Thursday, August 26, 2010

Starting Pitcher Power Rankings, y'all!

It's been almost a month and a half since we last dropped some mad power rankings science on all y'all, and just a few things have happened in the interim. New(ish) faces! Near no-hitters! Awesomeness! Are you ready to read on and get down with this?

Oh, and just to mix stuff up a bit, we're looking at Win Probability Added as a key metric this time around. We don't know what it is or how it is tabulated, but it sounds really good, and we'd like to think that it adds a sprinkle of legitimacy to this made up chart.

Power Rankings! Go!

1. Ricky Romero
Previous Rank: 1. Numbers since the last rankings: 7 starts (team result: 4-3), 50.2 IPs, 36Ks / 13 BBs, 3.02 ERA, o.98 WPA.

Just keeps plugging away. Quietly consistent. Showing more endurance late in the season than he did last year. Has gone seven or more innings in all but one start over this span, and went six versus the Red Sox in that start. Assuming the Ace role, and owning it.

2. Brett Cecil
On the last episode: 3. The rundown: 7 starts (4-3), 46.2IPs, 3.47 ERA, 33/ 17 K/BB, 0.891 WPA

Keeping the ball down (finally!), and getting great results. Walks are still a little too high. A disaster start versus Angels keeps him from the top of the list.

3. Brandon Morrow
Back then: 2. Since then: 7 starts (6-1!), 41.1 IPs, 3.70 ERA, 58/17 K/BB, 0.776 WPA.

Threw possibly the most brilliant game in Jays history. Has had some sketchy outings around it, but looks to be settling into the rotation role. Sick stuff, but never looks to be overexerting.

4. Shaun Marcum
Previously: 6. What he do: 7 starts (team: 4-3), 43.2 IPs, 38 Ks / 6 BBs, 4.33 ERA, 0.319 WPA.

Putative number one starter, and still Mr. Staff Leader Guy. Incredibly articulated facial hair crafting. Long balls are an issue (seven over past seven starts).

5. Kyle Drabek
Back in the day: 4. Last ten slow jams: 63.0 IPs, 7-2 W-L, 51/22 K/BB, 2.57 ERA

Looks like he's gotten better as the season has gone on. 154 innings to date likely means he won't make it to Toronto, except maybe to hang with his future boyz. Hoping he never sets foot in Vegas. (Nashville!!!1)

6. Joel Carreno
Once upon a list: 10. 10 excursions, and then you get: 5-1, 51.2 IPs, 2.79 ERA, 65/8 K/BB

Surprise addition to last list. Climbs the charts based on ridiculous strikeout numbers. We're sure that the pseudo-scout blogs were already all over this guy, but you can add us to the Carreno Caravan.

7. Marc Rzepczynski
In those times: 5 In our times: 6 games, 4 starts, 20 IPs, 13/8 K/BB, 6.30 ERA, -0.221 WPA.

Looks wonky. Is not fooling anyone, and is depending on his defense. (Which isn't a bad thing, necessarily. But we're all about the strikeouts.)

8. Zach Stewart
Used to be: 9. Ten games add up to: 56.0 IPs, 3-1 W-L, 2.89 ERA, 42/22 ERA.

Like Drabek, stats look better as the year has gone on. We're hearing lots of love for him throughout the interwebs.

9. Brad Mills
The last time: 8 The evidence: 3 starts (3-0! Clutch!) 15.1 IPs, 5.28 ERA, 13/9 K/BB, 0.132 WPA

Got the call, and did his time with the team. A good first start versus Baltimore followed by a couple of weaker outings versus actual professional baseball teams.

10. Jesse Litsch
Then: 7. Before the breakdown: 4 starts (1-3), 22 IPs, 4.09 ERA, 9/6 K/BB, 0.062 WPA.

He's gone for now, and maybe for good. Likes to dump sugar-water over diabetics. Will be hard pressed to start next season in the rotation. Might be an option as a swing man. Wouldn't mind seeing him work out of the pen in minors to start the season.

14 comments:

Stedron said...

Wait, is Nashville a possibility? Have there been discussions as to where the AAA club is going to go? As a minor league traveler, and someone not too terribly far from Nashville, you have piqued me.

As an aside, saw our boy Hech in Altoona 2 weeks ago. He made 3 plays that would have all made any Plays of the Week list. Dude has about an 87 foot vertical. (Give or take.)

Tao of Stieb said...

That's a whole other post. Probably for tomorrow.

Is Nashville a possibility? Maybe...

And did you know that there are two direct flights from Nashville to Toronto each day?

Tao of Stieb said...

Oh, and this has got to be the last edition of the Starting Pitcher Power Rankings. Takes entirely too long to write something that is supposed to be a silly bit of fluff that no one appears interested in reading.

Yes, I am a comment whore.

Anonymous said...

Cecil in my opinion is the #4 of the big 4 currently.

Romero > Morrow > Marcum > Cecil > Drabek

Kasi said...

I read them, I just don't post much. I would like to see the Scrabble we had last year. This year's version not too much though. Still think he is a solid 5th starter, but I was hoping for something like a 3/4 starter from him.

mike in boston said...

the top 4 look locked up for '11 and both Drabek and Stewart appear to be ready for a shot and have higher upsides than Mills/RZep/Litsch. As a result, the latter 3 will be looking for BP spots or trades to other teams to continue as starters. All 3 have shown glimpses but their time as starters of the future is over, barring injury to the top 6 or a blockbuster trade.

AA has performed brilliantly in trading major league talent. it remains to be seen how well he can peddle his AAA/AAAA talent to other clubs.

Peter D said...

I read it and enjoyed it, but didn't have much to say about it.

It appears that if you want a lot of comments, you need to dumb it down a bit and be more controversial. Throwing in a few swear words or a crude joke seems to be helpful.

eyebleaf said...

Comments!!!1

Stedron said...

I did not know that about the direct flights, but it seems like you could have thrown an airline plug in that spot and maybe got yourself some ad revenue.

Gil Fisher said...

Drabek seems a little bit of overkill for the #5 starter on any team. It wouldn't really be fair to the opposition, especially when there is a void at first base for next year.

I'm firmly in the camp of Drabek, Carlos Perez and something to San Diego for Adrian Gonzalez. I will not rest until AA makes it so.

Anonymous said...

You want to give up 5 years of Drabek AND the potential of Carlos Perez for 1 year of Adrian Gonzalez in a year where we might not even contend.. Shitty deal for the Jays IMO

JimBobEarl said...

Yes Gil, that is a dumb trade.

For shame.

Gil Fisher said...

Of course not, we'd re-up Agon and have 1B locked down for the next 5-6 years with one of the two best all-around first basemen in the game.

Carlos Perez is 19 years old. We have D'Arnaud (21) and Jiminez (20) and Nessy (17), not to mention JPA. You deal from strength. Selling high on Perez is a good choice.

Agon is going to command similar to what Doc did. If you want to be an instant contender, you make the move. It's a fair deal.

tdotsports1 said...

if you're all about the strikeouts, might want to do a double take on Drabek! Not exactly racking 'em up in AA.