Playing Nice With Others, Part II

Last year, Bryan O'Connor at the Replacement Level Baseball Blog asked me and three other bloggers who follow AL East teams to submit a little preview of the season as part of a collaborative effort to get a handle on the division as a whole.  We're doing it again, so I hope you don't mind if I use this space to take a short break from Tao's commendable 37 Jays in 37-ish Days series to take a look from 30,000 feet instead.  Zip over to Bryan's blog for the whole thing in the days ahead.  In the meantime, here's what I came up with for the Jays in 2013.


What is your team’s ceiling? What has to go right for your team to win the AL East?

It's an odd feeling for Blue Jays fans to consider the ceiling of their chosen team and realize that for the first time in, oh, 15 years, that ceiling is a season of 90 to 95 wins and an American League East title.  It's an odd feeling because for the last decade and a half, the best fans could do was hope for a bunch of things to break just right, and if they did, then maybe -- MAYBE -- the team could sniff the post-season.

You have to live north of the border to have a real sense of just how different things feel about the 2013 Blue Jays.  Sportscasts and talk radio shows throughout the fall and winter are usually dominated by hockey, whether it's the NHL or lower-level junior competition.  Baseball is the afterthought.  I don't need to recap all the acquisitions and departures for you, but not only did Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos completely revamp the major league roster this off-season; he did it in a way that made a largely dormant fan base sit up and take notice.  People are paying attention to the Blue Jays again in Canada.

Sure, during the 20-year dry spell we've endured, Jays fans have seen big names come to town before -- Roger Clemens, AJ Burnett, Frank Thomas -- but it never felt like it was part of a real plan to solidify the major league roster in a way that was intended to do anything more than just get some more butts in seats for a while.  This off-season has appeared to be more of the culmination of a plan, such as it is, than previous efforts that seemed a lot more like flying by the seat of our pants.

Yet for all the talk about how Anthopoulos made his move for 2013 sensing weakness in New York, Boston, Tampa and Baltimore, he's been the first to tell anyone who ascribes that motive to him that they're off base.  The East will be an enormously tough division in which to put up a 90 win season.

To do it, the Jays have to stay healthy.  This seems obvious to the point of cliché , but Jays fans are pretty neurotic when it comes to injury after watching 60% of the starting rotation go down in a five day period last summer, watching a rogue's gallery of relievers parade through the bullpen and losing the likes of Jose Bautista and Brett Lawrie for extended periods.  But health won't be enough.  They can't afford for many players on the roster to take steps backward.  A team that gets the best of R.A Dickey, Josh Johnson, Jose Reyes, and Melky Cabrera, just to name a few, will be competitive.  A repeat power performance from Edwin Encarnacion and another MVP-caliber season from Jose Bautista would help immensely too.  But none of those things are certain.  They have to play the games, they tell me, and you don't get any pennants for winning the off-season.

What’s the floor for your team this season? What has to go wrong for them to miss the playoffs?

Perhaps it's 20 years of having cautious pessimism drilled into me when it comes to them, but despite the hype, there actually doesn't seem like that much at all that has to go wrong for the Jays to miss the playoffs and hit a floor of another 4th place finish.  Some of that relates to the quality of the division, but some of it relates to lingering questions about the team.

There's a flamethrowing bullpen -- made up of a lot of guys who've only been successful for extremely short periods, if at all.

There's precocious talent in Colby Rasmus and Brett Lawrie -- talent that hasn't burst onto the scene the way many would have hoped in their respective tenures of fewer than two full seasons in Toronto.

There's a bit of pop in the DH and catcher positions with Adam Lind and J.P. Arencibia -- but serious concerns about their ability to get on base.

There's a core of upper-tier talent on the roster -- a core that's barely played together, to say nothing of the fact that many members of that core haven't played in the American League at all.

Negative outcomes  in more than a couple of those little dichotomies could make all the pre-season love for the Blue Jays turn sour in a big hurry.

How do you see the division playing out? Is there one team you’re particularly afraid of?

This might be the first time in a long time that I've actually been afraid of the Yankees, Red Sox or Rays, because I'm far more accustomed to being resigned to their superiority and anticipating tough games and a losing record against them.  Now I'm scared of all of them (maybe even the Orioles) because I feel like they can very easily take a sledgehammer to my hopes and dreams of post-season baseball whenever they meet for a series.

But spring is when we're supposed to be optimistic, so I'll make my prediction of a first place finish for the Blue Jays in 2013, with 93 wins.  I'll pick the Yankees second, the Rays third, Red Sox fourth and Orioles fifth.  Fortune favours the bold.

Friday Look-Ahead and Look-Behind

I’m feeling a bit guilty after having missed my bloggerly duties on the weekend. Life gets in the way sometimes. As penance, though, I’m back with a Friday post, in which I celebrate, lament, and generally overreact to a Blue Jays series loss to the Tampa Bay Rays, and look ahead to the next 3-game set in Kansas City.

Beating the Best

It’s disappointing to drop two of three to a division rival. The unbalanced schedule makes damn certain that division records matter when it comes to contending for the post season. In the AL East, the expectation should always be that over the course of a season, the Yankees, Rays and Red Sox are mostly going to kick the holy hell out of non-division teams, eliminating a potential opening for a team like Toronto to rack up non-division wins themselves, in a bid to make up for a weaker record against division rivals. But it is just April, and the Jays will have plenty of opportunities to prove their mettle against the Beasts of the East.

Late Meltdowns

Giving less cause for optimism, though, is the way the late innings in the two losses to Tampa Bay descended into something halfway between comic farce and violent chaos. (Okay, maybe that’s an exaggeration.) I do believe that the bullpen is improved from last year, and will be seen as a team strength by the time 162 games are in the books. But if you’re the kind who doubts the relief corps can effectively hold down the fort when leading games, watching them inflate Luke Scott’s RBI totals in back to back games where the team is trailing late is probably not helping much with your faith and rationality. Games that were at least within reach were quickly and emphatically turned into routs. I’m not saying the Jays would have come back in the ninth innings from 4 and 3 runs behind, respectively, but you’d still like to see your mop-up guys actually mop up, not spill another bucket of spoiled mayonnaise onto the kitchen floor on top of the existing mess.

Coming Up

Note - I had erroneously posted that the KC series was three games instead of four, hence the strikethroughs and corrections below. Thanks to the anonymous commenter who pointed out how badly I read my pocket schedule.

Four Five things apparently coming up this weekend: three (3) four (4) away games against the Kansas City Royals, and one (1) 21-year-old starter who has pitched 31.2 innings above A ball. Word is that despite the Tao’s metaphysical assurance that Jesse Chavez would get the call from Vegas to fill in the fifth starter spot tomorrow, it’s current New Hampshire Fisher Cat Drew Hutchison who will toe the rubber at Kauffman Stadium. Hutchison has picked up about where he left off last year at AA, although in his three starts, his strikeout numbers are down from the gaudy 12.5 K/9 he put up in an equally small sample last year. Over his minor league career, he’s been more than a strikeout-per-inning guy, and there is understandable excitement about seeing him make his big league debut.

The Alex Anthopoulos era in Toronto has been characterized by enthusiasm for the young, high-ceiling arms in the system. The Lansing Lugnuts at low-A have an embarrassment of riches right now, and if you’ve checked in on the reports about Noah Syndergaard, Justin Nicolino, and Aaron Sanchez, you may need to stay sitting down for a little while if you know what I mean. With the arrival of Henderson Alvarez last season, the apparent settling-in of Kyle Drabek this year, and now Hutchison’s call-up, we’re starting to see some “green shoots” at the major league level too.

The Jays have nine ten games coming up against Kansas City, Baltimore, and Seattle – before they have to face Texas and the Los Angeles of Anaheim Angels of California. One game at a time and all that, but damn, I’d like to see them at 13-8 14-8 when Rangers roll into Skydome. Here we go now *clap clap*.

Playing Nice With Others

Photo credit to Daylife, because it was a picture I could find with the Jays in first place.

Our blogging pal the Tao has been doing yeoman's work with his 30 Jays in 30 Days series, and I've done my best to add an off-field dimension to the body of work during my weekend time. But I got an email from a chap named Bryan O’Connor, who puts together the Replacement Level Baseball Blog, asking me to contribute a bit of a preview of the Blue Jays as part of a collaboration between him and some other bloggers who follow and write about AL East teams. I thought I'd press pause on the Jays previews to look at the team and a division as a whole. Below is my submission. You'll be able to find all the stuff on Bryan's site, and I'd encourage you to visit.

What is your team's ceiling in 2012? What has to go right for them to win the AL East?

“Ceiling” is a funny word to apply to a team, especially during Spring Training and the early season, when we all cling to the mythology about every team having a shot at the division and the World Series and other untold glories. Reality eventually gets in the way for teams like the Blue Jays, who play in what is obviously the toughest division in baseball and probably the toughest division in professional sports.

There’s no doubt the Jays have improved, although there seems to be a tendency to discount how much they’ve improved after a quiet offseason. They didn’t add Prince Fielder (like a lot of fans wanted), or Yu Darvish (like a lot of fans were led to believe they would). They picked up what should be some helpful bullpen pieces in Francisco Cordero, Darren Oliver and Sergio Santos, and reacquired Jason Frasor to stabilize the relief corps as well. They said goodbye to Frank Francisco, Jon Rauch and Shawn Camp. On the offensive side, they picked up just some marginal pieces in Ben Francisco (thereby maintaining their Francisco quotient as mandated by Canadian law) and Jeff “Worst Hitter in Baseball Hahaha I Can’t Believe Someone Gave Him a Job” Mathis as backups.

So yeah, nothing earth-shattering was added between October and March. But don’t forget that the 2011 Blue Jays gave regular playing time to the likes of Corey Patterson, Juan Rivera, and Jayson Nix – useful players in certain situations, but not the kind that are going to help you cut the mustard against the Yankees, Rays and Red Sox. Those guys are gone, and the 2012 edition will feature full seasons of Brett Lawrie, Kelly Johnson, Colby Rasmus and one of Eric Thames or Travis Snider. Every one of them is (or should be) an upgrade over what was in place last year.

Still, a lot has to go right for the Blue Jays to win the Al East. Jose Bautista, arguably the best hitter in baseball, needs to have another season like 2010 and 2011. Lawrie, Rasmus and Johnson will need to perform better than the various occupants of their positions for most of 2011. I don’t think that will be all that difficult. Where the rubber meets the road for the Jays is in the starting rotation. Ricky Romero looks more like the real deal with every passing season, and expectations are high for Brandon Morrow to finally see his results match his excellent peripherals. After those two, though, it’s a lot of hope. Henderson Alvarez impressed during his ten games last season, but he really only has two pitches. Brett Cecil has arrived to camp in the much-ballyhooed “best shape of his life” but questions about his fastball velocity remain troublesome, and he spent much of last season in AAA-ball. Dustin McGowan could be an amazing and inspirational comeback story; or he could pitch 40 innings and never be heard from again. Kyle Drabek could begin putting it together, finding the strike zone and showing the world why he was the prized prospect in the Roy Halladay trade, but he’s just as likely to start the season in the minors.

Rumours (with a “u”!) abound about Alex Anthopoulos seeking out another arm to add to the mix before the season. I wouldn’t discount the possibility of that happening; as mentioned above, Anthopoulos has shown a talent for acquiring pieces during the course of the season, including at the trade deadline. In fact, if this team finds itself legitimately in the hunt for a playoff spot, it has the depth in the minor league system (with a near-consensus rank of second in all of baseball) to move prospects for additional talent this year. That’s the sort of deal that could really raise the ceiling for the team.


What is your team's floor in 2012? What has to go wrong for them to miss the playoffs (even with a ridiculous second Wild Card)?

Almost all you need to know about the Jays and the AL East, quite frankly, is that the floor that many see for the team is the ceiling that many others see: fourth place. The Yankees are still going to be awfully good. So are the Rays. And Boston was the best team in baseball for about half of last season (with such intense focus on the team’s September troubles, people forget just how good they were before that). The Jays need to overtake one of those three teams to even glimpse a one-game play-in against another wild card team. But with the Angels and Rangers in the West getting even better, there are no guarantees a third-place finish in the East gets you anything but a warm, fuzzy feeling heading into October.

Really, not much needs to go wrong for the Jays to miss the playoffs. That’s the status quo. I expect the team to be better than they were last year – say, 86 wins? – but I don’t think that would be enough to keep them playing into the fall.

In 1 to 5 paragraphs, how do you see the division playing out this year? Is there a team you're particularly afraid of?

I’ve mostly answered that above. I expect that by the end of September, some combination of the Rays, Yankees and Red Sox will be in a 1-2-3 position in the East. Really going out on a limb, I know.

But… but… players get injured. Players have breakthrough seasons. Players go into terrible slumps. I think the Jays have a superior lineup to most teams in the American League. I think they can hang with the Yankees, Red Sox, Rays, Tigers, Angels and Rangers – maybe not well enough to get to 90+ wins if all teams field run their best out there every inning, but well enough to be the sort of team that you don’t want to see coming into town for a four-game set when you’re in the running for a playoff position yourself. And you never know, maybe this is the year the Jays are the ones in the running.

Cables and mea culpas from Down Under

So, I guess we couldn't have been much more wrong about Cliff Lee's mindset, huh?

Rather than showing Roy Halladay and his bride who's who and what's what, we're presuming that Lee will soon make his way to Doc and Brandy's to fry up a mess o' fish that his new rotation pal has just caught.

Which just goes to show you that the rest of the world isn't nearly as petty and mean spirited as yours truly. And bully for that.

Other stuff from the other side of the world - Oprah!
We're here in Sydney as Oprah has brought her roadshow to town. And while we haven't managed to meet up with "O" yet, we did bump into her gal pal Gayle King in the markets at The Rocks, not far from the Opera House. And had we been more brave, we would have struck up a conversation with her and the burly man walking with her. Instead, we just snapped photos of her for future conversation starters.

(Incidentally, Gayle literally bumped into me, and I've gotta say that she's a bit of a bruiser. Like, we've gotta hope that after all the BeestMode workouts that the Jays are engaged in this offseason, they come back with big burly arms like hers.)

Searching for baseball news in Australia
There's precious little information to be found about our beloved game down here, so the Jays could trade Travis Snider to the Yankees for a pine tar rag, and we wouldn't hear about it until we get back. Which drives us a little crazy.

Also, we have yet to see Graeme Lloyd or Luke Prokopec down here. If we do, we plan on buying Lloyd a tasty beverage, and punching Prokopec in his Aussie balls. (Ok, probably not. But that's okay, because the chances of actually seeing them are pretty remote.)

A consoling word for you all before we slip back off the grid
As we were leaving the country, the news of Carl Crawford's signing hit and we heard Jays fans start to throw up their hands in frustration. Certainly, that signing combined with the Adrian Gonzalez deal and whatever is sure to come from the Yankees is enough to make you fret over the seeming impossibility of ever getting over and succeeding with such insurmountable behemoths there to tamp out every little ember that begins to glow from our side.

If we could offer one word of solace, it's this: We think that Alex and the new administration are demonstrating a commendable patience in the face of these developments, and that this team is being built with a process that will allow them to consistently have a full pipeline and a strong Major League team. And while it's never going to be as easy as winning any of the other divisions, it will be infinitely sweeter when the time comes and this team makes it to the next level.

(Is it just us, or did we just write the marketing line for a pro-abstinence group right there? Yikes.)

One thing that we'll have to recognize, though, as the Jays proceed through 2011 and beyond in trying to compete with the Yanks and Sox (and possibly still the Rays) is that we have to recalibrate our sense of what constitutes a meaningful game. We've been locked into this old notion of "games whilst in contention against other contenders in September" as what we consider full of meaning. But given the dogfight that we're going to see in the next few seasons, we think that meaningful games in the AL East are going to start much earlier in the season, and we have a fair bit of confidence that the Jays will be playing those games this June, July and August against those opponents.

And how fun is that going to be.

(Mind you, this might all just be the heat stroke talking.)

The Blue Jays are the Greatest Show on Artificial Turf

If there's one thing you can say about the 2010 edition of the Toronto Blue Jays, it's that they are rarely boring. This year's team is so smashingly entertaining that even those who croaked on about how awful they were going to be this year are starting to come around and feel the joy in watching the awesome display of power.

(And yeah, that's you Blair. Welcome to the bright side.)

At present, the Jays lead the Majors in homers by 19 over the Red Sox (88-69), and also lead the collective circuits in doubles (123), slugging (.471), and total bases (836). They sit just two behind the Yankees in RsBI with 264, followed by the Red Sox (260) and Rays (255). Which we mention mostly to remind us all that a third or fourth place finish in the AL East is not like any other division's third/fourth place finish, no matter how much Bobcat McCown spits into his mic in absolute terms about the failures of this team.

So what's our point? Whatever happens in the next week and a half with the series against the Yankees and Rays, we're reasonably sure that the Jays aren't going to go quietly or lose ugly. They are going to compete through all nine innings, and have a puncher's chance of making up ground on their divisional rivals this week.

Did you catch that last bit? We spoke of gaining ground in the race. As if we were speaking about these all-too-fetishized "meaningful games" that people groan on about endlessly. Because that seems to be the gripe of most of the gasbag radio hosts and fatuous general sporting columnists: That the Jays don't play those impactful and important games in September. That none of this stuff matters now, and that we should be suspicious about the early success because the only thing that matters is the last month...or three weeks, or two weeks, or two days, or third-of an inning of the season.

Which has led us to this minor epiphany: The Bruce Arthurs and Dave Perkins and Steve Simmons of the world are a bunch of pasty tourists when it comes to this beautiful game, and we really shouldn't pay them any hommage by listening for even a nanosecond to their all-too-knowing postulations in the preseason about how awful and dreadful the outlook is for the Jays, and why fans should be wary of the team in the here and now. Just because the only part of the season to which they pay any mind is the last bit, it doesn't mean that there isn't fun to be had in the early going.

Because this is supposed to be fun, right? This is baseball. That's why we love it.

We suspect that many of the empty seats in the RC/SkyDome are filled with the ghosts of casual fans who have bought into the steaming pantloads flung by the cynical opportunists who eat up space in the newspaper and on the talk shows. But what we really hope that people recognize over the next few weeks is that they are missing a great season. Maybe the greatest season that they've had in more than a decade. Really.

And this isn't at all like last year's team, who got off to a quick start by beating up on some weaker competition. This is a team that has been in almost every game this season, and has the crushing offensive power to get themselves back into games in a hurry.

Maybe you're the type who can shrug off another JoBau JomeRun, or another extra base hit from Alex Gonzalez, or a screamer off the bat of Vernon Wells. Maybe you can write those off as a fluke and set yourself up to walk ten feet behind the bandwagon, so that no one mistakes you for a sucker should the team falter. But where's the joy in that? Isn't it better to let yourself go and fall for a team once in a while?

We're a third of the way through, and the Jays are just a game back of the Yankees, four and a half back of the Rays and sporting the sixth-best record in all of MLB. They are setting themselves up to be in the Wild Card race, which probably only begins in July, but you can at least consider these first eight weeks the preliminary heats.

And thus far, it's been pretty frickin' fun to watch.

Bring it on

For some, the cycle of observing the Blue Jays goes a little something like this: If they are winning, people point out the weakness of their opponents, or the fact that they have yet to really face the big boys. If they lose, it's because they just flat out suck.

So with the next 12 games on the schedule lined up against their AL East rivals in Baltimore, New York and Tampa, some of those perpetual naysayers have pegged this as "The Test" of the team. This will provide proof as to whether if they are a team that could win 90 games and stick with the Yankees and Rays through the summer, or if they are the team that most had figured would spend more time scraping the bottom and battling the O's to stay out of the basement.

But here's the thing: We don't think that these next two weeks are going to actually prove anything. If the Jays come out of those series under .500, it doesn't mean that they should pack up their tents and call it a season. Nor should we start putting the prosecco on ice in anticipation of championship glory if they come through this stretch successfully.

Besides which, we suspect that if the Jays were to run wild like the Hulkster through the Yanks and Rays, it still wouldn't satisfy the naysayers. We're sure there would be another stretch of games that they would propose to be "defining" a week or so down the road. And if the Jays go into the final week of the season still in contention, someone somewhere is going to ask the proverbial question: "Are the Jays for real?"

If being proven right is your goal as a cynical sports fan, you'll invariably get rewarded for your pose. But we're rooting for the Jays to make the cynics squirm for as long as they can this summer.

Because "told you so" would be so much easier to hear in late September.

It's the AL East, son

And now, this season gets serious. Over the next six days, the Jays get their first real taste of the AL East (because we're already saying that Baltimore doesn't count.)

If you want games that "matter", then take heed: These are the games that matter.

Last year, the Jays' schedule against the Only Division That Matters was almost entirely backloaded, with their first meeting against the Unholy Trinity coming on May 19 in Boston. And it was pretty much on that evening in Boston that the then unstoppable Blue Jay machine was pretty much stopped in their tracks.

(And to be honest with you, we're not sure that we've recovered yet from that Tim Wakefield junk-ball-palooza, after which the Jays hitters went into such a prolonged slumber that some of them may have had their organs harvested without waking up. Which would go a long way towards explaining Lyle Overbay.)

Make no mistake: These are the games that matter, and this is where the fortunes of this team are determined. The Jays were 20 games under .500 against those three teams (and an even .500 with the Orioles, if that matters), so effectively it was that significant chunk of the schedule that sunk any hopes of respectability. Conversely, the Jays were 49-41 outside of their division. Which is kinda respectable, even for a team that people wrote off as a disaster.

(Go ahead. Sing it with us, because you know the words: "My Kingdom for a Balanced Schedule!")

Let's get this party started right
So if this wholly inequitable portion of the schedule has to get started somehow, we can't think of a much better pitching matchup than tonight's. The Dreamboat himself, Brett Cecil, will take the mound in the air-conditioned tomb of Tampa versus the dastardly Matt Garza, who owns the Jays (6-3, 1.70 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in 10 career starts against the Jays.) And still, we'd rather face him than Wakefield.

(If only we weren't going to be blind drunk by the time the first pitch is tossed.)

Some weekends suck more than others

If there's a small blessing to this past weekend, it's that we spent more time listening to the games and less time actually watching them. We consider the lack of visuals a small mercy that we granted upon ourselves. It left us able to complete the picture of the weekend sweep in a way that was far more satisfying and relaxing and pleasant.

In our mind's eye, a packed house watched as the Jays, a team comprised entirely of unicorns and My Little Ponies, fought valiantly against the Dark Angels and their evil machinations. And because of their equine nature and the lack of opposable thumbs, it was no wonder that the Blue Jays were left to flail away at the plate, striking out 19 times over the three games.

Now that our ether rag is dry, and we're left to piece the weekend back together in the cold grey light of a Monday afternoon, we're not certain what to read into the weekend. The Jays didn't really get blown out in any of the games, but they certainly never seemed to be poised to win any of them either. They continued to get contributions from Vernon Wells, Adam Lind and Alex Gonzalez, but much of the lineup is still scuffling along. Shaun Marcum and Ricky Romero respectively put up decent and excellent pitching performances, but putative number two starter Brian Tallet served up another subpar performance.

And so maybe this is the way that this season is going to play out: The good parts will be there, but will be outweighed by the bad, and eventually, you slip backwards into the mediocre showing that everyone expected.

(Go with us on this one, because we are trying to be the optimists who find arguments for how this team could go over .500 this year. If what we've just said seems completely obvious to you, it's because you were ready to believe it before we were. We're still sounding out the thoughts phonetically to ourselves and pretending that we don't understand the meaning.)

On Tallet and Tightness
Apparently, Brian Tallet's arm has tightness in it. Which is appropriate, we think, because our sphincter has had some significant tightness in it every time he takes the mound, if you know what we mean.

(Actually, it might not be "tightness". We're seeing "soreness" and "stiffness" in the reports. Which is appropriate, we think, considering the soreness of our sphincters after taking a beating from the opponent's stiffness each time Tallet takes the mound.)

My kingdom for a balance schedule
We've been dragging our feet on writing a piece on the bogus realignment horse-hockey that was tossed around in the winter, but we promise that we'll get right to that. Honest. In our mind, it's already the best thing that we're ever written, should we ever get around to writing it.

In the interim, we recommend a read through Neate Sager's typically well-informed and well-reasoned jaunt through the issues with the schedule, and why some of us should ignore the buffoonery of certain sportswriters.

A thought on buffoonery
After having had some fun with The Hack at Sun-Times, here's what we've come to believe about this whole situation: There are certain American sportswriters who go out of their way to make the situation in Toronto analogous to Montreal, or who like to hold Canada up for ridicule as a place where top level baseball should not and cannot succeed. But their existence is payback for the innumerable cases where Canadian hockey writers dump on the attendance and profitability of teams in American cities.

So maybe the point is that we should all stop being so fucking smug, and stop making arguments to pull teams out of other fans' markets. Mmmkay?

Happy Canada Day to a depressed Blue Jay Nation

A couple of lifeless games against an AL East opponent has us wondering: How bad could this season get? The surprising hot start that saw the Blue Jays in contention in the first two months of the season is becoming increasingly faint in the rearview mirror, and the reality that the Jays are 10 games below .500 since May 19 has started to sink in.

Now, as we turn over the calendar page and look ahead to a brutal month of July, the prospects for the rest of the season are starting to look dire for the rest of the 2009 season. Moreover, we can't even remember the last "Pennant!!!1" or "Playoffs!!!1" in the comment section.

Nothing is ever easy in the AL East, and now that the Jays have squandered away their early season advantage, they'll have a rough time climbing back over that mountain.

Cripes. We need a vacation.

Say, that reminds us...
We're taking a vacation. We'll be off in the wilds of Northern Ontario for a few weeks without access to the interwebs or Twitter or (gasp!) television. So the most we can hope for is to catch some games on the radio, provided we can find a signal that reaches that far.

Otherwise, we'll be keeping abreast of Blue Jays news via the boxscores. Which could actually be fun.

This is actually the longest that we're going to be away from the blog since we started it, so we're not sure how long we'll be able to make it before running away from the in-laws and hitch hiking to the nearest internet café. We give ourselves at least a couple of hours.

The Ack, fresh off his recent trip to Toronto, will be stepping in to pick up the slack and keep the bloggage flowing until we're back on July 12. Treat him well, and enjoy the respite from our pedantic daily rantings, and we promise to come back refreshed and renewed and ready to face down the dog days of the season.

Cito's lineup madness continues...for the better?
The National Post's John Lott is reporting this morning that Vernon Wells will sport his spiffy Canada Day gear whilst riding the pines this afternoon. More impressively, Adam Lind in moving into the third spot in the order and Lyle Overbay will hit fifth. We wouldn't have guessed this in April, but Lind-Rolen-Overbay is the best looking heart of the order we've seen all year. Bring it on!

After hearing Jerry Crasnick note on the Drunk Jays Fans podcast that Wells got a shot in his wrist during spring training, it has us wondering if the struggling slugger is (for the second time in three years) playing like ten pound of shit in a five pound bag because he's trying to play through injuries.

If Vernon is hurt, then seriously, sit the man down. For a week. Or two. Whatever it takes.

On that subject, Fangraphs' Canadian connection Marc Hulet made the point yesterday that Cito is running his players into the ground, leading to diminished returns in recent weeks. While the numbers he presents most compellingly make the case that Marco Scutaro and Alex Rios might be wearing down, it's not totally clear that the same case can be made across the board.

But again: We defer to the guys who know the numbers, because we're much better with words. We were born to be a sophist.

Canada Day with the 1996 Blue Jays
Via Maclean's Jaime Weinman, here's a weird nugget: the Blue Jays lip-synching to a Canadianized version of "This Land is Your Land". Enjoy, and we'll see you back here soon.

The Rays are scary

Last night's game scared the crap out of us.

As much as we'd like to imagine that the Jays were underestimated coming into the season and that the Rays were going to turn back into pumpkins at any moment, the truth is that the Greater Tampa-St. Petersburg area squad is really good. And not just a flash in a moment type of good, but for the foreseeable future.

And aside from the notion of having to try to keep pace with the Rays in the AL East standings, the Jays still have a whole heap of games against them (and the Red Sox and the Yankees) between now and the end of the season. And while we wouldn't say that this is the case at present, it's entirely possible that the Jays could have assembled the fourth best team in all of baseball in the coming years and still finish fourth in their division.

Cripes.

About last night
If we had to use one word to describe the Jays performance last night, it is "lifeless". It's the sort of game that you would imagine a team playing after getting back home after a long road trip, but the Jays had the benefit of sleeping in their own beds last night.

Roy Halladay didn't exactly look like vintage Doc over his six innings of work, which isn't to say he pitched poorly. He got deep into a few counts and walked a couple of batters, but still managed seven strikeouts. We're guessing that he didn't turn it up to 11 in his first start after his DL stint, and that he'll be even better next time out.

Not that anyone should be hanging last night's loss on Halladay. Jeff Niemann has been a serviceable pitcher this season and had a good game last night, but there were a handful of at bats - and not just by Vernon Wells - where the Jays kept their bats on their shoulders and let the young Tampa hurler take it to them.

We hope they felt some shame, got a good rest last night, and that they plan to bring some frickin' noise tonight.

We've got the funk...

...and sadly, it's not in any way a good, Clintonian funk.

It is more of an autumnal funk borne of three weeks of solid misery. The economy is in the shitter. The federal election robbed us of our will to engage politically. The days are getting shorter. The nights are getting colder. We're getting older. Responsibilities are piled on while the few remaining hopes and dreams of our youth fall like the rusted foliage.

And all the while, as we turn to our second great love in life for solace and comfort, we watch the Tampa Bay Rays and think to ourselves: They're just going to get better, aren't they? And the Jays are going to be a little bit worse. If not a lot worse.

Watching the Rays young rotation, which will only become deeper with the addition of David Price next year, we're left with a gnawing feeling that Roy Halladay and the rag-tag band of brigands that the Jays run out to the mound next season are going to have their work cut out for them.

And to make matters worse, the Yankees and Red Sox are sure to retool and rebuild following years that fell short of expectations.

Then there's the whole matter of the 82 cent dollar, which will dig into any potential payroll increases that may have been forthcoming.

It's a shite state of affairs, and six Paul Beestons wouldn't make any difference at this point.

End the chapter, turn the page

Well, that's that. Another season, come and gone.

It's hard for us to know what to make of the 2008 season at this point. We spent so long holding out hope this year that we've barely had time to really figure out whether if we think this is a good season or a disappointment. At this point, it kinda feels like a bit of both.

In the end, the Jays win 86 games (yay!) and are 10 games over .500 for the season (hooray!), and they play 14 games over .500 under Cito Gaston (woohoo!).

But then again, they end up fourth in the AL East, which will certainly provide almsot endless fodder for the superficial and superior media gasbags in Toronto over the winter. If someone deserves to be pilloried in the media about this year's performance, then fine...but it sticks in our craw that media types who could give a shit about baseball and are too lazy to examine the context are going to toss off pejoratives like "failure" or "mediocre" in passing, as they hurry through their non-analysis to talk at legnth about some fourth-line Maple Leaf.

Nevermind that the AL East is in the toughest division in baseball, and one which will only become tougher next year. The Jays ended the season 37-35 against their own division, while the potential AL Central champs made hay by beating up on the Royals, Tigers and to a lesser extent, the Indians. The White Sox sit at 42-29 within their division before today's final game against Detroit, while the Twins racked up a 43-29 mark.

We'll probably hear lots about the incomparable job done by those two franchises to remain competitive and make the playoffs, even if all that collected acumen led them to two more wins than the Jays.

Moreover, against the AL East, those two models of excellence in franchise building got their asses handed to them. The Twins ended up 13-22, while the White Sox were 15-26.

Our kingdom for a balanced schedule.

Turning the page, Part II
Breaking news: Paul Godfrey is leaving the Jays. It's probably the worst kept secret of the year that he was on his way out after the season...Hell, we figured it out, and we don't have any of this new-fangled "access" that we keep hearing about.

We still think that Godfrey is a wannabe Republican kitten-eater, but give the man his due: he saw attendance increase by about three-quarters of a million patrons per season over his tenure. There's something to be said about that.

Meanwhile, the nostalgic hacks in Toronto already have Paul Beeston stepping in to take over.

You know who I miss?....

Aaron Hill. I know, I'm not exactly breaking new ground here. Old news, right? Second base hasn't exactly been the most pressing trouble spot, correct?

Yeah, the Jays are loaded with scrappy gritty solid hustling (any more? Help me out here..) middle infielders who have done an adequate job filling in for the Concussed One, but I can't shake the feeling that the loss of Hill for all but 55 games this season hasn't received appropriate ink (err...keystrokes....err...whatever) in the Blue Jay world. Thus, this post.

Do you mean to tell me the Jays couldn't use a .290 average and 60 extra base hits this season? You don't think the team would love to drop his Gold Glove caliber defense between first base and second every day? You don't think Voodoo Joe, Triple Ecks, My Ninja Scutaro, and waiver wire wonder Johnny Mac would be better served in utility roles tailored to their strengths? Are you going to sit here and tell me the team couldn't use some of this (skip to 2:20)?

Well, you could try and tell me all of the above, but I would reply by calling you a god-damned liar. Here's hoping Hilly (I'm pretty sure that I've heard Matt "Stairsy" Stairs refer to him this way, so let's go with it) shakes the cobwebs and is back to full strength next season. His presence alone will go a long way towards solidifying the lineup.

Heeeeeere's that stretch I was hyping

So, here we are. Fifteen games in a row facing Boston, New York, and Tampa. Stating the obvious, last week I wrote that this stretch was crucial to the razor-thin shot the Jays had at climbing back into the race.

If nothing else, it should be an exciting stretch of baseball, beginning tonight in Fenway. Or excruciating. It's a toss-up, really. Pretty sure you'll be able to tell by my tone next week - if I'm still here, that is. I think my probationary review is coming up.

I like playing with trains

I've caught myself talking about trains a lot lately. You know, like "I'm on the so-and-so train". For the record, I'm a fully fledged passenger on the following trains:

the Brandon League train- I'd like to think I got on this one fairly early, but he's teased us before with late-season surges. Stay off the board this winter, broseph.

the Ricky Romero train - mainly because of all the shit and abuse he's had to put up with early in his career ("Tuuuuuloooooo....hey Tuuuuulooooooo...."), and hey - he's pitching well. I'm pulling for the kid.

the Free Buck Coats train - you know the saying - "the most popular player on the team is the backup quarterback"? Well, in this case, the most popular player in the system is the guy behind Mencherson. Or something like that.

Before I go...

Fuck Kevin Youkilis and his massive chin. Yeah - right back at you there, shooter.

Is there a more detestable player in baseball? I mean, how does the Red Sox Nation sleep at night with the knowledge they worship this guy?

The Battle for AL East Supremacy Begins

Sure, it's only two weeks into the season, but the Jays and Orioles sit a half game ahead of the Red Sox atop the AL East. We hope that O's fans are relishing this moment.

We really shouldn't gloat over what we anticipate will be a precipitous fall from grace for the Baltimoreans, seeing as how last year's team (which pretty much sucked as much as we anticipate this year's will) went 8-10 against the Jays.

Tonight's pitching matchup features Dustin McGowan and his Lambchops of Vengeance versus Matt Albers (1-0, 0.00 ERA).

Tomorrow night, it's Shaun Marcum versus the Human Rain Delay, Steve Trachsel. For those of you planning to PVR the game, please remember to add an extra hour or two.

Jon Hale is our Pitch F/X Pool Boy: Hale is supposed to be on vacation, but he's taken time out to affirm that we were correct when we stated that Laz Diaz was giving Halladay some pitches off the plate on Saturday. Of course, Diaz is know to have a pretty consistently wide strike zone, so it's not as though Halladay was getting away with anything. Also of interest on the Mockingbird is a breakdown of Beej's return.

Jim Lang loves Whitey Herzog, in theory: Jim Lang, a man whose tenure on Canada's airwaves defies explanation, went off on a "I hate Moneyball" rant on his Sportsnet.ca blog last week. Of course, being a Canadian sports anchor, Jim's areas of expertise tend to fall more in the area of junior hockey and scrub-league football. (Yeah, we're looking your way, CFL.) So you'll have to forgive Jimmer if he kinda muffed up his facts. Lang's notion that the Jays should give up lots of outs to get one run doesn't exactly square with, you know, reality. Or the fact that Whitey's teams were OBP machines.

Fire Joe Morgan, who took time out of their busy day to give Lang the bidness, must be wondering about the crappy state of baseball commentary in Canada. This marks the second time in as many weeks that they've had to take a Toronto sports media goon to the shed, after last week's Professor Griff takedown.

Enough with the goddamned haikus already

After reading the umpeteenth season preview done as a series of haikus, we just have to say: enough already.

Joe Posnanski's AL East predictions done as haikus are cloying and dull enough, but his prediction that the Jays will finish behind the Rays just demonstrates how little thought he actually put into them. Writing a team preview as a 5-7-5 isn't a sign that you're clever. It's a sign that you've got sweet FA to actually say about the teams.

Seriously people. Just stop.