Where It All Changed - A Prelude to the Season's End

You'll have to pardon the gratuitous Grateful Dead reference, but what a long strange trip the season's been. And somehow, it's still going.

We're working up to a piece that wraps the season up into a few pithy paragraphs, which we hope to have for you by the end of this week. But given our recent fits of delinquency on the blog, we figured we'd pull out a couple of the lesser strands from that piece for their own post. It's a little like watching the deleted scenes before you see the movie.

The most notable thing about looking back this season is that it's hard to find the beginning point of this year versus the closure of last year. In all likelihood, it went back before pitchers and catchers reported, and we suppose you could figure that the calendar truly flipped when the Jays named John Farrell as their manager on October 25th. But truth be told, we're still not sure after almost a full season what Farrell is as a manager, or what he brings to the mix. A strong jaw and a willingness to abide baserunning outs? But what more than that? We're still trying to figure that cat out.

As we look back, we keep settling on that day back in January, when Vernon Wells was traded out of town. We can still picture the restaurant where we had just walked in for a meal with Mrs. Tao, and the feverish exchange of tweets and messages as the details came to the surface. (Also, the indulgence of the missus as we lost our mind and ignored her for the entire meal. Sorries.) We suspect that the magnitude of that transaction has been lost somewhat over the past few months, to a point where we even saw tweets and heard JaysTalk calls which wondered about how good a trade it was, usually after a bad outing by Frank Francisco or a good night by Mike Napoli.

(Hopefully, Mike Wilner could back us up on that. We listened to A LOT of JaysTalk this year. It wasn't always like an exchange of discourse among gentleman and scholars at the Acropolis.)

But with almost 10 months' distance since the trade was announced, it's still worth remembering what a momentous change for the franchise that single transaction represented. It wasn't just about riding the team of a middling bat (though that helped) and a heap of cash (that was pretty nice as well). It wasn't just about opening up the middle of the diamond to a younger player with more upside, nor was it about reworking the middle of the lineup. The point is that a franchise with Vernon Wells as it's begrudging centrepiece does not make the deal for Colby Rasmus, and the Jays don't take the hyper-aggressive approach to drafting amateurs and signing international free agents this year if they are still trying to find a dance partner for the Wells Jubilee.

There's a touch of unease in personifying all that has gone right with this franchise around Wells, because we fear that he's been made to be more of a villain than he deserves. Many have filled in their own notion of how Vernon's intangible presence might have detracted from the team, but we wouldn't suggest that we know what occurs behind the closed doors of the Jays' clubhouse. Though it's hard to conceive of Wells' presence in the middle of the raucous, Delta House atmosphere that we've seen in the dugout as young stars with out-sized personalities made their way into the lineup.

Regardless, the $25 million per annum that the Jays would have had to pay out to him through the end of the 2014 season would have cast such a shadow over all other moves that they made that the team and its wunderkind general manager wouldn't have had the flexibility to take the calculated risks that they have since.

There's going to come a day when we write the book on how it all came together for the next great Toronto Blue Jays championship team. We have a notion that the Wells trade will not only provide the jumping off point for that narrative, but that it will weave its way through many of the other strands. The elasticity of the Jays' plan going forward depended on that single transaction.

A requiem for Vernon Wells

We still remember the first time we laid eyes on Vernon Wells. It was one of those late season Sunday afternoon games, where the first round draft pick gets invited into the booth to chat and drink in what is likely his first experience in Toronto.

Wells, having been taken fifth overall in June of that year, acquitted himself well for an 18 year-old, and that appearance lit a spark within us: "Is this guy going to be part of the next World Series winning team? Is this the first piece of the puzzle?" They were unquestionably high expectations. Likely too high, but as Jays fans - indeed, any sports fans - how could you resist?

Though the circumstances that led to the Blue Jays prolonged downturn and stagnation could hardly be left at Wells doorstep, he will be seen more than any other player as emblematic of the team's most frustrating decade. Wells, like the teams he's played on over the past 12 seasons, was good, but never quite good enough. He, like the team, had flashes of brilliance. But nothing that allowed them to transcend from a middling franchise into a contender.

Vernon, perhaps more than any other Jay in the franchise's history, wears the team's failure in the minds of the fans. His contemporaries, such as Carlos Delgado and Roy Halladay, will always be regarded differently, and above the performance of the particular rosters with which they played. There is even, to a certain extent, a sense that the team failed them by not creating a winning team around (or maybe more to the point, beneath) them.

Wells, on the other hand, will wear the hairshirt for the Jays of the 2000's. His injuries (which he played through to his detriment) and his absences from the lineup will be drawn out as reasons why certain teams languished. His inconsistency will be pointed out, with his OPS yo-yoing from the low .700's one year, then bouncing back into mid-.800's the next. The rapid decline of his thrice-Gold-Glove-worthy defense will come to mind, as will his quiet obstinance over staying in the middle of the order and in the middle of the outfield.

But more than anything, he'll be remembered for his contract.

In many ways, it's unfair to hold Wells to account for the contract that he signed following the 2006 season. The market for offensive players was about to blow up, with Alfonso Soriano and Carlos Lee also receiving otherworldly sums for long term deals, and Vernon's deal was never quite understood in that context on this side of the border. Moreover, the Jays' sudden bounteousness following the years of frugality which saw the exit of Delgado never quite sat well with the faithful, such as they are.

(There was a whole other post from June of 2009 where we delve into the Wells/Delgado distinction, which is worth a read - if we do say so ourself - when you have a moment. We won't go much further down that road now.)

But surely, the entirety of Wells' legacy can't be understood only by his failings and his circumstances, can it?

As Wells closes the book on his time in Toronto, he leaves having compiled one of the longest and most distinguished careers in the team's history. In the counting stats, Wells sits second all-time in Jays history in plate appearances, runs, doubles, runs created, homers and RBI (all behind Delgado), and second in hits (behind Tony Fernandez). And had he the opportunity to play one last season with the Jays, he likely would have moved into first all-time in a number of those categories. If nothing else, Wells' longevity has certainly made him a memorable part of the team's history.

Some of the rate stats aren't quite as flattering, as he drops to 12th all-time in OPS and 15th in adjusted OPS, though his sample size is often two to three times larger than some of those ahead of him. There may even be an interesting debate - amongst those of us who are insane enough put thought into such things - as to Wells' worthiness of enshrinement on the team's Level of Excellence.

But as we attempt to take a step back, even this soon after his departure, we see that a day will come when many of us will again think kindly on Vernon Wells. His 2003 and 2006 campaigns will forever rate amongst the greatest seasons ever compiled by a Blue Jay, and his three Gold Gloves will remind us of his tenacious, subtle brilliance in the outfield. And he was as smart of a baserunner as we can remember, hustling to taking extra bases often while rarely getting tossed out.

The picture we'll hold of Vernon Wells is from a September 2003 series against the Cleveland Indians, as we sat at the SkyDome and watched Wells equal, then break Tony Fernandez's single-season mark for hits in a season. His 213th hit of the season was a scorching line drive back through the middle, while the 214th was a laser hit to third baseman Casey Blake which the befuddled fielder then threw away, with Wells scampering to second. As Vernon bent over to dust himself off, we held our breath for a moment, waiting for the hometown scorer's decision: Base hit, E5 on the throw.

Vernon Wells had the record. He made history. And when it comes right down to it, that's how we really want to remember him.

That Wells money shouldn't be burning a hole in your pocket

After the "hysteria and hyperbole" (TM John Lott, NatPost and J-School Jedi) subsided on Friday night, we received a number of cards and letters outlining to us that the only way to determine the efficacy of trading of Vernon Wells was to see what the Jays did with the money that they saved.

To which we say: Are you frickin' kidding us? Do you not realize and appreciate what was just accomplished here?

Before the trade, Jays were on the hook for $86 Million to a player with ongoing injury and performance issues over the past three seasons. They were going to carry on a significant percentage of their player payroll being attributed to a player who is likely (given age and past track record) to diminish in on-field value. Now, they've moved a contract that was deemed "untradeable" right up until about 5 PM Eastern Time on Friday evening.

"But wait!" you exclaim! "It shouldn't matter because Alex Anthopoulos and Paul Beeston said that money wasn't an issue, which I of course took to mean that the Blue Jays can spend all of the money that they want and sit on a huge contract if they have to because Rogers is totally the richest company ever!"

To which we respond: You've really got to learn to parse words better than that, and stop hearing what you want to hear. (Also, you should probably see a shrink, because we're assuming that this sort of behaviour doesn't limit itself to the Blue Jays. For your sake and the sake of your loved ones: Get help.)

When AA or Beeston make claims along these lines, they are intended primarily to move the conversation away from Ricciardi-style defeatism where the limitations of the budget made competing in the AL East seem to be an impossibility. Which is not to say that they are cynical, because if the Jays' front office can make a compelling business case for upping the payroll, we're sure that their comrades around the Rogers senior management table (you know, the mobile and cable guys who make all that money that you're looking to piss away on Vernon Wells' 2014 performance) might actually be able to buy in. But no one at that table is going to put their own personal performance bonus on the line so that the Jays can heave cash at this fire or that one in the hopes of putting them out.

What the Jays bought themselves this weekend was payroll flexibility. And that flexibility will allow them to look towards extending their relationship with the products of their own system over the next four season. They'll have the funds to lock up Travis Snider, should he turn into the 35 homer, 5 WAR player that we think he can be. That $21 million four years from now will also go a long way towards locking up Deck McGuire, or some June 2011 pick of whom we haven't yet even heard the first peep.

Just because the Jays have this additional money today, it doesn't mean that the trade pulled off this weekend can only be judged based upon how they spend that extra dough. Because frankly, spending the money in your pocket just because you've got it is how Tony Reagins got himself into this deal.

It's a shame about Vern

Pt I: It didn't have to end this way (but we're all kinda' glad that it did)
At the end of the day, it was always about the money. Vernon Wells ranks at or near the top of every major offensive category on the Blue Jays career leaders list - and yeah, they're mostly counting stats based on longevity, but isn't that the point? - and yet, his relationship with the fans has always been...... strained. To say the least.

I mean, who gives themself the nickname "Boo"? A pretty good player living under the shadow of a ridiculous (as seen now) 7 yr/$126M deal handed out at the apex of MLB contract insanity, that's who.

That's megastar money for (just) a pretty good ballplayer who found himself in the right place at the right time. But with that money came expectations that could never be met and shoes ol' Boo could never fill. You always got the feeling Wells was a better fit in a supporting role, but that was never going to be an option once ink met paper. $126M players can't hide in the background, and every struggle was magnified. Every roll-over on an outside fastball or pop-up (GODDAMNIT!!) on a decent offspeed pitch brought on the chorus of hate as a result.

And now we won't have Vernon to kick around anymore. I'm not going to lie to you, I'll miss him.

Pt II: .... but it's OK to be happy about this
Am I going to miss the remaining $80+M over the next 4 seasons? Not so much. Being perfectly honest, I don't really care what Wells made. I never have. But it was/is (to the Angels, now) an albatross contract that had to affect the front-0ffice thinking with regards to roster construction, despite the constant proclaim of an open-ended budget.

And now? No more. If nothing else, it lets us dream (which is everything here). It's behind the subscriber wall, but I'll share a line from Keith Law's analysis of the deal on ESPN regarding the final outcome and ramifications from a Blue Jays perspective:

"They could become very good, very fast."

Feels good to be on the other side of one of these, doesn't it?

Pt III: And what of the new guys? Where do they fit?
Mike Napoli is an offensive-minded catcher whose best attribute is his power, and his worst? Fringey defence. Sound familiar? Somewhere, JP Arencibia nods his head silently. That said, don't be so quick to write-off the Jays' feelings about their young catcher or play up the team's apparent hesitation to let JPA play.

I'm of the opinion that Napoli will find AB's at 1B and DH in addition to his catching duties (think 3 times a week or so), with Arencibia likely seeing slightly-above platoon level at-bats. It just seems the franchise has invested too much in the young catcher in terms of coaching (Wakamatsu) and PR ("the kid has to play") to let him waste away on the bench, and there's nothing left for the AAA MVP to prove in Vegas. So play he will.

Juan Rivera? 4th outfielder..... if he makes the trip north out of Spring Training still a Blue Jay. I'm not convinced.

Pt IV: Where do we go from here?
If I have a concern for the 2011 Blue Jays (just one?), it's this: who are these guys?

Are we close to having all the pieces of the collective puzzle known as The Plan within the system? Or does this magnificent salary mulligan mean more blockbusters are on the horizon - be it this season or next winter? Something even more than a multi-year deal for Jose Bautista? Trades taking on salary? Players in free agency? Extensions for more young stars (Snider, Morrow....)?

(and by the way, if/when Bautista signs on long-term with the club - which I believe he now will - we should get everyone's opinion on record to prevent or justify the tired "I told you so" meme three years down the road. Me? I liked locking up Wells at the time. I know, I know....)

Pt V: Alex Anthopoulos terrifies me
In a good way. Silent Assassin, indeed.

Pt VI: From an LAA perspective
What. The. Fuck?

.... and in the end, it's a great deal for the Blue Jays franchise and a fresh start for Vernon. Remind me to never again bemoan the lack of "blockbuster" moves from the team during the traditional transactional periods. Goddamn, AA. Wow.

Lost in the shuffle

52 home runs. And counting.

98 walks. And counting.

An OPS of 1.021. Not a typo.

If you're anything like me (and pray to your God that you aren't), you still can't get past the ridiculous numbers Jose Bautista is putting up. He's the clear cut, no doubt, why bother talking about it MVP of the 2010 Toronto Blue Jays, and there is no debate.

But take a look just down the Jays' leaderboard (I know, it's a deep dark chasm between JoBau and the next), and well now, what do we have here? That would be Vernon Wells having perhaps the quietest season falling somewhere between solid and spectacular in recent memory.

Before the year began, I mused that Vernon might have a season reminiscent of his 2008 campaign in him (It's true! I did so! Look it up!), and it appears that indeed he did:

2008: .300/.343/.496/.840 - 20 HR, 78 RBI
2010: .271/.330/.516/.846 - 30 HR, 83 RBI

While it's the nice juicy round 30 HR figure that catches the eyes (The Manager inclusive, obviously), it's the return of the OPS to the comfortably above average .840ish range that is perhaps most impressive statistical development.

(side note - I'll let the more advanced of you commenters discuss defensive metrics - it's an offseason project of mine - so I'll just focus on the offense....OK? OK.)

And maybe it should come as no surprise that Vernon is having the season he is while playing second fiddle to the monster that is Bautista. Vern's never seemed like the lead dog to me, and the weight of The Contract has always been heavy on his shoulders. With the team struggling, the $20M+ paycheque placed the target squarely between the numbers for the centrefielder, and it's difficult to argue that the onslaught of boos affected his play.

(....quick break while we reflect in quiet sympathy for ol' Vernie)

So is Wells back? Can we expect similar numbers for the next few seasons as the franchise inches it's way towards contender status? Difficult to say, and I'm scared to admit which side of that argument I'd lean on - but one thing seems certain: the emerging young (and old) stars on this Jays team should continue to keep the focus off of ol' #10 (and his contract) - and for everyone's sake, that's a good thing.

Random weekend quick-hitters
The talk of improved clubhouse harmony in the post-Halladay era refuses to go away, 150 or so games later, and quite frankly, I'm tired of hearing it. Love you, Blue Jays rotation, but.... enough.

Adam Lind has taken 38 walks.... while striking out 139 times. I didn't realize it was that bad, and now I'm depressed.

Brian Tallet leads all Blue Jay relievers with 74 IP. Brian Tallet has also posted the highest ERA (6.32) among active Blue Jay pitchers. This is not all on the goofy hipster longman. It's his use that's, uh, "confusing"...to be polite.

... John Buck hit his 20th HR yet?

Do you know what I would do if I was somehow able to attend the Cito Gaston Tribute Night? I'd stand and applaud the man(ager) who delivered two World Series titles to the city of Toronto, and who played a part in providing numerous & immeasurable baseball memories for this supernerdfan.

(Because I'm not really an asshole, y'know. I just sometimes pretend to be one on the internet.)

In lieu of thoughts, 10 random tweetable whims

We'd prefer not to put too much more thought into last night's game. We're not even going to repeat the score or the details, because such a thing will only help the thought to take purchase in the soil of our mind. And so, we forget.

In lieu of any day after gnashing of teeth, we offer up 10 brief and random notions on the season thus far. We do this also because since we been on the Twitter, we can no longer shape or develop any cogent argument in a paragraph. We can only hint at the possibility of one in 140 characters.

(All hail Twitter: The End of Thought, The Triumph of Whims!)

1. We'd given up on Casey Janssen, but he now looks like he could throw a pitch past someone if he needed to.

2. Randy Ruiz is a big dude, but he can run the bases with fury if he needs to.

3. We like seeing Adam Lind in the field. It reminds us that he's going to play there when the Jays make it to the World Series.

4. Overbay complained in '09 about not getting regular playing time. We hope he's enjoying his 2010 so far. We're not. So far.

5. Kevin Gregg just looks like a closer. Like a big, jarheaded nasty shut-the-door closer. And that appeals to some part of us.

6. Frasor is about eight inches shorter than Gregg, but still throws harder. It just doesn't seem that way.

7. Ruiz has now scored more runs than Aaron Hill. And not in the good way we might have imagined before the season.

8. Hamstring injuries scare the shit out of us. We remember the first time Vernon pulled up lame with one.

9. A sign that this might be more than a hot start: In addition to his improved swing, Vernon is letting pitches off the plate go for balls.

10. The 51s are 6-1 so far. And Brad Mills' line looks like this: 2-0, 0.79 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 18 Ks, 1 BB.

It's only 4 games, but I'll take it

Of course, I'm not so ridiculous to believe it'll last for any length of time, but......how's the weather down there, Boston? Any better from where you sit, New York?

OK, grade 7 catcalls a mere four games into the schedule aside, fans of the Jays have to appreciate the good times as they come. And good times they have been. Vernon Wells playing superman. Adam Lind validating his extension. Solid starting pitching from Marcum, Tallet, and Romero. Promising outings in relief (Kevin Gregg!). Three wins in four games, two coming in the nailbiting fashion the team was frequently on the wrong side of last year.

Things will go sour. On a young, rebuilding ballclub - they almost always do. But right now, even the signs of trouble hint at optimism:

Travis Snider - penciled in as a future leader of this ballclub - looked completely lost and without a plan at the plate in Thursday's 3-1 victory over Texas (0-4, 3 bad K's)....then rebounds as the hitting hero in Friday's 7-6 comeback win over the Orioles (doubling off of lefty closer Mike Gonzalez to drive in the tieing run, eventually scoring the winner).

Brandon Morrow seemingly confirmed our worst fears in his first start as a Jay, walking four and hitting a batter - in the first inning! - before settling in to dominate with his fastball before tiring in the fifth.

This is how the season is bound to go. One step (hopefully two) forward, one step (hopefully not two) back. 2010 is all about progress. Wins are gravy. But hey - who doesn't like gravy?

Vernon Wells is good people
Nevermind the hot start (but hey, how about that hot start!), opening week has been a welcome reminder that Vernon Wells is a good dude. Fans booed him lustily last season (pricks!) as he failed to live up to his outrageous contract, in part - in my opinion - because Vern carries himself with a seeming emotional detachment to his struggles on the field.

But maybe that's just who Vernon is. Maybe he's a guy who realizes that no amount of gatorade cooler bashing or temper tantrum throwing can alter the course of an infield popup (goddamnit!) or swinging strikeout (on a slider down and away). And maybe he's also a guy who realizes that struggles on the field don't compare to everyday struggles off the field.

I know, I know....some of you don't give a shit, and all that matters to you is what he does for the Jays on the diamond. But maybe think about who The Player is "in real life" next time you decide to ride his ass for his latest 0-12 slump.

(aaaand, I just sprained an ankle jumping off my soapbox)

Vernon Wells found something in the off-season

Maybe it's his swing. Maybe it's his strut. Or maybe it is good health.

Whatever it is that he found or reclaimed, Wells seems to have improved remarkably in the batters box through his first nine plate appearances. His bat is quick through the hitting zone, the plane of his swing is level, and that path that his bat takes to the ball straight and direct.

Maybe it's our irrational happiness for the return of real baseball, but we started to have visions of the rest of Vernon's season, where he was a centrepiece of a surprising resurgence.

And then we had another thought, which was oddly unsettling. We thought about Vernon playing at a 30-homer 100-RBI pace when the centrefielder of a big money contender goes down, and they are in desperate need of a solid offensive and defensive replacement. Wouldn't we feel amazing if the Jays were able to unload the back end of that contract? And aren't we kinda rooting for VW to play himself out of Toronto.

Loving Vernon is never a simple thing.

And as for that whole Eric Smith thing
Sorry. We should know better that to rise to the mainstream media vs. bloggers bait. But Smith's high-and-mighty lecture on the relative value of journalism and ACCESS! just seemed so ludicrously smug and self-satisfied, and yet so poorly conceived, wretchedly executed and so rife with cliches that it would have been a shame to not tee off on it.

Smith has backpedaled on the piece a bit, letting us know that some of his best friends are bloggers, and that he didn't say "ALL" bloggers are bad, so no one should take offense.

So we won't.

Opening Day Dopeness and Wackness: It could be one of those years

We'll be straight with you: We were so excited to watch baseball and so geeked by the first eight-and-a-half innings yesterday that it took awhile for the fact of yesterday's loss to actually sink in.

And as we got to thinking about it, it struck us that this what this whole season could end up being for us Blue Jays fans: An exercise in finding the positives wherever they might be hiding.

Opening Day Dopeness
When it comes to the good, Shaun Marcum and (gasp!) Vernon Wells obviously stand out. Marcum looked great through six innings and lost the handle a bit in the seventh. It's pretty hard to fault him on that pitch that Nelson Cruz swatted out for a three-run equalizing shot, because that was a pretty great location, and we're still dumbfounded as to how Cruz half-swung and drove that ball 400 feet.

As for Vernon, we've been really impressed with the fluidity of his swing so far this season. He's not dropping his hands and he's coming through the hitting zone quickly and on a nice level plane. And if he keeps doing that, there may be room for in our cold cold hearts to welcome him back.

Adam Lind's swing is worth every penny he's got coming to him. And Aaron Hill continues to be awesome.

Opening Day Wackness
So, uh, Jason Frasor...How's that closer role feel? Not to get all irrational over one game, but we actually started to wonder yesterday what Kevin Gregg might have done in that situation.

(And yeah, we know that's the stupidest thing ever. We're just sharing our stupidity with you so that you know that fending off our inner Jays Talk caller is a constant struggle.)

Also: Lyle Overbay left five guys on base.

Opening Day Dopeness, Disguised as Wackness
Sure, Travis Snider struck out three times yesterday. But he also worked his way into deep counts, and worked his way back to full counts in two of those at bats, and a lot of his strikes yesterday were on foul balls that he got to quickly and fought off. With that patient approach, Snider's going to get pitches to hit eventually.

Don't Call It a Comeback - Your opening day starter

There are lots of ways that we could slice the discussion over the Jays' Opening Day starter in order to make it seem like bad news.

Whoever it was who was going to get named to that still-somewhat-anachronistically-prestigious role, he wasn't going to be Doc. And as it turns out, it's a player who has no major league track record from 2009 to parse through for argument's sake.

But we'll say this about Shaun Marcum: So long as he continues to stand his ground like a manly-man against wearing those insipid BP caps with the NASCAR pit crew piping on, he's all right by us.

(And the fact that he's still got a spotless ERA in five Fake Game innings makes this all the more easy to swallow.)

What about RR Cool Jay?
We like that there is actually a bit of room to argue about who deserves the role this year, if one were given to taking Ricky Romero's side of the argument. Romero had some brilliant stretches last year before he tired and started throwing everything that was supposed to be down in the zone into the dirt. His 1.93 ERA through four Fake starts seemingly augurs well for the forthcoming season, though the six walks in 14 innings (versus nine Ks) is still a bit worrisome.

(And as for the rest of the rotation? It kinda scares the shit out of us.)

Links!
It's a bit of a banner day out there for reading material about the Jays:

Firstly: Jeff Blair leaves his boyish crush on Melissa Hollingsworth aside and shows up for duty in Dunedin, leading off with a smart and fresh take on Vernon Wells. God bless Blair...With his Angry Man Tweeting routine and his long absences from the beat, we sometimes forget what a truly excellent baseball writer he is.

Next! Will Leitch, the man who somehow got us hooked on this whole "we/us" blogging voice, talks about The Manager on his blogma matter. (And gets stuff wrong, but who are we to quibble? We didn't even merit a link in his story! Screw him. We're gonna go comb back our emo bangs and start slagging him at every possible turn. Kill your idols!)

And then! Mop Up Duty has a roundtable of Blue Jays bloggers, which does not include us. (Which is mostly because we couldn't be arsed to answer an email in a timely fashion. But still.)

Don't tell me the Jays are doing well in the Fake Games

La la la la la! We can't hear you!

When you say that José Bautista is hitting home runs, and so is Vernon Wells, and so is Randy Ruiz, we can't hear you. And don't even bother trying to tell us that Shaun Marcum pitched well in his first outing, or that Dustin McGowan looked like he might be showing some progress and may be on his way back. We're not going to hear you.

We're blocking out any such good news in the early going because we wouldn't want such news to find purchase in our mind, and start to grow visions of success. We would prefer to look at this all as a fluke, and to pretend that the Jays are playing bantam-level players in out-sized big league uniforms.

We should know better than to get enthusiastic in March. This is a lesson that should have been driven home by last year's squad, which was still sitting in first in May before completely falling apart and playing like the worst team in the Majors for the final three months of the season.

Still, the hopeless romantic in us wants to believe that there is something to the things that we're hearing out of Dunedin.

Marginalia - Notes on how we make editorial choices
We'd initially written something here about "don't let us look at the Fake Games results". Then we went looking for a photo of someone with a blindfold on. And that's when we realized that there are a lot of effed-up pictures of blindfolded people on the internet, and we didn't want to parse through those pictures anymore.

A weekend in The Show
So we picked up our copy of MLB 10 The Show this weekend, which was a very new and interesting experience after having played the MLB 2K games on the Wii for the past several years. If there is one thing that a uniform nerd like myself could fully appreciate, it was playing my first game and seeing Jo-Bau in his new number 19, and Randy Ruiz wearing his new number 21. The rosters hadn't quite been updated to the point of having Kevin Gregg in the bullpen, although we'll take that as a positive at this point. At least we didn't have to see last year's staff ace still on the roster, taunting us with his digital presence.

Now if we can only get the hang of this whole pitching meter thing. Because that shit is driving us nuts.

So what Vernon is saying is...

So, if we're reading every story put out yesterday by every writer covering the Jays correctly, Vernon Wells is starting to feel like this is his team.

Really. Seriously, Vernon. That's where you want to go with this.

Somehow, over the past dozen years, there was something missing for you, because there were always those pesky folks blocking your way. Like Carlos Delgado. Or Roy Halladay. But now that those perennial All-Stars, Silver Sluggers, Cy Young winners and Sporting News AL Players of the Year are out of the way, you can feel comfortable enough to stretch your shit out and feel like the man of the house around Dunedin.

(Never mind the fact that there are two incumbent Silver Sluggers in your lineup who are on the cover of the Canadian editions of all the baseball preview magazines this year. Ignore that altogether.)

And here's the really sad part for us fans: If this has somehow become "Vernon's Team", it is due far more to the attrition of talent around him rather than his stepping forward and claiming that title for himself in any of the past four seasons.

And don't get us wrong here: We would really love to see Vernon and his Manboobs of Glory triumph over the AL and have him go 30/100 again. We even suspect that he could do it. But to be frank, there's something that is way wrong in that dude's head.

The Parade of Links to Vernon's Leadership Declarations

Griffin: The time has come for Wells to make the Blue Jays his own (Professor Griff, The Star)

Jays leadership role to Wells (Bobby Mac, The Globe and Mail)

Wells takes on leadership role (Bastian!)

It's his team now (Arash Madani, Sportsnet)

Wells is back in the swing of things (Ken Fidlin, Sun)

And to be fair, we've taken the bait, as have most of our blogging compatriots. (Although much praise is due to GROF's Drew and his actual statistical researching and pie-charting of Vernon's issues. Where we play the dime store psychologist for Vernon, he plays clinical psychiatrist.)

Still, this story takes on a predictable echo effect. Sorta like the Edge's guitar in the last few U2 albums.

Vernon Wells is going to make Blue Jay history in 2010

As we were scrolling yesterday through the PDF pages of SABR's awesomely free Emerald Guide to Baseball, we found lots of informational nuggets that could have been turned into some sort of trivia challenge, if we were so inclined. (Of course, the most amazing prize that we could offer is probably the opportunity to share a six-pack of Carling with you on your front step, so it hardly seems worth the time to set up any such game.)

Amongst the more interesting things that we noticed in combing through the Blue Jays' career leaders in a number of statistical categories was the number of places where Vernon Wells is poised to leapfrog over some of the greatest names in the Jays' pantheon in the coming year. The categories in which he's ready to bound ahead are all counting stats, so they are as much a tribute to Wells' staying power as much as his performance.

Here's some of the milestones that we can expect Vernon to pass in the coming season:

Games Played: Vernon (1236) currently sits 156 games behind Lloyd Moseby (1392) for third on the Jays All-Time list. A healthy season from V-Dub - which is by no means a given - will put him over in line to take over the Shaker and will set him up to pass Carlos Delgado (1423) and Tony Fernandez (1450) for first place in 2011.

At Bats: Wells currently sits fourth with 4880 ABs, behind Fernandez (5335), Moseby (5124) and Delgado (5008). Even with some time missed, Wells could easily reach the 456 at bats necessary to move ahead of Fernandez. (Supposing that Tony doesn't have one more comeback in him.)

Runs: Wells (710) has a ways to go to catch Delgado (889), but given his 162 game average of 93 runs scored per season, he should easily pass Moseby (768) for second on the all time list.

(A quick break to mention this: We're really starting to miss Lloyd Moseby right about now. A pretty great player with the greatest nickname in Jays history. And now, on with the countdown.)

Hits: Vernon (1368) should move ahead of his old pal Delgado (1413) for second place if he comes anywhere near his 162 game average of 179 hits. It would take Wells matching his all time best season of 215 hits to tie Fernandez (1583) for first all time.

Home Runs: Wells (192) needs just 11 homers to pass George Bell (202) and 12 to pass Joe Carter (203) for third and second place all time in dingers. It would take Wells close to six seasons of average (25) output to reach Delgado's 336 for first all-time.

RsBI: Wells (725) should again easily move past Carter (736) and Bell (740) to move into second place all time behind Delgado (1058).

(Another brief pause just to say: We are now kinda wishing the Jays had grabbed Delgado off the free agent scrap heap this season, if only so that he could put a little extra daylight between himself and Wells in some of these categories. Because it just seems to us as though Carlos deserves to be at the top. Let's soldier on, shall we?)

Stolen Bases: Surprising (to us, anyways) is the fact that Wells (84) currently sits outside to top ten in steals. A couple of swipes this year will move him ahead of Handsome Alex Gonzalez (85) and José Cruz Jr. (85) for 10th spot, far behind all-time leader Moseby's 255.

Walks: A full, healthy and patient season from Vernon could push him (356) past Willie Upshaw (390) for seventh on the all-time list. Barring a contract extension for Wells through 2020 (*shudder*), Delgado's mark of 827 walks seems safe.

Vernon's place in history
We're not sure if this is sad or not, but given his contract, we assume that Wells will fumble his way to the top of most of these categories by the time he's done stealing money from this franchise. (Actually, we're pretty sure that we're sad about that.)

If Vernon can bounce back to a form which somewhat resembles his All-Star days of yore, we can see these milestone moments being celebratory over the next two years. But if he limps over the line and stumbles his way into history, we could see his achievements being greeted with a funereal resignation.

No more free barbecues

The Globe's Bobby McLeod reports that the Jays have put the kibbosh on the annual season ticket holder's barbecue in Dunedin.

We're shocked at the idea that the Jays are looking to create further cleavages between themselves and the most dedicated members of their fanbase at a time when they've come off one of their more spirit-crushing seasons and on the cusp of jettisoning their most beloved player since Tony Fernandez.

(And as an aside...wouldn't it be kinda cool if Doc kept coming back to Toronto every few years for a one more nostalgic run?)

We should probably be pretty upset and freaked out, except for the fact that we're a bit shocked that the Jays would foot the bill to fly several hundred season ticket holders to Dunedin and presumably put them up and feed them. If these folks can dish out thousands of dollars for season tickets, can't they find themselves their own flight and hotel for the night?

It sounds as thought the Jays are going to find other ways to pimp out their players to make nice with the season ticket holders. We're sure that there will be some consternation, but hopefully these types can hold back on the white whining a tad, given the current shite state of affairs in the world.

Other shite
-The MLB.com's Bastian of Knowledge says that Alex Anthopoulos might allow a negotiation window to help increase the value of Doc. Which makes a sense.

-Beeston hints for the 3687th time that Gillick might come back in an advisory role. We'd love this move if Stand Pat's first advice was to turf the manager, just like he wanted to in 1994.

-MLB Trade Rumors has a great piece on the reaction to the Vernon Wells contract signing way back when. This will be a bigger, longer blog post for us eventually. Maybe.

-Also from MLBTR, it sounds like the Jays and Scoots are just a couple a crazy kids who want to be together. We've seen too many romantic comedies in our lifetime to figure that they won't somehow make things work out in the end.

Baby steps (you gotta start somewhere)

Discounting the waiver claim of capital-P Project Sean Henn - who might have been worth keeping an eye on under the eye of now departed reclamation king Brad Arnsberg - the Jays began the inevitable (and necessary) roster makeover by claiming middle infielder Jarrett Hoffpauir from the Cardinals organization.

On first blush, it's an intriguing move, as Hoffpauir appears to have solid on-base skills, with a career minor league OBP of .365 (not a typo). The knock on the 26 year old appears to be his limited defensive skill set - and hello there, Brian Butterfield. Glad to see you weren't run out of town.

While Cards writer Brian Walton (see link above) seems to think this is just another Blue Jays "claim 'em & slide 'em through waivers" move (tough to argue the evidence), this addition to the 40-man bears watching for a variety of reasons:

1. These aren't your father's JP Ricciardi waiver wire claiming Blue Jays. It remains to be seen if these are really Alex A's Blue Jays, I guess, but let's give the retooled front office the benefit of the doubt on this one.

2. Outside of Aaron Hill, the entire infield - starters and reserves - is a major question mark heading into next season for the Jays, with Scutaro and McDonald heading to free agency. Jose Bautista and Eddie Encarnacion would be best advised to keep their real estate options open, too.

3. Did I mention the OBP? Oh, I did? How about the .843 OPS he put up in 350+ AAA at-bats last season. Why was this guy available again? Right - defense. Butter!!

Vernon Wells will remove the knife from his back and have it applied to his wrist
Word is that the much maligned Vernon Wells will have his left wrist repaired, after quietly dealing with the problem for a good portion of his brutal 2009 season. While it's certainly not unreasonable to believe the injury contributed to his miserable campaign, I don't think we should all go expecting the 2006 version of ol' Vern to reappear.

But a reasonable facsimile of the 2008 vintage Wells wouldn't be too much to ask, would it?

(No, seriously, I'm asking - what do you think is a reasonable expectation for Wells in 2010?)

A thought before you pencil Milton Bradley in the 2010 lineup

It was entirely expected that, as soon as Milton Bradley was given the heave-ho for the rest of the season (and likely forever) by the Chicago Cubs, Jays fans would start sizing him up.

After all, Bradley was the object of the affections of more than a few Jays fans in the off-season (including yours truly, with some caveats.) And the idea that there may be a franchise out there who is desperate enough to take on Vernon Wells' ridiculous contract in exchange for Bradley's merely goofy contract seems almost too attractive.

But don't think that the Jays would be doing themselves any sort of favour if they took on Bradley. While it would be great for the Jays to rid themselves of those long term commitments to Wells, Bradley is a physically brittle and emotionally delicate player who would only provide further surplus at the corner outfield and DH positions.

It's been four years since Milton Bradley played any sort of meaningful time in centre, and bringing him to Toronto in exchange for Wells would leave a glaring hole at that position. Moreover, having Bradley play the field on the Rogers Centre turf (even the new field covering that's been promised) would be a recipe for extended DH or DL stints.

Then again, maybe we're looking at the all wrong. If Milton has two years and $23.666 million left on his deal and Vernon has in excess of $104 million left owing to him between now and 2014, maybe you take the nuisance and send him off to tea parties with B.J. Ryan while lifting the financial anchor that Paul Godfrey left as his legacy.

It still doesn't seem like much of a plan to us.

The Randy Ruiz Era has begun

Sometimes, in the middle of mourning the things that you've lost or the things that you've started to realize will never come to pass, you begin to create unnatural attachments to whatever shines in your proximity.

Such is the case with Randy Ruiz.

The big Bronx-born slugger managed to slice a pitch the other way for Yankee Stadium special last night, putting the Jays ahead 4-3. If only the game could have ended there.

Unfortunately, we were forced to watch Cito's lefty mancrush Jesse Carlson slinging batting practice floaters in to the mightiest lineup in the Majors. Three hits, three runs and back-to-back homers in one-third of an inning later, it was all shittied up good.

Those ever-so-brief moments of happiness that we as Jays fans can eek out are pretty fleeting, aren't they.

Vernon says a mouthful
Vernon Wells' reaction to the Sun on Rios' hasty departure was pretty revealing in terms of his current state of mind.

"You sign that kind of a deal, (scrutiny) is going to come with it," he said. "It's a matter of going out and playing better baseball. You can never justify the amount of money anybody makes in this game. You don't make excuses for it. It's not my job to explain it or justify it. I've just got to go out and play the game of baseball like I have ever since I was a little kid."

Well okay then.

Afternoon baseball will kill your productivity
It's kinda eerie to look at the lines of this afternoon's starters: RR Cool Jay (10-5, 3.66 ERA, 1.37 WHIP) takes to the bump versus this A.J. Burnett fellow (10-5, 3.67 ERA, 1.37 WHIP). First pitch is at 1:07. Get it on.

Our new, most favorite player ever: Vernon Wells

In Glengarry Glen Ross, Ricky Roma says: "I subscribe to the law of contrary public opinion... If everyone thinks one thing, then I say, bet the other way..." After a weekend of listening to Blue Jays fans patrons heartily boo Vernon Wells at every turn, on virtually every at bat, we're really seeing the merit in Roma's worldview.

So screw it: We love Vernon Wells. Vernon is the best, and you chuckleheads don't even realize it. You're way too focused on his contract, and how much he gets paid, and not nearly focused enough on what a standout player he can be. It's not to say that we haven't had our frustrations with him, and we've probably torn into him a few dozen times this season. But that was before we saw the light.

Our Road to Damascus moment probably happened in the sixth inning of Sunday's game, when Wells hit into a double play. Jays fans were so overwhelmed by the need to once again show their displeasure with his performance that they barely noticed Adam Lind scoring from third on the play. The Jays go up 4-1, and the crowd goes wild with self-indulgent outrage that Wells failed.

But here's the thing, and it's the very essence of baseball that you have to understand before you get on your high horse and tear these players to shreds on each and every homestand: Baseball is a game of failure.

The best offensive players in baseball are going to fail more often than they succeed. Albert Pujols leads the Majors with a .455 on base percentage. That means that more than half the time, the Greatest Player in the Game Today heads back to the bench with nothing to show for his efforts. If you're only failing six times out of ten, you're still an All-Star. Six and a half times, and you're still a hero to your hometown fans.

As for Vernon, he's posting a .305 OBP, which is pretty lousy by his standards. But the difference between him being a bum and hometown hero is essentially one extra positive outcome every two games. That's it.

But even if Vernon were to manage that extra positive outcome, we're not sure that the patrons at the Rogers Centre would even notice. On Saturday, after he started the game with a single, a double and a run scored, the mob rained down boos after he popped up in the fifth for the first out of the inning. What the what?! Were you expecting that Wells should have a five for five day? Maybe hit for the cycle? Can't you lay off a guy for a few innings if he's done some good early in the game?

Wells didn't have a stellar week last week (5-26, one homer, two runs scored and a .577 OPS). But you know what? Even the greatest players in the game have weeks where they don't tear the cover off the ball. Albert Pujols, the same aforementioned Greatest Player in the Game Today, posted a .477 OPS and went 5-24 last week. Do you think they'd boo him out of Busch Stadium if he posted the same line next week?

It's not him, it's YOU
And for those of you who haven't been paying attention, Vernon Wells' numbers on the road this year are actually pretty impressive. When he gets away from Garbagetown, the Dome and the Larry Murphy Expulsion Through Incessant Booing Society Glee Club, Vernon puts up an .868 OPS.

And since you didn't ask, we'll tell you: That's a better number than either Lind (.865), Rolen (.818) or Hill (.782), and trails only Marco Scutaro (.873) among Jays regulars. So, you know, he's actually kinda good when he can't see or hear or smell you.

Why the difference? We couldn't tell you. Maybe it's because he hates you and your booing more than you hate him. Whatever the case, we recommend the following course of action for you Vernon Booers: Sit down, have a drink, shut the fuck up and accept that Vernon isn't going to have a positive outcome in every at bat. It will make everyone's life that much happier.

Big Win! Homer Derby! Everybody's happy, right?

So ten runs on eight hits, and we're all happy and contented with the Blue Jays current situation, right?

Right?

It's easy to discount last night's offensive explosion since it came off Carl Pavano, who is only marginally more effective than putting a tee over home plate. Still, a win's a win and if you're one of those who still ponders the imponderable (Playoffs!!!1?), then we're going to need to take advantage of every sucky pitcher that gets thrown out against you.

Speaking of sucking
Here's a mild suggestion to big time slugger Vernon Wells: When you are having a sucktastic season and your contract is the albatross that is yoked around this franchise's neck, then maybe you should consider scaling back on the kiss-the-fingers-point-to the-sky routine when you cross home plate after hitting a rare home run. Just sayin'.

Elsewhere in home run celebrations
Marco Scutaro can keep kissing his bat all he wants.

Not that we want to talk about The Trade That May or May Not Be, but...
Has anyone noticed how Halladay seems to be one of the first people up to congratulate the starter after he comes out of the game? Maybe this is something that he has always done, but we've just noticed it in the past week or so. What does it all mean?

And furthermore on The Trade That May or May Not Be, which we prefer not to discuss
We saw J.P. on Jim Rome is Burning, and what we can read from that interview is the following: We still don't like Jim Rome. That dude has not changed at all in the five years since we stopped listening to him. Same hair, same douchey goatee. We're assuming that "clones" have still got to "have a take" and "not suck" or they "will get run". Or, they can string together a few stolen jokes and fratboy cheap shots for an "epic!" take, and get "racked". So we probably haven't missed a thing.

Coming soon
We'll throw a game thread up before today's game for those of you who like that sort of thing, and we're plugging away on a couple of historical trade deadline posts that we hope to be able to get done before tomorrow. Stay tuned.

Happy Canada Day to a depressed Blue Jay Nation

A couple of lifeless games against an AL East opponent has us wondering: How bad could this season get? The surprising hot start that saw the Blue Jays in contention in the first two months of the season is becoming increasingly faint in the rearview mirror, and the reality that the Jays are 10 games below .500 since May 19 has started to sink in.

Now, as we turn over the calendar page and look ahead to a brutal month of July, the prospects for the rest of the season are starting to look dire for the rest of the 2009 season. Moreover, we can't even remember the last "Pennant!!!1" or "Playoffs!!!1" in the comment section.

Nothing is ever easy in the AL East, and now that the Jays have squandered away their early season advantage, they'll have a rough time climbing back over that mountain.

Cripes. We need a vacation.

Say, that reminds us...
We're taking a vacation. We'll be off in the wilds of Northern Ontario for a few weeks without access to the interwebs or Twitter or (gasp!) television. So the most we can hope for is to catch some games on the radio, provided we can find a signal that reaches that far.

Otherwise, we'll be keeping abreast of Blue Jays news via the boxscores. Which could actually be fun.

This is actually the longest that we're going to be away from the blog since we started it, so we're not sure how long we'll be able to make it before running away from the in-laws and hitch hiking to the nearest internet café. We give ourselves at least a couple of hours.

The Ack, fresh off his recent trip to Toronto, will be stepping in to pick up the slack and keep the bloggage flowing until we're back on July 12. Treat him well, and enjoy the respite from our pedantic daily rantings, and we promise to come back refreshed and renewed and ready to face down the dog days of the season.

Cito's lineup madness continues...for the better?
The National Post's John Lott is reporting this morning that Vernon Wells will sport his spiffy Canada Day gear whilst riding the pines this afternoon. More impressively, Adam Lind in moving into the third spot in the order and Lyle Overbay will hit fifth. We wouldn't have guessed this in April, but Lind-Rolen-Overbay is the best looking heart of the order we've seen all year. Bring it on!

After hearing Jerry Crasnick note on the Drunk Jays Fans podcast that Wells got a shot in his wrist during spring training, it has us wondering if the struggling slugger is (for the second time in three years) playing like ten pound of shit in a five pound bag because he's trying to play through injuries.

If Vernon is hurt, then seriously, sit the man down. For a week. Or two. Whatever it takes.

On that subject, Fangraphs' Canadian connection Marc Hulet made the point yesterday that Cito is running his players into the ground, leading to diminished returns in recent weeks. While the numbers he presents most compellingly make the case that Marco Scutaro and Alex Rios might be wearing down, it's not totally clear that the same case can be made across the board.

But again: We defer to the guys who know the numbers, because we're much better with words. We were born to be a sophist.

Canada Day with the 1996 Blue Jays
Via Maclean's Jaime Weinman, here's a weird nugget: the Blue Jays lip-synching to a Canadianized version of "This Land is Your Land". Enjoy, and we'll see you back here soon.