of the most important high-leverage innings down the stretch in the midst of a pennant chase.