37 Jays - Josh Johnson: Which J.J. Will the Jays Get?

Who: Josh Johnson. Right-handed starting pitcher. Bats left. Six-foot-seven, 250 pounds. Twenty-nine years old.

Provenance: Born in Minneapolis. Went to high school in and around Tulsa Oklahoma.

(Pause while I go listen to Don Williams' "Tulsa Time", which is a great song. Sorry. Onward.)

Selected in the fourth round of the 2002 amateur draft by the Florida Marlins. Made his major league debut at the age of 21 on September 10, 2005.

Contract Status: Entering the final season of a four-year, $39 million contract. Will earn $13.75 million in base salary this season. Bonus clauses include $1 million payout if he is named World Series MVP and $500,000 for winning the Cy Young.

Back of the Baseball Card: 3.15 ERA in 916.2 innings pitched in eight seasons, all with the Marlins. Struck out 21.9% of batters (8.17 per nine)  and walked 8.1 % (3.02) in 154 games pitched, including 144 starts. Two-time All-Star, finished fifth in Cy Young voting in 2010.

2012 Stats: Started 31 games for the Marlins, posting a 3.81 ERA in 191.1 innings. Struck out 20.7% of batters (7.76 per nine) and walked 8.2% (3.06). Worth 3.8 wins above replacement according to Fangraphs, 3.1 per Baseball Reference and 3.0 per Baseball Prospectus.   

2012 Repertoire, as per Brooks Baseball: Four seam fastball (51%, 93.5 MPH average); Slider (24%, 87.5 MPH), Curve (16%, 79.1 MPH). Changeup (5%, 87.8 MPH); Sinker (4%, 93.0 MPH).

Recent Injury History: Started only nine games at the start of 2011, before being sidelined with shoulder inflammation. Had previously missed the final month of 2010 with the same ailment. Had Tommy John Surgery in August, 2007.

Looking Back: Josh Johnson's 2012 season was one of the more scrutinized returns from injury in recent years.

After a remarkable 2010 season in which he won the NL ERA title (2.30), Johnson was set up to be one of the premier power pitchers in the game. He was building on that success admirably in early  2011 when his shoulder went awry, though the extent of the injury took a painfully long time to sort out. Though his last start was in May, he wasn't officially shut down until almost two months later.

That frustrating delay had fans watching throughout 2012 with a high level of trepidation. His fastball velocity, which dropped by more than two miles per hour from its 2010 levels (95.6 MPH), remained under constant scrutiny. A predictable mid-season dip in his fastball velocity raised alarms, but by the final starts of the season in September, he had begun to regain a couple of clicks on the pitch.

Also notable in Johnson's 2012 season is the increased use of a curveball. According to the Brooks Baseball database, he didn't throw a single curve in 2010, relying almost entirely on a four-seam/slider arsenal in that season.

For the most part, Johnson's peripheral numbers came back to their historical levels last season, though his inflated ERA is likely due to an uptick in his homer-to-flyball ratio. At 8.4%, last year's mark was double that of his 2010 season (4.2%, if you needed the math guidance), and marginally higher than his career mark (7.2%). 

Looking Ahead: Johnson certainly benefited from playing in home parks that were sympathetic to pitchers through his first eight seasons.

He's held the opposition to a .623 OPS against between ProPlayer/Sun Life Stadium and the new Marlins Park, while putting up a still decent .692 OPS on the road. Still, he's never pitched in his career at Yankee Stadium or Fenway Park, so it will be interesting to see how the fun house atmosphere of those bizarro parks.

On the other hand, a pitcher who can miss a lot of bats can help to neutralize the effects of hitters parks.And thus far in the completely meaningless fake games of spring, Johnson has done a pretty snazzy job of sending batters back to the bench with their lumber in their hands, unscathed by leather. In his first four games, Johnson fanned 11 in 10.2 innings without walking a batter.

It might not be enough to proclaim that the fearsome hurler is back to his best form, but it's a nice sign in a spring that has elicited more than its share of caveats for poor performance by potential starting pitchers.

And since we're indulging in hoary old saws, it certainly bears mentioning that this is a contract year for Josh Johnson. It seems as though it is a long shot that the Jays will keep him in the longer term, but the question remains as to whether a great performance by JJ in the first four months will make him indispensable for the stretch run, or a key trade chip by the end of July.

 Pessimistically: The deeper lineups of the American League make life more challenging for Johnson, bumping his ERA up and leaving him to minimize the damage from the fly balls that become dingers in some AL East parks. Shoulder/back/bunion pain (or what have you) undermines his season.

Optimistically: Regains his strength, while adding the wisdom and guile of age to his game. Asserts himself as a legitimate ace. Dominates in big games. 

37 Jays - Recasting Brett Cecil

Who: Brett Aarion Cecil. Sport goggle aficionado. Left-handed pitcher, most recently in a relief role. Six-foot-one, with a weight listed at 215 pounds, though that is a moving target. Jersey number 27, age 26.

Provenance: Dunkirk, Maryland. Selected with the 38th pick overall of the 2007 amateur draft by the Blue Jays out of the University of Maryland. Made his major league debut less than two years later, on May 5, 2009.

Contract Status: No contract signed for 2013 as of yet. Is out of minor league options. First year of arbitration eligibility is next season.

Back of the Baseball Card: 4.79 ERA in 451.0 innings pitched over four seasons and 87 games, including 74 starts.  Struck out 16.6 % of batters (6.47 per nine)  and walked 8.1 % (3.13).

2012 Stats: Pitched 21 games for the Blue Jays, including nine starts. Posted a 5.71 ERA, striking out 18.9 % of batters (7.48 per nine) and walked 8.5 % (3.38). In 15 starts between Double-A New Hampshire and Triple-A Las Vegas, posted a 2.95 ERA in 82.1 innings with 67 strikeouts and 21 walks.  

2012 Repertoire, as per Brooks Baseball: Four seam fastball (33%, 89.8 MPH average); Curve (22%, 79.3 MPH). Cutter (14%, 85.7 MPH); Changeup (14%, 82.5 MPH); Sinker (11%, 88.5 MPH); Slider (5%, 82.2 MPH).

Recent Injury History: Nursed a groin injury for two months of 2012 in the minors. Injured pitching hand cleaning a blender in 2011. Had a case of the dead arm in late 2010.

Looking Back: There are few players who are more confusing to evaluate than Cecil. For a few moments, Cecil was the Jays' best pitching prospect, and seemed to solidify a role in the rotation after a solid 2010 season: 4.22 ERA, 117 Ks and 54 BBs in 172.2 innings...and a 15-7, if that's your style.

If you were paying attention closely in the final months of the 2010 season, though, there were signs of the struggles that were to come. Cecil was shelved for a week with arm fatigue, and saw his fastball velocity drop off by a couple of miles per hour. In the moment, you could have written it off as a typical late season lag, but in the ensuing two years, that velocity never really returned.

With less heat behind his pitches, Cecil's homer-to-flyball ratio exploded from a very respectable 8.7% to 13.3% in 2011 and 14.5% in 2012. Couple this with a simultaneous rise in his fly ball rate - perhaps as a result of a less effective sinker? - and you see a rapid decline from a pitcher with peripherals that were tenuously those of a major league starter.

Towards the end of 2012, Cecil re-emerged in a return to the bullpen. With less of a workload per outing, Cecil seemingly felt free to let fly in his short stints, and his fastball velocity in September popped back up above 92 MPH.   

One other odd note about Cecil in 2012: He has seemingly abandoned his slider, choosing to go with a curveball as his breaking pitch of choice. Throughout his emergence through the Jays' system, Cecil's slider was always the breaking pitch that was mentioned in the shorthand analyses of his arsenal, but by September of last season, he had seemingly stripped it out of his game, tossing the pitch just three times in 12 appearances at the end of last year.

Looking Ahead: A closer in college, the Jays spent much of the past five years stretching him out to make use of his expansive repertoire. Now, his best hopes to stick on the big league roster - and indeed, with the organization - come as he shifts back to the bullpen.

The Jays find themselves in a position where they have a fair bit of left-handed pitching that can step into the big league club's bullpen. In the pecking order of bullpen southpaws, Cecil will enter the season behind Darren Oliver and slightly ahead of Aaron Loup based on the latter having options remaining. Later in the season, Luis Perez will re-enter this crowded situation if his recovery from a July 2012 Tommy John procedure is successful.

Given that competition, Cecil will need to be something more than a middling middle-reliever to retain his spot on the roster.

Pessimistically: Cecil's homer rates continue to rise, and he shifts to the back of a smaller bullpen. And when you start to back yourself out on a plank like that, it isn't long before you realize suddenly how short it really is.

Optimistically: A more focused approach and the return of some velocity makes Cecil a reliable option to quell mid-game rallies. Pitches well enough to get a nice deal to buy out a few arbitration years.

37 Jays - Henry Blanco: The Last Squat of a Catch and Throw Guy

Who: Henry Ramon Blanco. Forty-one years young. Five-foot-eleven, 220 pounds. Catcher. Bats right-handed.

Provenance: Caracas, Venezuela. Signed by the Los Angeles Dodgers as an amateur free agent in 1989. Made his major-league debut with the Dodgers in July, 1997.
 
Contract Status: Joined the Blue Jays on a one-year, non-guaranteed deal worth $750,000 in January, 2013.
  
Back of the Baseball Card: Fifteen MLB seasons with the Dodgers, Rockies, Brewers, Braves, Twins, Cubs, Padres, Mets and Diamondbacks. Posted a .291 OBP and .367 slugging in 921 games played (2937 plate appearances). Hit 69 homers. Posted an 8.0 career WAR (as per Fangraphs) and 3.4 WARP (Baseball Prospectus). Strike out rate of 17.4 %, walk rate of 8.2 %.

2012 Stats: Played in 21 games for the D-Backs with a slash line of .224 OBP/.281 SLG in 67 plate appearances.  Strike out rate of 26.9%. Hit eight homers in 112 plate appearances in 2011 with Arizona.

Injury History: Had season-ending surgery last year year on his left thumb. Six DL stints in his career. A recurring problem with a herniated disc in his neck has kept sidelined him in 2007 and again in 2010.

Looking Back: The last time that Henry Blanco had something resembling an everyday job in the Majors was in 2004 with the Minnesota Twins. Which also coincides with the season in which Johan Santana won his first Cy Young Award. Just dropping that notion in there.

Since then, he's averaged 48 games and 148 games per season as a well-travelled backup. Along the way, he served as a personal catcher for Greg Maddux in his autumn years with the Cubs, and caught new Jay R.A. Dickey seven times in 2010 with the Mets.

Blanco's calling card is his catcher's mitt, but it can be difficult to evaluate it. We're in the nascent stages of the development of metrics to evaluate catchers' defensive value, but let's play along and look at Stolen Base Runs Saved (rSB). Since 2010, Blanco has caught 795.2 innings, and in that time, he's posted six runs saved by throwing out potential base stealers.

Not a bad number for a part-time player, considering Matt Wieters has posted 16 runs saved and Yadier Molina 14 over the same time period, but in more than six times as many innings. Meanwhile, J.P. Arencibia has posted a -8 in 1922.2 innings while Josh Thole has a -5 in 2059.0 innings caught.

Another defensive stat for catchers is RPP, which expresses how good a catcher is at blocking pitches though a runs above average measurement. In this stat, Blanco posts a 0.6 (29th among catchers with more than 700 innings caught since 2010), while Thole has a 1.4 (24th) and Arencibia has a -4.1 (52nd).

Looking Ahead: There's a notion that the relationship Blanco developed with Dickey in their brief time together  motivated the Jays to give the veteran a deal heading into camp. Dickey has told reporters that Blanco was the best catcher that he's worked with when it comes to catching the knuckleball, but following the knuckleballer's subsequent comments on the subject is a bit like...well, catching a knuckleball.

Just a week ago, Jays manager John Gibbons told reporters that immediately following the World Baseball Classic, the team would pick a personal catcher for their uncommon staff ace. But today, Dickey is quoted by the National Post's John Lott as saying that he's not particularly fussed by the question.

"It’s a non-issue, really … I’m comfortable with all of them, so it gives Gibby a lot of latitude to be able to put in there who he thinks is the best fit for that day," he said. (NatPost)

It's possible - if not likely - that Dickey is remaining somewhat cagey on this issue so as not to upset the apple cart with the long line of other catchers who might end up kneeling before him over the course of the season. With J.P. Arencibia, Josh Thole and even Mike Nickeas as other potential options before the year is out, one might suspect that Dickey would like to avoid publicly naming favourites this early in the year.

In the longer term, it's hard to imagine a scenario where Blanco continues to catch Dickey through this season and into the next one and through to the end of his deal. At some point, either Thole or Arencibia will be taking a regular turn behind the plate.

But in this "all-in" year, it's not a bad option to see if Blanco and Dickey can recapture the magic they made together in that handful of starts three seasons ago.

Pessimistically: Is a negative at the bottom of the batting order and does not do enough to help Dickey along to justify his presence. Is not a reliable option to give J.P. Arencibia regular rest. 

Optimistically: Makes beautiful music with Dickey. Becomes an invaluable tool for the pitching staff in the preparation before series. Holds his own at the plate. Hits a couple of taters.

37 Jays - The Outside Chance of Jeremy Jeffress

Who: Jeremy Jeffress. Right-handed relief pitcher. Six feet tall, 195 pounds. Jersey number 33.

Provenance: Born in South Boston, Virginia. Selected with the 16th pick overall of the 2006 amateur draft by the Milwaukee Brewers out of Halifax County (VA) High School. (No, really!)

Acquired: Purchased from the Kansas City Royals on November 8th, 2012 after being designated for assignment.

Contract Status: No contract signed for 2013 as of yet. Is out of minor league options.

Back of the Baseball Card: 4.89 ERA in 37 relief appearances (38.2 innings) over three seasons with the Brewers and the Royals. Struck out 18.7% of batters while walking 16.5%. In 151 minor league games (421 innings), struck out 10.0 batters per nine innings while walking 5.4 per nine.

2012 Stats: At Triple-A Omaha - so standard Pacific Coast League caveats apply - threw 58 innings over 37 games, posting a 4.97 ERA. Struck out 25.3% of batters while walking 10.4%. In 13 games with the Royals, walked 13 and struck out 13. (Symmetry!)

2012 Repertoire, as per Brooks Baseball: Four seam fastball (76%, 95.7 MPH average); Curve (20%, 79.9 MPH). Ten cutters (92.2 MPH) and four changeups (88.3 MPH) mixed in for good measure.

Recent Injury History: No previous injury history reported.

Looking Back: If you knew much or anything about Jeremy Jeffress before this offseason, it might have been for his inclusion in the trade that brought Zach Greinke to Milwaukee. If you're enough of a fantasy baseball geek, you may remember his name being tossed around as a potential future closer after a nice September callup in 2010.

Or, perhaps you saw his name drift across the newswire for his multiple suspensions for marijuana use. Those three formal admonishments now leave him in a situation where his next smoke will put him (so sorry for this) one toke over the line.

(Perhaps I'm indulging in cornball references to songs from the 1970's to get over the idea that someone could be suspended for life from baseball for smoking weed, while a long list of ballplayers face little or no repercussions for getting liquored up, stumbling into the driver's seat of their car and actually driving off in a stupor. It's so far beyond absurd that I'll never understand it.)

Setting the off-field matters aside, Jeffress is an intriguing player. He has shown tantalizing velocity throughout his development, regularly touching 99 MPH with his fastball. But while he has always been able to let it fly, he seemingly had little sense of where it was going once it left his hand.

If you wanted to add a sympathetic note to Jeffress' minor league résumé, you could point to the fact that he travelled the bumpy and inhospitable road through the Texas and Pacific Coast leagues after the trade from Milwaukee.

Few young pitchers make it through that path unscathed, and Jeffress' first exposure to those leagues saw his K/BB ratio shrink to 1.10 in 2011.Was he pitching around batters? Attempting to avoid contact? Whatever happened initially, he improved that same metric dramatically last season in his second go-round in those hitters' leagues, with a 2.46 mark. Not dazzling, but an improvement to be sure.

Looking Ahead: Jeffress will be hard-pressed to make the Blue Jays out of Spring Training, and until several readers asked for a preview piece on him, he wasn't even going to make the cut in this 37-part series.

Jeffress' profile is very similar to Esmil Rogers, another fireballing bullpen righty who is out of options, and without a number of injuries between now and Opening Day, it is hard to imagine both of them remaining a Blue Jay into April.

Through the first few weeks of pre-season action, both pitchers have struck out a lot of batters - 11.4 per nine for Jeffress, 12.9 for Rogers -  while keeping their walk totals reasonable: two walks each through 6.1 innings for Jeffress and five innings for Rogers. Both have given up a lot of hits - Jeffress: 6; Rogers: 7 - though the latter's hits seem a little more apt to leave the yard (three homers to one.)

But then, that's a tiny sliver of spring stats, to be taken with all the salt in the sea.

If it comes down to a choice between the two where the performance in the fake games of pre-spring create little separation, one wonders if the cost of the players might enter the equation. Rogers was the player that ultimately was the return for former manager John Farrell, while Jeffress was essentially a free pick up.

And while it might be unfair, the fact that Jeffress is so close to a lifetime ban might ultimately make him the more volatile asset. Which is terrible.


Pessimistically: Jeffress loses the handle in a couple of late spring games, and finds his way onto the waiver wire. Another team is certain to take a chance on him, given the opportunity.

Optimistically: Continues to show improvements in control, and ekes his way onto the April roster. Establishes himself as a solid middle reliever who can shut down a rally with a key strikeout.

37 Jays - Is Maicer Izturis Ready to Play Every Day?

Who: Maicer Izturis. 32 years old, though he looks about five years younger. Second baseman, shortstop, third baseman. Switch-hitter, throws right-handed. Five-foot-eight, 170 pounds. Will wear number 3 this year for the Blue Jays. Brother of Cesar Izturis.

Provenance: Barquisimeto, Venezuela. Signed by Cleveland as an amateur free agent in 1998. Made his major-league debut as a Montreal Expo in the twilight of their final season.

Contract Status: Joined the Blue Jays on a three-year, $10 million contract in November, 2012.
Back of the Baseball Card: Nine MLB seasons with the Expos and Angels. Posted a .337 OBP and .381 slugging in 791 games (2913 plate appearances). Stole 91 bases, hit 34 homers. Posted a 13.5 career WAR (as per Fangraphs) and 8.5 WARP (Baseball Prospectus). Strike out rate of 10.7%, walk rate of 8.2%.

2012 Stats: .320 OBP and .315 slugging in 100 games (319 plate appearances) with the Angels. Strike out rate of 11.9%, walk rate of 7.8%. Two homers, 11 doubles, 17 stolen bases.

Injury History: Nine separate DL stints in his career. Issues vary from knee and hamstring issues early in his career, thumb surgery that ended his 2008 season, and shoulder trouble that sidelined him and rendered him ineffective in 2010. Was mostly healthy last season, with the exception of a ribcage issue late in the season.

Looking Back: There was a brief moment in November - before the joyous tumult of the rapid roster reconstruction - when Maicer Izturis was sum total of the Blue Jays' offseason acquisitions.

At the time, it seemed like a tidy bit of business: A veteran with a lot of versatility around the field - and a switch hitter to boot - who could fill in around the infield. If you were feeling particularly happy in the moment, you might even imagine him replicating his 2009 season (.359 OBP/.434 SLG/3.4 fWAR). 

That season will likely go down as the high point in Izturis' career, but there's still value to be drawn from him in the later stages of his career. He's still a player who doesn't strike out a lot, makes lots of contact (89.5% of the time), and just two seasons ago stroked 35 doubles. 

In the field, Izturis has handled second, short and third with little fall off at any of the three positions. The Ultimate Zone Rating metric - as frustrating as it is - looks with a mostly kind eye on his work at third and second, while there seems to be a lot of noise in the measurement of his work at short (really high highs and weirdly low lows). If you step back from those numbers and couple an impressionistic approach with the eye test, Izturis seems to be an estimable defensive player wherever his glove is utilized.

Even with that defensive versatility, Izturis struggled to keep himself in the starting lineup over the past eight seasons with the Anaheim nine. When his performance was ascendant and he managed to eke his way into an everyday role, injuries would sidetrack him and he'd find his way back to a fill-in role.

Looking Ahead: The frequency with which Izturis has been hurt should be a concern, especially if you ponder the possibility of his production being on a downward trajectory in the next three seasons.

If his shoulder issues have robbed him of whatever marginal increments of power that he had in the first place, Izturis' bat might not be enough to keep him out of a bench role for a team that is intent on contending this year.

As a second baseman - and it increasingly looks as though his defense might win him the starting role there - Izturis rates close to the league average offensively. (The average output for second basemen in 2012 was .318 OBP/.383 SLG according the Baseball Reference.) With a little BABIP luck, he could hold his own at the bottom of the order simply by getting on base to be cashed in when the lineup turns over and the bigger bats come up.

Pessimistically: Injuries take him out of the lineup for significant portions of the season, and limit his effectiveness when he is able to play. Loses starting job, and spends more time as a defensive replacement.

Optimistically: Is healthy enough to find some of the doubles power he displayed in 2009 and 2011. Possibly moves his way up the lineup to the sixth or seventh spot. Locks down the second base job and holds on to it all year.

37 Jays in 37ish Days - The Oddly Brilliant if Overpriced Mark Buehrle

Who: Mark Buehrle. Number 56, left-handed starting pitcher. Big scary dog lover. Deceptively big boy: 6'2", 245 lbs.

Provenance: Born in St. Charles, Missouri, a half hour west of St. Louis. Drafted in the 38th round of the 1998 amateur draft by the Chicago White Sox out of Jefferson College.

Acquired: Acquired from the Miami Marlins as part of an 11-player deal in November, 2012.

Contract Status: Signed four-year, heavily back-loaded $58 million deal with Marlins before 2012. Is owed $11 million this season, as well as $18 million next year and $19 million in 2015.

Back of the Baseball Card: 3.82 ERA in 421 games (396 starts) over 12 seasons with the White Sox and one with the Marlins. Has thrown 2679 innings in his career, striking out 5.11 batters per nine (13.7%) and walked 2.03 per nine (5.4%).

2012 Stats: Buehrle gonna Buehrle. Threw over 200 innings (202.1) for the 12th straight season, posting a respectable 3.74 ERA in 31 starts. Struck out 5.56 per nine (15.1%) while walking 1.78 batters per nine (4.8%).

012 Repertoire, as per Brooks Baseball: Four seam fastball (29%, 85.7 MPH average); Changeup (26%, 78.8 MPH); Cutter (20%, 80.3 MPH); Sinker (14%, 85.1 MPH); Curve (11%, 71.8 MPH).

Recent Injury History: The personification of good health and reliability, Buehrle has yet to spend a day on the disabled list in his career. In twelve seasons. Let that sink in.

Looking Back: When the Marlins first signed Buehrle to his progressively costly four-year deal in the middle of their offseason splurge a year ago, the thought was that he was a very good pitcher but not worth that deal. And those last two years? Those were going to hurt. They might even be stuck with an untradeable asset in the end.

That's the nature of free agent contracts, though, and with the influx of new cash in the system, a bad deal or two can fit into a payroll without forcing a team into a hard or unpalatable decision.

Where this may become an issue is if Buehrle does not take to Toronto, especially in the absence of his family and beloved pit bulls. The option to separate himself from his family for the sake of their banned-in-Ontario terriers seems like one that will weigh on him personally, and it hardly seems like a tenable solution over the next three seasons.

On the other hand, even if the Jays were willing to move Buehrle for personal reasons, it seems unlikely that many teams would eat the last two years of his deal, much less give Toronto anything in return.

Looking Ahead: None of this speaks a word to Buehrle's performance. An efficient and reliable pitcher, Buehrle consistently wrings more than one would expect from an arsenal without much heat.

Essentially, he has thrived for more than a decade with the sort of stuff that gets Brett Cecil demoted. Where Buehrle succeeds is in his ability to throw all of his pitches for strikes, not allowing hitters to sit on a specific fastball or breaking ball.

Buehrle has also won four straight Gold Gloves, and does a nifty job of shutting down opponents' running games, allowing only five stolen bases in 2012 against three runners who were caught and four who were picked off.

There's a line of thought that the legendary speed with which Buehrle works - he's always among the league's five fastest workers - is the difference in keeping his own fielders on their toes while keeping opposing hitters off-balance. It's a notion that sounds a little hokey in this age of precise weights and measures. But the collection of skills that

Regardless: Buehrle's presence and the absence of Jason Frasor means that Jays fans might have an additional few hours of "me time" this summer. Use them as you will.

Pessimistically: Buerhle's return to the AL is inhospitable, especially in the funhouse ballparks in the Bronx in Boston. Misses his puppies, and hits the DL with a bruised heart. ERA finally matches his FIP, and bumps up over 4.40.

Optimistically: Keeps doing that thing he does, defying the odds, and math and nature. Makes 30+ starts and posts an ERA under 3.80 while providing sage counsel to Ricky Romero and Brett Cecil.

37 Jays in 37ish Jays - Colby Rasmus Is Running Out of Runway

Who: Number 28, Colby Rasmus. Centrefielder. Bats left. Throws left. 26 years old. 6’2”, 200 lbs. Lovely hair.

Provenance: Columbus, Georgia, U.S.A. Attended high school nearby in Seale, Alabama. Drafted in the first round (28th overall) of the 2005 amateur draft by the St. Louis Cardinals. Received $1 million signing bonus.

Acquired: Via trade on July 27, 2011 as part of a three-team deal with the Cardinals and White Sox. Many players were involved. But that's neither here nor there.

Contract Status: Avoided arbitration with a one-year, $4.675 million deal in January. The Blue Jays hold one more year of arbitration rights before Rasmus becomes a free agent the 2014 season.

Back of the Baseball Card: .313 OBP, .422 slugging in 571 games (2205 plate appearances) with St. Louis and Toronto. Hit 76 homers and stole 24 bags. Posted a 9.2 career WAR (as per Fangraphs) and 3.3 WARP (Baseball Prospectus). Strike out rate of 23.0%, walk rate of 8.9%.

2012 Stats: Set career high in games played (151), but career low in OBP (.289). His OPS of .689 was only fractionally better than his previous low of .688 posted in 2011. Matched career high in home runs (23). Walk rate of 7.5% was lowest since his rookie season. Struck out 23.8% of the time.

Injury History: Missed a few games with groin problems in 2012. His only DL stint over his career was a month in late 2011 with a wrist sprain, but he has a long list of minor boo-boos in recent years: Fingers, abdomen, leg, knee, ankle, foot.

Looking Back: Colby Rasmus has become a polarizing figure among Jays fans. Many casual observers wonder what the fuss was about this alleged blue chip prospect who strikes out too much and never seems to live up to the hype.

On the other hand, those who like Colby like him a lot. If you cut up the season into convenient slices, you can find moments where he looks like the emerging star who can provide very good defense and tear the cover off the ball at the plate.

For instance: If you take the 52 games from May 5th through to the All-Star break, Rasmus posted a .908 OPS (.352 OBP) with 13 homers and 14 doubles. He also lowered his strikeout rate to 16.7% over that period. He was exciting in much of that first half of the season, and a fan could start to dream on the idea that he was finding his footing. If only that was the end of the story.

Following the All-Star break, Rasmus fell off significantly, with an almost unfathomable .515 OPS through his final 66 games of the season. Part of that might have been due to extraordinary bad luck, as evidenced by his .227 BABIP post-break. But it seemed as though some of the improvements made in his swing and approach - the quicker, quieter swing and his daring proximity to the plate - went missing at times as he struggled down the stretch.

I hate the word "inconsistent", because it is entirely overused in sports talk. But Rasmus seems to tinker with his swing and approach and mindset so often that you never really know which player is about to step into the box on any given at bat.

Looking Ahead: One wonders if Rasmus heard Anthony Gose's footsteps behind him as they took they took their frigid tour of Western Canada this winter.

While Gose might have struggled in his first taste of the Majors, there's reason to believe that over a full season, he might be able to put up equivalent offensive value to Rasmus' while providing defense that is at least the equal if not better. You have to think that the Jays' brain trust will closely monitor  the return on their investment in Rasmus in 2013 with a view towards planning out the 2014 season.

And if we're talking about these players in econometric terms: Colby Rasmus is a volatile commodity. At Colby's best, it's hard to imagine anyone in the Jays' plans matching his dynamic offensive game. At his worst, he's a below-replacement-level centrefielder who might struggle to maintain his playing time on a team with more depth.

For those of us who genuinely like Rasmus, love watching him play and constantly hope for him to prove himself to the non-believers, this year could be agonizingly tense.

Pessimistically: Rasmus continues to hack away at the bottom of the order, doing little to keep his spot. He paves the way for a move out of Toronto to become someone else's reclamation project.

Optimistically: In a deeper lineup where he could have become a role player, Rasmus asserts himself as a significant bat in the middle of the lineup, posting an OPS over .800 with game-changing power.

37 Jays in 37ish Days: Yeah Yeah, I Wanna Loup, Baby

Who: Aaron Loup. Left-handed relief pitcher. 5'11", 205 lbs. 25 years old. Still listed with jersey number 62, though that seems like a number you give to non-roster invitees.

Provenance: Born in Raceland, Louisiana. An hour west of New Orleans. Drafted out of Tulane University in the ninth round of the 2009 amateur draft by the Blue Jays. Received a $100,000 signing bonus.

Contract Status: Contract purchased by the Blue Jays in July 2012. No contract for 2013 as of yet. Has accumulated 83 days of Major League service time. Remains under the Jays' control for the foreseeable future.

Back of the Baseball Card: A stellar 2.64 ERA in 33 relief appearances (30.2 innings). Struck out 18.0% of batters (6.16 per nine innings), walking just 1.7 % (0.59/9). Induces ground balls 55.4% of the time.
  
2012 Repertoire, as per Brooks Baseball: Sinker (77%, 92.29 MPH average); Curve (21%, 78.85 MPH); Changeup (2%, threw 12 in total, 83.27 MPH).

Recent Injury History: Missed two months with an unknown injury at the end of 2010, and started 2011 on the DL.

Looking Back: As far as surprises go, there are few in 2012 that were as unexpected or delightful as Aaron Loup. (Actually, there were few pleasant surprises at all in 2012, but let's not focus on that.)

Few would have imagined before the 2012 season that Loup would emerge to be named the Blue Jays' rookie of the year. But with the cavalcade of busted pitching limbs thrust him onto the roster and into the bullpen fire mid-way through last season.

It wasn't hard to like Loup when he appeared on the scene: A lefty who throws a hard sinker with a funky side arm delivery is as aesthetically pleasing as all get out. For an unheralded rookie, Loup's appearances became must-see events and high points of the latter stages of the season. His effectiveness was the delicious icing on the cake.

In terms of setting himself up for a future role as a bullpen southpaw, Loup did a great job of nullifying left-handed batters in his somewhat abbreviated first go-round. Of the 60 lefties he faced, he gave up just 12 hits, two doubles and one walk while striking out eleven. And while his numbers were slightly higher against righties (.268 OBP, .370 SLG), but he was still effective enough not to be immediately pigeon-holed into a LOOGY role just yet.

If there is a reason to pull back on the reins of our enthusiasm for Loup, it's the fact that not all of his minor league numbers necessarily point to this sort of success. He posted a 4.66 ERA in high-A Dunedin in 2011, and a 4.54 the previous season in low-A Lansing. Also, his big league BABIP of .277 seems likely to rise, with some of the other numbers sure to follow.

Still, his strikeout to walk ratios have been impressive enough to thing that he can miss bats and keep free runners off base.

Looking Ahead: As good as Loup was, he'll be hard-pressed to make his way into the 12-man bullpen that Manager John Gibbons says he'll carry to start the season.

Gibby has pledged not to weigh player options into his considerations of who makes the team out of spring training...but with Darren Oliver being a lock - barring injury - and Brett Cecil out of options, it creates a very narrow opportunity for Loup at the outset of 2013.

On the other hand, depth is a beautiful problem to have, and Loup is well-positioned to slide into the first available slot in the bullpen, whether if it opens in March or April. And those slots always do. 

Pessimistically: Comes back to reality to become. Spends time in Buffalo and serves as a depth arm at the bottom of the pen's pecking order. Is still forced to carry the Dora the Explorer backpack filled with candy.

Optimistically: Maintains something close to last year's performance, and is relied on in high-leverage situations to snuff out rallies and befuddle lefties. Develops a cult following. Gets a lower jersey number.

37 Jays in 37ish Days - Darren Oliver and that Old Black Magic

Who: Number 38, Darren Oliver. Left-handed relief pitcher. 6'2", 200 lbs. 42 years old.

Provenance: Born in Kansas City. Graduated from Rio Lindo, California. Up Sacramento Way. Drafted in the third round of the 1988 amateur draft by the Texas Rangers.

Acquired: Signed as a free agent by the Blue Jays in January, 2012.

Contract Status: Blue Jays exercised his $3 million club option in October of 2012. Hilarity ensued. Free agent after 2013 season.

Back of the Baseball Card: 4.53 ERA in 716 games over 19 seasons with Texas, St. Louis, Texas, Boston, Colorado, Florida, Houston, the Mets, Angels, Texas (yup) and Toronto. 1866.2 innings pitched. Stuck out 5.88 batters per nine (15%) and walked 3.40 (8.7%)

2012 Stats: Continued his late career resurgence with a 2.06 ERA in 62 games (56.2 innings), marking the sixth consecutive season he lowered his ERA. Struck out 23.5% of batters faced (8.26 per nine innings) and walked 6.8 % (2.38).

012 Repertoire, as per Brooks Baseball: Four seam fastball (59%, 88.6 MPH average); Curve (24%, 76.12 MPH); Sinker (16%, 89.41 MPH); Changeup (threw 12 all year, 83.68 MPH).

Recent Injury History: Missed a month or so in 2004m and had a 15 day DL stint in 2009. Nothing since. Tommy John Surgery in May of 1991.

Looking Back: It's probably unfair that the memory of Darren Oliver that most Jays fans will carry in to the 2013 season is of the offseason contract communications snafus that became fodder for a few weeks.

It was certainly confusing, and many nasty things were hurled in the direction of the mostly affable middle-reliever. If nothing else, it reminded us of the existence of Jeff Frye. It probably also took some of the shine off that time he hit for the cycle.

Regardless, one would be hard-pressed to quibble with the results that he produced in 2012. Oliver was nasty against all hitters, stranding 84.8% of runners and holding batters to a .213 batting average against.

Oliver was tough on lefties, holding them to a .314 OBP and .330 slugging, but he was even tougher against righties (.252 OBP and a minuscule .262 slugging.)

Looking Ahead: It's hard to resist all of old saws about the value of veteran leadership. Given that Oliver had his ulnar collateral ligament swapped out when Marcus Stroman was five weeks old, one would think he has some perspective on the game to share to two generations of ballplayers coming through Toronto.

Moreover, Oliver made playoff appearances in six straight seasons from 2006 through 2011, so the hope would be that he could provide some ballast when the tides of the season begin to toss the good ship Blue Jays about.

But the expectations on Oliver are - and should be - far more tangible than that. He's not just a cheerleader playing out the string, and to compete in what will be an extraordinarily tight American League this season, the Jays need him to maintain his current streak as one of the most quietly effective relievers in baseball.

Pessimistically: This is the season when time and age finally catch up with Oliver, and maybe he becomes a decent left-handed specialist.The Jays might need to manage his workload to get him through the season.

Optimistically: Posts a sub-2.00 ERA, pitches some of the most important high-leverage innings down the stretch in the midst of a pennant chase.

37 Jays in 37ish Days - Learning to Accept Brad Lincoln

Who: Brad Lincoln. Right-handed pitcher. 27 years-young, 6'0", 210 lbs. Wears number 49. Also, goofy necklaces.

Provenance: Lake Jackson, Texas. Which is in the general area of Houston, if you were wondering. Drafted out of the University of Houston with the fourth pick of the 2006 amateur draft by the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Acquired: Traded by the Pirates to the Blue Jays in exchange for Travis Snider on July 30th. Sadness and recriminations followed.

Contract Status: Not yet signed for 2013, though that's a formality. Jays control Lincoln for this year, and hold four more years of arbitration rights after this season.

Back of the Baseball Card: 4.78 ERA in 188 innings pitched through three partial seasons with the Pirates and Jays. 75 games pitched, including 22 starts. Strikes out 17.5% of batters he faces (6.79 per nine innings) and walks 6.8% (2.63).

2012 Stats: Posted a 2.73 ERA in 59.1 innings (28 games, five starts) with the Pirates, and a 5.65 ERA with the Jays in 28.2 innings (24 games, all in relief.) Overall, struck out 24.3% (9.0 per 9) and walked 6.6 % (2.45).

2012 Repertoire, as per Brooks Baseball: Four seam fastball (59%, 94.2 MPH average); Curve (32%, 83.9 MPH); Sinker (4%, 93.0 MPH); Changeup (4%, 86.2 MPH).

Injury History: Missed all of 2007 following Tommy John surgery. Missed half of 2011 after being hit by a batted ball in spring training. Missed most of training camp in 2012 with knee and lower leg injuries.

Looking Back: For someone who was a Travis Snider loyalist through to the bitter end, it was always going to be hard to accept the presence of Brad Lincoln on the Jays roster.

A failed starter and iffy reliever who had eked out a few good weeks seemed like a poor return in exchange for the years of pining that many had invested in the man they call Lunchbox. But with additional distance from the trade - and a lower level of pressure thanks to Snider's middling performance in Pittsburgh - we can gamely evaluate Lincoln on his own merits.

Lincoln hardly wowed the Blue Jays faithful after the trade, and the most vivid memory of his time with the team might be the six-hit, six-run boot-stomping he took at the hands of the Rays on September 22nd of last. In what was a depressingly lost season at that point, you would have been hard pressed to recall an inning where a Jays pitcher was hit harder.

One bad outing does not a season make, but unlike fellow acquisition Steve Delabar, there were not enough high points or impressive outings in August or September to give fans much to anticipate for the coming season.

On a more sympathetic note, a mitigating factor that has popped up after reviewing some of the old chatter around Lincoln from his Pirates days is the impact of the tinkering to his delivery that was done by former pitching coach Joe Kerrigan in 2010. Lincoln had been posting a decent-if-unspectacular season at Triple-A Indianapolis, but after his June summoning to the Bucs and Kerrigan's tutelage, he lost about six miles per hour on his fastball and was crushed by Major League hitters. Kerrigan was shown the door in mid-season, immediately following the demotion of Lincoln.

Does that mean that Lincoln was permanently damaged by a bad tweak? No, it doesn't, but if you were looking to find a ray of hope, maybe you could convince yourself that he just needed to shake off the ill effects of some early failure.

Looking Ahead: The Blue Jays have begun the season with the notion of Lincoln returning to the starting rotation. It's not a bad bet at all on their part given the gap that they need to bridge between their emergency replacements at the high levels of the minors and the prospects who are remain several years away.

Stretching Lincoln out and having him serve as a mid-rotation option in Buffalo gives the organization an opportunity to see if he may yet be able to fit into that role in the Majors. Even if he might have had success in the bullpen in the short term, Lincoln's value increases exponentially as a reliable fourth or fifth starter down the road.

Even if the Jays' needs dictate that he eventually returns to a bullpen role, it's better to have him stretched out from the outset rather than attempting to improvise mid-season.

Pessimistically: Does not impress enough to push himself into the picture. Remains a Triple-A depth arm next year, and a possible non-tender candidate by the end of the year.

Optimistically: Recaptures some of what made him a top prospect for several years. Performs well in Triple-A and establishes himself as the seventh starting pitcher in the Jays' depth chart. Holds his own when call upon.

37 Jays in 37ish Days: Adam Lind and the End of the Line

Adam Lind, in happier times.

Who: Number 26, Adam Lind. Designated hitter/First Baseman. Bats left. Throws left. 29 years old. 6’2”, 210 lbs. One-time Silver Slugger recipient. Whipping boy. Someone to despise.

Provenance: Anderson, Indiana. Drafted by Toronto in the third round of the 2004 amateur draft out of the University of South Alabama.

Contract Status: In the final year of a four-year, $18 million contract. Blue Jays hold options for 2014, 2015 and 2016. It’s hard to imagine those options getting picked up.

Top Line Numbers: .316 OBP, .460 SLG in 2887 plate appearances over 714 games with the Blue Jays. Isolated power of .194, with 117 home runs. Strike out rate of 19.3%, walk rate of 6.7%.

2012 Stats: .314 OBP, .414 slugging in 353 plate appearances over 93 games with the Jays. Demoted to Triple-A Las Vegas on May 17th in favour of Yan Gomes.

Injury History: Missed a month in 2012 with a back strain and a month in 2011 with back spasms.

Looking Back: According to Fangraphs, there are 39 players who are identified at first basemen and who have enough at bats to qualify for rate stats in the years from 2010 through 2012.

Among those players, Adam Lind ranks 39th in on-base percentage (.296). This goes along with a 38th place ranking in wins above replacement (-0.2), 36th in walk rate (6.6%) and 26th in strikeout rate (20.7%).

Regardless of who was in his ear, or how confused he became when asked to hold more than one thought in his head at a time, Adam Lind has been one of the worst first basemen/designated hitters in baseball in the years following his breakout season in 2009.

It’s painful to make a statement like that, because cruelty is not our bag. There aren’t many defenders for Adam Lind left around Toronto, and even those who chose to take up his cause do so with the most vague and tepid arguments in his favour. The notion being that if he’s healthy and locked in, he’ll be okayish again. Sorta. Maybe.

Lind has had moments where he tore up the league, although even those are deceiving. People will point to his return to the lineup in June of 2011, when he was the hottest hitter in the league, belting seven homers in two weeks. But all seven of those homers came against the Orioles and the Royals, two of the weaker pitching teams in the league that year.

Looking Ahead: It seems as though Jays fans have been saying this for years, but this really is the end for Adam Lind. There’s no years left on the contract. Only options left to be bought out now. With a team that takes itself seriously as a contender, it’s hard to imagine them giving a prime spot in their lineup to an underperforming asset.

Is it possible that this time – after all the other times – that Adam Lind finally does something to keep his job? It’s a remote possibility, but his success probably depends as much on how he’s used as on his own performance. Could he be passable as a platoon DH who doesn’t face lefties and hits further down in the order? It’s possible, but to call that success is to grade on a generous curve.

Last year at this time, the assessment of Lind in this preview series was thus: We hate to say a player is on his last chance, because we pride ourselves on not giving into the impatient hyperbole of fandom. But with a team that should be headed towards a Wild Card playdown within the next two seasons, Lind will either need to assert himself or move on. 

It’s funny how little has changed over the past year. At this point, Lind’s poor performance is a perpetual problem for the franchise, and one that has become a tiresome point of discussion.

There’s only so much tar and so many feathers.

Pessimistically: Maintains the same level of performance as in recent years, while injuries to other key hitters magnify his role in the offense.

Optimistically: Holds his own in a platoon role. Posts an OBP above .330 and slugs .500 while being shielded from left-handed pitchers.

37 Jays in 37ish Days - Are Happ-less Days Here to Stay?

Who: J.A. Happ. Number 38. Left-handed pitcher. Starter? Maybe. Reliever? Sometimes. 6’6”, 195 lbs. 30 years old.

Provenance: Peru. (Illinois, that is.) Drafted in the 3rd round of the 2004 amateur draft out of Northwestern University.

Acquired: Came to the Blue Jays in the massive mid-season deal with the Houston Astros on July 20, 2012.

Contract Status: Avoided arbitration with a one-year, $3.7 million deal. Has minor league options remaining.

Back of the Baseball Card: Six seasons with Philadelphia, Houston and Toronto. 116 games (96 starts), 590 innings. 4.19 ERA, 1.39 WHIP. Strikes out 7.6 hitters per nine innings, walks 3.94.

2012 Stats: 28 games (24 starts) between Houston and Toronto. 144.2 innings, 4.79 ERA. Struck out 8.96 per nine, walked 3.48.

2012 Repertoire, as per Brooks Baseball: Four-seam fastball (91.2 MPH average) thrown on 48% of pitches. Also uses sinker (16%, 90.9 MPH), cutter (14%, 84.4 MPH), curve (11%, 77.7), and change (11%, 83.1 MPH)

Injury History: Missed the last month of 2012 with a broken foot. Also missed three months of 2010 with a left forearm strain.

Looking Back: By the time J.A. Happ arrived in Toronto last July, most Jays fans had just about abandoned hope on the season. The outrageous misfortune that befell the pitching staff left the team in such a state that Happ’s appearance seemed like disaster relief as much as anything else.

Oddly, the Jays brain trust immediately shoved him into a bullpen role, figuring that they’d rather see more starts from Aaron Laffey, Brett Cecil and the decaying corpse of Ricky Romero and his frayed left arm. After pushing the issue with the square-jawed chief-in-charge, Happ eventually wedged his way into the rotation, and the results were respectable if not spectacular (4.59 ERA, 39 Ks/12 BBs in 33 innings.)

Ultimately, though, no Jays pitcher could escape the grim hand of injury last season, and Happ eventually succumbed to a nasty break on his planting foot, resulting in his missing the balance of the season.

At his best last season, Happ showed what a decent left-handed starter with a dash of heat could bring to the table. Successive starts in August against a tough Texas lineup and a decent Tigers lineup featured Happ pounding the zone with strikes, fanning eight and seven batters respectively while limiting each team to an earned run. Yes, it’s a minute sample, but it showed that in flashes, he is more than a Quad-A or replacement-level starter.

Looking Ahead: It’s probably an exercise in narrative-building to say that the missed time at the end of the season led to Happ falling out of the Jays’ 2013 plans, even if that’s where our lesser instincts are pushing at this moment. It’s might be more fair to say that even in a rotation that hadn’t added three legitimate starters in the offseason, Happ would be a fringy candidate for the rotation at best.

At the same time, he wasn’t handed almost $4 million simply to enhance the entertainment value of the Buffalo Bisons this season. Given the injury histories of Romero, Brandon Morrow and Josh Johnson, the sixth or seventh starter needs to be a player who can legitimately step in and hold his own, especially in a season where this team fancies itself as a legitimate contender.

Happ’s role will be a thankless one in 2013. It’s doubtful that many will be happy to see him whenever he eventually gets the call. But he’s a very respectable option should the Blue Jays need reinforcements for any stretch of the coming season.

Pessimistically: Happ flounders in Buffalo, and falls behind Brad Lincoln or Chad Jenkins in the pecking order for emergency rotation slots.

Optimistically: Pitches well enough when called upon that the Jays have a legitimate pitching asset come the trade deadline.

37 Jays in 37ish Days: Josh Thole Can Catch the Knuckleball. Maybe.

Who: Number 30, Josh Thole. Catcher. Bats left. Throws right. Catches knuckleballs (maybe). 26 years old. 6'1", 215 lbs.

Provenance: Breese, Illinois. Drafted in the 13th round of the 2005 amateur by the New York Mets. Acquired by Toronto from the Mets on December 17th, 2012 along with a mess o’ players in exchange for Travis d’Arnaud, Noah Syndergaard, John Buck, a minor leaguer and a $10 gift card for a coffee and donut chain.

Contract Status: Avoided arbitration with a two-year deal worth $2.5 million, with an option for 2015. Has minor-league options remaining.

Top Line Numbers: 308 games played in four seasons with the Mets. .331 OBP, .333 SLG, 7 HRs in 1026 plate appearances. Strikes out 12.4% of the time, walks 9.1% of the time.

2012 Stats: .294 OBP, .290 SLG in 354 plate appearances (104 games). Career high strikeout rate (14.1 %) and walk rate of 7.6%.

Injury History: Missed 24 days with a concussion in 2012 following a home plate collision with Ty Wigginton. Posted .273 OBP/.263 SLG in 262 PAs after the injury.

Looking Back: Josh Thole spent much of last season serving as the personal catcher for R.A. Dickey, so one would have to imagine that his value behind the plate would make him that much more of an asset to the Jays this season. The assumption being that because Thole HAS caught the knuckleball, he CAN catch the knuckleball reliably.

A few weeks back, I made that assumption myself when poo-pooing the notion that Henry Blanco might be the backup catcher to start the season. Blanco? What is this...2003? Did we acquire Greg Maddux when no one was looking? And can that guy even catch a floater? And he didn't even get a multi-year deal, so...duh.

It turns out that Blanco can catch the knuckler, and Dickey stated that he worked as well with the veteran as anyone. Meanwhile, Thole leads MLB in passed balls over the past three seasons with 38, including 18 last year. Bob Uecker's clever lines aside, a passed ball is not a wild pitch, and one would figure that any number of other catchers could chase Dickey's premium offerings to the backstop if given the chance.

There are parts of Josh Thole's game that are admirable. He generally has a decent walk rate, doesn't strike out too much, and hits the ball to all fields when he's right. His performance at the plate last year was subpar even by the relatively low standards applied to part-time catchers, but a charitable person might assume that the concussion he suffered blocking the plate might have affected his play for the balance of the schedule.

From 2009 to 2011, Thole was good for a .350 OBP and a .707 OPS in 672 plate appearances. Over his first three seasons, J.P. Arencibia managed a .708 OPS in 895 PAs, but with a .275 OBP. Yes, dingers are nice and slap hitters are frustrating. But making outs is the worst thing of all.

Looking Ahead: While the Blue Jays have evolved into big payroll team, controlling assets remains an issue. Yes, Josh Thole has a new deal, but he also has options, which weighs heavily against him in the battle for a roster spot this spring.

Mind you, there's a lot that happens to catchers in the run of a week, and a ding or crack or ouchie here or there will allow Thole to slide onto the roster if either Arencibia or Blanco can't answer the bell once the real games start. Otherwise, he'll likely be in Buffalo for the bulk of 2012.

The big question will be whether if Thole can regain his previous offensive form to such a degree that it will make up for his lack of power and his deficiencies behind the plate.

Optimistically: Thole comes back from a down year and posts a good OBP in Buffalo, eventually working his way into 150-200 plate appearances in the Majors by season's close.

Pessimistically: He posts decent numbers against righties in the International League, but backslides into a role as a no-power, slap-hitting, weak-gloved backup-to-the-backup catcher.

37 Jays in 37ish Days - Esmil Rogers: Unwilling Victim of Corporate Synergy Jokes

A note from the Blogger-in-Chief: Once again, I'm undertaking a prolonged player-by-player preview of the Blue Jays roster. Granted, it's rather silly. But it provides much needed focus and enthusiasm for the blog, even if only for a fleeting few weeks. 

This is the first of this year's series, and there will be 37 in total, because that seemed appropriate. Though I do wish that our Patron Saint had maybe chosen to wear the uniform number 27, or 14, or maybe 6.  

Let's play ball.

***

Who: Number 32, Esmil Rogers. Right-handed relief pitcher, 27 years old. 6'1", 190 lbs.

Provenance: Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic. Signed as an amateur free agent by the Colorado Rockies in 2003. Acquired by Toronto from Cleveland on November 3, 2012 in exchange for Mike Aviles and Yan Gomes.

Contract Status: Arbitration eligible after this season. No options remaining.

Top Line Numbers: 5.95 ERA, 1.66 WHIP in 237.2 innings over four seasons with Colorado (2009-2012) and Cleveland. 114 games pitched, including 22 starts. 8.1 strikeouts and 4.0 walks per nine innings.

2012 Stats: 4.69 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 83 Ks, 30 BBs in 78.2 innings (67 games) between the Rockies and the Clevelanders.

2012 Repertoire, as per Brooks Baseball: Four seam fastball (96.5 MPH average in 2012) thrown 63% of the time. Also includes a slider (20%, 86 MPH), cutter (8%, 89 MPH) and curveball (7%, 83 MPH).

Injury History: Missed half of 2011 with a right shoulder strain.


Looking Back: Rogers is another converted infielder in the Jays' bullpen, having made the switch from shortstop to pitcher in 2008 while in the Rockies' system. He served as a starter through most of his post-transition development, and advanced on the strength of his velocity and some decent strikeout numbers. By 2009, he was posting impressive numbers with Tulsa in the Double-A Texas League (2.48 ERA, 83 Ks, 19 BBs in 94.1 innings).

Unfortunately, life at a mile-high altitude was as harsh on Rogers as it is on many other pitchers, if not more so. He posted middling numbers at Triple-A Colorado Springs, and in spite of a promotion in late 2009, the Rockies would spend 2010 shifting him from the rotation to the bullpen (28 games, 8 starts) and back to the rotation in the PCL (12 games, 11 starts).

Rogers was plagued by injuries and ineffectiveness in 2011, and was BABIPed into oblivion (.425) last season before the Rockies gave up on him and essentially let Cleveland take him of their hands for nothing more than "cash considerations", i.e. the remainder of his contract for 2012.

What happened after the trade was something of a revelation. Freed from extreme conditions of Coors Field, Rogers' BABIP normalized (.294), and his walk rate dropped from 13.7% to 5.5%. In 53 innings for Cleveland, he posted a 3.06 ERA and struck out 54 batters, his best showing as a professional pitcher since leaving something closer to sea level.

Looking Ahead: Rogers' acquisition will be lost amongst the hullabaloo that ensued over the following two weeks, but this was a canny acquisition by Alex Anthopoulos. If we still care in this day and age in finding undervalued assets, then AA may have plucked a gem out of Ohio.

After reviewing a handful of his outings from last year, it seems as though Rogers gained confidence in throwing strikes after the move. As someone who doesn't typically watch a lot of Rockies' games, you forget how big that ballpark plays, and Rogers' approach in Colorado was an obvious and understandable avoidance of any part of the plate where the ball could be put in play.

In the outings with Cleveland, he threw more strikes and gave up some contact, but his stuff was enough to minimize that contact into foul balls and fly outs. He backed off the curveball and threw a more typical power reliever's mix of fastball/slider, and was helped along by a much better defense backing him.

In a packed bullpen, Rogers will have to impress to keep a spot in the long term, but his lack of options makes it seem certain that he'll at least get the courtesy of a spot on the roster heading north. You don't just give up Yan Gomes and Mike Aviles for nothing, right?

We're probably just a sucker for him, but the feeling here is that Rogers will stick based on merit, and might eventually get into the mix for slots in the later innings. But considering that high leverage innings can happen earlier in games, a reliable reliever with "closer stuff" can make a big difference in putting out fires in the middle innings, helping find the extra few wins that the Jays might need in the end.

Worst-Case Scenario for 2013: Goes back to picking and nibbling, and can't reliably find the strike zone. Jays try to hide him in the bullpen until such a time as they can DFA him without losing him.

Best-Case Scenario for 2013: Emerges to become a big arm at the back of the pen. Locks down middle innings and bails out starters. Eventually moves into the mix for save opportunities. (For whatever that's worth.)