tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2484762138483195409.post726886775973132611..comments2023-12-15T07:22:02.492-05:00Comments on The Tao of Stieb: Who says there's no "#1"?Tao of Stiebhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12459135109404905466noreply@blogger.comBlogger33125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2484762138483195409.post-24522418504770878052010-10-05T00:06:33.003-04:002010-10-05T00:06:33.003-04:00I am doing research for my college paper, thanks f...I am doing research for my college paper, thanks for your excellent points, now I am acting on a sudden impulse.<br /><br />- LauraAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2484762138483195409.post-45092379644779831952010-08-03T15:01:29.626-04:002010-08-03T15:01:29.626-04:00I wonder what Law was saying about Doc when he was...I wonder what Law was saying about Doc when he was sent down to double-A. Seeing as Law was "special assistant to the GM" during that period, do you think maybe he would own some of that record? He had a shot to bring his baseball acumen to the real world, but I guess he blew it.<br /><br />If Law had AA's job, he probably wouldn't have made the Yunel Escobar trade --seeing as he sees him as "declining."<br /><br />I don't blame Buck for not being interested in KLaw's latest cynical salvo.Darren Priesthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04577092117174508443noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2484762138483195409.post-43126671300365107962010-08-03T13:57:31.575-04:002010-08-03T13:57:31.575-04:00@mike pretty sure Law's tenure with the Jays e...<i>@mike pretty sure Law's tenure with the Jays ended acrimoniously. Since then, I can't recall Law having a single positive thing to say about the organization. That's probably why the Bobcat keeps bringing him back.</i><br /><br />To be fair, he's said some positive things in chats about Snider and Doc, and he's pretty critical about every team. <br /><br />However, the Jays' highest win total has been 87 the past decade, and the best finish has been second in 2006, when they were still 10 games back of the Yankees. I'm not sure why his negativity would be unwarranted.<br /><br />And IIRC, Buck Martinez hates Law and the other stats guys the Jays had around because of his time managing. I believe it is one-sided, but I don't have time to look up the chat archive when Law discussed it.Steve G.https://www.blogger.com/profile/12021363760202667755noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2484762138483195409.post-76236578855435234592010-08-03T12:55:05.359-04:002010-08-03T12:55:05.359-04:00Yes, it's not very Christian of him to react t...Yes, it's not very Christian of him to react that way to KLaw. He should want to hear more of what Keith Law has to say. That's the role of the manager -- current or former.Darren Priesthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04577092117174508443noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2484762138483195409.post-61109347711093057512010-08-03T12:37:45.334-04:002010-08-03T12:37:45.334-04:00pretty sure Law's tenure with the Jays ended a...<i>pretty sure Law's tenure with the Jays ended acrimoniously.</i><br /><br />that doesn't really explain why Buck has his own issues with Law. i believe the quote was "i don't want to hear anything Keith Law has to say."<br /><br />Martinez's cheerleading for Cito's handling of the bullpen and Gregg in particular was embarrassing. this is more of the same piggish "no criticism is to be tolerated" attitude. it betrays some pretty thin skin, probably due to his own short tenure as manager.<br /><br />i really wish they would put Ashby with him for a week ...MJKhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16655511182506995468noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2484762138483195409.post-45852432493450730822010-08-03T12:30:29.598-04:002010-08-03T12:30:29.598-04:00Great discussion, guys. While I agree that pitcher...Great discussion, guys. While I agree that pitchers who control their input are more likely to consistently produce good outputs, I disagree about high K rates being the best indicator. Aren't K/BB or WHIP much better? <br /><br />Also, it's been shown that fastballs are the most common out pitch or swing and miss pitch, however I think that effect is exponentially greater if the pitcher has great secondary stuff. It's the difference between AJ Burnett and Adam Wainwright, both have killer curves, but the latter has a killer slider too plus a change. Right now, Drabek has that same fastball-curve combo as Burnett but Drabek has better control than Burnett did in the minors. Even though Burnett had the better K-rates in the minors, I'll take the control and hope that Drabek develops a good enough changeup, which will make his fastball more effective.SPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15861389212599241745noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2484762138483195409.post-37308078467219213022010-08-03T11:24:44.059-04:002010-08-03T11:24:44.059-04:00@mike pretty sure Law's tenure with the Jays e...@mike pretty sure Law's tenure with the Jays ended acrimoniously. Since then, I can't recall Law having a single positive thing to say about the organization. That's probably why the Bobcat keeps bringing him back.<br /><br />I'm sure the Toronto sports media will be quick to jump on the bandwagon when the team is closer to contending. Right now, the safe bet is to shit all over the team and it would seem professional sports media members like to be right.<br /><br />Asking KLaw about the Jays is like asking Jennifer Aniston about Angelina Jolie.Darren Priesthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04577092117174508443noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2484762138483195409.post-65027414765592652702010-08-03T10:51:04.225-04:002010-08-03T10:51:04.225-04:00just listened to Buck Martinez's interview on ...just listened to Buck Martinez's interview on PTS. He had some pretty nasty things to say about Law. I wonder what that's all about.MJKhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16655511182506995468noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2484762138483195409.post-43381824059299915792010-08-03T10:50:21.296-04:002010-08-03T10:50:21.296-04:00Enjoyable read, thanks guys.Enjoyable read, thanks guys.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2484762138483195409.post-87105394979217421232010-08-03T10:46:05.466-04:002010-08-03T10:46:05.466-04:00One should bear in mind that any of Keith Law'...One should bear in mind that any of Keith Law's comments concerning the Jays should be taken with a grain of salt. He isn't exactly the poster boy for objective analysis, which is somewhat understandable given his history with the team.Parkerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10032630500956093231noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2484762138483195409.post-66022430445884705482010-08-03T09:35:42.471-04:002010-08-03T09:35:42.471-04:00^^ yes - fantastic.^^ yes - fantastic.The Ackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12374953233006854310noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2484762138483195409.post-9015027368242445952010-08-03T08:21:35.495-04:002010-08-03T08:21:35.495-04:00This was one post where the comments were almost a...This was one post where the comments were almost as interesting as the post itself. Way to go guys.William J. Taskerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02313204947130235560noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2484762138483195409.post-15590368766666302032010-08-02T23:10:27.591-04:002010-08-02T23:10:27.591-04:00Fun challenge Steve, and with baseball-reference a...Fun challenge Steve, and with baseball-reference as my friend here it is. 1st number is k/9, second is BB/9, all minor league numbers:<br /><br />Drabek 7.3/3.3<br />Halladay's 5.9/2.9<br />Maddux 7.2/2.7<br />Tom Glavine -/4.2<br />Andy Pettite 7.3/2.5<br />Kevin Brown -/3.6<br />Kevin Appier -/3.0<br />Mark Buehrle 6.6/1.4<br />Cliff Lee 10.1/4.2<br />Doug Drabek -/3.3<br /><br />Some interesting stuff. K/9 unavailable for the older guys, but those whose numbers were there pretty similar to Drabek (with the exception of Cliff Lee). <br /><br />BB/9, again pretty similar with the exception of Buehrle. Most guys lowered their BB/9 significantly when the reached the majors (usually by about 1). Looking through some other pitchers dropping walks once reaching the majors does not seem unusual. But I can't be sure if it means they make the majors because they drop their BB/9 or if BB/9 naturally drops as these players mature. Likely a combination of the 2.<br /><br />Anyways, that was fun. I still argue that there's nothing about Drabek's numbers that mean he can't be great. Having never seen him pitch, and not being a major league scout, I can't say that he will, but the same would go for the other people making judgements.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2484762138483195409.post-56128026552175131902010-08-02T22:42:18.644-04:002010-08-02T22:42:18.644-04:00@Steve G.
All I can say is it looks like our retu...@Steve G.<br /><br />All I can say is it looks like our return on Doc is better than what we got for Cone or Clemens...so far.Tim in Londonnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2484762138483195409.post-38820701584868807812010-08-02T22:37:37.181-04:002010-08-02T22:37:37.181-04:00For fun on the other side of things, guys with hig...For fun on the other side of things, guys with high K/9 who weren't #1 guys:<br /><br />Hideo Nomo 8.73<br />Kelvim Escobar 7.82<br />Darren Driefort 8.3<br />Ryan Dempster 7.7<br />Robert Person 7.8<br />Matt Clement 7.8<br />John Maine 7.6<br />Ted Lilly 7.7<br />Brandon Morrow 9.5<br /><br />Now, I'm not saying these were/are bad pitchers. You have to have some level of talent to strikeout big league hitters. But, just that a high K/9 does not make a #1 starter on its own. Nor does a lower K/9 keep a player from being a #1.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2484762138483195409.post-41376872029179251062010-08-02T22:26:55.807-04:002010-08-02T22:26:55.807-04:00They did it in the major; Drabek's rate is pro...They did it in the major; Drabek's rate is probably going to decay as he climbs up the ladder. He also doesn't have their freakish control, since most of the guys you listed don't walk people at all. And even among that narrow band, the guys with the higher K/9 tend to have higher peaks than Buerle, Moyer and Glavine.Steve G.https://www.blogger.com/profile/12021363760202667755noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2484762138483195409.post-15337829185301491012010-08-02T21:51:33.151-04:002010-08-02T21:51:33.151-04:00Roy Halladay's career K/9 is 6.67.
Greg Maddux...Roy Halladay's career K/9 is 6.67.<br />Greg Maddux 6.05<br />Tom Glavine 5.31<br />Andy Pettite 6.63<br />Jamie Moyer (just for fun) 5.38<br />Kevin Brown 6.63<br />Kevin Appier 6.91<br />Mark Buerle 5.12<br />Cliff Lee 6.82<br />Doug Drabek 5.66<br /><br />Everyone one of those pitchers (with the possible exception of Moyer, but I wanted to see his number) have been definite #1, Cy Young calibre pitchers, with K/9 very similar to what Kyle Drabek's doing. Good pitchers just get the job done.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2484762138483195409.post-39382305108700915992010-08-02T16:53:38.588-04:002010-08-02T16:53:38.588-04:00Yes he ranks 47th among all pitchers, but how many...Yes he ranks 47th among all pitchers, but how many of the guys ahead of him are starters? <br />Also you say that guys with great K rates tend to be hall of fame/superstar type pitchers but the flip side of that is that there are also plenty of great pitchers that never attain that K rate. <br />We may have to agree to disagree on this one but I don't think that with the defense being assembled behind these guys that you really need to worry about pitching to contact.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2484762138483195409.post-84678730530280507072010-08-02T16:35:40.228-04:002010-08-02T16:35:40.228-04:00Sure, kill a guy for making a typo ;)
BABIP fluc...Sure, kill a guy for making a typo ;) <br /><br />BABIP fluctuates quite a bit for pitchers, so pitchers ideally want to strike out as many guys as possible. Nick Blackburn doesn't strike out anyone, and as a result, he's in Rochester right now. It's hard to find consistently elite pitchers who doesn't strike out a ton of guys. Sure, you need to have control too, but the career leaderboard of K/9 guys has folks like Randy Johnson, Kerry Wood, Pedro, Nolan Ryan, Trevor Hoffman and Sandy Koufax on it, 1 through 6. (#7 is Oliver Perez; neither he nor batters know where his pitches are going.)<br /><br />Right now, Drabek is at 6.82 K/9. I whipped up a quick spreadsheet, limiting it to Eastern League pitchers with at least 50 innings, and he ranks 47th. (For what it's worth, Kelly is 17th.) Most guys lose strikeouts as they go to the majors.<br /><br />So yeah, I'd find Drabek's K-rate mildly concerning, and it would make me downgrade his peak from #1 starter / consistent all-star to more of what the Jays have now - a bunch of average starters. The Twins have proven you can win with those kind of guys though, provided your lineup is strong enough.Steve G.https://www.blogger.com/profile/12021363760202667755noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2484762138483195409.post-22249865309001048312010-08-02T16:05:31.724-04:002010-08-02T16:05:31.724-04:00Hey Steve G hate to get all nit-picky but I am cur...Hey Steve G hate to get all nit-picky but I am curious how a "picture" can control it's own destiny. <br />BABIP really shouldn't fluctuate all that much year to year for a PITCHER. Yes it is more dependent on defense and luck but it also will generally average out in the majors to somewhere between .290 and .300. If it falls outside that range you can usually find a reason. <br />I will agree that Drabek does need to limit his walks but again reiterate that his stats this year shouldn't be used to downgrade him as a prospect.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2484762138483195409.post-89967516113282820062010-08-02T14:49:28.363-04:002010-08-02T14:49:28.363-04:00@ Ack - Although I'm a Red Sox fan, I'm no...@ Ack - Although I'm a Red Sox fan, I'm not a Red Sox homer. After this year, I think Kelly's peak is more #2 or #3 starter, although as you point out he is pretty young and new to pitching.<br /><br />@ Mark - I agree with Mike in Boston. Also, I think the value of exposing a player to AAA is far less now, since AAA serves mostly as a travel team for Major League injury replacements now as opposed to a place where guys develop.<br /><br />@ Anonymous - Strikeouts per nine is important because batting average on balls in play tends to fluctuate from year to year. Therefore, it's more valuable to have pictures who can control their own destiny by limiting walks and strikeouts than who rely on fielders.Steve G.https://www.blogger.com/profile/12021363760202667755noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2484762138483195409.post-11123085831343139682010-08-02T13:05:18.629-04:002010-08-02T13:05:18.629-04:00Re: Bautista/Latinos
http://www.youtube.com/watch...Re: Bautista/Latinos<br /><br />http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zxobIwrqa5U#t=8m14sdavehttp://twitter.com/dlbrowsnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2484762138483195409.post-73553157150689987362010-08-02T11:53:15.839-04:002010-08-02T11:53:15.839-04:00in reply to Mark, on skipping AAA
i think with ba...in reply to <b>Mark</b>, on skipping AAA<br /><br />i think with batters the thought is that they'll see a lot junkball pitchers in AAA so it's sometimes best not to mess up their swings.<br /><br />with pitchers the thought is that the PCL turns flyballs into HRs and this can cause pitchers to make unnecessary adjustments which then need to be undone at the ML level. <br /><br />i'm not sure you can project BB rates at the ML level based on the AA results. different defense, different catcher, etc. i'd be happy to see him get a chance in spring training to win a rotation job and then be the 1st guy to get called up from AAA if he doesn't make the team outright.MJKhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16655511182506995468noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2484762138483195409.post-41161588550050728272010-08-02T11:40:32.215-04:002010-08-02T11:40:32.215-04:00Don't agree with the thought of skipping AAA. ...Don't agree with the thought of skipping AAA. Someone actually asked Sickels if he thought Drabek/Collins (RIP) should skip AAA because of the environment, and he was totally against it. Said the different levels teach different things, and it's generally not a good idea for players to skip AA or AAA.<br /><br />If Drabek is having problems with walks in AA, he definitely needs AAA, where batters are more selective. He'd give up 5-6 right now in MLB.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07307566844751295402noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2484762138483195409.post-33481124346566998142010-08-02T11:33:57.036-04:002010-08-02T11:33:57.036-04:00y'know, I had a rebuttal (to steve g) comment ...y'know, I had a rebuttal (to steve g) comment all lined up concerning The Untouchable Casey Kelly, Esquire, and the fact that he's never reached the 9K/9 mark at any minor league level - and still always designated as a future #1 .....but he's always been young for the league he's pitching in, so left it alone.The Ackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12374953233006854310noreply@blogger.com