Angst Now, or Angst Later?

The last time I blogged hereabouts, I was railing against the dying of the light, refusing to go gentle into that good night, swearing I would enjoy the last few weeks of the Blue Jays' disastrous 2012 season.  It's been a challenge, friends.

Since then, out of thirteen games, they've won... [counts]... TWO?  Two goddamn wins?  Yes, that's apparently accurate.  I've tried to focus on the positive -- the settling in of Adeiny Hechavarria, the emerging adequacy of Aaron Loup, I'm sure there are one or two others -- but losing sucks.  The fight to finish fourth in the division ahead of the equally discombobulated Boston Red Sox has been as dreary an endeavour as you might expect.

I think it's jealousy that I'm feeling, actually.  I've taken to cursing the improbable Orioles every time they pull another extra-inning win out of their hindquarters, because I refuse to believe the talent they've assembled there is better than what Toronto has on a position by position basis, yet there they are, challenging for the division lead in late September.  We haven't seen that for two decades as Jays fans, and to see another long-suffering AL East franchise enjoy such a stretch now makes me envious.

On the plus side, though, this ugliness has probably provided me with a certain amount of objectivity I didn't have before about some players on whom decisions will need to be made in the off-season.  As a fan, I want them all to succeed, and even when they don't, I often look past their flaws or assume they can be easily rectified with some off-season coaching, adjustments, and presumably pixie dust.  But this season's struggles have led me to question whether I'd be prepared to see even some of my favourite players be moved in off-season deals if it meant an upgrade.

I think it's healthy to begin to re-evaluate which players are untouchable when it comes time to address the needs that Alex Anthopoulos has candidly identified.  Last off-season, I was singing Yunel Escobar's praises as a long-term solution at shortstop.  Now, given his dismal offensive season, to say nothing of his other issues, I wouldn't hesitate to include him in a trade (even if that's admittedly selling low on an asset).  But the Escobar situation is pretty much self-evident by now.  Who else on the roster is untouchable now -- or more to the point, who would you have considered a longshot to be traded six months ago that now might be more realistically on the block?  Does Colby Rasmus still get the benefit of the doubt after what we've seen apart from one strong month?  Is next year's 23-year-old version of Brett Lawrie more valuable as a trade chip than he will be over the long term as the Blue Jays' every day third baseman?

I expect the Jays' marketing department and/or the Mounties to show up at my door at any moment for daring to suggest that the Blue Jays could trade Brett Lawrie.  And I'm not even saying they should.  Maybe it's just this bleak, brutal September that has me thinking things are worse than they are, and players that were once seen as cornerstones could now be trade bait.  Thankfully there are people who actually get paid to think about baseball making these decisions on a more informed basis than me.

But I do believe there are some surprises in store this off-season with respect to what the team will have to give up to get those much-needed upgrades.  Some prospect-porn types on whom we've been dreaming might end up on some other team's Eastern League affiliate.  And yes, even some big-league players to whom we've become attached will change uniforms too.  The last couple of off-seasons have been filled with one kind of angst:  the kind that comes from the team perceived to be doing little or nothing to improve.  If Anthopoulos starts dealing, we might be faced with a whole different kind of angst this time around.

The Yunel Escobar Eye Black Thing...and Why It Matters

As has been well-documented, this photo was taken by @james_in_to.

This is some next-level numbskullery.

Yunel Escobar spent nine innings in the playing area of the Rogers Centre on Saturday with something stupidly offensive written on his face. In an area where literally thousands of cameras would be pointed in his direction to document the words scrawled on his eye black patches.

What "Tu ere maricon" actually means is a subject of some hair-splitting at this point, but most translations point to it being a slur against gay men. At best, it might mean "you are a sissy" or "you are an effeminate coward".

It's entirely possible that this would have slipped by with little notice, except that a dedicated fan of the Blue Jays who often takes pictures from his vantage point behind the dugout noticed those callous words. When he realized what the words meant  - and he went to pains to find out - he was rightfully upset by them. But he was conflicted as to whether if he should even publish the picture, in spite of the fact that he found it offensive and unacceptable. He felt some loyalty towards the team, and also some loyalty towards the player. As a season ticket holder, he sees them at most games, and some of them smile and nod and wave in his direction, recognizing him as a die-hard fan.

But ultimately, he couldn't let it lie. Nor should he have.

There are those who want to slough off this story as much ado about nothing. They say that Anglophones, as outsiders to the culture and language, can't accurately understand the context, meaning or nuance of the term, or how commonly it is used within certain Spanish-speaking cultures. As someone who is bilingual, I find that argument a tad convenient and unconvincing.

Still others might see it as a "boys will be boys" indiscretion. These are the sort of epithets that are still common within the realm of locker room chatter, and Escobar was likely just horsing around. It's entirely likely that the message had less to do with hate than with lunkheaded nitwittery.

There's also still some elements of this story that need to be sorted out, including who actually wrote those words and how they ended up on Escobar's face. Moreover, who else - teammates, coaches, management - noticed this and when did they know?

Absent that information, I'll pass over what I think should be done to remedy the situation. But let me say why I think this matters.

Don't mistake me for Helen Lovejoy, the preacher's wife from the Simpsons when I ask that you think of the children. I feel embarrassed even going there. But as young boys begin the transition towards being young men, they pick up on cues for what is appropriate from a lot of really dumb places. From TV, from the movies, and when it comes to notions of "manhood", especially from sports.

When I think about where my attitudes about homosexuality were first formed, I immediately flash back to Eddie Murphy's wildy over-the-top interpretations of gay men in his stand up act or in Beverly Hills Cop. Or the Jack Tripper character in Three's Company. It's ridiculous, I know. But for most of my adolescence, an affected lisp and an exaggerated hand on the hip constituted high comedy. And it reinforced the "differentness" of homosexuals to a point which almost completely obscured their humanity.

Even within the past year, I tweeted out something in which the punchline was, more or less, "like a girl." I'm lucky to have a multitude of smart female followers who were quick to point out that while I might have found the quip to be funny, they found it hurtful.

And when it comes to Yunel Escobar, how many Blue Jays fans took the consternation shown towards him in Atlanta as some symbol of what a bunch of backwoods, uncivilized yahoos the fans, broadcasters and members of the Braves were? I'll cop to having made that sort comment. Sometimes, you forget how deeply rooted some of this stuff becomes.

And maybe that's the point. Sports at all levels have allowed this casual homophobia to take root and and become the norm. How many times have you heard hockey fans refer to the Canucks' Swedish twins as the "Sedin Sisters"? How many times have you heard an athlete taunt someone with such a slur, or heard something just as offensive from a fellow patron in the stands? Questioning an opponent's manhood, insinuating that his level of courage is not up to snuff because he's either female or gay are de rigeur.

What shouldn't be lost in this is the amount of character demonstrated by the photographer. He saw something. He saw it was wrong and he said something. It might not have been what was most advantageous to the team or the player for which he roots with a passion that few can match. But for James, there was something bigger at stake. There aren't many of us who would have seen that bigger picture. There aren't many of us who would have spoken up. And this is how these things perpetuate themselves.

Now, as we wait for the official response, one can only hope that the Blue Jays take the opportunity to demonstrate their character in the face of these events and show their willingness to help contribute to the change that can make for a more compassionate and tolerant world. They owe their fans that much.

They certainly owe James that much.

Nobody Said It Would Be Easy

It's amazing what a short losing streak can do to a team in the American League East, isn't it?  Make no mistake, the Blue Jays are in the midst of a bit of a funk, but it's not a historically bad spell of losing, nor has it come against teams they "should" be beating with more regularity.  Yet here they are:  at the time of writing, they've been swept in Arlington, after losing two of three in Tampa, and all of a sudden, they're back to being .500 for the first time since April 19.

All of which wouldn't be so bad if the Jays were in a normal, sane, happy division where a team can coast along winning one game for every one they lose, maybe get hot at some point in the summer, and still be in the thick of a playoff race.  But that's not the AL East.  Things are still a little topsy-turvy in the division -- I maintain that there's something altogether unholy about the Baltimore Orioles even being close to first place this late in the season, and I'm stocking up on holy water just in case -- but, as Mike Axisa of Yankees site River Avenue Blues pointed out on Twitter, it's starting to look a little more familiar.

So the Jays will wake up tomorrow far closer to last place in the American League East than they've been all season.  Last place!  After being in a playoff spot just a few short days ago!  The arse is gone right out of 'er!  Would you say it's time for our viewers to crack each other's heads open and feast on the goo inside?  Yes, I would, Org Guy.

Now: let's not be too sarcastically sanguine about things.  Winning is better than losing, and I'd be a helluva lot happier if this team could find a way to win again.  It's a lot more challenging, though, when you're already dealing with health issues in the batting order that created the curious double play combination of Brett Lawrie-Omar Vizquel in the later innings today.  Kelly Johnson's cortisone shot in his leg, stacked on top of Yunel Escobar's departure with a groin issue, will likely necessitate more roster moves.  Don't look now, but the shuttle between the big club and Las Vegas is getting much more frequent, and there are no signs of it slowing down.  We might get an Adeiny Hechavarria sighting on the big league roster before the week is out.  Unfortunately, far too many of his 51s teammates, especially in the bullpen, have been summoned ahead of him, and having Texas take a... well, a Texas-sized chunk out of the pitching staff this weekend didn't help matters.

If there are tickets for flights back to Vegas in the travelling secretary's desk drawer, it feels like only a matter of time before one ends up in Eric Thames' locker.  The somewhat defensible decision to take advantage of Travis Snider's last remaining option year, keeping Thames in Toronto for the start of the season, has simply not been a success.  Unlike the clear improvement over time that we've seen from Colby Rasmus, it doesn't look like more at-bats will make it much better for Thames.  It's easy to say we all predicted this and that Snider should have been up the whole time, but it shouldn't be forgotten that Thames didn't do anything to lose the job to open the year.  Fair's fair, but by now, after -0.5 bWAR on the still-young season, I think the team knows what it has in Thames, and it isn't anything special.  I'd be a lot more optimistic about not only a switch in left field, but an overall improvement out of the position, if Snider didn't seem to have some lingering wrist issues he can't seem to shake.

A Travis Snider injection, or a Vladdy Guerrerro, Adeiny Hechavarria or Anthony Gose, aren't going to make this team an instant contender (or at least not a significantly greater threat to contend than they are currently).  But a winning streak -- a real, honest-to-goodness streak of like seven straight wins -- would sure mean a lot to this team.  The Jays have won four in a row on three separate occasions in 2012.  In the AL East, four in a row just never seems like enough, and there are so many landmines in between those strings of wins.  They need to start dodging more of them.

30 Jays in 30 Days - Yunel Escobar Is Our One and Only Yu

Who: Yunel Escobar, No. 5. Shortstop. 6’2, 205 LBS. 29 years old. Five MLB seasons in Atlanta and Toronto, 639 games played.

Provenance: La Habana, Cuba. Drafted in the second round of the 2005 amateur draft by Atlanta. Acquired by the Blue Jays on July 14, 2010 along with Jo-Jo Reyes in exchange for SS Tyler Pastornicky, LHP Tim Collins and SS Alex Gonzalez.

Contract Status: Signed two-year, $10 million contract extension last season, which begins this year. Blue Jays hold two additional option years at $5 million per season for 2014 and 2015.

Tao-Approved Hashtags: #YEscobar! #YuMad?

Career Stats: .289 AVG, .366 OBP, .401 SLG, .766 OPS in 2703 plate appearances. 44 home runs, 118 doubles, 21 stolen bases, 351 runs scored.

2011 Stats: .290 AVG, .369 OBP, .413 SLG, .782 OPS in 590 plate appearances over 133 games. 11 homers and 77 runs scored. 4.3 wins above replacement (as per Fangraphs).

Love for the Glove: Yunel has never posted negative Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) numbers at shortstop in any of his major league seasons. His 45.0 runs saved (according to Total Zone with Location Data (TZL)) is tops among MLB shortstops since 2007. His UZR/150 over that time is only eighth best (3.0), and suffers because of 65 fielding errors (including 36 throwing errors).

Looking Back: There were few stories that were as pleasant to watch unfold as Yunel Escobar’s last season. After a cold end to his first season as a Blue Jay, Escobar thrived at the top of order, spending 111 games in the leadoff spot and posting a .366 OBP in the role. Moreover, he looked like he was having fun, and his joy on the field is pretty infectious.

Escobar continued to be a bit of a curiosity, in that he is a big-bodied shortstop without a ton of power (his .121 isolated power mark last season placed him 12th among qualified shortstops). He also does not possess an extraordinary level of speed, having been successful on only three steals attempts last season. On the other hand, he never gets cheated on an at bat, and managed to leg out a team-high 19 infield hits in 2011

One of the most remarkable improvements for Escobar last season was the smoothing out of a hitch in his swing that contributed to a lot of pop-ups in 2010. He dropped his rate of infield fly balls from 10.6% in 2010 to a remarkable 0.9% in 2011, which was the third lowest mark in all of baseball (behind Howie Kendrick’s 0.0% and Joey Votto’s 0.6%.)

Escobar’s patience, willingness to take a walk and ability to hit the ball to all fields made him a valuable piece of the Jays offense, and likely the best leadoff hitter the team has seen in some time.

Looking Forward: With a new (and very club-friendly) deal to his name, Yunel would appear to be a Blue Jay for at least the next two years, and maybe beyond. He’s a solid all-around player, though last year’s offensive performance is likely close to the top-end of what we can expect from him going forward. At 29, it’s hard to argue that there’s much additional upside yet to be unearthed. (Is that a mixed metaphor?)

We’ve always had concerns about Escobar’s build, because a big strong body like his seems destined to break down and slow up as he ages. Moreover, the bat doesn’t really play in a corner infield spot, so it won’t be as easy as sliding him over if his dexterity eludes him. On the other hand, some of Escobar’s excellence in the field owes to smart positioning and taking good first steps to the ball, which are attributes which should hang in there, even as he crosses that precipice into his thirties.

The Jays will soon be placed into a position of having to make a decision on Adeiny Hechavarria’s role with the big league club, but with the news out of Spring Training that he’s begun taking ground balls at second, it appears as though the team is willing to move forward with Escobar.

2012 Expectations: Take out a few months where he became a whipping boy in Atlanta, and Yunel’s performance over his five years of big league ball look pretty consistent. For the coming season, it’s reasonable to expect an OPS somewhere above .760. Add in an extra homer every six weeks or an extra double per month, and that number crawls up over .800.

All of which would make us happy to be a fan Yunel.

The Significance of Yunel Escobar

The Boston Red Sox traded ex-Blue Jay Marco Scutaro to the Colorado Rockies the other day. You may be asking yourself, “Why? Who’s gonna play shortstop for them in 2012?” and you wouldn’t be alone. Unless you believe that the team is making a won’t-take-no-for-an-answer push to re-acquire Hanley Ramirez, the move doesn’t seem to make a great deal of sense for the Sox for 2012.

The players equipped to defensively handle the shortstop position are quite often poorly equipped to hit at the major-league level. Those whose bats stand out at the position often get moved elsewhere on the diamond (see Rodriguez, Alex and Cabrera, Miguel). Scutaro adequately did the job in the field and at the plate – and even though he’s clearly on the back end of his career and coming off some injuries, he’s still better than most. It’s a tough position to fill, so trading a capable shortstop and not getting one in return has the potential to be a blow to a major league roster.

Mike Aviles and Nick Punto are useful-enough big leaguers, but there’s a reason Boston is looking ahead to a platoon arrangement for the two of them: because neither of them are good enough to do the job for 140+ games on their own. Frankly, it’s a situation Jays fans know pretty well.

There was a bona fide decade of darkness in Toronto at the shortstop position until Alex Anthopoulos swung the deal sending Tim Collins, Tyler Pastornicky and, most significantly, Alex Gonzalez to the Braves for Yunel Escobar (oh, and Jo Jo Reyes too, but never mind that).

Gonzalez was really just the latest in a revolving door of marginal big league talent that had cycled through the position since the turn of the century. Setting aside our beloved John McDonald (and forgetting, as so many do, about how dismal with the bat he really is, as his career .275 OBP illustrates), the rogues’ gallery included:

Scrappygritty David Eckstein;
Prospect bust Russ Adams;
Chris “Hey, Remember Chris Gomez?” Gomez;
Chris Woodward;
A 37-year-old Mike Bordick; and
A couple partial seasons from Felipe Lopez before he was shipped out of town.

(Funny thing: Felipe Lopez was traded in part because there was a perception of middle infield depth in the system at the time. Worked out real nice in the subsequent years, dontcha think?)

Before all that, we were treated to the Other, More Handsome Alex Gonzalez, and a season of really fun craziness from Tony Batista.

In 2009 and 2010, the team basically fell ass-backwards into some above-average contributions from Scutaro and Gonzalez, but neither was a long-term fix at the position.

That never came until Gonzalez was flipped for Yunel Escobar. And since there’s Sweet Fuck All else going on in the baseball world in the depths of January, I’m going to sing his praises a little bit.

I think we take for granted just how important an addition to this team Escobar has been. In the mighty American League East, you can make a compelling case that he’s the best every-day shortstop in the division (matched up against weaker platoons in Boston and Tampa, a declining Derek Jeter, and a more one-dimensional J.J. Hardy, on whom Escobar has 40 points of career OBP at the same age).

Escobar can be penciled in at the top of the lineup card for the foreseeable future, getting on base at a respectable clip, and playing solid defensive at a premium defensive position. That, as a lot of other teams know and the Jays experienced for far too long, is worth a whole lot in the major leagues.

When the Jays do take that next step into the post-season and greater glories (as I think they will), I’m convinced we’ll look back at the Escobar acquisition as a turning point. For those of us who believe that the team is making clear, significant strides to building an organization that can reach the Holy Grail of “sustained success”, Yunel Escobar is Exhibit A.

Three Thoughts on the Yunel Signing

These might be a bit too light or sparse to even be considered thoughts. Whims maybe, at best. (Have we made that joke before? It's one of our favorites.)

1) Timing is Everything: It's hard to think of a sweeter note on which to begin the interleague series in Atlanta than to have just announced a two-to-four year commitment to the guy that they could not wait to run out of town. If Yunel remains on pace this season and reclaims the 3.7/4.5 fWAR form he had in his initial pro seasons, the Jays will be getting a winning contribution from him as they ascend the AL East ranks, while the good old boys who chased him out of town will be stewing in their retirement and knocking up waffle house waitresses. Or something like that. Whatever: Eat it, ATL. (And do us a solid: Make sure that you fly the Canadian flag right side up this week, mmm'kay?)

2) Patience is a Virtue: There's this comment that keeps echoing in our head this year, courtesy of the father-in-law: "That Travis Snider...man, what a disappointment." This was in the first week of the season, mind you. And it's been echoed or magnified by others with any number of targets. Seemingly, for Toronto sports fans, the foam finger has been replaced by a pitchfork for one hand and a torch for the other, as any player who has a bad month/week/game/at bat gets figuratively chased out of town. As was the mistake in Atlanta with Yunel.

The point here is not to get overly comfortable with the likes of Juan Rivera or Edwin Encarnacion. (Though EE is actually younger than Yunel, for whatever that's worth.) But the notion of "this player is worthless, so he must be replaced immediately" is far too common considering what a reactionary and short-sighted response it is.

It's been stated repeatedly, here and all around the game: Baseball is a game of failure. If you cannot embrace that, then every throw in the dirt, every pop up to the infield, and every out with RISP will drive you nuts. You gotta breathe your way through that stuff, son.

And germane to this conversation: Yunel was once washing out of a dumb organization who wanted to give up on the future in favour of the next week's win. And then Brooks Conrad let the present skip under his glove anyhow.

3) Where Does Yunel Play?: The very first thought that we had upon seeing Yunel in a Blue Jays uni was: That cat's moving to third base. He's by no means the lanky, Tony Fernandez model of a shortstop who looks as though he's able to make all sorts of plays up the middle to save runs. Yunel is big and broad across the shoulders, and his straight ahead footspeed is not every impressive. He just doesn't look like he should be able to get to balls. And yet, as we've now had close to a full year of Yunel, we're starting to come back around on this thought.

(The fact that SS prospect Adeiny Hechevarria looks as though he may qualify as Alex Anthopoulos' first significant miss certainly helps to push this thought forward. Though, if we're heeding our own guidance from above, we won't lose the faith quite yet.)

There are a few things that we really like about watching Yunel play shortstop. He's cut down on some of the off-balance throws and has planted himself more consistently this year, firing hard and accurate lasers directly into Adam Lind's trapper. He also positions himself well with each batter, and has good lateral speed, meaning he gets to a lot of balls not by reacting to where the ball is hit, but by anticipating it and getting squared up in front of the ball.

We realize that probably sounds like middle age baseball writer hokum. It may well be. Yunel is posting a -1.9 UZR to this point, attributable mostly to a decline in range. (-2.5 Range Runs Above Average...or so they say. Generally, Yunel has been positive in this metric through his career, so we'll see what the second half brings.)

Besides: Cal Ripken Jr., who was 6'4" and 225 lbs played short until he was 35. Yunel (6'2", 200 lbs) should be able to handle the position until the end of this two-plus-one-plus-one deal, right?

Yunel plays the game the Blue Jays way

So Alex Anthopoulos went off the radar and locked up Yunel for (potentially) the next four seasons at $5M per, huh? Did not see that coming, which means I probably should have.

The news is fresh off the wire as of this posting, so I haven't yet had time to fully wrap my mind around it..... but I don't think I'm going to overthink this one.

I like watching Yunel Escobar play baseball. Five million dollars per season for an all-star calibre player at a position like shortstop is not a lot of money (relatively speaking). So what's not to like?

I suppose there are going to be a lot of reasons put out there in the days (hours?) ahead. With any player, there are worries that with a big contract comes reduced motivation. Bobby Cox and The Braves Way disciples will probably overstate the significance of this factor when applied to Yunel (too flashy! He dogs it! No grit!).

Others will wonder if Yunel will hold up at short for the duration of the contract, and if he doesn't, well.... maybe $5M per doesn't look as good for a second baseman with average pop and speed. I don't know. But at two years guaranteed and two seasons at club option, does that even matter?

A few other points:

* What does the signing say about the Jays thoughts on the development of Adeiny Hechavarria and his potential as a long-term fit at the major league level? He's only 22, but a career minor league OPS in the low .600's isn't.... promising, let's say.

* ... or does it speak more to the club's thoughts on Aaron Hill, who has team options hanging in the balance?

* Par for the course with Anthopoulos, but the "out of nowhere" factor with this signing reinforces my belief that we could see a potentially significant shuffling of the deck as the season plays out and the deadline approaches.

And once again, I'll mention that I like watching Yunel Escobar play baseball. I grew up idolizing Tony Fernandez flash his glove and play shortstop with flair, and Yunel is most definitely not shy about making his swag known.

I'm sure many folks smarter than this guy will provide many defensible reasons as to why this is not a good deal for the Jays, but in the meantime, I'll just enjoy watching the guy play.

Yu, Knee

Since when did this season turn into the Yunel Escobar show?

Within the space of 24 hours, he went 6-for-8 with four runs scored and a walk-off homer. Also, he got his grill really familiar with the knee of one of those LaRoche boys while performing one of the ugliest slides we've ever seen. And we played softball with drunken fat men.

Escobar's injury is concerning, given both what he's produced thus far in the season as well as the potential long-term impact of head injuries. He certainly looked like he was in significant discomfort when taking his position in the field for the next inning, but here's hoping that the long term effects are minimal.

Escobar will be out of the lineup for this afternoon's matchup, but we'd be hanging off of every dugout shot of him if only we could find a way to sneak out of the office to watch the game.

(And BTW MLB.TV, we would shell out the money today for your service if we could watch Jays games online instead of being blacked out from the Georgia Strait to the Northumberland Strait ot the Beaufort Sea.)

Lunchables: The always fun HitTracker.com has yet to post the numbers for Travis Snider's first screaming line drive homer of the year, but we felt for the dude who had the ball rip through his grasp. Though his pals gave him grief for his inability to come up with the ball, he's not the first fan to flinch when a whistling laser from Snider's bat came their way.

Check out the prudently short arms that this fan in Cleveland (they exist!) developed when trying to make a barehanded grab on this 119.7 mph liner off Snider's bat last May. It was the fifth hardest hit homer in all of baseball last year, and if there is one skill or attribute above hustle and grit and heart and intagible leaderificness that we really appreciate, it's guys whe hit the ball hard like they've got a grudge against it.

Game Time! Today's the sort of day where being a working stiff outside of the GTA really sucks, because we'd really like to take some strategic consultations down to the Dome for three hours this afternoon.

RickRo versus that punk Trevor Cahill at 12:37. We'll be hanging off of every tweet for the rest of the afternoon.

Yu's the Man

Passing thoughts and whimsy on another humdinger of a game...

Good Fortune Teller: So Yunel Escobar apparently knew that he was going to win last night's game. (Or that's his story.) Whatever the case, he certainly played through the leaner parts of last night's game as though he was trying to make real his premonition. With three hits, three runs scored and two driven in on his game-winning walk-off homer, June-Yell accounted for the bulk of Toronto's offense. Moreover, his defense looks sharp and he is more focused with his plays than anything we saw last year.

If this is the real Yunel, we can't wait to watch him play like this all year long.

Not-Quite-Summer of Jo-Jo: For about two innings, things looked okay for our hero. And if we were handier with Pitch FX and Excel, we might really be able to make some handsome excuses for the object of our affections. As it stands, we'll offer forth two graphs from Brooks Baseball that both give us hope and give us pause.

First, the good (or so we hope), which was Jo-Jo's release point:

We realize this looks like a neat little pile of Skittles, but what it tells us is that his delivery is sound and that there's some good to work with from here on out. Phew.

Now, as to where the balls went when they left Jo-Jo's hand, that's the part that gives us the sadness.
Now, our pile of Skittles is a little bit more splayed out, but unfortunately, way too many of them are placed right in the middle-to-upper section of the strike zone. And there's not many of them that are yellow, which is the tasty look of balls at which the other guys swung and missed. This could be the result of the fact that Jo-Jo did not do a good enough job of mixing his pitches and speeds, generally let fly with fastballs. He tossed 25 four-seamers and 28 two-seamers out of 75 total pitches, with 18 sliders to go along with a pair of changeups and a pair of curveballs. If the A's were sitting on the fastball, they certainly got a healthy dose of them.

Now, if we're going to make some excuses for our best pal in the rotation, we might note the number of green Skittles that are sitting within the strike zone, where they do not belong if a home plate umpire is calling the game in a manner befitting a man who is supposed to be at the top echelon of his chosen profession. So it is possible that after throwing five pitches that deserved to be called strikes go the other way, maybe Jo-Jo was struggling to align his location with the peculiarities of home plate umpire Gary Cederstrom.

Another fun note: Jo-Jo's last pitch of the game is the ball that sits right in the middle of the line that denotes the bottom of the strike zone. So, probably a borderline strike, but one that Cederstrom wasn't giving last night.

Now that we've got you feeling sorry for plight of our hero, here's one last graphy bit that turns the focus back onto him. Below is the at bat to Connor Jackson in the third, in which the wheels start to come off the Jo-Jo Wagon.
You'll note just how high in the zone every pitch in this at bat is. (Ball one is scarcely even visible in the graph. We can't recall a ball being thrown into the press box, but we were watching the game through tears at this point.)

Jo-Jo will likely get at least one more start to redeem himself, and if so, we're hopeful of two things in the next go-round: That he (like his lefty-handed colleague Mr. Squints) listens to the sage words of Pappy Walton and pounds down in the zone, and that he mixes his speeds a little better.

We shoulda known that it was too early to declare the Summer of Jo-Jo, especially when it started snowing again.

Making something out of numbers that mean nothing

(I've never actually seen the show above. Though both of those guys seems like real mensches.)

Indulge us, if you will, the latitude to contradict¹ ourselves.²

If years of reading this blog hasn't led you to the notion that we don't put much stock into Spring Training, then perhaps you've missed the past few years where we refer to this part of the schedule as "fake games".

And yet...tilt your head in just the right way, and there's something to be gleaned from the collected output of 21 exhibition matches. Not that we think that they are overly predictive, but some of the whatnot and wherefore makes for amusing chatter. So here are a few curios that we've plucked out of the pile.

Iron Men: Both Jonathan Diaz and David Cooper have played in 20 games thus far in the spring, most of any of the Dunedin denizens. Though most of those appearances have come off the bench, allowing their big league brethren to peel out of the parking lot before the last pitch is thrown, we suspect that the brain trust have chosen to take a longer look at them in the pre-season. Same goes for Eric Thames, whose 46 ABs (in 18 games) are most this spring for the Jays.

Why the lingering gaze? In the case of Thames and Cooper, we get the sense that a decision has to be made within the next 12 months on where they fit in the plans for the future, and this spring is a crucial piece of their evaluations. Neither player is heading north any time soon, but the 2012-2013 rosters are beginning to take shape. And as well as they've performed so far, we suspect that neither will have any sort of profound impact on those future contenders.

As for Diaz, he sounds as though he's in possession of a magnificent glove, though his acumen with the bat makes Mike McCoy seem like the Splendid Splinter. Our guess is that he's a body who can fill in at enough positions to get the Jays through the overly long tune-up period.

Ratios! We heard ESPN fantasy dude Nate Ravitz make mention on his podcast this week that the only stat he observes through the spring are K-to-walk ratios for pitchers. Which seems about right to us, especially with his proviso that the ratio has to be really impressive or really bad to catch his attention. So here's what we found upon a brief review of the Jays' hurlers:

Jesse Litsch - 17Ks/3 BBs. Woah. If we had any reservation about his spot in the rotation, it's probably gone. For now.

Brandon Morrow - 16Ks/3 BBs. Okay, we're not going to put too much stock into this...But Jesse Litsch's K/BB ratio is slightly better than Brandon Morrow's so far. Roll that around your noggin for a while.

Kyle Drabek - 9Ks/1 BB. Still under a strikeout per inning pitched, but you at least have a sense that he's ready to step in as the fourth/fifth guy and work his way up the ladder.

Bret Cecil - 10Ks/4BBs. Sounds about right.

Ricky Romero - 10Ks/9BBs. Aside from Aaron Hill's spotty attendance record so far, this is the March development that concerns us most. When we watched him a few weekends ago, he looked as though he had great control over all his pitches...so we'll chalk this up to spring experimentation.

David Purcey - 5Ks/7BBs. That's how you pitch your way out of town. Or pitch Marc Rzepczynski (9/6) into contention for your spot in the bullpen.

Other fun numbers of note: The Jays are taking a lot of walks so far, with J.P. Arencibia leading the way with six (tied with Thames). For all of the talk about his bad start at the plate, we'll gladly take the walks...Rajai Davis is slugging .639, with three homers and five doubles so far. Now that's our kind of slap-hitter...Yunel Escobar has 16 hits and five walks so far, which gives us a modicum of hope that he'll be back to a 3ish WAR.

So that's about it. We could really parse these numb3rs and try to figure out who the killer is before the third commercial break, but that would just make us look silly, wouldn't it?

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1. Walt Whitman wrote: Do I contradict myself? Very well then I contradict myself, (I am large, I contain multitudes.) So there.

2. Amongst the hazards of my continuing insistence on using this "we" voice is getting stuck with this awkward quandry: "ourself" or "ourselves"? Either way sounds wrong. Comes off simultaneously as oafish and poofy . No small feat, that.

Imaginary Battles - Yunel vs. Lunchbox for the Two-Hole

Somewhere along the line, we got it in our head that the two-hole hitter for the Jays (and in general) should be a left-handed hitter. Maybe we were half-joking initially about this, but it's become a bit of a truism lately.

It's probably a remnant of some of the old-timey axiomatic knowledge that we still carry around, but the notion of having a speedy leadoff hitter with a left-handed batter to hit behind him and take advantage of the hole between second and first has stuck with us. It could be because it still works in video games.

Also, the metrics around lineup construction go over our head, though we suspect that they are all bunk anyhow.¹

Still, quick look back through all of the Jays' successful teams of the past, and you'll invariably find a lefty or a switch hitter hitting second. Rance, Tony, Robbie, Mookie Wilson...Every time the Jays have gotten good, there's been a lefty in that slot.²

As such, we've found ourselves only half-kiddingly proposing Travis Snider as the team's number two hitter for the coming season, rather than the more likely choice of Yunel Escobar.

The thought process, we have to admit, is a bit sketchy. Snider's a lefty (check!), and looks better to us handling the bat, as even Yunel's successful swings appear as though he's hurled himself off-balance into some positive happenstance. We have visions (in part based on a couple of the screaming hot singles we've had the chance to see Travis hit this Spring) of Snider cranking out hit after hit through the right side of the infield, with Rajai Davis scampering around the third on the play.

Of course, the only fly in the ointment is the fact of...well, the facts. For whatever it looks like to our untrained eyes, Yunel has posted a much higher contact rate (85.7 versus 72.8% for Snider), swings less often at pitches outside the zone (24.6% versus 32.9%). Snider is also more of a hacker than Escobar, going after 51.9% of pitches sent his way (versus 44.6% for Yunel.)

Mind you, Snider's numbers in almost all of those swing discipline numbers are showing progress, so we'd like to think that a full season of regular use would help to prove us right, even if we kinda look wrong right now.³

One final thought: Though these Fox Sports hit charts (Yunel at home, Snider at home) are somewhat less than optimal, what we notice are a lot of ground ball outs made to the right side of the infield by Snider. Were he to hit second and a runner in front of him pressing the defense, might there be an opportunity to turn more of those outs into hits?

Sources: Fangraphs for swing discipline and contact stats, Baseball Reference for batting orders and historical information, Fox Sports for spray charts.

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Notes! Fun!

1. Our suspicion over these sorts analyses emanates from the fact that many of the examples we've seen are tested in the lab - computer simulations - rather than in the field - er, the field of play - and there are a multitude of variables that we think the simulations miss. Which is why the simulations continually spit out results that make it appear as though you could reorder your lineup by drawing out of a hat each day and over the length of the season (And more cynically, we'd guess that there are some who run these analyses who aren't particularly interested in complicating the equation, lest it complicate the solution, which they've already stated is dead simple.)

2. The Mookie Wilson example is particularly germane. In 1989, Jimy Williams began the year hitting right-handed Kelly Gruber second in the order. While Gruber did fine (.380/.426/.806, 3 HRs and 18 RBI in 28 games), the offense sputtered (4.13 runs per game) en route to a 12-24 start and Williams' dismissal.

On Cito Gaston's first day as manager on May 15th, he swapped Tony Fernandez and Gruber's spots in the order versus Cleveland starter (I swear I'm not making this up) John Farrell. He'd keep Fernandez in that spot until August, when the Jays would add the veteran Wilson, who hit second for most of the remainder of the season. Post-Jimy, the Jays put up 4.64 runs per game over the remainder of the season, and went 77-49, winning the AL East.

3. And if you know of an argument that says that contact rates are irrelevant markers of success in the two-hole, we'd be happy to hear it!

Thoughts on moving pictures

It's a hell of a concept, these motion pictures. Watching a game of baseball on the TV, and suddenly, you're filled with whims and notions and some things that might even approach the territory where they could be called "ideas". Amazing.

As such, a few of those things that popped up following this weekend's game.

Brett Lawrie is Brad Fullmer: Okay, we'll say not really, if only to head of the heaps of scorn that we'd get in the comments for such a remark.

Nevertheless, Lawrie's big, broad upper-body, his batting stance (deep crouch, hands high and bat active), and even his angular features bring to mind the Jays' former DH. And while some would write off Fullmer's performance because of the brevity of his career and his time in Toronto, his 2000 season (32 HRs, 104 RBI, .898 OPS) was amongst the best ever single seasons in the team's history. So don't be giving him no guff.

The chief difference between the two is the glove (though it's probably worth noting that Fullmer might have had the chance to be a passable fielder if he weren't blocked by Carlos Delgado.) Lawrie has looked very much up to the task thus far at third, with good hands and a very strong and accurate arm. We could even envision him being discussed as a Gold Glove candidate at some point down the road. (For whatever that's worth.)

And before we ignite another Lawrie controversy: We still think he should start the season in Las Vegas. The Jays have other outfield options, so there is not the great necessity of moving JoBau to right and bringing Lawrie up immediately to play third. Let Lawrie go get his reps in at AAA, and see a lot more balls at third, and if sometime later this season the Jays feel incapable of keeping him down, then call him up.

Talking OPS: It's probably a sign of how slow the older media are to change when the notion of OPS on a broadcast becomes a novelty. But yesterday, Sportsnet posted the AL leaders in OPS last year to underscore José Bautista's 2010 excellence. And while Pat Tabler was extolling its virtue as a stat that better elucidates a player's worth (which it does! Yay Tabby!), he started tiptoeing dangerously close to some strange "walks clog bases" notions in his discussion.

Baby steps, to be sure. Though we noticed that the stat line in the Sportsnet broadcast later in the game included 2010 OPS numbers, which is a splendid addition to the production mix.

JoBau Bombs: Yes, the Rays very astutely tossed a bunch of random cannon fodder (best selling authors included) out against their divisional rivals, so it's hard to gauge that much from the shit-kicking that the offense laid on those marginal arms. But the swing that José Bautista put on Cory Wade's pitch was a thing of beauty.

And while Wade isn't exactly the Rolaids Relief Award frontrunner (and did you know they still hand that award out?), JoBau's ability to identify the pitch and time his step into it makes us feel much better about the prospects of another productive season.

2010 was no fluke. Go tell that.

Pitch session: We were impressed with each of the initial three pitchers, as Brandon Morrow looked as though he is ramping up, Marc Rzepczynski looked like a major league pitcher, and Carlos Villaneuva looked good enough to get relief innings (though wild enough not to get high leverage innings.)

As for Casey Janssen: He looks like such an unbridled ball of anxiety every time he's on the mound. We still love the look of his delivery, and his performance last year probably merits him a spot in this year's bullpen. But with the heap of humanity available to pitch in relief this year for the Jays, that spot is for Casey is no given.

Infuriatingly Yunel: We're in for a long season with young Mr. Escobar. Early in the game, he rushed a throw and hurled a ball into the camera bay even though he had more than enough time. On the other hand, he hit the ball hard yesterday, and drove in runs. Even still: That swing of his looks like an off-balance lurch towards the pitch, which makes us worry about how repeatable those successes might be.

And even with all the negatives, we're vaguely optimistic about Yunel's 2011. Which is why we'll inevitably end up pulling our hair out by season's end. Should be fun.

List-o-Mania - Five Guys Who Give Us Worry

Hey! It's a new recurring series of posts!¹

Why? We've probably gone to the genius well once too often around here², and would prefer to indulge in some hacky, almost-writes-itself filler to make us feel like we've done our blogging job and that we've kept you distracted by baseball fun for an extra three-to-five minutes of your day. You're welcome.³

Besides, people love lists, and love to comment on them (YOU FORGOT THE MOST IMPORTANT THING/GUY/STUFF! IDIOT!). And we are, above all, a comment whore.⁴

On with this week's exciting episode: Five Guys Who Give Us Worry...or The Proactive Analysis of Potential 2011 Whipping Boys.

1. Yunel Escobar: We know that there's some notion amongst us Jays fans that there was a magical healing power that washed over the Cuban shortstop once he left those bad guys behind in Atlanta. Look at that behind the back flip! Look, he hits homers! Drag bunts! But take a step back, and you see Escobar posting a sub-.700 OPS in his time with the Jays, with his numbers sliding backwards month-over-month.

2. Brandon Morrow: If only because we've started to recognize that we're starting to take it as an article of faith that he'll be a Cy Young contender this season, and we're not even sure if he can pitch more than 175 innings. Also, we worry about his diabetes. Which is kinda weak and vaguely offensive, but still. Pitching as a starter takes a lot out of a body, and we worry about the ongoing impact through the hot months.

3. Travis Snider: We keep seeing flashes of that nascent premium-level talent. But it keeps getting run off the rails by tweaky injuries. And this rib thing? Yikes. We keep seeing this year play out for Snider like one of Jeff Bagwell's late-career, injury-addled seasons.

4. Adam Lind: We worry about Lind on both the offensive side as well as in the field. While we have a suspicion that you'll see a return to form at the plate (perhaps even fueled by the happy vibes of playing first base), the helpless flailing that we saw from him against lefties last year occasionally gives us knots in our gullet. And as for the first base experiment: We figure he'll be okay, but we can see some spectacular eff-ups, which we hope won't pile up.

5. Kyle Drabek: The jump from Double-A to the fourth spot in the rotation isn't that small of a leap. Drabek pitched well enough in his brief September callup, but can he give the Jays 180 quality innings? Can he withstand nights in New York and Boston, where the umpires will offer him a postage stamp sized strike zones into which he can pitch? Is there enough movement on that fastball?

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1. Which likely means this is the last time that we do this.

2. ...or not.

3. Condescending much? I really need to check myself...

4. Seriously. We crave your approval.

Who backs up the backups? The soft middle of the Jays' infield

Here's what's been making us shift uncomfortably in our shoes these days: With all the talk of who plays third and where do we fit all the big-hit-no-field corner types into the lineup, we'd barely noticed how thin the Jays are in the middle infield.

Sure, they have Aaron Hill and Yunel Escobar stationed at second and short to start the season, and that combo has the potential to be amongst the best in the Majors. (Avert your eyes from their 2010 numbers, and that statement seems a lot more true.)

(And permit us a quick diversion here: Is it just us, or was the body language between Yunel and Hill really crappy last year. When Escobar would take the ball to the bag himself, you could see the wind being taken out of Hill's sails. That's not going to work over a full 162-game season.)

Both Hill and Escobar have had spotty health records, either missing games or playing at a decreased level because they were hurt for parts of recent seasons. So it's not unreasonable to picture one or both of them nursing injuries or sitting out for weeks on end in 2010.

And who do the Jays have to step in and take over? On the active roster, you'd be looking at John McDonald as the first man off the bench, while the next options on the 40-man roster are Mike McCoy and Adeiny Hechavarria. And that's pretty much that.

We all love Johnny Mac, and if we had to see him play everyday for a week or two, we'd be fine with it. But for a month? Or the bulk of the season? That's a scenario that starts to chip away pretty quickly at our enthusiasm for 85 wins or more in the coming year.

McCoy, superduperplucky as he might be, looked as though he had no real business being on a big league roster in his 46 games with the Jays last year. (.511 OPS in 86 ABs). And Hechavarria would seem to require at least a year of having rough edges sanded and polished before he's ready for a full-time job in Toronto. So neither of them appear to be serious options for 2011. (At least not to us.)

Offseason acquisition and SuperStudCanadianDude Brett Lawrie has stated publicly that he's ready, willing and able to rock and roll all year-long at the MLB level, though his allegedly dodgy defense would not be suitable at short. Moreover, we're not sure that we share his sentiment on his preparedness for the big time. There's a possibility that second could be patrolled by Rule 5 draftee Brad Emaus if he were to be returned to the Jays from the Mets at some point this year. But again, not a shortstop.

Among some of the players who are out of options and may be available between now and April, there is Texas utility infielder Andres Blanco (.679 OPS, meh), perpetual Dodgers prospect Chin-lung Hu (.777 OPS in the PCL last year...he's been a longtime crush of ours, but at age 26, we're starting to give up on him), and Angel Sanchez (.664 OPS after being traded to the Astros for Kevin Cash.)

Which brings us back full circle, to John McDonald. Given the dearth of 2011-ready talent available, we're likely left praying for good health amongst the current starting keystone tandem, or relying on the the PMoD as an everyday player.

We'll leave it to you to judge how comfortable you feel about the notion.

Room for more

Chances are you've read articles and/or blog posts here there and everywhere concerning just who the key bounceback candidates are should the Jays expect to build - tangibly - upon the unexpected success of 2010.

Aaron Hill and Adam Lind - step right up. Or perhaps you feel it's the younger players - Travis Snider and JP Arencibia come to mind - that need to solidify their status as everyday players, or - fingers crossed - emerging stars.

We've also spilled gobs of digital ink discussing the rotation, which must "step up" now even more than before with the departure of "veteran" Shaun Marcum. Yes, Ricky Romero, Brandon Morrow, Brett Cecil, Kyle Drabek, and (insert #5 starter here) must indeed pitch like men for the club to emerge as legitimate contenders in the near future.

But one name is oft overlooked this offseason, and Yunel Escobar has as much potential to take his game - and the fortunes of the Blue Jays - to the next level as any player on the roster. While many fans were left wow-ed by Escobar's hot start and Fernandez-esque defensive wizardry (what?), the truth is that Escobar's overall contribution last season was.....underwhelming.

Ignoring his miserable pre-trade numbers - let's chalk it up to the Atlanta Braves culture of blatant racism (I kid! Kind of!) - Joo-nel still only managed a sub-.700 OPS with the Jays. I know, right? Take away the flair at short and the shared man-bro dugout handshakehugs with Jose Bautista, and that's what we were left with.

But there has to be more in him, doesn't there? There has to be. Twenty-eight years of age (and it seems like a legit 28, not a Cuban 28) seems far too young to be beginning the decline phase of his career. And despite notions of being a bad-body shortstop not prone to aging well, Escobar displays obvious athleticism and is no slug (yet).

In Escobar, the Jays have a shortstop who has drawn MVP votes in the very recent past. Should we expect a similar plateau going forward? No, probably not, unless we want to be completely unreasonable. But what is reasonable is a return to an .800 level OPS with Gold Glove calibre defense (if Ozzie Jeter and his magic glove will ever relinquish the crown) (that's sarcasm).

Plug that into the Jays 2011 everyday lineup and call it an "offseason" win. I'll take that every time.

(But can we please have Manny too? C'mon....)

Friday Tweet Bag! Your tweeted questions answered blogically

Because we like for you to do the thinking, and because we are auditioning to take over Griff Mail Bag (should we get the call from One Yonge Street), here's some pithy answers to to your questions delivered via Twitter. Tweet Bag!

The Tweet Bag's biggest fan, @PdcD asks: Any predictions or pre-indicators of what a full season of Yunel Escobar as the Jays SS may produce in 2011?

We know that by now, you've all figured out that we're a worrier and that we fret about everything with this team. But Yunel is one of the pieces that concerns us most headed into next year.

While his behind the back glove flips and drag bunts were enough to keep us all excited through the last half of last season, his trend line after arriving in Toronto led gradually downwards. His OPS from July 16th (his first game with the Jays) through August 16th was a respectable .784, with three homers and 10 RBI. The next month (August 17th to September 17th) saw him put up a .748 OPS with one homer and six batted in.

By the time that the last two weeks of the season (September 18th to October 2nd) were finished, Escobar fell off a cliff, posting a .397 OPS, eking out just six singles in his final 54 plate appearances.

The Bill James predictor figures him for a .748 OPS over a full season next year, but with a solid .366 OBP. Which sounds about right to us. We think it's possible for him to be productive out of the number two spot in the lineup, even if he's not crushing the ball. But we have a sneaking suspicion that the more the fans in Toronto see him, the more that they will begin picking away at some of the perceived flaws in their "flashy" shortstop.

NEXT! @a_rebolledo asks: Spose the Jays make minimal changes. Rajai in LF, JBau 3B, JP at C. Say even Lyle comes back at 1B. Are they better next yr?

The way you frame the question, we'd say: "Nope".

We're not convinced that JPA has a Rookie of the Year campaign (though we're open to that eventuality, of course). We don't think that JoBau puts up the outrageous offensive numbers that he did last year (and really, how could he?) Rajai? Well, we like him as a fourth outfielder, and we wouldn't be averse to seeing him get lots of PT. But is he an upgrade? Not really. And Lyle would be welcome back in our mind, because he was sneakily productive (so sneaky, that the advanced metrics don't even notice!), and we love his glove.

Does that mean that we don't think the Jays will improve on last year's showing? Not at all. But you're looking too much towards the offense, and not enough towards the state of the pitching staff. The Jays' offensive numbers could go down next year, and they could still man up and compete based upon their pitching staff (particularly the starters) taking their game to the next level.

Late entry! From our favorite man in Lotus Land, @dlbrows: Is this a make/break year for the plan? No playoffs is fine but can THE plan handle no bounce back from Hill/Lind and...no break out year for Snider? Take the team from the cusp to too much to upgrade?

The short answer is "no". This is not a make or break year for the plan because from what we understand of Alex Antopoulos' direction for the team, the plan isn't about hitting higher peaks, but rather, about raising the level of the plateau.

If this team takes a step backwards this season (80 wins? 76 wins?), and the decline is in part attributable to disappointing years from Hill, Lind and Snider, there is still capacity for the team to make smart acquisitions (like the Yunel trade, in spite of our sour response above), and continue to develop, build and trade from a strong base of prospects.

We've never been a big fan of the "tear it down to build it up" approach, because we actually think that there is a false dichotomy built into that line of thinking. So if 2011 turns out to be something less than stellar, we wouldn't call for the franchise to be stripped down and for the Eternal Building Process to begin anew from a couple of rungs down.

(Plus, we actually don't think that you can tie a team's progress to its win-loss record if you are taking a longer view.)

One more! Punk Rock Icon @DrewGROF asks: Seriously, why would anyone drink a Canadian red wine?

Oh sir. This is an entirely regrettable position you've taken. And while we understand that your South Ontario baco noirs aren't for everyone, to paint all of Canada's vinters with a broad brush of shame is quite unfair.

It's true, however, that those of us in the middle of the country aren't always given the opportunity to get our hands on some of the finest product out of the Okanagan Valley in B.C.. And so maybe Mission Hill's fine products have eluded you in recent times. (And you have yet to come to the realization that John Simes, Mission Hill's winemaker, is a bit of a genius.) But if you have the time and inclination (and a spare $75 to toss around), we'd highly recommend you try a bottle of the 2006 Oculus, a truly outstanding Bordeaux-inspired wine. It's probably the best wine experience that we've ever had.

Also from B.C.: Quails Gate's Pinot Noir, which has a fantastic dark cherry and oak flavour. Also: It gets you drunk.

Finally, a plug for an Ontario wine: Inniskillin can be hit or miss, but their Reserve Series Meritage is great. A nice combination of dark fruit and spiciness. Plus, it's on sale at the Wine Rack this week! (And this post was not paid for in any way. Consider this plug a public service.)

And if none of these recommendations satisfy you, Drew, then I'll keep an eye out for a case of something tasty and suitable for you as I spend the next month in Australia.

Shout outs to June-Yell

It didn't take long for us to get over the loss of Alex Gonzalez. (And who is this Marco Scutaro that you speak of?)

After less than a week on the roster and just three games, we've all pretty much fallen ballcap over ballsack for Yunel Escobar. The combination of the novelty of the new player with a pretty swell series (albeit, against the sad sack Orioles) means that the trade to Escobar has met with almost universal approval by now.

(And for those of you wondering based on the litany of frantic tweets on the subject last week: Yes, we fully approve of the choice of 5 as his jersey number.)

It's early yet, and there is still plenty of time for Blue Jays fans to turn on the young Cuban at the first sign that he's putting in less effort and intensity in running out ground balls, or if a throw to first is unleashed with something less than Ecksteinian zeal. For a town that used to have seemingly endless supplies of love for latin players, Toronto now seems to be overly enamored with the sort of truculent hustle and grit that they can find from any Gord or Dougie down at Christie Pits.

(Cut to: Alex Rios, getting ready to add to his 3.2 WAR so far this season in Chicago: "Really. You don't say.")

There's lots to like from what we've seen so far of Yunel, and we're jazzed that Alex Anthopoulos was able to bring in a long-term asset with such a high ceiling in exchange for ten more weeks of Alex Gonzalez's dream season. Not a bad haul at all.

The pronunciation thing
In the three or four years since we first heard of him, we'd always heard Escobar's name pronounced "Youn-Yell" or "You-Nell". We can't remember what they called him on the TBS broadcasts, but it was certainly something along those lines.

So we were a little taken aback when we first heard Alan Ashby drop a "June-Yell" on the air this weekend. For a second, we thought he was affecting some sort of Esai-Morales-in-Bad-Boys character, until he went on to point out that this was the correct pronunciation of the name.

We're not sure what to make of this, because there is a part of us that wants to point to this as another indication of how the kids waydownsouth in Atlanta never even tried to get this guy. On the other hand, we worry that we're doing that thing of wanting to be way too authentic, rolling our R's and turning Z's into TH's and what not when we end up looking like someone's drunk aunt singing along to the Gypsy Kings. Such a quandry.

Should we just accept the Anglicized version? Do we follow along with the June-Yell crowd? Does it even matter, seeing as how you never hear us speak?

Process over Outcome

The trade is a few days old now and beaten to a bloody pulp by the blogosphere....but dammit - I want a turn! So here it is....

The deal is a win for the Blue Jays. Not because Yunel Escobar appears to be flashy as fuck fielding the ball at short. Not because, discounting this season, he was viewed as an elite bat at the position. Not because he gets on base and not because he flashes power. And the trade is definitely not a win because Alex Anthopoulos has rid the team of any shortcomings in the "old" shortstop's game.

It's a win for the organization because the logic behind the deal trumps the end result - good, bad, or otherwise - and Anthopoulos continues to prove he's unafraid of taking on the risks necessary to execute his plan. Er, I mean, The Plan.

(...and yes, I'm cringing at opening the door to references to the "5-year plan" oft-attributed (but never actually proven) to JP Ricciardi. So just don't, OK?)

Anthopoulos has always - from day 1 on the job - maintained he was much more interested in targeting elite talent over quantity of talent. Those players come with a degree of built-in risk, but it's the only way for the Jays to compete with the wallets of the Yankees and the Red Sox. Flipping a stopgap shortstop solution, no matter how well he's performed, for a cost-controlled player at the same position with a potential to be great is a risk you have to take.

I was one of those guys openly questioning the wisdom behind signing Alex Gonzalez in the preseason. I found it fairly unlikely he'd accumulate any sort of trade value and didn't see the upside contribution over the team's current version of Alex Gonzalez (John McDonald). Yeah, I was wrong there. Shocker! Raise your hand if, on April 1, you thought the Jays might parlay Gonzalez and 2 non-elite (more later) prospects for a potential all-star calibre shortstop. Now put your hand down, you god-damned liar.

Here's what the Jays really gave up:

* A veteran shortstop playing to the absolute peak of his abilities, who very likely was in his final year with the team, and if not, almost certainly in his final productive year with the team. No offense to Gonzalez, who was a total pro and exceeded any and all expectations, but if you think he's capable of carrying this performance through 2011.....well, I don't know what to tell ya'. Other than to say "he isn't". (But I've been wrong before. Have I mentioned that?)

* A left-handed reliever with amazing minor league stats (K machine!) and an even more amazing human interest angle (he's tiny!).....who scouts regularly insist has middle relief upside.

* A scrappy, gritty, speedy little Reed Johnson of the infield, who might have a decent career as a major league utility player.

All of the above are worthy assets. But all of the above would fall under the label of quantity. Quantity can be accumulated. Quality is more difficult to come by. And if Gonzalez maintains his pace and leads the Braves to the playoffs - a hearty pat on the back to him, because that just was not going to happen with the Jays. If Collins exceeds expectations and thrives in the late innings, and Pastornicky develops into an everyday sparkplug of a player? The cost of doing business.

One last question I've been kicking around in my head, admittedly almost immediately on hearing the announcement - what of Adeiny Hechavarria? I'll tell you what of Adeiny Hechavarria. It's fantastic for the development of Adeiny Hechavarria. Let's say you're a big bonus Cuban shortstop flailing away in the minor leagues, but looking at a depth chart with names like Alex Gonzalez and Mike McCoy ahead of you. Neither of whom the organization has any real investment in.

Now let's say you're the same Cuban shortstop who sees another Cuban shortstop ahead of you on that depth chart, out to prove he is indeed the elite major league player he was on the verge of becoming. Under which scenario do you think a player would push to get the most out of his talents?

Smart guy, that Anthopoulos.

New Toys!!!

Okay: So we had to give up Alex Gonzalez, who we've grown to love, and Tiny Tim Collins, who was a mountain of a main in a little tiny package. (And Tyler Pastoral Hickeys or something or other.)

But, dudes: Yunel Escobar? For reals? Is it Christmas already?

Okay, this isn't like getting the Six Million Dollar Man action figure, like we did when we were a wee lad. Because the only equivalent to that would be getting Hanley and Josh Johnson, or something equally awesome.

(Three words: Bionic motherfucking grip. Awesome.)

No, this is more along the lines of the Jan and Dean record that you got, which you kinda thought was cool in the moment ("Hey, look! I gots a record!") and which would give you hours of enjoyment through the next few years as your nascent love of surf music would begin to emerge.


Okay. Maybe it's nothing like either of those things. But it is kinda exciting to tear off the wrapping paper and see something new and shiny to play with and write about over the next few seasons.

There's probably not a ton of analysis that we can add to the mix at this point, given that pretty much everyone in our hemisphere has already tossed the "Sold high on Gonzalez / Bought low on Yunel" meme out there. We do have some concern that Escobar is really just this year's edition of Wilson Betemit, a super-hyped Braves prospect who quickly will fades into obscurity as a bench player somewhere else in the next few years.

Nevertheless. As the host of MLB.com's Fantasy 411 Cory Schwartz is fond of saying: Don't confuse the outcome with the decision. This is a smart move for the Jays to attempt to get a younger, more controllable player in exchange for a player who may well have already maxed out his value to the team (plus a couple of players who profile as marginal major leaguers at this point). Before the season, we would have gladly taken a 17 homer season and plus-defense from Alex Gonzalez. We've already received that. Now, let's see if Yunel's offensive mojo can somehow be brought back to life by the healing hands of Dwayne Murphy and The Manager.