Roster Smash Up Derby! Who Will Survive?

Give the paucity of offense (aside from that which is generated by the One Man Gang) and the number of bullpen oopsies in recent weeks, it seems a little difficult to make the case that there aren't enough spots on the Jays' roster to accommodate all the talent.

And yet...

By the time you start to get some of the walking wounded stumbling back from the 4077th (dated reference?) to the front lines, there are going to be choices that have to be made in terms of who comes back to Toronto, and who is provided with a bus ticket and a Gideon Bible for their breast pocket on their journey back to Sin City. Or worse.

In an effort to figure out who goes where and why and who'll be left blowing bubbles from their nose, we've isolated the fellas into separate and distinct street gangs. (When did this go from demolition derby to M*A*S*H* to The Warriors?) This is focused mostly on the short term, and not necessarily taking into account deadline deals. They are as follows:

The One Man Gang: José Bautista. He has the contract, the performance, and the fan adoration on his side. The things that would have to play out that would lead to his exit are too crazy to even ponder. Hey, was that a frog that just fell from the sky?

The Rock Solid Crew: Barring injury (which is no guarantee this year), these guys are certain to stick around through the end of the season. Led by starters Rickey Romero and Brandon Morrow, swingman Carlos Villaneuva and economical relievers Marc Rzepczynski (in spite of last night), Casey Janssen, Shawn Camp and Jason Frasor. Key position players Adam Lind and Yunel Escobar aren't going anywhere, while Rajai Davis is likely safe (no better CF option, and a two year deal). The Jays hold options on J.P. Arencibia, but he's performed well enough to merit inclusion here, and his backup, José Molina, fits the team's needs for the time being.

There. That's 13 players. Plus...

The Returning Wounded: John McDonald will make a beautiful dollar for this team so long as he wishes, so they'll make room for him as soon as he's ready. Jesse Litsch? Hmmm...Maybe? Dustin McGowan is a 2012 project, and Jesse Carlson will likely never sling another Frisbee for the Jays.

Let's assume that Litsch rejoins the team, and Johnny Mac's a given. That brings us to 15 players (Seven position players, three starters, four relievers plus Villaneuva.) Now let's add...

The Rising Sons: Gordie Dougie's arrival will come within the week, as soon as his hand recovers. At some point, the Jays are going to have to consider the return of Travis Snider. Eric Thames acquitted himself fairly well in his recall, though his return is unlikely until September. He may be joined by Adam Loewen, if only momentarily. Meanwhile, Brett "Squints" Cecil has allegedly regained some of his form, and may be knocking on the door to make his return. He may have to wait in line behind Brad Mills, who has pitched like a man all season long. David Cooper is a better PCL hitter than he is a real hitter. If the need arises for a bench outfielder, DeWayne Wise's name might come up as a quick solution.

So add Gordie Dougie, and hold the rest of these guys for now, and we're up to 16 players. Now's where the math gets tricky.

The Bubble Boys: Jo-Jo Reyes has pitched well in recent starts, but a regression over the next few weeks could see him back in peril. Kyle Drabek has to stop pitching around batters, or he's going to get to smell the dry air of the PCL real soon. The Jays could move Octavio Dotel, Jon Rauch or Frank Francisco at a moment's notice, though all three will likely stick around until close to the trade deadline, supposing they'll still return draft picks. Juan Rivera is Juan Rivera, but (like it or not), he's our Juan Rivera until something really odd happens, if it ever does. Aaron Hill probably doesn't belong here, but we'll put him here just because we have that sort of authority. And Corey Patterson has been a treat as of late, but the Jays really only have him as a placeholder, and should he ever become a pumpkin again, it'll be easy to part ways.

So: Let's add Jo-Jo, subtract Drabek (just for sport, just for now), and add the three former closers and hold Rivera and Hill. And for now, C-Patts can keep stealing bases so that the One Man Gang gets walked. Now we've got our insane eight man bullpen back, plus a four man rotation and three roster spots left.

The Fallen: Edwin Encarnacion is singing for his supper with every at bat. Same with Jayson Nix, who at least has some positional flexibility on his side, but he was the last man in and may end up being the first man out. Mike McCoy should probably just wear his 51's uniform, even when he's in Toronto, because he's never really a part of this team. Luis Perez has been a welcome addition to the bullpen, but he's to easy to return to Triple-A.

So the obvious answer here is to dump McCoy and Perez and hold on EE (which this team will likely do through the end of the year). Nix is the most disposable player should the need arise to add someone to the 40-man (like Wise), but until he's pushed, he'll stick around.

So add Drabek back to the rotation (if you must), and you've got a roster that pretty much looks like it does now: Too heavily built around the bullpen, without a lot of capacity to move players like Cecil and Snider back into the fold, and a bench that is populated by either defensive replacements or pinch hitters, but not a player who does both.

Which is to say: Enjoy the recall of Brett Lawrie, because there's not a lot more of that coming between now and September.

Brand Identity

So, kind of a big week in the sporting landscape of my hometown, Winnipeg. I mean, you all knew I was from the 'Peg, right? Has to be obvious, being the uncultured rube blogging amongst us.

Before you surf over to some other, much shittier (OK probably better) corner of the internet, relax.... this is not a post about my beloved Winnipeg Jets. Not really, anyway.

I've had a few @questions posed my way over on The Twitter (it's fun to refer to it as "The") regarding the impact this will have on my Blue Jays fandom. "Of course it won't affect anything, c'mon man!". Until I started thinking.... will it?

In my defence, I can't even help it. When you're born and raised on the prairies, it's hockeyhockeyhockeybaseballhockey. Despite the ingrained propaganda, I was always - always - the biggest baseball fan of all my childhood friends growing up, save for my brother by another mother (outdated!) who'd waste summer days with me, throwing around a ball, intentionally making ridiculous acrobatic catches with the soundtrack of Tom & Jerry playing on a radio always nearby.

And yeah, the Jets pulling chute and leaving town gave my baseball love the springboard it needed to overtake that whore hockey as my #1 sporting love. So now that they're back (whatever they're eventually called)..... what of it?

I'll tell you what of it.

Nothing changes. How can it?

If anything, I have hockey to thank (or blame, whatever) for my baseball (borderline) obsession. Turning my full attention to this game, this sport, has allowed me to become the nerd fan I am today.

Baseball is perfect in it's imperfections. The ridiculously long schedule? Just long enough. Different rules for different leagues? Provides for endless debate. The brutal composition of the Jays home - the A.L. East? Makes for an even sweeter rise to the top.

Baseball is fantastic. Though I can't promise I won't occasionally be distracted by that other sport, I can promise you this:

I can't kick this addiction. Any doubts I may have allowed to creep into my mind were erased when I slammed my fist in the couch cushion as that douchebag Mark Reynolds went yard for a 4-spot on our ace.

"What's the problem?" says the wife, walking into the room. "Oh", she says as she sees 3-1 become 5-3. She gets it. She knows. I'm just too far gone.

So you're stuck with me.

(until Tao decides otherwise.... which could be, oh, any day now).

High Five! Tiny Morsels for Your Friday

If brevity be the soul of wit, then blog on, bloggerman!

1) Jo-Jo Reyes is your number two starter: Okay, that's a stretch, but amongst the regular starters, his ERA+ ranks only behind Ricky Romero. (And Carlos Villaneuva, whose awesomeness probably deserves its own bullet point.) Our point here is not to hype Jo-Jo into something that he's not (which was our pre-season mistake), but merely to underscore that a guy who was about to be run out of town two weeks ago ("useless", "waste of a roster spot") is now a guy who the team will depend upon to give them quality innings for the next few months. Beacuse...

2) Kyle Drabek is wild man! WILD!: Drabek has walked more batters than he's struck out (45 to 43). Yikes. And if you want to double down on your worries, listen to Keith Law on the June 2nd edition of the Baseball Today podcast, wherein he wonders if this sort of lack of command indicates some form of injury. (Our two cents is that we think Drabek might have been able to get Double-A hitters to swing at hard stuff out of the zone more so than big leaguers. That's what passes for positivism around here.) Also, KLaw quite rightly questions John Farrell's handling of Drabek in that inning by not letting him extricate himself from the mess he'd made, given that it's part of the learning process.

Does Drabek's recent struggles mean he should go back to the minors and put in some time against Triple-A pitchers? It might work out well, considering...

3) Brett Cecil's wife thinks Brett Cecil is ready for promotion: We tend not to monitor the Twitter accounts of Jays' wives and girly-girls, because we're already creepy enough. But we couldn't help but notice the retweets of Jennifer Cecil's timeline from last night, as her fella tossed a complete game, six-hitter as the Las Vegas 51's won 4-1. The one run was on a homer which Mrs. Cecil assures us would have been a double in Toronto, and she noted that he was touching 94 MPH and regularly hitting 91. Take that as you will. Perhaps if Cecil were to be recalled, he could share a cab with...

4) Gordie Dougie!: For all of the pissing and moaning we've done in pushing back on the many fans who were calling for his immediate integration into the MLB roster, we'll confess to being as excited as any of you now that the recall is imminent. The power-speed-contact-discipline numbers that we've seen from Lawrie in the past month are enough to make even us, Your Scolding Auntie, trip over our knickers in anticipation. And won't he look splendid lining up next to...

5) AL All-Star Shortstop Yunel Escobar!: Actually, June-Yell is going to be in tough when it comes to making an appearance in this year's game, given the extraordinary seasons of other AL shortstops. Even with the pretty nice start that Escobar has put up, he's still in a three-way tie for fourth amongst AL SS's in fWAR. (Though Erick Aybar's and Elvis Andrus' 1.7 fWARs are fuelled mostly by stolen bases, and we suppose that you could start to pick apart what value should be placed on SBs if you were so inclined. We'll say that we LIKE the fact that Yunel has only one stolen base this year. So there. SMALL BALL SUCKS!)

All this to say (wtf happened to all the brevity we promised), if you want Yunel to make the All-Star roster ahead of The Shell of Derek Jeter, Alexei Ramirez or Asdrubal Cabrerra, you might have to buckle down and find the time to get your 25 votes in for our boy in the middle infield.

And don't go to sleep on José Bautista either! You remember how that hot girl on American Idol got voted off because no one thought she needed their votes, and then the creepy country kid with the head tilting won? Don't let that happen to the One Man Gang!

Have a great weekend!

10 Reasons Gordie Dougie is More Canadian Than Canada Itself

On the occasion of his glorious summoning to the Blue Jays, we offer a brief rundown of all the many ways that Gordie Dougie is the most Canadian of all Canadians, and thereby the greatest baseball player of all time.

1. Doesn't use pine tar. Applies maple syrup to his bat.

2. He maintains a Tim Horton's double-double level of 0.13 in his blood stream at all times.

3. When he was young, his mother sent a letter to Monsieur Eaton, asking him to send a Blue Jays sweater for young Brett. But Monsieur Eaton sent a jersey with the abominable "NY" of the Yankees instead. Brett was ostracized by his friends, who all wore Blue Jays sweaters with number 9 on the back. They were 9 John Oleruds playing against 9 other John Oleruds. When Brett broke his bat because he was not allowed to play in his Yankees sweater, the "curée" told him to go home and pray to God because of what he had done. And when he went home, young Brett prayed for a thousand moths to come eat his Yankees sweater.

4. When he hits a home run, he calls it "going top shelf".

5. Has tattoos of Tommy Douglas on one arm, Peter Gzowski on the other.

6. Thinks Margaret Atwood gets unfairly overlooked by the Giller Prize, and wonders why there was so little fuss about The Year of the Flood.

7. After every take out slide, pops up and apologizes to the middle infielder.

8. Still refers to the tractor that drags the infield before games as "the Zamboni".

9. Knows all the lyrics to the theme song from "The Littlest Hobo".

10. Rather than consulting with team doctors, he makes appointments to see a specialist in Canada and waits for several months to get in to see them.

(And feel free to add your own in the comments!)

The One Man Gang's Acting Chops

You know, we shouldn't encourage José Bautista to continue promoting the "Joey Bats" nickname, especially when he already has a perfectly awesome nickname: One Man Gang!

Still, we had to admit that we chuckled when he said "whacked". He could definitely play the heavy in a revival of the Littlest Hobo.

Blue Jays Twitter Power Rankings!

It's not that we're bereft of actual baseball stuff to discuss. We've just wanted to do this for months now, and we'd prefer not to discuss Hawk Harrelson or John Danks, or whether if the One Man Gang could stand to chill in the middle of a blow out. (Though others might wish to go there.)

We'll note that unlike some others we know, we do not have a proprietary system which helps to analyze the influence and reach of each of these accounts. We're pretty much shooting from the hip. (Though we'd guess that we're smarter than your algorithm anyhow.)

Let's rank 'em up!

1. J.P. Arencibia (@jparencibia9) - Followers: 24,481 ; Following: 69

The Lowdown: Crown Prince of Blue Jays tweeters. Originator of the #beastmode hashtag. Instigator of Twitter tomfoolery. Not above commenting on the issues of the day (such as they are.) Uses the tool as it was supposed to be used. Seems like a genuinely fun guy. Asks followers for helpful advice on living in Toronto, Canada.

Will he follow you? Are you a hot chick?

Will he RT me? Maybe. Helps if you are a hot chick. Or if it involves children loving baseball.

Worth a follow? Absolutely. Above all others.

2. Brandon Morrow (@2Morrow23) - Followers: 12,681 ; Following: 35

The Lowdown: Literate, and legitimately witty. Creates anagrams just for fun. Doesn't tweet often, but is often re-tweetable. Ongoing dialogue between he and his wife (@lilymorrow21) is amusing, like the best episodes of Mad About You. (Okay, probably better than that. And there is a dog involved.)

Will he follow you? Probably not. Unless you are a teammate, baseball writer or a purveyor of hilarious comedy music video madness.

Will he RT me? Are you his teammate?

Worth a follow? Yes. But expect quality as opposed to quantity.

3. Travis Snider (@Lunchboxhero45) Followers: 20,273 ; Following: 74

The Lowdown: Early season Twitter MVP. Trip to Las Vegas slowed down tweeting output. Still has significant Twitter upside. Fully embraced #MeatsDontClash meme, and made it his own. Seems like a genuinely cool guy.

Will he follow you? Not likely. Sticks to circle of Jays, friends of Jays and other big leaguers.

Will he RT me? Yes, for a good cause.

Worth a follow? Yes, though his absence from the twitosphere may give you some sadness.

4. Ricky Romero (@RickyRo24) - Followers: 25,144 ; Following: 51

The Lowdown: That "Los Fearless" Nike ad he did? That's pretty much what you can expect from RickRo's tweets: Intensely inspirational. Pumps up teammates with #beastmode or #HustleandHeart hashtags.

Will he follow you? Are you the reigning Miss USA?

Will he RT me? Yes. Just ask for an RT for whatever reason, and he's happy to oblige.

Worth a follow? Sure. Just prepare yourself for the sad spectacle of people dumber than you begging for RTs.

5. José Bautista (@JoeyBats19) - Followers: 30,295 ; Following: 48

The Lowdown: Enthusiastic!! Enjoys the use of exclamation!!

Will he follow you? You should know better by now.

Will he RT me? No. And he's a better man for it.

Worth a follow? Who are we kidding. Of course you are following him already.

6. Brett Cecil (@CEC0208) - Followers: 13,298 ; Following: 71

The Lowdown: Happy (though homesick) dad. Enthusiastic Washington Capitals fan. Provides honest self-criticism following games. Occasionally takes on idiot trolls.

Will he follow you? Perhaps if you don't mind letting him beat you at NHL 11.

Will he RT me? Nope. Go beg for RTs from those prats from Glee.

Worth a follow? Sure.

7. Brett Lawrie (@blawrie13) - Followers: 8,392 ; Following: 14

The Lowdown: Dude. Party time. Excellent. Less interesting than his sister's tweets, though fewer emo moments as well.

Will he follow you? We're not sure he knows how.

Will he RT me? What's an RT?

Worth a follow? You can probably wait until he gets his promotion.

8. Jesse Litsch (@JesseLitsch) - Followers: 13,745 ; Following: 81

The Lowdown: Happy to be hear sometimes he uses words funny and run on sentences and stuff alright.

Will he follow you? As likely as anyone to do so. Helps if you're a chick. (Hotness not as much a concern.)

Will he RT me? Are you the MLBPA?

Worth a follow? He's agile like a kitty! How could you not?

------

We suppose we could have added a few other minor leaguers to this list (@jakemarisnick for instance), but we're reasonably certain that you've already stopped reading by now. And if you have stuck it through to the finish: Hey there! Happy Monday, y'all!

What's the timeline?

When you're supposed to be blogging about the Toronto Blue Jays and you have what serious writers (ie: folks who are, uh, good with words, and, uh, get paid to do it) refer to as writers' block, there's always one easy fallback option.

So how fuckin' good is that Jose Bautista? Am I right? Nails or what?

OK, but seriously, this post is about Bautista and his greatness. The premise is this:

How long do we think his current level of greatness will last until he becomes "just another slugger"? 2 more seasons? Maybe 3? And does it then not stand to reason that Alex Anthopoulos would target the next few seasons as the time during which the Jays must finally climb that mountain?

Of course, it's not so easy as snapping your fingers and announcing "We're competing now, boys!", but one would have to assume this timeframe was already within the scope of The Plan (right?). But let's say things were to go south with certain pieces of the future plan (no inferences allowed)..... does the Era of Bautista then dictate a quick and dirty (ie: expensive) plan-B as opposed to waiting for the next internal option?

You know what brings this to mind? The Jose Reyes nonsense brings this to mind. Not that I was buying into any serious interest the Jays might have in the player (miss that), but the concept of this team actually taking a run at big shiny pieces along those lines.

And I can't decide if I love or hate the idea.

Because as fantastic as it would be if AA's Jays suddenly became players for the Reyes and Fielders and (gasp!) Pujols of the baseball world.... I seem to kinda remember the outcome the last time the Jays were amongst the biggest players in the free agent world. It didn't end so well and resulted in a public craving for an internal rebuild and "doing things the right way".

And here we are.

Great players are great players, whether they're homegrown or bought & paid for on the open market. So what am I thinking? I guess I'm thinking a Big Splashy Move is always fun, but this team is more than one piece away from a championship calibre club.... until proven otherwise.

Luckily, we're likely on the verge of finding out whether a few of those pieces are ready to assert themselves as future cornerstones in the days, maybe weeks at most, ahead.

And if they are?

Big Splashy Moves!

The Triumphant Return of the Friday Tweet Bag

You've got questions? We've got the smarmy, self-congratulatory repartee that may or may not answer you, but is certain to amuse and entertain. (Okay, "certain" might be a little strong.)

Let the tweetbaggery...BEGIN!

Our blogging pals @6thSens present the following quandry: Dilemma: Canada Day in Ottawa or a trip to TO to watch the Jays and Halladay's return?

Indeed, Canada Day in the Nation's Capital is a throwdown of a hoedown, filled with face-painting, bands you've never heard of (in both official languages!) and patios filled with tomfoolery and iniquity.

But let's be serious: You've lived in Ottawa, and you've done this Canada Day thing before. If you stay in Ottawa, you'll spend a lot of time watching nimrods piss on monuments and puke in bushes that were well-manicured by federal government agencies. It's the same routine as last year, pretty much.

If you don't have family coming to town who want to experience this bacchanal of polite patriotism (as some of us apparently do), then get down to Toronto and see the Jays-Phillies series. Even if Halladay doesn't pitch, his presence in the building is sure to make everyone weepy.

Speaking of fun times, @GrubersMullet (party in back y'all!) asks: should the Jays try the Frasor as closer experiment one more time?

How frustrating is it to watch your closer hack up a game? So frustrating that some of us got nostalgic for B.J. Ryan the other night. (Not naming names...) Still: We like Franky Frank's ability to miss bats, and while Frasor can fosh his way through some hitters, Francisco's K-rate is still pretty stellar (10.38 per nine innings versus Frasor's 8.85.)

We like Frasor as a back of the bullpen arm (in spite of his infuriatingly deliberate approach to pitching), but we'd prefer to be able to use him as needed in the seventh or eighth or what have you.

More more more! @Linutor (who is too slovenly to replace his default egg profile pic in Twitter) asks: Is this really a team that can contend in 2012, even with the addition of he who shall not be named?

Wait a second...who shan't be named? We realize that we've turned into a scolding aunt recently, and we've cast aspersions on people who pine for many players. (Sorry about that...Scolding comes so easily to us.)

To the core of your question: This team CAN contend in 2012. We hope. But the 2012 team is going to have to look a lot different from the ramshackle collection of dubious, marginal veterans that are lurching around this team right now. IF Gordie Dougie Lawrie and Travis Snider are fairly productive (let's say 1.5-2.0 WARs) in 2012, and IF there is a bit more of a solid back end to the rotation, they could build around what exists and at least push 90 wins.

Yikes. Did we just get carried away with the optimism again?

On a related note, @cgorveatt asks: is Travis a "change of scenery" guy now?

No, not nearly. Though that is our worst fear, we've actually managed to reel it back and remember just how young Snider still is. Even with some of the struggles we've seen this year, we figure that it'll be a few years before he even approaches his peak, and we've got to be a bit more patient with his development.

We've heard that the Jays are fixing his swing, which had become encumbered with hitches and weight shifts designed to help him hit mistake pitches 7000 feet, but left him unbalanced and unable to adjust to good fastballs or breaking pitches. It seems as though he's hitting well enough at Las Vegas, but we're willing to let him figure out how to hit again down there if it takes all year.

Side thought: Seeing Hunter Pence (who we like a lot) this week, we were curious to know what his progression looked like. Pence was a 21 year-old with college ball experience in a big-time program before he even took his first cuts in low-A ball, whereas Snider was called up as a 20 year-old who'd flown through three minor league levels in one season.

At 24, Pence rounded into shape and became a solid (.899 OPS) contributor, and has acquitted himself pretty well (.816 career OPS) over the past few years. We think Snider can be a better hitter than Pence, so let's see where Snider is next year before we cast him off.

From the man with the plan, @dpriest: If you were the GM, what would you do right now? Assume you have 8 million, but all other real world limits apply.

You can't buy your way out of problems. You can keep your $8 million. Having said that, we'd look to start moving non-performers off the 25-man roster (EE, f'r'instance), and start easing in some of the future roster into big league roles. (Which they've already kinda done.) We'd also be looking at guys like the Reds' Chris Heisey, who might not have a big role with their current team, but who could contribute to the Jays.

Okay, we're a touch loquacious, so we're gonna tighten up the answers from here on out. Quickly!

@jdotwdot asks: Is Josh Roenicke still considered a prospect/valuable? 15 BB in 20IP, 6.30 ERA, coming up to 29th birthday.

Nope. Roenicke's an old righty with control problems. He's fallen way back in the Jays' bullpen plans.

@bfg900 asks: Can we get some commentary on the facial hair with legs that goes by the name of Eric Thames?

Seriously, we had to read this question five times before we realized that you weren't asking about Thames' leg hair. As for what we think of him: We think he'll have decent doubles power in the majors, and we wonder why he's DHing and not getting a regular turn in the outfield. Is he that bad? Or does the org really love Corey Patterson that much? As for his facial hair: Pretty fly. Though we saw a hipster on the street with a similar look yesterday, and we thought he looked like a douche. Conflicted!

@Archizuber (Hi Ar-Kee!) requests: Draw up a scenario in which David Wright ends up in Toronto. Thanks. Rosterbation!

We love David Wright, and we think he'd be a stellar addition to the Jays. But even with the Mets' lunacy in recent months, they are not giving him away without getting a king's ransom back. Who would they want? Snider? Stewart? Gose? All of the above? Quite possibly. Would they take a collection of second-level prospects? Aaron Sanchez and Travis d'Arnaud and Deck McGuire and Asjer Wojciechowski? We'd do that...though mostly because those guys are purely theoretical beings to us. Still: David Wright!

Hurry hard! @wayofthejay asks: What lineup do you want to see tonight?

Versus lefty Mark Buehrle, we'd set it up like so: Escobar SS, Nix 3B, JPA DH, One Man Gang RF, Rivera 1B, Rajai CF, Molina C, Hill 2B, Thames LF. Ask us why in the comments!

One more! @TheAck asks: Are we OK? or am I looking at a potential June 1 DFA?

No, we're okay. This blog is firmly committed to a weekend editor, and The Ack is that weekend editor at this time. (Vague vote of confidence!) Now get ready to spin some gold over the weekend!

Speaking of which: Have a great weekend everyone, and thanks again for the questions. The Tweet Bag is now closed.

Things Could Be Worse

It's easy in the middle of the season to get lost in the mire of your team's most recent events.

Talk to most of us (Jays fans, bloggers, tweeters, commenters, what-have-you) in over the Winter months, and we were all pretty sanguine about the prospects for the 2011 team, and the degree to which we would bear with some temporary pain for longer-term gain. It should have been obvious that such a stance would be much harder to maintain once we were looking at Corey Patterson in the two-hole everyday.

Oh sure, back in the months of offseason rosterbation and speculation, no one was picturing such an eventuality. But then again, we weren't figuring on a lot of the downside that has come to fruition in this first third of the year.

Because if you'd told us about the cavalcade of calamities that have befallen this team before the season started, there's no way that we could have pictured much more than a 100-loss season, and maybe worse. It's entirely possible we would have folded the blog and found another hobby...like javelin catching.

Seriously, look at the misery thus far...marvel at it! What would you have expected if we'd told you back then that as the Jays were about to play their 50th game:

That Brett Cecil and Travis Snider were justifiably demoted.

That Adam Lind came back, only to get hurt.

That Jo-Jo Reyes pitched worse than expected? (And really, not much was expected to begin with, aside from a few kind words from yours truly.)

That Aaron Hill has gone from turning into a pumpkin in 2010 to becoming a rotting carcass of dilapitated two-weeks-past-Halloween pumpkin in 2011.

That Mike McCoy will get 45 at bats, will be deservedly demoted several times, and still put up better numbers than Aaron Hill.

That Edwin Encarnacion, Aaron Hill and Rajai Davis combined to have as many home runs as Chris Woodward (or us, or you for that matter!)

That Corey Patterson and his .737 OPS would seem like an offensive asset when compared to Juan Rivera (.662), Rajai Davis (.649), Aaron Hill (.616), Edwin Encarnacion (.586) and Travis Snider (.540).

And then if we were to tell you that the Jays managed to stay within three and a half games of the AL East lead, and sat just a game below .500...Would you be relieved?

Thus far, the season has played out worse than we could ever have expected. Well, with the notable exceptions of the One Man Gang, José Bautista (4.5 fWAR!) and a very respectable rookie campaign from J.P. Arencibia. But still...you see what we're saying. For all that's gone wrong so far, there's an upside to this season, and our heroes aren't even all that far off the mark.

Unless, of course, things get really bad.

This Here's the Tale of Gordie Dougie Baseball Canada Stud

It's funny to think that is this day and age, legends can be built on little more than boxscores, unrestrained optimism, patriotic fervour and an overwhelming disdain for the status quo. But then, the fact that most of us have very little visual evidence to assess the progress of Brett Lawrie probably helps to add inches and feet to his legend.

It's been at once the most tiring and most tiresome meme of this year's Blue Jays season that the remedy for virtually any deficiency at the plate or in the field is the recall of the "hometown boy" (from 4300 KM away). Edwin Encarnacion bobbled a ball in the first game of the season, and people in our section (231, in case you're wondering if this was you) were calling for the immediate release of "E5" and the ascension of Gordie Dougie, the most scrappinest, Canadianest baseballer ever. Juan Rivera's woes? Release him for Gordie Dougie! Travis Snider's swing is effed up? Summon forth Gordie Dougie!

"I bet you he likes Don Cherry! Knows hockey! Orders double-doubles! Hates Quebec! Drinks strong beer! Says sorry a lot! Plays through injuries! Fights to defend the honour of his teammates! Has a pocketful of loonies at ALL TIMES! Plays euchre! And is really really polite!"

We're not entirely sure why it bugs us so much that there is a thick layer of sickly sweet maple syrupy exuberance for Lawrie. It could be that there is a certain provincial attitude around it that we find off-putting. We're reasonably certain, for instance, that were he from Venezuela, there wouldn't be the fans with marginal other interest in Jays prospects calling for his immediate recall every time Edwin Encarnacion tosses a ball up the line. (As evidence, we'd mention the ongoing discussions around Canadian Adam Loewen, or the popularity of the Jays' move to keep Scott Richmond on the 40-man roster.)

(And none of this is to say that there isn't a compelling reason for considering Lawrie's call up and getting excited about it, because he's hitting the snot out of the ball...albeit in the PCL, where the air is waifishly thin and where breaking balls don't break. Still, as he piles up stats, it's only been recently that he's closed the gap between strikeouts and walks, and we suspect that his willingness to get the bat off his shoulder will be greeted with great enthusiasm by opposing pitchers.)

We don't want to come off as anti-Canadian here, because we're just a pleased as punch to live in this country. But as a baseball fan, we're mostly agnostic to a player's provenance, if only because we've seen time and again how Canadian players get built into something their not when they arrive in Toronto, then slip away in the end, unwept. (Sorry, Corey Koskie.)

But here's the point of the post (and didn't it take us long enough to get here?): We're just about at the point where we're ready to concede that it might be time to give Gordie Dougie a shot.

Edwin Encarnacion has (as we've repeated a few times) regressed in almost every facet of his game this season. His defense is worse (which is hard to fathom), his power is non-existent, and in recent weeks, he's stopped even hitting the ball hard for outs. His plate discipline is in the tank, and he's hacking out of his cleats at just about everything with seams thrown near him. The 30 homer player that we imagined in the offseason? That's not who Edwin is anymore.

And while we're loathe to start the clock on him, it just strikes us at this point that Gordie Dougie could provide the Jays with more production and a decent glove at third over the final four months of the season. We'd peg him to post a .320ish OBP, .430ish SLG, about a dozen errors and maybe 10 homers over the remainder of the season.

Given the rather grim alternatives, we're not going to fight the Lawrie love too much longer.

Sometimes, hustle and heart matter

We do this weird thing in the blogosphere.

We greet schmucky slogans like "Hustle & Heart" with derision, probably more than is deserved (even if some gentle mocking is probably in order).

We like to claim that we don't care about clubhouse unity; it matters little to us if the roster is comprised of grade-A pricks, so long as they perform.

Well, you know? Fuck that. Can't we have both?

I'm an admitted softy to these kind of stories, probably moreso since my own baby son went through a life-threatening stretch of illness of his own. So if you're a heartless robot (and not in an awesome Halladay-esque way) who would gladly trade solid citizenry for thirty points of OPS, feel free to spend the next few minutes spending your time elsewhere. It's OK. I won't judge. Hey, some (most?) days I would too. But not today.

Not after watching Thursday's game and reading this story.

It's when reflecting on stories like these that the easy thing to say, the defacto attitude to have, is that baseball doesn't matter. And in the grand scheme of things, it doesn't really. It's not life or death. It's entertainment.

That's what ties all this together. These Blue Jays - Romero and Arencibia in particular - seem to get it. They really do. Maybe we're all just so jaded into believing that pro athletes are naturally arrogant and selfish in nature that when the players we cheer for seem to actually care, we're taken aback.

But tears and emotion don't lie. Romero and JPA could have given the standard quotes - "well, hearing that kind of story puts it all in perspective, y'know, so we just went out there and gave it 110% for the kid." But their actions on the field and reactions beyond it showed so much more otherwise.

I'm sure for many the biggest story was the Jays won the game and split the mini-set with the Rays. And that was all well and good, too. But part of the entertainment factor, for me anyway, is cheering for a group of players you can respect.

No matter the boxscores for the balance of the season, it doesn't look like that's going to be much of a problem at all.

That of Which We Shall Not Speak

We're nothing if not superstitious, and at times, we find that we'll bite our tongue on certain players or subjects so as not to somehow affect their outcomes.

(Okay, that's probably less a matter of "superstition" and more a matter of "outsized sense of one's own cosmological importance"...but why quibble?)

The point here (if there really is one) is that we've probably stopped thinking certain thoughts, or at the very least we've not repeated them when they popped into our head this season.

(This is not so much a matter of self-censorship or playing coy with the readership as much as it is a matter of self-control...like the same instinct that keeps you from steering into oncoming traffic when your brain starts to wonder what that might be like and if it would be a good idea.)

As a result, we'll confess to having dished out our share of happy thoughts and glass-half-fullisms this year, trying to buoy our own spirits as well as yours. But given the better part of a week away from the team, with only some random tweets and a few highlight packages to inform our Blue Jays related thoughts, our mind started to wander. And there were a bunch of uncomfortable thoughts that we started to have about this team. So rather than try to stifle them any more and have them fester, we're going to just let fly with them, then walk away. And hope for the best.

Because deep down, we really worry that...

...Edwin Encarnacion has gotten worse in almost every facet of his game.

...Travis Snider is messed up, and that he might not be salvageable by this organization.

...Jo-Jo Reyes is really not very good, and that as much as we like him and root for him, the Jays don't have the roster space to continue to drag along his extended try out.

...Aaron Hill's best years are already behind him.

...this team isn't just a couple of clever tweaks and moves away from serious contention, and that it is more likely that several more years of good-not-great teams in the middle of the AL East will beget several more years of good-not-great teams in the middle of the AL East.

There. We've spat it all out. Let the cosmos do what they will.

Tomorrow, we'll be all sunshine and happiness again.

A One-Sentence Post on...Productivity

Let this roll around your noggin for a few moments, and consider it for all it's worth, and from every angle: Noted slugger John McDonald (pictured above) now has more home runs this season than Travis Snider, Aaron Hill and Edwin Encarnacion...combined.

Tiny Morsels of Happiness

Watching the Jays play the Sox is an arduous affair, given the four hours out of your day that you need to carve out for such an endeavour, plus the psychic energy that it takes to keep yourself from wanting to punch things hard and repeatedly (like Dustin Pedroia's little prickish rat-face).

And yet, given the general malaise in these parts, last night's walkoff win was a sweet little pastry to cap off what was a ridiculously punishing, up and down and back and forth affair.

(For god's sake: Look at this win probability chart!)

The sweetest part was obviously the would-be game winning homer and the eventual actual game winning sac fly by rookie David Cooper. Cooper hasn't totally looked comfortable, and came into last night's game with a .111/.194/.148 slash line, and his couple of games at first haven't been bad, but he has had some hesitation in making plays.

But that swing! It has a certain relaxed elegance to it, not unlike that of Lyle Overbay's. (And you can decide for yourself whether if that constitutes praise or faint praise.) His inaugural round-tripper against Boston's behemoth reliever Daniel Bard wasn't so much a mighty hack as it was a confident parry of the bat.

Not to devolve into pollyannaish "Book of Awesome"-style aphorism, but sometimes, as a fan who is pushing back on the jadedness and the cynicism, it's nice to see something new happen.

(And we'll complete shroud over the fact that Cooper entered the game as a replacement for an injured Yunel Escobar, and that he may well get a lot more at bats in the coming weeks if the Jays somehow figure that a one-man bench comprised exclusively of José Molina might not be enough to get them through the next week.)

Panic and Reason, and Their Proper Use

Remember how sanguine we (Jays fans, not the imperial blogging "we") all were this Winter and Spring, when we looked forward to a season where the Jays could fall to ten games under .500, but we'd all be okay with that, because we trusted the direction and the measured approach of
the new leadership team.

Well, now. Didn't that get blown all to shit in five weeks.

The past week has been significantly less than stellar. Okay, fine: It's been something of a disaster, which only serves to magnify the questions that leap out over every managerial decision and roster move. Last night's decision to pull Brandon Morrow was certainly open to criticism (we're sure he could have cleared the bases and given up five runs all on his own), and it is just one of a whole series of questions that have arisen from John Farrell's on-field management style.

And yet, we keep coming back to this: Do we really want this team to change its approach because of one bad week (out of 26 weeks in the season)? Do we really need to hit the panic button now? Why?

Two things (which are actually one thing) strike us about the reaction to the current state of affairs for the Jays, and how it relates to our pre-season expectations.

1) We Expect A Patient, Longer View from the General Manager...Except When We Don't, Like Right NOW! NOW! NOW! NOW! NOW! NOW!

In the offseason, we all cheered the moves that sacrificed some of the short-term, on-field strengths (Vernon Wells' 3.8 fWAR, for instance) in favour of a slow build, bringing in higher-ceiling prospects and building through the system. But string together a week and a half of crappy outcomes, and suddenly, it's all GORDIE DOUGIE BASEBALL CANADA STUD NOW OR WE SHOOT THE DOG!!!

Is the Jays' lineup very thin right now? Indeed, it is. But does that mean that the immediate callup of Gordie Dougie or Eric Thames or the return Snider is going to suddenly turn this team around? Is letting Jo-Jo Reyes walk and DFAing Juan Rivera and Edwin Encarnacion really going to make this a stronger lineup? And if your answer is: "Well, it couldn't hurt", you should probably rethink that proposition. Because yes, it could hurt. It could make this team weaker. It could turn this team into a 100 loss proposition if it gets stripped down to José Bautista and Adam Lind and lots of prayers.

(And if you haven't been paying close attention to Gordie Dougie's Strikeout-to-Walk ratio down on the farm, it looks like this: 27 Ks, 8 BBs. Now remove the maple leaf from your lapel for a moment, set aside your arguments about how many t-shirts Gordie Dougie is going to sell, and tell us that you really think that AL pitchers wouldn't have a field day exploiting his profound desire to swing the bat.)

The Jays shouldn't change their approach to player development or roster construction just because they've had some crappy outcomes in your most recent memories. Take a deep breath, step back, and look ahead at the 20 weeks remaining in the season. Even if the whole thing turns into an unmitigated disaster, it doesn't make sense for them to run around frantically switching things up, losing players on waivers and starting arb clocks early.

We're fans, and we're passionate about our team. But we should expect the management team to take a cold, rational approach to constructing the roster.

2) We Expect the On-Field Management to Be Deliberately Boring, and the Manager Should Adhere to the New Orthodoxy at All Times.

So we established that we expect the roster moves to come fast furious to satiate our needs to rid ourselves of players who are less than compelling for a bunch of guys that most of us have barely seen and none of us have ever seen in the big leagues.

But God forbid that John Farrell tries anything with his lineup.

"Corey Patterson is playing the wrong position! He's hitting in the wrong place in the order! Edwin as cleanup? Absurd! Why does Juan Rivera still get a turn? Why are we running? Why is he pulling this guy now, and why is that guy getting the call from the pen, when THE NEW BOOK CLEARLY STATES THAT HE SHOULD BE DOING ALL OF THIS DIFFERENTLY!"

John Farrell's had this team for six weeks. Maybe we don't necessarily agree with each and every move, and just how much he seems intent on doing all the time. (Trust us when we say that defending the incessant running game is a stretch for a guy like us.) But we just came off of several years where our throwback Manager chiselled his lineups and strategy into granite, and only deferred from the initial strategy when absolutely compelled to do so. (Which, we'd note, most of you hated. And before the season, you applauded the notion of a manager who was willing to improvise to get the most out of the lineup he had.)

So here's what we understand from you all: The GM should be running around furiously swapping out pieces randomly to see what fits, and to just DO SOMETHING. But the field manager should set his lineup, sit back and DO AS LITTLE AS POSSIBLE.

We know it's tough to think in these terms now, because losing sucks and because losing ugly (as the Jays undeniably have) sucks even worse. But when you're feeling frantic as the team's faithful, roll back your thought process to where you where when this was all theoretical. And don't confuse the outcome with the decisions. Because we're still playing a much longer game than last night's nine innings.

One last thing...on Morrow
Part of playing the longer game is keeping some of your powder dry for when you really need it. While we'd concur with much of what Dustin Parkes draws out on his Getting Blanked article on the removal of Brandon Morrow from last night's game, we'll offer up this counterpoint: Brandon Morrow is a very important piece to this team's future, and he's also a concern healthwise. If Farrell saw something that made him think even for a moment that there was something physically amiss with Morrow, then he had to be willing to get him out of the game and let him sort it out between starts.

And here's the difference between the call that Farrell had to make, and the one that many of us (yours truly included) were making last night and this morning: Farrell's call has consequence. If he, in the moment, sticks with Morrow and pushes the heretofore fragile pitcher's physical limits and then helps to push him beyond his breaking point, we're bemoaning for the next decade how he ruins arms and how our shot at glory was blown up by careless use of the precious commodity of that transcendent arm.

And as John Lott's National Post game story notes, Farrell claimed that injury wasn't a concern right before dropping in a mention of Morrow's elbow. If he was concerned, we're not going to second guess him.