Weekend in an Nutshell (Eggshell?)

Despite the multiple “Opening Day” options on the menu, the season never really feels like it’s in full swing until that first weekend, when all of the teams are in action. By Easter Monday, every team will have a full series under their belts, including the Jays, who dropped a 4-3 decision to Cleveland on Sunday afternoon. With a couple of extra-inning wins and a regular old loss under their belts, we can start jumping straight to premature and unjustified conclusions about the state of the team. So let’s get to it, shall we?

Kelly Johnson

There was some speculation as spring training drew to a close that second baseman Kelly Johnson might find himself as the leadoff hitter, after seeing some success out of the spot in exhibition games. I dare say that Johnson, at least for this three game series, was the team’s best hitter, and put in a performance nearly ideally suited to the two-hole. It would have been all the more productive had Yunel Escobar displayed even the slightest bit of effectiveness at the plate, but even batting with few on base ahead of him, Johnson put together a string of three strong days with the bat, including his ninth-inning homer on Saturday that briefly pulled the Jays ahead. It’s been said before, but replacing the massive black hole that was Aaron Hill’s second base production with even a reasonable facsimile of what Johnson has produced in the past is sure to make a big difference this season.

The Bullpen

I don’t think anyone would have expected that Ricky Romero would have been outshone on the hill by both Brandon Morrow and Joel Carreno in this series, but that’s what happened. Even with Morrow pitching pretty well and getting a bit unlucky (sound familiar?) and Carreno holding his own in his major league debut as a starter, the team relied heavily on some strong innings from the relief corps, and they largely pulled through. It wasn’t without its hiccups – Sergio Santos, in his first “real” save opportunity on Saturday after Luis Perez cock-blocked his chance on Thursday, got tagged with the dreaded “BS”; Francisco Cordero didn’t look especially sharp finishing things a few innings later. For the most part, though, the bullpen worked pretty well around the baserunners they allowed, and managed to record some big outs at key times, especially in the marathon opener.

It’s important to pull out wins like this in the early season. The offense didn’t do much against the starters, but the bullpen kept things close until the bats could get a crack at the opposing relievers. We might not have seen that in 2011. They might find themselves in the same situation more than a few times this year, and I like their chances of repeating that kind of result.

Coming Up

The hype of the home opener awaits on Monday, and the Red Sox will come to town having dropped three straight at the hands of the Tigers. I think that probably says more about how good the Tigers are likely to be this year than it says about some perceived weakness in Boston, though I do get quite a kick out of Red Sox Nation on the verge of seppuku after this start. There are still some bats in Beantown, and it could still be a long series for the Jays’ pitching staff if they keep hitting like they did against Detroit.

Joel Carreno was shipped back to Vegas after today’s start, which I suppose wasn’t wholly unexpected given the lack of need for a fifth starter again until April 21. Perhaps in anticipation of a tough series against Boston, Carreno was replaced on the roster by Aaron Laffey, headed to the ‘pen as a lefty eighth man. Laffey ain’t no great shakes, but I don’t mind having another stretched-out arm available out of the pen in case the potent Sox lineup sends a starter to the showers early. He’s a “just-in-case” call-up, I reckon. We can probably measure the success of the first home series of the season against the number of innings Laffey gets to pitch, with one being inversely proportional to the other.

Far be it from me to take the Lord’s name in vain on this holiest of weekends, but goddammit is it nice to have baseball back again.

Brett Cecil and Other Season's Eve Busy Business

A few quick thoughts and whims on what has been a busy final day of the rehearsal schedule.

As recently this morning, we settled on the notion that we'd blown up yesterday's bad start by Brett Cecil into something way larger than it actually was. Shows what we know.

Though we spouted off yesterday on Twitter about his impending demotion, a more moderate and rational quadrant of our brain assured us he would start the year in the rotation with the Jays. Those nefarious, prevaricating synapses told us: "Sure, he's messed up and throwing slop, but the Jays' brass will do their best with him in the early weeks, and be quick to pull him if necessary, but he'll stick." Stupid brain.

Cecil's demotion speaks to the importance of a deep pitching staff. Through the winter, he was pegged to settle in as the number three pitcher behind Ricky Romero and Brandon Morrow, but it doesn't take a huge drop off for a mid-rotation starter to turn into a below-replacement arm. Thankfully, the Jays have a system full of emergency options that they'll be able to untilize should the need arise.

A question that popped up on Twitter in the midst of this news -- and much credit is due to John Lott of the National Post and Shi Davidi of Sportsnet for getting the news out quickly -- is whether the Jays should have looked at an "innings-eater" like Gavin Floyd or Joe Blanton to pick up the slack. It wouldn't surprise us if Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos has something brewing in the background, in case something else falls off. But given their limited need for a fifth starter to begin the season, plugging the hole with Joel Carreno and giving a big league roster spot to Kyle Drabek seems like the smartest solution.

And in passing: How many of us would have picked Drabek and Carreno over Cecil and McGowan just two weeks ago?

A larger question going forward will be: What does this mean for Cecil down the line? Given that this is the third season in a row in which he's needed to reset himself and find confidence by pitching in the minors, the dreams of him being a front end start are probably beginning to fade. The argument for keeping him out of the bullpen -- anyone remember the "Cecil for closer" movement from three years ago? -- was that he had too many pitches and too much value as a starter. But with the number of starters who will push their way into the picture this year and next, it wouldn't hurt the Jays to consider limiting Cecil's repertoire and reworking his role into a bullpen lefty. Because Darren Oliver can't pitch forever.

Welcome Back Joel: As for Carreno, we couldn't be happier with the Jays' decision to make him the early season starter. His minor league strikeout and walk rates (9.7 and 2.9 respectively) have intrigued us for a couple of years, and his 15 inning audition last season (14 Ks, four BBs, two earned runs in 15.1 innings) only further whetted our appetite. His fastball (90-92 MPH) has nice life to it, and he keeps the ball down in the zone, just where we like it. We were hopeful that he could make his way back to the Majors sooner rather than later, so his re-promotion was in some ways the bigger story for us.

One Last Piece: It seems that the Jays will have to find something to do with Luis Valbuena by tonight, as he is out of options, but not likely to make the team barring an injury today. Valbuena didn't manage any better than a .544 OPS in the spring, and wouldn't seem to be enough of an asset to garner anything in return.

Our best guess is that he either slips through waivers, or gets picked up by someone needing a biped with a pulse, and we never think of him again.

One Last Promo: It's almost time for it to disappear from the shelves, so if you haven't read our piece on Kyle Drabek in the Sportsnet Magazine season preview, do us a solid and go pick yourself up a copy. There's 15 pages of Blue Jays preview mumbo-jumbo, including stories from Arden Zwelling, Shi Davidi, Mike Wilner, and some up-and-comer named Brunt. It's worthy of your perusal.

30 Jays in 30 Days - Who is Joel Carreno?

Who: Joel Carreno, No. 34. Right-handed pitcher, role to be defined. 6’0”, 190 LBS. 25 years old.

Provenance: San Cristobal, Dominican Republic. Signed as an amateur free agent in 2004 by the Blue Jays.

2011 Stats: 1.15 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 14 strikeouts and four walks in 15.2 innings over 11 games with the Blue Jays. 3.41 ERA at Double-A New Hampshire in 24 games, including 23 starts. 152 strikeouts in 134.2 innings.

Looking Back: Up until last season, Joel Carreno had taken a fairly deliberate route through the Jays’ system, bumping up a level per season over five years. But a bullpen made sparse by trades, injuries and performance issues led to his unexpected summoning to the big club in late August of last season.

Carreno pitched very effectively out of the bullpen, giving up just two earned runs and 11 hits along the way. He has a fairly limited repertoire, working with a 91.5 M.P.H. fastball (41.6% of his pitches) and breaking balls (52.9%) which in some cases are categorized as curveballs, and sometimes sliders. We’d always heard that he threw the latter, so maybe a more extensive look will help to determine exactly what is coming out of his hand.

Like teammate Henderson Alvarez, Carreno has a tightly coiled delivery, with lots of tight movement on his pitches. Though we only got a brief look at him, he never seemed particularly outclassed, though he did get a lot of work in September against some weaker lineups.

Carreno also had some control problems in New Hampshire, walking 4.5 batters per nine. Though he didn’t show that propensity often while with the Jays, there were moments where he was ducking and diving around the zone.

Looking Forward: Almost all of Carreno’s minor league work was as a starter, which makes it somewhat surprising that his name is never mentioned as a potential starter for the coming season. Not knowing what he’s throwing makes it hard to figure out if he has starter stuff, and if he does rely so heavily on just two pitches, it might explain why the team is not eager to work him into that equation.

But given the options that are being floated as potential back-end acquisitions to eat innings in an emergency, we’d much rather give Carreno the fifth spot and open up a slot in the bullpen for someone else. Otherwise, Carreno might also be a very good candidate for the 100-inning reliever role which we dream about incessantly.

2012 Expectations: It would be a bit too much to hope for a full season of an ERA just over 1.00, wouldn't it?

At 25, Carreno is probably beginning to stretch the definition of the term prospect. The Jays have him under control for the foreseeable future, and can probably bump him back and forth between Triple-A and the majors if necessary.

He’ll be on the bubble for most of the year, and might get squeezed out of the initial 25-man roster because of asset management issues. But he likely won’t spend much time in the minors, and we figure him to post decent numbers with the Jays when he gets that opportunity.

New Year, New Tweet Bag

Is it back-to-work already? Oy. Upon returning to the cold climes of our home and native land last week, we were fully prepared to burrow into a hole and let our body sustain itself on its holiday meals for the next two months. Alas, duty calls.

We spent a good amount of time monastically pondering the Blue Jays over the past week or so, but before we share what we think passes for insight, we figured we'd take the pulse of the merry masses and answer some tweeted questions that have built up over the break.

First up, a two-parter from @fivetoolfitness: A. Bailey went for very little. Jays could have offered more. But so could 20 other teams. Why did he fetch so little? Same could be said for Carlos Quentin. Is there something wrong with those 2 players.

The Red Sox got Bailey for Josh Reddick, a young left-handed hitting outfielder who is about on par with Eric Thames offensively and much better defensively. For a one-inning relief pitcher with a history of elbow trouble, that sounds about right to us. Hindsight is 20/20, and we're sure that some would now be willing to offer up Travis Snider in exchange, but we're frankly not sure that the A's would have been willing to do that deal.

We like Bailey, but there is something that has bothered us about the discrepancy between his strikeout-to-walk ratio at home versus on the road. For his career, he has a 5.58 K/BB ratio in Oakland, and a 2.27 K/BB ratio everywhere else, and there's something about that discrepancy that would have scared us away from offering something better than Thames or Snider in return for a guy who might throw 60 high-leverage innings.

As for Quentin, we'll confess to not knowing much about the package that is going to Chicago in return for him, but we'd offer this as an explanation as to why it might seem underwhelming: Jays fans aren't as plugged into the prospect speculation in the Padres system as they are to their own, and it could be that those a halfway decent pieces.

The question unasked but implied here is: "Should the Jays have made a move to acquire these players?" Given the moves to bring in Jason Frasor and the previous move to acquire Sergio Santos (who we like a lot more than Bailey), and given the logjam of bats that need to get playing time at DH and LF, we'd say no.

Next up, two related questions. @GrubersMullet asks: Which of Drabek, Cecil or McGowan would be best suited as a reliever? Also, @jleegoldstein asks: Where do you see McGowan next year? Also, if Drabek doesn't have a great spring, we he be at AA or AAA?

Before we answer the questions, indulge us as we point out the depth of the Jays' pitching corps. No, the Jays did not acquire Gio or Yu or whoever else became and overnight must-have. But there's tremendous depth to the Jays' pen, with some decent options at the back of the rotation.

As to which of the three starters would be best suited as a reliever, we'd lean towards McGowan. We still think that Cecil could be a good starter if he comes into the season in shape and with his head screwed on right, and given his success last July (2.19 ERA in 37 innings), there's still reason to be optimistic.

Drabek had too much trouble throwing strikes last season for us to even ponder having him come out of the pen, and his delivery seems to take a lot of effort and is rarely repeated from what we've seen. He could very well come back this season with a clearer mind and a quieter body, but our guess is that he's sent to Las Vegas for a month (while it is still something less than scorching hot) until the Jays need an additional arm.

As for McGowan, his inspirational story overshadowed the fact that he had lots of trouble finding the strike zone in his return, though his pitches still had some heat (93.0 MPH average on his fastball) and nice tailing movement. McGowan still seems like he'll be a bit of a long shot to make the rotation, and the Jays may prefer to just establish him as a reliever and let him spend the year in the pen, crowded though it has become.

You can never have too many pitching questions, so @kyleruta asks: Do you see the jays signing a SP for a one year plus option(Francis, Oswalt etc) till the younglings are ready?

Yes, we can absolutely see the Jays taking a run at a starter who would be a third or fourth in the rotation for a year or so. Roy Oswalt will have a lot of other options, and given what's become of the starting pitching market, we'd assume that a deal with a second year or options won't be out of the question for him. Would that be something that would interest you?

Oswalt's lost something on his fastball (1.2 MPH, on average versus 2010 according to Fangraphs), but wouldn't be the worst option for the back of the Jays' rotation. Jeff Francis, on the other hand, may well be the worst option for anyone's rotation at this point. Francis strikes out fewer than five batters per nine innings (4.48/9, if exactitude is your thing), and lobs in his fastball at 84.7 MPH. You remember the Jays' former lob-ballin' lefty Brad Mills? His fastball averaged 85.6 MPH, and he got his weak stuff crushed all over the yard. Francis is not an option.

More pitching questions? But of course! @brendon_corbett asks: Joel Carreno - SP? RP? Swing man? I feel like he has the k numbers to be a closer but will he get the opportunity?

Oh, my. How we love Joel Carreno. Could he start? Absolutely. Swing man? Yes, please. Close? Sure! Why not? Ultimately, a good pitcher serves the team best by pitching as many innings as possible for them, so the preferred landing spot for Carreno if he pitches next season the way he's been hurling in our head all offseason is in the rotation.

On the other hand, we fully buy into the Earl Weaver edict that the best training ground for a young pitcher is in the bullpen, and if Carreno were to be used as a swing man or long reliever to start the season, it would give the Jays a better opportunity to assess his ability to get out big league hitters.

Those 15 innings of work for Carreno last season were pretty sterling, but the likelihood that he'll post an ERA in the low-1.00's going forward is more than a bit far fetched. He'll need to face a lot more tough hitters over a lot more innings before we can truly assess what we have in him.

And have we mentioned how much we love the idea of 100-inning relievers lately?

Apparently, the only one who cares about the offense is @sporkless, who asks: Assuming no more roster moves, is Lind is a lock to start all year? Can he lose his job by not hitting first couple months?

Yes, sort of, but yes. In spite of the fact that every jokester and pundit has already cleared out first base for any number of other options (but mostly, Prince Fielder), it seems to us that the Jays are at least committed to starting the season with Lind as the everyday first baseman.

We're still convinced that Lind's back hurt him for a significant part of last season, and that he never fully recovered from the work that he did in Spring Training to prepare for his new role at first. (Paging Dr. Tao!) Moreover, we think that in a better lineup where he can slide down to the four, five or six hole, Lind may well be headed for a better season in 2012.

It's still hard for us to understand how a player can go from a full season of a .370 OBP to two straight seasons of sub-.300, though we understand why fans have a hard time getting enthused over the idea of Adam Lind in the middle of the lineup. But we're fully willing to give Lind another shot to get back to being what we think he can be. The upside is worth it.

And that's your first tweet bag of 2012! Thanks for the questions, and feel free to give us your rational, constructive feedback in the comments.