Keeping Up Appearances, Barely

[Pops head into the blog; looks around nervously yet hopefully]

Oh, good.  You're all still here.  See, I had given assurances to the Tao that, while he was gallavanting across Europe, I would water the plants and bring in the mail around here.  As you might have noticed, I haven't exactly followed through on my end of that bargain.  But they don't put the baseball season on hold for any of us, so instead of further lamenting my aimlessness, let's get to it.

Smoke and mirrors

The Jays continue to bob along at two games over .500 after taking two of three from the struggling Marlins.  The series victory came on the heels of an uglier one-for-three showing in Milwaukee, which itself followed a home sweep of the Phillies.  That's six wins in nine outings, but for the life of me, I can't figure out how -- apart from recognizing that the quality of competition hasn't exactly been tip-top.  Ricky Romero gave up his all-too-usual four or five runs in his two starts.  Joel Carreno and Jesse Chavez were entirely forgettable.  Brett Cecil went as deep into his starts as you could hope for, but he's still not the type to inspire confidence.  I caught some of the radio broadcast* from Cecil's Saturday start, and Alan Ashby** was astutely pointing out that despite the talk about Cecil having improved his command to both sides of the plate and his ability to keep the ball down in the zone, his pitches were up, up, up.  He didn't get punished too badly, and he's still about the best option to eat innings while George Poulis tends to the M*A*S*H unit in the trainer's room, but I remain apprehensive.  In any case, the results are the results, but it's awfully tough to get too enthusiastic about wins when they feel like optical illusions.

(* I mentioned this on Twitter on Friday night, but it bears repeating: I understand if the sports radio station in Ottawa, Team 1200, wants to pre-empt a Jays game occasionally for some local sports action, like a Senators or 67s game.  Lately, though, Jays games have been pre-empted by Euro 2012 games and, on Friday, the scintillating radio that can only be produced by thirty guys in suits reading the names of teenagers into a microphone, coupled with thirty other guys in uglier suits analyzing it.  Thank God for the MLB At Bat app.)

(** Dear God, but Ashby is the best.  When he filled in for Buck Martinez I don't remember enjoying the television broadcast that much since the airwaves were filled with the dulcet tones of Dan Shulman.  I'd like to think Rogers is smart enough to know what kind of talent they've got on their hands with him, and increase his role.)

Hot Stove!  Hot!

The MLB trade market officially heated up with today's trade of Kevin Youkilis and a rumoured $5.5 million in cash from the Red Sox to the White Sox, for Zach Stewart (Jays connection!) and Brett Lillibridge.  Who knows how much we're hearing through the grapevine is true, but the fact that the Jays are still considered potential buyers ought to be encouraging to fans who aren't keen on simply cashing in the chips on the season, trading the pending free agents like Kelly Johnson and Edwin Encarnacion, and seeing what 2013 brings.  My hunch, though, is that if Alex Anthopolous is in the market for a starting pitcher, it may have less to do with staying in the postseason hunt, and more to do with ensuring that pitchers who aren't quite ready to make the leap from AA New Hamsphire (Chad Jenkins and Deck McGuire, for instance) aren't unnecessarily rushed.  I don't mind the idea of looking externally for pitching help, if it actually preserves some of the minor league arms in the system, even if it's at the expense of lesser prospects.

Roster Merry-Go-Round... with no room for Snider

Welcome back, then, Adam Lind and Ben Francisco -- the former from a Vegas exile in which he pretty much smashed the living bejeezus out of everything he saw; the latter from a DL stint and rehab assignment that concluded with speculation he might not see the big league roster when it was over.

Lind first:  the rubber is about to meet the road for the erstwhile Silver Slugger.  The demotion to AAA-ball was, to me, a demonstration that the organization is perfectly willing to cut their losses on Lind if he doesn't show he's more than a AAAA-hitter upon his return.  It's hard to imagine he'll come back and re-assume the cleanup spot in the order, but stranger things have happened.  I suppose you have to root for him.  If he were to OPS something around .800 the rest of the way, it might earn enough goodwill to keep him around into next season.  If not, I suspect this next three months might be Lind's last as a Blue Jay.

As for Francisco:  I can't even.  His presence on the roster has been a mystery to me since the day he was acquired.  Bring me Travis Snider.  Like, yesterday.

Hot corner hot stove - What JoBau's 3B reticence has wrought

So somewhere along the line, José Bautista got it into his head that he would prefer to play in right field. (Don't ask us to come up with the quote. It's been out there so long that we just assume that it's true.)

We get why JoBau might want to take this approach. Ladies love baserunner kills, but throw a guy out from across the diamond, and you elicit barely a yawn. Also, there are far fewer screaming-take-your-dome-clean-off-your-shoulders line drives that come hurtling themselves hungrily at your flesh when you're in the outfield.

Unfortunately, this particular stance isn't necessarily the one that makes the most sense for the Blue Jays. There are plenty of warm bodies that you can stick out in the outfield on any given day, but only so many guys who can hold their own at third. If Bautista would accede happily to life on the infield, sharing jokes and smiles and hip bumps with Yunel, then we could wrap up this discussion and go get ourselves some aging slugging non-fielder (other than Juan Rivera) and toss them in right or left or wherever.

But seeing as how the Jays aren't likely to do anything to upset or turn off Bautista until after they sign off on their longer-term matrimony, it leaves us without an enviable option at third for now.¹

Nature abhors a vacuum, though, so we've spent the past weekend observing the efforts of some to fill the third base void. Here's the options that we've seen, for better or worse.

Kevin Kouzmanoff: KK is probably off the table now that Chone Figgins has precluded any further discussion on getting traded to Oakland. And to think that we'd just started to come around on him, in spite of the fact that he hasn't posted an OPS above .732 in the past three seasons. (He's got home/road splits that look promising, and his defense seems to carry much of the weight of his 2.7/2.7/2.9 fWAR over the past three years.) A long shot to think that AA can get him, though the A's seem determined to replace him.

Eric Chavez: On a minor league deal? Why not? For some of the cushion change in Bob McCown's green room, you sign a guy who was an elite player at one point (admittedly, five years ago) and who might have something in the tank and something to prove. If he's healthy, he could be a low-risk/high-reward pick up. If not...well, what's the down side?

Aaron Hill: You create one hole by filling another, though there may be an argument that you'd be moving Hill in a year anyways to make room for Adeiny Hechavarria. (Unless it's Yunel that moves to third, in which case, you slide the tiles in your slide puzzle the other way around.)

John McDonald: In limited playing time, Johnny Mac managed a .727 OPS last season. Which, we'd point out, is better than Kouzmanoff's OPS in 2010 and 2009. Oddly, though, the PMoD has put up a negative UZR/150 at third over his career (-7.9). But if you're sliding Hill over, you get McDonald's career 18.9 UZR/150 at second over Hill's 4.8.

Edwin Encarnacion: He's still on the roster. He still has a higher career OPS than Aaron Hill. And his UZR/150 last season at 3B was -2.3, which is a vast improvement over seasons past. Playing EE in the field means that the Jays would have more flexibility with their DH spot. We could go on attempting to make the case for Edwin, though we're reasonably sure that all you'll read from this point on would look like "E5 E5 E5 E5E5 E5E5 E5E5 E5E5 E5E5 E5E5 E5E5 E5E5 E5E5 E5E5 E5E5 E5E5 E5".

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1. You have no idea how many different ways we tried to work a marriage analogy into this paragraph. "Put a ring on it" was tossed around. We conjugated the verb "to betroth" for 20 minutes, until we realized that it only connotes getting engaged and not buying the whole cow. "Down the aisle" was used. Rote "no sex after marriage" jokes were tried on for size. We gave up. This is the best we could do.

An irrational argument for Cliff Lee

Okay, so seven years is entirely too long for a pitcher (in spite of how free and easy Cliff Lee's delivery seems to be), and on that level, we shouldn't even go where we're about to go.

And moreover, Lee is an Arkansas boy, and we'd presume that moving to Canada until sometime in 2018 isn't high up on his bucket list. For someone who grew up that far from the 49th parallel, we would imagine that Toronto might just as well be Nome.

But if the much coveted hurler were here before us, we'd offer him this reason to consider looking at a deal to come to the Blue Jays:

You remember that guy who got traded from the Jays to the Phillies? Which precipitated you being moved from the Phillies to the West and then to the South, so that they could make room for their new shiny staff ace...you remember him?

You remember how the day that you got shipped off, how that dude's wife was all like: "Cliff Lee wasn't even supposed to be here...we were supposed to be here all along, so he was just keeping the uniform warm for us until we got here." Ring any bells?

You know how many times that guy brought Toronto to the playoffs? None. And how many big games did he pitch in here? None.

And you know what you can do? You can come to Toronto, take a team that's about the emerge into a contender, take them where That Guy never could, and shove it right up his ass.

Now would that (along with seven years and $155 million) be something that interests you?

The dominoes begin to fall

Personally, we blame the Ack.

There we were, totally ready to settle in for a snoozy offseason, with nothing but marginal moves and the odd pickup of a guy on a short deal for little money. It wasn't going to upset nobody's apple cart.

And then our Weekend Editor (who will - to his surprise - be taking the reins around here for much of the holiday season) goes and starts writing about dominoes and splashy moves and goddamnit! Say goodbye to Shaun Marcum. We halfway considered going into the Ack's post from the weekend and switching out any mentions of "Travis Snider" for "Eric Thames" and "Kyle Drabek" for "Brad Mills", just to see if we could avoid any further stress and strain.

(Yes...in our mind, this offseason is like an episode of the Twilight Zone where whatever The Ack thinks comes true. So be prepared to make the trek westward to see the Winnipeg Blue Jays starting next year. On the plus side, they'll be in the Central Division! Playoffs!!!1)

Okay, enough of the tomfoolery. A few quick thoughts:

The Marcum Trade
There are some who figure that the Marcum trade is just the start of the moves, and that the Zack Greinke acquisition is sure to follow. The longer we had to think about it, the more that we figured that someone might have grabbed their Jump to Conclusions mat and started hoping around like a mad man.

So setting aside what comes next: We'll give our blog bro hug to Marcum later this week, and we're sad to see him go, but he seemed like the most obvious piece to move. He'll be 29 this year, and likely has a few good seasons left in that arm. But the Jays were getting close to a point where they would have to commit to him, and it was better to move him early rather than late.

Also: We were totally wrong about Marcum's delivery, which we use to think was easy and effortless. But now we look at that pronation, and it kinda scares us. So we can live with that being another team's problem.

As for who's coming back: We're all probably a little too invested in Bret Lawrie as Canadian baseball fans. Strip the maple leaf off his chest, and tell us that the Jays just acquired a guy who has been moved from position to position, hit eight homers last season and posted an OPS below .800 at Double-A, and refused to report to the Arizona Fall League, and we probably would have spent most of the day scratching our heads over this. It would have made the Anthony Gose deal seem obvious.

Still, Lawrie is well-regarded by at least a few scouts out there. We hope. And he's only 21. So there's time for him to pull his stuff together.

(Also, one report noted that the Jays may have been after Mat Gamel, which made us wonder who we'd prefer. We'd lean towards Gamel at this point, with the notion that he'd be ready to take over at third immediately. But we're open to being proved wrong.)

BREAKING! Pat Gillick in the Hall of Fame!
This is not unexpected, but is still great news nonetheless. A trifecta of Gillick, Robbie Alomar and Tom Cheek would make for a hell of a Canadian contingest at Cooperstown this year. But again, let's not get ahead of ourselves.

One thought on Gillick, which we've stated here before, but which bears repeating: There was a time where he was in the sights of the Canadian sports media, who tore into him for not doing enough to put the Jays over the top. "Stand Pat" they called, and they were pretty much ready to run him out of town in 1988.

So to the GMs of Toronto franchises, we offer this bit of solace: It gets better.

Fluffy kitties and other pleasant thoughts

Our image consultant told us that we'll need to back off some of the sexism and nerdity, and offer ourselves out to new audiences as a softer, more inclusive and comforting blog.

And thus: Kitties! Look at how fluffy they are!

And now: The pleasantries.

Adam Dunn: Why Not Us?
Fox's Jean-Paul Morossy (I just Frenchified him! Ah! C'est tellement cute!) makes the case that the Jays might make sense as a landing place for Adam Dunn. In spite of whatever defenses we may have made for J.P. Ricciardi's anti-Dunn screed a few years back, we've loved the giant lug of a slugger ever since the first time we saw him step to the on-deck circle as a Louisville Bat back in the day. (Seriously, we were wondering where the fuck his blue ox was, he was so big.)

We'd love to see Dunn in a Jays uni, so long as he's at least willing to consider some at bats as a DH. (Which is no small caveat, we're led to believe.)

Jesse Crain is the Most Canadian Canadian in All of Canadian History of Canada's Canadians
Actually, he was born here by happenstance, and spent the majority of his life in the U.S.. (He's probably never tasted poutine! Or doesn't own a Tragically Hip CD! He has never seen the Air Farce, and he totally doesn't get any of their jokes!) Still, it's seemingly impossible for folks to talk about him and his potential as a potential acquisition without trotting out the fact that he was born in Toronto. Even the aforementioned Morosi can't help himself.

(To be fair, we could hardly hold ourself back from the "pseudo-Canadian" angle when we mentioned Crain as a potential closer for 2011 back in a mid-September Tweet Bag.)

Beyond any passport implications, Crain would make an intriguing acquisition. He pumped up his strikeout rate last year (to 8.21) and dropped his walks (3.57 per nine.) He might have been a touch lucky (his BABIP dropped 35 points to .270, which might have something to do with the new park...?), and there is a bit of concern that some of the success might be attributed to his fly ball rate increasing in the allegedly cavernous Target Field. One would imagine that a 44% fly ball rate might be a bit more of a problem in the Rogers Centre.

One last thought on Crain: You put his numbers up against Jason Frasor's, and the Sausage King pretty much comes out on top across the board. Which only helps to feed into our notion of a "Return of the Sausage King" campaign. (T-shirts, undoubtedly, to be sold at an online retailer near you soon.)

Get Out the Jumpsuit - It's Fat Elvis Time
So Lance Berkman kinda fell off a cliff last year, and will be 35 this season. (If you'd asked us before we looked it up, we would have sworn he was 31. Time flies.)

And we're certainly not interested in adding a fat man to the roster so that we can admire him for his former glories. Still, his .368 OBP is attractive, and his 2.1 WAR last year was better than all other returning Jays except for Bautista and Wells.

We wouldn't give him anything over $3 million on a one-year contract with options, but we wouldn't mind seeing what a healthy and possibly chastened Berkman could do for a year with his career hanging in the balance.

You have to get over John Buck

It's been a bit of a surprise to us how many people we've heard complaining about the Jays' decision to let John Buck take his talents to South Beach. (Of course, we don't generally listen to call in sports talk radio, and this weekend we caught up on a bunch of podcasts of the Jeff Blair Show. Which was a pretty fair immersion into this now foreign territory.)

If there are any of you who are somehow harbouring your crush on John Buck, and having a hard time letting go, let us make three simple points to you.

1. The contract that John Buck got is stupid.
Three years at $6 Million per annum for a catcher who had a pretty good year? There's no way the Jays should have gone anywhere near numbers like that. (We'd have offered two at $3M/year at the most.) If your argument for keeping Buck in any way hinges around the notion of the Jays getting him for less money or fewer years, you have to stop yourself right there and give yourself and "F" in Economics. Also, if the Jays went into next season with John Buck making more money than Hill ($5 M) or Lind ($5.15 M), we'd assume that this was the beginning of a series of sadly-comic self-destructive moves leading to a decade-long demise of the team's fortunes (i.e., The Gord Ash Plan).

2. John Buck is getting old and breaking down.
Buck equaled his career high in games played last year, after a couple of partial seasons due to injuries. But don't forget that the man squats behind the plate, and has spent more than 5600 innings taking foul tips into his body, and getting run over at the plate, and progressively wearing away at his knees. He's a 30 year-old catcher, and while we wish him well, we can't imagine that he gets through three years unscathed, nor does he equal the numbers that he put up last year.

3. John Buck was only kind of an All-Star.
"How do you just let an All-Star just walk?" You let him walk if he was the best of a shallow pool of AL catchers who were available after Victor Martinez became unavailable due to injury. Let's not make it out like he was Mike Piazza in his prime.

It won't be easy

Backed into a corner, I would tell you that I don't foresee Justin Upton, or Colby Rasmus, or Zack Greinke in a Blue Jays uniform next season. Deals involving premium young talent locked up with (mostly) reasonable contracts are the rarest of rare trades. And I say "backed into a corner", because with Anthopoulos & his recent comments concerning being unafraid of taking gambles, you just never know.

But here's the thing - in the unlikely event the Jays do pull off such a deal, I don't foresee myself immediately turning cartwheels in my (yes, my) basement at the acquisition of such game-changing talent. One, because I don't think I've ever actually turned a cartwheel, but two.... there will be game-changing talent going back.

It's fun to salivate over the prospect of Upton or a Rasmus patrolling the outfield for the Jays, but consider that DBacks and Cards fans are dreaming of Snider in the same scenario. Greinke would immediately (arguably?) become the Ace that contending clubs look to acquire, but Royals fans would, in turn, be pinning hopes of better days ahead on the right arm of Kyle Drabek. Because that's what it would take - talent doesn't come cheap. Forget about the prospect of packaging numerous middle of the road prospects for the potential superstar - quantity won't get it done. A potential superstar in return is the only way.

And we get attached to these players, don't we? We all think (hope?) Snider will, sooner rather than later, become the all-fields masher he's shown glimpses of & has always been projected to become. When Drabek became the centrepiece in return for Halladay, we all exclaimed he could never replace Doc, all the while dreaming that one day he would.

By no means am I implying that I hope the Jays stand pat. Anthopoulos undoubtedly has a targeted skill set for his offseason game plan, and will follow his mantra of rolling the dice as the only way to catch the division's big boys.

It just might be a little tough to swallow if he can actually pull it off.

Speedy thoughts on Rajai

The Jays acquisition of Rajai Davis is one of the more confounding moves in Alex Anthopoulos' time as GM.

It's confounding not so much because we don't understand the "why" of the move, because the acquisition of Major League calibre outfield depth was likely to occur with the departures of DeWayne Wise and possibly Fred Lewis. Adding a guy who could be a very serviceable starter if the need arose makes sense.

But what we don't quite understand is what we now have in Davis. We know that he can pile up stolen bases. (And, as Drew pointed out to us last night over a tasty beverage at our Jays Tweeters Algonquin Round Table, he can use that speed to go first-to-third or score from second). But is he really a leadoff hitter? With a .320 OBP? And a walk rate of 4.6%?

Is he a very good fielder, as his 2009 UZR/150 of +10 would attest? Or is he as lousy as the -10.2 that he posted in that same metric just one year later?

If everything plays out right, we could definitely see Rajai as an everyday guy who slides into each of the outfield slots, and posting an OPS near .800 and getting driven in often by the heart of the order.

Mind you, much of this could be moot within the next few weeks if Anthopoulos continues to find serviceable stray ballplayers here or there, or one big deal. So ask us what we think of the move after a couple of weeks. We'll have it all figured out by then.

Going the other way
The Jays let Trystan Magnuson (Canadian!) and Danny Farquhar go in exchange, which doesn't seem like that much to give up. Both showed some promise at Double-A, but they are getting long in the tooth (25 and 23) to be considered prospects, and their progression doesn't suggest guys who are ascending to be valuable bullpen arms in the near term. Not that they are a couple of bums, but we don't see this really impacting on any team other than the Fisher Cats next year.

His name is Dan Uggla...Do we want him?

Not to be THAT GUY (or to sound like him for a few moments), but Dan Uggla is a much better fantasy baseball player than a real baseball player.

(And now, we duck.)

There is little disputing that Uggla is a productive, middle of the order bat who puts up big numbers in a huge ballpark. The thought of him getting 81 games at the Rogers SkyDomey Centre makes our butt cheeks twitch. Would 40 homers be out of the question? Would he and José Bautista become modern day Bash Brothers? Would they push Vernon Wells, Aaron Hill and Adam Lind further down the order where they probably belong in the first place? The sunshiney happy daydreams that we're having right now say: "INDUBITABLY!"

But what concerns us about Uggla is that we're not sure that there's a place on the diamond where you can hide him, and given the number of DHs that the Jays are carrying, that's a bit of a problem.

(There's also that minor case of Aubrey Huff Syndrome that Uggla has, where every second season is a bit of a down year...His is not a full-on breakout of the disease, but his OPS has see-sawed a bit over his short career: .818, .805, .874, .813, .877. Are we ready to give up a quality prospect for one season of .820 OPS?)

The notion floated out there already has him moving to third, as though it is a simple shift to move a mediocre second baseman (-22 career UZR, -4.5 career UZR/150) over to the hot corner. (And Uggla, from our remembrances, has problems with hands and feet as opposed to his arm, which would not look any better at third).

It's probably too early to be voting yay or nay on a deal that has yet to get beyond Buster Onley's BlackBerry. Still, we're hopeful that AA won't give up too much of the future for one potentially good season and two picks.

Rosterbatory ramblings: Bring on the hot stove!

(Recently, we've been apologizing left and right for our prolonged absences, so we won't even bother to bore you with the apologia for our neglect of you, our valued blog readers. Let's just get on with it, and pretend like daddy still lives at home, and doesn't have to drop you off at mom's at 7 PM on Sunday.)

When we last were around to jibber-jabber about the news of the day, it was all about our joy over seeing Los Gigantes tear up the postseason. And now that they have run the table, walked away with the big prize, it's time to start the rosterbation and start digging into the offseason.

YEAH! HOT STOVE! METAL HORNS!

(Truth be told, we probably glom onto the hot stove detritus and ramblings every year as a manner of maintaining some semblance of sanity whilst waiting for the next season to approach. It's a long cold winter, and given that our capacity to make it out to Fall and Winter League games isn't all that great, we'll have to make due with making up make-believe opening day rosters on spare scraps of paper to keep our baseball loving hearts warm and toasty.)

What will the Jays Offseason Look Like?
There's some conventional wisdom that the Jays won't do much this offseason, and that with most of their lineup and rotation in place, the personnel moves will be minimal.

Of course, this all depends on your definition of "much" when it comes to the offseason. In previous years, the Jays were said to have done little (and criticized for it). And yet, they were bringing in the likes of Scott Downs (Lefty ganesh! Compensatory picks!), Marco Scutaro (Big year! Compensatory picks!) and John Buck (holy friggin' compensatory picks!).

Sure, in the short term, that's not going to stop a dumbass like James Deacon from complaining about the lack of major league signings (what...Kevin Millar's not enough for you?), but often times, it's the little moves that are most impactful in the end.

So what do we expect? A couple of smaller moves to fill out the bullpen and replace the departing late inning guys. (We're anticipating that Gregg, Frasor and Downs will all be gone, so your bullpen "ace" is now Shawn Camp. Enjoy.)

Also, we wouldn't be surprised to see one "big-ish" move, where Alex Anthopoulos brings in at bat or a mid-to-top-rotation guy at the expense of a prospect or two. (He's said as much. Sorta. We're probably reading in to that.)

Who's our off-season mancrush?
Aubrey Huff. We can't remember the last time we were that excited to see a bunt. We're not even sure if we agreed with the strategy (we were exceedingly drunk and schmoozingly distracted in the moment that it occurred), but if Aubrey Huff can make us excited by small ball, then we want to see him mash it up as a Blue Jay.

And you cannot talk us out of this.

A two-sentence post on.... mixed emotions

Especially for fans of baseball north, winter is the longest and most desolate of seasons, robbing us of all the pleasures that baseball brings.

So tell me why, then, am I anxiously counting down the days of the post-season - one that I am thoroughly enjoying - with greedy eyes focused on the Hot Stove?

Rosterbatory ramblings

Hey, rosterbation!

Believe it or not, we didn't have much in mind when we casually tossed out a notion on Twitter that Kyle Drabek might not make a return trip to Toronto as a Blue Jay. But now that we've seen what a reaction that we received, it strikes us that stirring the pot is kinda fun. Move over, Damien Cox and Steve Simmons! There's a new coy/cynical/smug shit-disturber in town! Idle speculation kills more trees!!!1

We can't precisely recall who had put the notion in our head that he might be in play, but given what happened with Bret Wallace ("Where's Wallace, String! Where's Wallace!") this summer, we wouldn't be surprised to see the Jays most marketable trade chip move in the offseason.

Which is not to say that we have any sense of what the Jays would be looking for, or who they might target, or what their offseason agenda might be. Although if the Gose trade is anything to go on, we could see AA moving today's future front of the rotation arm for tomorrow's future ace, dealing a 2011 promise for a stronger 2013. (In theory.)

We actually don't think that moving Drabek is the smartest move for the Jays this winter, and we'd prefer to see him as the fourth or fifth starter next season. But the most positive note that we can take out of this hot stove wankery is that the Jays have plenty of good options next season to help build a stronger rotation.

A rotation which, it should be noted, shaved .36 off its starters' ERA this year, even without what's-his-ginger-beard there to lead the way.

Rule 5 Draft Day - Starring Shannon Tweed

After making some vaguely ironic (i.e. not funny) comment about our excitement for today's Rule 5 Draft, J from 3:10 to Joba called us out on Twitter over the hypocrisy of it all.

His argument, we suppose, is that we shouldn't get all excited over minor leaguers considering our aversion to the levels of "prospect porn" demonstrated by people who love their own minor leaguers too much to give them up for a stud like Roy Halladay. (Also, our aversion to Jays fans who insist that the road to glory includes stockpiling infinite numbers of compensatory picks.)

We didn't think we'd need to address this, but since it was raised, we'll say this: The Rule 5 Draft isn't a prospect porn thing. It's more like a "prospect erotic thriller", where you know that you're not gonna get much good stuff, but it's the best thing that's on hand at the moment. So to speak.

Who needs a car jumper?
Joey Gathright can jump over cars. He can also post a career slugging percentage of .303. Which is 14 points lower than John McDonald's career mark.

I hate Joey Gathright.

(And no, this doesn't count as the Major League player that we wanted to see the Jays pick up at the meetings. Because we hate Joey Gathright.)

Update: Bastian tweets that the deal isn't done. So there.

The Roy Halladay Sweepstakes
From the sounds of some of the packages being floated in the media yesterday, it's on like Donkey Kong in the race to get Doc out of Toronto. And frankly, at this point, we're liking what we hear. (Optimism!!!1)

Also, Buster Onley from ESPN notes that AA is impressing his peers with the way he is going about his business in Indy. Which is good, because you'd hate to think they view him as some dilettante weird germaphobe.

Where To Find The Latest News, Analysis and Insight on the Winter Meetings
We've spent more time on the Drunk Jays Fans blog than any other Canadian site this week. Where the hell else are you going to go?

(This would be a good week for a winter DJF podcast, don't you think?)

The Manager Speaks
But we're not listening. La la la la la we can't hear you! La la la la!

Three wishes for the Winter Meetings swap meet

Recognizing that we've spent much of the last five months being something between a Debbie Downer and an Negative Nancy, we've recommitted ourself to bring a little sunshine and optimism around these parts for the next little while.

Can you feel the positivity flowing through your monitor at this very moment?

Rather than piss and moan about the lack of happenings or movement, we've decided to float out into the universe three simple wishes for the Solstice Confab in Indianapolis. And if we only get one out of these three cravings are met, we can live with that. Heck, we could handle the meetings ending with none of these three wishes met, because we're Happy Tao. (Or at least, we aspire to be.)

Wish # 1 - A Major League Addition
Whether if by free agent or trade, we'd like to have a shiny new toy under the tree by week's end. It doesn't have to be much of anything, or some earth-shattering signing. Just some guy who has played big league ball somewhere and who can step in a do something at some point next year. We'd happily take a Josh Willingham, for instance.

Wish # 2 - An Interesting Rule 5 Pick
The last Rule 5 pick to really stick with the Jays was Corey Thurman back in 2001. (Okay, Randy Wells got one inning of work in 2008. Which isn't really sticking as we perceive it.) There isn't a ton of MLB ready talent that is sitting on the outside of other teams' 40-man rosters...but then again, the Jays have some space on their 25-man to possibly give a dude a chance.

Wish # 3 - Resolution to the Roy Halladay Sweepstakes
Because at this point, we just want him to get on with his career, and we want to get on with the business of our fandom. We're not holding out for this package or that prospect or what have you. We would just like to get this bit of business out of the way.

Is that so much to ask? And what do you have on your list, boys and girls?

A guide to judging the appropriateness of your response to the Johnny Mac signing

(Editor's Note: This entire post was written and posted before the news that the Jays signed Alex Gonzalez. Maybe it isn't as funny or pertinent anymore. But read along anyhow.)

The vast majority of the responses that we received about the John McDonald signing yesterday were negative, but to varying degrees. (And yes, for some reason, people send their complaints to me, as though I could do something about it.)

But most people still felt somewhat conflicted, because how are you gonna hate on Johnny Mac? The Prime Minister of Defense! Come on!

To help you through this time, we offer a quick breakdown of the various subsets of reactions to the McDonald signing, and judge the appropriateness (is that a word?) of each of them.

The Oblivious "Fuck Yeah!" Happy Subset
Characterized by: A general feeling of elation. These folks are totally stoked that Johnny Mac, the heart and soul of the Blue Jays, is coming back. They may have worn their "McDonald 6" jerseys over their jackets last night. May have had "PMOD 4 EVER" tattooed on their bits yesterday.
Is this reaction appropriate? Not at all. As nice a guy as McDonald is, this is not a great moment in franchise history.
Possible treatments: A quick gander at McDonald's career offensive numbers.

The Ambivalent Subset
Characterized by: A feeling that the signing is a terrible omen, followed by a profound feeling of guilt over their unspoken disdain for such a prince of a guy. May have spent time looking at the Jays 40-man roster, identifying the other "25th men on the roster". Relieved to hear that the Jays are still looking for a starting SS.
Is this reaction appropriate? Absolutely. It's what the sane man is thinking. (Well, it's what we're thinking. If you would characterize us as sane.)
Possible treatments: Watching YouTube videos of Johnny Mac's defensive prowess. Prorating JMac's four homers over a full season.

The WTF?!! Subset
Characterized by: Angry tweeting and angry commenting. Recriminations. May have drawn a link between McDonald's salary and unsigned draft picks. Sent over the edge by the news that the deal was for two years.
Is this reaction appropriate? Probably not. There is some truth to the fact that the signing is not the happiest news ever, and the second year is shocking. But signing a utility guy to a contract worth $1.5 Mill isn't the end of the world.
Possible treatments: Looking at the alternatives. Looking at the salaries of other utility infielders. Deep breathing. Positive visualization.

The Bandwagon Jumper Subset
Characterized by: Threats to stop going to games or watching games on TV. Declarations that this is "the last straw". Threats of cheering for other teams. Threats of canceling Rogers services.
Is this reaction appropriate? Oh, please. Stop. If you don't want to stick with the team through the bad times, then fine. Go cheer for the Tigers. (And what, pray tell) will you do when they trade Miguel Cabrera?
Possible treatments: Checking yourself before you wreck yourself. Sucking it up. Ceasing to be such a whining princess drama queen.

Pre Winter Meeting Musings

We're a little over 2 weeks away from this year's MLB Winter Meetings, where the bulk of the offseason action is likely to take place. That means your humble (no, really) weekend keyboard monkey has little of substance on which to pontificate.

Instead, here are some hot (er, lukewarm?) topics running through my head:

* It's been mentioned in the comments section, and it bears repeating here since I've often had the same thought - why can't Brian Dopirak be a serviceable option in the Jays lineup next year? No, really, I'm asking. I've heard - and can't necessarily disagree with - all the reasons why he's a longshot to stick at the major league level: it took him 4 seasons to get past 'A' ball, he's old for the level, he's beating up on minor league retreads, etc.

But here's the thing: his numbers have been fantastic since the start of 2008. He comes with a pedigree (2nd round pick). And he's no longer blocked (/sarcasm) by the manager's favorite, Kevin Millar.

Can't it be that he just turned the corner in his development and is now reaching that 2nd round potential? And can't we give the dude a shot before writing him off? For my money, he's exactly the type of player a "building" team needs to take a long, hard look at. It will be a disappointment - for me, anyway - if he doesn't break camp with the team (pending any substantial offseason moves to shore up 1B/DH, of course).

* .....and since we're here, is it completely unreasonable to assume (hope?) that one of Jarret Hoffpauir or Mike McCoy can be a useful player in the infield? I mean, as it stands, we're looking at Aaron Hill....and that's about it, as far as sure-fire returnees go. Personally, I'm hoping for one or both to make the team, if for no other reason than the blogging possibilities (Hoff! The Real McCoy!). Yeah, maybe I'm reaching now.

* We all now Alex Anthopoulos has floated the notion that he isn't adverse to trading Roy Halladay within the division. On the surface - as brutally gut-wrenching as it would be - it makes sense to take the best deal for the Jays out there. But I'm starting to think that might just be a smokescreen to drive up the market for non-AL East teams who might be interested in acquiring the services of the true Ace (Doc is a capital-A ace).

And maybe it's working? Fresh off the news that the Dodgers (let's ignore the implications of ol' Frankie McCourt's divorce) are focusing on Doc - with the name 'Chad Billingsley' being tossed around - comes word of early discussions with the Cubs.

During last season's trade deadline fiasco, the Cubs were never viewed as a serious players, due primarily to the perceived lack of prospect depth. But they do have Starlin Castro, who's generating some pretty serious buzz, and potential big bat Josh Vitters in the system, so.....

* I don't see any way that the (unreasonably) under appreciated Lyle Overbay returns, at this point. Given the volume of trade rumors surrounding him, and given the return of Cito....I just think it would end badly.

* Rethinking the Brandon Phillips speculation....unless one of Phillips/Hill were to make a move to SS....yeah, what's the point. His bat would not be an upgrade over Edwin Encarnacion, and it's impossible to say how he'd play defensively at the hot corner. But a double play combo of Hill & Phillips up the middle might not be so bad, would it?

* Something has to happen in the outfield, doesn't it? Can we really envision an everyday alignment of Lind-Wells-Snider defensively? That's assuming of course, that Snider sees AB's against more than just right-handed pitching, and Lind doesn't move to 1B, and....

* One thing's for certain: AA has his work cut out for him. He has no choice but to put his stamp on the team. Let's just hope it's his own.

A One-Sentence Post on...Brandon Phillips

Further to Blair's floated notion this morning, we've got mad love for Brandon Phillips, even if he's never played a major league game at third, and he's only once OPSed higher than .800 in his career.

The Tao's Wandering Eye: Nick Johnson

With the Nationals' recent signing of some dude who doesn't even like baseball, they are left with a veritable cornucopia of 1B/OF/DH types. And seeing as how they are still stuck in the National League, they're not going to be able to get them all into the lineup on a regular basis.

Chances are that someone out of that mix is going to get moved, and if we had our druthers, the Jays would take a run at oft-injured first baseman Nick Johnson.

Sure, Johnson's missed a ton of games over his career due to a series of injuries. But when he's been healthy and when he's played, he's put up the sort of offensive numbers that would make the Jays' current lineup blush.

Johnson sports a .396 on base percentage and an .852 OPS over his eight-year career with the Yankees, Expos and Nationals. With the exception of Scott Rolen (whose glory days are behind him), nobody on the Jays' current roster even comes close to those numbers. Not Wells (.332, .812), not Rios (.338, .793), and certainly not Overbay (.362, .809).

In his last fully healthy season in 2006, Johnson posted a .948 OPS with 46 doubles, 23 homers and 110 walks in 500 ABs for the Nats.

Of course, 2006 is a long time ago, and Johnson missed most of last season with a wrist tendon injury, so there's an obvious question as to how many left-handed hitting first basemen with gimpy appendages you need on one roster. At the same time, it's at least reasonable to expect that a healthy Johnson would put up better numbers in 2009 than Overbay, Adam Lind, Kevin Millar, José Bautista or even Travis Snider, and that the Nationals may be willing to part with him for less than his value.

With a salary of just over $5 million for next season, Johnson would be affordable to the Jays provided they were able to send some salary back in the other direction. And even if the numbers don't necessarily add up, how can you put a price on adding a guy to your roster who is the spitting image of Pvt. Pyle from Full Metal Jacket?

昔の日本人男性との契約に署名ブルージェイズ

高橋健古いですが、彼はブルージェイズの先発登板することがあります。

私たちは彼について何も知らない。

マイクMarothである可能性よりも彼は、より良い投手。

(More info on our new rotation lynchpin is available at JapaneseBaseball.com.)

The Tao's Wandering Eye: Ty Wigginton

Why Ty?

Because he hit more homers than any Blue Jay last year
He hit 23, for those of you who are counting. In just 386 at bats, by the way. And that's 39 fewer AB's than it took for Vernon Wells to hit 20.

Because he's played all over the diamond.
He could slot in at first (if Overbay is hurt or sucks), or at third (if Rolen is hurt), or in the outfield (if the magic just doesn't happen for either Adam Lind or Travis Snider). Or he could DH. Whatever, dude.

Because he's played in the AL East before
And he's posted an OPS of .891 versus the Red Sox and .831 versus the Yankees. If you're into that sort of thing.

Because he's lovably plump and he has a big cranium
Somebody's got to replace Kevin Mench's cartoonishly huge skull in the lineup.

Because we have an uncanny ability to ignore some glaring truths
Like the fact that Wigginton posted a 1.080 OPS in the former Enron Park and a .697 OPS everywhere else.