Tweet Bag! Tweeted questions, blogged answered

Occasionally, we lose our train of thought, and we rely on your questions to provide us with the direction and focus necessary to pull together some entertaining blog tomfoolery. Once again, thanks for the help in bailing us out, because our addled brain had no way of conceiving of an entertaining and educational post today.

Now, onto your questions...EN GARDE!

@jonahkeri (yes, the actual guy, author of the forthcoming The Extra 2%, or at least someone with access to his Twitter account) poses the question: "Dave Stieb, best pitcher of the 80s? Discuss."

Timeframes are arbitrary things, even when they span ten full years. Some great pitchers (Tom Seaver, for instance) had their best decade of work in timespans that crossed over decades. Some got started late in the 80's (Orel Hersheiser), and some petered out by the end of the decade (Steve Carlton).

Nevertheless, if you want to be all arbitrary about things (and why wouldn't you, really?), you can start by looking at Stieb's WAR for the seasons 1980 through 1989. And you'll find that is a big, bright shiny 45.2. (45.2!!!1)

You know who put up a better WAR amongst pitchers in that timeframe? As Mel Lastman would say: Noooooooooooobody! Not "the most feared/winningest/opening day startingest pitcher of the 1980's, Jack Morris (27.9). Not Bert Blyleven (34.0, which is still an impressive number for a guy who most of his best seasons in the 70's and ABSOLUTELY belongs in the Hall of Fame). Not late starters Orel Hersheiser (32.8 for 1983-89) or Roger Clemens (32.3 for 84-89).

Hall of Famer Steve Carlton limped into his final years with a 25.6 WAR. Goose Gossage, the last pitcher inducted into the Hall, put up an 18.7 WAR for the decade, while fellow enshrinee Bruce Sutter managed a 10.8 in the 80's (which doesn't include his best season in 1979, if you want to abandon arbitrariness at this point). HoFer Dennis Eckersley, who split that decade between the starting role and the pen coughed up 23.9 WAR.

The last pitcher to be inducted into the Hall of Fame for their work as a starting pitcher in the Major Leagues? Nolan Ryan, who expressed a 30.8 WAR over the neon decade.

Our point? Using the best stat that we can think of to compare pitchers' performances for the decade, we find it hard to find anyone who touches our patron saint's incredible output. And if that's not clear enough: Dave Stieb is the Greatest Pitcher of the Eighties. (GPOTE!!!1)

Second point: For all of the High Moral Dudgeon (Bruntism!) that we hear about the steroid era, we also would note that the BBWAA seemingly has some hang up against starting pitchers, given their overwhelming aversion to voting them into the Hall of Fame. Stieb barely got any notice, while Blyleven has twisted in the wind for longer than we can remember, and Jack Morris (a flawed candidate, to be sure) remains unlikely to get to Cooperstown.

We'd suggest that the catchphrase should have been: Hacks Dig The Long Ball.

Next question!

@dpriest asks: Do you think the Jays could land Joe Maddon and Carl Crawford in the off-season?

Yes. But no. But then again, I might start a torrid affair with Zooey Deschanel by next year, even if we could never eat together given her vegan tendencies and aversion to gluten. Which is to say: Let's not put too much energy into such things, mmmkay?

@GValentino enquires (or is that inquires? What does CP Style say?) How would you feel about Bautista being moved to cleanup, Wells moved down? Why do you think this hasn't happened, other than THE MANAGER s.o.p?

We would absolutely advocate moving Bautista to the cleanup spot, but really only if there was an absolutely obvious three-hole hitter. But we're not sure that they have that now. (And our concept of that is a high-contact line-drive hitter with power, like Aaron Hill in 2009.)

If you were being totally orthodox about roles, the Jays have a whole bunch of number hitters on this team that they have to squeeze into other parts of the batting order, so we're not going to give The Manager more guff than he deserves over this particular choice.

More Manager questions have gotta be in this bag somewhere, right?

@timmyd_ asks: Is keeping Butterfield in the org worth giving him a shot as manager?

Interesting question, because we were asking ourselves something similar recently. If Butterfield is only going to stay with the team in a managerial role, do you hold onto him, even if he likely won't spend the same amount of time with the on-field instruction that seems to be his strength? Or do you let him go, losing all of that knowledge and insight, as well as a guy who seemingly gets along with many of the players.

It's a tough call, though we'd still prefer to keep him with the team if at all possible. We're thinking that a demonstrated excellence as an on-field instructor may be the sort of skill set that could be passed along to the next generation of Blue Jays coaches, making him an excellent choice to help build the future of the franchise.

All this talk about managers...my Manager sense is tingling...

@FakeCitoGaston pounces! Dear Stieb: Any advice on how I should run the front office without upseting this kid Alex too much? Beest says I have full veto

(First off, for those of you shocked to see that name in the blog, let us make clear that it was cut and pasted into this post. We did not type that name out, nor will we ever. That is our promise, and that is our pledge.)

Our advice to The Fake Manager is this: Be so subtle as to be indiscernible. Maybe even let AA do all of the stuff that he wants, and toss him a few bones so that he gets really comfortable making all the decisions himself. Then go out for some drinks with the Beest, play a few rounds of golf and let the little details take care of themselves. And when someone comes around asking for input on bobbleheads, you can look after that sort of thing without raising much of a fuss.

Take it easy...this front office gig is supposed to be a snap. Just don't put too much energy into. You've earned your golden parachute.

We're running short on time (left in your attention span...heyo!), so let's wrap it up with this:

@the_real_THF asks: I had a dream last night that the Jays finished the season with 88 wins. Feasible?

The Jays would have to rattle off a 17-8 run to the end of the season, which is certainly not impossible. Feasible? Well, considering that Brandon Morrow won't throw another pitch in anger, and that Marcum and Cecil might be watched in the next few weeks to make certain that every body is in good working order for when it really counts (i.e. 2011), we're not sure that the 88 win mark is going to work out.

Our guess? The Jays go 13-12 down the stretch and end the season with 84 wins. Though we're perfectly amenable with anything above that.

Sorry we couldn't get to all of your questions (discussions of Constituency Offices vs. Staffers on the Hill vs. Insane Voters vs. Noble Lobbyists will have to wait for another day, @s_findlay), but many thanks to all of you who stepped up to give us something to write about today. Keep those cards and letters coming.

Diversion vs Obsession

Once per season or so, I get to thinkin' and drop a blog post on the unsuspecting readership that goes beyond my standard & patented hackey bullshit. I'm not so sure it's a good thing, as I know those who choose to stop by on weekends here at the blog come for the entertainment and maybe a little discussion. So rest assured, I'll be back to my normal self in a week or so and off we'll go.....

See, I wasn't supposed to be around this weekend - taking a break to settle into a new routine at home (welcome #2, yo!) before resuming the stretch drive. Let me tell you - life has never been more challenging nor rewarding. I've never been more exhausted and content at the same time. I figured a few forced weeks away would be good for my life as a devoted Jays fan - more casual observer than obsessed follower. And so it went, for the better part of a week.

But during some blessed quiet time this evening, it occurred to me - I missed the daily diversion once I realized that's what baseball should be - a diversion. It's a great game, this baseball. As simple (see ball/hit ball) or complex (OPS, WAR, VORP) as you want it to be. Tao's post on The Shaker opened the floodgate of nostalgia for me: summer nights listening to Dave Stieb chase his no-no on the radio... a weekend at my grandparents, being lucky enough to watch the game when he finally did.... Tony Fernandez tossing rainbows from short.... Dave Winfield, Joe Carter. Holy shit, friends - those are memories.

I'm as guilty as the next of caring waaaay too much about the daily transactions and line-up cards of this team. I'm not so naive to think that's going to change, but a part of me wishes maybe it did. I sometimes wish I could be that guy who blindly defends Cito's moves, because, you know...2 rings. If not for the internet and all we know today, I could look at Vernon's old-school Avg/HR/RBI line and say "hey, not bad for our center fielder". I could have a gander at Kevin Gregg's gaudy saves total and without question appoint him the bullpen ace. But nobody said progress was without cost - in this case, emotional - and we're all smarter fans for it.

What's the point of all this? Fuck, I don't even really know, to be honest with you. Maybe that every once in a while, it does a soul some good to step away from your obsession and dial it down a notch. Maybe it's that being a fan in 2010 is most certainly not the same as it was in 1985. The point is not that one is "better" than the other.... just different. Hell, nothing's the same as it was in 1985, why should the game be?

I do know this - when it comes to a diversion, nothing beats baseball. And isn't that supposed to be the point?

Greatish Jays: The Shaker

As we're about to leave on a much-needed, much-deserved and far-too-short vacation tomorrow, it struck us that we'd better leave things on a much more happy and positive vibe. Somehow, leaving the angry, accusatory post with our absurdly confrontational, Bissinger-esque comments seemed unwise. Uncouth, even.

And so, we've reached backwards into our memory hole and picked up some of our happiest memories about the Toronto Blue Jays. And somehow, so many of them seem to involve the inimitable Lloyd Moseby, better known to you and I as The Shaker.

Moseby's numbers with the Jays don't always astound, in part because of his early years in which he was pressed into the lineup to gain much-needed experience at the Major League level. (Imagine this: Lloyd Moseby had 361 big league games under his belt before he turned 23. What a concept!) In his prime years (1983-1987), Moseby was a 117 OPS+, .811 OPS, 101 homer, 174 stolen base guy who played premium defense, and did it all with a smile and fun swagger.

Three other things we love about The Shaker in retrospect:

1) The hair/cap/helmet confluence: Moseby somehow managed to pull a cap over his sweet afro day in and day out, and would wear his batting helmet over top of his cap. (Not unusual in those days, but Moseby's combo was especially cool to see.)

2) The Power cleats: No one else that we know of wore what was then Bata's athletic shoe brand. But given Power's Canadian connection (Bata's headquarters were still in Canada at that time), we used to see Moseby's Power posters in sporting goods shops all the time.

3) The Shoestring Catch? Somehow, in our mind, we had built this into a seminal moment for the Blue Jays: Moseby comes on and makes an outstanding shoestring catch in the 1985 ALCS, only to get robbed of the call, causing the whole series' complexion to change. Except that the play actually happened in Game 2, in a game the Jays would go on to win in extra innings. The fact that we still hold onto that moment is probably a tribute to two things: The frustrating and spirit-crushing years after the 1985 ALCS but before the World Series wins, and the strict early bedtime to which I was compelled to adhere.

Obviously, there were better players in the Jays' history. But we're not sure that there is a player who we think of more fondly than Lloyd Moseby. There have been several centrefielders who you might prefer to play for your All-Time Jays roster, but if we were to sit in the stands to see such a team play, we'd be happiest to see the Shaker leading off and marshalling the middle of the outfield.

The Baseball Hall of Fame's Shameful Frick Sham

At 10 am today, the Baseball Hall of Fame launches the annual fan voting campaign for the Ford Frick Award, their recognition of career excellence in the field of baseball broadcasting. And while there are several broadcasters who we feel worthy of recognition, and whose enshrinement we would wholeheartedly support, we will not participate in the Hall of Fame's fraudulent mockery of the fans by voting on their Facebook page.

Before we go further, let's take a second to lay out precisely what the process for the Frick Award is: The fans click and click and click away over the next month, voting for their preferred candidates from the hundreds of broadcasters with more than 10 consecutive years of broadcasting experience. At the end of that month, someone scrapes off the top three names, and they are added to seven other finalists (whose provenance is unclear). Then, a jury of 20 individuals, including former Frick winners and baseball historians enters a star chamber and they select one of the ten names from that list.

And none of this is to suggest that the name that they will select this year will be someone who is unworthy. We're certain that there will be a segment of the baseball community who will be overjoyed at the selection, and somewhere deep down, we still carry a barely-flickering light of hope that Tom Cheek will be the name that they announce when that group emerges from behind closed doors.

If there were overwhelming support for a particular candidate amongst the fans, we suspect that it would only create more distance between their candidacy and the jury's affirmation. After seeing both Cheek and former Expos announcer Jacques Doucet fall short last season, in spite of outpacing the field with vote totals almost four times larger than the third place Joe Nuxhall, we can't imagine what sort of a groundswell of popular support would be necessary to put them over the top in the eyes of those who hold the only 20 votes that matter. We can't imagine a scenario where our votes are going to positively influence the voters towards our particular choices, and we actually fear that the fan's choices on the final ballot may carry a certain taint to them in the eyes of that august group

Call us cynical, but after years of hoping and wishing and campaigning for Cheek, we find ourselves unable and unwilling to participate in a program which is meant primarily to give the fans an illusion of input. There's nothing about the Hall's campaign that makes us think that our input is necessary or desired by anyone but a junior communications officer with the responsibility for social influence marketing. And we're not going to play along with this charade any longer.

If you feel like you want to contribute to the candidacies of Cheek, Doucet, Don Chevrier or any other baseball voice that you hold dear, and you feel as though the Facebook voting is the best that you can muster, then go ahead and vote. It sucks to feel as though you have no voice in something like this, and if the illusion set forth by the Hall of Fame is enough to assuage you, then have at it.

But if we're being a little more pragmatic about it, there are really only 20 people who are going to make the decision this year and for the years going forward, and the best bet that anyone has to get sneak Tom Cheek through the front door in Cooperstown is to positively influence those individuals.

So if you happen to run into Marty Brennaman, Jerry Coleman, Gene Elston, Joe Garagiola, Milo Hamilton, Jaime Jarrin, Tony Kubek, Denny Matthews, Dave Niehaus, Felo Ramirez, Vin Scully, Lon Simmons, Bob Uecker, Bob Wolff, Bob Costas, Barry Horn, Stan Isaacs, Ted Patterson or Curt Smith in the coming months, then put in a good world for your candidate of choice. It will be a much more effective use of your time than indulging the Hall's PR machine with your interest.

How wrong can one tweet be?
Speaking of the Frick: Yesterday, noted SPORTS JOURNALIST Steve Simmons tweeted the following:

"For the 8th straight year, the late Tom Cheek is nominated for Ford Frick HOF award. Maybe this is the year he finally wins."

Let's take a second here to break down all 140 characters here. First off, Cheek hasn't been nominated for anything yet. He's just eligible to be nominated, as are literally hundreds of other active and retired broadcasters. (Chip "Fisted!" Caray is on the same footing as Cheek at this point, just for the sake of clarity.)

Secondly, it is not the eighth year that Cheek has been nominated. Cheek has been eligible since 1984, and has been a finalist for the past five years.

But then again, we're just a blogger, so what do we know?

Thoughts on the weekend in a flash

Honouring our patron saint: It was great to see and hear so much about Dave Stieb this weekend, as everyone seemed to trip over themselves to find enough superlatives for the former ace. (If you missed it, there's a nice bit of ceremonial huzzahs available on the Jays site.)

It was especially interesting to hear Stieb in conversation with Jerry and Alan on the radiocast mentioning how Buck Martinez used to have to remind him to lay off on the slider and throw some fastballs here or there. Stieb also bemoaned his own approach on the pitches he threw that saw previous no-hitters get broken up. More than 20 years later, you can still hear him kicking himself for throwing a curve with perfection on the line.

And you'll excuse this cliché, but he does look as though he could go out and toss six solid innings tomorrow if he had to.

Less than perfect, Part 1: As was brought to our attention last week by email, the coveted Stieb bobble had a few flaws in it. Firstly, the cap was the wrong one (Jays wore solid blue caps on the road that season) and the jersey has the wrong lettering (road jerseys read "Toronto", not "Blue Jays".) So if you are superstitious enough not to talk about no-hitters and such in the middle of the game, maybe you'd agree with us that such flaws in the promotional swag were certain to doom yesterday's game for the Jays.

Less than perfect, Part 2: If you're more literal-minded, perhaps you're looking at the actual pitching in yesterday's game when assessing what went wrong. Last year's callup surprise, Marc Rzepczynski's output this year has been bad enough to make us forget how to spell his name. His mechanics, which were very tight last season, look completely messed up now. Last year, he threw a lot of strikes down in the zone to keep things under control. This year, he's having a hard time getting anything where it should be.

Especially telling was the pitch Rzep threw after a mound visit from José Molina with two balls and the bases loaded. After all of the shoulder rubs and "just chill and throw strikes" that his catcher could offer, Rzep still let his lead shoulder fly out and threw a mid-80's fastball a foot outside. Not good.

Who's next? With the announcement that Brandon Morrow is going to get an early end to his season (a very good call, in our estimation), and the possibility that Shaun Marcum might also see his innings limited in his first post-TJ season, the Jays will be looking for additional starting arms to pick up the slack.

And if that additional arm is Brian Tallet, we'll die a little extra on those days.

The smart money would seem to be on Bobby Ray, who pitched well last year in a brief time with the Jays, and whose innings aren't up particularly high because of some minor league DL stints. Brad Mills, who looks like a mess of messes on the mound lately, could also get some starts down the stretch. Canadian Shawn Hill might have also been an option, but he tossed just one inning in his last start and is coming off a long road back from injury, so he's a long shot.

But don't get your hopes up for appearances from Kyle Drabek: The New Hampshire Fisher Cats are headed towards the playoffs(!!!1), and he'll eat up his remaining innings at that level.

Jeremy Accardo would like to be heard: If you read the original Las Vegas Review-Journal piece (as opposed to some of the overheated clips from it that were tossed around on this side of the border), Jeremy Accardo doesn't sound so much aggrieved as he does frustrated and resigned with his lot in the Blue Jays' organization.

This might be forgotten at this point, but Accardo broke camp with the Jays, and promptly sat for two weeks in the pen. And though Accardo has put up respectable numbers in Las Vegas (especially considering the inflation inherent in pitching in that division of the PCL), he'll be hard pressed to get a sniff of the pitching rubber in the Bigs so long as The Manager is still wearing the windbreaker and crossing his arms in the dugout.

To be honest, we'd almost prefer to see Accardo go somewhere in the National League and get the opportunity to work in the back end of a team's bullpen next year. He's been painted as a bit of a jerk for his outspokeness, but we're inclined to think that he has the very same "hustle" and "heart" that the team likes to proclaim as primary values in its marketing campaigns.

Skills Travis Snider is developing by riding the pine

It's a little bit funny that a week or two ago, we were actually defending The Manager's decision to sit Travis Snider here or there as he tried to get at bats for all of his LF/DH types.

"Patience, my brothers! Cast away your thoughts of the future, and savour this moment! Leave tomorrow for tomorrow! The Stocky-Yet-Swift Pasty White Rosy-Cheeked Hope shall have his time! A day off won't kill him!"

In the moment, those sorts of thoughts seemed to make sense to us. To our way of thinking, a day off here or there wasn't going to impede his development that much. But for much of the last week, we've watched Snider cool his heels on the bench, waiting for his chance to go out and get his reps and at bats to help him learn and develop.

(Remember how well part-time employment worked for José Bautista through his development years with the Pirates? Probably not.)

Mind you, we're not a two-time World Series Champion Manager and we never had the opportunity to put the lineup card in the Gestetner machine and run off carbon copies night after night in that era, so we're probably no match for The Manager's baseball acumen. But if we tilt our head in just the right way, we can start to think like him, and see what value this time on the bench might offer to the franchise's single most important young player. Here's what we came up with in terms of mad skills that Travis is developing while sitting:

1. Rocking a hoodie: Shaun Marcum is obviously a leader on this team, and his intense hoodie-wearing must be some sort of key to the rotation's success. If Snider can apply himself, he might be able to spur the offense by chewing intensely on his hood's drawstrings.

2. High-fives: An important part of becoming a part of the team. If you see a guy who just got jammed on the first pitch and squibbed a weak grounder to second, but advanced the runner by one base, you'd best know how to get up to the top step and give a sincere fist bump to your returning hero.

3. Sunflower seed spitting: What happens if you're in the outfield, and you get a shell caught in your throat? You think you're gonna know how to hack up that carapace based on instinct and gag reflex?

4. Preparing for your close-up: You know the TV cameras are going to find you on the bench, and you need to prepare that steely, cold, detached-yet-emotionally complicated look that lets the fans know the depth of your soul, and the burning fire within. (Side benefit: This totally works on chicks too. Stare off intently beyond the bottle service table, and some lady is going to look upon you a wounded soul that needs solace. Mrroawr.)

5. Putting weight back on: You think you're going to keep hitting one-handed homers if you drop 20 pounds through the physical exertion of playing the field and running the bases? Forget that. Park your ass on the bench, dig into an O-Dog Combo and think about the days when Cecil Fielder was the most feared hitter in baseball.

6. Funneling your rage more productively: Because that needle-point isn't going to finish itself.

That's the best that we can figure. Feel free to add your own notions on the skills that Snider can develop from the dugout in the comments section below.

(Yes, as established yesterday, I am a comment whore.)

Friday Rock Out - The Jam, "In the City"
Consider this our Long Distance Dedication to The Manager: We wanna tell you about the young ideas.

The Ack is off on assignment this weekend, but we should be around to fill in as necessary. Have fun, and stay cool my babies.

Starting Pitcher Power Rankings, y'all!

It's been almost a month and a half since we last dropped some mad power rankings science on all y'all, and just a few things have happened in the interim. New(ish) faces! Near no-hitters! Awesomeness! Are you ready to read on and get down with this?

Oh, and just to mix stuff up a bit, we're looking at Win Probability Added as a key metric this time around. We don't know what it is or how it is tabulated, but it sounds really good, and we'd like to think that it adds a sprinkle of legitimacy to this made up chart.

Power Rankings! Go!

1. Ricky Romero
Previous Rank: 1. Numbers since the last rankings: 7 starts (team result: 4-3), 50.2 IPs, 36Ks / 13 BBs, 3.02 ERA, o.98 WPA.

Just keeps plugging away. Quietly consistent. Showing more endurance late in the season than he did last year. Has gone seven or more innings in all but one start over this span, and went six versus the Red Sox in that start. Assuming the Ace role, and owning it.

2. Brett Cecil
On the last episode: 3. The rundown: 7 starts (4-3), 46.2IPs, 3.47 ERA, 33/ 17 K/BB, 0.891 WPA

Keeping the ball down (finally!), and getting great results. Walks are still a little too high. A disaster start versus Angels keeps him from the top of the list.

3. Brandon Morrow
Back then: 2. Since then: 7 starts (6-1!), 41.1 IPs, 3.70 ERA, 58/17 K/BB, 0.776 WPA.

Threw possibly the most brilliant game in Jays history. Has had some sketchy outings around it, but looks to be settling into the rotation role. Sick stuff, but never looks to be overexerting.

4. Shaun Marcum
Previously: 6. What he do: 7 starts (team: 4-3), 43.2 IPs, 38 Ks / 6 BBs, 4.33 ERA, 0.319 WPA.

Putative number one starter, and still Mr. Staff Leader Guy. Incredibly articulated facial hair crafting. Long balls are an issue (seven over past seven starts).

5. Kyle Drabek
Back in the day: 4. Last ten slow jams: 63.0 IPs, 7-2 W-L, 51/22 K/BB, 2.57 ERA

Looks like he's gotten better as the season has gone on. 154 innings to date likely means he won't make it to Toronto, except maybe to hang with his future boyz. Hoping he never sets foot in Vegas. (Nashville!!!1)

6. Joel Carreno
Once upon a list: 10. 10 excursions, and then you get: 5-1, 51.2 IPs, 2.79 ERA, 65/8 K/BB

Surprise addition to last list. Climbs the charts based on ridiculous strikeout numbers. We're sure that the pseudo-scout blogs were already all over this guy, but you can add us to the Carreno Caravan.

7. Marc Rzepczynski
In those times: 5 In our times: 6 games, 4 starts, 20 IPs, 13/8 K/BB, 6.30 ERA, -0.221 WPA.

Looks wonky. Is not fooling anyone, and is depending on his defense. (Which isn't a bad thing, necessarily. But we're all about the strikeouts.)

8. Zach Stewart
Used to be: 9. Ten games add up to: 56.0 IPs, 3-1 W-L, 2.89 ERA, 42/22 ERA.

Like Drabek, stats look better as the year has gone on. We're hearing lots of love for him throughout the interwebs.

9. Brad Mills
The last time: 8 The evidence: 3 starts (3-0! Clutch!) 15.1 IPs, 5.28 ERA, 13/9 K/BB, 0.132 WPA

Got the call, and did his time with the team. A good first start versus Baltimore followed by a couple of weaker outings versus actual professional baseball teams.

10. Jesse Litsch
Then: 7. Before the breakdown: 4 starts (1-3), 22 IPs, 4.09 ERA, 9/6 K/BB, 0.062 WPA.

He's gone for now, and maybe for good. Likes to dump sugar-water over diabetics. Will be hard pressed to start next season in the rotation. Might be an option as a swing man. Wouldn't mind seeing him work out of the pen in minors to start the season.

McGriff Pennance, Overestimating Overbay, and the First Base Pantheon

(And before we get started, it's nice to be back. We were off in some of the loveliest places on earth, but we were working our ass off while there, and barely had a moment to spare. It's nice to be back here with you kids.)

In the midst of a bit of preemptive nostalgia for the presumably departing Lyle Overbay, we shot out a quick tweet last week speculating on the order of the pantheon of Blue Jays first basemen over the years: "Carlos, Olerud, Upshaw, Lyle. Right?"

Boy, were we wrong, and didn't you let us know it. We got dozens of responses that night (which we didn't see for another day or so) quite rightly haranguing us for leaving out Fred McGriff from that list. It was an honest oversight from a tired and overworked lad who had barely thought the notion through before he tossed it out.

That oversight shouldn't be regarded as a slight towards McGriff, nor should it be interpreted as an indication of our lack of regard for his contributions to the Jays. You might not remember it, but in the eve of last year's 17th/18th Anniversary Notalgia Orgy for the World Series teams, we made a bit of an impassioned plea for recognition of McGriff's part in the team's success in the late '80's.

Still, the backlash against our omission of McGriff (as well as John Mayberry, which is another good point) got us to thinking a little more about that pantheon of first baggers.

Looking back over the history of the team, there were really only six players who held down the position for any length of time: Mayberry, Upshaw, McGriff, Olerud, Delgado and Overbay. (Shea Hillenbrand and Eric Hinske need not apply here.) And a casual look back at their numbers (mostly OPS and OPS+) suggest that in our rush to canonize Lyle, we may have inadvertently underscored his underwhelming performance in comparison to those other names.

Here's what you get when you take that glance.

Career OPS as a Blue Jay:

Delgado - .949 (in 12 years, 1423 games and 6018 plate appearances)
McGriff - .919 (5 years, 578 games, 2322 PAs)
Olerud - .866 (8 years, 920 games, 3689 PAs)
Mayberry - .802 (5 years, 549 games, 2102 PAs)
Overbay - .800 (5 years, 693 games, 2731 PAs)
Upshaw - .762 (9 years, 1115 games and 4172 PAs)

OPS+ as a Jay:

McGriff - 153
Delgado - 142
Olerud - 130
Mayberry - 119
Overbay - 111
Upshaw - 104

(We'd love to supplement this with WAR as a Jay, but we haven't quite figured out that trick. Yet.)

So on that cursory look, you'd almost be left with the impression that Overbay rates as the second worst regular first baseman in the franchise history. (And don't even get us started on how Willie Upshaw has somehow become a legend in retrospect. We love the guy, but we clearly have no perspective on him.)

But don't get us wrong: We're not calling Overbay a bad player, and we're not going to go down the road of calling him out for not being a bigger power threat because "you gotta have that from your first baseman, right?" Lyle's greatest strength was his defense, which is hard to account for, though our memory tells us we'd rate him at the top of the list. (With a caveat that our remembrances of John Mayberry are vague at best.)

Still, looking at the top line numbers for those six guys, it's hard not to be left with the impression that our affection for Lylo and our desire to push him as one of the greats might have something to do with his historical proximity, and our desire to want to think kindly of him as we send him out into the world.

Just how close?

Coming off the heels of the Jays big 16-2 drubbing (and forgetting the extra-innings heartbreaker), I was left pondering this question:

Just how close are the Toronto Blue Jays to contending in the loaded AL East?

Is 2011 a pipedream? 2012 more realistic? Are we wrong to discount any serious wildcard run this season?

Let's dispatch the 2010 question first - a full 10 back with 40 games left to play leaves no room for error. None. That said, we're all fans here, so what the hell. Let's just call it a dream. Not an impossible dream (but close), but a dream nonetheless. So what of 2011?

Is it as easy as saying with the continued maturation of the pitching staff, a return to norms for Lind and Hill, and the development of young talent such as Snider and Arencibia....the Jays are instantly a part of the equation? Much as I'd love to blindly say "fuck and yes, that's all it will take", consider the following:

...the impending loss of John Buck. Look (to borrow a phrase from HTV), we're all excited about JP Arencibia and what he can do given a full season of starter at-bats, but John Buck has been providing all-star calibre play behind (or more importantly, at) the plate for the Jays. It's not wrong to be excited about JPA - not by any stretch - but it would be foolish to think that, in 2011, he'll provide more value to the team than the veteran already in place.

I don't think it's wrong to cash in on the career year of John Buck and collect the comp picks - it's all part of The Plan - but for next season, at least, it will likely be a half-step backwards.

...changes afoot in the bullpen. It's been a luxury Jays fans have come to take for granted - the team always seems to string together a pen that provides above average performance, and hasn't been a major concern for a number of seasons. But remove two of the constants in those bullpens - Scott Downs and Jason Frasor - and what do we have? Instead of looking to fill one, maybe two spots in the spring as has become custom, who are the locks for next season under the "everybody out" scenario? Shawn Camp? David Purcey? Casey Janssen? OK, those are nice pieces, but none provide "the hammer" and there are still spots to fill. I have confidence the team will again roll out a surprisingly strong group, but it's hard to ignore the fact that many a season has been derailed by a bad 'pen.

...holes on the corners. I'm not prepared to have the "one more year of Lyle" conversation - largely because I don't know which side of the fence I'm prepared to lean on - but let's assume his Toronto tenure is over. Who fits? Is it as easy as plugging in Adam Lind? Because if that's the answer, there has to be a backup plan in place juuuust in case he turns out to be a complete butcher around the bag. Just sayin'. And what of 3B? It's doubtful that AA is looking at E5 as one of his "core guys", and no serious contender is going to run Johnny Mac out at the position more than a few times a month.

...coaching staff turnover. With Cito, you know what you're going to get. Focusing on the good (let's play nice today), it's a team that will mash the shit out of baseballs, on-base percentage be damned. One thing about this club - they're rarely out of games with this power. Will the philosophy change under the new regime? Will there be a season of transformational flux from a new philosophy? And will the new dude purge the existing staff, bringing in his own Gary Denbo (nightmares) and sweeping MLB-unknown Bruce Walton under the rug while helping Butterfield pack his bags for Baltimore?

Not going to lie to you, friends, these thoughts are already beginning to cause me anxiety. And yes, I realize this isn't normal. It's probably best that I just sit back and enjoy the remaining 40 games on the schedule.

(At least the 20 or so I'll get to watch, anyway. )

And quickly...
Is it wrong that I'm enjoying the flavor that Jesse Carlson is bringing to an otherwise vanilla Blue Jays bullpen? Fist pumps, baby.

Apart from JPA, are there any September callups worth getting excited about? Maybe Brad Emaus? A surprise New Hampshire stick like Thames, Loewen, or Mastroianni? A Hechavarria sighting? Seems unlikely, but....Drabek?

If you don't keep up with John Lott, you should. He's carved out quite a niche keeping dibs on the Jays' minor league system, and his features in the Post are always worth a read.

Hey, y'know that killer August schedule facing AL East rivals that many thought would be the Jays undoing, causing the season to close on a sour note? 7-4 as of this writing vs the division, with series yet to come against the Yankees and Rays. No matter the outcome, Armageddon it was not.

A One-Sentence Post on...Creeping Canadianism

If you were looking for a sign that José Bautista is beginning to take on some of the characteristics of his temporary homeland, you can look past the hoser mustache and observe the manner in which he stopped to politely and fastidiously pick up the various and sundry shards of woods after a late-inning, post-strikeout freakout, leading us to imagine GordieBau excusing himself profusely to the home plate umpire: "Sorry 'bout that, eh."

The Tao's Contrarian Corner

In which your generally agreeable blogging pal suddenly gets all up in yo' grill over hot topics amongst the Blue Jays fan base.

You say: Rogers is a bunch of evil bastriches for moving more than half of the Jays remaining games to their just launched Sportsnet One service, denying the team's fans the opportunity to watch them at precisely the moment when interest in the team is blowing up. Money-grubbing iceholes!

We say: Save some of your consternation for your local TV service provider. By dropping all of your rage into Rogers' lap, you make it easier for them to bide their time and delay carrying the channel. And think about it this way: If your cable provider were to day "Fuck it. We're gonna drop A & E, so you'll have to find other ways to watch Intervention and Tanya Memme's spectacular rack on Sell This House", you wouldn't blame A & E for not getting carried, would you?

This is all part of a dance, and Bell and Shaw (who also own or are about to own CTV/TSN and Global respectively) would very much like to see the kids on Jarvis and Bloor twist in the wind for a while as payback for some prior tomfoolery.

Bottom line: Quietly seethe at Rogers for their timing, but call your cable provider like an angry Springer guest until they carry Sportsnet One if you want to see your Jays games anytime soon. Because the idea that the cableco's aren't going to move on this until hockey season is so depressing.

You say: Where the hell is J.P. Arencibia? And why isn't he playing everyday? He should just be playing in AAA as opposed to sitting on the bench!

We say: There's more to a catcher's development than getting reps and at bats. Spending time with the coaches, the pitching staff and the other catchers is an important aspect of JPA's initial stint in Toronto.

Yeah, his first game was pretty spectacular, and he's looked great throwing guys out on the basepaths. But we'd like to see him learn to put up as better target (which, as Drew pointed out, might not be his strongest suit.)

(Secondary thought here: Would it kill JPA to have a glove and chest protector that are different colours? Sometimes on screen, his black glove seems to get lost in his black chest protector. We're sure that the pitchers have a better view of it that we do, but still...would it kill him to grab a Lance Parrish signature mitt to give his boys a bright, unmissable target?)

Also, JPA's first magical game featured him swatting lots of first pitches into the heliosphere, but his subsequent games have seen him get jammed on those early pitches. Wouldn't hurt the kid to take a couple of pitches and work a count here or there.

And all of this is a lot more convincing after watching José Molina go 4-for-4 last night. Oh, you didn't see that? Oops. Sorry.

You say: It's a TRAVESTY and a DISGRACE that Travis Snider isn't playing every day. Future of the franchise! Pasty White Hope! Rosy-Cheeked Phenom! Let him play! Let him play! Let him play! Let him play! Let him play!

We say: The Manager actually has a wealth of productive bats from which he can construct his lineup, which means that Snider and FredDotLew are going to end up sitting maybe more than you feel is necessary. But we actually think that The Manager has done a good job of making sure that everyone gets ABs, and we'd tend to agree with his move to keep JoBau in right field rather than switching him to third and getting Edwin Encarnacion out of the lineup.

Oh, and BTW y'all: Since Snider's return on July 30, he's put up a .736 OPS in 48 plate appearances. EE? .809 OPS in 55 PAs. Just so you're not mistaken.

You say: The format of this blog post makes you think of Lisa Loeb, and that's not a good thing.

We say: Lisa Loeb is kinda hot. We're still not over her. She's so cute, prancing around coquettishly in that little dress. *Sigh*.

Depth in the formula

"The focus for us is to have a club that will have a sustained run of contention."

Boom. That's the money quote, right there. And now that it's seemingly starting to come together for our (yeah, "our"...you heard me, Wilner!) Toronto Blue Jays, it all seems so simple, doesn't it?

Build your big league club and organizational depth around young, cost-controlled pitching, and the rest will take care of itself. Dedicate assets to it. Make it a priority. You can never have enough. There is no such thing as a surplus. All the cliches apply.

....and they apply because they're all true. There's no such thing as a 5-man rotation. Not for 162 games, anyway. In a world where even the casual fan understands the implications of the phrase "Tommy John surgery", a steady supply of starting arms is no longer simply a luxury, it's a requirement. And if you happen to be so lucky as to escape the season relatively unscathed - you're probably the only one. Which means rival GM's will come calling, and you can name your price.

Friends, this is why I'm high on the future of the club. Under Anthopoulos, the Jays are well on their way to being there. Inheriting Ricciardi-era arms such as Marcum, Romero, and Cecil, Anthopoulos has added to the team's core strength by dealing for emerging ace Brandon Morrow and top prospect Kyle Drabek, and dedicating his first draft to further bolstering the arms race.

And just when you think you've got the near-future rotation all figured out (Marcum, Romero, Cecil, Morrow, Drabek...with maybe a spring push by Stewart), along comes Marc Rzepczynski tossing his hat (along with bowling-ball sinkers and well-placed offspeed pitches) into the ring.

So, yeah. I think AA might have it figured out. Mix in a core of young (and young-ish) hitters smashing the ball all over the park, a few well-timed and reasonably played upside trades (Wallace vs Gose), a blatant rip-job here and there (Morrow! Escobar!), a renewed dedication to scouting in general (fuck slot!) and Latin America specifically (Adeiny!)....and we just might be onto something here. Whether that "something" is the playoffs remains to be seen, but I'm optimistic.

Given the way the team is playing and the organization as a whole is improving...how can you not be?

More on RZep...
I stand firm in my belief that Kyle Drabek will be in the team's rotation plans next season - whether it's right outta' spring or a month or two in (arb clock...), which means that, barring trade or injury, there's no room in the rotation for Rzepczynski.

But he absolutely has to figure into the club's major-league plans next season, doesn't he? Would it be an egregious waste of his talents to assume a middle relief/spot start role - ie: a rich man's Brian Tallet? The value of such a pitcher can often go wildly overlooked - they're the dudes in the pen you don't notice unless they're getting lit up - and Rzep (though over-qualified) would fit the bill nicely.

Nice problem to have, isn't it?

...Less on JPA
How quickly the tides have turned. After following up one of the better big league debuts in, oh, history with a couple of 0'fers, seems JP Arencibia has earned back-up duties under the watchful eye of Cito The Manager Clarence.

Then again, it's tough to argue with lineup decisions when the club is playing as they are. So I'll hold off. For now.

Is The Manager the Manager of the Year?

Okay, we'll give you a second to gather yourself after reading the title of this post.

You okay? Alright? Do you want a glass of water? Do you need some air? Here: Why don't you sit down for a moment.

Tweeter Kyle Darbyson (@starbyson, y'all!) suggested earlier that we make the case for The Manager to take home the hardware at the season's end as the league's best bench boss. And as we read it, we're not sure if he was being funny, or if he was completely earnestly looking for us to make the case.

And here's the weird thing: We think we might even be able to make that case.

Let's back up a second, and get something out there before we indulge in this excercise: We're actually not a big fan of this sort of award. Throughout all professional sports, the Coach/Manager of the Year award is generally given to someone who has a team that everyone presumes will kinda suck but that doesn't quite suck all that much. In some ways, it's barely even a reflection on the job that the person has done at all...It's mostly just an attempt to account for the difference between what was expected based on the team's perceived talent and what was delivered.

The answer to that particular bit of arithmetic is almost always assumed to be the non-player personnel who is closest to the game. In fact, you almost always hear this conversation start around two-thirds of the way through the season, with pundits saying: "I tell you what: You look at the job that Lindy Ruff/Eric Wedge/Sam Mitchell/Dave Tippett/Felipe Alou has done with this team, and I think you've gotta give him serious consideration for the Manager of the Year/Jack Adams Trophy."

(Seriously: At some point this February, Darren Dreger is going to look away from the dozen members of the NHL on TSN panel and stare gravely into the camera and say something almost precisely like the statement above, and act as though he doesn't make the same rote argument year after year. And then he'll light up a stogie with a five dollar bill and head out into the Agincourt night, doing donuts in the parking lot while checking his Blackberry. Prick.)

Sorry, we kinda lost track of ourselves there for a second.

If you wanted to take this from that typical point of view, then yeah, we think there is probably a good argument for The Manager to get...(clearing throat)..."serious consideration for the AL Manager of the Year." In the Junior Circuit, the Jays are probably the team with the greatest discrepancy between what was expected of them and what they've actually delivered. However, since the Jays are too far out of contention at this time, it seems unlikely that the Jays' skipper would get much more than a passing thought. Especially not when you have a ready-made triumph over coked-out adversity story that is probably already written for you if Ron Washington gets the nod.

Does the Manager deserve consideration? Well, here's what we can say about him...and believe us when we tell you that we've softened considerably on him the closer he gets to leaving the dugout for good: We think that The Manager has surrounded himself/been surrounded with an excellent staff, and that he deserves credit for empowering Brian Butterfield, Dwayne Murphy, Pappy Walton, Rick Langford and Omar Malave over the past year. We want to see the Jays bring each and every member of the field coaching staff back next year, and we hope that whoever they name as The Manager's successor will not feel the need to shake up the staff to suit his own needs.

Moreover, we're actually kinda impressed with the degree to which The Manager has shown some flexibility on the lineups, and that we haven't found his bullpen management to be over atrocious. (It took him a while to come around on David Purcey, but he got there in his own time.) Plus, seeing The Manager give as good as he got to Kevin Gregg, making the thin-skinned jar-headed closer's eyes well up and throat tighten in the post-game interviews was something of a highlight, and likely necessary to beat the delusion out of his pitcher's overgrown noggin.

So when you add up all of that faint praise, does the sum equal a Manager of the Year trophy? Probably not. Maybe. Really, who cares?

Friday Rock Out - LCD Soundsystem
Woop woop. Hands in the air. The weekend's here.

Tasty morsels

(The image above was swiped from gourmeted.com. In case you hadn't heard, meats don't clash. Miam miam.)

We've probably spent too much time sharing with you our Pollyanna-ish enthusiasm for the present and future of the Blue Jays. So to give you a rest and to cleanse your pallet from our sugary-sweet concoctions (and to give us a break from thinking), here are some other savoury bits of knowledge.

Birds of a feather: It scares us to think that we might have just about the same thought process as the Drunks' Dustin Parkes (we kid!), but his internal dialogue from the past couple of days pretty much sums up what we were thinking. Blerg.

Downs views: Drew picks up one of the loopier lines of thought brought up in his liveblog on Tuesday, which asked whether if the Jays might retain the services of Scott Downs in the future. Also, he put this Sam Cooke song in our head.

Overbay, over and out? MLBTR passes on the news that Lyle Overbay has passed through waivers. We've got a post brewing on his time in Toronto, how we've grown attached to him, and how he was like an endtable that occasionally brought the room together. (Note: Metaphors may change without notice.) It wouldn't surprise us at all to see him move before the end of the month.

Big TV numbers: The Star's Zelk notes that the Jays pulled in more than 760,000 viewers - roughly twice the normal audience - for Sunday's near no-hitter. The Jays have put up pretty good numbers all year, which may or may not be due to the new PPM ratings systems. It will be interesting to track those numbers in the next few years, as the Jays' worth to Rogers rests primarily in their value as a television property.

Sportsnet One, Sportsnet None? Speaking of Rogers and ratings, don't be surprised to see bulk of Jays games move to the new national service Sportsnet One. (They've already announced that 25 games for this season will head to the new service.) The unspoken second half of this equation is the question of how long the other cable companies will drag their feet on carrying the new service. So if you're on Shaw, ExpressVu, StarChoice, Videotron or whatever, don't say we didn't warn you that you might get frozen out of some coverage in the short term.

And one more Rogers gripe: Any chance that the kids at Rogers are going to get going and launch Baseball TV anytime soon? Or ever? Considering the availability of the Big 10 Network, CBS College Sports TV, Golf, Speed, Poker, Harness Racing, Fishing, and the league-run entities of the NBA, NFL and NHL, it would be nice to think that we just might have access to a 24 hour baseball channel in time for the long winter offseason.

Random Quik Hits

Still geeked: Off days are never fun, in part because they remind you of what life is like in the offseason. (We totally stole that sentiment from a tweet by someone yesterday.) But given all of the ridiculous fun that we all had over the weekend, maybe we needed an extra day to savour what we'd just seen and let all of the past week's happy thoughts stay with us one more day.

Bring on Boston: After pillaging their way through the top two teams in the American League, we can think of no better way for the Jays to keep the good times rolling than to have the Red Sox roll into town. With the rotation making its way back to the putative top, we're anxious to watch RickRo, Marcum and Cecil pitch like men against Boston.

The Chase for Fifth!!!1: In case you'd forgotten, we're all about the Jays catching Boston and ending the season as the AL team with the best record who didn't make the playoffs. Sure, you can scoff at this goal as underwhelming...but if the Jays sweep the Red Sox in this series, they'll sit a game back in the Chase for Fifth!!!1

J.P. Arencibia's Accent Portends Awesomeness: After hearing a few interviews with the Greatest Blue Jays Since Scott Rolen (GBSSR!!!1), most of us seemed puzzled by the odd lilt in his voice. Is he Dutch? Swedish? Some odd Cajun/Slovenian mix? As it turns out, Arencibia's folks are Cuban, and he has somewhat of a touch of Spanish to his English. But what is particularly awesome is that Arencibia is apparently fluently bilingual, and spent his first few days floating between the Anglos and Latinos in the Jays clubhouse.

We've been on this language hobby horse for a while now, and if it offends your Libertarian sensibilities to think that language skills have any importance in the workplace, then fine. Mange d'la marde, mon gros toxon. But if we're hearing that the franchise's soon-to-be primary catcher is conversant in both English and Spanish at precisely the moment where the team is looking towards international signings as their key to competing and building, then that would seem to us to be an awfully good thing. We know that grunts and hand gestures and clipped sentences whatnot might work for some, but we can't help but feel like this will be an asset to the team going forward.

Poor Fred Lew: We're not sure what's going to happen with Vernon Wells' toe (which is apparently not broken, just dislocated). But with Wells potentially out of the lineup, it seems to us that Fred Lewis might find himself parked on the bench for the next stretch. Lewis doesn't play the field well enough to sub in at centre, and we imagine that Wells' absence will mean more time for Dewayne Wise and Travis Snider in the short term.

Wait a second: As much as we've softened on him lately, why would we assume any rational action from The Manager?