Monday, August 9, 2010

A storybook weekend

We'll confess to be a little overly obsessed with "the narrative": The ongoing story of the Blue Jays, which is written page by chapter by volume as every game, series, and season goes by.

The narrative, of course, is really only clear in retrospect, and a large part of what we spend our days doing around this blog is an attempt to anticipate or divine what the moment we're immersed in presently is going to mean for us a week or a month or a year onwards. Is this a turning point? Is this the moment we recall where the team's fortunes changed? Is it merely a spectacular moment, or is it something more?

We're not so bold as to assume that we know what this past weekend - and indeed, the entire week of series wins against the Yankees and Rays - really will mean in the grander context, years down the road. Maybe it doesn't need to mean anything at all, and we should all just savour the moment.

But how can you try to be measured and rational after performances like those? We can't remember the last time that we were so giddy from watching our team. From the brilliant Friday start from Brett Cecil, Saturday's otherworldly debut from J.P. Arencibia and Brandon Morrow's nearly perfect Sunday, it felt really great to be a Blue Jays fan this weekend.

You should celebrate the other J.P., too
In the midst of Arencibia's brilliant Saturday, a number of hacks felt the need to make an obvious joke at the expense of the former general manager: "You love this J.P.! You hate that J.P.! Ho ho!"

And yet, as we looked around this weekend, we saw a team whose foundations were laid by J.P. Ricciardi: Arencibia, Snider, Hill, Lind, Cecil, Romero, and Marcum were all drafted by the former GM, while Bautista, Overbay, Downs and Frasor were all acquired by him along the way.

We don't doubt that it was time to move on, and we think that Alex Anthopoulos has done some very smart things which would not have been undertaken by Ricciardi. But as this team starts to turn itself around much more quickly than many imagined, keep in mind that the team and its farm system were left in fairly good stead by the former GM.

Sunday, August 8, 2010

A two-sentence post on...The Toronto Blue Jays

Undoubtedly caught up in the moment (but who cares?), but I haven't felt this good about a Jays team since 1993.

Sort of feels like the future is arriving before our eyes, doesn't it?

I think he'll fit in

I mean, what do you want me to say about the debut of JP Arencibia?

Seriously.

Home run to left on an inside fastball - the first major league pitch tossed in his direction? Sitting back and smashing a double to right on a breaking ball down and away? A second home run to right field on a fastball away? Another measly single mixed in among his 4/5 major league debut?

Seriously.

Unbelievable, right? I kid you not when I tell you that watching the highlights, again, more than 12 hours after Arencibia's debut still leaves me with chills. It was an unforgettable performance for both The Player and the fans, and it's these moments exactly that allow the loyal to dream of better days in the near future.

And why shouldn't we? Arencibia could go 0/5 with 4K's in his next appearance, but why buzzkill just for the sake of it? For now, let's allow hyperbole to rule the day and dream that we've just witnessed a significant piece of tomorrow's puzzle find it's place on the board.

And its about more than just Arencibia - it's about Travis Snider continuing to prove he's ready to be a no-doubter everyday player, verging on stardom. It's about Aaron Hill and Adam Lind finding their forms as the season rolls through summer. It's about Yunel Escobar erasing memories of the never-ending search for a starting shortstop. And how about Eddie Encarnacion forcing his name into discussions and thoughts of "next year"?

With the starting 9, there are still holes to fill and names to pencil in - but not many. In his debut, JP Arencibia did his part to claim one of those spots in ink.

The Jays' young starters pitch like Men
Maybe I'm the only one, but loved this piece by Mike Rutsey on the personalities of the rotation. Then again, I'm a sucker for the cheese. I've made mention in these parts about how it really appears - the young starters in particular with Shaun Marcum as their leader - that this group of Blue Jays enjoys playing together, and maybe - just maaayybe - it shows in the results on the field.

OK, maybe not. But still, how good is this?

"Every time I come in after warming up before I start a game, Shaun (Marcum) comes over and says: 'Are you going to pitch like a man today?'

"Every time the answer is: 'Yes.' And we do the same thing to him. He's the oldest guy on the staff and we can say stuff like that to him."

C'mon, friends....not even a little?

Kyle Drabek is ready to pitch like a Man
He likely only has a few more starts before his innings-limit shuts him down for the year, so I'm going to continue banging the Kyle Drabek drum as a reminder to us all that the core of the rotation is not yet set in stone. Drabek's latest result?

6 IP-2H-0R-1BB-7K

That makes for 1 earned run in his last 3 starts (covering 18 IP), along with 12 baserunners allowed vs 15 Ks. That's significant, in that the right-handed starter sometimes described as "undersized" appears to be getting stronger as the season progresses.

Boo-ya.

A quick word on Jesse Litsch
He's an easy target, that Litsch. Not the most svelte athlete to appear in a Jays uni and not possessing the nastiest of stuff, he's an easy head to call for when better options appear to be on the horizon.

But I, for one, take no pleasure in hearing news of a player forced to undergo surgery and being disabled for 6 months. The career of a major leaguer is short, so effectively wiping out a 1/2 season of time is a massive blow to any player's shelf life.

I know that cutting remarks and cold dismissal of yesterday's flavor often contributes to blogosphere popularity, but I just don't have it in me to be brutal. Here's to hoping that Litsch manages his way back from his latest setback to resume a productive major league career.

Thursday, August 5, 2010

A One-Sentence Post on...Losing yourself in the moment

If you think that we're losing all semblance of reason around the Jays' callup of dreamy prospect J.P. Arencibia, you should know that we have just enough self-awareness to understand the lunacy in which we've chosen to indulge, and yet we've gone ahead and gone there all the same.

Friday Rock Out - The Pixies' "Here Comes Your Man"
Because when it comes to prized prospects: There is a wait so long...you'll never wait so long. Have a great weekend, and say a soggy toast to all our drunken brothers.

Wednesday, August 4, 2010

José Bautista is a Very Dangerous Man (and other new, weird feelings)

As we sat in the ballpark on Friday night, watching José Bautista step to the plate in the fourth inning with the bases loaded, we became acutely aware of a completely new feeling.: That JoBau has become a feared man at that plate for the Jays.

Maybe you can discount this, and maybe you need way more evidence and two more seasons of similar performances before you start to think of him as any sort of premium offensive performer. But for us, there was a palpable feeling in the air that night as Bautista strode from the on deck circle: It was the feeling of anticipation, because our best hitter was standing in for a key situation, and it was a sense that Bautista is the one player in the lineup who the other team does not want to see with men on base.

It's a feeling that we would have a few years ago, when Manny Ramirez or Alex Rodriguez or Albert Pujols or Barry Bonds would step in. Their at bats would simultaneously create expectations and anxiety, and you'd feel a sense of relief when you got through them unscathed.

(Okay: Hold up. Slow down. Take a moment and go with us here. We know that you can't wait to get into the comments, and tear us a new one over the ridiculously overstatement that you see in that paragraph, but we're using it to make a point. We could say: "This must be what it felt like Dante Bichette came to the plate", but we're trying to sketch something out quickly, and don't especially feel like digging to far down to find the precise comparable that is going to suit your needs. Stop being so picky.)

It's odd that this feels so novel, but the truth is that the Jays have not had the Jim Rice Feared Hitter in the middle of their order since Carlos Delgado left six years ago. There have been players who have had good seasons here or there, and we might have wanted to feel as if they were those terror-inducing offensive threats, but they never quite became that thing. But after nearly four months (plus a month last season) of being the most prolific power hitter in the Majors, it certainly feels to us as though Batista has affirmed that deserves to be treated with respect.

And as we were in that moment on Friday night, and wondering whether if any of this notion made a lick of sense, Bautista hammered a Justin Masterson pitch 424 feet into the left field seats, reaffirming every last absurd bit of that line of thinking.

...and other new, weird feelings and modest goals
It was disappointing to see the Jays cough up the last two games of the Cleveland series, especially given that both of them were eminently winnable games. But if it is any consolation, there is something in the manner that the Jays are playing through the last half of their schedule which we can't remember seeing in recent years.

Rationally, we'd have to assume that the Jays are more or less out of contention for the post season, but the Jays doesn't seem to be relenting or slowing down at all in recent weeks. If anything, the roster that they have assembled at this point seems as though it is the strongest team that they've put on the field in years, and that with the bench strength and bullpen depth, they might have enough to actually make a run at contention as soon as next year.

In the interim, we've mentally set a goal for the Jays for the remainder of the season: Fifth in the AL.

Sure, it sounds like not much, but we'd actually get some satisfaction out of seeing the Jays finish the season as the best team not the make the playoffs. It would likely mean catching up with Boston, who sit five games ahead of them in the standings, but with three series still to come against the Sox, that's a manageable number.

It might not seem like much of an aspiration, but legitimately leapfrogging the Red Sox and jumping into that fifth seed is one important step that could precede the next one: a postseason berth.

Tuesday, August 3, 2010

Get Ready for the Future

Coming into this year, the notion of "The Future" for the Jays was a dreadful one.

We say this mostly because the future was some unattainable goal, far down the road and only in some sort of hypothetical world where the Jays budget suddenly increases, and all of the draft picks pan out and the Yanks and Sox decline and the Rays return to the mean and the Orioles continue to suck. Once you start using that many cards to build your house, it's easy to see how it falls apart before you even have it built.

But the past week has been an interesting one for us. Maybe we've dropped our rationalistic guard a bit, or maybe we're just a little more attuned to what's going on inside. Whatever it is, we have to admit to feeling very differently about this team. Much of this new, weird feeling likely comes from the lead up to the non-waiver trade deadline, and what the action (and lack thereof) says about the direction that's being taken, and the current state of the franchise.

As the Jays moved from the spring to the summer months, the conventional wisdom held that the team would eventually stop competing and sell off just about everything that wasn't nailed to the turf. It's the sort of thing that signals to the fans that you've given up, and that you're just trying to make the most of whatever shit sandwich platter you have in front of you. But the moves made through Alex Anthopoulos' inaugural season at the helm have shown exceptional foresight, and an ability to recognize that moving early in some situations and standing pat in others can remove you from the perfunctory urgency brought on by the arbitrary dates on the baseball calendar.

Acquiring Fred Lewis early in the season and Yunel Escobar well ahead of the trade deadline helped set the Jays up to a point where they didn't need to move near the deadline. Moreover, the decision to move Brett Wallace - heartily criticized by yours truly on Twitter in the moments after it was announced - was facilitated by the fact that the Blue Jays have a plethora of corner infield and outfield options that are under control and reasonably priced. Even without Wallace's high ceiling bat (and fat ass) next season, there's a full cupboard for now and next year, and something (in Anthony Gose) for down the road.

As we've been moving the tiles in the slide puzzle around, it amazes us how many premium pieces there are already on the Blue Jays roster, and how little room there will be next year for new faces in new places on the 25 man roster. The Blue Jays could legitimately not pick up a single piece in the offseason, and still assemble a roster that has the potential to win 90 or more games in 2011. J.P. Arencibia and Kyle Drabek may well shift into the big club's plans for next year, as will Brad Mills, Josh Roenicke, and Marc Rzpeczynski.

A new first and/or third baseman may need to be found, although the Jays won't need to shell out in free agency or the trade market to pull in someone, especially when internal options include moving either Aaron Hill or José Bautista to third and possibly Adam Lind to first. Or they can settle for a player who is posting a 106 OPS+ in the coming year. Say what you will: Edwin Encarnacion is not a bad option.

(And to drive home the point, as Wilner has through much of this season: EE's career OPS is 30 points higher than Aaron Hill's. Cover their names, and you'd almost certainly pick EE to be on your roster.)

Through all of this, we're finding something to grasp that isn't a vision of the Jays that we're talking ourselves into. (If you want examples of that particular mindset, may we suggest the 1500 or so posts on this blog.) To us, the future seems less like something tantalizingly out of reach, and more like something that's about to come sharply into focus.

It's truly an exciting time to be a Blue Jays fan.

Monday, August 2, 2010

Who says there's no "#1"?

Long weekend is upon us, and that can mean only one thing - bonus Ack coverage! So, yeah....apologies in advance for that. And if I'm mowin' the Tao's lawn with this additional post, you'll know by my sudden disappearance from the interweb. He's brutal like that, man.

Truth be told, I was happy to rest on my laurels and call it a weekend, until I was spurred on by a comment over at DJF : to paraphrase, Kyle Drabek hasn't lived up to the hype and won't amount to much as a big leaguer. Mix in ongoing commentary in the media & beyond about how the system lacks that true #1, that hammer, that Ace that all contenders have....and boom - inspiration.

So, has Drabek been as good as the advance press clippings indicated he should be? Consider the following statistics:

Wins (yeah, I know...): 11 (1st in AA Eastern League)

ERA: 3.04 (6th)

Innings Pitched: 136.0 (2nd - vs 108 hits allowed)

K's: 103 (3rd, and while well below K/IP, note that not one pitcher in the top-20 exceeds 9 K/9)

WHIP: 1.18 (5th - walks allowed could use some work)

Oh, and there was this line on July 4th: 9 IP, 0H, 0R, 0ER, 2BB, 3K

...and he's still just 22. Far from old for the league he's pitching in. So given those statistics....does that look like disappointment to you? And given the mid-90's fastball, hammer curve, and developing change (it's the Blue Jays - you know it'll get there....), does it not seem like this could be the type of pitcher who can be The Guy? And if it doesn't, I'll ask you to tell yourself the following:

He'll never be Roy Halladay. OK?

Some point to his lack of promotion to AAA Vegas as a sign of disappointment, but if it's me, I never let the kid see one inning pitched in that league. New Hampshire is likely the best place for his development, and it's where he should stay until Jays' brass determine he's ready for his debut.

And about that debut....it is possible the Jays give Drabek a taste of major league life before he reaches his innings limit and is shut down for the season. What better way to prepare for a run at the 2011 rotation than to give the future ace a quick tour of life in the bigs?

Wild conspiracy theories: Latin America
So, I was thinking, as I tend to do only occasionally.....is it possible that Alex Anthopoulos was further inclined to not trade Jose Bautista as part of his master plan to strengthen the Jays' foothold in Latin America?

Yes, I know - take off the tinfoil hat, etc. But think about it: the Jays have been making all kinds of noise about becoming the "preferred destination" for these players - a notion stated publicly by the front office (if not indirectly), and further strengthened by the recent aggressive signings these past few months of 16 year old phenoms along with the acquisition of "misunderstood" SS genius Escobar.

And who was tapped to be Esco's mentor? Jose Bautista. And who would make the perfect figurehead to point towards and say "look at how this player thrived in our organization"? Jose Bautista.

Perhaps there's nothing at all to this rambling, but perhaps the lack of appetite to move The Player has deeper roots than previously thought. And with the way Bautista continues to play for this club....that's a good thing.

Sunday, August 1, 2010

Deadline dud.....or was it?

Well, that was that. MLB's 2010 non-waiver trade deadline has come and gone and I'm still trying to process how I feel about what happened with the Jays.....and I'm quite certain I'm not the only one in this boat. I was conservative with my own expectations, thinking one, maybe two bullpen arms (Downs, Gregg, Frasor) would be on the move, with an outside shot at a position player being dealt (Bautista, Buck, Overbay).

So what happened? Apart from "nothing", I mean. Are the Jays better off having left the roster intact? Or does the lack of movement rate as an opportunity missed? I'm going to be honest with you here, friends. I still don't know.

Deadline Good
I'm still firmly of the belief that Anthopoulos' strategy of targeting high-end, "game-changer" talent is the only way to build towards a long-term competitive club. The new regime will not deal for the sake of dealing, hording fringey prospects in the hope one might beat the odds and develop into a plus-regular at the major league level. And evidently, based on the fact that no deals were made, those were the types of players being offered. Hey Cashman - thanks for the call-back, but it's a top-10 guy or nothin'. Same for you, Theo. No favours for that little Nation of yours.

Opposing clubs are still, apparently, of the belief the Jays should act as a feeder club for the big-boy organizations, and just be happy they're taking portions of contract monies owed off their hands in exchange for warm bodies. By not budging and rolling the dice on expected compensation picks (and backing it up with spending on said draft - see 2010), this new Jays management regime is serving notice that their hands most definitely are not tied, and status quo no longer exists.

And hey - do we even have the right to complain that the team will remain competitive to close out the season by holding onto the major league talent? It's going to be a bad thing to watch Jose Bautista chase the home run title? You want to be stressed out watching Jesse Carlson pitch the 8th instead of Scott Downs? This has been an entertaining club this season, and figures to remain as such for the duration.

Deadline Bad
.....but I can't shake the following feeling: the Jays were motivated sellers, with assets in demand and eminently movable...and nothing got done. I do take comfort in the knowledge that players not traded will, in all likelihood, be rolled into compensation picks, during a draft year which talent evaluators promise has a deep, talented pool of players.

But that's also the catch - those compensatory picks won't produce major league players for two, three, maybe four seasons. That's if they develop into major leaguers at all. Dealing for prospects eliminates some of that doubt, and reduces the wait for expected MLB arrival.

Has the timeline for competitiveness been pushed back? Anthopoulos claims it hasn't, but coupled with the Wallace-Gose trade....it certainly hasn't been advanced. And regarding those comp picks....are we sure about those?

Scott Downs seems fairly certain to decline arbitration (doesn't he?), but, oddly enough, Jason Frasor continuing to pitch well and maintaining his type-A status might be the worst thing that could happen to the organization. Frasor might want to have a little chat with Juan Cruz about that whole arbitration decision. Bit of a pickle for Jays fans with this one. "Pitch well, Sausage King! Whoa whoa whoa! Not that well!"

And what of development? How does JP Arencibia see any meaningful at-bats down the stretch with All-Star John Buck holding it down? Or is he the org's next Brett Wallace? And with Lyle Overbay remaining the everyday first baseman - gotta give the guy a chance to earn another contract, right? - how does Adam Lind get comfortable at the position he's now expected to start at in 2011? Again, these are all difficult questions to answer, since as fans, we should want to see the best players play everyday.....but at what cost?

So?....
I still have confidence that Anthopoulos is building a winner. I know, long-term, he has a vision for the club and will work tirelessly towards building that winner. There's a part of me that thinks just maaaaybe he had a few too many balls in the air today, and they all came crashing down at 4 PM EST. But if the right deals weren't there, they just weren't there.

Seems simple enough, but I still can't quite figure it all out.

Saturday, July 31, 2010

Alex Anthopoulos doesn't care for your prospect rankings

Late to the party as always, but I'd be remiss if I didn't chime in with my own meaningless bullshit concerning the Jays' latest move as the trade deadline approaches. A move I still can't quite pin down in my mind, but more on that later......

But no, this post isn't even about the merits of Gose vs Wallace. It's about Anthopoulos. And I think it's safe to say this:

Alex Anthopoulos doesn't care what Baseball America thinks.

He doesn't care what Keith Law thinks.

And don't take this the wrong way - we're all friends here, yes? - but he especially doesn't give a shit about what you think about the players involved in his deal (even if he's far too polite - how Canadian! - to actually say so).

And right or wrong - no matter how you feel about this trade - there's merit to that. Anthopoulos has placed his flag in the ground and tied his fortunes to the opinions within the massive scouting staff he's assembled. Not to public opinion. Not to twitter feeds. Not to mainstream analysts. To his scouts, and to his own eyes.

Anthopoulos (& his staff) had it bad for Anthony Gose. He is the guy they wanted. So he's the guy they got (writing skills!). And that's the way it should be, shouldn't it? The GM of the team - the man probably most responsible for the club's success or failure - should do things his way with the players he wants.

How I feel is irrelevant. I might feel, for example, that dealing away the player long led to believe was the 2011 everyday first baseman sets the club back. Anthopoulos obviously feels differently. Why? Could be that there's another trade for a 1B in the works. Could be that he sees the club stronger with Mike Jacobs Adam Lind playing everyday in the field. Or it could very well be that given half a season to evaluate Brett Wallace on a daily basis....he realized there wasn't as much there as he previously thought.

Or it could just be that his scout-crush for Anthony Gose was so massive that parting with Wallace was just a painful measure of doing business. Time will tell if it was the right call, but like I'm fond of saying around these parts (apparently)....process over outcome rules the day.

Quickly - Trade Deadline
* If Jon Heyman turns out to be correct (he won't), then process over outcome can kindly fuck off. Light-hitting middle infield non-prospect in exchange for MLB's current home run & beard leader? No.

* A day after blogger The Southpaw and I eerily simultaneously tweet about the possibility of Yonder Alonso becoming the new Brett Wallace.....Jeff Blair chimes in with word the Reds want "in" on Scott Downs. Cue Twilight Zone music....

* How come there is absolutely no buzz surrounding John Buck? If Jose Bautista is "sell high" Exhibit 1A, Buck has to be 1B, no?

* Similarly, no buzz around any of the Jays young starters? Seems like more of an offseason move, I suppose.

* .....and by the time I next post, none of this will be relevant. 4 PM Saturday can't come soon enough!

Thursday, July 29, 2010

Tale of the Tape: Travis Snider hits JACKS!

It's been a while, and maybe you've forgotten, or maybe you've been distracted by all of the love you had for Alex Gonzalez, John Buck and José Bautista. But Travis Snider is back, and he hits the ball awesomely hard.

Drew over at GROF got us revved up for the return by pointing us to some snazzy Hit Tracker ball flight and hit speed and trajectory information. (119.7 mph? Are you kidding me?) Which, in turn, only made us hungry for some moving pictures of The Rosy-Cheeked Phenom smacking jacks hither and yon.

Let's go to the un-embeddable digital videotape!

Dinger #1 - 04/15/10, versus the White Sox: A drive well into the 200's, with a bat flip and a Rolen-esque race around the bases. Distance: 435 ft. Speed: 111.4 mph. BLAMMO!

Dinger #2 - 04/19/10, versus the Royals: The most towering home run of the year for the Jays so far, with an apex of 138 feet. Gave David DeJesus a crick in his neck. Distance: 389 Speed: 103.9 KERRUNCH!

Dinger #3 - 04/29/10, versus Oakland: The second half of back to back jacks. Distance: 424 ft. Speed: 111.0 BABOOOOOM!

Dinger # 4 - 05/03/10, at Cleveland: A frickin' laser beam that nearly eats up a foolish Clevelander's hand. Distance: 373 ft. Speed: 119.7 mph!!!1 WHHHHHHHHHIIIIISHNAP!

Dinger #5 - 05/12/10, at Boston: Taking a Tim Wakefield soft toss and slapping it back into the Massholian masses. Distance: 394 ft. Speed: 106.9 mph. SMACK!

Dinger #6 -
5/14/10, versus Texas: At the conclusion of an epic 11-pitch battle that surely led to two more DL stints for Rich Harden, a long loud shot off the facing above the 200's. Distance: 437 ft. Speed 109.2 mph. KEERRRRANG!

Wednesday, July 28, 2010

Gambling on José Bautista

We're not sure that we qualify as charter members of the Bautista Appreciation Society, but we've looked pretty kindly on him since he was acquired for Robinson Diaz almost two years ago.

Our thought on him at the time was that he was a good player with positional flexibility who could, in a pinch, play every day and provide you with enough offense to get by. He was John McDonald with more pop, or some variation on Marco Scutaro. Certainly, something better than Hector Luna.

At this point, it's hard to even attempt to rationalize what that the Jays have in JoBau, especially after a night of making Orioles pitchers' heads snap back. But considering what the Jays gave up to get him (a guy who is now the backup catcher in Toledo rocking a .592 OPS), the Jays are pretty much playing with the house's money at this point with JoBau.

If they let him stick around and go through the arbitration process and he suddenly turns into a pumpkin (as Keith Law insinuated he would on last night's Prime Time Sports), then the Jays are out some salary, but not much more.

If the Jays were to take Law's advice and move Bautista before the deadline and before what KLaw considers his inevitable downturn, it's possible that the Jays could get a couple of prospects who might be in the Top 10 of someone's system, and who might be amongst the five-of-ten to make it to the bigs, and might be one of the two who stick, and who might be the one who is a productive, everyday player.

Either way, there are an awful lot of "mights" in those equations, aren't there?

Our thought remains that the Jays should let this season and the first half of the next play out, and see what they have in JoBau at that point. He might not need to be this type of monster for the rest of his career with the Jays to have value. If he is a late bloomer who could offer 25 homers, an OPS over .850 and a great outfield arm, then maybe you see this through. If he regresses much further back, then so be it. Maybe the team didn't sell the asset at the top of its value, but really, how many do?

We've been bothered lately with the notion that Bautista fits into a category with past Jays 30+ homer flashes, like Ed Sprague, Tony Batista and Brad Fullmer. But if you keep yourself from overestimating the value of the prospects that you're going to get back for him, maybe you can be comfortable walking away from the table no better or worse then when you sat down.

José Bautista Fact - He's better than Matt Wieters
Going back to Keith Law (because I seem to love to pick apart his arguments these days): He said last year that "Sliced bread is actually the best thing since Matt Wieters."

Well, here's a gentleman's wager for KLaw: We'd be willing to bet that - in spite of the precipitous downturn that is anticipated any moment now because of his age - José Bautista finishes up his career with more home runs than Matt Wieters.

(And what are the chances that we're still blogging when either of those guys finish their career? Cripes...We'll be damn near retired by then!)

Monday, July 26, 2010

A modest proposal: Load up now

It's less than a week away from the non-waiver trade deadline, and things are starting to get a little nutty cuckoo around the baseball blogosphere.

We've made an effort over the handful of years that we've been doing this to not over-exaggerate with the silly trade suggestions, in part because we figure that you could probably make that stuff up for yourself, or find another dozen blogs who will make it up for you. (Or you can read SI's Jon Heyman.) But didn't get to be The World's Most Respected Blue Jays Blog by doing what everyone else does, now did we?

(Note: We're probably not the The World's Most Respected Blue Jays Blog. It's probably some 16 year-old kid on Bleacher Report.)

For a sport whose fans and media generally demonstrate more dynamic thought processes, the trade deadline seems to herd people's opinions on trade possibilities into two simple pens: The Buyers and the Sellers. If you're "out of it", you're selling, and if you're "still in it", you're buying. If you're buying, you're bringing in big league talent, and if you're selling, you're planning for years down the road by taking a flyer on someone else's prospect. That's it, that's all, that's the axiom and you live by it.

With the Jays falling ostensibly into the Seller pen, we have to ask: Why must they move bodies, and why must this be an exercise in looking so far down the road? If other teams who are out of contention are locked into that mindset, why not capitalize on the moment and look to add a piece who will help in 2011?

We give Alex Anthopoulos full marks for already going against the grain in the Yunel Escobar deal, as we think it feeds into a swifter route to contention than the Eternal Building Process. And given the dearth of really interesting free agents in the coming off season, we'd fully advocate for the Jays to consider loading up now on players who could make them a 90+ win team next year as they cast off some players in the last years of their deals.

That doesn't mean holding onto Frasor, Downs, Buck or Overbay, nor does it mean trying to swap those pieces for MLB talent. But if someone is offering a player who still has years left on his contract (like Lance Berkman, Josh Willingham or Matt Capps), we see no reason why you'd fold up your pad folio, turn off your Blackberry and wait until the Winter Meetings to move on those players.

If the deals are out there to be made, why wait?

Friday, July 23, 2010

Travis Snider's productive rage

It occurs to us that it can't be a barrel of laughs right now for Travis Snider, as he follows along the slooooooooooow rehab process to get back to the Jays. At this point, he's strapped on his gear to play 19 minor league games through this get-well assignment, while only getting 33 big league games before the wrist injury.

We don't want to assume that Travis is playing angry now, because we know that the rosy-cheeked phenom has had to work on controlling the inner rage in the past. But in the last three games, Snider has knocked the snot out of the ball as if it had an impression of The Manager's mug on it. Three homers and 11 RBI later, maybe Sniderman is trying to send a message that he's no longer enjoying his return to Manchester.

And really, can you blame him? We're not pissing on Manchester or New Hampshire, because we're sure that it's totally peachy there. But after breezing through Double-A when he was barely through his teens, and making it all the way to the bigs by 20, it's gotta suck to get optioned back there to put in time while the team calls up Mike McCoy's limp noodle of a bat to fill in here or there.

We're sure the Fisher Cats fans are happy to see the returning hero, but if we were Snider, we'd feel like smashing something every day that we were stuck back there.

Friday Rock Out - Angry Young Man Edition
If we were an angry young man (as opposed to a grumpy old dude), we'd probably listen to something like The Offspring's "All I Want" and glare at everyone all day. Try it for yourself!

Have a great weekend. The Ack is away on assignment, and if Mrs. Tao will get off our ass for five minutes this weekend, we'll do an extra special weekend edition for you.

Thursday, July 22, 2010

Deadline: Trade Deadline!

Is it just us, or has the trade deadline speculation just blown right the fuck up in the past 24 hours.

As Blairsy might say: "Geeeeezzusss!"

There we were, feeling all nice and cozy after Alex "Not Beeston's Intern!" Anthopoulos pulled off the commendable swap with the Braves to bring in Yunel Escobar at a bargain basement price. It was like the time that we found a copy of Shattered Glass for $1 at a bargain store. (A loonie? To watch Peter Saarsgard seethe for two hours in a way that no American actor has seethed in two generations? Fuck yes! Please!)

Sorry, lost the train of thought for a second.

The Jays could very well pack up their bags and figure that they've added what could be a very nice, cheap and controllable piece that should be here when they evolve into a dependable 90+ win team. A nice year's work, and we can all be happy.

But at the same time, we feel like Alex is playing with the house's money: He brought in John Buck and Alex Gonzalez as essentially disposable assets. If either of them had flopped, the Jays could have paid them out through the year and walked away with nary another thought. But both turned out better than anyone could have expected, and both might bring back some tangible assets by the end of July.

Moreover, the moves that are being suggested for players like Scott Downs, Lyle Overbay, Jason Frasor, Kevin Gregg and John Buck don't feel like a clearing of the decks from a (excuse the Hillenbrandism) sinking ship. They feel like rational exchanges of sought after resources. This isn't a couple of teams stepping in to take your best player for some magic beans and a low-A ball LOOGY. No matter what the fuck Jon Heyman is on about.

(And speaking of Heyman: Can we just echo Stoeten's line yesterday that he's probably just making shit up, or developing really crappy sources? Because the amount of horseshit that came from his general direction last year through the Halladay mess should be enough to disabuse you of any sense that he's plugged into any real discussions that are going on.)

In pursuit of JoBau
There's seemingly been a lot of tire kicking on José Bautista, and given his stature as the Home Run King of the Major Leagues at this point, it stands to reason.

(Speaking of which: Wouldn't it be awesome if the league leader in home runs got to wear a yellow jersey like they do in the Tour de France, or a golden helmet like they do in the Finnish hockey league. Bautista in a golden helmet would make all the kids happy, and in 15 years when he came back to visit Toronto after concluding his Hall of Fame career, they could give away a JoBau Bobblehead with him wearing the Golden Batting Helmet. Cool.)

We're really of two minds on Bautista at this point. The first thought we have is that he is a very useful and productive piece, and that the Jays have him under control for one more season. And in spite of some notion floated yesterday by Buster Onley that his arbitration number will have eight digits in it, we'd figure that a 40 homer 100 RBI season will still land him less than $7 million, which still fits in the budget.

The other side is that maybe the shiny brilliance that comes along with three months at the top of the home run leaderboard is something on which you've got to capitalize as it is still burning bright, because harvesting the afterglow isn't going to bring you as much back in return.

The trade off, we suppose, is that it seems as though you might have a pretty good shot at two compensatory picks if JoBau can keep this pace up through the balance of this season and most of the next. So whatever you get for him would have to be better than that.

In his chat on MLB Trade Rumo(u)rs yesterday, Tim Dierkes figured that of the Jays' trade targets, Downs, Frasor and Gregg will go before the deadline, while Lylo will go afterwards through waivers and Bautista will stay put. We think that sounds perfectly acceptable to us.

Wait a second...
Did we just buy in to the Eternal Building Process? Damn you, Handsome Tony Viner. Did you use some Inception-style tactics to plant these seeds subconsciously? You are as sagacious and savvy as you are fragrantly pulchritudinous.

Wednesday, July 21, 2010

Johnny Mac enters the Pantheon

When the Jays recently acquired Yunel Escobar, some of the sniping sports media tourists made snide remarks about the revolving door of shortstops that the team has used over the years. To which we thought: What about John McDonald?

(We doubt it really matters if the Jays have had too many different bodies at that position anyhow, but this seems to be an ongoing gripe. People gotta bitch about something, we suppose.)

It hardly seems like he's been with the team this long, but John McDonald first stepped onto the field wearing the Black and Silver of the Blue Jays way back on April 5th, 2005. (A game in which he went 3-for-4 with a double and an RBI, no less.) McDonald's teammates that day included Frank Menechino, Shea Hillenbrand, Eric Hinske and Gustavo Chacin, while Miguel Batista came in to get the save. And the starting third baseman for the Tampa Bay Devil Rays on that day?Alex Gonzalez, the pretty version who patrolled shortstop for the Jays for the better part of seven years. (And the last regular everyday longterm shortstop, for those of you who bemoan the turnover at that position.)

None of this is to say that Johnny Mac has been a key cog in the Jays' roster over the past six seasons. As much as we all love him for his unparalleled excellence with the glove, he's seemingly served as an auxiliary bench coach, mascot or designated pinch runner for the bulk of his time here. And yet, his ability to stick and make himself a better hitter (no, really, he has!) and a useful bench player has led to McDonald actually beginning to take his place in Blue Jays history amongst their all-time leaders in several categories.

McDonald currently sits in 42nd place in games played as a Blue Jay with 449, just five behind Buck Martinez. He's also 50th in at bats (1088) and plate appearances (1183).

McDonald's stick-to-it-iveness has also resulted in his managing to amass 22 stolen bases over the years, leaving him in a tie for 36th on the all time Jays stolen base list, alongside Aaron Hill, Rickey Henderson and Ernie Whitt. (Think about that foursome one more time: Johnny Mac, Hill, Rickey and Ernie. Tearin' up the bases in their own ways.)

Not surprisingly, McDonald ranks sixth all-time amongst Blue Jays in sacrifices with 31, just three behind Tony Fernandez and seven behind Lloyd Moseby. (Alfredo Griffin's 74 sacrifices seem like an unattainable summit, given the changes in the game.)

And while he has made the 897 outs as a Blue Jay (47th all-time, tied with Cliff Johnson), he's also pulled ahead of Nelson Liriano to claim 49th on the all-time singles list with 193.

We don't run through this list of achievements to mock. There's a certain degree of respect that you have to give to a guy who sticks around long enough to get his name on those lists. We're not sure how long Yunel's sore hand is going to keep him out of the lineup, and we're certainly hoping he's back soon. But if Johnny Mac is going to get playing time, we're hoping to see him pile up some numbers so that we'll continue to see him amongst the long list of all-time leaders for years to come.