Who really holds the keys?

I have to admit - even I'm getting sick of my subtle (?) pissing and moaning concerning the lack of improvements made to the big league roster this winter, following up on a season full of promise. It's easy to get caught up in the daily talk and innuendo surrounding each and every player available through free agency - or made available via trade.

With the Jays tied to them all and coming home with none, I fell into a solemn state of acceptance that improvements to the big league squad would likely come later rather than sooner. Surely with this young club, the logic went that every step forward is likely to be countered by a step back.

And while every conversation surrounding the team's potential success in 2011 invariably includes some variation of a throwaway line on the re-emergence of Aaron Hill and Adam Lind... have we ever really - I mean, really - considered the potential impact there?

Aaron Hill 2009: .829 OPS (seems like it should have been higher...)
Aaron Hill 2010 : .665 OPS

Adam Lind 2009: .932 OPS
Adam Lind 2010: .712 OPS

Look at those numbers for a moment. The dropoffs are staggering, and it's hard to believe an 85 win team ran those two statlines out for 600 plate appearances each. Begs the simplest of questions:

What in the fuck happened?

While it's fair to say that Lind's 2009 season was his likely high-water mark, a return to .850 seems entirely reasonable. Aaron Hill will likely never hit 36 home runs again, but neither is an OPS hovering around .800 with great defense a reach.

Think about those numbers again & their contributions to the '10 Jays. Now think about the '10 Jays with numbers approaching "reasonable" from each. Of course, nobody expects Jose Bautista to lead the league in home runs and beard growing again (OK, maybe beard growing), but I don't expect just 14 longballs from Travis Snider either. Shaun Marcum's 13 wins and post-game quips won't be easy to replace, but 2011 should see full seasons from Kyle Drabek and New Brandon Morrow.

I suppose what I'm trying to get at here - as awkwardly as ever - is that we don't need the Big Splashy Move to have hope for another step forward for this Jays club.

Stable does not necessarily equal stagnant.

And since I'm here.....Early Season's Greetings
Sincerely wishing every one of you who takes the time to read this page a very safe and happy holiday season. With the Tao off gallivanting (fun word) across the land down under and this dude unlikely to be back until sometime after the 25th, here's hoping you all enjoy the break with those you love.

Happy Holidays, everybody.

Here we go...

(...and before we begin, can we just agree once and for all that the team should revert back to the old logo above? Who would be against this? Look at that thing! It's freaking majestic!)

If the hiring of John Farrell to be The Manager charged with taking this Blue Jays club to the next level (ahem...playoffs!) signified the start of the offseason, Thursday's "option deadline" provided Hotstove fans with the first transaction of the winter...fall...whatever. And while the trade for & subsequent declining of Miguel Olivo's 2011 option hasn't exactly flown under the radar with praise for the move abundant, it's significance cannot be overstated:

These aren't your father's Blue Jays...er, your older brother's Blue Jays....er, you know what I mean.

In a move stunningly brilliant in it's simplicity, Alex Anthopoulos essentially guaranteed his club another supplemental draft pick in the 2011 amateur draft and created more legitimate options at the catching position. The ramifications of the transaction are wide, considering:

* under the supposition that the Jays really are interested (to whatever degree) in re-signing John Buck, when (not if) he declines arbitration - the team is in a win-win position: he signs elsewhere netting a supp pick, or he remains with the team - presumably on their terms given the added leverage.

* if Buck re-signs, Olivo, who we will logically presume will also decline arb in favour of searching out a multi-year deal (at 32, taking a one-year arb offer presents too much risk for The Player) is sure to sign elsewhere, preserving the supplemental pick "forfeited" in bringing back the incumbent, Buck.

* if Buck walks - which I believe he will - the Jays happily scoop the pick and have his potential (one year) replacement in waiting with Olivo, who might not find a better opportunity for playing time elsewhere as he sets up his free agency year with an offer constructed similar to the one Buck agreed to last winter.

Of course, this is all under the assumption that the Jays aren't comfortable going to spring training with JP Arencibia all but handed the starting job. And to be honest, it just doesn't feel like that's the direction the club wants to go. Perhaps it's the memory of JPA collecting dust on Cito's bench that's influencing my opinion here, but I can't shake the feeling that the club isn't sold. Having said that.... Anthopoulos has very openly stated there's nothing left for Arencibia to prove in the minor leagues, meaning....

* he will get consistent at-bats with the Blue Jays in 2011, or

* he will be traded.

Friends, all of the above pontification comes from one minor move. But that's the beauty of the current Jays regime, isn't it? Everything that's done is transacted with an eye towards the next move, or maybe the one after that. Proactive vs Reactive. It's absolutely the way the club needs to be run and is finally being run.

Moving past the ramifications for the 2011 season, the Olivo transaction is hugely symbolic of the Jays' new value system - investing & building through the draft. And once again - pardon me for repeating - it's absolutely the way the club needs to be run. It's no longer about setting up for a season where the Yankees and Red Sox look poised to fall back - though that will always be a consideration - the organization's new & current philosophy is to build a club that is consistently strong and deep enough to challenge on any given year.

It's being Tampa Bay with enough payroll dollars promised by ownership to maintain. While that component remains to be seen, I choose not to be a complete fucking pessimist about it. Toronto will never compete with the Yanks and Sox on payroll dollars, but every voice that matters - from Nadir Mohamed to Handsome Tony Viner to Paul Beeston to Alex Anthopoulos to John Farrell - has relayed the same message: when it's time, the dollars will be there.

No more waiting for a break. Given the strength of the division (and depth of pocket), the Jays will instead look to make their own breaks. Is there a lot of work to be done? Of course. But there's real hope and optimism for the future of the franchise that extends well beyond a few Blue Jay blogs, and that's more than could have been said in many a November past.

It's not that bad

(....but seriously - a Tweet Bag? What the fuck? How am I supposed to follow that? Genius. I'm assuming that gratuitous salty language can only help.)

A funny thing happened to me today. Like, literally today (but maybe not literally "funny". Anyway...). A realization washed over me as I snapped from my pre-season doldrums:

I read too much.

No, it's not like that. I wish I could tell you I've been immersed in the KLaw 100. Sadly, that's not the case: I've been reading too many pre-season forecasts spelling out how the Jays org has gone to shit and a 5th place/90 loss season is in the cards.

Well, fuck all that.

What did anyone expect?

Does nobody remember that the Jays lost 87 last year? That the front office has completely turned over (but not the manager) and payroll stripped down? Oh, and the little matter of (possibly) the best player in franchise history being dealt in the offseason? So why act all surprised and put on fake airs about how disgusted you are with the state of the team? (I'm talking to you - no, at you - fickle Jays fan.)

I'm here to tell you, right now, that it's not that bad. The organization is not in a bad spot. Temporarily, yeah, the Jays might be in line to take some lumps at the hands of the A.L. East Superpowers (makes me feel sick).

That front office shakeup? Bodes well for the future. Yes, the proof is in the proverbial pudding, time will tell, all that cliched bullshit. But so far, it's promising.

Existing stars? We've got a few. Adam Lind and Aaron Hill are cornerstones.

Potential future stars? More than we had a year ago, with Travis Snider, Kyle Drabek, and Brett Wallace either arriving or waiting in the wings.

Shaun Marcum has had an amazing spring of fake games. We couldn't have hoped for better progress from Dustin McGowan. Brandon Morrow and Marc Rzepczynski are showing they want to be rotation stalwarts.

Vernon Wells might even bounce back. Maybe Jose Bautista becomes the new Scutaro. What if J.P. Arencibia plays his way onto the big league club and mashes in Toronto by June? What if some of the other prospects like Stewart, Jenkins, and Sierra blow the goddamned doors off and rocket through the system this year?

Lots could go right. Lots could go wrong. Isn't that why we watch (obsessively)?

Playoffs, baby.

Someday, anyhow. I've got time.

Movin' on (A.D.)

We're an original bunch, aren't we? We all wrote the same melodramatic posts bemoaning our fates, cursing the baseball gods that took Roy Halladay from us. Here now in the aftermath of the deal, we're all writing the post-mortems. I wouldn't blame you if you tuned out right about now, but I do have a point to make.

I'm a bigger fan of the Toronto Blue Jays today than I was a week ago.

Whaaaa? I'm a bigger fan of the Doc-less Jays than of the team fronted by the biggest fucking ace in major league baseball? Well, in a manner of speaking, yeah. I guess I am.

Seems impossible, but it's true. Hell, I probably led the brigade dreading the inevitable transaction - where do you think the "I don't know what I'm gonna do if the Jays trade Doc" tag came from? And that tag is like, a season and a half old. I've been sweating this forever, man. But here we are, on the other side of Armageddon, and I'm OK. We're all OK. And if you're not - kindly feel free to jump the fuck off the train.

This is my team. This is our team. This is the team we all want to see return to glory. It was never going to be easy - with or without Doc. I'm starting to believe in The Plan. When it comes right down to it, we really have no choice but to believe, or risk turning into an even more cynical group of miserable pricks. But no, really, I'm starting to come around. I think I just might be buying what Anthopoulos is selling. Building. Adding to the core. Young players growing - and staying - together.

70 wins in 2010 or not, sign me up for a plate of that. It beats the shit out of 80 wins with Mencherson (God bless 'em) and Millar.

101 Reasons for Offseason Optimism: Vernon Wells. That's right.
Vernon Wells. You heard me.

Look (sorry HTV), forget about the goddamned contract. Wrap all of your thoughts on that matter into a tidy little ball and toss it in the G. It's not going anywhere, he's never going to exercise the opt-out (so save your booing), and it is what it is.

I think Vernon is going to bounce back. Our boy eyebleaf bankrolls that cheerleading brigade, and friends, I'm down. I had originally planned an entire post around this, but, uh, on further investigation, I don't really have a tonne of substance to back my belief. It's just a feeling I have.

Do I think we'll see a monster season, like the one the Jays based his contract on (you would have signed it too, so just stop)? No. Do I think we'll see a reasonable facsimile - a definite improvement over last season's debacle (too strong?)? Yeah, I do. Think .280/.340/.470. An OPS just north of .800. Is that worth $20M per? No, probably not, but Vern seems like a proud guy. He'll bounce back.

Building!

101 Reasons for Offseason Optimism: This week's other transaction

With all of the attention heaped on a certain trade this week, the Jays' acquisition of catcher John Buck was lost in the all of the excitement.

As much as we loved Rod Barajas in spite of ourselves, this move looks like it has the potential to be an upgrade at catcher at a very reasonable $2 million for 2010. Buck's a guy who swings hard and ends up striking out a lot (55 times in 186 ABs versus 13 walks in '09), but he also hits the ball a ton when he makes contact (.484 slugging with 12 doubles and 8 homers in his 59 games last season.) While the swings-from-his-butt description might resemble Barajas on the surface, a look at their slash lines over the last couple of years shows at least some distinction:

Barajas '08-'09 - .275 OBP / .406 SLG / .681 OPS (in 229 games)
Buck '08-'09 - .302 OBP / .405 SLG / .707 OPS (in 168 games)

Parsing through the distinction between the two, it seems as though Barajas will manage a few additional dribblers through the infield while Buck will keep the bat on his shoulder once a week or so. So, you know, no big whoop. The big distinction that we can draw between the two is that Buck is almost five years younger and we much prefer the look of Buck's swing (as you can observe in this video of him at some baseball academy).

And this probably isn't worth much, but Buck raked like a mofo in one of our old MLB 2K games. Which shouldn't put him over the top in our mind, otherwise, I'd be advocating for a J.D. Closser multiyear signing. Still, we're calling this an upgrade.

(You hear that, you cynical smarmy sarcastic heathens? The Jays got better at a key position! Building!)

Cliff Lee's not bitter
Went to that thanksroy.com page, which has already been infiltrated by the merchants of mirth. In particular, I enjoyed this comment from someone on their way to the rainy coast:

101 Reasons for Offseason Optimism - Brian Dopirak

Did you see that the Jays added Brian Dopirak to their 40-man roster? Can you get excited about the prospect of an aging prospect (25 years young) who can put up some serious numbers (27 HRs, 102 RBI, .921 OPS between Double-A and Triple-A last year)?

We can. And we can also envision a scenario where Dopirak plays on the big club, and doesn't suck. And that's a good thing. Especially if the Jays are going to let go of their woefully under appreciated first baseman.

Don't get all negative about my negativity
We've been accused lately of being a bit of a grumpy Gus about the Jays and the decisions made in the past few weeks. Somehow, people are reading some degree of negativity into our lack of faith in Alex and the Ants and what in our view amounts to an underwhelming start.

Part of this we'll confess is for fun: We know that we're being impatient. But the idea of a blog post per day telling people to just hold out hope for a few more weeks (or a few more years) doesn't exactly inspire us to start tickety-ticking away on the keyboard. And we're not here to cheer you up.

Look, we're pulling for AA to rip it up and pull together a wicked awesome franchise. And we've actually got some faith that they'll be able to do it, except for two things.

1) Bringing back Cito is a kick in the nuts, and we're not going to get happy about this decision until he's gone.

2) AA's press conference last week was a pretty clear indication that this team has no intention of spending anytime soon. Nor do they feel any particular urgency in competing any time soon. The road is long, with many a winding turn, and all that sort of thing.

We recognize that these are still early days, in the newish regime. But we'll confess that like many other Jays fans, our patience is wearing pretty thin. Not that I'm going to leap off the bandwagon and find some other team to cheer for. But I'm not in much of a mood to indulge the young Mr. Anthopoulos and his doddering benefactor.

The Eternal Building Process might sound like a wholly rational plan. But it doesn't give us the giddy offseason excitement that a few interesting moves might. And at a certain point, this is a business that is about creating excitement and inspiring a dedicated fan base. Planning for the future is prudent, but don't expect your fan base to tag along as you meander back at your own pace to respectability.

Yes, the Tao is impatient.