Miscellaneous on a Saturday Night

But first, an apology of sorts
Let's just get this out of the way. I've been a bad blogger for the better part of the season. I know it, you know it, let's not pretend otherwise. One post weekends have become the norm rather than the exception.

It's not from a lack of interest from me - far from it. This team seems to be so close (yet so far) from contending that it's exhilarating watching the pieces slowly fall into place, following along in the game of AA Ninja.

It's just about time, man. Busy work schedule, occasional travel, two kids, summer holidays..... so cliche yet so unavoidable. So there you go. It's not you, it's me.

Trade deadline - chips?
Old Dutch plain ripple and a tub of dill pickle dip FTW.

No but seriously.... with lots of periphery chatter about how hard Anthopoulos is working the phones (big surprise), could something actually be, y'know, up?

Generally with AA, where there's smoke there isn't fire, and the big moves come out of the blue. Thing is, with all the reports of the Jays working the phones.... they aren't actually tied to anything big. So are they?

Yes, of course I'm just stirring the pot and playing the proverbial devil's advocate here. But it's fun so what the fuck, right? If the Jays were to do something "big", who's in play?

How about Travis d'Arnaud? I know, I know, and I know. But hear me out first....

I'm just as protective of future studliness as the next guy.... but if the team plans on contending within the next few seasons, and it's generally accepted that even the studliest of catching studs playing AA ball won't be impact players at the major league level for a few seasons beyond that, isn't he then a prime chip?

And does anyone really believe that JP Arencibia is really a .217 hitter? Isn't it reasonable to assume he can at least be a .250 player (yes, I know. Batting average hahahaha) with 25-HR power & passable defence? And isn't that pretty close to all-star production at the position?

I'm just saying, a top-20 prospect at a premium position could bring back a pretty big return at a position of weakness. Whatever that may be....

The end of summer (of Jo-Jo)
Kind of says it all that the news is buried this far down in the post. And doesn't warrant more than two sentences.

So what are the missing pieces?
The d'Arnaud bit above got me thinking.... just what exactly are the holes in the Blue Jay roster that need to be filled for this team to take a legitimate run in the next few seasons?

We can reasonably assume that AA's phone calls do not revolve around acquiring a catcher, first baseman, shortstop, third baseman (the job is Lawrie's), or right fielder.

Center fielder can't be seen as a priority given what's on the roster and coming up (Gose)... unless Colby Rasmus is indeed "in play". And you would think that left field is kinda sorta maybe reserved for one of Snider or Thames, at least in the near-term.

So what does that leave? Another big arm in the rotation? Are Aaron Hill's days numbered? A stealth upgrade at a position covered above? More "future pieces"?

In reality, this is all an exercise in futility. Trying to get in the head of Alex Anthopoulos? Forget it.

On Kevin Slowey and Heath Bell
Is Slowey really much more than a refined Jesse Litsch? And are we really still pursuing relievers for comp pick purposes?

On Brett Lawrie
8 for his last 15 Vegas at-bats. Bring him up before he gets hit again.

On Roberto Alomar and Pat Gillick
They are Hall of Famers. And I will be watching tomorrow and remembering '92 and '93.

Holy shit, those were good times.

Various and Sundry Bits for a Steamy Friday

No Friday Tweet Bag this week. Y'all are on vacation and/or melting anyhow, and no one even commented on last week's edition. The Tweet Bag will return when enough people beg me to do one. Instead, a few random bits of chaff gathered from hither and yon.

Falling Slowly for Kevin Slowey: According to Fox Sports' Jon Paul Morosi, the Jays have scouted the rehab starts of Twins' starter Kevin Slowey. This isn't the first time we've heard of such a thing, as there were previous rumblings in the Spring (and maybe even into last year.) But we'll admit to being a bit underwhelmed by the prospect of a fifth starter with decent control, but who has a hard time breaking 89 MPH with his fastball.

Slowey's career xFIP is 4.17, which isn't exactly sterling. He is essentially the Anglo version of Carlos Villaneuva (4.04 career xFIP), although it is an open questions as to whether if Villaneuva sticks around much longer.

A Casual Meander Through the Heath: It seems absurd to think that the Jays would give anything up for a brief rental on Padres closer Heath Bell, but as we tweeted last night, the Miguel Olivo deal to get additional draft picks provides some hint as to the method behind such Anthopoulosean madness.

Should the Jays somehow find a manner of extracting Bell from the Padres for something less than the value they'd receive for two early 2012 draft picks, don't go getting attached. Bell may still be an All-Star by reputation, but his strikeout rate has plummeted this year (from 11.06 per nine innings in 2010 to 6.69 this year.) His xFIP has jumped almost a full point (2.98 to 3.84), and hitters' contact rates are soaring against him this year (from 57.1% to 66.2% for balls out of the zone, and from 84.0% to 91.2% for balls in the zone.)

Take a soon-to-be 34 year-old Heath Bell with those sorts of declining numbers, take him out of the spacious confines of PetCo Park and drop him into the AL East, and you've got yourself next year's bullpen migraine.

Saving It for the Second Half : Rajai Davis' career OPS splits are both pretty stark, and very much in keeping with what we've seen so far this year. Davis has posted a .637 OPS (.288 OBP/.349 SLG) throughout his career in the first half, while cooking up a .757 OPS (.349/.407) in the second half.

Rajai's first half OPS this year clocked in at an ugly .621 (.264/.357), but here's hoping that the Seattle series (4-for-7, two doubles, four stolen bases) augurs well for the remainder of the year. It wouldn't change our view that Rajai should serve essentially as a fourth outfielder and pinch runner next year, but a productive Davis would add a different dimension to the Jays' offense over the balance of the schedule.

A Great Weekend for Canadian Baseball: We're not sure how someone could overlook it at this point, given all of the attention is has received, but make sure to tune into the Hall of Fame ceremonies this weekend. (1 PM this Sunday on all of Sportsnet's regions). It should be an extraordinary afternoon for Canadian baseball fans. With two essential pieces of the Jays' glory years in Robbie Alomar and Pat Gillick being inducted, it will give fans the chance to ponder those tremendous seasons, and reflect on how they came to be.

(And for more Roberto reminiscences, be sure to check out Chris Jaffe's piece over on the Hardball Times, which lists some of Alomar's greatest achievements with the Jays and elsewhere. A very fun piece.)

But we're also equally excited for the induction of former Expos broadcaster Dave Van Horne. Van Horne is a great raconteur, and we look forward to the chance to revisit the proud history of baseball in Montreal. Van Horne's was the play-by-play voice in my head in my very first days of playing baseball in whatever patch of mowed grass we could find in my neighbourhood.

Thinking of the Expos is a bittersweet task these days, but hearing Van Horne's assured baritone will certainly bring to mind those great teams from the early 1980's.

Wither the Level of Excellence...and What Next?

As the ever-vigilant Brad Fullmer Fan is fond of pointing out, we have a knack around here for sucking the fun out of things. We'd like to think that it has something to do with being too analytical, and unable to enjoy something without sniffing around it and observing it from every angle.

(Humblebrag?)

So, when we heard that the Jays were going to retire Robbie Alomar's number 12 on July 31st, we'll confess that "happiness" may have been a little late to our party of emotions. (Whike surprise and confusion were right there at the door, waiting to come in.) Mostly, we were left wondering: If we're going to start retiring numbers, then what's the deal with the Level of Excellence?

Truth is (and we're pretty sure we've said this elsewhere), we liked the idea that the Jays honoured some of their historical greats, but kept their former uniform digits in circulation. Every time Scott Downs came into a game in recent years, wearing number 37, we thought of our patron saint. And it made us happy.

Now, with this announcement, the Jays essentially have two levels of honourable recognition, and some players are more honoured than others. Which is just a bit confusing to us.

This isn't to say that we don't like the idea of retiring Robbie's number. If that's the new tradition, then we're cool with that. But what about Stieb or Tony Fernandez? And eventually, Carlos Delgado and Roy Halladay? Do we have to get into a discussion of who belongs on which level of recognition. Will there be Members of the Order of Blue Jays? And maybe you ascend into becoming a Companion of the Order of Blue Jays at some point?

(We just totally confused our American readers with that last bit.)

And if you do begin to stratify the Blue Jays legends, who belongs in which strata? We're sure that part of the argument for having Alomar be first amongst legends is the fact that he's the first Blue Jay to be recognized by the Hall of Fame, though we'd also argue that just five of his 17 seasons were spent in Toronto (magnificent as they were), and that the recognition is as much for his excellence as a member of the Orioles and Indians as it is for his exceptional contributions to the Blue Jays.

Sure, Alomar was probably the best player to ever play for the Blue Jays (aside from Scott Rolen, of course...GBOAT!) But did he make the most substantial contribution to the franchise over his career?

Don't get us wrong here. We're not trying to diminish Alomar at all, and we're definitely not saying that the Jays need to maintain the status quo in these matters. Traditions are great, but it's also fun to be there at the dawn of a new tradition. What we're probably saying is that if the Jays are going to begin retiring numbers, then 37, 1, 25 and 32 should also probably be placed on a shelf for the time being.

The Meaning of Jason Frasor

Rather than post what we'd planned and redundantly add to the already excellent pieces written on Frasor's tenure with the Jays by the NatPost's John Lott and the Score's Dustin Parkes, we will offer three brief bits for you.

(Also, we don't feel like passing judgment on players for a while, because we hate the comments that we get in return. "OOOOH! Joey Caaaahter was grrrrrreat! Two of them World Series, awll becawse of him and his big batting bat bats. You cain't aaaahrgue wiff dat wiff your wrong stats!")

1) Jason Frasor never wore the T-Bird cap. You could look it up, or we could just give you this link that proves it. What this means is that the crappy black caps have been around for a long, long, long time. Long live the T-Bird!

2) In Jason Frasor's first game as a Jay, the team's lineup included Dave Berg, Chris Gomez, Josh Phelps and Chad frickin' Hermansen. (Hands up if you remembered that Chad Hermansen played for the Jays. Or played pro baseball anywhere...If you raised your hand, YOU LIE!!! LIAR FACE!) There were some cruddy teams over the past decade and a half, and that was definitely one of them.

3) Actually, there is no three. We just want to mash our hands into the keyboard and see if you'll notice. l;dkj fniqweee ncnahfvslkjsfedvuio4589q3489opqc23bu ioppppppqwerfffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffaw8o790tqwfeo qweiopqwepoi8qw4reiopiopiopiopiop qw 9qwe2r3iprdrdtgyhjklrtdfg6yh7juk tfryhuji tgyyyykl 4r5 uy8nm4t5r gbynujh7.

A two-sentence post on.... Joe Carter love

Statistically speaking, it's pretty hard to argue that Joe Carter was probably less than an ideal middle of the order hitter, and using those same statistical measures, it's also difficult to make the case that Joe was among the best players on the teams he played for.

But he was also a middle of the order hitter for two World Series winning teams and delivered what will likely be the greatest baseball memory for a generation of Blue Jay fans, so really..... what more could you ask of him?

Tweet Bag - Your Tweeted Questions Answered...Definitively!

So, we were considering taking a pass on the Tweet Bag this week, mostly because we figured it would be a waste of energy to write up this here blog entry if you all were headed out to the tamed wilderness to sit drink and bask in the glow of sunsets over the lake, whilst we remain stuck to our couch, icing our allegedly repaired knee back to health.

But we're not that petty. (Also, we may have just watched She's Out of My League for the third time, which probably indicates that we could stand to be more productive. Still, that Alice Eve is a looker.)

Let's roll.

First up, @mstoreshaw asks: Does David Cooper have any trade value whatsoever? Did we just become best friends? Do you wanna do karate in the garage?

Sadly, we had to look up that pop culture reference, only to realize that we knew it from the trailers. Still...have you seen how pretty Alice Eve is?

In spite of some pretty glorious PCL stats, we can't think of a team that really has a need for a player like Cooper. First base just seems like a spot where anyone with a bat can get plugged in, and so most teams would likely have some kid who was drafted as a shortstop who they'll need to move there. It's not to say that we don't think Coop is devoid of value, because his Las Vegas numbers were/are better Brett Wallace's. But he'll need to post another good half year in AAA before he really starts to push his way into any team's plans.

Go go go! @prmaltais asks: With Janssen about to come back, who gets sent down? Perez? Or is a trade going to free up a spot?

Good question, and one that we hadn't really pondered until just now. There's some time, we presume, between Casey's call up from the treehouse, so it could be that there is someone on the roster who'll move to the DL (gulp) in the interim. Still, all things being equal, we'd concur with your assessment as to the most likely candidate to go. We like Luis Perez quite a bit, but his last handful of performances have been less than exemplary. Also, the Jays might want to send him down to get stretch him out a bit so that if he returns to starting next year, they're not faced with cutting his innings at 150 or fewer.

And another thing! @xsoccermomx (who is a dude named Wayne from Edmonton) asks: Do you see Loewen in the jays line up this year. Or is he a long term project?

Loewen has already been a bit of a long-term project for the Jays, having spent three years in their system, turning himself into a pretty credible hitter. The catch is that if the Jays recall him, they have to be somewhat certain that they are going to stick with him, because he is out of options due to his dark days in the OriLOLes system. Still, we'd figure that the Jays likely give him a shot this season if a roster spot is available due to someone hitting the DL. (Double gulp.)

After this season, we'd figure that the Jays will let Loewen explore his options on the market in case there is another team who might be able to use him. It's the honourable thing to do.

Next! Someone flatter us...@GrubersMullet! Hey you sexy son of a bitch. How much better of a ballplayer would Eric Thames be if he would learn to take more walks?

Sexy? You don't know the half of it. We've got a week and a half of beard going right now, so we kinda look like that werewolf Alcide from True Blood. Without all the muscles, mind you. Sookeh!

As for Thames, yeah, we've developed a bit of dread over the past week or so about his free swinging ways. Yes, all is peachy keen right now, but even a former Silver Slugger winning 2B who puts up big counting stats can see his career crumble beneath his feet if he doesn't work to curb his free swinging ways, so Thames isn't immune to such things.

(Mind you, Thames drew 23 walks in 241 PAs at Las Vegas this year, and for his minor league career drew a walk about once every 11 PAs. So while we wouldn't call that one of his "tools", he's shown that he can be patient enough. Given some time, we're optimistic that this will come.)

Did someone refer obliquely to Aaron Hill? @Linutor asks: If Aaron Hill is not here next year, who will be his replacement? Maybe If Aaron Hill was not here, who would be? Tenses...

Hey man, keep fighting the fight for good grammar. Respect. As for Hill, it's really hard to say if he will be back, or who might replace him. There's no obvious candidates in the minors who are pushing their way onto the MLB roster, so the replacement would likely come from outside the franchise. As we've noted before, we're not a soothsayer, so we'd prefer not to float out random trade scenarios.

Speaking of which...@uberkraken asks: Morrow for Rasmus - your fair and balanced thoughts please.

We love Rasmus, but good starting pitching is really hard to find, and the ceiling that Morrow has is just too high to ship him out for a bat. And sure, CF is a "premium position", as Alex Anthopoulos is fond of saying, but the San Francisco Giants won the the World Series last season with journeyman Andres Torres in the middle of the outfield. Meanwhile, their expensive free agent acquistion Aaron Rowand languished on the bench. (Our point being, you can shell out resources of personnel or money to get a premium player at a premium position, and then win with a guy who's not that much better than Rajai Davis.)

More? Why not? @juanthedodger asks: with Reyes stumbling and healthy pitchers working to get back what are our options in Aug and Sept?

We think the Jays are likely to just ride this Jo-Jo thing right through until the end of the year. They've come this far already, why cast him out now? But if there are vacancies, we can see the Jays looking to Zach Stewart again, as well as to Brad Mills, and Jesse Litsch will eventually be allowed back. And one more name to remember: We keep hearing AA mention Joel Carreno, who is on the 40-man roster and is outperforming Zach Stewart at New Hampshire. (3.32 ERA, 115Ks / 49 BBs in 97.2 IPs.) He could get a call in a pinch.

Encore! @Clarklawyer asks: Did @JoeyBats19 think "If Jays lose a few, MVP chance good, if Jays win I'll come back and 'grit it out' thus MVP chance good"?

Okay, we know 140 characters is a squeeze, but we're not entirely sure what you're getting at here. But we've had a few questions around the MVP and Bautista, and we're just going to say: Let go of that thought. Let it go. It's just going to hurt to damn much when the last two months of the season play out, and it all points to someone else.

Bautista will get votes, to be sure. But when a writer who we consider vaguely enlightened (that's you, Mr. Jeff Blair) hoarsely sputters out that he would pick Adrian Gonzalez over Bautista because his team is in contention, you know that there are a great many writers who remain locked into that mindset. (It's partly why we hate the "valuable" aspect of the award...we wish they would just refer to it as the "Player of the Year", and be done with it. Alas, that's just one of many impossible battles that we fight in our imagination.)

And as for what the One Man Gang is thinking? We wouldn't imagine that he's got his eyes on the MVP at this point. But if he did, there is no better way to make your case than to be in the lineup and performing at your best.

Last one! @GregEdwards10 asks: What does your ideal Trade Deadline look like for the Jays? (What moves do you want to see?)

It's hard to believe that the Trade Deadline is just a couple of weeks away at this point, but there it is. We wouldn't expect the Jays to be overly busy on the day of the deadline, as Anthopoulos doesn't seem to be wired in that way. He made the Yunel deal in the days after the All Star break last year, so if there is a deal to be done, we can see him letting rip in the next week or waiting until August to work deals through waivers.

We've heard some speculate on Carlos Villaneuva as potential trade bait, and he is probably the most attractive piece that the Jays have to dangle at this point. However, the Jays still have one more year of arbitration rights on him, so there isn't a great urgency to ship him out. Not to exemplify our perpetual fence-sittingness, but we figure it's a 50/50 chance that Villaneuva gets moved.

As for what we'd like to see: We'd prefer that the Jays only be active if it is worth being active. There's no urgency for them to move a player at the deadline, as they can improve the team now or in the offseason. What can we say...we're not big on the trade speculation.

And with that, we bid you the finest of weekends, my ambulatory friends. We're likely to be tweeting often from our couch, facing out our rear window, so stop by and say hi if you're still in range.

Kill Your Idols - The Joe Carter Takedown

If there's one thing we tell people about what this blog has meant to us since we started it so many years ago, it's that writing this much about the Jays and baseball in general has fundamentally changed the way we look at the game. We'd like to think for the better. Sometimes, we're sure you'd disagree.

This isn't to say that the changes in our outlook have been a steady march up the hills to get a greater perspective on the valley below (though it would be nice to think of it in that manner.) Instead, we've meandered through the woods somewhat, discarding certain points of reference (batting average, for instance), only to come back to it later, albeit in a different manner.

(To wit: This year, we've started to gain a renewed appreciation for batting average as a certain kind of indicator, though one which still remains far beneath OBP or even wOBA.)

We've always understood that with this new sense of the game, our views on our past heroes would be open for examination given a second look through their numbers. And in general, we've hesitated to even really begin this parsing process, in part so that we could leave our nostalgic view of the Jays' glory years intact.

(Though if there is an argument for going back through those memories, it is that in recent months, we've found that the sepia-toned memories of the World Series winners has clouded the judgment of the fanbase as they continue to cultivate an impatient anger towards the lack of progress in the development of Alex Antopoulos' plan.)

Still, if we're going to do this, we'd probably choose Joe Carter as a jumping off point because of the extent to which he helped to tarnish his legacy in his later years with the club. So it hurts us a lot less than, say, a look at Tony Fernandez. (Also, when we jokingly floated this topic on Twitter, we were surprised at just how outsized the love for Carter remains to this day.)

So lets pile up on some high quality glucosomine tablets and work our finger joints until they hurt. So here's why Joe Carter was not the player you may have thought.

1) Joe Carter was never the best player on his team: Carter's best season with the Jays was likely 1991, when he posted at 4.1 WAR (using Baseball Reference's version of the stat.) That's the 39th best season in the history of the franchise, tied with Marco Scutaro's 2008 campaign. (Which isn't terrible, of course. But we're not exactly looking to get Scoots on the Level of Excellence either.)

His career rWAR as a Jay is a 5.7, dragged down by negative numbers posted in his final three seasons with the club. All-time, Carter ranks tied for 35th amongst Jays in the category, tied with Tony Batista and Manny Lee. Let that roll around your head for a moment. Then add in that Pretty Alex Gonzalez, Frank Catalanotto, Eric Hinske, Orlando Hudson and Otto Velez all rank ahead of Carter.

And even if you want to strip out the defensive metrics and look just at offensive WAR, Carter still only manages to land 22nd on the All-Time list, behind Hinske, Alex Rios, Kelly Gruber, and José Cruz.

In Carter's 1992 season (in which he chafed at not winning the AL MVP), he posted a 2.4 rWAR, which was the sixth best amongst Blue Jays position players (behind Manny Lee! Just .1 higher than Candy Maldonado!) Yes, Carter hit a bunch of homers and drove in a lot of runs in the middle of a go-go offense, but he posted an .808 OPS for the season, including a .309 OBP. His third place finish in the MVP voting that year was a gift from the writers, still too focused on the RBI as the measure of a productive hitter.

2) Joe Carter made a lot of outs: In his seven years with Toronto, Joe Carter made 3205 outs in 4494 plate appearances. His OBP over that period? .308, a number which would engender much scorn these days. Carter never posted an OBP higher than .330 with the Jays, which he managed in 1991. Beyond that, he scraped barely above .300 until 1997, when he managed to snag his requisite 100 RBI season with an OBP of .283 and a SLG of .399.

3) Joe Carter was The Manager's type of guy: If there is one thing that buoyed Carter's status in Toronto for many of the years that he played here, it was the insistence of The Manager that he hit cleanup, and that he hit like a cleanup hitter. Go up there and drive in runs. Swing the bat, hard and often. And you'll be rewarded by keeping the fourth spot in the lineup for as long as you keep hacking away.

Once the bottom fell out, and good players started to leave Toronto, The Manager stubbornly left Carter where he wished to stay while better hitters were shunted out of the lineup or out of town. Keep piling up those counting stats, and we'll keep giving you the opportunity to do so.

(And if you don't remember how ugly Carter looked in desperately trying to attain the 100 RBI plateau in 1997, trust us when we tell you that it was awful to see.)

Cito loved Carter, and couldn't wait to mould John Olerud into a hack and slash hitter like Joe. And when Olerud couldn't suck like that, they shipped him out of town.

4) Joe Carter couldn't carry Fred McGriff's jock: Sure, Carter got to hit the big home run, and we suppose that makes him a winner. But you know what sort of numbers Fred McGriff posted in the seven years that Carter was in Toronto? A .376 OPS, .517 SLG, for an OPS of .893 while Carter managed the aforementioned .308 to go with a .473 SLG, for an OPS of .781. The mythology states that the Jays couldn't win until Carter came to town, but we'd hazard a guess that the change had more to do with Roberto Alomar's inclusion in that deal.

None of this is to say that Carter was a terrible player. In fact, if you were to swap out his name for another, one might be able to make the case that he was kind of a greatish Jay. But strip away some of the importance placed upon counting stats like homers and RBI, and Joe Carter's place in the pantheon of Jays greats looks considerably shakier.

Thoughts at the Halfway-Not-Really-Halfway Break

Hey! Did you miss us last week? We were laid up after a bit of reconstructive surgery (no, really), and doped up like Mark Renton when he sank into the carpet listening to Lou Reed's Perfect Day. At one point in our recovery, we swear we saw Jesse Litsch crawling across our ceiling. So while we were able to take in a lot of baseball, our ability to actually sit up and blog about it was fairly limited. Nevertheless, here we are. Back again.

(Or did you not even notice that we were gone? We're cool with that, we suppose...it's not as though we crave your approval or anything. ROAWR MOAR LUV PLEEZ!)

There are a few contextual pieces that we'll be working on in the next week or so, and we'll likely get caught up in the All Star shenanigans over the next few days, so there will be plenty to update this week. Stay tuned.

Briefly, though, we had a few superficial whims that we thought we'd share to help us warm up the blogging muscle again. We'd hate to pull something.

Eric Thames Is More Than a Facefull of Hair: We were inclined not to get overly excited about the Jays' rookie outfielder, given that prospect experts were lukewarm on him and the ballpark in New Hampshire was held up as a power-inflator. Well, colour us pleasantly surprised.

That swing still seems longer than Tarkovsky Trilogy, but Thames gets his bat through the hitting zone so quickly that it hardly seems to matter. Sure, he's only suited up for 28 games, but the numbers thus far (.382 wOBA, .212 ISO, .876 OPS) are all positively dreamy. (Enough so that we're willing to overlook some of the defensive weaknesses that he's shown, in part because he's also a max effort guy defensively, and we can see his routes to balls improving with time.)

We're loving Thames' presence in two-hole, and we can actually see him staying with the big club from here on out, and for many years to come. The future, as they say, is now.

It's Getting Better All the Time: Mired in an offensive funk (and not the awesome George Clinton sort of funk that you gotta have) for months, it's great to see that a couple of additions to (and notable subtractions from) the lineup have created a much more fearsome scoring machine in the past week or so. This is especially true now that Travis Snider is hitting the ball in actuality in the same manner that he slugs it in our fondest dreams. (Drew/Tao Same Guy Alert: We were pretty much writing this post until we noticed that Drew ghostran with it before we got there.)

Add to that Thames' mighty uppercut, the ongoing awesomnity of Yunel Escobar and a reinvigorated Rajai Davis (who still tries to bunt with runners on second and two outs, but eventually swings the bat and drives in said runners), and the Jays' lineup starts to look imposing around the One Man Gang and Adam Lind.

We're not sure that the pitching of the Clevelanders was necessarily the right test to tell us whether if this offense has started to crank it up and turn it around, but what we saw over the last four games (and since the series against the Phillies, frankly) gives us plenty of hope for the second portion of the schedule.

Bullpen Solutions: So it seems as though the Jays bullpen, constructed over the offseason with cheap-ish deposed former closers, has eventually played out the way we should have figured in the first place: With a bunch of pitchers hurling their way out of the closer role.

So what's the solution? Does the team continue to send Frank Francisco out in the ninth because he throws hard, misses bats (allegedly) and because "he's the guy". Do they give Jon Rauch opportunities here or there, or even let Jason Frasor get his licks in?

Our solution? Well, at the moment, our solution is on the DL. But when he comes back and gets a few innings in, we'd be tempted to let Casey Janssen have a shot at the ninth inning spots. He's posted a 3.12 xFIP thus far this year, and is actually missing bats much more than he used to (8.13 K/9, which is more than Frasor, Rauch or Rzep.)

At this point, we're not sure the Jays would have much to lose in giving him a try out in the role. (Other than Type A status for Francisco, though he seems eager to lose that all for himself.)

Final Thoughts: It's great to be back, kids. See you on the Twitter today, and tonight during the José Home Run Soiree.

A One-Sentence Post on...New Snider

When he left early in the season, Travis Snider (always the Great Big Giant Pasty White Rosy-Cheeked Hope to us) looked like a bad impression of Dave Kingman's worst seasons, but now he's returned looking like Wally Joyner in his good seasons, which - for those of you who are too young to really recall either of these 1980's - is actually a pretty solid trade off.

Quickly on a Sunday: end of Juan

If "Who is Juan Rivera?" was the question on Jeopardy, then the category had to be "Obvious Blue Jay DFA's" (with apologies to Jayson Nix, natch).

And so it ends, the Juan Rivera era. Through minimal (ok, some....) fault of his own, he just never seemed like he was long for the organization; a placeholder until management deemed the younger bats were ready, or more likely, until there were no further excuses readily available for not handing all those at-bats to players who could be the future. Travis Snider handling his demotion to AAA with grace and implementing all the changes asked of him, plus Eric Thames producing huge in his limited major league life had to be the final nails in the coffin.

For the record, I never find joy in a player losing his job. It's part of the reason I sometimes contemplate quitting The Twitter - it's just soooo easy to say shitty things about people - people! - you know nothing about other than a glimpse into what you want to believe that person is like viewed through a three hour window of baseball nightly. I'm sure Juan Rivera isn't a loafing loner who cares nothin' about nothin' "in real life", even if I've backhandedly expressed as much in 140 characters or less. That makes me the asshole, not him.

But Juan is gone, and gawdammit... I'm pretty excited about it.

Not (so much) because I wanted him off the team, but rather, because we're getting closer to the team we (if I may be so bold) all wanted to see coming out of spring. But is it false hope?

Do we risk having our collective dreams shattered if these baby Jays - with everyday at-bats given to the likes of Snider, Thames, Arencibia, and eventually Lawrie - go out and massively disappoint in the second half? Then what?

That's part of religiously following a baseball franchise, maybe (probably?) moreso than any other sport. The best team always seems to be the next crop coming up.

Let's just hope this version of the club is the one that keeps our attention on Toronto and not Las Vegas.

Yes, it is a Halladay post

So Roy is coming home this weekend.

Couple things about that sentence. First draft had "Roy Halladay" in place of just "Roy".... but it didn't feel right. Still. Had to go with Roy. The second thing I'm not so sure about. "Home".

If you're a long-ish time reader of this blog, you'll know by now that I've written a lot about the Doc. Well, "a lot" being used subjectively here, because prolific I ain't. Let's just say I've posted more about Halladay than probably any other singular figure, Blue Jay past or present. And maybe you're sick of it by now. I'll give you that. I kinda sorta maybe thought I would be too.

But I don't think I'm quite there yet.

Maybe because since the trade, nu-Roy has yet to emerge. It's not for lack of effort by the team, or by this guy in trying to find one. Jose Bautista is probably as close as it gets, and maybe by mid-contract he is that guy. Hey man, maybe he already is, you know?

And if Roy v2.0 has to be a pitcher, then pretty clearly it's going to be Ricky Romero. I love Ricky. He's a battler, he's fun to watch pitch, and he's pretty much everything you're looking for in your staff leader. You'll note I didn't say "ace". Do you think he's there yet? To these eyes, the fact we have to ask the question probably tells you the answer. That's no slight against Romero. Not in the least. But there was never a question with Roy.....

I PVR quite a few Blue Jay games every year. If I'm going to be out of the house or have to run off or put the kids to bed or whateverthefuck, I hit record and catch up later. Then I delete the game. Always. Except for once. One time I couldn't hit delete, and I still haven't. September 30, 2009. You'll remember that game as Roy's last start. You might remember it was a complete game shutout - his 2nd straight to close the season.... and his career as a Blue Jay.

I also remember it as the game where he drilled Big Papi as retaliation for Papelbon's ratfuck douche move in drilling Adam Lind the night before as he stood in looking for his fourth home run of the game. We knew he had to do it. Roy knew he had to do it. And he did it. Then he shut the door on the god damned Red Sox the rest of the way. Unforgettable.

Now is when I bring this full circle:

Do we really need another Roy Halladay? I mean, objectively - do we need to have that one guy to hang our hat on? Let's look at team success - I'd say 2 years post-Halladay we are no further ahead or behind, from a win-loss perspective anyway. It's pretty clear that in baseball, one player does not a team make. Not even a player like Doc. Sure, he took the Phillies to the NLCS (edited: thanks anon).... but you might want to ask Cole Hamels, Roy Oswalt, Chase Utley, and the rest of that stacked team if they had anything to do with it.

So do we need another Halladay? For selfish reasons, sure... it's fun to have one. And if understatement's not your thing, then let's say it's fucking awesome to have a guy who routinely leaves opponents shaking their heads and has the unquestioned respect of the league.

Point being.... when I'm watching Halladay take on the Blue Jays this weekend, I'll no doubt reminisce fondly on his time with our - yes, our - team. But Halladay's moved on, and so have we.

Now go kick Roy Halladay's ass, Ricky.

(postscript: so Halladay doesn't start until Sunday, negating the Ricky-Roy showdown. Kind of takes the bite out of the whole "kick his ass, Ricky" thing.)

Thursday Pre-Canada Day Tweetbag

It's Canada Day, goddamnit! Time to get yo draaaank on and feel vaguely superior because, you know...we're not Americans. (With due apologies to our American readers. Sometimes, our patriotism comes at your expense. Though your loyal blogger is not of that sort.)

Wave a flag, raise a brew, and let's get on with it. Tweetbag into the weekend!

First up, @mstoreshaw asks: Who's next year's backup catcher? Hard to dislike 2011's Molina, but is 2012 a younger guy's turn? What's your Canada Day beer?

There's a question, we suppose, as to whether is José Molina will break down physically by next year to the point where his best attributes (notably, that smile, his great haircut and his well groomed facial hair) will fall into question. Molina has been perfectly serviceable, and we think he's been a good mentor to J.P. Arencibia, though really, how the hell would we know such a thing?

There's a question as to whether if Travis d'Arnaud will be ready by next year, or if Brian Jeroloman might be the catch-and-throw guy in 2012 or 2013, and whether if the Jays are ready to go with two younger catchers. We don't think that such a thing will send the rotation into freefall, given that Arencibia has already shown some impressive growth in his defensive and game calling abilities. If it were Molina, we'd be fine with that, but if one of the youngsters is ready, then we'd be happy to see the (stop us before we say it) Catcher of the Fut...Urgh. Just barfed in the wastebasket.

Speaking of which: Beer choices! We were going to rock the Kronnenbourg 1667 for Canada Day (Mais oui!), but given that we should show some damn patriotism, we'll be scarfing back some Propeller Best Bitter (Halifax! What up!) and some other local Ontario beer that we can't remember, but that we picked up in Merrickville a few weeks ago. We'll tweet the name later.

MORE!

@infieldflyrule asks: Does the warm reception Doc's sure to get hold throughout Saturday's game? Should it?

Oh sure. Why not. It should be fun for people to see Doc again, and get to appreciate what he brought to the team for lo, those many individually glorious years.

(Though, if Toronto fans seem so determined to boo every cat who comes back, why would they heap scorn on Lyle Overbay? Especially since his worst crime against the franchise was, you know, being Lyle Overbay...Meanwhile, Halladay pretty much engineered his exit and limited the Jays' potential for maximizing their return by insisting on essentially one destination...But nevermind that.)

Here's what we suggest: Get misty-eyed in the first inning when you see Roy in another team's uni, standing on the Rogers Centre mound. And then, when the Jays light him up for ten runs (it could happen!), hit your feet and root root root for the home team. Halladay was a special player, and deserves a nice ovation. But let's not lose track of where our allegiances lie.

And another thing! @timmyd_ asks: Best guess: DFAd or traded (or neither) by July 31: Rivera? Patterson? EE? Nix? Hill (gasp)?

Is this sorta like that Fuck/Marry/Kill game? (And BTW, doesn't that game end up in a pretty grim place? Like, couldn't it be Fuck/Marry/Completely Ignore? Just to be more civilized?)

To the point, though. We'll call this game "Here/Released/Elsewhere", and we'll extend the timeframe to August 31, because some of these sorts of players probably only get dealt after the deadline, and closer to September 1st. And here it is:

Hill - Here
Nix - Released
EE - Here
Rivera - Elsewhere
Patterson - Elsewhere

Another! @blandy12 asks: do you think Davis's faith issues were really a problem, or using it as a crutch?

(For those who are wondering about this question, there's this article from John Lott at the Post that is a fairly intriguing look into Rajai's headspace.) I'm not even particularly sure that what Davis had was a "faith" issue per se, but that's how he's defining it, so who are we to judge? ("Crutch" sounds pretty harsh here.) Suffice to say, Davis is going through stuff, and it is taking away from his ability to perform his duties on the field. That's all we really care about.

However it is that he thinks he's going to make amends or adjust his behaviour in order to get back on track, that's his deal. We just expect him to perform.

Onward! @GrubersMullet asks: seeing Thames hit his 1st big league HR live last night was a thing of beauty. What kind of player can Thames be for the Jays?

The more we see of Thames, the more we like. We don't figure him to really be a right fielder, so the sooner the Jays can move him back to left, the better. Is he above the Mencherson Line(TM)? Certainly. We see him as an .800 OPS guy, maybe contributing along the lines of the later-era Shannon Stewart. (After he stopped running.) And you know, that's not half bad.

Last one! @Starbyson asks: Isn't doing the same thing over & over expecting a diff. response textbook insane? (re: starting Aaron Hill)

Hill's actually looked as though he's stopped swinging for the fences, and he's still playing good defense, so we're not sure that replacing him with Johnny Mac or Jason Nix at this point makes sense. Hill's never going to be a great on base guy, and dialing back the home run swings in favour of some singles and doubles might lead him into a .320 OBP/.400 SLG territory that could be okay at the bottom of your lineup. We just have to adjust our mindset and not think of him as a Silver Slugger who's having a bad year. He's an okay hitter who had one great year.

Okay! That's it! And of course, it only took us all day to get around to this. That's okay. You'll have all weekend to comment!

Have a great Canada Day weekend, and we'll see you back here...er...eventually.

We Believe in Edwin Encarnacion

(Blogger seems to be acting funny again with the photos, so you'll just have to pretend that you can see the photo of Edwin Encarnacion, shining with a heavenly light with the dulcet tones of the choir invisible singing his praises. It's kinda cool.)

Last night, somewhere in between his two home runs, we offered forth two thoughts on Edwin Encarnacion, which we will recycle here. (You'll forgive us for quoting ourself, like we're Chet from Kicking and Screaming.)

Firstly: "You know who still calls EE "E5"? Prickish fucking ingrates. #YeahThatsYouPal"

And then: "You may say I'm a dreamer...But a 20 HR season for EE is not out of the question."

And we all had a good laugh, and then Edwin cranked another home run, and you all stood dumbfounded by our foresight. (Right?)

It's damn hard being an EE apologist, what with the awful start to the season at the plate, and let's not even mention the fielding. Yet, we've felt for some time as though Encarnacion was starting to pull himself out of the funk and make himself into a perfectly good DH. And yes, the thought that he's the next coming of David Ortiz - a no field, all hit late bloomer - may have crossed our mind. Like, a thousand times or so.

It's not just last night's offensive onslaught that has us thinking in this manner, though. For the month of June, EE has posted a .967 OPS (.356 OBP, .611 SLG) with five doubles and four homers in 59 plate appearances. (And if you want to play a little dirtier with arbitrary endpoints, you can back up a couple of days to May 29th, and jack that OPS up to 1.019 and add another home run to the tote board. Just for fun.)

We've heard EE describe in much harsher terms than "E5" earlier this season, as fans torqued up their anticipatory frustration with the franchise and began referring to Edwin as "garbage" and "nothing" and "worthless". We're not so foolish as to use one game to tell you that we told you so. But we hope some of those who trade in hyperbolic vitriol as they preemptively vacate the bandwagon find that the harsh words towards EE are now much harder to summon.

An Ode to Brett Cecil's Thighs

O! Thighs of Brett Cecil! Mighty stanchions of our hero!
Thou art both rigid and pliable,
Providing both a sound, supportive base,
And dynamic energy for the day's errand.

Pat Tabler might be tempted to say
That thou art "So strong".
(Though such a thing is so often offered forth by the Blonde Banterer
As to be utterly inconsequential.)

Rather, perhaps, thoust are unwavering,
Or unyielding, (though perhaps only somewhat yielding,
What with that one night in Fresno, in which so much was yielded.)

No matter! Thou art true and constant,
Serving as the very base of the man,
Who is occasionally derelict
In his use of your generous capacity for virtuous brawn.

(Because he, who tends to you with squats and lifts -
And all manner of calisthenic -
Will often neglect you, and show undue favour towards
Dubious shoulder, or enigmatic arm.)

Dost he not recognize the folly of merely standing on magnificent pillars,
Using them primarily as a pivot,
When the authoritative brawn within those bedrock limbs
Is the very footing of his future prosperity?

Thighs of Brett Cecil: We implore you
To remain stalwart, staunch and stout.
Hoist the full heft of the man with resolute conviction,
And provide him with the robust mechanism
To once again gleam like a gem
On this, the preeminent pitching plane.

Another Swing of the Pendulum

A week ago, we're all climbing the walls and losing our senses and shouting from the rooftops about just how goddamned mad we are about the shite state of affairs for the Jays.

A week later, we're all good. A weekend sweep will do that.

Okay, it could be that we're swinging a little too far towards the positive after going way over into the negative (or at least what passes for negative from us.) Some of you haven't quite managed to get the taste of the past few weeks from your mouth, and to be honest, we haven't quite either. Getting a weekend to pound on the NL Central is fun and all, but it still featured a pretty sparse lineup that, for the most part, continues to struggle.¹

Still, if there's some saving grace, it is that that the brain trust of the organization seems at the very least prepared to adapt and adjust course at this point of the season, and that they recognize the failings of the team as constructed. The announcement last week that José Bautista would return to the infield to patrol third base might have been seen as a radical move in some markets, but given the year-long exhibition of Jayson Nix's offensive befuddlement and Edwin Encarnacion's immunity to Brian Butterfield's magical defensive coaching powers, Jays fans were ready to give up some of the One Man Gang's outfield worth in favour of a rebalancing of the lineup.

Mind you, the Jays brought up Eric Thames and sat him on Sunday afternoon in spite of the right-hander on the mound. Of course, this speaks to the deeper problem of having one centrefielder who can't hit, three leftfielders to cycle through and only Corey Patterson to fill in up the middle.²

Still, all indications seem to be that Travis Snider will return as soon as he gets a few more games in AAA to shake of the post-beaning rust, and Brett Lawrie will be recalled at the earliest possible time. So there's forward motion, of a sort.

And with all of this, the Jays still sit at an even .500, with a 39-39 record. Now think about all that's gone wrong with this team, and the injuries and backsliding, and the fact that a guy who most wouldn't have figured to make the bullpen is now the team's second-best starter...and yet this team is still ahead of where many of us thought they'd be this year.

Those are small mercies, to be sure. But there are still embers of optimism to be stoked.

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Endnotes are back! Because we love them!

1. The Ricky Romero two-run single is really fun, and we can all enjoy it. But take those two runs he drove in and set them aside, and it underscores the paucity of offensive production that the Jays continue to get, especially from Rajai Davis.

2. And boy howdy! Didn't Corey Patterson do an exquisite job of demonstrating his inability to play CF yesterday.