What's the timeline?

When you're supposed to be blogging about the Toronto Blue Jays and you have what serious writers (ie: folks who are, uh, good with words, and, uh, get paid to do it) refer to as writers' block, there's always one easy fallback option.

So how fuckin' good is that Jose Bautista? Am I right? Nails or what?

OK, but seriously, this post is about Bautista and his greatness. The premise is this:

How long do we think his current level of greatness will last until he becomes "just another slugger"? 2 more seasons? Maybe 3? And does it then not stand to reason that Alex Anthopoulos would target the next few seasons as the time during which the Jays must finally climb that mountain?

Of course, it's not so easy as snapping your fingers and announcing "We're competing now, boys!", but one would have to assume this timeframe was already within the scope of The Plan (right?). But let's say things were to go south with certain pieces of the future plan (no inferences allowed)..... does the Era of Bautista then dictate a quick and dirty (ie: expensive) plan-B as opposed to waiting for the next internal option?

You know what brings this to mind? The Jose Reyes nonsense brings this to mind. Not that I was buying into any serious interest the Jays might have in the player (miss that), but the concept of this team actually taking a run at big shiny pieces along those lines.

And I can't decide if I love or hate the idea.

Because as fantastic as it would be if AA's Jays suddenly became players for the Reyes and Fielders and (gasp!) Pujols of the baseball world.... I seem to kinda remember the outcome the last time the Jays were amongst the biggest players in the free agent world. It didn't end so well and resulted in a public craving for an internal rebuild and "doing things the right way".

And here we are.

Great players are great players, whether they're homegrown or bought & paid for on the open market. So what am I thinking? I guess I'm thinking a Big Splashy Move is always fun, but this team is more than one piece away from a championship calibre club.... until proven otherwise.

Luckily, we're likely on the verge of finding out whether a few of those pieces are ready to assert themselves as future cornerstones in the days, maybe weeks at most, ahead.

And if they are?

Big Splashy Moves!

If Patience is a Virtue....

.... then Alex Anthopoulos is a saint.

Unwilling to recklessly respond to the Big Splashy Moves of the AL East superpowers (barf), the Jays front office seems content (at least outwardly) to continue the slow & steady accumulation of long-term assets whose ceilings - theoretically - rate far beyond "league average".

The Red Sox trade for one of the steadiest & most prolific sluggers in baseball? "We don't need Manny that badly." Oh, you don't? Well, how about if the Sox then go scoop the Angels by signing Carl Crawford? "We won't give in to daydreamin' Dayton Moore's outrageous ask for Greinke."

And the Greinke decision is the right one. He's one of the most coveted arms in the game, but coughing up future top of the rotation arm Drabek along with middle of the order bat Snider, PLUS more highly rated prospects? Lunacy. And I recognize the potential to be tarred & feathered as a prospect-porn hypocrite here...... but there's a difference between this situation and last winter's Halladay affair. Drabek and Snider are ready right now. They aren't seasons away and they've already flashed success in the major leagues at tender ages.

Would I swap out Drabek in a package for Greinke? Yeah, I probably would. But that's no knock against Young Kyle (h/t - Jamie Campbell), it's an acknowledgement that to trade for an ace, you probably have to give up a (potential) future ace. Plus, the Jays system is now suddenly loaded with high-ceiling arms that could potentially be the next Drabek (Aaron Sanchez), or a reasonable facsimile (Stewart).

Snider's the dealbreaker here, for me. There's nobody else in the system, or even on the major-league roster (prove me wrong, Jo-Bau) like him. Sure, he might never progress further and settle into a career as a .260 hitter with 30 HR power and a strikeout rate closer to 200 than 100. But he also just might develop into a high OBP masher consistently knocking 40 laser shots out of the park per year. Those are the kinds of players you build around.

So wait Moore and the Royals out. See if the price comes down. And if the eventual loser of the Cliff Lee sweepstakes gives in? So be it. Let them pay that price. And if they don't? You know Anthopoulos will be on the phone.

(but until then, can you at least throw us a bone with a Manny signing? C'mon....it'll be fun!)

Big Splashy Moves

I usually try to avoid quick-reaction posts when one of the AL East SuperPowers parlays their financial (and organizational) means into transactions designed around crushing the spirit of their "rivals" & those who live and die by them.

But there's just something about the Gonzalez acquisition - and subsequent Blue Jay-Greinke rumblings - that got me to thinkin'.

Should the Jays counter with an organization-changing move of their own? Let's focus on Greinke...

By all accounts, Toronto seems a perfect trade partner for Kansas City. The Royals have an Ace for sale - one who is adverse to the daily grind of the "big" markets - and are looking for a prospect package headlined by front-line pitching in return.

The Jays match up, both in terms of destination and potential return, almost perfectly.

So what's the catch?

Well, from the perspective of this (amateur) "blogger" (I use the quotes because I'm uncomfortable with the label), the rumored ask is exceedingly high. Potential future ace Kyle Drabek, plus stud-in-training Travis Snider, plus prospects? Whoah. Big, big ask.

I realize the personal hypocrisy of it all. For those of you diehards following along on Twitter, I openly admit that dealing a pair of 'potential' all-stars for a bonafide all-star is a no-brainer (financial considerations ignored). But does that really apply to players as close to "making it" as Drabek & Snider? These are players, widely heralded as "can't miss" by scouts who've seen success at the major league level. The probability of success is much increased, I'd think. Do you take that risk if you're Alex Anthopoulos? Should the Red Sox (&Yankees) moves provoke the response?

Short answer - it's complicated.

No doubt, Anthopoulos dictates his franchise building strategy along a timeline. It can't help but be affected by moves of their rivals. Even ignoring such....how often does the opportunity to acquire Grienke come along? Every three seasons? Five? Does such an event, coupled with the rich continuing to get richer, necessitate a response?

Here's what I think. I think that if Anthopulos was intent on acquiring Greinke, the price doesn't change. I think future 1/2 starter Drabek + potential middle of the order bat Snider + prospects (d'Arnaud? Perez? Marisnick? Gose? Hech?) is too steep of a price to pay.

But my opinion doesn't matter. Good thing, because it's largely emotional and uninformed. If the front office determines it needs Greinke, it will have Greinke.

Winter meetings take place December 6th through 9th. Stay tuned, friends....

Remember this team...

... because a week from today (or thereabouts), it might not look the same.

The evolution of the roster has already begun, with the departures of John Buck (he got paiiid), Edwin Encarnacion (released, claimed, non-tendered, in therapy), Freddy Lewis (good luck finding those everyday AB's, Fred), and Brian Tallet (who will be serviceable in 2011 for the Cards). Those certain to find new homes in the days ahead include arb decliners Scott Downs and Kevin Gregg - who apparently didn't appreciate the lack of fan support for his white-knuckle ninths. The nerve of Blue Jay fans!

Who's new? Rajai Davis takes the at-bats Freddy Lewis left behind and Carlos Villanueva will eat up the hipster's innings - both low cost upgrades at their respective positions, but hardly the game-changers we've all been speculating are ahead.

So which is it - the calm before the storm, or a much quieter offseason than previously anticipated?

Anthopoulos has made no secret of the the fact he's more willing than ever to take calculated gambles in assembling a roster poised to contend for seasons to come. That means dealing quality players & top prospects at positions of strength to fill perceived areas of weakness. Hardly proof positive, but the Jays have been "tied" to every high-upside player bandied about the hotstove thus far. So is a big move inevitable?

On the other hand.... is it prudent to shake up a roster of players already seen as "on the rise", especially given a new on-field coaching staff? Would simply adding solid veterans and capable major-leaguers to fill the roster holes during another year of team maturation be a reasonable strategy?

Quite frankly, I waffle back and forth on this. It's a talented team with questions at the core (Hill, Lind, Snider, Arencibia) that need answering. Is now the right time for a Big Splashy Move? I really don't know, but Anthopoulos does. And we're probably pretty close to finding out.

Jason Frasor will be a Blue Jay....
... and I'm OK with that. A complete bullpen overhaul consisting of mostly unproven arms is terrifying. Frasor might not be Duane Ward, but he's no Frank Wills either. And let's not sweat the salary he's sure to land in arbitration, all right? It's a one year commitment that won't break the bank for 7th or 8th inning work. Frasor's decision to accept or decline arb was a win-win. So we win!

.... and AJ Pierzynski will not be
Two words: thank fuck.