Various and Sundry Thursday Thoughts: Lind's resurgence and catchers controversies

Photo courtesy @james_in_to's stupendous Flickr stream.

A few whims, notions, impressions and sentiments on the state of the Jays, such as it is...

Lindsanity: The funny thing about the great start to the 2013 that Adam Lind has had is the way that so few are prepared to believe it.

I suppose it makes sense, given the long, slow turgid road that we followed in watching his decline three year death march through the wilderness following his Silver Slugger season of 2009. In the ensuing three years, Lind posted an OPS of .724, saw his effectiveness limited by back problems, and managed to find himself demoted and exposed to waivers. An ignominious fate, to be sure.

Lind might not keep up his current pace - .418 OBP, .540 SLG - as his .391 BABIP seems unsustainably high. But his walk rate is up impressively to 12.2%, over rates of 6.2%, 5.9% and 8.2% over the past three seasons. He's also dropped his strikeout rate down to 16.9%, which is not bad for a power hitting

And to the eye - well, my eye, anyways - Lind's swing looks vastly improved over recent years, as he is back to uncoiling his body through the swing and getting torque from a decent rotation of his hips, rather than the vacant, all-arms swipes of recent memory.

If nothing else, this seasons has certainly complicated the question of what the Jays do with Lind and his three club options for 2014 through 2016.

Catcher Controversy?: The two-guys-one-job discussion is ubiquitous among the sports-talk chattering class, and in large part, these so-called controversies make for easily digestible stories. There are winners and losers. It's binary, and you get to play both sides while urging fans to choose one or the other.

So forgive me if I indulge for a moment in that which I hold in disdain.

The Jays decision last week to bring Josh Thole to the Majors was swiftly followed by speculation as to when he might supplant the struggling J.P. Arencibia as the everyday catcher. And the contrast between the two couldn't be more stark.

In his better moments, Thole is a patient hitter who will get on base (.330 career OBP), take walks (9.1% BB rate) and not strike out too much (12.3% K rate). He'll also not hit the ball very hard (.071 isolated power). Arencibia makes a lot of outs (.267 OBP), strikes out a ton (29% K rate) and walks only on special occasions (5.5% career walk rate, which has steadily declined from his 7.4% rate from his first full season.) Still, Arencibia can smack a tater. A .211 isolated power and .431 SLG are not to be dismissed out of hand.

Toss all those numbers into a big pile, and you can understand how people would divide themselves into two camps. Fewer outs! More dingers! Less slap hitters! More dingers!

Oddly, for the catching position, there isn't a lot of discussion around the relative levels of defensive acumen among these two. Maybe it's because neither are particularly exceptional behind the plate, nor are they wholly awful.

Up until the last game played in Chicago, I might have suggested that Arencibia is unlikely to lose much playing time to Thole given what I perceive to be an undying mancrush that John Gibbons seemed to have on J.P.. All of those at bats in hitting third, fourth or fifth in the order must have come from some level of irrational affection, right?

But seeing JPA plugged into the seven-hole in the lineup - against a lefty, no less - makes me wonder if his last 20 games and 99 plate appearances have been bad enough to take the bloom off the rose. A .202 OBP with 29 strikeouts versus four walks will do that.

Arencibia is likely to remain the incumbent in the coming months, but don't be surprised to see Thole get starters against right-handers with decent breaking balls. And if he succeeds? Well, then we might have a real discussion on our hands for 2014.

And one last note to ponder: Thole is signed to a two-year deal that pays him $1.25 million per year, while Arencibia makes $505,000 and hits arbitration after this season. Which might make this somewhat contrived controversy a little more real by the time we get to the trade deadline.

Programming note: If you want to take me to task on either of today's whims, or just want to discuss the state of the Blue Jays, I'll be chatting on Sportsnet.ca tomorrow at 12:00 noon Eastern Time. Come on by and let me know about the bee in your ballcap.

37 Jays in 37ish Days: Josh Thole Can Catch the Knuckleball. Maybe.

Who: Number 30, Josh Thole. Catcher. Bats left. Throws right. Catches knuckleballs (maybe). 26 years old. 6'1", 215 lbs.

Provenance: Breese, Illinois. Drafted in the 13th round of the 2005 amateur by the New York Mets. Acquired by Toronto from the Mets on December 17th, 2012 along with a mess o’ players in exchange for Travis d’Arnaud, Noah Syndergaard, John Buck, a minor leaguer and a $10 gift card for a coffee and donut chain.

Contract Status: Avoided arbitration with a two-year deal worth $2.5 million, with an option for 2015. Has minor-league options remaining.

Top Line Numbers: 308 games played in four seasons with the Mets. .331 OBP, .333 SLG, 7 HRs in 1026 plate appearances. Strikes out 12.4% of the time, walks 9.1% of the time.

2012 Stats: .294 OBP, .290 SLG in 354 plate appearances (104 games). Career high strikeout rate (14.1 %) and walk rate of 7.6%.

Injury History: Missed 24 days with a concussion in 2012 following a home plate collision with Ty Wigginton. Posted .273 OBP/.263 SLG in 262 PAs after the injury.

Looking Back: Josh Thole spent much of last season serving as the personal catcher for R.A. Dickey, so one would have to imagine that his value behind the plate would make him that much more of an asset to the Jays this season. The assumption being that because Thole HAS caught the knuckleball, he CAN catch the knuckleball reliably.

A few weeks back, I made that assumption myself when poo-pooing the notion that Henry Blanco might be the backup catcher to start the season. Blanco? What is this...2003? Did we acquire Greg Maddux when no one was looking? And can that guy even catch a floater? And he didn't even get a multi-year deal, so...duh.

It turns out that Blanco can catch the knuckler, and Dickey stated that he worked as well with the veteran as anyone. Meanwhile, Thole leads MLB in passed balls over the past three seasons with 38, including 18 last year. Bob Uecker's clever lines aside, a passed ball is not a wild pitch, and one would figure that any number of other catchers could chase Dickey's premium offerings to the backstop if given the chance.

There are parts of Josh Thole's game that are admirable. He generally has a decent walk rate, doesn't strike out too much, and hits the ball to all fields when he's right. His performance at the plate last year was subpar even by the relatively low standards applied to part-time catchers, but a charitable person might assume that the concussion he suffered blocking the plate might have affected his play for the balance of the schedule.

From 2009 to 2011, Thole was good for a .350 OBP and a .707 OPS in 672 plate appearances. Over his first three seasons, J.P. Arencibia managed a .708 OPS in 895 PAs, but with a .275 OBP. Yes, dingers are nice and slap hitters are frustrating. But making outs is the worst thing of all.

Looking Ahead: While the Blue Jays have evolved into big payroll team, controlling assets remains an issue. Yes, Josh Thole has a new deal, but he also has options, which weighs heavily against him in the battle for a roster spot this spring.

Mind you, there's a lot that happens to catchers in the run of a week, and a ding or crack or ouchie here or there will allow Thole to slide onto the roster if either Arencibia or Blanco can't answer the bell once the real games start. Otherwise, he'll likely be in Buffalo for the bulk of 2012.

The big question will be whether if Thole can regain his previous offensive form to such a degree that it will make up for his lack of power and his deficiencies behind the plate.

Optimistically: Thole comes back from a down year and posts a good OBP in Buffalo, eventually working his way into 150-200 plate appearances in the Majors by season's close.

Pessimistically: He posts decent numbers against righties in the International League, but backslides into a role as a no-power, slap-hitting, weak-gloved backup-to-the-backup catcher.