Monday, November 23, 2009

Roy Halladay is going everywhere and nowhere

It's a hell of a thing, waiting for the other shoe to drop. It's been more than four months since we committed ourselves to "let go lightly" of Roy Halladay, and yet, he's still here, and we're still waiting to move on.

Somewhere, in the dark recesses in the back of our mind, we've actually started to resent Halladay. Maybe that resentment is misdirected, but it is there, and we can't help wanting to toss him - the greatest pitcher in the history of the franchise - overboard so that we can lighten our load and start moving things into something resembling a direction.

Oddly, it is precisely because Halladay is such an exceptional talent that moving him is going to be a significant challenge for the new Anthopoulosian regime. For the new GM, it's not simply a matter of figuring out who wants Halladay, because that would basically be all 30 teams.

In spite of the daily dozen rumours that have Halladay headed hither and yon, it doesn't take long to figure out why he's not headed anywhere anytime soon. If you start to work out the Venn diagram of who could be in the race for Halladay, you have to start by assessing who has money, who has money that is available, who has aspirations of competing now and who has aspirations for competing in the longer term. By the time that you intersect those four circles, you're pretty much left with two teams, and we probably don't need to remind you who they are.

The point - which we made much more succinctly in a Twitter post this weekend - is that even if everyone wants him, not many teams are going to have the resources to get him and hold on to him, and not many are going to be willing to part with much more than a nominal package in return.

Think of teams that should be in the mix like the Mets (might have money, don't have trade chips, might not be competitive), the Cubs (uncertain money), the Dodgers (money is an issue for the divorce courts), or the Cardinals (probably not enough money to keep Halladay). The Angels (without John Lackey) could be a destination, but will they have the resources to continue to compete over the next five years? Would Halladay allow such a trade to take place, given that he still holds the hammer of a no-trade clause?

There's an expectation amongst the fanbase and the media that the Jays' side of the Roy Halladay Trade should be generous and should replenish all of the franchise's needs. But taking a look at what real possibilities lie out there, we should probably brace ourselves for a move that will return less than we'd hoped, and send Doc somewhere that we wish he weren't.

36 comments:

Tony said...

Damn fine post.

Charles Thompson said...

"I am une chien Anthopoulosia!"

Darren Priest said...

The Yankees can have him for a song if they will just take Vernon Wells with him. As long as that song is performed by Jay-Z and Alicia Keys at the season ticket holders' BBQ.

How about that for a deal?

Mattt said...

The Yankees can have him if they take Vernon. No song needed...

Tao of Stieb said...

@Charles Thompson

Not to correct your accordance, but it is "un chien", not "une".

Tao of Stieb said...

But it was a pretty clever reference, nonetheless.

eyebleaf said...

Tao, how you remain on blogging fire into the off-season boggles the mind. Well done. I think I understand your Halladay resentment. I think I started going through a mild case of it back when all the rumours were hitting the fan over the summer.

And Priesty, that comment was fucking gold. Some serious LOL-age.

Anonymous said...

Those dang genders...

Anonymous said...

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/10416132/Blue-Jays-bring-in-more-scouts-to-help-fill-roster

Gil Fisher said...

Nice to see Tom Tango on board.

Darren Priest said...

Interesting to read some Dodgers media and fans thoughts on Halladay. I knew Frank McCourt was getting divorced but I guess I didn't realize the extent of the shitstorm.

Helluva thing, indeed.

The Ack said...

No way AA should try and include Vernon in any deal. I'd much rather get back talent for one of the game's top players than saddle up an otherwise immovable contract for a net return of....nothing. That would break my heart.

VW's contract is what it is, and no amount of hand-wringing is going to change that.

But that's just me.

Peter D said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Peter D said...

I'm starting to think that the Billingsly offer may be the best that the Jays receive.

I personally have no resentment towards Halladay, the resentment I feel is towards the organization that failed to have the forsight to see that this was coming. They knew that this past season would be a wasted year, and what did they expect Halladay would do. Really, the time to deal him was last offseason. Hopefully they can still make a good deal, but the longer it goes, the greater my doubts that it will happen.

Dane lorg said...

If you can get Billingsley, D. Gordon & another good piece or two, than I think that's pretty good.

Amazing to read that LA Times article + some of the responses. Every time I read fan feedback I can't help but wonder if people have ever watched Halladay & have any fucking clue what he brings to a team.

The writer attempts to make his case based on quality starts but doesn't touch on the quality of opposition faced. Put Billingsley in the AL East & let him face the Red Sox, Yanks & Rays. See if he fairs as well as Roy. I have serious doubts.

The Ack said...

Here's the thing with Doc that your average Dodger fan can't possibly know:

Now, obviously he won't win 32 games, but when Halladay takes the mound, you know your team is going to win. And even in a season of misery, you know you'll have at least 32 games of joy.

Goddamnit, I miss him already.

eyebleaf said...

Stay strong, Ack. Shaun Marcum's about to win the Cy Young.

Building!!!!1

Anonymous said...

Fantastic read. My one issue is with the last paragraph, while very pretty sounding I have to disagree with.If we aren't going to get mush for Halladay, the priority has to be to get him locked up and out of the AL. No way can I see under an circumstance AA letting him go to the Yanks, Red Sox, or any other AL team for that matter without getting a good haul back. Seems like the Yanks are getting content with a Hughes/Montero package,and that's a pretty awesome deal IMO as both guys are future studs...

REAN said...

Thanks for articulating my own closeted resentment towards Doc. I understand that it's completely unfounded, but we're human.

Doc to the Yanks - regardless of the haul - will surely force my closeted resentment into a full-blown hatred. I realize that this too is completely unfounded, but watching him high-five A-Rod & AJ as the Yanks roll through the next half-decade with 100-win seasons.... Sheesh! I don't even want to think about it.

@Charles Thompson - That is one high-browed and appropriate reference.
Think of the opening shot - the eye being sliced by the razor blade - that's how I would feel about watching Doc as a Yank.

Charles Thompson said...

@REAN: And where will the Jays dwell for the next few years? Debasement, debasement...

Tao of Stieb said...

I wonder about the expressed willingness to deal with the Yanks and Sox, and whether if that isn't a bit of a ruse to push the value of Halladay upwards.

If it helps to shake loose an extra prospect here or there, then I'm all for it. I think.

As much as I wish that the Halladay deal were done right now, I'm sure he's wishing the same thing himself.

eyebleaf said...

It's going to be one ridiculous distraction if he's still a Blue Jay come spring training. Exactly what AA needs in his first training camp as the man.

Grock said...

Excellent post. Although, I have to say one thing, I don't think I can be mad at Doc. I have seen too many great games of his in a Jays uniform to be truly mad at him.

Unless of course he puts on Yankee stripes. Then I will hate him, simply because he is one of them.

Torgen said...

It didn't take Beeston long to turn this into an organization Halladay didn't want to be part of, and all he had to do was nothing.

Gil Fisher said...

A propos of nothing in particular, but at some point, the Beest really has to shut his trap.

[I'm not sure I a propos'd appropriately.]

As for Doc, AA should let teams know he will be trading Doc by the beginning of the first day of the winter meetings. Partly because he has to get on with building his team and needs to know where to go next. But mostly because I'm impatient.

REAN said...

I'm expecting it to happen during or shortly after the winter meetings.

Mylegacy said...

The "Real" piss-off with Roy being traded is that the team really can't fill SS or C UNTIL they KNOW who the f*ck they'll be getting back for Roy. The uncertainty throws a wrench into EVERY OTHER move we might want to make.

Torgen said...

If we do trade Halladay, we want a bunch of guys with under a year of service time so we can have them all together for as long as possible. That pretty much means our filling the SS and C holes is independent of the return we get for Halladay.

bkblades said...

On the plus side, if Halladay manages to find himself as a Yankee, well, at least we know he'll be a guaranteed Cy Young, MVP, Hall of Fame candidate every single day.

Peter D said...

I don't want the Jays to focus a Roy Halladay deal around filling the SS and C positions. They should just try to get the best players possible, regardless of position. If that happens to be a SS or Catcher, great.

plain_g said...

who would you want from the angels?
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/11/angels-resume-pursuit-of-roy-halladay.html
can howie kendrick play short? Howie, Jered Weaver, Brandon Wood?

Tao of Stieb said...

I love Howie Kendrick in spite of myself. Think he'll be a steady .340/.470/.800 guy in the years to come.

But that dude can't play short. Can barely play 2nd. It's 2nd or 1st, or maybe LF.

Wood intrigues me...but so did Dallas MacPherson years ago. So there is that.

Torgen said...

Peter D, I disagree. Draft the best player, but trade for organizational need.

The Ack said...

If Doc goes to the Angels, and the centerpiece is Joe Saunders, I'll....well, I don't know what I'll do. But it won't be good for my mental health.

Peter D said...

Torgen, why do you disagree? I feel that since this organization will not compete in 2010 (and probably not in 2011), what is the point of trying to fill positional needs? It is better to get the best players you can and let the pieces fall where they may. Then when you are close to becoming competitive, you have more valuable pieces to play with to try and get the positions of need. Trying to figure out what pieces you will need in 2012 is an exercise in futility.

Torgen said...

The holes you're going to have in your AA team in 2010 are the holes you're going to have in your AAA team in 2011 are the holes you're going to have in your ML team in 2012.