A Note On A Quote

"Do they all pan out? Do they all do well? Who knows? But I'm not opposed at all to taking prospects and trading them for big-league players.

"They're not all going to play up here and part of drafting and signing and developing these players is to use them to supplement the big  league team. I think the depth is certainly there to make a trade, and it's something we'll look at if we think we can get a player who can be part of this."

I've thrown those words around on this blog a number of times, and I'll be damned if I don't keep coming back to them.  That was Alex Anthopoulos in November 2010, just over two short years ago.  The context then was different than it is now for the Toronto Blue Jays.  At that time, acquiring "a player who can be a part of this" sounded tantalizing, despite the fact that many of us didn't have a clue what "this" was.

We had an inkling that we were in the early stages of a plan; Anthopoulos has always seemed to have a plan.  Or maybe we just needed to believe he had a plan to help us sleep at night.  In the autumn of 2010, the notion of trading large swaths of the still-under-construction prospect base was more far-off fantasy than immediate option to create a contending major league roster.

As a result, two years ago, I was probably spending more time trying to sort out whether departing players were Type A or Type B free agents under the old collective agreement than whether incoming players were any damn good.  The idea of bringing in-their-prime, elite talent to Toronto was fun to think about, in the same way that buying a winter home in the Cayman Islands is fun to think about -- maybe one day if things break right, but not really in the cards right now.

Still, I (and many others) clung to the "They're not all going to play up here" quote, through the strange ride that saw marginal relievers and backup-turned-starting catchers cycle through town as part of the Anthopoulos quest for supplemental draft picks.  I told myself it's all going somewhere, that watching Kevin Gregg walk three or four guys in an inning was just the price we were paying to stock the prospect pipeline.

Then something funny happened along the way:  I got to really like some of those prospects.  I read all the analysis, and then the analysis of the analysis, of all the annual Top 100 prospect lists, upon which more and more names from Lansing, Dunedin, New Hamsphire and Las Vegas seemed to turn up every year.

I still kept the quote tucked in my back pocket, ready to pull out when Anthopoulos made a deal that made me squirm a little bit because I'd invested a few hopes and dreams in a kid I'd never really seen play.  Sure, Alex, move one or two of those stud prospects, you know, if you have to, but don't trade the special ones.

Turns out none of them were special.  Or, more accurately, even the most special ones weren't immune to what was foreshadowed of November 2010.

I can't claim any deep inside knowledge of the character or intentions of the GM of the Toronto Blue Jays.  I can only take what he says, compare it to what he does, and see how they match up.  And even though he seems to talk in circles that leave the kind of wiggle room any politician would envy, I've found that he generally does what he says.

So long, then, Travis d'Arnaud.  Be well, Jake Marisnick.  Go get 'em, Noah Syndergaard.  You were fun to read about.  You're probably going to be fun to watch for other teams.  But then again, "Who knows?" Right?

But we should have known all along you weren't all going to play up here.

A Whole New World

Well, then.  We've had ourselves quite a couple weeks as Blue Jays fans, haven't we?

Between the Maicer Izturis signing, and then THE TRADE (TM) and most recently the Melky Cabrera signing, your humble correspondent has barely had time to catch his breath.  There's been lots of smart, passionate and well-written stuff put out there -- both online and in the good old MSM -- about what's been going on, and I don't want to rehash it too much here.

So without getting too philosophical about what's transpired, and what might still be coming down the pipeline, I have a few short thoughts.

I've been a fan of this team for a long time, but only for the last, say, six or seven years have I followed personnel changes closely enough to form strong opinions about them.  I was a much younger man in the early 1990s, and the significance of the Joe Carter/Roberto Alomar trade, or the Paul Molitor or David Cone or Dave Winfield acquisitions, or the others that turned a good team into a great one, were mostly lost on me.  I was happy that my team was getting better and ecstatic that they won two championships, but I didn't spend much time thinking about how all that was happening, at what cost, or about whether it would last.  I was mostly thinking about who might be able to get me booze for the weekend without getting carded.

Now, I'm an older, more dedicated, (I like to think) more informed, and more opinionated fan than I was in those days.  I've tried to recognize the team for what it was for several years:  a usually good, never great, fairly entertaining bunch that kept my attention and made me appreciate baseball a little more all the time.  At the same time, I understood and accepted that there was a difference between the way they approached the business of the game and the way teams like the Yankees, Red Sox and other big spenders did.  I could still enjoy them for what they were.

The past seven to ten days may not have completely turned that whole paradigm on its head, but it's as close as we've seen to that happening.  Whether the Toronto Blue Jays, and their corporate ownership at Rogers, now intend to remain a top-5 or top-10 payroll in baseball for perpetuity remains to be seen.  But for the time being, the franchise has cast their lot with the big boys.

The expectations are different now, and they might not live up to them.  And even if they don't, we'd all be well advised to think back to how we felt this week -- this dizzying blend of optimism, anxiousness, hope and a bit of fear -- and remember that it was still about as good as we've felt about this team for roughly a generation.

Best week ever?  Best week ever.

Five Other Guys Who Could Play First

Somewhere along the line, the idea that the Jays could take a run at Prince Fielder (or to a lesser extent Albert Pujols) or could try to pry Joey Votto loose has evolved in the minds of Jays fans from a flight of fancy to an absolute necessity. We fear that even musing about those players has amped up Jays fans to a point where they can't help but be disappointed when none of those players come to Toronto in the offseason.

(And though we think that Alex Anthopoulos is a magical creature who makes the impossible occur with some regularity, we feel pretty comfortable saying that none of those guys will be Blue Jays anytime soon.)

But because we hate to see people disappointed, we offer up the following list of players who we think could be had at a minimal cost, and who could provide the Jays with a decent solution for a year or two at first base/DH, should they decide that Adam Lind is not the best option.

(For a point of reference going forward, Lind's numbers are: .297 OBP, .442 SLG, .739 OPS, and an offensive WAR of 0.4 according to Baseball Reference.)

Carlos Lee: Lee has a year left on his mega-deal with the Astros, worth $19 million. That's a lot of dough, but Houston might be just as happy to let it go for cheap, while the Jays wouldn't be locking themselves into anything onerous in the long term. Lee has posted a not-terrible .330 OBP to go with a .444 SLG this year, and has played 62 games at first with positive UZR numbers (for whatever they might be worth).

Todd Helton: The Rockies' first baseman is in the twilight of his career, having just turned 38. Still, he's managed to post an .859 OPS (.387 OBP/.472 SLG) this year, which slots him just ahead of Mark Teixeira in that "dumber" metric. He has three years left on his long term deal with Colorado, but at $4.9, $5.0 and $1.31 million through 2014, that's a very manageable number. With Ian Stewart looking to get another shot at a full-time big league job, the Rockies might be inclined to let their franchise's most beloved player go.

Carlos Pena: After signing a one-year, $10 million deal with the Cubs last off-season, Pena has battled back from slow start and is now putting up numbers that you'd pretty much expect from him (.355 OBP, .461 SLG, .816 OPS). Pena is represented by Scott Boras, so no one should expect a sweetheart of a deal to be forthcoming. But for a guy whose offensive WAR is at par with that of Ryan Howard (2.3), it wouldn't be a terrible idea to see if a reasonable one- or two-year deal isn't a possibility.

Logan Morrison: Morrison's probably better suited to play first base than the outfield. (We have lots of questions about UZR, but LoMo's -15.9 UZR/150 number for his career at least indicates that it's not all bouquets and fruit baskets out there.) His offensive year hasn't been as superb as one might have hoped (.328/.451/.779), but those are still better numbers than Lind's. Also, given the all the ruckus around him, his demotion and his outspoken defense of former batting guru (John Mallee, who was fired by Florida but subsequently hired by the Blue Jays to serve as a roaming instructor), it could be that he didn't have his full focus on the game. He's just 24, and we think he'd benefit from the proverbial change of scenery.

Adam Dunn: Is Adam Dunn really this bad? Does he really not like baseball? Is he really a guy who posts a .576 OPS? Whose uninspiring OBP (.295) is actually higher than his SLG (.285)? Given that over the three previous seasons, Dunn posted a cummulative .380 OBP/.526 SLG/.906 OPS, we be willing to bet on some sort of comeback, especially if he were given the chance to play the field again. Is that bet worth the $44 million remaining on Dunn's contract over the next three seasons? That's probably up for debate, but he'll certainly cost the Jays less than any of the other names being bandied about.

Was there anyone we missed? Any other 1B/DH types who the Jays should consider for next year and beyond? Drop us a line in the comments, and we'd love to hear your take.

The dominoes begin to fall

Personally, we blame the Ack.

There we were, totally ready to settle in for a snoozy offseason, with nothing but marginal moves and the odd pickup of a guy on a short deal for little money. It wasn't going to upset nobody's apple cart.

And then our Weekend Editor (who will - to his surprise - be taking the reins around here for much of the holiday season) goes and starts writing about dominoes and splashy moves and goddamnit! Say goodbye to Shaun Marcum. We halfway considered going into the Ack's post from the weekend and switching out any mentions of "Travis Snider" for "Eric Thames" and "Kyle Drabek" for "Brad Mills", just to see if we could avoid any further stress and strain.

(Yes...in our mind, this offseason is like an episode of the Twilight Zone where whatever The Ack thinks comes true. So be prepared to make the trek westward to see the Winnipeg Blue Jays starting next year. On the plus side, they'll be in the Central Division! Playoffs!!!1)

Okay, enough of the tomfoolery. A few quick thoughts:

The Marcum Trade
There are some who figure that the Marcum trade is just the start of the moves, and that the Zack Greinke acquisition is sure to follow. The longer we had to think about it, the more that we figured that someone might have grabbed their Jump to Conclusions mat and started hoping around like a mad man.

So setting aside what comes next: We'll give our blog bro hug to Marcum later this week, and we're sad to see him go, but he seemed like the most obvious piece to move. He'll be 29 this year, and likely has a few good seasons left in that arm. But the Jays were getting close to a point where they would have to commit to him, and it was better to move him early rather than late.

Also: We were totally wrong about Marcum's delivery, which we use to think was easy and effortless. But now we look at that pronation, and it kinda scares us. So we can live with that being another team's problem.

As for who's coming back: We're all probably a little too invested in Bret Lawrie as Canadian baseball fans. Strip the maple leaf off his chest, and tell us that the Jays just acquired a guy who has been moved from position to position, hit eight homers last season and posted an OPS below .800 at Double-A, and refused to report to the Arizona Fall League, and we probably would have spent most of the day scratching our heads over this. It would have made the Anthony Gose deal seem obvious.

Still, Lawrie is well-regarded by at least a few scouts out there. We hope. And he's only 21. So there's time for him to pull his stuff together.

(Also, one report noted that the Jays may have been after Mat Gamel, which made us wonder who we'd prefer. We'd lean towards Gamel at this point, with the notion that he'd be ready to take over at third immediately. But we're open to being proved wrong.)

BREAKING! Pat Gillick in the Hall of Fame!
This is not unexpected, but is still great news nonetheless. A trifecta of Gillick, Robbie Alomar and Tom Cheek would make for a hell of a Canadian contingest at Cooperstown this year. But again, let's not get ahead of ourselves.

One thought on Gillick, which we've stated here before, but which bears repeating: There was a time where he was in the sights of the Canadian sports media, who tore into him for not doing enough to put the Jays over the top. "Stand Pat" they called, and they were pretty much ready to run him out of town in 1988.

So to the GMs of Toronto franchises, we offer this bit of solace: It gets better.

Speedy thoughts on Rajai

The Jays acquisition of Rajai Davis is one of the more confounding moves in Alex Anthopoulos' time as GM.

It's confounding not so much because we don't understand the "why" of the move, because the acquisition of Major League calibre outfield depth was likely to occur with the departures of DeWayne Wise and possibly Fred Lewis. Adding a guy who could be a very serviceable starter if the need arose makes sense.

But what we don't quite understand is what we now have in Davis. We know that he can pile up stolen bases. (And, as Drew pointed out to us last night over a tasty beverage at our Jays Tweeters Algonquin Round Table, he can use that speed to go first-to-third or score from second). But is he really a leadoff hitter? With a .320 OBP? And a walk rate of 4.6%?

Is he a very good fielder, as his 2009 UZR/150 of +10 would attest? Or is he as lousy as the -10.2 that he posted in that same metric just one year later?

If everything plays out right, we could definitely see Rajai as an everyday guy who slides into each of the outfield slots, and posting an OPS near .800 and getting driven in often by the heart of the order.

Mind you, much of this could be moot within the next few weeks if Anthopoulos continues to find serviceable stray ballplayers here or there, or one big deal. So ask us what we think of the move after a couple of weeks. We'll have it all figured out by then.

Going the other way
The Jays let Trystan Magnuson (Canadian!) and Danny Farquhar go in exchange, which doesn't seem like that much to give up. Both showed some promise at Double-A, but they are getting long in the tooth (25 and 23) to be considered prospects, and their progression doesn't suggest guys who are ascending to be valuable bullpen arms in the near term. Not that they are a couple of bums, but we don't see this really impacting on any team other than the Fisher Cats next year.

New Toys!!!

Okay: So we had to give up Alex Gonzalez, who we've grown to love, and Tiny Tim Collins, who was a mountain of a main in a little tiny package. (And Tyler Pastoral Hickeys or something or other.)

But, dudes: Yunel Escobar? For reals? Is it Christmas already?

Okay, this isn't like getting the Six Million Dollar Man action figure, like we did when we were a wee lad. Because the only equivalent to that would be getting Hanley and Josh Johnson, or something equally awesome.

(Three words: Bionic motherfucking grip. Awesome.)

No, this is more along the lines of the Jan and Dean record that you got, which you kinda thought was cool in the moment ("Hey, look! I gots a record!") and which would give you hours of enjoyment through the next few years as your nascent love of surf music would begin to emerge.


Okay. Maybe it's nothing like either of those things. But it is kinda exciting to tear off the wrapping paper and see something new and shiny to play with and write about over the next few seasons.

There's probably not a ton of analysis that we can add to the mix at this point, given that pretty much everyone in our hemisphere has already tossed the "Sold high on Gonzalez / Bought low on Yunel" meme out there. We do have some concern that Escobar is really just this year's edition of Wilson Betemit, a super-hyped Braves prospect who quickly will fades into obscurity as a bench player somewhere else in the next few years.

Nevertheless. As the host of MLB.com's Fantasy 411 Cory Schwartz is fond of saying: Don't confuse the outcome with the decision. This is a smart move for the Jays to attempt to get a younger, more controllable player in exchange for a player who may well have already maxed out his value to the team (plus a couple of players who profile as marginal major leaguers at this point). Before the season, we would have gladly taken a 17 homer season and plus-defense from Alex Gonzalez. We've already received that. Now, let's see if Yunel's offensive mojo can somehow be brought back to life by the healing hands of Dwayne Murphy and The Manager.

The trade deadline was like a Jason Marquis fastball to the noggin

You know, it could have been much worse. But it still kinda stings.

When last we left you, the Jays had just traded Scott Rolen to Cincinnati for someone other than Yonder Alonso, and someone on Twitter blew our minds with the late and false rumour that Roy Halladay had been dealt at the last minute to Anaheimish for Brandon Wood and Erick Aybar. And being the upright citizens that we are, we repeated that falacious rumour so that all of you could have a nice prolonged freak out for a good dozen minutes or so before it was quashed.

It all seems like so long ago, doesn't it?

Thoughts on the Rolen deal
We've stated on a number of occasions that what we truly enjoy about the trade deadline is having opinions on players that we've never seen or even heard of before. With the Rolen deal to Cincy, we'd become so infatuated with burly power-hitting first bagger Yonder Alonso that anyone else was going to seem like a consolation prize.

That said, we're not totally upset by the package that came back for the former GBOAT, especially given that Rolen was pining for Middle America and would not have been a happy camper to stay in Toronto for much longer.

The key to this deal - aside from the savings of $6 million - will likely end up being pitcher Zach Stewart. The 2008 third-rounder has moved quickly through the Reds' system, reaching triple-A in less than a year. A closer at Texas Tech, Stewart had been starting this year at double-A Carolina, but returned to a relief role after his promotion to Louisville.

MLB.com still has a scouting report on Stewart posted on their site, including some teasingly brief video and a description of his as a late first round or sandwich pick. We're not sure why he slid to the third round, but there is a chance that the Jays managed to steal a pretty good arm out of this deal.

As for Josh Roenicke (the proper spelling of whose name is going to kill us by the end of the season), we were actually pretty shocked this weekend to hear Sportsnet's Jamie Campbell announce that he had turned 28 on Sunday. We're sure that Roenicke would have felt the same way, since he turns 27 on Tuesday.

Aside from that bit of nitpicking, we think that Roenicke is a smart pick up to help bolster the freak show that is the Jays' bullpen. With Scott Downs once again hurt (and we told you as much last week), it is good to have an option like Roenicke, who has saved 55 games in the minors over the past four years.

As for the most known name coming back in the deal, we're not exactly thrilled to see Edwin Encarnacion patrolling third base for the Jays. Given the plethora of left-handed starters that the Jays have been running out to the mound this season, having the iron-gloved Eddie at the hot corner gives us the hives.

We're hopeful that getting out of Dusty Baker's doghouse might inspire Encarnacion to put up half decent power numbers. At the very least, it would be nice if there wasn't a steep decline from the good numbers that Rolen had been putting up to this point.

Farewell, Scrappy Doo

For as much shit as we piled on top of David Eckstein this year, we're glad to see him make his way to a contender. And wouldn't you know, the gritty gamer managed to drive in the game-winning RBI last night for the D-Backs. Good on him.

Our antipathy towards Eckstein had little to do with his offensive performance and everything to do with the fact that he was keeping John McDonald on the bench following his breathtaking 2007 season in the field. We wanted to see more of that magic, and Eckstein was an impediment to our happiness. That's all.

Besides which, doesn't it seem right that Little X should be in a pennant race and wearing a red cap?

A one-sentence post on...parting

It is such sweet sorrow indeed to know that with his trade to the Pirates yesterday, Robinson Diaz will never again share a manly embrace with Adam Lind...at least not on the playing field.

José Bautista is the final piece of the puzzle

The Jays have acquired José Bautista and he will lead them to the promised land.

Okay, so that's a bit of an overstatement, given the fact that the perennially-dreadful Pirates couldn't even see fit to keep him on their Major League roster.

On the other hand, it is important to remember that even though Bautista's been languishing in Indianapolis since August 10, he's still hit more homers in 2008 (12) than anyone on the Jays roster.

Bautista strikes out a lot (77 whiffs in 314 ABs) and has a replacement level OPS of .729. Look across the stats, and Bautista pretty much matches whatever Matt Stairs has done this year, for better or for worse.

(Officially) Hello, Goodbye

With the health and economic issues resolved, we can officially look forward to Scott Rolen donning the silver and black (groan) of the Blue Jays this year.

What's particularly fun about this trade is the fact that it is a good old fashioned fantasy league challenge trade: your guy for our guy, and let's see who does better.

Not that we want to start making excuses already, but before anyone (looking your way, Professor Griff) starts to compare Glaus and Rolen's power numbers this year, let's remember that Glaus is a mistake hitter who crushes pitches that errantly wander into the strike zone. Playing in the NL Central, he'll get his share, and will (if his health accommodates) hit 30 bombs or more in Saint Lou. (He might hit 30 off the Pirates' Zach Duke alone.)

Of course, we'll have to factor in the the magical healing power of Busch's natural grass surface, which will not only make Glaus run like the wind and slug 150 points higher, but will also make him six inches taller. And when he runs on said magical grass, he'll make that Six Million Dollar Man Steve Austin ch-ch-ch-ch sound.

Rolen's contributions will be a little harder to measure at first blush. He'll get to more balls at third and he'll run the bases far better than Lurch could with his plantar fascism. He'll be lucky to hit 20 homers, but he'll also be vaguely useful against right-handers.

Reactions from both sides

• The Drunk Jays Fans have a good wrap up on the trade, which elicited barely coherent comments from a few vaguely literate Cardinals fans.
• Deadspin empresario and Cards apologist Will Leitch said goodbye to Rolen, which opened up the Gawkerblog's comments to the barely literate hipster bourgeoisie that skulk around those parts. (Sample comment: "Troy Glaus just reinjured his shoulder while patting himself on the back for getting out of Canada.")
• Viva El Birdos (shouldn't that be los birdos?) have already indexed the seasons for each player's new ballpark, and have figured out that Rolen is going to slug .319. So since that's settled, we might as well shut down the blog until next year.
• The Post-Dispatch's Jeff Gordon has turned on Rolen, essentially calling him a malcontent and ne'erdowell who wrote his ticket out of town by not bowing to the superior knowledge of Tony "Red Light" LaRussa. (What's especially rich is the "why would anyone want to go to Toronto?" comment...oh, who knows? Maybe he'd just like to get the hell out of the Midwest. It's not inconceivable.)
  

Duelling Mailbags

Blue Jays fans ask MLB.com's Jordan Bastian: "Why would the Jays trade Glaus for Rolen? It's not that great an upgrade, is it?"

Cardinals fans ask MLB.com's Matthew Leach: "Why would the Cards trade Rolen for Glaus? It's not that great an upgrade, is it?"

UPDATE: The St. Louis Post-Dispatch's Derrick Goold reports that doctors have examined both players, although there is no news on whether if either team's doctor performed the "old finger trick", as Karl Pilkington would call it. Now it all comes down to a few games of three-card monte to determine the financials, and the deal is done.

Doctor and the Medics Evaluate Trade

And now, we wait for the respective medical staffs to sign off on this whole mess, which the Star's always well-dressed Cathal Kelly reports should happen today.

Not to send bad omens out there in the universe, but we'll just mention that when off-season deals involving guys with dodgy shoulders are mentioned, there's one word that floats and bobs through our mind like a turd in hot tub: Sirotka.

Out with the old and in with the older

After spending most of the day on the road and incommunicado, we were greeted at home to a frantic voicemail from Shortwaveboy, giving us the 411 on this whole Glaus for Rolen tomfoolery.

(Funny side note: we just got back from a late Christmas gift exchange with the in-laws, which included a Jays t-shirt emblazoned with Troy Glaus' name and number. Seriously. What are the odds?)

So what the hell does it all mean?

We'd tend to side with the G&M's Jeff Blair, who writes that if Rolen is healthy, this is a much better deal for the Jays. Of course, we'd place some real heavy emphasis on the IF, because Rolen's last four seasons have been plagued by a litany of injuries, both small and large. He's also two years older than Glaus, so the end of the productive portion of his career might be closer than we think. (Then again, Glaus looked like an eighty year-old on the basepaths last year, so many those two years aren't as big a deal as we think.)

There is a concern with the fact that Rolen has yapped his way out of two cities, although the two managers (Larry Bowa in Philly, Tony "Red Light" LaRussa in STL) that got under his skin were meddlesome egomaniacs, and geniuses in their own minds. And we can all agree that whatever Gibby is, he isn't any of those things.

There's many a slip between a cup and a lip, and finishing this deal off will require waiving no trade clauses and clear physicals, the latter of which would be a minor niracle for these two rustbuckets.

But thank the lord, we've got something to write about this week!

Damn! Someone stole our adult film star name!

His name is Buck Coats, and he is the newest Blue Jay.

(I guess we'll have to find a new career, now that he's laid claim to the best p*rn name since Dick Pound.)