Sunday, October 28, 2012

Farrell And Everything After

Photo from the wonderful @james_in_to. More of his great stuff here.
I had counted myself among the horde who didn't believe for a second that if and when the Toronto Blue Jays traded their manager, John Farrell, to the Boston Red Sox, they would receive anything more than an above-average prospect in return.  Barring the inclusion of a higher-level player from Toronto's side, I was fairly certain that a major-league player would not be coming back north of the border.

Here we are more than a week later, and things obviously shook out much differently than I had expected they would.  Frankly, I'm pretty happy with how things transpired.  I didn't actively dislike John Farrell as a manager, really, but I also didn't put him on any kind of pedestal either.  For two years, he was just kinda there, inspiring mostly indifference in me, despite my protestations on Twitter against his daily inclusion of Adam Lind as his cleanup hitter or some other passing transgression.

The trade, in which Toronto acquired Mike Aviles in return for their erstwhile skipper, opens up a couple of key questions for GM Alex Anthopoulos and the rest of the organization to address (to go with a pile of others the team will need to address this off-season, but we'll get to those later in the fall and winter).  The answers to those key questions are going to have a material impact on the approaches the team might take in 2013 and beyond -- although those impacts might not be immediately evident.

The first question, obviously, is who will replace Farrell as manager.  Anthopoulos has had one crack at picking a manager and landed, after much careful consideration, on Farrell.  Along with that choice came a particular approach to in-game strategy, clubhouse management, and all the other things a manager can influence.  Now, if the Road to Contention in the AL East were a video game, this represents a chance to at least re-start the current level.  You may have to start again a little further back than you were, but at least you have a sense what's coming at you and what you did wrong last time. Picking another manager now, after an abbreviated stint like Farrell had, gives Anthopoulos an opportunity to re-assess what it is he wants from his manager.

If there really was a disconnect between Farrell and Anthopoulos (I'm not sure there was), or if Anthopoulos has a firmer idea now of what kind of manager he needs than he might have had the first time around (I have to think he does), the GM will now get to pick a manager that he expects will fit his vision, strategy and resources better.  But there's still a huge element of guesswork involved, since it's not until the manager is in the job -- and has a roster to work with -- that results will even start to be evident.

The new manager's approach will become evident not through an introductory news conference, but rather through the dribs and drabs of information that show themselves through the course of a season.  One of those bits of data will be the way the manager utilizes a player like the freshly-arrived Aviles.

Here's a reasonably versatile middle-infield type, with a little bit of pop and a little bit of speed, and a sizable platoon split in which he's a career .344 wOBA in his career against lefties, versus a .297 against righties.

Could Aviles play every day at second base or at shortstop with numbers like those?  Sure, I guess.

Would he make a better strict platoon partner for, say, a Daniel Murphy, who bats from the other side and hits righties better than lefties, and who has been reported to be on the trading block for some time, including this past summer?  Or perhaps as a utility guy, filling in where and when his particular skill set matches best -- like starting against lefties, pinch-hitting against them when they come out of the bullpen, and being an important asset in case of injury?  Absolutely yes.

I'll concede that to use Aviles in such a way would necessitate some other upgrades to the roster in the middle infield, in particular at second base, with everything else remaining equal (that is to say, with Yunel Escobar remaining a Blue Jay or a reasonable facsimile of a starting shortstop taking his place).  That's going to be on the General Manager's shoulders.

In the optimum situation, though, I hope a new manager will be the kind of guy who isn't necessarily glued to an every-day 1 through 9 in the batting order and in the field.  I'm not talking about Joe Maddon's mad scientist routine here, which despite the accolades it gets, can also get in the way of itself.  But given this team's resources, and the talent it has now and can reasonably be expected to add in areas like the middle infield, it wouldn't hurt at all to show a bit more creativity where it's warranted.

Monday, October 22, 2012

Awkward Goodbyes and Uncomfortable Questions

Sometimes, it's hard to wrap your head around the moment when you're fully immersed in it. When you're drowning in the moment, everything seems overwhelmingly historic and meaningful. It takes a certain level of detachment to look off into the horizon when your head is still under the surface, and you're breathing nothing but water. 

Having said that, there's something about this business with the Jays trading their manager to a divisional rival that seems...let's say "transformative". Like it's a big frigging deal. Like it's a moment that we'll reflect upon years from now as a moment that either changed the direction of the franchise, or made clear that there was something flawed in the way the Blue Jays were proceeding with the Eternal Building Plan.

Because really, this whole thing is a mess. This is not the way that it is supposed to play out. And I'll spare you my interpretation over who jumped and whether if they were on the cusp of being pushed, because really, who knows? There's a lot of whispers, and from a distance, whispers really just sound like noise. I won't be so bold as to interpret them quite yet.

***

Brought on board following one of the most exhaustive managerial searches in the history of mankind, John Farrell was supposed to be the leader who marshalled the new-look Blue Jays into their new era of contention. But after maddeningly inscrutable two seasons at helm, Farrell was unable to reasonably earn an extension to his contract. He was also not able to make himself appear indispensable. At least not to the Jays.

I held out a lot of hope for John Farrell, from the time he was hired through until the somewhat surprising news of his departure this weekend. I thought he talked a good game, and at the risk of painting myself as a bit of  a rube, I tend to think that people who talk a good game usually have the mental dexterity to actually manage the game just as well.

Certainly, there were holes in his management of the team. I didn't always care for his lineups, though I thought that by the end of last season, he had become better with that aspect of the game. I also didn't care for the 13-man pitching staff and the lame use of a thin bench, though it is an open questions as to whether if that was his call or the general manager's.

On the positive, I appreciated that his management of the bullpen seemed to progress when he had an adequate supply of arms from which to choose. I also thought that the Jays' use of extreme shifts - taking greater advantage of Brett Lawrie's tremendous athleticism - was a very nice development this year, and one which might have been underappreciated by some of the armchair nitpickers. 

I agree somewhat with notion - the new conventional wisdom, as it were - from the progressive-minded types that states that managers have a modest impact on the performance of their team. But I can't help but wonder: Would the Tampa Bay Rays have traded their manager for a 32 year-old, sub-.700 OPS utility player? For that matter, would the Rays trade their skipper for a 27 year-old with an .800 OPS? Should they?


Maybe that seems like an unfair example, but it certainly makes it hard for me to wrap my head around the notion that a player with value is worth blowing up your entire coaching staff. It's no sure thing that Brian Butterfield and Luis Rivera and Torey Lovullo follow Farrell out of town, but it seems as though that might be the de facto outcome of this transaction, which in turn means a new manager, new coaches, and a lack of continuity in the message the players are hearing from management.

This leadership transition means new processes, and new faces creating new expectations. It's going to mean a new set of coaches feeling out the limits and pressure points on the players who make up the roster. And if any coaches remain - because Dwayne Murphy and Bruce Walton will probably keep their jobs through nuclear winters and the zombie apocalypse - it will mean that they will deal with new directives and expectations as well.

So maybe a salient question leading out of this whole mess - even if it is unanswerable at this point - is whether a new message from a new regime is better at this point than preserving the existing regime to maintain continuity. A new message might not be a bad thing, considering some of the non-injury-related backsliding by some of the younger players this season.


In the end, what Farrell's departure might help to underline is the inherent fragility of the painstaking process of building the Toronto Blue Jays into a perpetual contender. Certainly, many Jays fans still hold Anthopoulos in a positive light, and believe that his approach to building the team has been prudent and wise. But I'd also hazard a guess to say that it's a shrinking number who continue to hold this view.


It probably doesn't matter if he was plucked from the Jays through something that feels like coordinated campaign through back channels that falls just short of "tampering", or if the team simply couldn't rationalize an extension beyond next year and let him go to avoid a lame duck year. That's all academic. We can stick out our pinkies and fill the air with chatter on these points at cocktail parties all winter long.

But ultimately, this feels to a fan - this one, anyway - like another low point in a year that has had far too many of them. It feels like a bit of an insult, even if it's not entirely clear why, and who's responsible. It feels like another step backwards. 

The other side of this debacle is that the Jays will fill out the coaching staff in the coming weeks, and that will provide another opportunity for some blind optimism. We'll meet a new skipper, and project some hopes and dreams on him. We'll visualize that manager having champagne poured over his head, and celebrating some sort of meaningful victory. Just as we did with John Farrell, two short years ago.

And when it comes to taking responsibility for hiring a manager that is ultimately viewed to be disposable within two seasons: That's on AA. Farrell was his call, and it will be incumbent on him to
help take this crisis and turn it into an opportunity.

Friday, October 19, 2012

The Long-Delayed Exit Interview - Tao and Org Guy Nurse Their Wounds



Tao: So, Org Guy. Come in, sit down, relax. And you might want to close the door behind you. Welcome to the season exit interview. 

(Moves a box of tissues to the front of the desk.)


Shall I pour you a beer? Scotch? Skinny Girl brand Margarita Mixer Spritzer? I've got a little bourbon going myself. I've lost count of how many I've had too. So this might get ugly.

But listen, we're not here to talk about your performance this year. You were great, and carried the blog when you could find it in yourself to ignore work and family responsibilities long enough to post something. But I appreciate that you don't post more often, because some people don't realize that you're the one writing all the good stuff around here these days. I'm happy to take credit for you.

But really, man. This season...

(Takes sip of bourbon. Gazes into the distance. Eyes well up, ever-so-slighty.)

It wasn't what we were expecting, was it?

Org Guy: Um... I suppose I could have a drink. (Looks at watch. It's before 10 in the morning.) You've been watching Mad Men again, haven't you?

Look, I appreciate that you're able to look past the irregularity in my posting.  Frankly, it was sometimes hard to get the motivation up to even think about what was going on with the Jays for large chunks of the summer, let alone to write about them.  But now that the smouldering remains of the season can be safely seen through the rear view mirror, just watch me get prolific.

It's not as though there weren't SOME positives, though, right?  I mean, Edwin Encarnacion? 
 Brandon Morrow, when he wasn't hurt? (Looks around the room trying to think of another positive.)  And... uh... hey, is that a new desk lamp?  Nice.

Tao: Oh, the desk lamp...lemme tell you, the lamps took a beating this year. Every time the Jays lost a player to some goofball injury or the other, I hurled one of these babies at the wall. It got so that I just went ahead and ordered in bulk, though I'm nearly out at this point.

But that's really the thing of it, isn't it? Picking up broken pieces all year long. I mean, I can't even tell you if I like this lamp, because I won't let myself get attached to it. It's too fragile.

But after everything, can we glean much of anything from the past 162 games? With all of the gaps in the lineup and rotation through the second half of the season, is there anything of meaning that we can hang our jocks on, aside from: "You can never have too much pitching"?

Org Guy: Considering how far down the depth chart the organization had to dip in order to simply put a passable arm on the mound on some nights, "You can never have too much pitching" is a bit of an understatement.  It remains absurd to think that the team should need (or could possibly accommodate) four or five major-league quality starting pitchers at the AAA level, but that's what would have been required to get through the injury plague that beset them in 2012.  Now, that's admitting that there was a gamble made on at least two younger pitchers -- Drew Hutchison and Henderson Alvarez -- staying healthy and performing at a near average level all year.  Which, you know, they didn't.  It seems pretty clear to me that Alex Anthopoulos intends to address this in the off-season.  I read and listen to what he says pretty closely, and through his entire tenure as GM, I don't think he's ever verbally left himself less wiggle room than he has with regard to adding starting pitching before 2013.

But were other questions answered as definitively? Beyond pitching, when you look right up the middle of the diamond, does the team know what it has at catcher, middle infield, centerfield?  And if they do know, do they like it at all for the medium or longer term?

Tao: Here's the thing about some of those other questions: I think we knew from the outset of the season that they were questions that we were kicking down the road by a year. If you thought that Kelly Johnson or Rajai Davis or Omar Vizquel were much more than seat fillers, you were probably hoping for more than they could deliver.

And that's not a bad thing. It doesn't hurt to go into a season with three or four guys on your active roster who are just there to fill in for the season, but who add depth and avoid the necessity of going into your farm system too early. Sure, this blog has had its fun with the "Menchersons" of the past few years, but even good teams - playoff teams! - have their share of scrubs to fill in on the margins. 

I suppose, though, that we’re all a bit disappointed with Yunel Escobar’s performance – wardrobe malfunctions, notwithstanding – and that a lot of us held out hope that Colby Rasmus was something more than slightly above average. And if those guys remain with the team through the winter, they probably end up at the top of the heap of questions that we’ll be posing through next season.

As for the pitching, I hear all the rational arguments and the well-founded excuses. Guys being pushed into the deep end and such. But then I think of the Jays signing Dustin McGowan to a multi-year deal, and I just can't get away from the sense that they were either off course or off their rocker this spring.

You know I’m not a spend to contend guy, but there better be some sort of arm that shows up in Dunedin this February, ready to throw 200 innings while not crushing my will to live. 

Org Guy: It's hard to separate the "here and now" with the "what's to come", though, which might be one of the reasons why fans of this team find themselves in such a funk.  Our freshest memories of 2012 are two months without Jose Bautista and a mason jar full of replaced elbow ligaments.  It's easy to lose sight of the fact that the roster that exists now is not the one that's going to open the 2013 season.  Just how different it will be remains to be seen, but some things will change.

If there's something about which to be optimistic, I'd like to think it's the fact that the AL East looks a bit more beatable than it used to.  I flat-out refuse to believe Baltimore is actually any good, because it would be damaging to my soul to do otherwise.  The Yankees will win a lot of games next year because Yankees gonna Yankee.  Tampa Bay had a strong finish to the year, and should continue to make noise. Who knows what path Boston will take, as a team that actively made itself worse this year?  The point is, even this stain of a season hasn't necessarily put them so far behind the pack that they can't catch up.  Maybe I'm being unrealistic, but that's what the off-season is for.

Tao: Let's wrap it up, because we all have a bus to catch, and these banker's boxes aren't going to fill themselves. 

It would be nice to think that the AL East was softening. Maybe 2013 is a year where 92 wins gets you the pennant, although the Yankees can stink and seemingly still manage more than 90 wins each season. I think the Rays will continue to play above their heads, because I can't imagine them not doing so at this point. The Orioles will be good, but I don't see them replicating that insane run of good luck. And the Red Sox? I honestly think there's a scenario where they win the division next year. And one where they finish last as well.

All that said, let's go out on the positives: Last year was a mess, but there were moments, and they augur well for next year. There was a beautiful, sparkling year from Edwin Encarnacion. José Bautista and Brandon Morrow were great when they were healthy. Casey Janssen was twitchy and really good at the back of the bullpen. Steve Delabar and Aaron Loup were kinda cool stories. The bullpen version of Brett Cecil is an intriguing animal, and there's just enough promise in Adeiny Hechavarria to make me think that he could be a valuable number nine hitter.

I see reasons for optimism. I think there are plenty of them. But then I'm the optimistic type.

(Swivels around in chair, realizing that Org Guy left the room.)

Hello? Hellllooo?

Saturday, October 13, 2012

The Org Guy's Paternity Replacement Tweet Bag

It's a Tweet Diaper Bag! Get it?
Friends, our blogging pal the Tao is now a proud papa.  Now, those of us who have been through those whirlwind first few weeks of parenthood will likely sympathize with his plight.  I wasn't yet a blogger when either of the Org Kids came along, but if I were, my posts would have been few and far between (Ed: so what's changed?), lost in a fog of sleepless nights and laundry.  In a spirit of solidarity and goodwill while Tao tends to his growing brood, I volunteered to pinch hit for a Tweet Bag, answering your baseball and non-baseball related questions.  Without further ado:

@CFoster92 asks:
Sometimes it's easy to forget how young most major league baseball players are.  I know for a certifiable fact that I was nowhere close to being ready to be a dad until I was over the age of thirty.  Your decline years as a player happen to coincide with what I'd consider to be the best years to start a family.  It's a bit on the nose, I realize, but my "best dad" vote would probably have to be Darren Oliver.  Calm, serene wisdom dispensed in single-inning sized chunks.  If he were my dad, he'd probably just have to snap his fingers and I'd fix him a scotch, and be damn glad for the opportunity.

As for the worst dad, I feel like I'm being a bit unfair to some of the really young guys by throwing them into the mix.  Most of the under-30 set would probably be really cool to have as uncles.  But my "worst dad" crown goes to Mike McCoy, because that guy's on the road more than Willy Loman.  "You were NEVER there for me!"

@adamtherealtor asks:
We had plenty of Tweet Bag questions about potential 2013 acquisitions.  Me, I have an unnatural desire, growing stronger every day, for the Jays to sign Jeff Keppinger to play second base next year, or at least fill out a utility role as Tao discussed a couple weeks ago.  It doesn't pain me to say it now as much as it might have in, say, July, but Adeiny Hechavarria does still seem to have the inside track right now for second base.  The Keppinger and  Hechavarria scenarios are more a reflection of the weak free agent class at the position than anything else, which is why I think if they look outside the organization for second base, they'll go the trade route.

And if you allow yourself to dream big for just a minute, there are some intriguing possibilities out there.  Why, the Philadelphia Phillies traded almost all the rest of their big-money guys as their season circled the drain, so surely they could be coaxed into moving Chase Utley north of the border, right?  Two seasons left on the contract at $15 million per, at which point he'll be entering his age 35 season. I could get behind taking that off Ruben Amaro's hands (although Utley does have a limited no-trade clause and I think is closing in on 10 and 5 rights, thanks to the indispensable Cot's Baseball Contracts).  I'm not saying it would be easy.  But it would be fun if Alex Anthopoulos were to shoot for the stars, and hopefully hit the moon.  They certainly have the prospects in the system to make some big deals, if they decide that's the direction they want to take.

Speaking of which, @sporkless asks:
And this is where things get trickier.  Just because you CAN do something, doesn't mean you SHOULD do it.  I like the idea of trading prospects now to improve for 2013 -- I just don't think the idea of going "all in" for one season should override the need to maintain a system-wide strength for years to come (a point I've made in the past), because there are never any guarantees it will work, and the ensuing years can be pretty painful if it doesn't.  So how many prospects is too many prospects?

Or, as @JackCekovic and @scottrobinson7 ask:
I think one or two of the the "Lansing Three" -- Noah Syndergaard, Aaron Sanchez and Justin Nicolino -- will be in the mix for deals this off-season.  I wouldn't be surprised to see at least one of them traded away, in particular if packaged in return for a starting pitcher that can slot is as a #2 or #3 type.  There's been some indication already that Anthopoulos is willing to part with prospects and understands the perilous attrition rate for even the best prospect talent out there.  And as much as the Lansing Three are excellent prospects, the idea that there are three Roy Halladays lurking within the organization at low-A ball is just as absurd as it sounds.  There's a chance -- a remote one -- that those kids will all turn out as above-average starting pitchers in the major leagues, but the more likely scenario is that one or none of them does.  "They're not all going to play up here."

Now, I did indicate that I was an expert in lawn care, as well as the works of Steve Earle, when soliciting questions for this little segment.  I may have been overstating things with respect to lawn care.  Nevertheless, to answer the question above, and that of @whatadewitt:
The most useful things I've learned about actually getting your grass to look good are:  aerate (both in the spring and the fall); fertilize (both in the spring and fall); seed (both in the spring and fall -- don't bother in the middle of the summer because it's too hot for the seed to properly germinate and take root); and water the hell out of it all summer long.  Get a good fall fertilizer now, and spread it after you've given one good last raking for the fall and aerated it.  It's probably too late now to try to seed anything for fall.  But both in the spring and fall, if you have bare spots or things are just a bit thin, lay down a thin covering of topsoil and peat moss mixture, spread some quality grass seed on it and keep it nice and moist for a good couple weeks.  As long as the temperature is somewhere between about 15 and 25 Celsius, this is a good time to thicken things up.

Onward!  @_LeftField asks:
and @NicholasDeRosa asks:
These questions refer to my encyclopedic knowledge of the Steve Earle catalogue.  To the first, of those three, my pick is Guitar Town.  It's a fine album that holds up incredibly well despite being more than 25 years old, but my pick here is a little sentimental.  This was the first CD I ever purchased, and I did so before I even had a CD player.  I bought a CD player just so I could listen to Guitar Town.  Earle's music has progressed in a dozen different directions since then.  I like the question about Telephone Road because it references probably my favourite album of all his standard "Steve Earle & the Dukes" efforts -- El Corazon.  Telephone Road is a terrific, very underrated song, and it's not even close to the best one on the album.  I could listen to that album every day and not get tired of it.  Fort Worth Blues will haunt your dreams.

Alright, I know I got a lot more questions than these, and I wish I had time to get to more, but this is getting awfully long already and a lot of it isn't even about baseball.  Just trying to ease you into the off-season, I guess.  Enjoy the playoff baseball, everyone, because once it's gone, baby, it's gone.

Tuesday, October 2, 2012

Flexible Like Yan Gomes...Only Better

Photo courtesy @james_in_to.
One of the fun things about being a sports fan these days is that moment when you start to lose your perspective in the midst of a visceral reaction to a play on the field. John McDonald makes a stunning play in the field? MAKE HIM A JAY FOR LIFE! Jesse Carlson strikes out the side with the bases loaded? FUTURE CLOSER!

Last night, we had a similar moment soon after Yan Gomes hit a game tying homer in the ninth. Soon thereafter, my Twitter feed - spurred by Gregg Zaun's comments - looked something like: GOMES IS THE MOST VALUABLE PLAYER IN BLUE JAYS HISTORY, WITH THE POP AND THE EIGHT POSITIONS HE PLAYS! KEY TO 2013 PLAYOFFS!

In the particular case of Yan Gomes, the reaction was clearly over the top, though I applaud those who were willing to get that enthusiastic in the late innings of game 160 in this cruddy season. But taking a clear-eyed view of Gomes, you have to recognize that he is really a backup catcher, and not much more.

Sure, credit is due to the Brazilian rookie for picking up the slack at third and first on occasion, and for his 8.2 innings of work in an emergency role in left field. (Where he has yet to field a single ball, just so you know.) But it's important to remember that the catching position for 2013 is one of the few where the Jays have more options than roster spots at this point.

With J.P. Arencibia, Travis d'Arnaud and Jeff Mathis all looking for opportunities to squat behind the dish, there would seem to be plenty of catching resources. At the same time, the Jays shouldn't be hard up when it comes to backups at first and third, nor are those defensive positions that should worry you as much as the middle infield and outfield.

But this is not to wholly dismiss the notion that was being floated. There is a lot of validity to the notion that the Jays should look to develop greater flexibility on their roster for next season. Take, for example, the Tampa Bay Rays. (I'll pause now for you to roll your eyes. Yes, the Rays again.)

The thing that I've come to admire greatly about Joe Maddon's management of the team is that there are few if any sacred cows. Players - some really good players - get shifted around the diamond and up and down the lineup according to the greatest need of the day. Ben Zobrist (140 OPS+) has played right field, short stop and second base and hit everywhere from first through sixth in the batting order. Jeff Keppinger (129 OPS+) has played first, second, third and DH and hit in every spot but leadoff.

And it goes on. Matt Joyce plays both left and right. Ryan Roberts shifts between second and third. Desmond Jennings flips around the lineup. Elliot Johnson and Sean Rodriguez fill in wherever they're needed. Even Evan Longoria's spot in the lineup isn't necessarily chiselled in granite, as he's occasionally batted third instead of cleanup when the situation dictated.

Unfortunately, the Jays' on-field management tends to lean towards the ideal that predictability is better for the players' psyche, and that players need to play very poorly to remove themselves from their assigned positions.

It's true that some experimentation has been undertaken this year. The Jays experimented with Edwin Encarnacion in left, and Brett Lawrie was moved to the leadoff spot. But if the Jays are going to maximize the output that they can get from their roster, they shouldn't be afraid to move players in such a way as to get the most out of their personel.

The best place to start such an approach might be José Bautista. Sure, he's stated his preference towards playing the outfield. But if Brett Lawrie were to launch himself into another injury next year, wouldn't it make more sense to slide Bautista to third if the next best offensive option in the minors is an outfielder? Wouldn't that be a good example for the Jays' putative leader to set for his teammates?

Beyond that admittedly narrow example, there will be a number of roster spots to be filled for next season, and the Jays should balance flexibility with production when identifying bench players who might end up in the lineup for extended periods.

For instance, players like Adam Lind and David Cooper provide offense that is insufficient at first base, and they don't have the ability to fill in elsewhere around the diamond. At the same time, bench players like Gomes, Omar Vizquel and Mike McCoy fill in defensively at a number of positions, but provided offensive contributions that were worse than negligible.

On the other hand, players like Keppinger, Trevor Plouffe, Martin Prado, or Daniel Murphy might not be transcendent superstars, but their ability to adapt to different roles and positions while maintaining a reasonable level of offensive performance make them ideal additions to their teams. Their value extends beyond their numbers, because they help to keep lesser players on the bench or in the minors.

Ultimately, they take playing time away from players like Yan Gomes. Which is a direction this team needs to take in the coming years.

Thursday, September 27, 2012

Now There's a Tragic Waste of Brutal Youth - A Reaction to the Snider Saga

Photo courtesy @james_in_to.

It's rare that we get a thoughtfully candid retelling of how a player's relationship to a franchise soured, and rarer still that we get one so soon after the player left. Which is why many of us have spent recent days pouring over minute details in Shi Davidi's three-part story on Travis Snider's departure, and the events that led to it.

I can understand why many fans want to move on, and don't care to rehash the Travis Snider saga any further. For some, Snider's performance here in Toronto doesn't nearly warrant all of the angst that has been displayed by his fans. For others, retracing the steps that led to his exit seems to be more misery than a stressed-out, heartbroken Jays fan can take at this point.

And yet, the curiosity around what really happened to the Jays' former number one prospect is almost impossible to resist. For those of us who have spent the last five years agonizing over Snider,  his progress - or lack thereof - has been a source of frustration and bewilderment. Getting a bit more "dirt" on what many of us have suspected was a strained relationship at the best of times is irresistible.

But we shouldn't mistake the story as just a salacious rehash. What happened with Travis Snider matters going forward, because many of the key figures in this from the Blue Jays' side of the story - Alex Anthopoulos, John Farrell, Paul Beeston - are still actively setting the course for the future of the franchise. Their approach to Snider's development should be scrutinized, as should their self-evaluation for how they believe they did. The story paints a picture of a development plan that was improvised at best, and careless at worst. But for the most part, the Jays brain trust remains mostly unapologetic about their handling of Snider.

This is obviously subjective, but to my reading, no one comes off less sympathetic in the story than Cito Gaston. And while it might seem as though that shouldn't matter, it bothers me that he will continue to have a voice in the Blue Jays' front office so long as Beeston remains ensconced as the team's president. This is the man who ran John Olerud out of town for not being more of a pull hitter; who benched Shawn Green in favour of Ruben Sierra; and ultimately, who helped to diminish the value of Travis Snider.

But he's got his World Series rings, so I guess I should just shut my mouth and smile and love him. I'm sure that's what he'd say.

As a side note, both Cito Gaston and Gene Tenace were 25 years old by the time they reached 500 at bats in the big leagues. Maybe they looked upon Snider as a kid who needed to toughen up and listen up, but they can't even remotely relate to what he was going through in his initial stint with the team. When they were 20 years old, they were farting around the Carolinas or the Florida State League, playing low-A ball and failing miserably. Maybe they could have cut the kid some slack rather than looking upon him as an incomplete player absent their personal imprint.


In a way, it seems as though all involved started to forget soon after his initial call-up that Snider should have been regarded as a valued asset. Back in 2008, you could have made Snider the key piece in a major trade for a star veteran player, but by the time 2012 rolled around, he could only fetch a bullpen arm.

For all of the talk around asset management around the Blue Jays in recent years, they certainly seemed careless with this one. Repeatedly, the Jays took steps to diminish his value with other teams in the league. Whether if it was the ham-handed lefty-lefty platoon in which they placed him with Fred Lewis, or choosing Eric Thames over him this year, the team took decisions that continually eroded his reputation, and lowered him to the level of a replacement-level player.

It doesn't seem as though the coaching staff or front office ever got a decent read of his mental makeup. It could be that they figured it wasn't a concern because he was regarded as "mature" and a "good make up" player from his draft year forward. Or maybe they just didn't care, and figured that he was a man and needed to toughen up. Whatever the case, few responsible for overseeing his development with the team seem prepared to take responsibility for what might have gone wrong.

(And the nagging voice at the back of my head wonders: Are they making the same mistakes with Anthony Gose? Or even Brett Lawrie?)

If there is anyone assuming blame throughout the three-part series, it is Snider. He recognizes that he was perhaps overly-sensitive and too easily affected by outside voices. Moreover, he criticizes his own contributions to the long series of crossed wires between himself and the team. He calls himself "proud" and "hard-headed", and fesses up to the anger and disillusionment that he allowed to overtake his moods and affect his play.

And before you scoff or offer up tough love remedies: He's a kid. Remember that, above all. Snider's a smart kid in his early twenties, and he worries way too much about himself. He's struggling to figure out who the hell he is. He's immature, but he's aware of it. He has trouble with authority and hasn't quite figured out how to master his emotions. Sometimes, he beats himself up because he wishes he could be better, and sometimes, he looks to rationalize his behaviour.

Can any of us say that we were much different at his age?

I've believed for several years that the worst thing the Blue Jays did to Travis Snider was to not allow him the latitude to fail. For a young player who had dominated virtually every level of amateur and affiliated ball in which he played, the shock of finding yourself unable to keep up with the best players in the world can be disconcerting. There were hints throughout the past four seasons that Snider might be struggling with his emotions, and letting the negative thoughts get the better of him, though it is surprising to see the extent to which Snider is willing to reveal his neuroses in this piece.

The question I think a lot of us our left with after reading the piece is: "Why would he come out now and say this?" It seems as though there's not a lot of good that can come from publicly airing out your grievances with a former employer.

I suspect that there's something therapeutic for Snider in unloading the past like this. He seems like a thoughtful player, and someone who spends a lot of time - probably too much time - in his own head. On subsequent readings of the full three-part saga, I felt as though Snider was taking on much more blame for his situation than he was doling out towards others. The process of talking through the past few years wasn't an angry one focused on slamming those who had done him wrong. It's a level of self-analysis that isn't often shared by athletes.

It strikes me that the best thing that Travis Snider could have done for himself was to forego pro ball in favour of college. There are aspects of his personal growth he could have dealt with and worked out while on campus, and it strikes me that spending some contemplative time in a classroom here or there would have helped him tremendously, and prepared him mentally to move into what passes for the "grown up world" of Major League Baseball.

Ultimately, Travis Snider is going to be judged by his output on the field, and as of yet, he hasn't nearly reached his promise. Watching him over the years, it always seemed to me that he had the physical skills to play the game at the top level. If he can stay healthy and keep his head together for an extended period of time, he might just be a really good ballplayer yet.

Whenever, wherever or if ever that happens, I'll continue to root for his success.

Sunday, September 23, 2012

Angst Now, or Angst Later?



The last time I blogged hereabouts, I was railing against the dying of the light, refusing to go gentle into that good night, swearing I would enjoy the last few weeks of the Blue Jays' disastrous 2012 season.  It's been a challenge, friends.

Since then, out of thirteen games, they've won... [counts]... TWO?  Two goddamn wins?  Yes, that's apparently accurate.  I've tried to focus on the positive -- the settling in of Adeiny Hechavarria, the emerging adequacy of Aaron Loup, I'm sure there are one or two others -- but losing sucks.  The fight to finish fourth in the division ahead of the equally discombobulated Boston Red Sox has been as dreary an endeavour as you might expect.

I think it's jealousy that I'm feeling, actually.  I've taken to cursing the improbable Orioles every time they pull another extra-inning win out of their hindquarters, because I refuse to believe the talent they've assembled there is better than what Toronto has on a position by position basis, yet there they are, challenging for the division lead in late September.  We haven't seen that for two decades as Jays fans, and to see another long-suffering AL East franchise enjoy such a stretch now makes me envious.

On the plus side, though, this ugliness has probably provided me with a certain amount of objectivity I didn't have before about some players on whom decisions will need to be made in the off-season.  As a fan, I want them all to succeed, and even when they don't, I often look past their flaws or assume they can be easily rectified with some off-season coaching, adjustments, and presumably pixie dust.  But this season's struggles have led me to question whether I'd be prepared to see even some of my favourite players be moved in off-season deals if it meant an upgrade.

I think it's healthy to begin to re-evaluate which players are untouchable when it comes time to address the needs that Alex Anthopoulos has candidly identified.  Last off-season, I was singing Yunel Escobar's praises as a long-term solution at shortstop.  Now, given his dismal offensive season, to say nothing of his other issues, I wouldn't hesitate to include him in a trade (even if that's admittedly selling low on an asset).  But the Escobar situation is pretty much self-evident by now.  Who else on the roster is untouchable now -- or more to the point, who would you have considered a longshot to be traded six months ago that now might be more realistically on the block?  Does Colby Rasmus still get the benefit of the doubt after what we've seen apart from one strong month?  Is next year's 23-year-old version of Brett Lawrie more valuable as a trade chip than he will be over the long term as the Blue Jays' every day third baseman?

I expect the Jays' marketing department and/or the Mounties to show up at my door at any moment for daring to suggest that the Blue Jays could trade Brett Lawrie.  And I'm not even saying they should.  Maybe it's just this bleak, brutal September that has me thinking things are worse than they are, and players that were once seen as cornerstones could now be trade bait.  Thankfully there are people who actually get paid to think about baseball making these decisions on a more informed basis than me.

But I do believe there are some surprises in store this off-season with respect to what the team will have to give up to get those much-needed upgrades.  Some prospect-porn types on whom we've been dreaming might end up on some other team's Eastern League affiliate.  And yes, even some big-league players to whom we've become attached will change uniforms too.  The last couple of off-seasons have been filled with one kind of angst:  the kind that comes from the team perceived to be doing little or nothing to improve.  If Anthopoulos starts dealing, we might be faced with a whole different kind of angst this time around.

Monday, September 17, 2012

The Yunel Escobar Eye Black Thing...and Why It Matters

As has been well-documented, this photo was taken by @james_in_to.
This is some next-level numbskullery.

Yunel Escobar spent nine innings in the playing area of the Rogers Centre on Saturday with something stupidly offensive written on his face. In an area where literally thousands of cameras would be pointed in his direction to document the words scrawled on his eye black patches.

What "Tu ere maricon" actually means is a subject of some hair-splitting at this point, but most translations point to it being a slur against gay men. At best, it might mean "you are a sissy" or "you are an effeminate coward".

It's entirely possible that this would have slipped by with little notice, except that a dedicated fan of the Blue Jays who often takes pictures from his vantage point behind the dugout noticed those callous words. When he realized what the words meant  - and he went to pains to find out - he was rightfully upset by them. But he was conflicted as to whether if he should even publish the picture, in spite of the fact that he found it offensive and unacceptable. He felt some loyalty towards the team, and also some loyalty towards the player. As a season ticket holder, he sees them at most games, and some of them smile and nod and wave in his direction, recognizing him as a die-hard fan.

But ultimately, he couldn't let it lie. Nor should he have.

There are those who want to slough off this story as much ado about nothing. They say that Anglophones, as outsiders to the culture and language, can't accurately understand the context, meaning or nuance of the term, or how commonly it is used within certain Spanish-speaking cultures. As someone who is bilingual, I find that argument a tad convenient and unconvincing.

Still others might see it as a "boys will be boys" indiscretion. These are the sort of epithets that are still common within the realm of locker room chatter, and Escobar was likely just horsing around. It's entirely likely that the message had less to do with hate than with lunkheaded nitwittery.

There's also still some elements of this story that need to be sorted out, including who actually wrote those words and how they ended up on Escobar's face. Moreover, who else - teammates, coaches, management - noticed this and when did they know?

Absent that information, I'll pass over what I think should be done to remedy the situation. But let me say why I think this matters.

Don't mistake me for Helen Lovejoy, the preacher's wife from the Simpsons when I ask that you think of the children. I feel embarrassed even going there. But as young boys begin the transition towards being young men, they pick up on cues for what is appropriate from a lot of really dumb places. From TV, from the movies, and when it comes to notions of "manhood", especially from sports.

When I think about where my attitudes about homosexuality were first formed, I immediately flash back to Eddie Murphy's wildy over-the-top interpretations of gay men in his stand up act or in Beverly Hills Cop. Or the Jack Tripper character in Three's Company. It's ridiculous, I know. But for most of my adolescence, an affected lisp and an exaggerated hand on the hip constituted high comedy. And it reinforced the "differentness" of homosexuals to a point which almost completely obscured their humanity.

Even within the past year, I tweeted out something in which the punchline was, more or less, "like a girl." I'm lucky to have a multitude of smart female followers who were quick to point out that while I might have found the quip to be funny, they found it hurtful.

And when it comes to Yunel Escobar, how many Blue Jays fans took the consternation shown towards him in Atlanta as some symbol of what a bunch of backwoods, uncivilized yahoos the fans, broadcasters and members of the Braves were? I'll cop to having made that sort comment. Sometimes, you forget how deeply rooted some of this stuff becomes.

And maybe that's the point. Sports at all levels have allowed this casual homophobia to take root and and become the norm. How many times have you heard hockey fans refer to the Canucks' Swedish twins as the "Sedin Sisters"? How many times have you heard an athlete taunt someone with such a slur, or heard something just as offensive from a fellow patron in the stands? Questioning an opponent's manhood, insinuating that his level of courage is not up to snuff because he's either female or gay are de rigeur.

What shouldn't be lost in this is the amount of character demonstrated by the photographer. He saw something. He saw it was wrong and he said something. It might not have been what was most advantageous to the team or the player for which he roots with a passion that few can match. But for James, there was something bigger at stake. There aren't many of us who would have seen that bigger picture. There aren't many of us who would have spoken up. And this is how these things perpetuate themselves.

Now, as we wait for the official response, one can only hope that the Blue Jays take the opportunity to demonstrate their character in the face of these events and show their willingness to help contribute to the change that can make for a more compassionate and tolerant world. They owe their fans that much.

They certainly owe James that much.

The Mondays: Various and Sundry Items from the Weekend

Photo courtesy @james_in_to. You should follow that dude.
At this point in the year, it's hard to look at a series between a couple of also-rans to pick out the marginally interesting bits of something-or-other that stand out as being meaningful. Give me a second, and let me squint real hard...

Good Morrow: I spoiled myself (and my brother and his lovely companion) and got nice seats behind the plate for Brandon Morrow's start yesterday, in part because I wanted to get a good look at his location and movement. (Also, I thought I was joining a friend in that section, but it turns out he has trouble discerning the difference between 128 and 120. Bully for me, though. It worked out well.)

Morrow ended up with an overstuffed pitch count early on in the game, in part thanks to a few singles and the heart-stopping adventure that is Moises Sierra's defense in right. But I also found that he was spending too much time down and away from Red Sox hitters, trying to coax swings from them on breaking pitches. But as the game wore on and Morrow needed to get more economical in the fourth, fifth and sixth innings, it seemed to me that Morrow was working inside with his fastball more often, eliciting weak swings on hard stuff. It was pretty to watch.

To say that a player has "ace stuff" is a bit of an empty statement at this point, because so many pitchers do. What distinguishes players who assume that role is how they use what they've got. Beyond the quality and velocity of Morrow's pitches, he shows an ability to bear down in tight situations, select the right pitch and to hit his spots when he needs to.

My biggest concern with Morrow going forward - and what prevents me from calling him a bona fide "ace" - is his ability to stay healthy throughout the entire season. I certainly recognize that this year's injury wasn't an elbow or shoulder issue, so maybe there is solace to be taken from that fact. But Morrow's health is not a concern that I consider separately from the economy of his outings, because he needs to have some easier innings if he's going to make it through more than 200 of them in the coming seasons.

Hech Variations:  It was a treat on Sunday afternoon to get a good look at Adeiny Hechavarria, both at the plate and in the field at his natural position. Seeing him smack a tater late in a tight game was just the gravy on top of the sundae.

After his early big league struggles, Hechavarria has posted a .725 OPS (.294 OBP, .431 SLG) in his last 22 games, and he looks increasingly comfortable at the plate. His swings are more aggressive and less defensive lately, making the notion of him as an everyday player next season seem less remote.

(If the low-.700's OPS scares you, it's worth noting that in 2011, the average output for an MLB shortstop was a .317 OBP and a .380 SLG, while second base was .320/.389. There's a lot of failure that you have to bear at those premium up-the-middle positions.)

There's a pretty interesting argument that we could have as to whether if Hechavarria needs to play shortstop for the Jays to get full value from him next year. It looks as though his glove will be among the elite at the position, and shifting that over to second base might squander some of his best attributes.

This isn't an attempt to rush Yunel Escobar out the door, as I don't think that he's as bad as he's looked at times this year. But the Yunel-or-Adeiny discussion has gone from vague chatter over the past few years to a fairly substantial question for 2013 and beyond.

All This and More...: If you missed the Blue Jays Talk post-game show yesterday, I snuck into the radio broadcast booth and chatted with Mike Wilner yesterday afternoon. If you want to hear us talk about Adeiny/Yunel, ponder minor league affiliates, swoon over Shin-Soo Choo, or other sundry items that came up, check out the audio at the bottom of Mike's post-game blogpost yesterday.

Monday, September 10, 2012

There Will Be Hard Times: Vague Thoughts on 2012, 1995, Gose and Batting Coaches

Photo courtesy @james_in_to. He's swell, and has lots of awesome Jays pics here.
I won't bore you with a rehashing the past two months of Blue Jays baseball, which has rushed past us in a furious blur of crazy injuries and depleted lineups and...well...you were there. You get it. And if you were here right now, we'd hug it out, with a couple of additional back slaps and an extra squeeze, just to let you know we're there with you.

Then again, we haven't really had much to offer lately on the blog, which is attributable in part to real life getting a lot more hectic than I'd anticipated. With limited stores of strength and intestinal fortitude remaining, the prospect of tossing out a blog post that would certainly result in my being smeared as a puppet, Kool-Aid drinker, apologist or stooge seemed like a waste of my time and energy.

I try to take all of this with a sense of humour, but I don't always succeed. I've found my own mood about the Jays to be somewhat less than generous lately, which leads to some bile spillage on occasion. But I'm always a bit sad when I tweet out something sardonic on the state of the team, and see that my comment gets gleefully magnified by others. I guess some people can take it in good fun, and others just want to smear their anger over the state of the team across everything. Maybe we all just need to chill a bit.

Before getting on with the business of talking baseball, let me add one thing that I intend as a positive, but will likely sound negative on its surface: Things can always get worse. At some point, the Jays' fortunes will undoubtedly be worse than this. One thing you can rely on in life is that if you get through the bad times, there will be more on the way. You suffer, and you persevere. You take care of the things that are under your control and you don't get upset over the things that are beyond you. That's life.

What's Worse Than This?
If you were to construct a full roster of the greatest Blue Jays of all time, you'd likely find Devon White, Robbie Alomar, Paul Molitor, Joe Carter, John Olerud, Shawn Green, Carlos Delgado, Juan Guzman and Pat Hentgen all in the mix for that team. You might even be able to squeeze David Cone or Al Leiter into the mix, based on the high points of their tenure with the Jays.

And yet, a team with ALL of those aforementioned players went 56-88 in 1995, finishing dead last in the AL East and looking miserable doing it.

The majority of those players had just contributed to championship teams, and most of them would go on to be productive members of either the Blue Jays or other teams in the ensuing decade. So the point here, as much as there is one, is to point out that sometimes good teams have terrible seasons. Sometimes, teams play far above the level of their talent - Hello Baltymore! - and some teams play so far below it that it's hard to imagine how things got so bad.

The 1996 Blue Jays had a lesser roster than the year before, with Alomar, White, Molitor, Cone and Leiter out, replaced by Tomas Perez, Otis Nixon, Jacob Brumfield, Erik Hanson and Marty Janzen. And yet, the latter and lesser squad won 18 more games. They say you can't predict baseball, and you certainly can't expect to track progress in straight lines.

In the coming months, there are going to be many in the "spend to contend" camp who assure you that if ownership just got off its wallet and spent on acquiring free agents or expensive veterans to fill in the roster voids, this team would certainly contend. It sounds so easy, really. You plug in the numbers of "known quantities", and bingo-bango: There's your contender. But the truth is that 29 teams every year fail to win the World Series. Two-thirds of teams will fail to make the post-season, for a multitude of reasons. Some of this is foreseeable, but there's a big chunk of it that is dumb luck. And if someone props themselves up beside the flaming pile of a wrecked season and says "I told you so", just remind them that predicting failure in baseball is pretty much the easiest bet there is.

The Jays might "fix" everything this offseason. They might spend vast sums on all of the proven veterans, build a super-Strat-o-Rific monster team, have the benefit of great health and tremendous contributions from their emerging players, and they could still end up on the outside looking in.

If that's a problem for you, you might want to find another pursuit. There is no "Rookie" setting on the real game.

Anything Gose
I don't want to get too far out in front of the "Anthony Gose is back on track" story, but seeing him finally put a few good swings on balls reminded me of another Jays outfielder after his initial call-up.

In his first two seasons with the Jays, Alex Rios posted a .321 on base and a .390 slugging percentage, managing just 11 homers in 979 plate appearances. At the time, it seemed to me as though Rios was focused on just getting his bat on the ball, and not getting embarrassed at the plate. For a player who was 6'5", it seemed as though he was satisfied to just poke at the ball and manage to put it in play.

Gose's approach in the early days has included him trying to drop lots of bunts, a skill at which he is oddly deficient in spite of his apparent affection for it. He's also taken lots of weak and late swings, hacking down on the ball and rarely lifting it with any authority.

Rios was three years older than Gose before he started to really settle in and start swinging with some vigour, swatting 41 homers and posting a .352 OBP/.505 SLG in the 1209 plate appearances that made up his third and fourth seasons. With another year of seasoning at Triple-A next year, Gose might prove yet that he's more than a slash and burn, fourth outfielder.

Two Batting Coaches?
Chad Mottola's reputation continues to grow, as Gose's improvement coincided with some additional time spent with his batting coach in both Las Vegas and after they both received the September callup.

It's always difficult to know how much impact coaches have on players, but if there's something positive that Mottola can contribute at the big league level, I see no reason why the Jays wouldn't add him as an additional hitting coach for next year. So long as there is some agreement between Mottola and hitting coach Dwayne Murphy on the approach they want to take to addressing specific players, an additional set of eyes on the coaching staff is a pretty minor financial investment that could pay dividends at the plate.

Sunday, September 9, 2012

What Remains


Hey, a sweep's a sweep, right?

In the flickering, dying light of a season that has gone all kinds of wrong in all kinds of ways, it still puts a smile on my face when the Blue Jays can head into a division rival's stadium and take three out of three games over a weekend.  Yes, I know it's a sweep of the smouldering crater that remains of the 2012 Boston Red Sox we're talking about. But anything the Jays can do to contribute to the ridiculous soap opera that organization has become should be something we welcome unconditionally.  So give me my moment, would you?

There are some good things happening again, at least.  Brett Lawrie is back in the leadoff spot, and J.P. Arencibia is back behind the plate.  Adeiny Hechavarria and Anthony Gose look like they may have a little more to offer than they showed when they first arrived in the big leagues.  Edwin Encarnacion continues to shine.

Rather than spend the rest of September obsessing over how the team is going to fill second base and left field next year, or which starting pitchers might be available on the trade market, I'm going to try to enjoy what little baseball we have left -- Blue Jays games or otherwise.  I"m going to ENJOY watching Gose and Hechavarria trying to prove they deserve spots on the 2013 team.  I'm going to ENJOY watching Encarnacion try to finish as the home run leader.  I'm going to ENJOY watching Brandon Morrow mow down opposing lineups, and Steve Delabar striking out hapless batters with nasty splitters, and Rajai Davis wreaking havoc on the basepaths.

No, this isn't what we wanted.  Nothing can replace the excitement of a pennant or wild card race, and I don't have to remind fans how long it's been since the Jays have been a part of either of one of those.  I'm not saying it's good enough.  There's work to do on this team to get it healthy and to add the necessary pieces for it to be the playoff contender we want.  It's going to be a fun, long, interesting, infuriating, disappointing and/or redeeming off-season, depending on your perspective.

But I got leaves falling off the tree out front of my house, here, people.  Let's not forget just how close we are to not having ANY BASEBALL TO WATCH AT ALL.  They started freakin' FOOTBALL today (in case you were living under a rock or aren't on Twitter).  If it weren't for a labour dispute, the first twenty minutes of your sportscast would be dedicated to showing a couple AHL hooligans duke it out in an intra-squad Maple Leafs scrimmage.  I know that we've all clamoured for "meaningful games in September" for as long as we can remember, but try to bear in mind that meaningless games are still games, goddammit.

Monday, September 3, 2012

No Sense Putting it Off


I'm a terrible procrastinator.  If there's something that needs doing today, I'm absolutely world-class at finding reasons why it can wait until tomorrow, or next week, or once the snow melts (see: lights, Christmas, taking down of).  It's admittedly a less-than-ideal way to run one's life, but I've never been fired from a job and The Org Wife hasn't divorced me yet, so I can't imagine I'll be changing anytime soon.

Thankfully, the people in charge of the Toronto Blue Jays don't share my approach to putting things off until the last possible second. Or at least, that's one charitable explanation for their decision to rebuild the relief pitching corps during the later stages of the 2012 regular season, as opposed to the off-season.

I'll count myself among those who weren't exactly beaming about the decision to trade the talented yet enigmatic Travis Snider for Brad Lincoln, a young-ish bullpen arm who had struggled as a starter in his early career.  But as time has worn on, I've begun to look at that deal as part of a package -- one that began with the J.A. Happ trade and that culminated with the Lincoln and Steve Delabar trades.

Taken as one, these trades have put the bullpen in a far different (and far stronger) position than it was in the early part of the season, and in a way that sets up some continuity for 2013 as well.  Delabar and Lincoln, along with Casey Janssen and a hopefully-healthy Sergio Santos, can already be pencilled in as half of what should be a pretty effective, reasonably young, hard-throwing bullpen (or more than half, if the eight-man pen rightfully fades from the plans next year).

The emergence of Aaron Loup is also promising, and if he can continue performing at even a remotely comparable level to what he's delivered thus far, he would make a fine left-handed complement to that core relief group.

As for the aforementioned Happ, the seeming indecision about his role after his acquisition -- starter or reliever -- puts him in a group of three pitchers fighting for what looks like two spots.  One of Happ, Brett Cecil or Aaron Laffey seems likely to open next season as a starter with another filling a long-relief role (noting that Cecil is set to work out of the bullpen as a September call-up and Laffey is already plying his trade there, while Happ is currently pitching quite effectively in the rotation even as I type).

*EDIT after the fact: Laffey, of course, is not actually signed as of now for 2013, making this less of a competition than it seemed.  These are the sorts of things I should check before I write, I suppose.

The point is, barring injury or significant trades, there are a great many relatively solidified spots already in the bullpen for 2013, and this puts next year's team miles ahead of where it has been entering the last couple of seasons.  Rather than filling out the bullpen with available arms on one-year free agent contracts just prior to spring training -- basically the modus operandi for much of the Anthopoulos tenure -- he tended to it when the opportunity presented itself in another way.

I have to wonder whether Alex Anthopoulos began looking ahead to this off-season several weeks ago, and determined that if he had the chance now to add the bullpen personnel he wanted, he was going to do it so that he could focus on the more glaring weaknesses that need to be addressed over the winter.  In other words, unlike your humble correspondent, there was no procrastination.

Anthopoulos has largely acknowledged the areas of need: the starting rotation, left field, second base (probably) and first base/DH.  There was plenty of scoffing about Anthopoulos' comments in which he lauded the bullpen (and the offense) as "championship-calibre", but even if you take the boasting with a grain of salt, the arms he's added to the bullpen mix have at least added a small measure of certainty to the off-season.

I'll be the first to acknowledge the volatility of relief pitching (remember May when we all felt like the bullpen would be a 2012 strength?), so all of this might be moot if the performances out there all go pear-shaped.  But Anthopoulos has clearly changed his approach to building a bullpen, focusing on controllable pitchers now rather than scrambling for springtime leftovers, and if those pitchers can continue their current level of play, it'll be one fewer box to have to try to check off for 2013.