tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2484762138483195409.post3659072469403074971..comments2023-12-15T07:22:02.492-05:00Comments on The Tao of Stieb: The dominoes begin to fallTao of Stiebhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12459135109404905466noreply@blogger.comBlogger32125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2484762138483195409.post-43677841728600000522010-12-07T21:00:08.101-05:002010-12-07T21:00:08.101-05:00It's a bit hard to see the team deal their ope...It's a bit hard to see the team deal their opening day starter for the second straight year. <br /><br />That said, this shouldn't come as a surprise after seeing Anthopoulos deal his MLB-ready first baseman of the future for a guy who likely won't reach the majors for another 2-3 years. We'll see what happens the rest of the way, but to me, it looks like AA is still working towards building a perennial contender by acquiring cheap, young talents who could one day turn out to be elite major league players. <br /><br />I have to think that nobody has a better sense of what Marcum's long-term worth to the franchise was, and if AA sees him as a player that isn't likely to be retained beyond 2012, then I think he did well to cash in now and get a player who hopefully will be close to ready a few years from now, rather than getting a package of prospects that might make an impact in 2014 or 2015 in a trade somewhere down the line.<br /><br />Just because the team was a pleasant surprise and won 85 games in 2010 doesn't make it reasonable to expect the same amount of growth in 2011, and assume that the team is only a player or two away from winning 95+ games and making a serious run at the playoffs.Andrewnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2484762138483195409.post-10054842616947746122010-12-07T12:03:52.521-05:002010-12-07T12:03:52.521-05:00The "selling high" point is a good one. ...The "selling high" point is a good one. Fans always want teams to sell high, and then complain when they do, because it's easy to get blinded by a guy's shiny stats and think the player is suddenly a star. If I were to put money on it, I'd bet that Marcum was better in 2010 than he would've been in '11 or '12 in Toronto, simply because of regression to the mean.Xavehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02022018585958713893noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2484762138483195409.post-71550898430423708282010-12-07T11:59:19.485-05:002010-12-07T11:59:19.485-05:00Bkblades your point is a good one, but how many &q...Bkblades your point is a good one, but how many "highly touted prospects" have we seen fall through the cracks in, say the last decade. Prospects are a gamble, and as Ice Cream Jonsey correctly points out, with the expanded playoff format on the horizon, now would be the time to retain some of your best players and try to get into the post season in the next 2-3 years. That's all this team needs to revitalize its fanbase, because right now, the interest in this team is abysmal. There is no way that the 4th largest sports market in North America should be second last in attendance in the AL, regardless of the TV numbers (and that's up for debate also). By trading arguably your most consistent starter for a "maybe", the message your sending to the casual fan is not a positive one. People are getting tired of every spring training, the news coming out of Dunedin inevitably degenerating into we're not quite ready to compete.Hurleynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2484762138483195409.post-67616732638012649122010-12-07T02:48:48.415-05:002010-12-07T02:48:48.415-05:00It seems clear to me that the somewhat unexpected ...It seems clear to me that the somewhat unexpected 85 wins last season is hampering AA's perspective and ultimate vision to be a perennial contender. <br /><br />If fans are convinced the Blue Jays are this close to being World Series contenders, then yes, trading Marcum (and seeing this trade in a vacuum) makes this team weaker. <br /><br />However, if you're under the thought process that the Blue Jays would be hard-pressed to make the playoffs next season, let alone exceed 85 wins again, then trading a 29 year old pitcher at likely his peak for a highly touted infielder prospect (a position the Blue Jays aren't particularly deep right now) for 2012 and beyond makes sense.bkbladeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14993067848904779017noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2484762138483195409.post-15572635277421859182010-12-07T00:21:47.774-05:002010-12-07T00:21:47.774-05:00Anon 10:19, if by 'optimistic' you mean &#...Anon 10:19, if by 'optimistic' you mean 'totally unrealistic and based on nothing at all', then yes, that's right.Tyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11878921441543129555noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2484762138483195409.post-27555542202463531872010-12-06T22:09:37.138-05:002010-12-06T22:09:37.138-05:00whether marcum is at his peak now or not is irrele...whether marcum is at his peak now or not is irrelevant (if he got off to a start next year like he did in 08 what do you think his value would be at the deadline?) the question is should you be trading players with marcum's value for 1 player who won't help you before 2014 in the most optimistic scenario.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2484762138483195409.post-87741837500083202212010-12-06T19:27:56.285-05:002010-12-06T19:27:56.285-05:00re: not wanting to offer Marcum an extension - tha...re: not wanting to offer Marcum an extension - that actually seems reasonable to me, assuming Marcum wanted big dollars/big years. <br /><br />Romero is already locked up, and Cecil, Morrow, RZep, Drabek, Stewart are all either MLB ready or on the verge, with another slew of arms coming down the line (as unpredictable as young arms may be). <br /><br />Much as I love Marcum, last year was probably his peak & he probably doesn't have the "ceiling" many of those other guys have....which is the new front office MO, it seems.The Ackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12374953233006854310noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2484762138483195409.post-88513541384145210632010-12-06T19:14:20.094-05:002010-12-06T19:14:20.094-05:00How you trade Marcum with expanded playoffs coming...How you trade Marcum with expanded playoffs coming is beyond me. That will never make sense to me. The timetable <i>has</i> been pushed back, and it's ridiculous. I can't see this as anything other than Rogers being too cheap to knock Marcum's socks off with an extension. <br /><br />(Whoops, I keep forgetting. The "money will be there.")Ice Cream Jonseyhttp://www.caltrops.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2484762138483195409.post-72502398934782064662010-12-06T18:55:42.403-05:002010-12-06T18:55:42.403-05:00I have to agree with anonymous at 346 pm...the jay...I have to agree with anonymous at 346 pm...the jays have been close for about 3 years now...with 1 gaping hole which they 'refused' to fill--- a lefty decent hitting slugger at 1b or dh...someone eerily like adam laroche...similarly, this upcoming year, the jays were poised for wild card contention---missing a 1b, dh type like laroche...or even a johnny damon as dh addition.<br />so unless the marcum deal is a precursor for something bigger (i.e greinke), this looks like a very big mistake...all based on some supposition that the jays aren't ready in 2011...the jays were ready in 08 with doc and aj on the mound, they were ready in 09 with lind and hill having mvp type seasons, they were ready last year...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2484762138483195409.post-80278325096398094862010-12-06T18:34:48.676-05:002010-12-06T18:34:48.676-05:00i hope lawrie can be a great player, and maybe he ...i hope lawrie can be a great player, and maybe he will be, but if it takes 4 years to happen then this trade was not worth it<br /><br />i'd like to see the long list of prospects who were defensively questionable with a sub 800 OPS, without a lot of power in aa who 2 years later were solid major leaguers - please show me that listAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2484762138483195409.post-31113764148606692532010-12-06T16:08:42.307-05:002010-12-06T16:08:42.307-05:00I'm not so sure about this trade....I'm not so sure about this trade....gsumnernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2484762138483195409.post-23106151313275325872010-12-06T15:46:58.155-05:002010-12-06T15:46:58.155-05:00Way to go AA, wouldn't want to break that stre...Way to go AA, wouldn't want to break that streak of 17 straight years without a playoff sniff. I can't wait until 2015 when we're ready to compete, then when that doesn't happen, I can wait until 2018, yeah, that will be the year.<br /><br />I guess when a team wins 85 games in the AL East, they clearly aren't anywhere close, and they might as well just dump salary so they can get that annual payroll below 70 million. Rogers clearly has to be concerned with cost effectiveness otherwise, how in the world would they be able to make a 1.3 billion dollar MLSE bid.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2484762138483195409.post-80810670641856146812010-12-06T13:56:02.077-05:002010-12-06T13:56:02.077-05:00Some thoughts:
1) In response to "How did th...Some thoughts:<br /><br />1) In response to "How did the Jays sell high". I believe Marcum has more value right now than he ever would have, had the Jays kept him. Partially because the closer he gets to becoming a free agent the more he's deemed a rental player, the risk of further injury, and the likelihood that he will repeat the success (as a Jay) that he had in 2010. I do think he will dominate in Milwaukee though.<br /><br />2) As someone that kept telling everyone that Brett Wallace isn't as good as you think, I believe the opposite to be true for Lawrie. I believe that Lawrie is now the Jays best prospect, yes better than Arencibia, Drabek, Stewart, etc., and don't think there was ever a chance the Jays could get a better prospect in return for Marcum. Lawrie is a STUD! Book it!Peter DeMarcohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13025682416268680287noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2484762138483195409.post-55767705124733641892010-12-06T13:31:36.925-05:002010-12-06T13:31:36.925-05:00Remember, this is the guy the Jays wanted to draft...Remember, this is the guy the Jays wanted to draft in 2008 but the Brewers took him just ahead 16th overall (Jays had the 17th pick). Alex was the scouting director (or something) at the time - presumably, he knows a lot about this guy; I'll trust his judgement on this one.Tyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11878921441543129555noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2484762138483195409.post-19542466010740371312010-12-06T13:04:26.064-05:002010-12-06T13:04:26.064-05:00Couple more thoughts:
(a) I think folks are under...Couple more thoughts:<br /><br />(a) I think folks are underestimating the value as a prospect Brett Lawrie holds. Like Tao pointed out, he was among the youngest players in AA, and OPS'd near .800. Defense questions are concerning, though.<br /><br />(b) I think folks are <i>really</i> underestimating the ability of Greinke to say that he wouldn't be much of an upgrade over Marcum, much as I love the guy. <br /><br />(c) ....let's just see how the rest of the week (or offseason) plays out before rushing to judgment on this one & what it means for 2011.The Ackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12374953233006854310noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2484762138483195409.post-64474978416202260942010-12-06T12:57:45.587-05:002010-12-06T12:57:45.587-05:00Is AA falling into the trap of constantly trading ...Is AA falling into the trap of constantly trading for the future? I knew Marcum was trade bait but I was hoping we'd get a ML ready position player to fill one of our holes. Or like people have said, get a couple prospects back. <br /><br />I guess minor league production isn't the end all but guys like Gose and Lawrie who scouts may like but haven't produced, scare the crap out of me, especially when we give up ML ready guys for them alone.<br /><br />Maybe I'm just getting jumpy.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2484762138483195409.post-65155290629937183252010-12-06T12:54:50.384-05:002010-12-06T12:54:50.384-05:00trading marcum for more/better prospects makes sen...trading marcum for more/better prospects makes sense. trading marcum for this 1 prospect makes no sense. just hold onto him until the trade deadline and then get something really good probably.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2484762138483195409.post-22788988180848172342010-12-06T12:50:30.419-05:002010-12-06T12:50:30.419-05:00trading Marcum for a prospect makes sense if you s...trading Marcum for a prospect makes sense if you see yourself two years (or more) away from competing. Marcum would have contributed well to the team's chances of winning during his two remaining controllable years.<br /><br />if that's the case then it's a little disappointing to the fan base that saw 85 wins and thought the team would look to improve on that in 2011. if there is no other shoe to drop this off season then it looks like the team is still rebuilding.MJKhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16655511182506995468noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2484762138483195409.post-19873118560608542132010-12-06T12:48:48.851-05:002010-12-06T12:48:48.851-05:00if this trade somehow leads to the jays getting gr...if this trade somehow leads to the jays getting greinke without things getting too painful then great i guess. i just don't see how greinke is necessarily going to be any better than marcum over the next 2 seasons, he wasn't very good last year.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2484762138483195409.post-58122320221099699622010-12-06T12:40:16.522-05:002010-12-06T12:40:16.522-05:00Log into the ol' site and see I've become ...Log into the ol' site and see I've become persona non-grata. What the hell, art may as well imitate life.<br /><br />Really though, I've been expecting one of Marcum/Cecil to be moved for some time now....and quite frankly, thought it would be Cecil (& probably would have preferred, if backed into a corner). <br /><br />Was the return enough? Yeah, probably. Does it push back "the timetable"? I think we need to withold judgement on that one. I just don't see this as a "stand alone" type of transaction.<br /><br />Loathe as I'd be to see Snider traded - I'd deem him as "untouchable" as anyone on the roster/in the system - the Halladay trade has prepared me for anything. And I hear that Greinke can pitch a little.The Ackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12374953233006854310noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2484762138483195409.post-79594099353441208852010-12-06T12:33:36.562-05:002010-12-06T12:33:36.562-05:002012? that's a hell of a projection. snider st...2012? that's a hell of a projection. snider still isn't an everyday player, and he raked like a mf'r at every level.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2484762138483195409.post-59341379144865321102010-12-06T12:28:41.944-05:002010-12-06T12:28:41.944-05:00Seriously: Let's not set Lawrie's time tab...Seriously: Let's not set Lawrie's time table for 2017 just because Jeff Kent took a while to develop. <br /><br />Lawrie should be an everyday MLBer by 2012. Jays have enough to get them through next year without him.Tao of Stiebhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12459135109404905466noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2484762138483195409.post-82438473405245180132010-12-06T12:20:13.737-05:002010-12-06T12:20:13.737-05:00that will help them compete for the coveted "...that will help them compete for the coveted "Baseball America best Minor League Organization" trophy, but what does lawrie do for the team next season or even likely 2 seasons from now. he might turn out to be fantastic 5 years from now, it took kent what till he was 27? but that's an awful long time to wait when they should have been able to turn marcum into something really useful now.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2484762138483195409.post-63987827812819125192010-12-06T12:18:53.000-05:002010-12-06T12:18:53.000-05:00It's hard to lose Marcum as he was great in 20...It's hard to lose Marcum as he was great in 2010. But he did not fare well against the Red Sox, Yankees and Bay Rays and you have to win in your own division. Lawrie is a great prospect (bonus: Canadian) who, if he can get his act together, can be terrific for the Blue Jays. Only 8 homers but 36 doubles and double-digit triples to go along with 30 stolen bases.William J. Taskerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02313204947130235560noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2484762138483195409.post-33607935993127068342010-12-06T12:10:08.889-05:002010-12-06T12:10:08.889-05:00Let's not underestimate what Toronto got for M...Let's not underestimate what Toronto got for Marcum. They sent Marcum and got back a team's putative number 1 prospect. That's not bad.Tao of Stiebhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12459135109404905466noreply@blogger.com