Now There's a Tragic Waste of Brutal Youth - A Reaction to the Snider Saga

Photo courtesy @james_in_to.

It's rare that we get a thoughtfully candid retelling of how a player's relationship to a franchise soured, and rarer still that we get one so soon after the player left. Which is why many of us have spent recent days pouring over minute details in Shi Davidi's three-part story on Travis Snider's departure, and the events that led to it.

I can understand why many fans want to move on, and don't care to rehash the Travis Snider saga any further. For some, Snider's performance here in Toronto doesn't nearly warrant all of the angst that has been displayed by his fans. For others, retracing the steps that led to his exit seems to be more misery than a stressed-out, heartbroken Jays fan can take at this point.

And yet, the curiosity around what really happened to the Jays' former number one prospect is almost impossible to resist. For those of us who have spent the last five years agonizing over Snider,  his progress - or lack thereof - has been a source of frustration and bewilderment. Getting a bit more "dirt" on what many of us have suspected was a strained relationship at the best of times is irresistible.

But we shouldn't mistake the story as just a salacious rehash. What happened with Travis Snider matters going forward, because many of the key figures in this from the Blue Jays' side of the story - Alex Anthopoulos, John Farrell, Paul Beeston - are still actively setting the course for the future of the franchise. Their approach to Snider's development should be scrutinized, as should their self-evaluation for how they believe they did. The story paints a picture of a development plan that was improvised at best, and careless at worst. But for the most part, the Jays brain trust remains mostly unapologetic about their handling of Snider.

This is obviously subjective, but to my reading, no one comes off less sympathetic in the story than Cito Gaston. And while it might seem as though that shouldn't matter, it bothers me that he will continue to have a voice in the Blue Jays' front office so long as Beeston remains ensconced as the team's president. This is the man who ran John Olerud out of town for not being more of a pull hitter; who benched Shawn Green in favour of Ruben Sierra; and ultimately, who helped to diminish the value of Travis Snider.

But he's got his World Series rings, so I guess I should just shut my mouth and smile and love him. I'm sure that's what he'd say.

As a side note, both Cito Gaston and Gene Tenace were 25 years old by the time they reached 500 at bats in the big leagues. Maybe they looked upon Snider as a kid who needed to toughen up and listen up, but they can't even remotely relate to what he was going through in his initial stint with the team. When they were 20 years old, they were farting around the Carolinas or the Florida State League, playing low-A ball and failing miserably. Maybe they could have cut the kid some slack rather than looking upon him as an incomplete player absent their personal imprint.


In a way, it seems as though all involved started to forget soon after his initial call-up that Snider should have been regarded as a valued asset. Back in 2008, you could have made Snider the key piece in a major trade for a star veteran player, but by the time 2012 rolled around, he could only fetch a bullpen arm.

For all of the talk around asset management around the Blue Jays in recent years, they certainly seemed careless with this one. Repeatedly, the Jays took steps to diminish his value with other teams in the league. Whether if it was the ham-handed lefty-lefty platoon in which they placed him with Fred Lewis, or choosing Eric Thames over him this year, the team took decisions that continually eroded his reputation, and lowered him to the level of a replacement-level player.

It doesn't seem as though the coaching staff or front office ever got a decent read of his mental makeup. It could be that they figured it wasn't a concern because he was regarded as "mature" and a "good make up" player from his draft year forward. Or maybe they just didn't care, and figured that he was a man and needed to toughen up. Whatever the case, few responsible for overseeing his development with the team seem prepared to take responsibility for what might have gone wrong.

(And the nagging voice at the back of my head wonders: Are they making the same mistakes with Anthony Gose? Or even Brett Lawrie?)

If there is anyone assuming blame throughout the three-part series, it is Snider. He recognizes that he was perhaps overly-sensitive and too easily affected by outside voices. Moreover, he criticizes his own contributions to the long series of crossed wires between himself and the team. He calls himself "proud" and "hard-headed", and fesses up to the anger and disillusionment that he allowed to overtake his moods and affect his play.

And before you scoff or offer up tough love remedies: He's a kid. Remember that, above all. Snider's a smart kid in his early twenties, and he worries way too much about himself. He's struggling to figure out who the hell he is. He's immature, but he's aware of it. He has trouble with authority and hasn't quite figured out how to master his emotions. Sometimes, he beats himself up because he wishes he could be better, and sometimes, he looks to rationalize his behaviour.

Can any of us say that we were much different at his age?

I've believed for several years that the worst thing the Blue Jays did to Travis Snider was to not allow him the latitude to fail. For a young player who had dominated virtually every level of amateur and affiliated ball in which he played, the shock of finding yourself unable to keep up with the best players in the world can be disconcerting. There were hints throughout the past four seasons that Snider might be struggling with his emotions, and letting the negative thoughts get the better of him, though it is surprising to see the extent to which Snider is willing to reveal his neuroses in this piece.

The question I think a lot of us our left with after reading the piece is: "Why would he come out now and say this?" It seems as though there's not a lot of good that can come from publicly airing out your grievances with a former employer.

I suspect that there's something therapeutic for Snider in unloading the past like this. He seems like a thoughtful player, and someone who spends a lot of time - probably too much time - in his own head. On subsequent readings of the full three-part saga, I felt as though Snider was taking on much more blame for his situation than he was doling out towards others. The process of talking through the past few years wasn't an angry one focused on slamming those who had done him wrong. It's a level of self-analysis that isn't often shared by athletes.

It strikes me that the best thing that Travis Snider could have done for himself was to forego pro ball in favour of college. There are aspects of his personal growth he could have dealt with and worked out while on campus, and it strikes me that spending some contemplative time in a classroom here or there would have helped him tremendously, and prepared him mentally to move into what passes for the "grown up world" of Major League Baseball.

Ultimately, Travis Snider is going to be judged by his output on the field, and as of yet, he hasn't nearly reached his promise. Watching him over the years, it always seemed to me that he had the physical skills to play the game at the top level. If he can stay healthy and keep his head together for an extended period of time, he might just be a really good ballplayer yet.

Whenever, wherever or if ever that happens, I'll continue to root for his success.

Angst Now, or Angst Later?

The last time I blogged hereabouts, I was railing against the dying of the light, refusing to go gentle into that good night, swearing I would enjoy the last few weeks of the Blue Jays' disastrous 2012 season.  It's been a challenge, friends.

Since then, out of thirteen games, they've won... [counts]... TWO?  Two goddamn wins?  Yes, that's apparently accurate.  I've tried to focus on the positive -- the settling in of Adeiny Hechavarria, the emerging adequacy of Aaron Loup, I'm sure there are one or two others -- but losing sucks.  The fight to finish fourth in the division ahead of the equally discombobulated Boston Red Sox has been as dreary an endeavour as you might expect.

I think it's jealousy that I'm feeling, actually.  I've taken to cursing the improbable Orioles every time they pull another extra-inning win out of their hindquarters, because I refuse to believe the talent they've assembled there is better than what Toronto has on a position by position basis, yet there they are, challenging for the division lead in late September.  We haven't seen that for two decades as Jays fans, and to see another long-suffering AL East franchise enjoy such a stretch now makes me envious.

On the plus side, though, this ugliness has probably provided me with a certain amount of objectivity I didn't have before about some players on whom decisions will need to be made in the off-season.  As a fan, I want them all to succeed, and even when they don't, I often look past their flaws or assume they can be easily rectified with some off-season coaching, adjustments, and presumably pixie dust.  But this season's struggles have led me to question whether I'd be prepared to see even some of my favourite players be moved in off-season deals if it meant an upgrade.

I think it's healthy to begin to re-evaluate which players are untouchable when it comes time to address the needs that Alex Anthopoulos has candidly identified.  Last off-season, I was singing Yunel Escobar's praises as a long-term solution at shortstop.  Now, given his dismal offensive season, to say nothing of his other issues, I wouldn't hesitate to include him in a trade (even if that's admittedly selling low on an asset).  But the Escobar situation is pretty much self-evident by now.  Who else on the roster is untouchable now -- or more to the point, who would you have considered a longshot to be traded six months ago that now might be more realistically on the block?  Does Colby Rasmus still get the benefit of the doubt after what we've seen apart from one strong month?  Is next year's 23-year-old version of Brett Lawrie more valuable as a trade chip than he will be over the long term as the Blue Jays' every day third baseman?

I expect the Jays' marketing department and/or the Mounties to show up at my door at any moment for daring to suggest that the Blue Jays could trade Brett Lawrie.  And I'm not even saying they should.  Maybe it's just this bleak, brutal September that has me thinking things are worse than they are, and players that were once seen as cornerstones could now be trade bait.  Thankfully there are people who actually get paid to think about baseball making these decisions on a more informed basis than me.

But I do believe there are some surprises in store this off-season with respect to what the team will have to give up to get those much-needed upgrades.  Some prospect-porn types on whom we've been dreaming might end up on some other team's Eastern League affiliate.  And yes, even some big-league players to whom we've become attached will change uniforms too.  The last couple of off-seasons have been filled with one kind of angst:  the kind that comes from the team perceived to be doing little or nothing to improve.  If Anthopoulos starts dealing, we might be faced with a whole different kind of angst this time around.

The Yunel Escobar Eye Black Thing...and Why It Matters

As has been well-documented, this photo was taken by @james_in_to.

This is some next-level numbskullery.

Yunel Escobar spent nine innings in the playing area of the Rogers Centre on Saturday with something stupidly offensive written on his face. In an area where literally thousands of cameras would be pointed in his direction to document the words scrawled on his eye black patches.

What "Tu ere maricon" actually means is a subject of some hair-splitting at this point, but most translations point to it being a slur against gay men. At best, it might mean "you are a sissy" or "you are an effeminate coward".

It's entirely possible that this would have slipped by with little notice, except that a dedicated fan of the Blue Jays who often takes pictures from his vantage point behind the dugout noticed those callous words. When he realized what the words meant  - and he went to pains to find out - he was rightfully upset by them. But he was conflicted as to whether if he should even publish the picture, in spite of the fact that he found it offensive and unacceptable. He felt some loyalty towards the team, and also some loyalty towards the player. As a season ticket holder, he sees them at most games, and some of them smile and nod and wave in his direction, recognizing him as a die-hard fan.

But ultimately, he couldn't let it lie. Nor should he have.

There are those who want to slough off this story as much ado about nothing. They say that Anglophones, as outsiders to the culture and language, can't accurately understand the context, meaning or nuance of the term, or how commonly it is used within certain Spanish-speaking cultures. As someone who is bilingual, I find that argument a tad convenient and unconvincing.

Still others might see it as a "boys will be boys" indiscretion. These are the sort of epithets that are still common within the realm of locker room chatter, and Escobar was likely just horsing around. It's entirely likely that the message had less to do with hate than with lunkheaded nitwittery.

There's also still some elements of this story that need to be sorted out, including who actually wrote those words and how they ended up on Escobar's face. Moreover, who else - teammates, coaches, management - noticed this and when did they know?

Absent that information, I'll pass over what I think should be done to remedy the situation. But let me say why I think this matters.

Don't mistake me for Helen Lovejoy, the preacher's wife from the Simpsons when I ask that you think of the children. I feel embarrassed even going there. But as young boys begin the transition towards being young men, they pick up on cues for what is appropriate from a lot of really dumb places. From TV, from the movies, and when it comes to notions of "manhood", especially from sports.

When I think about where my attitudes about homosexuality were first formed, I immediately flash back to Eddie Murphy's wildy over-the-top interpretations of gay men in his stand up act or in Beverly Hills Cop. Or the Jack Tripper character in Three's Company. It's ridiculous, I know. But for most of my adolescence, an affected lisp and an exaggerated hand on the hip constituted high comedy. And it reinforced the "differentness" of homosexuals to a point which almost completely obscured their humanity.

Even within the past year, I tweeted out something in which the punchline was, more or less, "like a girl." I'm lucky to have a multitude of smart female followers who were quick to point out that while I might have found the quip to be funny, they found it hurtful.

And when it comes to Yunel Escobar, how many Blue Jays fans took the consternation shown towards him in Atlanta as some symbol of what a bunch of backwoods, uncivilized yahoos the fans, broadcasters and members of the Braves were? I'll cop to having made that sort comment. Sometimes, you forget how deeply rooted some of this stuff becomes.

And maybe that's the point. Sports at all levels have allowed this casual homophobia to take root and and become the norm. How many times have you heard hockey fans refer to the Canucks' Swedish twins as the "Sedin Sisters"? How many times have you heard an athlete taunt someone with such a slur, or heard something just as offensive from a fellow patron in the stands? Questioning an opponent's manhood, insinuating that his level of courage is not up to snuff because he's either female or gay are de rigeur.

What shouldn't be lost in this is the amount of character demonstrated by the photographer. He saw something. He saw it was wrong and he said something. It might not have been what was most advantageous to the team or the player for which he roots with a passion that few can match. But for James, there was something bigger at stake. There aren't many of us who would have seen that bigger picture. There aren't many of us who would have spoken up. And this is how these things perpetuate themselves.

Now, as we wait for the official response, one can only hope that the Blue Jays take the opportunity to demonstrate their character in the face of these events and show their willingness to help contribute to the change that can make for a more compassionate and tolerant world. They owe their fans that much.

They certainly owe James that much.

The Mondays: Various and Sundry Items from the Weekend

Photo courtesy @james_in_to. You should follow that dude.

At this point in the year, it's hard to look at a series between a couple of also-rans to pick out the marginally interesting bits of something-or-other that stand out as being meaningful. Give me a second, and let me squint real hard...

Good Morrow: I spoiled myself (and my brother and his lovely companion) and got nice seats behind the plate for Brandon Morrow's start yesterday, in part because I wanted to get a good look at his location and movement. (Also, I thought I was joining a friend in that section, but it turns out he has trouble discerning the difference between 128 and 120. Bully for me, though. It worked out well.)

Morrow ended up with an overstuffed pitch count early on in the game, in part thanks to a few singles and the heart-stopping adventure that is Moises Sierra's defense in right. But I also found that he was spending too much time down and away from Red Sox hitters, trying to coax swings from them on breaking pitches. But as the game wore on and Morrow needed to get more economical in the fourth, fifth and sixth innings, it seemed to me that Morrow was working inside with his fastball more often, eliciting weak swings on hard stuff. It was pretty to watch.

To say that a player has "ace stuff" is a bit of an empty statement at this point, because so many pitchers do. What distinguishes players who assume that role is how they use what they've got. Beyond the quality and velocity of Morrow's pitches, he shows an ability to bear down in tight situations, select the right pitch and to hit his spots when he needs to.

My biggest concern with Morrow going forward - and what prevents me from calling him a bona fide "ace" - is his ability to stay healthy throughout the entire season. I certainly recognize that this year's injury wasn't an elbow or shoulder issue, so maybe there is solace to be taken from that fact. But Morrow's health is not a concern that I consider separately from the economy of his outings, because he needs to have some easier innings if he's going to make it through more than 200 of them in the coming seasons.

Hech Variations:  It was a treat on Sunday afternoon to get a good look at Adeiny Hechavarria, both at the plate and in the field at his natural position. Seeing him smack a tater late in a tight game was just the gravy on top of the sundae.

After his early big league struggles, Hechavarria has posted a .725 OPS (.294 OBP, .431 SLG) in his last 22 games, and he looks increasingly comfortable at the plate. His swings are more aggressive and less defensive lately, making the notion of him as an everyday player next season seem less remote.

(If the low-.700's OPS scares you, it's worth noting that in 2011, the average output for an MLB shortstop was a .317 OBP and a .380 SLG, while second base was .320/.389. There's a lot of failure that you have to bear at those premium up-the-middle positions.)

There's a pretty interesting argument that we could have as to whether if Hechavarria needs to play shortstop for the Jays to get full value from him next year. It looks as though his glove will be among the elite at the position, and shifting that over to second base might squander some of his best attributes.

This isn't an attempt to rush Yunel Escobar out the door, as I don't think that he's as bad as he's looked at times this year. But the Yunel-or-Adeiny discussion has gone from vague chatter over the past few years to a fairly substantial question for 2013 and beyond.

All This and More...: If you missed the Blue Jays Talk post-game show yesterday, I snuck into the radio broadcast booth and chatted with Mike Wilner yesterday afternoon. If you want to hear us talk about Adeiny/Yunel, ponder minor league affiliates, swoon over Shin-Soo Choo, or other sundry items that came up, check out the audio at the bottom of Mike's post-game blogpost yesterday.

There Will Be Hard Times: Vague Thoughts on 2012, 1995, Gose and Batting Coaches

Photo courtesy @james_in_to. He's swell, and has lots of awesome Jays pics here.

I won't bore you with a rehashing the past two months of Blue Jays baseball, which has rushed past us in a furious blur of crazy injuries and depleted lineups and...well...you were there. You get it. And if you were here right now, we'd hug it out, with a couple of additional back slaps and an extra squeeze, just to let you know we're there with you.

Then again, we haven't really had much to offer lately on the blog, which is attributable in part to real life getting a lot more hectic than I'd anticipated. With limited stores of strength and intestinal fortitude remaining, the prospect of tossing out a blog post that would certainly result in my being smeared as a puppet, Kool-Aid drinker, apologist or stooge seemed like a waste of my time and energy.

I try to take all of this with a sense of humour, but I don't always succeed. I've found my own mood about the Jays to be somewhat less than generous lately, which leads to some bile spillage on occasion. But I'm always a bit sad when I tweet out something sardonic on the state of the team, and see that my comment gets gleefully magnified by others. I guess some people can take it in good fun, and others just want to smear their anger over the state of the team across everything. Maybe we all just need to chill a bit.

Before getting on with the business of talking baseball, let me add one thing that I intend as a positive, but will likely sound negative on its surface: Things can always get worse. At some point, the Jays' fortunes will undoubtedly be worse than this. One thing you can rely on in life is that if you get through the bad times, there will be more on the way. You suffer, and you persevere. You take care of the things that are under your control and you don't get upset over the things that are beyond you. That's life.

What's Worse Than This?
If you were to construct a full roster of the greatest Blue Jays of all time, you'd likely find Devon White, Robbie Alomar, Paul Molitor, Joe Carter, John Olerud, Shawn Green, Carlos Delgado, Juan Guzman and Pat Hentgen all in the mix for that team. You might even be able to squeeze David Cone or Al Leiter into the mix, based on the high points of their tenure with the Jays.

And yet, a team with ALL of those aforementioned players went 56-88 in 1995, finishing dead last in the AL East and looking miserable doing it.

The majority of those players had just contributed to championship teams, and most of them would go on to be productive members of either the Blue Jays or other teams in the ensuing decade. So the point here, as much as there is one, is to point out that sometimes good teams have terrible seasons. Sometimes, teams play far above the level of their talent - Hello Baltymore! - and some teams play so far below it that it's hard to imagine how things got so bad.

The 1996 Blue Jays had a lesser roster than the year before, with Alomar, White, Molitor, Cone and Leiter out, replaced by Tomas Perez, Otis Nixon, Jacob Brumfield, Erik Hanson and Marty Janzen. And yet, the latter and lesser squad won 18 more games. They say you can't predict baseball, and you certainly can't expect to track progress in straight lines.

In the coming months, there are going to be many in the "spend to contend" camp who assure you that if ownership just got off its wallet and spent on acquiring free agents or expensive veterans to fill in the roster voids, this team would certainly contend. It sounds so easy, really. You plug in the numbers of "known quantities", and bingo-bango: There's your contender. But the truth is that 29 teams every year fail to win the World Series. Two-thirds of teams will fail to make the post-season, for a multitude of reasons. Some of this is foreseeable, but there's a big chunk of it that is dumb luck. And if someone props themselves up beside the flaming pile of a wrecked season and says "I told you so", just remind them that predicting failure in baseball is pretty much the easiest bet there is.

The Jays might "fix" everything this offseason. They might spend vast sums on all of the proven veterans, build a super-Strat-o-Rific monster team, have the benefit of great health and tremendous contributions from their emerging players, and they could still end up on the outside looking in.

If that's a problem for you, you might want to find another pursuit. There is no "Rookie" setting on the real game.

Anything Gose
I don't want to get too far out in front of the "Anthony Gose is back on track" story, but seeing him finally put a few good swings on balls reminded me of another Jays outfielder after his initial call-up.

In his first two seasons with the Jays, Alex Rios posted a .321 on base and a .390 slugging percentage, managing just 11 homers in 979 plate appearances. At the time, it seemed to me as though Rios was focused on just getting his bat on the ball, and not getting embarrassed at the plate. For a player who was 6'5", it seemed as though he was satisfied to just poke at the ball and manage to put it in play.

Gose's approach in the early days has included him trying to drop lots of bunts, a skill at which he is oddly deficient in spite of his apparent affection for it. He's also taken lots of weak and late swings, hacking down on the ball and rarely lifting it with any authority.

Rios was three years older than Gose before he started to really settle in and start swinging with some vigour, swatting 41 homers and posting a .352 OBP/.505 SLG in the 1209 plate appearances that made up his third and fourth seasons. With another year of seasoning at Triple-A next year, Gose might prove yet that he's more than a slash and burn, fourth outfielder.

Two Batting Coaches?
Chad Mottola's reputation continues to grow, as Gose's improvement coincided with some additional time spent with his batting coach in both Las Vegas and after they both received the September callup.

It's always difficult to know how much impact coaches have on players, but if there's something positive that Mottola can contribute at the big league level, I see no reason why the Jays wouldn't add him as an additional hitting coach for next year. So long as there is some agreement between Mottola and hitting coach Dwayne Murphy on the approach they want to take to addressing specific players, an additional set of eyes on the coaching staff is a pretty minor financial investment that could pay dividends at the plate.

What Remains

Hey, a sweep's a sweep, right?

In the flickering, dying light of a season that has gone all kinds of wrong in all kinds of ways, it still puts a smile on my face when the Blue Jays can head into a division rival's stadium and take three out of three games over a weekend.  Yes, I know it's a sweep of the smouldering crater that remains of the 2012 Boston Red Sox we're talking about. But anything the Jays can do to contribute to the ridiculous soap opera that organization has become should be something we welcome unconditionally.  So give me my moment, would you?

There are some good things happening again, at least.  Brett Lawrie is back in the leadoff spot, and J.P. Arencibia is back behind the plate.  Adeiny Hechavarria and Anthony Gose look like they may have a little more to offer than they showed when they first arrived in the big leagues.  Edwin Encarnacion continues to shine.

Rather than spend the rest of September obsessing over how the team is going to fill second base and left field next year, or which starting pitchers might be available on the trade market, I'm going to try to enjoy what little baseball we have left -- Blue Jays games or otherwise.  I"m going to ENJOY watching Gose and Hechavarria trying to prove they deserve spots on the 2013 team.  I'm going to ENJOY watching Encarnacion try to finish as the home run leader.  I'm going to ENJOY watching Brandon Morrow mow down opposing lineups, and Steve Delabar striking out hapless batters with nasty splitters, and Rajai Davis wreaking havoc on the basepaths.

No, this isn't what we wanted.  Nothing can replace the excitement of a pennant or wild card race, and I don't have to remind fans how long it's been since the Jays have been a part of either of one of those.  I'm not saying it's good enough.  There's work to do on this team to get it healthy and to add the necessary pieces for it to be the playoff contender we want.  It's going to be a fun, long, interesting, infuriating, disappointing and/or redeeming off-season, depending on your perspective.

But I got leaves falling off the tree out front of my house, here, people.  Let's not forget just how close we are to not having ANY BASEBALL TO WATCH AT ALL.  They started freakin' FOOTBALL today (in case you were living under a rock or aren't on Twitter).  If it weren't for a labour dispute, the first twenty minutes of your sportscast would be dedicated to showing a couple AHL hooligans duke it out in an intra-squad Maple Leafs scrimmage.  I know that we've all clamoured for "meaningful games in September" for as long as we can remember, but try to bear in mind that meaningless games are still games, goddammit.

Hustle, Heart, Physics.

Gotta want it...yoinks!

No Sense Putting it Off

I'm a terrible procrastinator.  If there's something that needs doing today, I'm absolutely world-class at finding reasons why it can wait until tomorrow, or next week, or once the snow melts (see: lights, Christmas, taking down of).  It's admittedly a less-than-ideal way to run one's life, but I've never been fired from a job and The Org Wife hasn't divorced me yet, so I can't imagine I'll be changing anytime soon.

Thankfully, the people in charge of the Toronto Blue Jays don't share my approach to putting things off until the last possible second. Or at least, that's one charitable explanation for their decision to rebuild the relief pitching corps during the later stages of the 2012 regular season, as opposed to the off-season.

I'll count myself among those who weren't exactly beaming about the decision to trade the talented yet enigmatic Travis Snider for Brad Lincoln, a young-ish bullpen arm who had struggled as a starter in his early career.  But as time has worn on, I've begun to look at that deal as part of a package -- one that began with the J.A. Happ trade and that culminated with the Lincoln and Steve Delabar trades.

Taken as one, these trades have put the bullpen in a far different (and far stronger) position than it was in the early part of the season, and in a way that sets up some continuity for 2013 as well.  Delabar and Lincoln, along with Casey Janssen and a hopefully-healthy Sergio Santos, can already be pencilled in as half of what should be a pretty effective, reasonably young, hard-throwing bullpen (or more than half, if the eight-man pen rightfully fades from the plans next year).

The emergence of Aaron Loup is also promising, and if he can continue performing at even a remotely comparable level to what he's delivered thus far, he would make a fine left-handed complement to that core relief group.

As for the aforementioned Happ, the seeming indecision about his role after his acquisition -- starter or reliever -- puts him in a group of three pitchers fighting for what looks like two spots.  One of Happ, Brett Cecil or Aaron Laffey seems likely to open next season as a starter with another filling a long-relief role (noting that Cecil is set to work out of the bullpen as a September call-up and Laffey is already plying his trade there, while Happ is currently pitching quite effectively in the rotation even as I type).

*EDIT after the fact: Laffey, of course, is not actually signed as of now for 2013, making this less of a competition than it seemed.  These are the sorts of things I should check before I write, I suppose.

The point is, barring injury or significant trades, there are a great many relatively solidified spots already in the bullpen for 2013, and this puts next year's team miles ahead of where it has been entering the last couple of seasons.  Rather than filling out the bullpen with available arms on one-year free agent contracts just prior to spring training -- basically the modus operandi for much of the Anthopoulos tenure -- he tended to it when the opportunity presented itself in another way.

I have to wonder whether Alex Anthopoulos began looking ahead to this off-season several weeks ago, and determined that if he had the chance now to add the bullpen personnel he wanted, he was going to do it so that he could focus on the more glaring weaknesses that need to be addressed over the winter.  In other words, unlike your humble correspondent, there was no procrastination.

Anthopoulos has largely acknowledged the areas of need: the starting rotation, left field, second base (probably) and first base/DH.  There was plenty of scoffing about Anthopoulos' comments in which he lauded the bullpen (and the offense) as "championship-calibre", but even if you take the boasting with a grain of salt, the arms he's added to the bullpen mix have at least added a small measure of certainty to the off-season.

I'll be the first to acknowledge the volatility of relief pitching (remember May when we all felt like the bullpen would be a 2012 strength?), so all of this might be moot if the performances out there all go pear-shaped.  But Anthopoulos has clearly changed his approach to building a bullpen, focusing on controllable pitchers now rather than scrambling for springtime leftovers, and if those pitchers can continue their current level of play, it'll be one fewer box to have to try to check off for 2013.

Tao's Mammoth Tweet Bag: Your Tweeted Questions, My Blogged Answers

Hello, friends. These have been trying times, haven't they. If this season has taught us anything, it is that the best laid plans of young, ninja-like general managers can be torn asunder even faster than they can be constructed. Castles made of sand, and all that sort of thing.

Which isn't to say that this season was all for naught. (And there I go, speaking in the past tense again.) At some point, I'm certain that I'll be able to whip up my enthusiasm into a frenzy, and show the world I'll never give up that ship.¹ And if you needed something to raise your spirits, seeing José Bautista drop two bombs in a rehab outing certainly doesn't hurt, does it? We'll get through this friends. I swear, we'll live to see the sun shine on this franchise once more. And now, on to your cards and letters. First up:

@taoofstieb Please give me a good reason to continue watching this team. #TweetBag
— Matt Horner (@5mins4fighting) August 23, 2012

Well, Matt. I feel you, buddy. It's been grim, and the madness just never seems to stop, does it? When David Cooper goes down with a shoulder ouchy, and he was your cleanup hitter and one of the few barely-blinking lights on the roster, you know the season has gone to a darker place than those spelunking gals in the movie The Descent. Watch your head for stalagmites. (Or are those stalactites?)

As for why you should keep watching, I'll just remind you that there's a chill in the air. Soon it will be fall, and then it will be winter, and then you'll be staring out your window at snow banks, pining for the start of Spring Training. We only get six months of baseball in the run of a year, so tune in and enjoy, because watching a bad baseball team is still preferable to watching whatever it is that they'll be playing this winter.

Nextly!

@taoofstieb Should the Jays shut players down and tank the rest of the season?
— Bryan J Cook (@BCookBCool) August 23, 2012

There are few notions that I despise more than the argument that a team should tank the season. This isn't basketball, where teams essentially battle for the one meaningful player to enter the league through the draft each year. If the Jays are as astute in their amateur scouting as we're led to believe, then the difference between a third pick or a ninth pick in the draft shouldn't be that significant in the long run. And besides: Mike Trout might end up being the transcendent star of the next 20 years, and he was drafted 25th overall.

Now, let's weasel our way back down from the moral high ground for a moment.

In the new collective bargaining agreement, the top 10 picks in the draft are protected, meaning that they would not be surrendered to a team should the Jays meander into the free agent market. (More on that in a moment.) So, I suppose that it would be best for the team if they weren't, say, the 19th best franchise in baseball and were forced to give up the 11th pick in the draft should they sign a free agent.

Does this mean the team should tank? No, but it also probably means that they shouldn't go to heroic lengths in the final six weeks of the season in some valiant run at a .500 record. No need to rush players like J.P. Arencibia back into action if they're not ready, just to take one potential roster move.  
Speaking of free agents...

@taoofstieb who are 3 FAs uncle Tao wants to see in BJ unis next year, and what are the optimal and realistic terms (not the same thing)
— Luke DeWitt (@whatadewitt) August 23, 2012

The time is probably right for the Jays to supplement their Major League roster with some established and experienced players, especially pitchers. Given the regression of the Jays' pitching corps from the big leagues down through the higher levels of the system, there's a yawning gap that has opened in a pretty critical area. Unfortunately, the pool of available arms is less than impressive.

There's Zack Greinke at the top of the heap, and I would very much hope that the Jays at least toss their hat into his ring. I'd think it unlikely that he'd come to Toronto for a number of reasons - some guys just don't seem to embrace the idea of living in a foreign land - but the Jays should certainly see how many sacks of loonies it would take to convince him otherwise. But make no mistake: Greinke is going to get a contract that is the other side of reasonable. The Cole Hamels contract (six years, $144 million) should be the starting point of the deal.

There are some other names that interest me on a certain level, and I think I've mentioned them before. Brandon McCarthy and Edwin Jackson in particular strike me as pitchers who could be solid number threes in the rotation, with some potential as a two. Jake Peavy might be worth a look, especially if you can get him for three years or less at a decent number. And lets not forget our own free-agent-to-be, Carlos Villanueva, who is 29 and looking like he could be a decent back of the rotation option.

More about pitchers...

@taoofstieb Random question. Do the Jays have any top of the rotation prospect SP's that could be ready for 2013?
— Brown Guy (@devenp) August 23, 2012

Unfortunately, I'd have to say no. There are potential top of the rotation guys further down the line, and the pitching staff at the lower Single-A Lansing Lugnuts is certainly one you can dream on. But Justin Nicolino (20 years old, 2.52 ERA, 112 Ks/18 BBs in 114.1 innings), Noah Syndergaard (19, 2.88, 109/30, 93.2), and Aaron Sanchez (20, 2.27, 89/49, 83.1) are still at least a year away, and possibly three years away from truly being relevant to the Jays' big league club. Elsewhere in the minors, Sean Nolin has had a nice season at High-A Dunedin (2.19 ERA, 90 Ks/20 BBs in 86.1 innings), and recently got the call to Double-A New Hampshire. At 22, he could be in line to make an appearance in Toronto as soon as next year.

But as we've seen this year, there's a lot that can happen - trades and injuries, in particular - to young pitchers between the time that they sparkle in the Midwest League and reaching the Majors.

More pitching talk...

@taoofstieb Steve Delabar is pretty cool, eh? #TweetBag
— Archi Zuber (@Archizuber) August 23, 2012

Delabar's had a really nice run in the 11 games since he was acquired by the Jays. I like the fact that he throws in the mid-to-upper 90's with a delivery that doesn't look overly strenuous. "Easy cheese", as Uncle Tabby would call it.

The output that you get from bullpen arms varies wildly from year to year, so I'm not about to get out the anointing oils and declare Delabar a back-of-the-pen fixture quite yet. But there's something interesting there, and I don't mind having the extra arms around. In case, you know, 20 guys go down with injuries next year as well.

You wanna talk bullpen?

@taoofstieb odds Casey gets the closer gig to start 2013 over Santos given his performance this season? #TweetBag
— Elliott Boswell (@Boswelliott) August 23, 2012

To start the season, assuming good health for both, I'd think it's almost certain that this team comes north with Janssen as the closer, and Santos as one of the late-inning bullpen arms. Which isn't to say that they end the season with those roles. Heck, I wouldn't even put much of a bet on them keeping those respective roles through the end of April.

This is the nature of bullpens. There's only one Mariano Rivera.

And on the perpetual topic of healthy pitchers...

@taoofstieb If you had Quantum Leap abilities, and wound up as any Blue Jays GM, what’s one trade you’d undo? #TweetBag
— Jesse Spector (@jessespector) August 23, 2012

Well, first off, I'd hope that these Quantum Leap abilities would be accompanied by Scott Bakula's strong jaw line. That man is handsome, right?

I'm sure that people have their own list of bad trades that they'd undo - feel free to leave them in the comments! - but there's no trade that I can think of that damaged the team in the long term more than the David Wells - Mike Sirotka deal. Wells was coming off what was thought to be a pretty good season back then (20 wins, though with a 4.11 ERA), and it seems as though the Jays could have turned him into something more than nothing.

Sirotka never threw a single pitch for the Blue Jays, and the hole in the rotation created by this something-for-nothing deal led the Jays to rely on a rogues gallery of middling starters in the ensuing years. Remember Steve Parris? Or Chris Michalak? Fun times.

Since we're in the wayback machine...

@taoofstieb what's the best Blue Jays game you've ever attended in person? #TweetBag
— Back In Blue ⚾ BIB (@BackInBlue2012) August 23, 2012

 Oh, it's so hard to pick a favourite, isn't it? There are a number of games from the more recent editions of the Jays that have been pretty great, but three games from the past actually stand out in my memory.

August 8, 1998 -  Jays defeat A's 6-5: Believe it or not, this was the first game I attended in person, and I still remember the experience vividly. It was Ed Sprague's return to the Jays after being traded to Oakland, and one play in particular always stood out for me: A plastic bag blew onto the field, and before time was called, Sprague took several steps away from his position to grab it. Seeing this, José Canseco - who had just reclaimed his number 33 jersey after Sprague's departure - bolted for third. Though he was thrown out in the process, I always appreciated Canseco's awareness in trying to take advantage of the situation.

Canseco made up for the out by hitting a long bomb later that afternoon, and scoring the winning run in the 10th - we didn't call them walk-offs then, did we - on a Mark Dalesandro single. Shawn Green also homered, on one of the prettiest swings I've ever seen. A lovely, arcing shot that landed just over the maple leaf that adorned the wall in the outfield corners.

Notably, this was the first and last time that I'd see Dave Stieb pitch. In the midst of his comeback season, Stieb threw 1.1 innings of relief that afternoon, taking the ball from starter Pat Hentgen.


April 22, 2000 - Jays defeat Yankees 8-2 - A complete game thrown by Kelvim Escobar against the Yankees and David Cone in an 8-2 victory on.  I had great seats behind the Jays' dugout, and Tony Batista homered.

June 29, 2001 - Jays defeat Red Sox 8-4 - Another game with a great vantage point, just behind the In the Action seats behind home plate. I yelled "Vamenos El Toro!" to Raul Mondesi, who winked at me, then hit a grand slam off Bryce Florie. The Jays wore the T-Bird. Tim Wakefield started for the Red Sox, and this was probably the best view of a knuckleballer I'll ever have.

And with that fit of nostalgia behind us, let's look ahead...

@taoofstieb which 51s callup has impressed you the most? And a followup: are there any you'd like to see on the Jays fulltime in 2013?
— Mark (@thejockocracy) August 23, 2012

I really like Moises Sierra. He doesn't always look pretty - he moves like an old pickup bouncing dangerously on a bumpy road - but he looks as though he has the skills to stick as a bench player next year. He hasn't been overwhelmed by the pitching (.817 OPS in 55 PAs), though you'd like to see him take a few more walks.

From the pitching side, Aaron Loup's really been something else, hasn't he? For a guy who Jays fans barely knew a few months ago, he's now one of the most appreciated arms in the bullpen. I can discern this from the fact that when he gets the call, my Twitter feed doesn't blow up with exasperation. I've already pencilled him in as a LOOGY for 2013.

One final bit of crystal ballin'...

@taoofstieb Is the Jays' opening day left fielder for next season on the roster right now? #Tweetbag
— Dave Church (@dave_church) August 23, 2012

 Nope. If he were, it would be either Rajai Davis or Moises Sierra, as I'm pretty confident that Anthony Gose is going to get another year of seasoning in Triple-A. But both of those players seem more suited to a bench role, and if there is a decent bat on either the trade or free agent market, you'd have to presume that would be a spot to put them. Maybe Melky Cabrera could start his image rehabilitation in Toronto?

Okay, you've all had enough. I hope this Twitter Mail Baggy thing leaves you in a better mood than when you arrive. Now go have fun, and enjoy the waning days of the season.

---

 1. Somewhat rambling and non-sensical, you say? Actually, just a reference to one of my all-time favourite comedy records, Eddie Lawrence's "The Old Philosopher". I suggest you take a listen. It might just lift your spirits.

Picking From The Scrap Heap

I'll be honest:  it's been exceedingly difficult to scare up the necessary motivation to write much about the Blue Jays lately, what with the team languishing in the basement of the AL East and its most exciting talent in various stages of recovery from injury.  Earlier in the season, when the team was healthy, even if they weren't consistently winning games, I could content myself with watching Brandon Morrow and Jose Bautista, because you never knew when they were going to do something special.  Nothing against the Mike McCoys of the world, but it's not like his at-bats get me tingling with anticipation.

Maybe that's giving short shrift to the fill-ins who've had to make the best of it as the every-day lineup gets better.  The effort has been there, but it's abundantly clear that the talent gap between the "championship calibre offense" they are capable of fielding and the second or third string is fairly daunting.

For the sake of comparison, we need only look -- as is so often the case -- at the top of the AL East standings, where an injury-riddled New York Yankees team continues to succeed.  When offensive starters have gone down, the Yankees have had the capacity to replace them with talent that seems to fit the role almost perfectly.  Some of that might seem lucky; I don't think they were counting on a career renaissance from Eric Chavez or for Ichiro Suzuki to land in their laps.  Regardless, they've smartly -- and perhaps more surprisingly, cheaply -- assembled real depth on their roster.

Meanwhile, a quick glance down the Toronto bench, such as it is, has been discouraging all year.  I'm not going to dwell on the offensive ineptitude of Omar Vizquel and Jeff Mathis, because that ground has been well covered.  Yes, the injury epidemic has forced them and others into far more plate appearances than anyone would have liked.  And you can't fill an entire 40-man roster with above-average major leaguers to prepare for the worst.  But no matter who is filling the backup roles, they're going to end up with playing time in 2013.

So what's the solution?  Especially with a few remaining starting spots to fill this offseason?  I could do a little furious rosterbation here and start plugging holes with David Ortiz, Brandon Phillips or Shin-Soo Choo, but given the state of the pitching staff, I have a feeling Alex Anthopoulos is going to have a little less in terms of resources to commit to not only those starting offensive spots, but the bench as well.  If his focus, as he has said, will be on the rotation, he might have to be a little creative on the side of the ledger that includes extra position players.

I'm open to suggestions as to what that creativity should look like.  It's still just August, and it's a bit depressing to be looking ahead to 2013 already anyway.  But I do hope that some serious effort is made to find the kind of depth that always seems to show up on winning teams, if only to relieve me of the sense of impending doom I get whenever the bench is called upon.  It might mean moving up a level from picking through the scrap heap that produced the likes of our beloved Omar -- the non-roster invitees and minor league free agent deals.  Maybe it's time to move on to a better class of scrap heap.

Visions of Farmland

And since we're already all talking about 2013...

(Actually, I started to think about 2014 last night. Stop me. It's a cry for help.)

Another offseason consideration that's already snuck its way onto the radar is the matter of Toronto's Triple-A affiliation for the coming years. Having spent four years in Las Vegas, it would seem as though another venue might be desirable for everyone involved.

This isn't to bag on Vegas, because it seems as though the team and the city has done right by the Jays for the most part, in spite of the fact that they were joined in organizational matrimony mostly because they were the only two wallflowers left without partners when the slow dance started.

(New ear worm: Chris De Burgh's "The Lady in Red". You're welcome.)

The frustration with Vegas as a fan - and I presume for the front office, though perhaps that's a stretch, and they'd never tell either way - is that the results that are generated there can only be viewed through the funhouse glass of the Pacific Coast League. The numbers in the boxscores and in the accumulated tables of stats are not trustworthy, and essentially meaningless if you're attempting to discern the difference between potential prospects and organizational players. Maybe that isn't a bad thing, as smarter people than I continue to point out that you can't scout a boxscore. Still, the results seem so skewed that it's almost impossible to tell what a player is actually doing in the PCL.

Moreover, the Jays really aren't able to give their young pitchers a full season at Triple-A, because who would want to subject their emerging arms to those conditions? So pitchers are asked to repeat a level and get extra seasoning at Double-A, when it might be beneficial for them to have a three-month stint at Triple-A before coming up.

These gripes are obvious at this point, but the question now is: What's the alternative?

According to Mike McCann's MinorLeagueSource.com, there are currently 11 Triple-A franchises that have yet to come to a agreement for the next two years on their Player Development Contracts. They are as follows, with current affiliation in brackets:

International League

• Buffalo Bisons (New York NL)
• Pawtucket Red Sox (Boston)
• Rochester Red Wings (Minnesota) 

Pacific Coast League

• Albuquerque Isotopes (Los Angeles NL)
• Fresno Grizzlies (San Francisco)
• Iowa Cubs (Chicago NL)
• Las Vegas 51s (Toronto) 
• Memphis Redbirds (St. Louis)
• Nashville Sounds (Milwaukee)
  
• New Orleans Zephyrs (Miami)
  
• Oklahoma RedHawks (Houston)
  

Looking at that list, I'd scratch Pawtucket given their long affiliation with the Boston. (And who would want ANOTHER farm team in the Red Sox nation?) It's also a pretty reasonable guess to say that Fresno, Memphis, and Iowa. Albuquerque is a bit of a wild card, though by most accounts, the Dodgers' return to the city in 2008 has been successful at the gate in a new-ish facility. The Astros were forced into Oklahoma City when the Nolan Ryan-owned Round Rock Express switched over to the Rangers, but from a disctance, it seems as though 

All of which leaves three PCL cities with a historical perception of being somewhat undesirable for a variety of reasons (Las Vegas, Nashville and New Orleans) and two IL teams, in Buffalo and Rochester.

Baseball America's Josh Leventhal reported back in May that while there shouldn't be much movement in affilations this offseason, Toronto's desire to move closer to home was clear. Beyond geography, the Jays should be amply motivated to pursue both of those IL alternatives, if only to return to some semblance of normalcy when it comes to the development path they set out for their prospects. As a team that is placing a greater emphasis on the minor league system, you have to imagine that they'd much rather see the Lansing Three pitching primarily in the Northeast as opposed to the high deserts of the Southwest.

I know fans are going to stampede towards the choice of Buffalo as the most natural fit, but given that we've already been down that road once and come away empty, it's worth taking a glance at what the other possibilities are. If the Bisons re-up with the Mets, Rochester is hardly a consolation prize. While not quite as close to the GTA, Rochester has multiple flights to Toronto daily, and sits just across Lake Ontario. If anyone ever had the notion to begin running that ferry service across the lake again, you could say that minor leaguers getting the call were "riding the ferry" to the big club.

Okay, maybe I'm a little to attached to a nice turn of phrase. Still, a large portion of the Jays' fanbase from Oshawa through Kingston to Ottawa would only be a few hours away from the top affiliate.

The forthcoming offseason will be fascinating for a number of reasons, but in an amongst the multitude of free agent and trade rumours that are certain to occupy the time of Jays fans, this affiliation agreement may be the most important deal that the team signs over the winter.

Where Do We Go Now?

Sad Bautista is sad. We miss you too, buddy.

Ear worms are fun, right? Those niggling little tunes that roll around in your head endlessly, drowning out all rational thought and subverting any attempts you might make at quiet contemplation. So fun. And really, they're more fun if you share them, so that others suffer the same way you do. Wanna suffer alongside your favourite online scribe? Read on, my friends.

For about three weeks now, I've had Guns N' Roses' "Sweet Child o' Mine" stuck in my head. Not so bad, you say? It's a pretty great tune, and stands up pretty well 25 years later. (Did you just feel as old as I did just then?) But the problem is that there is only one portion of the song that is stuck in my head, and it lights up every time I think of the Blue Jays in the run of a day. So my eyes land on the mini Scott Rolen bobblehead on my desk, and suddenly, W. Axl Rose starts asking the question:

"Where do we go? Where do we go now? Where do we go?"

That goes on in an endless cycle, with Axl's vocals getting increasingly desperate and whiny and screechy. And so while the song's lyrics seem to be pointing me towards a salient question, the off-key caterwauling drowns out any thought before it even has the chance to be formed. This is annoying.

The truth is that I've pushed back on pondering the future of the franchise because I just want this season to play out. That's not to say that I'm holding out hope for the rag-tag band of survivors to pull together and miraculously make a run at the coin-flip game. But considering that I hear from the wiseacres and cynics every year starting in the winter that the Blue Jays are already out of contention, I just don't feel the need to place the wreath upon the stone until I absolutely have to. Once you give up on the season, you might as well put on your parka and start raking the lawn. I'm not ready for that quite yet.

As a general impression, though, let me say this: I don't think that this team is that far off, but at the same time, I think that 2013 is going to present some real challenges.

It would have been overly simplistic to assume that the path towards this high plain in the sun where the Jays contend every year was going to be direct and without obstacles. Injuries happen - do they ever - and can determine the fate of a franchise for several years. With a significant portion of the Jays' pitching talent in various stages of injury and recovery, next year's staff will likely need to be supplemented by some short term help from veteran free agents.

And I hear some of you screaming: "YAHOO, WE'RE GETTING ZACH GREI-NER-KEY!" Slow up and climb down off that horse, hoss. That's pretty much the most unlikeliest of scenarios. And save your tantrums or your airing of frustration about the ownership. It's beneath you.

If we're lucky, the veteran free agent talent that the Blue Jays bring in will be something along the lines of a number three starter. Someone who can pick up the slack should Ricky Romero repeat this year's underwhelming performance, and should they be faced with the prospect of yet another partial season from Brandon Morrow. In that context, pitchers like Edwin Jackson, Brandon McCarthy, Joe Saunders, or Anibal Sanchez might be considered a "good get", but all will likely command big salaries and multi-year deals.

The next level down is a whole heap of wishes and prayers, and if you want to parse through the list and find hope, MLB Trade Rumo(u)rs has the full list of 2013 free agents right here. Have at 'er.

The question, I suppose, will be if the Jays think that the acquisitions for 2013 will become superfluous in 2014 once the cavalcade of wounded arms comes marching back into action. I won't pretend to have an answer to that question, nor will I hazard a guess at what Alex Anthopoulos will do with it. Do we even know what Kyle Drabek or Drew Hutchison will have in the tank in 2014? And who will be part of the next shift of injured troops to be convalescing in that season?

I'm told repeatedly that if the Blue Jays just got off their wallets and threw some money around, all of the question marks would become exclamation points. I really wish it were that easy.

So where, in fact, do we go now? For now, let's just get through the rest of the season. It's going to be tough, I know, because this team that we're rooting for is nothing like the one we'd envisioned coming into the season. But let's not get bogged down there. Let's not suppose that the team we're seeing is much of a reflection of what we're supposed to be seeing, or what we might see next year. 

And let's not forget: Winter is coming. So let's smile while the sun still shines warmly on the last weeks of the season.

Long Weekend Observations, Opinions, and Sentiments

It’s a good thing, I suppose, that I waited until after the Blue Jays’ recent four-game series in Oakland was over and the team was safely on their way to Tampa, as opposed to blogging on, say, Friday.  My spirits are decidedly better after a couple of back-to-back victories to salvage a series split than they were at the tail end of a season-high six game losing streak – even if that losing streak seems to be a more accurate indication of the talent level of the team right now than the consecutive wins would trick us into believing.

If these are the dog days of summer, in keeping with the theme, the Jays are passing off some mongrel mutts as lineups.  For instance, it was one thing to carry the rather anemic bats of your Omar Vizquels and Jeff Mathises (Mathii?) in the early part of the season when they were mostly glued to the bench and maybe seeing one to two starts per week.  But it’s a different matter altogether to have those kinds of subpar offensive performers dotting a lineup that, on at least one occasion this weekend, was more than half made up of players who started and have spent most of the year in Las Vegas.

And yet.  Against a “playoff contender” by many accounts in the Oakland A’s – a team with very good pitching that’s bumping along at eight games over .500 – they split four games on the road, and might have made it three of four given a little more extra inning luck on Friday.  I realize this probably sounds a little Pollyannaish, since they also came off three straight stinkers in Seattle, but my point (I think) is that even among those teams considered to be just a cut above the likes of the middling Jays, the gap isn’t that big, and when the Jays are healthy, they’re probably on the positive side of it.

Ricky Romero

While I’ve got my rose-coloured glasses on, can we put our hands together for Ricky Romero*?  With just three hits conceded over an effective seven innings on Saturday (albeit with four walks sprinkled in alongside five strikeouts), our enigmatic ace-cum-whipping-boy had one of his best outings in recent memory.  He was TERRIBLE at pitching to the score like Jack Morris would have, as the single earned run he gave up was enough to preclude him from chalking up a much-coveted win.  That honour went to Jesse Chavez for his work in extra innings, the reward for which was a convoluted designation-for-assignment.  ANYWAY, Ricky pitched well, and he just mostly looked like he was in control out there.  He had a glimmer of confidence – dare I say swagger – that had been missing in action for far too long.  It was nice to see, and I was probably happier for him on Saturday than any other player on the team.

* NOTE: putting hands together can be repeated in a clapping motion, or hands may be clasped for a longer period of time in prayer for continued improvement.  Your choice. 

Youth Will Be Served

That’s not to say I’m not also happy for some of the erstwhile 51s who have found their way into the Jays lineup, out of either aggressive escalation of their competition level or sheer necessity due to injury.  It’s easy to get discouraged about the recent trajectory of the season and argue over the organizational response, but the upside is that we’re getting a look at some intriguing players.  I’m not just referring to Anthony Gose and Adeiny Hechavarria here, who are obviously fascinating if possibly in a bit over their heads in their first tastes of MLB action.  I’ve also been interested in Moises Sierra as a potential fourth-outfielder type for a while, and if you can get past a couple of herp-derp plays in the early going for him, he does look the part of a big leaguer just lacking some polish to his game.  It may not be the case that the team will have to hang with these kids for too long, provided injuries to Brett Lawrie and Colby Rasmus are as mild as has been reported and Jose Bautista progresses a little better in his recovery.  There remains merit, though, in giving these prospects a taste of the big-leagues to see how they respond.  With the Rays, Yankees, White Sox, Rangers and Tigers in the immediate offing, if they’re still here, they’ll definitely get a test.

Goodbye, Carnivore...

When the Blue Jays called Travis Snider up in 2008 at the age of 20, it seems as though the future had arrived. At least, that's what we all thought. Or hoped.
 
Throughout the six seasons that I've toiled - yes, toiled - over this blog, there is no player who has occupied its focus of more than Snider. And maybe that was the problem. It was easy to spend too much time heaping our hopes and aspirations for the future of the ballclub onto his broad shoulders, because it just seemed like he should be the next great star, and he would be with the Jays when they finally made their way back to the promised land of pennant races and playoffs. Jays fans were never going to accept less than superstardom from him because he came from what was then a barren minor league system into a big league team that floundered somewhere around the level of "vaguely respectable" for way too long.

Travis Snider might never have been that good, and by virtue of that fact, he'd have a hard time ever being good enough.


Prospect analysis is a relatively new phenomenon among the broader swath of baseball fans, and an increasing number approach these young players with a balanced mix of optimism and skepticism. But Snider's ascent predated this world view, and so you see volumes of tweets and comments that label him as a bust and a washout before he's really ever had the opportunity to prove himself everyday in the majors.

And that's always been my personal bone of contention with how he was treated by the Blue Jays, and by successive managers. In a game that is full of failure, Travis Snider was by alternate turns punished for small failures (by Cito) or protected from failure by John Farrell. Snider would go through a rough stretch in the big leagues as a 22 or 23 year-old, and would be rapidly dispatched to some level of baseball that he'd already conquered.

So in 2010, Aaron Hill would be granted 580 plate appearances as a 28 year-old to post a .665 OPS,  but 22 year-old Snider would be dispatched at the first sign of trouble, and permitted to stick for just half of the season despite putting up a .767 OPS.

It just doesn't add up to me. It feels weird. Having spent countless hours and having typed my fingers to the bone to defend the actions of the organization, their treatment of this one player remains such a profound mystery to me that I'm not sure that I'll ever look upon Alex Anthopoulos or John Farrell quite the same way. I mean, come on...Eric Thames is your starting left fielder? Really?

Maybe they'll be eventually be proven right, and the new reliever they've brought in might turn his decent fastball/curveball mix into a back of the bullpen arm. Maybe Snider is just a 15 homer, 15 steal outfielder who'll be marginal throughout the rest of his career. But it is profoundly disappointing to see the way that our favourite team dealt with this player who was a delight to watch.

So it's with profoundly mixed emotions that we see him off to greener pastures. I'm looking forward to watching Snider in the midst of a pennant chase, and rooting doubly hard for the Pirates to pull out a National League Central pennant. I'm also optimistic that he can grow and become the Major League star that many of us thought he would.

And as I hold that thought for a moment, I also think of this: A week before Snider's first game, another player made his Blue Jays debut. Through the rest of the season, Snider posted an .803 OPS in 24 games, while his new teammate put up a .648 OPS in 21 games to close out the season. That teammate was José Bautista.

Whatever the case, and however things play out from here...it was fun. The highs and lows, and all the anticipation and frustration. It was all good. I'll always be a Travis Snider fan. He'll always be the Great Big Giant Pasty White Hope to me. 

Tweet Bag - Your Tweeted Questions, My Blogged Answers

It's been a while since I opened up the old satchel of tweeted questions, and for those of you new to these parts, this is what we call a Tweet Bag. It's like a mail bag, only with far less room for people to pontificate and contextualize before getting to their questions. I'm a fan of brevity.

Let's roll the drum of your cards and letters, reach in and see what we find.

First up, the question that so many are thinking, but @J_Smitty90 had the temerity to ask: Realistically, would a trip to the minors help Ricky? Or are his days as an "ace" over? 

Oh, Ricky. Not so fine. Not so fine you blow my mind. Hey Ricky!

It's been a pretty hard slog watching Romero's outings for most of this year, as he's struggled with his command from Opening Day and generally looked a lot more hittable. But would sending him on a vision quest to Las Vegas do him much good at this point? I'd tend to concur with Sportsnet's Jays analyst and dapper dresser Gregg Zaun, who noted yesterday that a trip to Triple-A probably wouldn't give Romero much insight. Pitching to weaker hitters who might be deceived by stuff that isn't getting past big leaguers probably doesn't advance the cause at all.

Without the infinite resources of time and patience, it's hard to figure precisely what's gone wrong with Ricky, but here's something I gleaned while traipsing through his numbers on Brooks Baseball: The big difference that I see between this year and last is the effectiveness of his sinker. (Fangraphs calls this pitch a cutter...I think. But I'll let those nerds slap-fight it out between them.) Last year, Romero's sinker was called a ball 40.57% of the time, while this year, that rate has spiked to 51.87%. It was called a strike 15.9% of the time last year, but slipped to 10.28% this year. Those aren't minor deviations, and none of his other pitches have seen such a significant change in outcomes. 

As for the question about RickRo's status as an "ace", that's a bit more complicated. I think there are probably only about 15-20 "aces" in all of baseball, and although Romero was the number one pitcher in the Jays' rotation in recent years, he's probably a good number three pitcher who would peak as a number two on occasion. That's not to dump on him at all, as you need pitchers of that ilk when you're building a team. But this year is a pretty stark reminder Ricky's probably not a part of that upper echelon of pitchers.


And on that bummer of a note, let's move on to @captainlatte, who asks: Trying to figure out when AA's contract ends (2014?), do u know? If AA was freed, who'd snap him up?

I've scoured the interwebs for literally minutes trying to find the answer to this, and the impression that I have is that the term of AA's contract was never released, and that we'll probably not know when it is coming up for renegotiation. Moreover, we might not even find out if and when he gets it extended.


If Anthopoulos was set free for some reason, it seems likely to me that he'd be snapped up as quickly as he wanted to be. The question would probably come down to where he wanted to go, and it what role. But all this seems rather academic, as I'd expect that he has a lot of latitude in Toronto. He'd really have to mess up the team over successive years to reach a point where they were attempting to can him, and even if you don't like all his moves, it seems unlikely that he'll do significant harm to the franchise necessitating a change. At least, not for the time being.


Next, @RynoMcFluff asks: Who do you want to see called up for a look when the rosters expand? 

At this point, is there anyone left for us to see? If he were healthy, Travis d'Arnaud would obviously be at the head of this list, but with his knee injury, it seems fairly unlikely that he'll be in Toronto this September. He might have a brief cameo appearance, or get invited to come work out and spit seeds in the dugout, but anything more than that would surprise me.

Beyond that, I'd hope that Chad Jenkins and Deck McGuire have a finish to the season that is strong enough to merit a look this September. Their poor seasons at Double-A New Hampshire are perhaps the most concerning developments of 2012, because the diminished expectations now create holes in the big league pitching staff over the next few years. 


I wouldn't mind getting a look at Moises Sierra in the big leagues. The 23 year-old Dominican has done okay in his first taste of Triple-A (.361 OBP, .482 SLG, 17 homers), with the standard caveat about those numbers coming in the PCL, and his numbers have been much better at home in Vegas. Sierra may profile as a good option to take over the fourth outfield spot in 2013, so it might make sense to give him at bats this year to see if he can hit the ball out of the infield on occasion.

Unfortunately, I think that Sierra will be blocked by Eric Thames and Anthony Gose, and might not get much time in the last month of the season.

Next question! @sboulton asks: Why the persistent "Yunel is bad in the clubhouse" meme, when there's been no whisper of that in Toronto? 

I don't want to act as though I've been anywhere within a country mile of the Jays' clubhouse. I've never seen how Yunel acts around his teammates, and how he gets along. But what if we're just gaming out the logic of the question you're asking, let me make the following inference: It's possible that the local guys wouldn't make as big a deal about Yunel's attitude on a day-to-day basis because they need to maintain a certain level of détente with their subjects, whereas the national writers coming in and out would have a bit more latitude to make these observations.

It could also be that some sources around the team feel more comfortable in letting their frustrations slip to the writers from away, because they won't have to deal with daily follow ups from the local beats. Or, it could just be that the occasional drop ins are misreading the dynamics in the room. Your guess is as good as mine.  


Onward! @GrubersMullet asks: You currently have one of the best arms out of the pen in Darren Oliver. Do you trade him or keep him & hope he doesn't retire?

Oliver's really been something else this year, hasn't he? The ideal scenario from the point of view of a fan is that Oliver sticks with the Jays and comes back to be a key part of the bullpen next year as well. (And I don't just say that because I like having someone on the team who is older than I am.)

At this point, I have to imagine that the Jays have had a number of discussions with Oliver to suss out his position on playing next year, and his willingness to take his game elsewhere down the stretch this season. If there is any notion that Oliver might not come back next year, the Jays really need to move him and get something back for him while they still can. He'd be a valuable commodity for a contending team that needed the bullpen help.

Let's wrap it up with some rapid fire answers, shall we?


@mlse (those Pension Plan Puppets scoundrels) asks: If AA were made of spare ribs would you eat him? What, are you suddenly Ryan Dempster? Ripping off Will Ferrell's Harry Caray impression and passing it off as your own joke?


@archizuber asks: What's the deal with airplane food? I don't know, but is there anything cooler than getting a little tin of Pringles on a plane, and it's all pressurized, and it feels like the can is going to explode if you open it? That's pretty cool.

Finally, @wconnaught asks: Any potential Jays trades at the deadline? Yes. I'm sure there are. Josh Johnson would be nice, but his acquisition seems remote for some reason. And don't forget that there are still moves that can and will be made after this initial deadline. I'd expect the Jays to be active in August as well.

That's it for this time. For now, this is your best friend Tao signing off. Until next time, keep your feet on the ground, and keep reaching for the stars!