Farrell And Everything After

Photo from the wonderful @james_in_to. More of his great stuff here.

I had counted myself among the horde who didn't believe for a second that if and when the Toronto Blue Jays traded their manager, John Farrell, to the Boston Red Sox, they would receive anything more than an above-average prospect in return.  Barring the inclusion of a higher-level player from Toronto's side, I was fairly certain that a major-league player would not be coming back north of the border.

Here we are more than a week later, and things obviously shook out much differently than I had expected they would.  Frankly, I'm pretty happy with how things transpired.  I didn't actively dislike John Farrell as a manager, really, but I also didn't put him on any kind of pedestal either.  For two years, he was just kinda there, inspiring mostly indifference in me, despite my protestations on Twitter against his daily inclusion of Adam Lind as his cleanup hitter or some other passing transgression.

The trade, in which Toronto acquired Mike Aviles in return for their erstwhile skipper, opens up a couple of key questions for GM Alex Anthopoulos and the rest of the organization to address (to go with a pile of others the team will need to address this off-season, but we'll get to those later in the fall and winter).  The answers to those key questions are going to have a material impact on the approaches the team might take in 2013 and beyond -- although those impacts might not be immediately evident.

The first question, obviously, is who will replace Farrell as manager.  Anthopoulos has had one crack at picking a manager and landed, after much careful consideration, on Farrell.  Along with that choice came a particular approach to in-game strategy, clubhouse management, and all the other things a manager can influence.  Now, if the Road to Contention in the AL East were a video game, this represents a chance to at least re-start the current level.  You may have to start again a little further back than you were, but at least you have a sense what's coming at you and what you did wrong last time. Picking another manager now, after an abbreviated stint like Farrell had, gives Anthopoulos an opportunity to re-assess what it is he wants from his manager.

If there really was a disconnect between Farrell and Anthopoulos (I'm not sure there was), or if Anthopoulos has a firmer idea now of what kind of manager he needs than he might have had the first time around (I have to think he does), the GM will now get to pick a manager that he expects will fit his vision, strategy and resources better.  But there's still a huge element of guesswork involved, since it's not until the manager is in the job -- and has a roster to work with -- that results will even start to be evident.

The new manager's approach will become evident not through an introductory news conference, but rather through the dribs and drabs of information that show themselves through the course of a season.  One of those bits of data will be the way the manager utilizes a player like the freshly-arrived Aviles.

Here's a reasonably versatile middle-infield type, with a little bit of pop and a little bit of speed, and a sizable platoon split in which he's a career .344 wOBA in his career against lefties, versus a .297 against righties.

Could Aviles play every day at second base or at shortstop with numbers like those?  Sure, I guess.

Would he make a better strict platoon partner for, say, a Daniel Murphy, who bats from the other side and hits righties better than lefties, and who has been reported to be on the trading block for some time, including this past summer?  Or perhaps as a utility guy, filling in where and when his particular skill set matches best -- like starting against lefties, pinch-hitting against them when they come out of the bullpen, and being an important asset in case of injury?  Absolutely yes.

I'll concede that to use Aviles in such a way would necessitate some other upgrades to the roster in the middle infield, in particular at second base, with everything else remaining equal (that is to say, with Yunel Escobar remaining a Blue Jay or a reasonable facsimile of a starting shortstop taking his place).  That's going to be on the General Manager's shoulders.

In the optimum situation, though, I hope a new manager will be the kind of guy who isn't necessarily glued to an every-day 1 through 9 in the batting order and in the field.  I'm not talking about Joe Maddon's mad scientist routine here, which despite the accolades it gets, can also get in the way of itself.  But given this team's resources, and the talent it has now and can reasonably be expected to add in areas like the middle infield, it wouldn't hurt at all to show a bit more creativity where it's warranted.

Flexible Like Yan Gomes...Only Better

Photo courtesy @james_in_to.

One of the fun things about being a sports fan these days is that moment when you start to lose your perspective in the midst of a visceral reaction to a play on the field. John McDonald makes a stunning play in the field? MAKE HIM A JAY FOR LIFE! Jesse Carlson strikes out the side with the bases loaded? FUTURE CLOSER!

Last night, we had a similar moment soon after Yan Gomes hit a game tying homer in the ninth. Soon thereafter, my Twitter feed - spurred by Gregg Zaun's comments - looked something like: GOMES IS THE MOST VALUABLE PLAYER IN BLUE JAYS HISTORY, WITH THE POP AND THE EIGHT POSITIONS HE PLAYS! KEY TO 2013 PLAYOFFS!

In the particular case of Yan Gomes, the reaction was clearly over the top, though I applaud those who were willing to get that enthusiastic in the late innings of game 160 in this cruddy season. But taking a clear-eyed view of Gomes, you have to recognize that he is really a backup catcher, and not much more.

Sure, credit is due to the Brazilian rookie for picking up the slack at third and first on occasion, and for his 8.2 innings of work in an emergency role in left field. (Where he has yet to field a single ball, just so you know.) But it's important to remember that the catching position for 2013 is one of the few where the Jays have more options than roster spots at this point.

With J.P. Arencibia, Travis d'Arnaud and Jeff Mathis all looking for opportunities to squat behind the dish, there would seem to be plenty of catching resources. At the same time, the Jays shouldn't be hard up when it comes to backups at first and third, nor are those defensive positions that should worry you as much as the middle infield and outfield.

But this is not to wholly dismiss the notion that was being floated. There is a lot of validity to the notion that the Jays should look to develop greater flexibility on their roster for next season. Take, for example, the Tampa Bay Rays. (I'll pause now for you to roll your eyes. Yes, the Rays again.)

The thing that I've come to admire greatly about Joe Maddon's management of the team is that there are few if any sacred cows. Players - some really good players - get shifted around the diamond and up and down the lineup according to the greatest need of the day. Ben Zobrist (140 OPS+) has played right field, short stop and second base and hit everywhere from first through sixth in the batting order. Jeff Keppinger (129 OPS+) has played first, second, third and DH and hit in every spot but leadoff.

And it goes on. Matt Joyce plays both left and right. Ryan Roberts shifts between second and third. Desmond Jennings flips around the lineup. Elliot Johnson and Sean Rodriguez fill in wherever they're needed. Even Evan Longoria's spot in the lineup isn't necessarily chiselled in granite, as he's occasionally batted third instead of cleanup when the situation dictated.

Unfortunately, the Jays' on-field management tends to lean towards the ideal that predictability is better for the players' psyche, and that players need to play very poorly to remove themselves from their assigned positions.

It's true that some experimentation has been undertaken this year. The Jays experimented with Edwin Encarnacion in left, and Brett Lawrie was moved to the leadoff spot. But if the Jays are going to maximize the output that they can get from their roster, they shouldn't be afraid to move players in such a way as to get the most out of their personel.

The best place to start such an approach might be José Bautista. Sure, he's stated his preference towards playing the outfield. But if Brett Lawrie were to launch himself into another injury next year, wouldn't it make more sense to slide Bautista to third if the next best offensive option in the minors is an outfielder? Wouldn't that be a good example for the Jays' putative leader to set for his teammates?

Beyond that admittedly narrow example, there will be a number of roster spots to be filled for next season, and the Jays should balance flexibility with production when identifying bench players who might end up in the lineup for extended periods.

For instance, players like Adam Lind and David Cooper provide offense that is insufficient at first base, and they don't have the ability to fill in elsewhere around the diamond. At the same time, bench players like Gomes, Omar Vizquel and Mike McCoy fill in defensively at a number of positions, but provided offensive contributions that were worse than negligible.

On the other hand, players like Keppinger, Trevor Plouffe, Martin Prado, or Daniel Murphy might not be transcendent superstars, but their ability to adapt to different roles and positions while maintaining a reasonable level of offensive performance make them ideal additions to their teams. Their value extends beyond their numbers, because they help to keep lesser players on the bench or in the minors.

Ultimately, they take playing time away from players like Yan Gomes. Which is a direction this team needs to take in the coming years.

Roster Smash Up Derby! Who Will Survive?

Give the paucity of offense (aside from that which is generated by the One Man Gang) and the number of bullpen oopsies in recent weeks, it seems a little difficult to make the case that there aren't enough spots on the Jays' roster to accommodate all the talent.

And yet...

By the time you start to get some of the walking wounded stumbling back from the 4077th (dated reference?) to the front lines, there are going to be choices that have to be made in terms of who comes back to Toronto, and who is provided with a bus ticket and a Gideon Bible for their breast pocket on their journey back to Sin City. Or worse.

In an effort to figure out who goes where and why and who'll be left blowing bubbles from their nose, we've isolated the fellas into separate and distinct street gangs. (When did this go from demolition derby to M*A*S*H* to The Warriors?) This is focused mostly on the short term, and not necessarily taking into account deadline deals. They are as follows:

The One Man Gang: José Bautista. He has the contract, the performance, and the fan adoration on his side. The things that would have to play out that would lead to his exit are too crazy to even ponder. Hey, was that a frog that just fell from the sky?

The Rock Solid Crew: Barring injury (which is no guarantee this year), these guys are certain to stick around through the end of the season. Led by starters Rickey Romero and Brandon Morrow, swingman Carlos Villaneuva and economical relievers Marc Rzepczynski (in spite of last night), Casey Janssen, Shawn Camp and Jason Frasor. Key position players Adam Lind and Yunel Escobar aren't going anywhere, while Rajai Davis is likely safe (no better CF option, and a two year deal). The Jays hold options on J.P. Arencibia, but he's performed well enough to merit inclusion here, and his backup, José Molina, fits the team's needs for the time being.

There. That's 13 players. Plus...

The Returning Wounded: John McDonald will make a beautiful dollar for this team so long as he wishes, so they'll make room for him as soon as he's ready. Jesse Litsch? Hmmm...Maybe? Dustin McGowan is a 2012 project, and Jesse Carlson will likely never sling another Frisbee for the Jays.

Let's assume that Litsch rejoins the team, and Johnny Mac's a given. That brings us to 15 players (Seven position players, three starters, four relievers plus Villaneuva.) Now let's add...

The Rising Sons: Gordie Dougie's arrival will come within the week, as soon as his hand recovers. At some point, the Jays are going to have to consider the return of Travis Snider. Eric Thames acquitted himself fairly well in his recall, though his return is unlikely until September. He may be joined by Adam Loewen, if only momentarily. Meanwhile, Brett "Squints" Cecil has allegedly regained some of his form, and may be knocking on the door to make his return. He may have to wait in line behind Brad Mills, who has pitched like a man all season long. David Cooper is a better PCL hitter than he is a real hitter. If the need arises for a bench outfielder, DeWayne Wise's name might come up as a quick solution.

So add Gordie Dougie, and hold the rest of these guys for now, and we're up to 16 players. Now's where the math gets tricky.

The Bubble Boys: Jo-Jo Reyes has pitched well in recent starts, but a regression over the next few weeks could see him back in peril. Kyle Drabek has to stop pitching around batters, or he's going to get to smell the dry air of the PCL real soon. The Jays could move Octavio Dotel, Jon Rauch or Frank Francisco at a moment's notice, though all three will likely stick around until close to the trade deadline, supposing they'll still return draft picks. Juan Rivera is Juan Rivera, but (like it or not), he's our Juan Rivera until something really odd happens, if it ever does. Aaron Hill probably doesn't belong here, but we'll put him here just because we have that sort of authority. And Corey Patterson has been a treat as of late, but the Jays really only have him as a placeholder, and should he ever become a pumpkin again, it'll be easy to part ways.

So: Let's add Jo-Jo, subtract Drabek (just for sport, just for now), and add the three former closers and hold Rivera and Hill. And for now, C-Patts can keep stealing bases so that the One Man Gang gets walked. Now we've got our insane eight man bullpen back, plus a four man rotation and three roster spots left.

The Fallen: Edwin Encarnacion is singing for his supper with every at bat. Same with Jayson Nix, who at least has some positional flexibility on his side, but he was the last man in and may end up being the first man out. Mike McCoy should probably just wear his 51's uniform, even when he's in Toronto, because he's never really a part of this team. Luis Perez has been a welcome addition to the bullpen, but he's to easy to return to Triple-A.

So the obvious answer here is to dump McCoy and Perez and hold on EE (which this team will likely do through the end of the year). Nix is the most disposable player should the need arise to add someone to the 40-man (like Wise), but until he's pushed, he'll stick around.

So add Drabek back to the rotation (if you must), and you've got a roster that pretty much looks like it does now: Too heavily built around the bullpen, without a lot of capacity to move players like Cecil and Snider back into the fold, and a bench that is populated by either defensive replacements or pinch hitters, but not a player who does both.

Which is to say: Enjoy the recall of Brett Lawrie, because there's not a lot more of that coming between now and September.

So, where we at?

(....other than in deep shit with the Tao when he see the grammatical construction of the post title....)

Although nothing is ever certain, there were a few areas of this year's Blue Jays squad that, heading into camp, seemed fairly easy to predict. Funny how that works. Turns out those areas of "certainty" are drawing more questions than answers as the preseason crawls on. But maybe that's just me. Probably just me. But let's discuss, shall we? I mean, we're here anyway.... let's just.

The Rotation
Ricky Romero, Brandon Morrow, Brett Cecil, Kyle Drabek, Marc Rzepczynski. Bingo bango bongo. Done. Maybe three weeks ago.....

The new "big 3" are certainly set. But the 4/5 spots in the rotation? Wiiiiide open, it seems. Nothing but a personal vibe here, but all of a sudden, it seems like the phenom Drabek is no longer a lock to "head north" with the big club, and Rzepczynski seems more likely to be on the outside looking in with regards to the rotation. And why? New skip John Farrell seems enamored with Jesse Litsch (which, for this guy anyway, isn't the worst thing... LET HIM PLAY! LET HIM PLAY!), and out-of-options (and Tao fave) Jo Jo Reyes is pitching well enough that the "option play" might give him an edge.

Keeping in mind..... come June 1 (or whenever the magical arb cutoff date is), the spring battle will likely be long forgotten as Drabek (for sure) and Zach Stewart (for maybe?) will lay claim to the jobs if they haven't already.

All of this to say.... depth is good.

Brett Lawrie
Now, this is going to come across as an endorsement for Lawrie to skip AAA altogether and start the season in the homeland.....and it's not, necessarily..... but at what point does the usual spring hype give way to "maybe this kid really is ready" conversation?

Oh, I know all the usual caveats apply. Gabe Gross. Simon Pond. Chuckle chuckle snicker snicker. But wasn't the primary concern with Lawrie his conversion to 3rd base and questions on his defensive ability in general? And haven't all those actually there been saying how remarkably strong he's looked fielding the position? And if this club really is gearing towards actually trying to contend in 2012.... wouldn't it be better to get the kid a year of experience leading up?

Of course, it's not that simple. There's the service clock issue (don't you wish we didn't ever have to take "service clock" into consideration? Because I know I'm sick to death of it. But that's another post...). There's the fact he's probably not really ready to handle the grind of a full major league season. There's probably a multitude of additional reasons that space restrictions just will not allow me to flush out (nothing at all to do with being lazy, friends).

So how about this. How about we all agree - you too, AA - that Lawrie starts the season in Vegas under the guise of "seasoning", and once the arb date passes, and assuming Lawrie is indeed raking and not butchering the position defensively, he's recalled and handed the keys to the hot corner indefinitely. Seems obvious and logical, right? Right. Done and done.

Juan Rivera
Serious question: is he really part of the team? And if he is, why can't I fathom that? And if the club is really in need of left-handed thunder, can't we just give the job to Eric Thames and see where that takes us? If we can't have the Stewart bone, and if we have to wait out Lawrie, can't we have this?

OK, not really.

(But would you be against it necessarily? In a platoon at least? C'mon.)

The Bullpen
Oh boy. I'm not ready to even attempt to sort this one out yet. Maybe next weekend. Until then.....

The meaning in the marginalia

We'll confess that this past year has been a challenge for us a a blogger.

(And oh, can you not feel our woe.)

Life has become busier at home and work, and we struggle to make the time to really think through the state of affairs with the Jays. And when we do manage to find the time, we invariably find that one of the other exceptional Jays bloggers or beat writers has beaten us to the punch, so the most profound thing we muster up is an echoing of their work with an in-joke tossed in, or some indefensible position taken somewhat out of sport.

Which might be why we've been festishizing the marginal moves and minor league signings lately. These minor league signings and scrap heap pillaging are probably not that interesting, nor will they necessarily determine much about the outcome of the coming season. And the chances that they result in the acquisition of a productive part of this one-day-everything-is-gonna-sound-like-a-rhapsody playoff(!!!1) contender is minute in the extreme.

And yet: Scott Downs was one of those acquisitions. And Jose Bautista was scraped from the alleged bottom of someone else's barrel. So you can never completely write these things off.

But moreover: Few care enough about these signings to pay them much mind. Which offers us a full field of new snow to march through, leaving our own footsteps.

(This whole emphasis on the obscure for the sake of differentiating one's self is sorta the equivalent of buying that Mary Lou Lord record in 1992. Well, maybe sorta.)

Take the Wilfredo Ledezma signing.

Sure, he's got an ERA in the mid-fives, and as a bullpen southpaw, you'd probably want as a bare minimum to find a guy who does better against lefties than righties (which Wil can't claim). Still, there's this drive within us to try to find the positive nugget that can make us believe that somehow, a guy in his 30th year with eight Major League seasons under his belt has something within him that has yet to be mined successfully.

Seriously, this is the conversation we're having internally at 5 AM.

Maybe there's more light to be found in the signing of Chad Cordero. He was once an Expo, an All-Star, and wore the Scarlet "C" as a team's undisputed closer. (128 saves! Saves saves saves!) That was long ago, mind you: Cordero's All-Star appearance came in a year when the Jays representatives were Shea Hillenbrand and B.J. Ryan.

Still, Cordero's two-plus year hiatus due to a labrum injury didn't seem to have bit into his velocity that much. In his best days, Cordero heaved up fastballs in the 89 MPH range, where last year in his limited return with the Mariners, he was clocking in on average at about 87.9 MPH. With a full season of reasonable health, we can envision a scenario where he gets that little bit of jump back and finds the strike zone with more regularity.

Actually, we don't really see these things happening. But we still want to put our chips down on those eventualities, if only to give us a reason to keep watching the wheel turn.

Rosterbatory ramblings

Hey, rosterbation!

Believe it or not, we didn't have much in mind when we casually tossed out a notion on Twitter that Kyle Drabek might not make a return trip to Toronto as a Blue Jay. But now that we've seen what a reaction that we received, it strikes us that stirring the pot is kinda fun. Move over, Damien Cox and Steve Simmons! There's a new coy/cynical/smug shit-disturber in town! Idle speculation kills more trees!!!1

We can't precisely recall who had put the notion in our head that he might be in play, but given what happened with Bret Wallace ("Where's Wallace, String! Where's Wallace!") this summer, we wouldn't be surprised to see the Jays most marketable trade chip move in the offseason.

Which is not to say that we have any sense of what the Jays would be looking for, or who they might target, or what their offseason agenda might be. Although if the Gose trade is anything to go on, we could see AA moving today's future front of the rotation arm for tomorrow's future ace, dealing a 2011 promise for a stronger 2013. (In theory.)

We actually don't think that moving Drabek is the smartest move for the Jays this winter, and we'd prefer to see him as the fourth or fifth starter next season. But the most positive note that we can take out of this hot stove wankery is that the Jays have plenty of good options next season to help build a stronger rotation.

A rotation which, it should be noted, shaved .36 off its starters' ERA this year, even without what's-his-ginger-beard there to lead the way.