Draft Analysis: We want you as a new recruit

Hey man, cut us some slack here, will ya?

Sure, we could put on our most authoritative voice, and write a lengthy post on relative merits of this year's draft. We could fake it to the best of our abilities, and then point to the aspects of our guesswork that came true as proof of our insight. But given that we're still smarting from the spanking that we took from those who questioned our literary bona fides this weekend, we're going to avoid any puffery and play along like the happy fool that we are.

(And no, Meredith, we're not going to let this go. You hurt our feelings. Harrumph.)

So join us as we look at the draft, shake our head like a Magic 8 Ball, and see what floats to the top.

First Round, pick 11 - Deck McGuire, RHP, Georgia Tech: It was funny after the fact to hear Keith Law proclaim on last night's Prime Time Sports that the Jays probably wouldn't pick him, given his supposed low ceiling. Not that we're harshing on the KLaw or anything...Just that we figured that his thought process would be similar to that of just about every Jays fan that we heard from or saw on Twitter: A lower-ceiling college dude? No way! The Ghost of J.P. live on!

They say ("they" being the draftologists and experts that allegedly really know this shit) that Deck profiles as a number three starter with a shorter (two-year) trip to the Bigs. Given the guys who we have under control for the next three to four years, having a good third starter shouldn't be looked upon as a bad thing, especially when he might serve as your number five.

Plus, he's tall. And you can't teach tall.

(And as a side note: Our inner Chris Berman has gone nutty cuckoo coming up with bad nicknames for Mr. McGuire: "Upper" Deck? "Back" Deck? "Poop" Deck? "Captain's" Deck? "Flight" Deck? "Gun" Deck?)

Compensatory Round Picks - RHPs Aaron Sanchez, Noah Syndergaard, Asher Wojciechowski: Our initial thought was that Alex Anthopoulos felt that since the Jays blogosphere has managed to master the spelling of his name and that of Marc Rzepczynski, we need a new challenge. Well, we say bring it on.

Also, we shall refer to the latter two picks a Syndy and Wojo from here on out.

Someone asked us on Twitter why the Jays were going so heavy on pitching in the draft, and our response was that you need 12 arms on your roster at any given time (even if The Manager uses just nine), and it never hurts to add some additional depth to the pitching in your system. And while we might just be making this up, it seems to us that you can trade for a bat later on to fill out your lineup more easily than you can a pitcher.

The Rest of the Draft So Far: Some more pitchers, one of whom we'd guess surprises us all and becomes the real jewel of this draft. (Our guess is Sam Dyson. Just because.)

The first Canadian picked by the Jays came with the 113th pick overall, which we're certain is way too late for Bob Elliot's liking.

Nevertheless, outfielder Marcus Knecht looks like at least a reasonable gamble. Also, the music in his MLB.com video is fonkalicious.

Also, the Jays have just picked Dickie Thon Jr., and for those of us who remember Dickie Thon, that's kinda awesome. Kinda makes us feel old too.

Accentuating the positive

We're nothing if not a beacon towards positivity, right?

(And those of you who know really me are probably trying to figure out if that's a laugh line or not...Although we'd point out that in the cynical, angry world of sports blogdom, we're pretty happy, sunshiney and positive. Or at least we look that way in comparison to others.)

So, if we were to be something less than positive, we'd point out that in two key series this week, the Jays walked away having not made up any ground, and find themselves tied with the resurgent Red Sox. So there's the missed opportunities.

But since we're eliminating the negative and latching onto the affirmative here, let us point out that our boys hung tough in every game against the two best teams in the league, and were in a position to win each and every one of them. And with some bullpen work that was a little more assertive or better orchestrated, they may well have done it.

All of which augurs well for the last three games of this nine-game stretch, which was supposed to tell us something of something about this team. Maybe it's telling us that they're worth watching, and that they're not that far from actually carrying this sort of performance through the entire season.

And now, a few quick hits...

Wilner's unplanned vacation
We were as shocked as anyone when we heard that the Fan 590 bounced Mike Wilner out of his seat for the weekend, ostensibly to remind him to play nicer with The Manager. We have no doubt that Wilner can abrasive to some, and his confidence in his arguments can be read as arrogance by some. But the "suspension" or spanking and or whatever this is makes us wonder what they are thinking at the Fan.

They should probably understand what they have in Wilner, and why his stubborn dedication to reason and his unwillingness to buy into mawkish cliché is precisely his appeal. Tamping that fire down in order to keep The Manager happy is a recipe for boring, awkward radio.

(Which supposes that this was a Fan 590 call, and not from somewhere above. We'd love to hear Handsome Tony explain this as all a part of his master plan.)

(Also, check Neate Sager's take over on Out of Left Field, which is a nicely nuanced analysis of the situation.)

On book reviews
If you are planning on buying any particular books that we're perhaps reviewed around here, and you'd like to hold us to account for our overly generous estimations of a particular tome, we'd suggest that you perhaps take a read through this post. We pretty much put all of our cards on the table, and fessed up to being an entirely unreliable critic. So don't come looking for an explanation for our bad taste in athlete memoirs.

On the rotation (which is awesome) and the bullpen (which is less so, we think)
Before the season, some folks wanted to tear down the Jays' post-Doc rotation as a bunch of no name chuck-and-duckers, which might have been more of a reaction to the lack of a certifiable ace than the actual talent available to the Jays.

But after watching the Jays' top four hurlers shine against two of the best offenses in the game, we'll have to admit to getting way ahead of ourselves in considering the possibilities in the coming years. Marcum, Romero, Cecil and Morrow are all young, and may well have their best years ahead of them. And when we rattle the names off in our head, and consider the possibility of adding another quality arm to that list (Drabek? Rzep? Mills?), we'll confess to getting ahead of ourselves, and envisioning their names being pored over across the continent as a playoff team's probable pitchers.

(And really, Shaun Marcum was born to pitch in the playoffs, wasn't he?)

It's really to bad that we end up crashing back to earth when considering the performance of the bullpen. It's not that they've been awful: Kevin Gregg's actually been pretty good, notwithstanding his game of footsie with the strike zone against Tampa the other night, and we've officially come around on Shawn Camp. But Scott Downs continues to look as though his best days are behind him, and Jason Frasor hasn't yet shown the velocity or movement that made him a success last season.

Meanwhile, The Manager continues to mismanage his assets, and treats his seven man relief corps as though he has only four arms out there. Rommie Lewis, David Purcey and Casey Janssen are given as much rest as most of the starters while the other four relievers are run into the ground.

Even with the economical performances put on by the starters, that sort of wear and tear on the pen is going to catch up with this team, if it hasn't already.

The Draft
We'd totally forgotten that the MLB draft kicks off tonight. In previous years, we may have spent the whole afternoon poring over names and the possibilities for the Jays' four early picks. But given that player development is a gruesomely tiresome and long process, we'll just sit back and let the names of the prospects wash over us this evening, while we consider the progress of Kevin Ahrens.

Get them to sign on the line that is dotted!

As Alec Baldwin's character in Glengarry Glen Ross noted, "Only one thing counts in this life: Get them to sign on the line which is dotted!"

And so, we follow along with the news of 2009 draft picks who are dragging out their decisions on signing until the last possible second, which is to say tonight. Or today. Whatever.

We're following the action over at Jim Callis' Baseball America Draft Blog, where most of the signings are being broken. If you've got better things to do than to hit refresh on a web page all afternoon, then check out our Twitter thingy (@TaoofStieb) and we'll probably be cursing and swearing about stuff over there.

Also notable: Stoeten of the Drunks has a good post summarizing what's happened so far (Jays going way over slot for later round picks), and what is likely to happen (Good Canadian boys don't sign with the Canadian team, even though they're good Canadian kids and the Jays should have been drafting lots of good Canadian boys all along because they're good Canadians and they'll make the good Canadians in the stands feel good about being Canadian, as we all revel goodly in our Canadianness.)

Pitching Bonanza! The Summer of Tallet, injured pitchers, and drafted pitchers

Are you all on board with the Summer of Tallet yet? Because after last night's seven innings of two-hit shutout ball against the Swingin' Rangers of Arlington, you really should be.

Since getting blowed up real good against the Royals back in April (and sucking up that shit kicking for the good of the team and the overworked bullpen), Tallet has been solid and has given more than anyone would have guessed. In his last eight starts, Tallet has posted a 3.12 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP, with opposing hitters posting a measley .551 OPS against him in 52 innings.

And to think that Tallet's name was tossed around in the off season as the throw in that we'd give to anyone if they gave us a mediocre shortstop or Mencherson-type back.

While we are praising Tallet and his unmatched will to make this Summer his own, let's take a moment to recognize the fact that it was one John Paul Ricciardi who grabbed this guy for the low low price of a minor leaguer named Bubbie Buzachero.

Yes, this is the same J.P. who you've all fired a dozen times a week over the past seven years because of his five-year plans (no planning!) and his home address in Worcester and his reticence to share his phone number and his lack of respect for Reed Johnson. And J.P. is such an idiot that he actually got Bubbie Buzachero back in the system (1.04 ERA, two saves, 17 Ks / 3 BBs in New Hampshire)...so essentially, we got Tallet for nothing and Bubbie for free.

Drafting Pitchers Like Gallileo Dropped an Orange
The Jays loaded up on pitchers like it was going out of style in yesterday's MLB Draft. The Jays started off with Kennesaw State pitcher Chad Jenkins (Mr. Handsome, as Parkes called him) with the 20th pick in the first round before grabbing Scott Boras client James Paxton with the 37th pick. Paxton is lanky left-handed pitcher and a good Canadian boy to soothe the more parochially-minded of the fan base (and, as Jeff Blair noted, the Rogers folks.) A high-ceiling Canadian may well be worth the Jays going over the slot recommendations, as it seems likely that they'll have to.

(And won't it be fun to have a Boras client around these parts?)

The Jays grabbed another Canadian lefty, Newmarket's Jake Eliopoulos, with their next pick (68th overall), and Arizona high school pitcher Jake Barrett with the 99th pick.

And now, we sit an wait patiently for five years for these guys to make their way to the big leagues, and then another year after they blow out their arms. Fun!

The Drunk Jays Fans have a much better breakdown of the draft that we do, with lots of links and video, so go there for more information. We don't like to duplicate their efforts.

Another arm bites the dust
Whenever forearm tightness is mentioned for a pitcher, you pretty much bide your time and wait for the inevitable announcement that they're going to go under Dr. James Andrews' knife. Such is the case for Jesse Litsch, whose impending TJ surgery was confirmed yesterday. The Star is reporting that it could take 18 months before Litsch brings his transferred ligament back to the bigs, so here's wishing him a pink, round and efficient recovery.

In praise of Dirk Hayhurst
Last night was the first time that we got to see our springtime mancrush Dirk Hayhurst take the mound for the Jays, and he looked great in a clean frame, striking out one batter. Too bad he's not still blogging, because we'd love to see what he has to say about life in the Toronto clubhouse. (Feel free to drop us a line, Dirk!)

Intertwined threads - The MLB Draft and the Jays-Rangers

Hey! Are you like us? (If so, good for you!) No, but really, do you like the baseball, with the pitching and the hitting and the drafting? Well then have we got a deal for you!

It's a double-sided, two-in-one, totally integrated, intertwined, interdimensional Game and Draft Thread. This should be...interesting?

(Although let's be honest: Our knowledge of the amateur baseball talent pool ranges somewhere between none and SFA. So we'll be making up our opinions on the fly. As per usual.)

The most fun part about this evening is that we get to watch the draft online and pretend for an evening that the MLB Network is available in Canada. It would be really nice if someone at Rogers (Tony? Rael? Guys?) could look into getting this on the air for us soon. But we'll settle for them telling Bud Selig to keep his filthy money and paying above slot for tonight's draft picks.

(For this year.)

Hey, there's a ballgame on too!
As for the game: The Summer of Tallet continues, against Doug Mathis, who has precisely one inning of Big League action this year. It's play ball time sometime around 8ish.

Vernon Wells Sr. shares your frustration
When we ask, we apparently receive.

(And if that's the case, please send along a pristine copy of Crash Vegas' now-out-of-print Red Earth. Thanks.)

Earlier today, we mentioned that we wished that we had a screengrab of Vernon Wells Sr.'s reaction to his sonny boy staring at strike three. Well, a fine and noble man amongst you went and found it for us:

Exactly.

Finally, some good news from the Beeston Era v2.0

It's fair to say that I had unrealistic expectations upon hearing the news that Paul Beeston was taking over as "interim" (more on that later...) President of the Jays. After all, Beeston was the guy at the top during the glory years of '92 and '93. Surely he'd be the guy to set the Jays back on course to greatness, yes?

Given those unrealistic expectations, it's safe to say that I've been completely underwhelmed to date - more my own fault than the Beest's, to be sure - but a $20M payroll cut (however you'd like to position it) didn't exactly do a whole lot for consumer confidence.

So this morning I'm skimming through the usual plethora of bullshit spring training stories, when I came across this fairly nondescript article. Nondescript, that is, except for this little nugget discussing the draft and player development:

The Blue Jays, under interim CEO Paul Beeston, intend to become even more aggressive in that regard by employing a new willingness to pay signing bonuses above Major League Baseball recommendations. That was a big no-no under old president Paul Godfrey and the shift in philosophy may help Ricciardi secure more high-end talent.

"That's definitely going to be an area we look at differently," said Ricciardi. "The gloves are off."

Whaaaaa?

The Blue Jays going over slot in the draft?

Whaaaaa?

I'd tell you that I'm speechless, but that wouldn't make for much of a post now, would it? Instead, I'll tell you that this is exactly the kind of strategy a team should be employing if they can't (or won't) compete on payroll at the major league level - or maybe more specifically, in the AL East.

I suppose we shouldn't get ahead of ourselves, because seeing is believing when your GM has a penchant for, how shall we say, half-truths. The draft goes the first week of June. You're on the clock, JP.

If you're not following Jeff Blair's exhibition game live blogging, you should be
.....and I'm here to tell you why. I've followed along for the last few games via the Globe site, and here are a few pearls of wisdom somewhat innocuously passed along by ol' Blairsy:

• Reclamation project #2,426 Matt Bush possesses a nails slider, and the team thinks he can be a contributor given enough innings in the minors
• While Cecil is the guy getting all the pub - everyone in management loves them some Brad Mills
• Buck Martinez despises Blair - for calling him the worst manager he's ever covered (awesome)
• Blair hints the Jays will move a relief arm before the season, and later subtly drops that the Jays like Tigers minor league SS Mike Hollimon. Hmm....Jason Frasor and Johnny Mac (I just have a bad vibe about Mac's place on the team) for Mike Hollimon?
• Re: "more on that later" - per Blair (via Pat Gillick - presumably over cocktails, eh Blairsy?), there's nothing "interim" about Beeston's role as prez.....

On the downside, Blair indicates that he thinks the Jays could be the 2nd worst team in the AL, and in his estimation, Snider is probably only good for 15-18 HR this season.

Oh well, it can't be all shits and giggles. Besides, with the team's newly aggressive draft strategy, JP can put that 2010 top-5 pick to good use instead of focusing on my least favourite prospect characteristic - signability.

See how it all ties together?

James Deacon is a bit of a tool

Don't let the nerdy glasses throw you off. James Deacon, who scribbles inanities at AOL Canada (huh?) in between his appearances on Prime Time Sports, is indeed an idiot.

Maybe that's a bit harsh. We're sure that if you wanted someone to discuss his Argos season ticket package or his endless golf holidays, then Deacon is your guy. Sadly, that seems to be the extent of his sporting knowledge.

In his latest perfunctory posting, Deacon makes hi-freakin'-larious predictions for the coming year in sports, including a couple of ill-informed shots at the Blue Jays. To wit:

"August The greatest pitcher ever developed by the Toronto Blue Jays, Roy Halladay, wins his first start as a member of the Los Angeles Dodgers. He was traded by J.P. Ricciardi for a light-hitting shortstop, a left-handed reliever with elbow problems and a 2015 ninth-round draft pick. Halladay said he was nervous and took awhile to get control of the strike zone before settling down and throwing a complete-game, five-hit shutout. “I’m just glad to be on a contending team,” he told reporters."

This echoes an off-handed comment that made Deacon made with an incredible amount of self-assurance on PTS a few nights back. It was spoken with a tone that seemed to indicate that it was all but a done deal that the Jays would ship out Halladay as the first step in rebuilding the allegedly faltering and flailing franchise.

(And it should be noted that the Blue Jays won 86 games last season, two more than the 84 that the "contending" Dodgers needed to win the dreadful NL West.)

Setting aside the blatantly obvious fact that you can't trade draft picks in baseball (a fact that a national sports columnist should probably know if he wants to distinguish himself from ranting sports talk radio callers), the idea that the Jays would embark on such a rebuilding exercise by shipping out their most irreplaceable player defies any sort of logic. Deacon talks of this rebuilding concept as though it is somehow analogous to the way that hockey teams or basketball teams go about restocking themselves.

But shipping off your best pitcher in baseball and receiving anything approaching his value in return just doesn't happen anymore. Most teams would rather hold on to their asset and let him walk, thus assuring themselves of extra draft picks in the next year's draft rather than gambling on another team's prospects.

One need only look at the problems that the San Diego Padres have had in trying to trade Jake Peavy this offseason to see what a fool's errand it is to try to restock your system by trading your ace.

Let's hope that the wise and sage Mr. Deacon defers comment on the Blue Jays from here on out, and sticks to subjects that are closer to his heart. Like how if his beloved Argonauts are better than just two other teams next year, they can make a heroic turnaround and return to the CFL Playoffs!

Fun Facts on Fourth Place Teams!
Did you know that the Blue Jays' 86 wins were the most of any team that finished in fourth place since the introduction of the Wild Card? It's a fact!

Afternoon Delights

Unfortunately, we're not able to listen to the radio broadcast of this afternoon's game, but we have our workstation's RAM revved up to the limit tracking the Jays-Yanks (up 7-6 in the 7th) and the draft.

Milwaukee ruined the Jays fun by picking Canadian Brett Lawrie, presumably because the Canadian-heavy front office in brew city wants to stick it to J.P. and the Jays. (We're actually making that up, but it would be fun if the finagglings amonst MLB GMs were like an episode of The Hills.)

So here's the Jays pick. (Drum roll!)...David Cooper, a lefthanded hitting first basemen from the University of California (via Cal State Fullerton). Steve Lyons, who doesn't know enough about baseball to keep a job as GM but knows just enough to fill the airwaves on ESPN 2, says that Cooper will hit about 25 homers and hit .300. If he's right, then he should be about on par with Lyle Overbay, meaning that we'll have another decade of JaysTalk callers complaining that the first baseman isn't enough of a power threat. Fun.

Mmm...sandwiches

A tip of the casquette to Adam Godson of Bugs and Cranks (via Deadspin and MLB Trade Rumors) for his outstanding piece on how sandwich picks (the "compensatory" round of draft picks between the first and second rounds) are leading to quieter trade deadlines.

The Jays' 2007 draft offers an excellent example of how a team can hold on to a free agent to be and get a high draft pick, rather than taking a chance on another team's mid-to-low-level prospect.

The Jays had seven picks in the top two rounds plus, with five of those coming as compensation for losing Frank Catalanotto, Ted Lilly and Justin Speier. If even half of those picks turn into legitimate major leaguers, J.P.'s stand pat stance at last year's trade deadline will look absolutely brilliant.

(Well, to us anyways. We're sure that Steve Simmons will continue to have a "J.P. isn't a genius and is therefor a fraud" comment in every Sunday column until the Jays win the World Series again.)

J.P. drafts J.P.

After spitting the bit this afternoon against the Devil Rays (Carl Crawford eats the Jays for breakfast, AGAIN!), the Jays have made their first two picks of the draft.

Kevin Ahrens, a switch-hitting high school 3B/SS went first (16th overall), followed by U of Tennessee catcher J.P. Arencibia. (Not only is he another J.P., but in both cases, it stands for Jon Paul. For real.)

We're no draft expert, so we leave you with those links, and the next three years to decide if these were wise choices.

BTW, MLB.com has been running the ESPN2 coverage of the draft all afternoon, and contrary to what we had expected, it has been interesting and informative. It always helps to have Peter Gammons on the set.

Afternoon Delights

It’s A.J. versus the Rays at 12:37, the Draft at 2:00. How are we supposed to concentrate on work today?

Scratch another pitcher off our list: Jordan De Jong, who was included in our Armchair GM pitching column back in April, looked great in his first inning of work for the Blue Jays, striking out the side in the ?th last night. De Jong’s numbers in the minors have been great so far this year (1.69 ERA, 2 saves, 43 Ks vs. 13 BBs in 37.1 innings between New Hampshire and Syracuse), and seeing him for the first time, we were impressed with the zip and the movement on his pitches.

De Jong’s a bit old (28) to be considered a prospect, but his deliberate progression through the ranks since being drafted as an 18^th rounder in 2002 is instructive when considering the goofiness and hyperbole (both positive and negative) that will be attached over the next few years to the Jays early round picks from today.