The first thing that struck us as we looked at Brian Dopirak's outstanding numbers in the minor leagues this year is how much they look like J.P. Arencibia's from a year ago. To wit:
In 2008, Arencibia hit 27 homers and drove in 105, posting a .322 OBP and a .527 SLG (.850 OPS) in a season split between Double-A New Hampshire and Triple-A Syracuse.
In 2009, Dopirak hit 27 homers and drove in 102, posting a .371 OBP and a .549 SLG (.921 OPS) in a season split between Double-A New Hampshire and Triple-A Las Vegas.
In spite of the promise that the Jays' (excuse us for saying this) Catcher of the Future showed last season, Arencibia's offense dropped off significantly enough to qualify as a disappointment. Despite the move to alleged offensive haven of the Pacific Coast League, Arencibia's tallies for 2009 fell across the board (21 HRs, 75 RsBI, .282 OBP, .444 SLG, .728 OPS).
It bears mentioning that some reports say that Arencibia has improved his defense, and it is possible that an increased emphasis on his position behind the dish contributed to some drop off at the dish. Also, Arencibia's numbers began to improve over the final stretch (.789 OPS in August, .920 OPS in one week's worth of September), including a red-hot final 10 games (6 homers and 15 RsBI), so maybe there is room to hope.
Dopirak's 2009 season was actually stronger than Arencibia's 2008 given his higher rate stats, and the much higher OBP would give you the impression that those are numbers that will be far easier to replicate in the coming seasons. Still, one great year in the minors isn't any sort of assurance that Dopirak could even reproduce the same numbers in a full season of Triple-A, much less in the Bigs.
We'd love to think that Dopirak could make that step, and become something resembling what Lyle Overbay used to be: A doubles machine and a run producer. But at this point, we just don't feel like we can put all that much stock in what Dopirak's done.
FML Update: Aww, fuck me. Of course the Drunks go down exactly the same road as me on Dopirak on the same day, and get their post up before mine.
Well fuck it: I don't have an infinite amount of time to convince the handful of anonymous jag offs that I don't just copy/paste their posts into my blog. So I'm not going to start from scratch, because chances are that whatever I write next will be covered off somewhere else.
If it bothers you that we're writing about the same fucking things all the time, then just read their blog and leave me alone.