Try not to look so sad, chums

It's been quite a ride so far, hasn't it? The hot start through the nine weeks of the season helped to separate the true believers from the doubters, and the hopeless romantics from the incorrigible cynics.

Ah, the salad days: Homers were bountiful, and pitching performances were surprisingly satisfying. Brett Cecil got the call, and quickly emerged as the future (if not present) ace of the staff. Travis Snider was out of the lineup, but we hardly seemed to notice, given the performances of Fred Lewis and José Bautista. We'd even managed to relax about the whole thing with The Manager, even stepping in occasionally to (quietly) defend one of his moves. We looked at the standings daily, and saw the Jays sitting above the Red Sox, and mere percentage points behind the Yankees.

These were good days, and times to savour. We could hardly have been happier. We relaxed, smiled, and put on five more pounds.

But on the tenth week, it suddenly went ugly. There were shit-kickings, painfully close games that got away or never seemed far from our grasp. But all of it added up to a week with only a single narrow escape of a win. (And that win only added to our general anxiety about Kevin Gregg as our closer, leading people to start talking wistfully about the days of the Beej and Billy Koch. Or maybe that was just us...)

We've all been conditioned at this point to keep our eyes open and to anticipate the moment in the season where it all goes wrong for the Jays, and where they slip off the pace and back into the mid-pack (or lower) of the American League for good, so a week like this is certainly going to resonate. And while we're generally committed to be the last dude handcuffed to the ship's rail when it hits the ocean floor, we'll confess that there was much about this past week that causes us concern.

(Like JoBau's inability to hit inside pitches. Or the Jays' inability to get guys on and move them along. Or the spectacular ratfuck that is the fifth spot in the rotation. Or the prospect of meeting up with the Padres and the Cardinals.)

But if we can offer any solace in this, we'd tell it you like Ray Charles' momma told him: There's gonna be hard times. This past week sucked, but you've got to just pick up your replica retro Jays cap, dust it off, slap it back on your mellon and hope for a better week ahead.

This team has surprised us already, so let's try to hang onto those happy thoughts, even as they drift into memory. Because the alternative is a long miserable summer.

Better late than never?

Apologies off the top for the delay in weekend posting, but if you've been following along on twitter, you'll have noted that Friday evening was a real meeting of the minds between our gracious blog host (Tao) and yours truly. You'll also have noted that Friday evening's game (playoffs!) went into extras, which (naturally) resulted in a few extra beverages.....which resulted in a supremely sluggish Saturday morning. If you need me to spell it out for you....I'm not 25 years old anymore, friends.

Short of plotting world baseball blogging dominance, good times were had. I'd delve into the detail, but I'm pretty sure that the non-disclosure agreement I was forced to sign prevents me from discussing. Hey, I just work here.

(That, and you'd be bored to tears. "Hey man, I DO NOT appreciate Jose Bautista."...."Oh, fuck off. He's SOLID, dude." Well, not exactly. But I digress....)

So here we are. But where exactly are we? Following the travails of a team that some would say is overachieving - 4 games over .500 a full fifth of the way through the schedule. This seems to be the path of the team - getting off to promising starts before falling off and into the wilderness with the Orioles as the season progresses. But something is different about this club.

We're not all waiting for the other shoe to drop, for one. Lowered expectations for the win! But it's more than that. In seasons past, when our (my?) primary bitch was the lack of organizational direction and low-ceiling makeup of the roster, the frustration borne from the mounting losses was invariably compounded by a growing sense of hopelessness.

But look at where the club is now, right now - objectively and without wearing the fanboy hat - and try to convince me the same applies. You can't, and you won't. For starters (literally), the Jays are deep in the asset every organization covets most - young pitching. And people are starting to notice - as well they should.

"I see Romero as the guy who's going to emerge as their go-to guy to shut down a series," he said. "To me, there's almost a scary resemblance between him and vintage Johan [Santana]. His change has really developed. But he's got three other pitches to go to. With more experience, and a team that can catch the ball, he's got a chance to be an 18-20-game winner.

"Marcum's got the makeup of a front-end rotation guy. His stuff is a little below that. But he battles so well, I wouldn't bet against him. I've always liked Cecil. And Morrow doesn't have the feel of those other guys. But he's got quality stuff. It's a pretty impressive young group."

Somebody help me - what's that word we once used to describe quotes like these? Added bonus, the above doesn't even take into consideration potential frontline arms coming up through the system like Drabek, Stewart, and Jenkins. And let's not sleep on RZep, who's now throwing again.

It's all good news on the pitching front, but you can't win every game 1-0. It would be foolish to pretend that there aren't holes in the starting 9. One needs only witness a classic Manager giveaway game lineup to realize the threadbare depth at the major league level. That's not to say there aren't pieces, for now and three years from now.

Adam Lind will find his stroke and remind us all that he's a very bad man. Aaron Hill will emerge from the fog and be, at the least, an above average second basemen in all facets. Travis Snider is starting to rake, right on cue (though I'd love to see him mash a good country fastball). Vernon Wells isn't done and Freddy Lewis has been a great addition to the team.

More importantly, help is on the way. Brett Wallace and his 1.0+ Vegas-aided OPS. One of the 17 catching prospects (deep!) will pan out and be The Man behind the plate. Perhaps one of Eric Thames or Brad Emaus will fly in from under the radar and be the surprise story that every team needs. And let's not forget about Adeiny.

All in all, I'd say it's a fun time to be a Blue Jays fan. Wouldn't you agree?

Handsome Tony?
Say it aint so, HTV. Does that mean you'll be leaving us too?

Keep hope alive

When it comes to the 2009 season for our beloved Blue Jays, there's a lot of people saying we'd be better off dead.

(Like our weekend contributor, for instance.)

Certainly, looking at the state of the Jays' roster on paper and contrasting it with that of our AL East competitors, there's plenty of reason for pessimism. The Yankees are adding big names, the Red Sox will be moving soon to supplement an already strong roster, the Rays are in play for a big bat (like Jason Giambi) and the Orioles are running down anyone who is willing to take their money.

The games, of course, aren't played on paper, and there are reasons for optimism with the Jays next season.

Think of some of the 2008 contributions made by Jesse Carlson, who nobody knew in December 2007, but who went on to lead the team in appearances, posting a 2.25 ERA. Carlson had pitched well at Double-A New Hampshire in 2007, but he was scarcely mentioned as a prospect anywhere in the lead up to last season.

So, to warm your innards like a piping hot cup of mulled cider, we offer a few reasons for optimism this winter. Keep these in mind as you are opening up your Christmas presents next week only to find a "Burnett 34" jersey lovingly gifted by a family member who knows that you love the Jays, but who isn't necessarily following along as we do.

Hopeful Thought # 1 - Travis Snider
The Great Big Giant Pasty White Hope^TM is a star in the making, and a legitimate Rookie of the Year candidate for 2009. While we've been salivating over LF/DH types in the free agent market, we're of the mind that the Blue Jays could generate as much offense from Snider at the major league minimum salary as they could have from Raul Ibanez at $10 million per year. We see Snider eventually as a Lance Berkman type, who could hit 30 to 35 homers with an OPS over .900. For next year, 20 homers and 80 RsBI seems like a reasonable expectation. Even with that modest expectation, he would represent an upgrade over the 2008 team's production.

Hopeful Thought # 2 - The rest of the farm
As much as the baseball hobbyists in the Toronto/Canadian sports media will continue to focus on J.P. Riccardi's draft gaffes, the minor league system is in its best shape since the salad years of the team. In addition to Snider, J.P. Arencibia, Brett Cecil and David Cooper all look to be legitimate high-end prospects.

Dig a little deeper, you may find next year's Jesse Carlson in the person of Robert Ray, a soon-to-be 25 year-old starter who put up some impressive numbers in his first crack at Double-A. A glance at his numbers suggests that he may be a step ahead of Ricky Romero at this point, and he could potentially find himself with the big club by season's end.

Moreover, there's Scott Campbell, who has put up better offensive numbers in his minor league career than Aaron Hill did. There are also (finally) a number of higer-ceiling Latin American players (Balbino Fuenmayor, Yohermyn Chavez, Moises Sierra) who are on the way, and who could make big strides in the coming year.

They might not all contribute to the 2009 team, but the wealth of prospects could provide the Jays with more trading chips if they need to make a short term move to shore up their pitching.

Hopeful Thought # 3 - The ailing return
In the short term, Aaron Hill, Casey Janssen and Jeremy Accardo should all return for the beginning of the year after missing most or all of last season. Dustin McGowan could be back as early as May. Obviously, it's difficult to bank on players returning to their former glories immediately after an extended period on the DL. But these players seem to have been forgotten in all of the tales of woe that are being spun over next year's team.

Hopeful Thought # 4 - The ailing return to form
Is it too much to hope for better seasons from Lyle Overbay and Scott Rolen?

Hopeful Thought # 5 - The other guys have their problems, too
It's not to say that the Rays' season was a fluke, but it seems unlikely that they will walk between the raindrops in the same way they did this year. Carl Crawford seems like an extended DL stint waiting to happen, as does the Red Sox' David Ortiz.

There's no telling what the jumble of new bodies (and their associated personalities) in the Bronx will produce, and Orioles have more holes to fill in their rotation and bullpen then money can paper over.

Moreover, with the exception of Boston and the Yankees, the rest of the AL will also feel the squeeze of the economic slowdown, which means that the Jays won't be the only team counting the coins in their change purse throughout the winter.

A one-sentence post on...faint hope

If you hold onto hope way beyond the point where you can rationally believe that you have a chance at happiness in the end, then every setback will hurt that much more, and logic will break your heart forever.

Finding hope in the depth

So it's February, and hope springs eternal and all that sort of thing.

For the past three or four years, there's been this sense with the Blue Jays that they're almost there. Since the 86-win season in 2003, we've felt like we're on the cusp of something good, and it is all about to go our way. If only this goes right for us, and that goes wrong for them, then in the end we'll be right there, playing meaningful September games.

We've also been teased like a drunken frat boy at Lake Havasu by all of the national (American) pundits picking the Jays as the team that "just might surprise this year" for pretty much the last three years. The disappointments of those years have caused the delicate flesh of our hopes and dreams to callous over.

It's with this in mind that we allow ourselves to get marginally excited about the prospects of the 2008 squad, especially where it comes to the team's depth. At virtually every position, the Jays have Major League calibre players who can step in if the putative starter goes down in a flaming heap this year.

If Zaunie chokes on a forkfull of pancake and sausage, there's Barajas. If Overbay pops his shoulder out catching a bouquet, we've got Stairs. If Rolen's inner-ear revolts on him due to extended periods of time listening to his Limp Bizkit intro music, Scutaro or Johnny Mac can step in. There will be no extended periods where a Jason Phillips-type or a Howie Clark-type will be a starter on this year's roster. We have to think that will be a good thing. Because there's only so many automatic outs you can bear in a lineup.

What's more, we're not looking at a competition between old scrubs (Thomson-Ohka-Zambrano) for the fifth starter position. The Jays have legitimate arms both in the rotation and the bullpen, to the point where some of the pitchers who contributed significantly to keeping the team from imploding into a dusty pile may find themselves in Syracuse or elsewhere, simply because there aren't enough spots.

A talented core is one thing, and we think that the Jays have that (although not at the same level as the Tigers or Red Sox.) But our hopes for 2008 rest almost entirely on the depth of the team assembled.

Hope is a dangerous thing. Hope can drive a man insane.