Showing posts with label Tweet Bag. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Tweet Bag. Show all posts

Friday, May 17, 2013

Tao's Tweet Bag - Pertinent Questions, Flippant Answers

Well, hello chums, and welcome to the inaugural Tweet Bag of the 2013 season. Has it really taken this long into the schedule to churn out one of these posts?

Well, yes...but consider the toxicity of the conversation over the past few weeks, and you'll understand why this semi-regular post was delayed until the team managed to string together a couple of wins. I assume you'll understand. Friendsies?

Okay, on with your questions:

This question has been asked many times in recent weeks, and I tend to slough it off out of hand. I understand that there is the temptation to look at Josh Johnson like a dented can of soup on which we might be able to get a snazzy discount, but is it really worth it? Who likes dented soup?

But since you asked nicely, allow me to expand.

Firstly, it should be said that we don't really know what to make of Josh Johnson's injury because he's fully mired in it at this time. The moment of truth will come when he returns - whenever that happens - when we get to see how he looks when he's back to something resembling passable health.

If Josh Johnson returns and he's good, then you should probably kiss him goodbye. The Jays have a lot of money for the ensuing years already owed, and Johnson will be looking for more years than a reasonable team should give him. Which won't stop some damn fool team from handing him a contract for too much money and too many years.

There is a scenario where Josh Johnson misses a long stretch this season - maybe well past the point where he'd be tradeable -  where the Jays could make him a qualifying offer for one year. And if that were to come to pass and he accepted, then we can recycle this answer a year from now.

Onward!
You know, you could have asked "Who's better?" That might have been nice.

But since you asked: I tend to be focused on strikeout and walk rates when evaluating players lately, and neither JPA nor Colby are especially flattered by those numbers. JPA has struck out in a third (literally, 33.3%) of his at bats, while Colby has whiffed in an astonishing 40.7% of his at bats.

Colby has managed to convert some deep counts into bases on balls, walking in 8.6% of his trips to the plate. At the same time, Arencibia has walked twice. Two times. One time in the second game of the season, and then one other time against Baltimore. But in his last 20 games, he has not let a pitcher offer him a free pass.

Maybe he's just in a hurry to get back to the dugout to put his catching gear back on.

Yes, JPA has the second best isolated power on the Jays at the moment (.257), but Colby isn't far behind (.190), and offers vastly superior defense at a premium position. So I'll say Colby. Dang.

May I have another?

I understand that Kawasaki is an endearing player, and that his various antics and rituals have led to a streak of genuine affection from a certain portion of the fanbase. People dig plucky dudes.

Moreover, there are aspects of Kawasaki's game which were lacking in the Jays' lineup early on. This includes the ability to draw a walk, of which he has 11, or nine more than JPA in less than half the plate appearances. He also has the ability to get his bat on the ball, as evidenced by a stupendous 93.2% contact rate (4th in MLB among players with 80 or more PAs).

The biggest problem, though, is that Kawasaki doesn't hit the ball hard. At all. His .279 slugging percentage lags far behind his .337 OBP, and while he's managed to swipe five bags and only get caught once, there are limits to how productive you can be slapping the ball weakly around the field.

I'm also not a huge proponent of his defensive skills, though he plays short well enough to get by.

My suspicion is that once José Reyes returns, we won't miss Kawasaki's outsized personality that much.

A few quick ones to close us out...
I really like Robinson Cano, but know this: There is no amount of money that the Jays could offer Robinson Cano that the Yankees would not match. The only team that I could envision stealing Cano away is the Dodgers, but even they have their limits.
Maybe one more start. Or two. But probably not. He's walked between the raindrops in his first two starts. Though throwing strikes is always appreciated.

I think Rogers would have to lean on the Argos to find another place to play. It's an open question as to whether if that's something they really want, or if the 10-12 dates per year are worth enough to Rogers to tolerate the inconvenience. My guess is that the successful Grey Cup might have softened their resolve to get the Argos out, if that was even on their agenda.

And that's about what we can squeeze in for today. Thanks for the questions, and apologies to those whose questions were too smart for me to answer with some diminished capacity today. Cheers, and enjoy your long weekend.
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Friday, January 25, 2013

Friday Tweet Bag - Answering Your Winter Questions, Such As They Are

For those of us north of the border, it is ridiculously cold, and Spring Training seems so very far away. It's almost disheartening, isn't it?

So let us warm the cockles of our shivering hearts with a little baseball chatter. You tweeted me your questions, and I shall answer them to the best of my abilities, acknowledging the fact that I'm just some slob who has little authority to do so. Let's dig into the Tweet Bag.

(Before we start: Sorry for that weirdly over-enthusiastic piece of self-effacement. It's just that some people have spent too much time in academia and dislike when people speak a degree of certitude. But reading all that weaselly passive voice is no one's idea of fun. And that's what this is supposed to be: Fun. That's all.)

Onward! Tweet Bag regular @whatadewitt asks: With Gose looking so good in Sept (I know don't count sept stats) how long of a leash do you give Rasmus this year? 

Before we start down this road, I'm a bit shocked that Anthony Gose played 56 games last season. Was it really that many? Oddly enough, those games split perfectly between 28 played in his initial call to the bigs, and 28 in September.

Let's agree to disagree on just how good Anthony Gose looked in September of last year. He certainly didn't look as bad as he did in July/August (.256 OBP, .244 SLG), but his .740 OPS (.347/.393) could just as likely be a blip or the result of some weaker pitching as it is an indication that he'd turned a corner and steadied himself at the MLB-level.

 My guess is that we will see Gose for a sizable chunk of the season, but that it will have little to do with Rasmus' performance. If an everyday outfielder goes down with an injury, I'd assume that the Jays will look to Gose to fill in. I doubt he'll come up unless he were to get full time at bats.

Nextly, @coolhead2010 asks: How much weight do you see AA put into the personality/outlook of his player acquisitions?Does this bode well for Colby Rasmus?

Wow, you guys really have it in for Colby Rasmus, don't you?

To your first question: I think that the "soft skills" matter somewhat to Alex Anthopoulos, but not to the degree that you hear them discussed after roster moves are made. On-field performance still matters most, but "intangibles" talk is easier to expound upon with the members of the media.

Don't forget that a year ago, Anthopoulos went through a period of criticism for his lack of transparency among members of the baseball press. Talking up the intangibles provides lots of fodder for the public discussion about these moves without AA being forced to open up in any sort of substantive manner about the process behind the transactions.

As for how any of this affects Colby, I don't get the impression that Rasmus is a bad dude at all, though that's a position I take from a perspective that is far detached from the clubhouse, and a point of view that is sympathetic to him in general.

The bottom line is that if Colby hits like he showed he could for a significant chunk of last season, we'll talk a lot less about his demeanour and hair and all these trivialities.

And so on...@KenInToronto asks: How many AB does Cooper get this year? Any chance he forces Lind to the bench?

On the one hand, I think that people should brace themselves for a lot of Adam Lind this year. He might be hidden from tough lefties, and me might only start four days per week, but by the season's end, I'm guessing that he has at least 400 ABs in a Blue Jays uniform.

Think of it this way: Lind is an asset with virtually no value at this point, and the only transactions left for the Jays to make are to eat his salary and release him or eat his salary and trade him for nothing. Same difference, pretty much.

But put yourself into Alex Anthopoulos' shoes for a moment, and imagine that you're walking down the hall to tell your bosses - who just opened up their wallet and provided a sizable increase in your operating budget - that you're about to flush $7 million down the toilet because you just want to get this one player out of town. Do you think that's a wise use of Anthopoulos' professional capital within the organization?

There's probably some sort of argument to be made that David Cooper - the unremarkable mayonnaise sandwich on white bread with the crusts cut off that he is - might be a marginally better option for 2013, especially if he were used as a platoon player in the way I'm supposing that Lind will.

Cooper's 111 OPS+ (in a tiny 145 PA sample) was nominally better than Lind's 96 (or Brett Lawrie's 97, or J.P. Arencibia's 89), but he pulled that off with a 2.8% walk rate (i.e. four bases on balls) and a BABIP of .333. If you're asking me to bet on the sustainability of those numbers versus the possibility of a decent-enough year from Lind, I'd take the latter.

Moving right along, let's finish off with the Speed Round!

@JamieWine asks: With the Jays make over will venom to be directed at Rasmus and/or Lind? Or will it be someone else? Or will it be a love in?

I think the first few questions should give you a sense of that. I'm guessing someone other than those two unexpectedly emerges as a significant goat this year, though I also imagine that Jays fans won't let up on either player until they are moved.

@tJays05 asks: What are the chances of someone other than Mark DeRosa being the 25th man? 

I suppose it is possible. There's a chance that DeRosa arrives in Dunedin and there is a sudden realization - either on his part or the team's - that he's no longer cut out to be a major leaguer. I don't see anyone wresting the job from him in a Spring Training battle.

@walshag asks: Is there really a competition for back up catcher, or is Hank White (Henry Blanco) a lock?

Given the need for a catcher who can reliably handle the knuckleball, I'd assume the backup catcher job is Josh Thole's. Not to mention the fact that Thole has an outside chance to push Arencibia for playing time if he reverts to his 2009-11 form (.350 OBP in 672 PAs.) Blanco strikes me as org depth.

@mattyjames1 asks: Who's gonna hit more dingers next year, Lind or Rasmus? Lawrie or Arencebia? EE or JB? Gibby or Fasano? 

Yeah! Never mind the rate stats, these are the dingers! The long bombs! The jackxxxxxxs! My best guess is that Lind hits more than Rasmus, Lawrie hits more than JPA, and Encarnacion bests Bautista. Though I could go either way on those, which probably makes them decent prop bets.

As for Gibby and Fasano? Pfft. Now you're just being silly.

‏@Roll_Fizzlebeef asks: New Orleans Pelicans new logo/colours out today. Your thoughts? Bets on next baseball team to go through the laundry switcheroo?

 Ah, nice job appealing to my uniform nerdery. I really like the Pelicans name and logo. There's a great little detail at the top middle of the logo with a wrought iron feature, playing off the local architecture. I'd want to see more of the actual uniform kit before I pass judgment, but this is a nice start.

As for which MLB team takes the plunge next, you have to consider who hasn't made a change in recent years, which narrows the pool. My best guess is that given the new ownership, the Los Angeles Dodgers might add a new alternate jersey. Or not. Who knows? Regardless, there will probably be at least five teams making uniform amendments for 2014. 

@JoshKogon asks: If you were managing, how closely do you examine Bonifacio vs Izturis for starting 2B?

Seriously, I've gone back and forth on this question all winter long. I like both players, and have since before they became Jays. At the moment, I'd lean towards Izturis because I think he has better walk and strikeout rates, as well as more experience at the position. But ask me in five minutes, and I could change my mind.

Finally, @EthanDR asks: How much do you miss baseball? Use specific, comparable examples.

I miss baseball like...um...A LOT. Like a...um...Sorry, I'm not good with similes.My mind is like an empty pail when it comes to similes.

But needless to say, I look forward to baseball season. Like Tom Hanks looked forward to having an awkward moment with Helen Hunt at the end of Cast Away. Does that work?
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Saturday, October 13, 2012

The Org Guy's Paternity Replacement Tweet Bag

It's a Tweet Diaper Bag! Get it?
Friends, our blogging pal the Tao is now a proud papa.  Now, those of us who have been through those whirlwind first few weeks of parenthood will likely sympathize with his plight.  I wasn't yet a blogger when either of the Org Kids came along, but if I were, my posts would have been few and far between (Ed: so what's changed?), lost in a fog of sleepless nights and laundry.  In a spirit of solidarity and goodwill while Tao tends to his growing brood, I volunteered to pinch hit for a Tweet Bag, answering your baseball and non-baseball related questions.  Without further ado:

@CFoster92 asks:
Sometimes it's easy to forget how young most major league baseball players are.  I know for a certifiable fact that I was nowhere close to being ready to be a dad until I was over the age of thirty.  Your decline years as a player happen to coincide with what I'd consider to be the best years to start a family.  It's a bit on the nose, I realize, but my "best dad" vote would probably have to be Darren Oliver.  Calm, serene wisdom dispensed in single-inning sized chunks.  If he were my dad, he'd probably just have to snap his fingers and I'd fix him a scotch, and be damn glad for the opportunity.

As for the worst dad, I feel like I'm being a bit unfair to some of the really young guys by throwing them into the mix.  Most of the under-30 set would probably be really cool to have as uncles.  But my "worst dad" crown goes to Mike McCoy, because that guy's on the road more than Willy Loman.  "You were NEVER there for me!"

@adamtherealtor asks:
We had plenty of Tweet Bag questions about potential 2013 acquisitions.  Me, I have an unnatural desire, growing stronger every day, for the Jays to sign Jeff Keppinger to play second base next year, or at least fill out a utility role as Tao discussed a couple weeks ago.  It doesn't pain me to say it now as much as it might have in, say, July, but Adeiny Hechavarria does still seem to have the inside track right now for second base.  The Keppinger and  Hechavarria scenarios are more a reflection of the weak free agent class at the position than anything else, which is why I think if they look outside the organization for second base, they'll go the trade route.

And if you allow yourself to dream big for just a minute, there are some intriguing possibilities out there.  Why, the Philadelphia Phillies traded almost all the rest of their big-money guys as their season circled the drain, so surely they could be coaxed into moving Chase Utley north of the border, right?  Two seasons left on the contract at $15 million per, at which point he'll be entering his age 35 season. I could get behind taking that off Ruben Amaro's hands (although Utley does have a limited no-trade clause and I think is closing in on 10 and 5 rights, thanks to the indispensable Cot's Baseball Contracts).  I'm not saying it would be easy.  But it would be fun if Alex Anthopoulos were to shoot for the stars, and hopefully hit the moon.  They certainly have the prospects in the system to make some big deals, if they decide that's the direction they want to take.

Speaking of which, @sporkless asks:
And this is where things get trickier.  Just because you CAN do something, doesn't mean you SHOULD do it.  I like the idea of trading prospects now to improve for 2013 -- I just don't think the idea of going "all in" for one season should override the need to maintain a system-wide strength for years to come (a point I've made in the past), because there are never any guarantees it will work, and the ensuing years can be pretty painful if it doesn't.  So how many prospects is too many prospects?

Or, as @JackCekovic and @scottrobinson7 ask:
I think one or two of the the "Lansing Three" -- Noah Syndergaard, Aaron Sanchez and Justin Nicolino -- will be in the mix for deals this off-season.  I wouldn't be surprised to see at least one of them traded away, in particular if packaged in return for a starting pitcher that can slot is as a #2 or #3 type.  There's been some indication already that Anthopoulos is willing to part with prospects and understands the perilous attrition rate for even the best prospect talent out there.  And as much as the Lansing Three are excellent prospects, the idea that there are three Roy Halladays lurking within the organization at low-A ball is just as absurd as it sounds.  There's a chance -- a remote one -- that those kids will all turn out as above-average starting pitchers in the major leagues, but the more likely scenario is that one or none of them does.  "They're not all going to play up here."

Now, I did indicate that I was an expert in lawn care, as well as the works of Steve Earle, when soliciting questions for this little segment.  I may have been overstating things with respect to lawn care.  Nevertheless, to answer the question above, and that of @whatadewitt:
The most useful things I've learned about actually getting your grass to look good are:  aerate (both in the spring and the fall); fertilize (both in the spring and fall); seed (both in the spring and fall -- don't bother in the middle of the summer because it's too hot for the seed to properly germinate and take root); and water the hell out of it all summer long.  Get a good fall fertilizer now, and spread it after you've given one good last raking for the fall and aerated it.  It's probably too late now to try to seed anything for fall.  But both in the spring and fall, if you have bare spots or things are just a bit thin, lay down a thin covering of topsoil and peat moss mixture, spread some quality grass seed on it and keep it nice and moist for a good couple weeks.  As long as the temperature is somewhere between about 15 and 25 Celsius, this is a good time to thicken things up.

Onward!  @_LeftField asks:
and @NicholasDeRosa asks:
These questions refer to my encyclopedic knowledge of the Steve Earle catalogue.  To the first, of those three, my pick is Guitar Town.  It's a fine album that holds up incredibly well despite being more than 25 years old, but my pick here is a little sentimental.  This was the first CD I ever purchased, and I did so before I even had a CD player.  I bought a CD player just so I could listen to Guitar Town.  Earle's music has progressed in a dozen different directions since then.  I like the question about Telephone Road because it references probably my favourite album of all his standard "Steve Earle & the Dukes" efforts -- El Corazon.  Telephone Road is a terrific, very underrated song, and it's not even close to the best one on the album.  I could listen to that album every day and not get tired of it.  Fort Worth Blues will haunt your dreams.

Alright, I know I got a lot more questions than these, and I wish I had time to get to more, but this is getting awfully long already and a lot of it isn't even about baseball.  Just trying to ease you into the off-season, I guess.  Enjoy the playoff baseball, everyone, because once it's gone, baby, it's gone.
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Thursday, April 19, 2012

It's Best to Look Away


We're torn between the temptation to walk away from last night's ugly 12-2 loss and call it "just one of those games", or conversely, to pick through the wreckage and make a big deal out of everything. Being the notorious fence-sitting people-pleaser that we are, we'll probably do a bit of both.

Come along as we tread lightly.

OMG! What's Wrong With Morrow?: Slow your roll, there, Hoss. It was one bad outing against a team that's got a pretty decent lineup. And shall we remind you that Morrow had two starts to begin the season that were really quite good? Morrow looked as though he was having trouble getting the ball to do what he wanted, and his delivery was askew. Tack on a strikezone that was erratic at best and it adds up to a lousy outing that isn't necessarily indicative of anything. At least, not yet.

The Dubious Benefits of an Eight-Man Pen: We're still trying to figure out why the Jays need as many pitchers on their active roster as they carry, especially given the fact that such a scenario results in Carlos Villanueva playing the role of Jamie Vermilyea, rotting away for 10 days between appearances. Los Del V looked as though he was only vaguely familiar with the concept of pitching last night, and had no feel for getting his breaking ball over the plate and out of the dirt. But what could you expect?

And now we're seriously supposed to be intrigued by the notion that the Jays are going to bring another arm up any day now to pitch on Saturday? What happens to Jesse Chavez - and make no mistake, it will be Chavez - after he's done the one start? Does he park his butt in the bullpen and stare off into the stars, waiting weeks for his next opportunity to get the ball? Maybe he and Villanueva can play catch and reminisce about the good old days when they were big league ball players.

And in case you're interested, Darren Oliver is currently on five days of rest, Casey Janssen has had four days and Evan Crawford has had three days to ponder his 13-pitch outing.

It's probably true that the Jays don't have a whole slew of hitters who are banging down the door to come and get at bats in the big leagues. What are they going to do with a useful roster spot: Plug Mike McCoy into it? Bring up Travis Snider to let him sit on the bench and clean up around JPA and Lawrie's bachelor pad?

Let's Change the Subject: Last week's Tweet Bag brought us a number of great questions that were good enough to merit a more thoughtful answer, but that we didn't have the time to ponder in the moment. One of those @danemcburnie, who asked: If you had to pick someone to have a repeat of their best year, who would be the best choice: Rasmus, Johnson or Lind?

We were going to toss this off quickly and likely make some allusion to our Colby fixation, but the more that we considered this question, the more that we became entangled in it.

If you choose Johnson to repeat his 5.9 WAR season of 2010 (26 homers, .865 OPS), do you not also have to admit that such a season inevitably ends up with him playing elsewhere? Either by the trade deadline or in free agency? And is that such a bad thing? It could be that he'd become a very tempting asset this season, and might bring back several decent prospects in return if this is his level of competence.

Or would you choose Lind to repeat his Silver Slugger season of 2009 (.932 OPS, 35 homers, 35.7 weighted runs above average)? That sort of production in the middle of the Jays order might be the biggest contributor to the team's offensive success this season. Wouldn't this be the best bang for our buck? Aren't those the sort of numbers that you'd expect from your first baseman?

Or would we want to see the all-around performance of Colby Rasmus at his 2010 levels, when he posted a 4.3 WAR (.361 OBP, .498 SLG, 23 homers and 12 steals)? For a player at a premium position who is young and still has some projectibility, this would be a great output for this season, and would augur well for the future, wouldn't it? Also, wouldn't it just be nice to see Colby have that sort of year to hush some of his critics?

We could make the argument for any of the three. We think that the most beneficial to the Jays' chances of winning now would be Lind, while the most beneficial for the long term might be Johnson, and the season we'd most enjoy watching would be a great year for Rasmus.

If we remove our own fandom out of the equation, the answer probably comes down to Johnson versus Lind. We'd lean towards Lind, if only because the notion that Johnson might be racking up some of those numbers in another team's uniform seems a bit less appetizing to us.
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Friday, April 13, 2012

The Inaugural 2012 Tweet Bag - Burning Questions, Smouldering Answers

It seemed to be just about the right time to open up the Tweet Bag. It's already six games into the season, so of course we've got everything figured out, and can make 100% accurate projections from here. Plus, we have a whole new collection of followers on Twitter, so it only seemed right to open up the old sack of tweeted questions and blog back some answers. Here we go.

Let's start with @donmcdougald, who asks: Would the Jays be better if Tony Fernandez was hitting coach? He understood how to keep ab's alive and get the ball in play.

Fernandez is unquestionably one of the great Jays, but you're assuming that his skill can simply be transferred. Legendary hitting coaches like Rudy Jaramillo or Charley Lau were never especially great hitters (or even all that good), while a great player like Ted Williams wasn't much of a manager, posting a .429 winning percentage. The point is that instruction is a skill in and of itself.

The example that you raise of Fernandez and his ability to foul off pitches also doesn't strike us as a transferable skill. It wasn't a strategy that Tony brought into each at bat - "I'm just gonna keep fouling off pitches this entire at bat!" - so much as it was a tactic that was facilitated by great hand-eye coordination - "I've got two strikes, so I'm gonna put my bat on anything close to the zone!"

Don't fret for Tony, though. He's gainfully employed as a special assistant to Texas Rangers GM Jon Daniels.

Next, @BlakeGShaw asks: What are the chances the team gets a new stadium in the next 5 years?? Beeston KIND OF hinted at it in reference to grass turf.

In the next five years? No chance. We think you're really reading into those comments from the State of the Franchise, and Beeston has backed away from them subsequently.

Rogers has plowed a bunch of money into the stadium over the last few years, and you should probably figure that this will be the Jays' home park for the next decade or two at the very least. What might be a big help to the Jays in the interim would be settling on them as the exclusive tenant of the stadium, and making adjustments to the field of play that would include having standard infield cut outs, as is done in Tampa.

Next batter! @Mike_Fahmy asks: Ok do you expect the @BlueJays to trade Snider before the deadline?

We doubt it. There's little urgency to do anything with Snider until after this season. If he gets it together and emerges this year as an Alex Gordon type of eventually-blooming prospect, then the Jays have him under control for four more years.

There could be an argument that he has to make the team out of Spring Training next year, so maybe you trade backwards and take a prospect who is further away if there's already enough big league talent in the system to fill that role. But that's a long way off, and Eric Thames has yet to establish himself as the long-term solution in an outfield corner.

And another one! @karmaloop__rep asks: When the time comes to make a D'Arnaud-JPA decision, should JPAs apparent closeness with Lawrie/Romero/rest of core be a factor?

Not really. Having a catcher who has a good relationship with his pitching staff and teammates is a nice plus, but a pleasant demeanour isn't exactly a difficult skill to master.

We watched d'Arnaud catch a couple of innings at the Jays' minor league facility this spring, and while we're literally talking about minutes of exposure to his game, the first thing that struck us was the way that he took command on the field. He was always communicating with his fielders, his pitcher, and generally looked at ease behind the plate. Which is to say nothing of his bat, which will slide nicely into the middle of a big league order eventually. J.P.'s got a nice upper-cut power swing, but average and on-base look as though they will always be challenges for him. Both players can probably co-exist for a season or two together, though, so there's no big rush to move Arencibia in the near term.

The bottom line is that these guys are all professionals. They can maintain friendships after players leave, and make new friendships when new guys arrive. There's a reason why they call it clubhouse chemistry, which is that it is fluid and always changing. Otherwise, they'd call it clubhouse masonry.

From @BitterRaptorFan: "Could you see a downside if Farrell announced that Jays will "close-by-committee" for the rest of eternity?"

That term really comes off as a pejorative, doesn't it? Who could love a committee? Can a committee inspire confidence? Does a committee start its business with pyrotechnics and heavy metal entrances?

We tend to agree with John Farrell's recently stated philosophy that he wants pitchers in the bullpen to have roles, so that they can mentally prepare themselves for the situations in which they'll be used. It will still be somewhat dynamic, but Casey Janssen and Darren Oliver know they'll come in for an inning in the seventh or eighth, Coco Cordero knows that he'll get the eighth and the occasional ninth inning work, and Santos knows he'll take the ninth or the end of the game. It certainly helps to have bullpen depth if this is the approach you want to take.

Having said that, we hate the save stat, and think that a saves should be merged into the "holds" stat so that managers no longer have the rationale that allows them to hold onto their best bullpen arms in high-leverage situations because they want to make sure that the "closer" gets the "save".

Next up, @RickVaughn_99 asks: Can you see the Blue Jays moving Lind in the offseason move Bautista to 1st and Rasmus to RF if Gose impresses that much?

There are a few questions here that aren't necessarily interdependent, but here's the quick answers:

-Yes, we can see the Jays moving Lind, though we don't think he'll have much of a market.

-Yes, we can see the Jays moving Bautista to first, provided he thinks he belongs there. Which might be a challenge.

-Yes, we can see the Jays moving Rasmus to an outfield corner to accommodate Anthony Gose, provided his bat is productive enough to hold down the spot and Gose shows that he's ready for the big leagues.

But ultimately, you tally up all of those conditional positive responses, and it seems as though the full scenario you've painted is unlikely. It also happens to be one of the more ideal scenarios that we've seen for the 2013 Jays. (Are we talking about 2013 already?)

Talking about the farm, @seanvail asks: What do you expect the Jays to do with their AAA franchise? Seems like Vegas is a pretty poor fit in almost every way.

The problem is that there are only so many franchises that are looking to shift their affiliations each year, and the Jays got stuck with Vegas last time around. As much as the Jays might want to get out, there may be limited options for them when their affiliation agreement expires this offseason. The ideal would be a team in Buffalo, but there's nothing that indicates to us that the Mets and Bisons won't renew that agreement.

A decent fallback scenario might involve New Orleans, which seems to be the second-least desirable Triple-A franchise for MLB teams. At least it's not in the Pacific Coast League. (UPDATE: Yes it is. D'oh. Never mind us. We're just too dumb to live.)

And don't even talk to us about baseball in Ottawa. Don't pick that scab.

***

Let's move into the rapid fire questions, shall we?

@james_in_to: What possible situations do you foresee Encarnacion patrolling left field?

Interleague games versus lefties. Extended injury to Rajai Davis. Extended suckage by Eric Thames.

@dee_tam asks: Why are there day games?

Isn't the greater question, why are there night games? Baseball was meant to be played during the day. Giant light towers are not a naturally occurring phenomenon.

@ScottReaume: Who will be the first AA pitcher called up to start? Not Brett Cecil I think.

Actually, we'd say that from the Double-A team, he's the most likely to get the call first. The Jays won't just let him rot down there. If he can't get his starter's stuff together, he'll be back as a bullpen arm before the next generation of prospects come up. (UPDATE: And then they go and call up Evan Crawford to replace Sergio Santos while he's on papa duty. Wrong again Tao!)

@SloaneScholar1: If Brett Lawrie were a type of cheese, what would he be?

Probably some sort of havarti cheese, with lots of hot chilis and maybe some Red Bull infused into it.

@charuk92: How many marriage proposals from female fans will Lawrie receive this season?

We figure at least three per home game, and figure in one per road start. Maybe 10-15 per game in Seattle. Tally it up, and we'd guess about 4860.

***

That's it for this edition of the Tweet Bag, though there are four more salient questions that we'll answer throughout the next week. And don't be a stranger: Send us your queries and tomfoolery any time. We're happy to oblige with the best answers we can.
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Tuesday, January 3, 2012

New Year, New Tweet Bag

Is it back-to-work already? Oy. Upon returning to the cold climes of our home and native land last week, we were fully prepared to burrow into a hole and let our body sustain itself on its holiday meals for the next two months. Alas, duty calls.

We spent a good amount of time monastically pondering the Blue Jays over the past week or so, but before we share what we think passes for insight, we figured we'd take the pulse of the merry masses and answer some tweeted questions that have built up over the break.

First up, a two-parter from : A. Bailey went for very little. Jays could have offered more. But so could 20 other teams. Why did he fetch so little? Same could be said for Carlos Quentin. Is there something wrong with those 2 players.

The Red Sox got Bailey for Josh Reddick, a young left-handed hitting outfielder who is about on par with Eric Thames offensively and much better defensively. For a one-inning relief pitcher with a history of elbow trouble, that sounds about right to us. Hindsight is 20/20, and we're sure that some would now be willing to offer up Travis Snider in exchange, but we're frankly not sure that the A's would have been willing to do that deal.

We like Bailey, but there is something that has bothered us about the discrepancy between his strikeout-to-walk ratio at home versus on the road. For his career, he has a 5.58 K/BB ratio in Oakland, and a 2.27 K/BB ratio everywhere else, and there's something about that discrepancy that would have scared us away from offering something better than Thames or Snider in return for a guy who might throw 60 high-leverage innings.

As for Quentin, we'll confess to not knowing much about the package that is going to Chicago in return for him, but we'd offer this as an explanation as to why it might seem underwhelming: Jays fans aren't as plugged into the prospect speculation in the Padres system as they are to their own, and it could be that those a halfway decent pieces.

The question unasked but implied here is: "Should the Jays have made a move to acquire these players?" Given the moves to bring in Jason Frasor and the previous move to acquire Sergio Santos (who we like a lot more than Bailey), and given the logjam of bats that need to get playing time at DH and LF, we'd say no.

Next up, two related questions. asks: Which of Drabek, Cecil or McGowan would be best suited as a reliever? Also, asks: Where do you see McGowan next year? Also, if Drabek doesn't have a great spring, we he be at AA or AAA?

Before we answer the questions, indulge us as we point out the depth of the Jays' pitching corps. No, the Jays did not acquire Gio or Yu or whoever else became and overnight must-have. But there's tremendous depth to the Jays' pen, with some decent options at the back of the rotation.

As to which of the three starters would be best suited as a reliever, we'd lean towards McGowan. We still think that Cecil could be a good starter if he comes into the season in shape and with his head screwed on right, and given his success last July (2.19 ERA in 37 innings), there's still reason to be optimistic.

Drabek had too much trouble throwing strikes last season for us to even ponder having him come out of the pen, and his delivery seems to take a lot of effort and is rarely repeated from what we've seen. He could very well come back this season with a clearer mind and a quieter body, but our guess is that he's sent to Las Vegas for a month (while it is still something less than scorching hot) until the Jays need an additional arm.

As for McGowan, his inspirational story overshadowed the fact that he had lots of trouble finding the strike zone in his return, though his pitches still had some heat (93.0 MPH average on his fastball) and nice tailing movement. McGowan still seems like he'll be a bit of a long shot to make the rotation, and the Jays may prefer to just establish him as a reliever and let him spend the year in the pen, crowded though it has become.

You can never have too many pitching questions, so asks: Do you see the jays signing a SP for a one year plus option(Francis, Oswalt etc) till the younglings are ready?

Yes, we can absolutely see the Jays taking a run at a starter who would be a third or fourth in the rotation for a year or so. Roy Oswalt will have a lot of other options, and given what's become of the starting pitching market, we'd assume that a deal with a second year or options won't be out of the question for him. Would that be something that would interest you?

Oswalt's lost something on his fastball (1.2 MPH, on average versus 2010 according to Fangraphs), but wouldn't be the worst option for the back of the Jays' rotation. Jeff Francis, on the other hand, may well be the worst option for anyone's rotation at this point. Francis strikes out fewer than five batters per nine innings (4.48/9, if exactitude is your thing), and lobs in his fastball at 84.7 MPH. You remember the Jays' former lob-ballin' lefty Brad Mills? His fastball averaged 85.6 MPH, and he got his weak stuff crushed all over the yard. Francis is not an option.

More pitching questions? But of course! asks: Joel Carreno - SP? RP? Swing man? I feel like he has the k numbers to be a closer but will he get the opportunity?

Oh, my. How we love Joel Carreno. Could he start? Absolutely. Swing man? Yes, please. Close? Sure! Why not? Ultimately, a good pitcher serves the team best by pitching as many innings as possible for them, so the preferred landing spot for Carreno if he pitches next season the way he's been hurling in our head all offseason is in the rotation.

On the other hand, we fully buy into the Earl Weaver edict that the best training ground for a young pitcher is in the bullpen, and if Carreno were to be used as a swing man or long reliever to start the season, it would give the Jays a better opportunity to assess his ability to get out big league hitters.

Those 15 innings of work for Carreno last season were pretty sterling, but the likelihood that he'll post an ERA in the low-1.00's going forward is more than a bit far fetched. He'll need to face a lot more tough hitters over a lot more innings before we can truly assess what we have in him.

And have we mentioned how much we love the idea of 100-inning relievers lately?

Apparently, the only one who cares about the offense is , who asks: Assuming no more roster moves, is Lind is a lock to start all year? Can he lose his job by not hitting first couple months?

Yes, sort of, but yes. In spite of the fact that every jokester and pundit has already cleared out first base for any number of other options (but mostly, Prince Fielder), it seems to us that the Jays are at least committed to starting the season with Lind as the everyday first baseman.

We're still convinced that Lind's back hurt him for a significant part of last season, and that he never fully recovered from the work that he did in Spring Training to prepare for his new role at first. (Paging Dr. Tao!) Moreover, we think that in a better lineup where he can slide down to the four, five or six hole, Lind may well be headed for a better season in 2012.

It's still hard for us to understand how a player can go from a full season of a .370 OBP to two straight seasons of sub-.300, though we understand why fans have a hard time getting enthused over the idea of Adam Lind in the middle of the lineup. But we're fully willing to give Lind another shot to get back to being what we think he can be. The upside is worth it.

And that's your first tweet bag of 2012! Thanks for the questions, and feel free to give us your rational, constructive feedback in the comments.
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Monday, December 19, 2011

A Few Things About Yu

We were always told that there's a treacherous distance between a cup and a lip, so we've spent much of the past two days bringing down our heart rate and bracing ourselves for bad news on the Yu Darvish front.

In the absence of leaks or information upon which to report, virtually every story over the past week has taken it as a given that the Jays were going to be aggressive in their bid for the Japanese hurler, and likely more so than anyone else. Those comments are mostly just baseball's chattering class spouting off conventional wisdom, but Blue Jays fans (yours truly included) have let the possibilities dance about our heads like so many visions of sugarplums over the past week.

As apprehensive as we have been to give into it completely, Yu-mania has been a welcome respite from the offseason of anger and recriminations over the perceived lack of commitment on the part of Rogers to empty out their bottomless buckets of cash for this guy or that one, and mostly, the fat expensive one. Getting excited about the possibilities with Darvish in the fold is undeniably fun, and incredibly contagious.

Making the speculation all the more compelling is the fact that even a blowout deal for Darvish could be less expensive than Fielder, and a smarter investment for the Blue Jays. It's possible that Darvish might find North American umpires less in awe of his pitches on the edges of the strikezone, or that his fastballs up in the zone get hit harder than he could ever have imagined. But even if that is the case, the posting fee paid by the Jays will be a front-end sunk cost, and the contract won't be so onerous as to impede them from either moving him should the need arise.

You see what we did there? We don't even have Yu Darvish, and already, we're speculating on moving him. That's the insanity of this moment.

Mini-Tweet Bag: Answers to a Few of Your Tweeted Questions
Because it's been awhile, we figured we'd answer a few tweeted questions, especially since there are so many pertinent questions to be answered.

asks: If the Jays land Darvish, do you think they should go all in on Fielder?

No. We don't think the Jays should go all in on Fielder, regardless of what happens with Darvish. Fielder wants too many years, and we don't want to see the Jays as the team paying him $25 million six or seven or eight years down the road. If something under five years for Prince were to pop up, we'd consider thinking about it. But we're beyond exhausted with this discussion.

asks: What's a reasonable amount of years/dollars for this guy?

Assuming "this guy" is Darvish, we'd think five-to-six years at $12-to-14 million per year. Somewhere just under the money that C.J. Wilson received, though we think that Darvish will be the much better purchase.

asks: In 30 days, will Prince still be available?

We'd guess that a deal gets done before then, but not by much. If the Jays get their man in Darvish, we'd guess that the Rangers may take a run at Fielder. But we think that Scott Boras will keep Prince out on the market as long as possible to make him some team's last desperate gasp this winter.

asks: Who hits more home runs next year, Kelly Johnson or Colby Rasmus?

Barring injury, we'd say Rasmus by a fairly comfortable margin. People forget what a coup it was acquiring him, and he'll be a significant contributor to the Jays' success this year.

asks: If the get Darvish are they done improving the team this off season?

No, we think there is still another deal to bring in a bat, either by free agency or by trade. And there will be a few additions to the bullpen which we think will be marginal, but who knows. We've been shocked by Alex Anthopoulos before.

Mood Music for the Yu-letide
Fox Sports' Jon Morosi noted that the announcement of who's bid won should come this evening, perhaps around 9 pm. In the interim, we'll be blasting Europe's The Final Countdown all day to get psyched for the hopefully positive news.

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Thursday, September 22, 2011

The Tao's Tweet Bag - Extra Special Answers to Especially Good Questions

Oh, hi. Remember me? It's your delinquent baseball blogging pal. We've been tied up with solving all the problems in the world over the past week, and a little behind in writing up some whims and notions on the Jays. Luckily, you've done the work of several yeomen in filling up the Tweet Bag this week with great questions to fuel the discussion. Let's get to it.

To start, we should get out of the way one question that was asked by many of you over the past day, including : What do you think of the new Jays logo??

We can't seem to find out Jump to Conclusions mat, as it's buried at the back of our closet with our Doc Martens and our zipper ties. So we can't jump to any conclusions about the validity of this logo, nor does the alleged logo tell us much about the look if the entire uniform ensemble. But if you want me to look at this picture and pass judgment, we'd tell you we like it a lot. It's not exactly the old logo, but it's a nice new iteration thereof. But still, we'll need to wait until we see the team working the new duds on a catwalk before we can adjudicate the execution of the new branding.

Next, (who always contributes questions and who we shamefully overlook) asks: If Lawrie profiles as corner OF long-term, crazy to look into Aramis Ramirez this winter? Likely fewer yrs/$ than Prince/Pujols.

Indeed, Aramis will certainly cost less than either of the major free agents, though he may look for an increase over this year's $16.75 million. Still, over the next three years, we can see Ramirez putting up numbers similar or vaguely equivalent to those of Fielder, while providing more defensive value.

There's still the matter of who moves where and plays what next year if the Jays were to make a move for a third baseman, and there's a larger philosophical question as to whether if you move to get the best players you can find in free agency or trades and figure out their spot on the diamond afterwards. It seems to us that the Jays are set on Lawrie at the hot corner, but a move to the outfield or even to first base in order to accommodate Ramirez isn't the craziest idea we've heard.

Let's keep talking about the corners. Two questions (from opposite perspectives) on a Jays-Reds deal in the offseason.

asks: With Votto's contract rising to $17M in '13 and Y.Alonso waiting in CIN, will AA make a play? Cooper/D'Arneaud/Thames for Votto?

While asks: You think a guy like Yonder Alonso fits the Jays? Seems like a high-ceiling guy without a spot to play...

To the first question, we don't think that package comes anywhere close to getting you Joey Votto. For starters, you've suggested sending back a first baseman and a left fielder to help them deal with the 1B/LF glut that they currently have. That's ain't going to play. To get a player like Votto, it's going to hurt. You know that crazily amazing rotation that the New Hampshire Fisher Cats rode to the Eastern League Championship? Start with those names, adding a couple of them into the mix, and you've got the start of a Votto deal, and none of that even begins to factor in that he'll be looking for a Pujols/Fielder/Howard deal very soon. (Plus, you've also got the start of your future holes in your rotation, but we digress.)

To the second question, yes, we think that Alonso would come with a more reasonable price tag, and could be a decent solution to the Jays' lack of production at first base. Alonso may even profile to be more of a DH in the long term, so he'd fit better with an AL team anyways. We're not sure what they'd have to give up to get him, but we'd be all for a move that brings in a player on upswing of his career. Buy low, sweet GM.

More offseason talk, before we even reach the end of the year! asks: Is a better bullpen AA's main priority this offseason?

We're not going to say that the bullpen won't be part of the process this Winter, because it surely will. Just as last year, the Jays went out and signed three players who had previously served as closers, we can see them again looking at low cost arms on short deals with a team option attached. We're not sure that it will necessarily be the main priority, or the most important aspect of the roster reconstruction, if by that you mean "Are they going to spend a lot of money and make big deals on players who have big names." In part, this is because we think that some of the arms that will pitch from the bullpen next year are already in the system. But with four or five slots to fill, there will certainly be new bodies added. Just don't get your hopes up for a proven closer for hire.

Speaking of which, asks: Jonathon Broxton - Proven Closer for hire! Yay or nay?

Nay! A thousand times, NAY! (We suspect that Drew may have served us up a meatball, not unlike what the rotund Broxton might do to batters on a regular basis.)

Mind you, if you were to ask us if we'd toss a cheap, one-year deal at a 300 lb. pitcher with a history of injuries, but also the occasional dominant season (114 Ks versus 29 BB in 76 innings in 2009), we might take that gamble. If you slot him into an undetermined role in the pen (i.e. not necessarily as the closer), and you don't treat him as a bullpen saviour, you may well convince us. Would Broxton sign for one year under those circumstances? That might be a tough sell.

More bullpen queries! asks: Cecil next year = rzep this year. Converted starter who had lots of chances, turned into expendable bullpen arm?

See? This is what we were saying about bullpen solutions from within. Yes, we understood the old argument that Cecil had too much of an arsenal to be relegated to bullpen or closer duty. (And yes, for a starter, the closer role is a demotion.) But given diminished velocity, diminished effectiveness of Cecil's secondary pitches and a delivery which keeps falling out of sorts, we don't think his spot in the rotation is remotely guaranteed next year. On the other hand, Cecil is tough on lefties (.190 batting average,.283 OBP,.246 slugging against in 145 plate appearances versus left-handed batters this season), which might be an asset out of the pen.

If the Jays don't have better options in their rotation, then we wouldn't be in a rush to move Squints into a bullpen role. But if Cecil isn't looking to be a sub-4.00 ERA starter, then, y'know...why the heck not?

And it all comes full circle. asks Do you see the adding another piece to their starting rotation in the off-season?

While we don't know if the Jays will add someone to help improve the state of the starting rotation, our notion is that a) Only Ricky Romero and maybe Brandon Morrow have guaranteed starting jobs to begin next year and b) you can never have enough good starting pitching. If there is a player out there that can be had without emptying the system or overpaying in the free agent market, then the Jays ought to pursue that. Anyone in mind?

Apparently, maybe. asks: What do you think of The Jays going after CJ Wilson?

We haven't expended a lot of time thinking on Wilson up until recently, in part because we presume that the Yankees are going to pursue him so vigourously that the Jays won't get a shot at him unless they wildly overpay. Which is ridiculous, right?

Maybe we've just been worn down by too many conversations about "proven veterans" and all that nonsense, but the idea of a gaudy four-year deal for Wilson actually is starting to make sense to us. To keep him away from your AL East rivals, and you would have to accept some additional financial risk, but if there is a reason to sign a borderline bad contract, it might be to keep pace in the chase for good starting pitching.

Let's get a move on. Here's the rapid-fire portion of our semi-weekly exchange of ideas.

: You think Lawrie plays so hard that he'll always be an injury risk? We've had exactly this thought on more than one occasion since he was recalled. His injuries this year have been mostly flukey ones. But a player who plays at max effort levels as often as Lawrie does is a candidate for strains or tears.

: Correct response to being told to sit down during 9th inning rally at RC? A) Why don't you STAND UP? or B) Forearm to jugular? Depends on who was behind you (little old lady? mother with children?) and how you approached the situation (were you a jerk about it?) Generally, we'd suggest option A. Be nice.

: Why do pickles taste better then cucumbers and whats this team gotta do to get to the next level of good teams? In both instances, we'd offer the same answer: "Dill and brine."

: What do you think the chances are that Snider gets traded this winter, or will they wait until he re-establishes his value? If they have a notion that he's not going to turn things around ever, then we suppose it's possible that they'll look for a deal. But we think the Jays will give Snider another opportunity to prove himself, because his upside is likely better than anything they could extract in return for him.

Finally, : What are your thoughts on the Zooey Deschanel vehicle New Girl? We thought we were getting to a point where the whole cutesy fey thing that Zooey had going on would wear thin. Turns out, it hasn't yet. We kinda hate the show, but we can't not watch it. She's a peach, and it's fun just to watch her be a goofball.

And that's all you wrote. (Well, not exactly, but it's all we figured you'd read.) We're always happy to hear your thoughts, feelings and aspirations. Share with us in the comments, and please, enjoy the conclusion to the season. It's a long, long winter ahead.


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Friday, September 9, 2011

Epic Tweet Bag! So Many Questions, Not Enough Answers!

We asked for your questions, and you provided them in abundance. (Even with our caveat that we wouldn't answer anything to do with the growing obsessions for Joey Votto, Prince Fielder and Albert Pujols.) So without any further dithering about, it's your Tweet Bag column!

asks: Do you think Lind can be fixed? And if so, how? And what about Aaron Hill being able to hit in the desert?

To the first part, we continue to wonder if there isn't something that's gone from nagging to chronic in Lind's back as the season has progressed. He missed a month, came back and raked for two weeks, then basically fell off a cliff for the remainder of the season. (He also appears to be swinging with his arms as opposed to his whole body, which is why we have our suspicions.) As for why he'd continue to play through it, we figure that he (and the Jays) though that it was a manageable injury...But we're getting way ahead of ourselves. But if it is injury-related, hopefully some rest will help to put him straight.

As for Hill? It's amazing what staring into the abyss will do to a player's motivation. Also, he's playing against lesser teams right now. Let's not assume too much.

Onward ho! asks: Do you think Farrell will replace either the pitching coach or the hitting coach in the off season?

A couple of things: First, we don't think that John Farrell makes that call himself. But second, we think that there will be turnover in the staff over the winter. Nothing overly dramatic, but we think it is entirely within the realm of possibility that one of the Jays' coaches gets snatched away by another team, which will mean that the roles of the remaining members of the staff get tweaked, and maybe Luis Rivera gets to sit in the dugout.

More along these lines from : How much should we read into the Mottola "call up"?

Chad Mottola has (according to the players who've come through Las Vegas) done a stellar job in helping to identify subtle tweaks to their mechanics that have helped them to thrive this year. So maybe he deserved a call-up, just as David Cooper or Adam Loewen did. But should his presence in Toronto mean that he should size up Dwayne Murphy's locker space? Not necessarily.

If there is something to read into this move, we'd point to the depth that the Jays are creating in their coaching ranks. The Jays already have more coaches than they can fit into uniform on any given night, and if they find individuals who are able to help, why not keep them in the system? Why not have the single largest coaching staff in the league? And why not offer a bit of enticement for minor league instructors to stay within the fold?

We're guessing that whether if his future is in Toronto or Las Vegas next year, Mottola is feeling the love. And when you feel the love, your interest in sticking it out rises, and your interest in seeking the next best opportunity might not be as strong.

Next up, fantasy baseball guru asks: WAR is wins above replacement, by definition, wouldn't this indicate the league's most valuable player?

Oh...if only it were that simple. On the one hand, a stat like WAR isn't going to speak to the narrative that some writers like to use in order to fill out their ballots. It might contribute, but it's amazing how the traditional markers (played for a contender, RBIs, stolen bases) still matter for a lot of people in the discussion.

On the other hand, there's a growing issue that we have with that specific metric, specifically around how it integrates defense into the equation. Increasingly, we're becoming uncomfortable with Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) as a precise measurement for a player's defensive output in a given season. Players seem to jump up and down dramatically from year to year, though we understand that more data (several seasons worth, apparently) can help to make this metric more meaningful. Having said that, it seems wrong to give it as much weight as it seems to have in the current configuration of Fangraphs' calculation of WAR, especially when discussing a single season performance.

There's an illusion of precision that WAR presents, because this player is 0.5 wins better than that player, and so on. But as ESPN's Keith Law notes, that's tantamount to a rounding error. We're not suggesting throwing the baby out with the bathwater, and we still feel pretty good about the calculation of offensive WAR, to which we often refer. In the interim, we're working hard on our new metric: The Cut of his Jib Above That Other Dude (COJATOD), which should be ready any year now, and will be absolutely bullet-proof.

Nextly, asks: Does Loewen have a place with Jays in 2012? If so, how do Jays juggle him with Snider & Thames?

As nice as the story is with Loewen reshaping himself and coming back as a position player, we don't think there's going to be room for him on the roster. The Jays not only have Snider and Thames to consider, but also Rajai Davis for their outfield spots next year. Certainly, some of those bodies might move in trades over the offseason, but there's still a few too many players ahead of him to figure on a spot for 2012. Our guess is that the Jays allow Loewen to test the market, and someone sees enough in him to offer him a minor league deal with a better chance of cracking the 25-man roster.

Our next contestant, has this: Two questions from the UK: Opening Day rotation using available pitchers/current roster, second base next season: KJ or AH?

How could we not answer a question from another continent?

There were a few rotation questions that came through this week, which we understand given all the extra arms kicking around the team this week. We could spoil the fun by saying that it's almost impossible to know. But we're not that much of a spoil-sport, so here's what we can figure: Ricky Romero (for sure), Brett Cecil (pretty sure), Brandon Morrow (uneasily unsure), Henderson Alvarez (optimistically unsure), and...well...from here, it's a crapshoot. We'll have a better sense after Sunday's outing from Dustin McGowan, but we'd lean towards him as the leading candidate to at least break camp with the team.

This all supposes no player movement, which is why asks: What are the odds the Jays go after CJ Wilson or Harden in the offseason? Also possible trade targets?

We'd figure Harden would be a better bet than Wilson, if only because we're reasonably certain that the Yankees will just keeping stacking thousands of $100 dollar bills in front of his house until he says yes. We'd probably prefer to give Harden a whirl in the bullpen, but we suspect that he might prefer a rotation spot. If no one else is offering that assurance, the Jays might have a shot. (And that has nothing to do with his being Canadian.)

As for trade targets, it's far too early to even guess. There's a lot of baseball to play yet, and many moves to be made between now and the winter meetings. Ask us in four months.

Also, relatedly, asks: Which current prospect not yet with the team will have the biggest impact in 2012?

Experience seems to indicate that the players who unexpectedly sneak into the mix tend to be pitchers, because you need a lot of them to get through 162 games. The playoff rotation of the New Hampshire Fisher Cats is as good a place as any to start your search, as four very good hurlers have landed there by season's end: Chad Jenkins (23), Deck McGuire (22), Nestor Molina (22) and Drew Hutchison (20) have all advanced through one or more minor league levels, and all have looked good (at least according to the numbers) in doing so. Jenkins would seem to have reached the age where he's ready to ascend, although he misses the fewest bats amongst that group (6.6 strikeouts per nine innings, and a 2.74 K/BB rate).

The other three put up drool-inducing numbers through this season.

-McGuire (at high-A Dunedin and AA New Hampshire): 8.9 Ks/9, 3.14 K/BB
-Molina (Dunedin/NH): 10.2 Ks/9, 9.25 K/BB
-Hutchison (Low A Lansing, Dunedin and NH): 12.6 Ks/9, 10.5 K/BB

Based on his experience at the higher levels, we'd guess that Molina is the most likely of that group to slip through and make an impact next season, though don't completely forget about Hutchison. A debut at 21 isn't beyond the realm of possibility.

Let's wrap this quickly. You've all got things to do this weekend, right?

: In what capacity, if any, do you see Johnny Mac coming back to the jays next season? At most, 25th man to start the season. Regular pinch-runner. Backup SS/2B/3B. Possibly transitioning into a coaching role.

: Do you think MLB should allow trading of draft picks? No, absolutely not. Did you see what the Pirates did down the stretch? Dumb teams would trade their picks to smart teams, who would stockpile them and...wait...this might work out well for the Jays!

: Scott Parker: Great Spur, or Greatest Spur? *Shakes fist* Why you. (This is a soccer thing. Gord is making me cry.)

: OK! I have decided that the Jays need Brett Gardner. Am I nuts? How do we make this happen? You are nuts. Why would the Yankees let a good player like that go? Back to the video games for you, son!

Finally, on a happy note, this from @: If you could drink a beer with 1 current Jay, 1 former Jay, and 1 other mlb player, who would they be? We'd grab José Bautista, Carlos Delgado, and Miguel Cabrera and a case of Presidente, and just listen to them talk about hitting jacks all night long. (Of course, we wouldn't understand enough Spanish to know what they'd be saying, so we might need to rethink this.)

As always, thanks for all of your questions, and we'll do one more of these before the end of the season. Have a great weekend!
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Friday, August 26, 2011

Friday Tweet Bag - Your Tweeted Questions Answered with Aplomb

There's a heaping sackful of tweeted questions sent along by our devoted followers (and some people who just spammed us with tomfoolery), so let's get to answering them straightaway. We wouldn't want to induce boredom and dazed admiration of distant construction equipment in anyone...again.

Leading off, asks: If you had to overpay for one free agent, is it Prince, C.J. Wilson, or Jose Reyes? (Assuming Pujols is not an option.)

The key here is the word "overpay". We'd love to bring Wilson or Prince or Reyes into the fold, but the market for these scarce premium players means that teams will have to blow their minds out with longer terms and more money. Given everything that's going right with the way that the Jays are deliberately building from the foundation of the organization towards long-term and sustained success, we wouldn't want the broken down version of any of those players weighing down the team's flexibility seven or eight years down the road.

Having sucked all the fun out of your question, we'll say that as the days grow colder and the wind begins to offer reminders of the long, cold offseason ahead, we hear it whisper a name..."Prince"...

Onward, before the poetry gets too adolescent in here. The always dependable asks: Worried about Lind for next year. Is he good enough to play daily for a contending team, or maybe a platoon player?

Four weeks ago, we might not even have cast a second thought towards Prince Fielder, because the notion of paying him $20 million (or more) seven or eight years down the road seems like lunacy. But the more that one watches Adam Lind struggle, the more that we realize that the hot month that he had earlier this season is the aberration, and that he's likely not the long-term option at first. In his last 253 games with the Blue Jays over the past two seasons, Lind has an fWAR of -0.1, and an OPS of .728. (For the sake of reference: Lyle Overbay's numbers over the same two seasons are +0.5 and .715.)

It pains us to say this as someone who roots for him to succeed, but Adam Lind is not good enough to play daily for an AL East team with notions of contending. (Though we're reasonably sure that he'd rake for the D-Backs, if they still have a need next season.)

Smores! asks: Would you change up the hitting coach in the offseason, if you were in John Farrell's chair? The pitching coach?

If you were to dig back through our blog, you'd probably find a few "fire the hitting coach!" posts. "The hitters are too timid! They're not patient enough! They're failing at a rate of 70%...toss the bum that makes them strike out!"

These days, we're not even so sure of the extent to which the hitting coach or pitching coach really help. Maybe a lot, or maybe not much at all. But given that admitted lack of insight, we'd feel uncomfortable campaigning to hurl someone out the door. We'd certainly like to see the Jays work the count more often, because we have a notion sometimes that the hitters basically walk to the plate looking for a fastball they can pull. Is that strategy coming from Dwayne Murphy? Or is that the team that's been assembled? And why is it that the Jays' lineup is like a Snackables pack for left-handed junkballers?

Chad Mottola, the hitting coach of the Jays' Triple-A affiliate in Las Vegas, has earned rave reviews from the farmhands for his work on their swing mechanics. (He's apparently transformed Adeiny Hechevarria from Dave Concepcion to Alex Rodriguez overnight.) If there was a perceived need for change, the Jays have a decent candidate in the wings. But will it matter?

He is the eggman! asks: if the jays offer serious money to pujols or fielder do you think they would turn it down bec of T.O. Not being a great market?

Okay, we could start by accosting you for the lack of an avatar on Twitter...because,really? It's that hard to find a photo of yourself, or something funny or clever to represent you?

But on the other hand, we could just as well give you the gears over the substance of your question, because this constant poormouthing of Toronto drives us nuts. The city is essentially the third biggest media market in baseball, has TV ratings that are the envy of most other teams, and a base of corporate support in the community that provides the franchise with strong fundamentals, regardless of the vagaries of attendance or the team's fortunes.

(And, as Maury Brown from The Biz of Baseball reported yesterday, the Jays' attendance is up so far 11.5% over last season, with Yankees and Red Sox series remaining.)

People need to stop thinking that players don't want to play here. It's a false assumption. The truth is that when the Jays have wanted a top free agent and were willing to pay the market price for them (B.J. Ryan, A.J. Burnett, Frank Thomas), they got them. There's nothing wrong with the market, and frankly, there's a lot that's going right.

Briefly, more tweets from the tweeters!

asks: who has cooler sideburns, Cecil or Thames?

Thames, and it's not close. Cecil's facial hair and ridiculous fauxhawks have gotten way out of hand.

asks: WIll Kelly Johnson be wooed to re-sign with Jays by Bautista/Lawrie dance moves?

I'll be square with you, son. Kelly Johnson doesn't strike me as the kind of guy who gets wooed by dance moves. Unless J.P. Arencibia and Colby Rasmus were to engage in some celebratory boot-scoot-boogeying. Kickin' up mud!

asks: I was trying 2 decide which position player 2 buy a jersey 4 last night when Lawrie hit a homer...was that a sign?

The universe speaks to you so clearly, and you need me to translate for you? Of course it was! Also, since we're acting as your go-between, the universe is telling you to get a number 13 jersey with "Gordie Dougie" on the back.

asks: what is a greater need for next years jays: starting pitching or bats?

Pitching. It's always pitching. You can stumble your way into a halfway decent lineup, but the mechanics of the game dictate that you have to have someone go out and throw 100 pitches and keep you in the game night in and night out. Also, pitchers come and go and flame out quickly, so you always need more stockpiled.

asks: Crystall ball time: 5 years from now, who's most likely to still be with the Jays? Snider, Escobar, Lawrie, or Rasmus?

We've said it before. We're not a soothsayer. Or an empath, or a vampire or a faerie or were-panther. (Clearly, we're watching too much True Blood. Groan.) But the answer is Lawrie, because he's the youngest, and likely has the highest ceiling of the four.

asks: How good is Kenen Bailli and why can't I find an answer to that question anywhere?

We honestly had no idea what you meant until we looked it up. We're not about to make a judgment based on four games in the Florida State League, but he's 26 years old, so we're not about to put a ton of stock into his future.

And that's about all the time we have for this week. Hopefully, you're still awake. Our apologies to those whose questions we didn't get around to answering, but please keep sending those cards and letters, and we'll get around to them sooner or later.
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